Analysing the uncertain future of copper with three exploratory system dynamics models

High copper prices, the prospect of a transition to a more sustainable energy mix and increasing copper demands from emerging economies have not led to an in-creased attention to the base metal copper in mineral scarcity discussions. The copper system is well documented, but especially regarding the demand of copper many uncertainties exist. In...

A bright future for system dynamics: From art to computational science and beyond

This paper presents a bright future for quantitative System Dynamics Modeling. This future relates to all major issues and grand challenges which all happen to be dynamically complex and deeply uncertain. Combining System Dynamics Modeling and Exploratory Modeling and Analysis allows one to generate, explore and deeply analyze tens of thousands...

To Radicalize or to Deradicalize? Is that the Question?

Radicalization and deradicalization are deeply uncertain dynamic processes. Exploring and analyzing many plausible futures and assessing the robustness of policies to reinforce desirable evolutions seem more useful for such processes than trying to predict their precise development over time and optimize the associated policy response. This...