Searched for: author%3A%22Kwakkel%2C+J.H.%22
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Moallemi, Enayat A. (author), Zare, Fateme (author), Hebinck, Aniek (author), Szetey, Katrina (author), Molina-Perez, Edmundo (author), Zyngier, Romy L. (author), Hadjikakou, Michalis (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Haasnoot, Marjolijn (author)
Decision-making under uncertainty is important for managing human-natural systems in a changing world. A major source of uncertainty is linked to the multi-actor settings of decisions with poorly understood values, complex relationships, and conflicting management approaches. Despite general agreement across disciplines on co-producing knowledge...
journal article 2023
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Steffelbauer, D.B. (author), Riva, R.E.M. (author), Timmermans, Jos (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Bakker, M. (author)
Global mean sea-level rise (SLR) has accelerated since 1900 from less than 2 mm yr-1 during most of the century to more than 3 mm yr-1 since 1993. Decision-makers in coastal countries, however, require information on SLR at the regional scale, where detection of an acceleration in SLR is difficult, because the long-term sea-level signal is...
journal article 2022
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Jafino, B.A. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Klijn, F. (author)
To support equitable adaptation planning, quantitative assessments should consider the fairness of the distribution of outcomes to different people. What constitutes a fair distribution, however, is a normative question. In this study, we explore the use of different moral principles drawn from theories of distributive justice to evaluate...
journal article 2022
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Moallemi, Enayat A. (author), Eker, Sibel (author), Gao, Lei (author), Hadjikakou, Michalis (author), Liu, Qi (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Reed, Patrick M. (author), Obersteiner, Michael (author), Guo, Zhaoxia (author), Bryan, Brett A. (author)
Progress to date toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has fallen short of expectations and is unlikely to fully meet 2030 targets. Past assessments have mostly focused on short- and medium-term evaluations, thus limiting the ability to explore the longer-term effects of systemic interactions with time lags and delay. Here we undertake...
journal article 2022
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Zatarain Salazar, J. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Witvliet, Mark (author)
Efficient multi-purpose reservoir control policies are crucial in the face of frequent and severe floods and droughts, and to balance water allocation across conflicting demands. Evolutionary Multi-Objective Direct Policy Search (EMODPS) is a popular approach to design control policies for multi-purpose reservoir systems. EMODPS, however, relies...
journal article 2022
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Ciullo, A. (author), Domeneghetti, A. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), De Bruijn, K. M. (author), Klijn, F. (author), Castellarin, A. (author)
Robust Decision Making (RDM) is an established framework for decision making under deep uncertainty. RDM relies on the idea of scenario neutrality, namely that decision robustness is not affected by how scenarios are generated if these are uniformly distributed and span a sufficiently large range of future states of the world. Several authors...
journal article 2022
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Teodoro Morales, J.D. (author), Doorn, N. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Comes, M. (author)
To adapt to a changing climate, decision-makers design, evaluate, and implement measures that have an implication of justice on citizens in the present and well into the future. Decision-makers are often required to make decisions without certainty of the consequences and understanding their effects on intergenerational justice. Thus, managing...
journal article 2022
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Scholte, Mirre (author), Marchau, V.A.W.J. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Klijn, Catharina J.M. (author), Rovers, Maroeska M. (author), Grutters, Janneke P.C. (author)
Objectives: In early stages, the consequences of innovations are often unknown or deeply uncertain, which complicates early health economic modeling (EHEM). The field of decision making under deep uncertainty uses exploratory modeling (EM) in situations when the system model, input probabilities/distributions, and consequences are unknown or...
journal article 2022
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van Schilt, Isabelle M. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Mense, Jelte P. (author), Verbraeck, A. (author)
COVID-19 related crimes like counterfeit Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) involve complex supply chains with partly unobservable behavior and sparse data, making it challenging to construct a reliable simulation model. Model calibration can help with this, as it is the process of tuning and estimating the model parameters with observed data...
conference paper 2022
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Oehmen, Josef (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
Uncertainty is the third major perspective in understanding and designing engineering systems, along with complexity and human behaviour. Risk, a corollary of uncertainty, is understood as the effect of uncertainty on objectives. When designing engineering systems, you cannot not manage risk - even ignoring risk equates to a decision to accept...
book chapter 2022
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Yalew, S.G. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Zatarain Salazar, J. (author), Doorn, N. (author)
Justice in the allocation and distribution of water is one of the most recent topics in the water resources management literature. This topic, i.e., justice/equity/fairness, is especially noteworthy in integrated water resources management where competing needs, sectors, and societal segments are involved in the utilization of water. Although...
abstract 2022
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Enserink, B. (author), Bots, P.W.G. (author), van Daalen, C. (author), Hermans, L.M. (author), Kortmann, Rens (author), Koppenjan, Joop (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Ruijgh-van der Ploeg, M.P.M. (author), Slinger, J (author), Thissen, W.A.H. (author)
Policy of Multi-Actor Systems is an introduction into the art of craft of problem exploration and problem structuring. It positions policy analysis as a scientific discipline focused on systems analysis in a multi-actor context to support better informed decision-making. The approach presented in this book is considered to be the cornerstone of...
book 2022
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Jafino, B.A. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
To support equitable planning, model-based analyses can be used to explore inequality patterns arising from different scenarios. Scenario discovery is increasingly used to extract insights from ensembles of simulation. Here, we apply two scenario discovery approaches for unraveling inequality patterns and their drivers, with an application to...
journal article 2021
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Shavazipour, Babooshka (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Miettinen, Kaisa (author)
This paper proposes a novel optimization approach for multi-scenario multi-objective robust decision making, as well as an alternative way for scenario discovery and identifying vulnerable scenarios even before any solution generation. To demonstrate and test the novel approach, we use the classic shallow lake problem. We compare the results...
journal article 2021
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Yalew, S.G. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Doorn, N. (author)
The importance of cooperation on transboundary waters is stated as a target in the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals (SDG6: water). Cooperation on transboundary water management is critical, particularly because it concerns issues across multiple states, SDGs and targets regarding agriculture, energy, ecosystems,...
journal article 2021
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Jafino, B.A. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Taebi, B. (author)
Models for supporting climate adaptation and mitigation planning, mostly in the form of Integrated Assessment Models, are poorly equipped for aiding questions related to fairness of adaptation and mitigation strategies, because they often disregard distributional outcomes. When evaluating policies using such models, the costs and benefits are...
review 2021
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Jafino, B.A. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Klijn, F. (author), Dung, Nguyen Viet (author), van Delden, Hedwig (author), Haasnoot, Marjolijn (author), Sutanudjaja, Edwin H. (author)
The need for explicitly considering equity in climate change adaptation planning is increasingly being recognized. However, evaluations of adaptation often adopt an aggregated perspective, while disaggregation of results is important to learn about who benefits when and where. A typical example is adaptation of rice agriculture in the Vietnam...
journal article 2021
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Bartholomew, Erin (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
In recent years, a family of approaches has emerged for supporting decision-making on complex environmental problems characterized by deep uncertainties and competing priorities. Many-Objective Robust Decision Making (MORDM), Multi-scenario MORDM and. Many-Objective Robust Optimization (MORO) differ with respect to the degree to which...
journal article 2020
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
Even though real options analysis (ROA) is often thought as the best tool available for evaluating flexible strategies, there are profound problems with the assumptions underpinning ROA rendering it unsuitable for use in supporting planning and decision-making on climate adaptation. In the face of dynamic and deep uncertainty about the future...
journal article 2020
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Ciullo, A. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), De Bruijn, Karin M. (author), Doorn, N. (author), Klijn, F. (author)
Flood risk management decisions in many countries are based on decision-support frameworks which rely on cost-benefit analyses. Such frameworks are seldom informative about the geographical distribution of risk, raising questions on the fairness of the proposed policies. In the present work, we propose a new decision criterion that accounts...
journal article 2020
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