Decision Making under Uncertainty for Construction Management of Offshore Wind Assets

Offshore wind is expected to be one of the important contributors to the energy transition towards a more renewable and sustainable energy future. This can be clearly seen from the amount of investments over the past years as well as from the substantial upcoming offshore wind projects in the years to come. Many technological implementation...

Improving Subsurface Asset Failure Predictions for Utility Operators: A Unique Case Study on Cable and Pipe Failures Resulting from Excavation Work

Utility operators must rely on predictive analyses regarding the availability of their subsurface assets, which highly depend on damage by increasing amounts of excavation work. However, straightforward use of standard statistical techniques, such as logistic regression or Bayesian logistic regression, does not allow for accurate predictions...

Update (1.2) to ANDURIL and ANDURYL: Performance improvements and a graphical user interface

This is an update to PII: S2352711018300608 and S2352711019302419 In this paper, we present three main improvements of ANDURIL and its python version ANDURYL. First the MATLAB version ANDURIL is brought to the Python version standard by implementing (i) user defined quantiles and (ii) the possibility to deal with missing values. Second, the...

Expert judgement based maintenance decision support method for structures with a long service-life

The optimal moment at which maintenance activities should be performed on structures with long service-life to guarantee the required quality of service is hard to define, due to uncertainties in their deterioration processes. Most of the developed methods and concepts use historical data to predict the deterioration process with deterministic...

Offshore infrastructure planning using a vine copula approach for environmental conditions: an application for replacement maintenance of tidal energy infrastructure

Installation and maintenance operations of offshore assets are impacted by local environmental conditions such as wave height and period, wind speed and current velocity. These parameters are substantially of influence for the asset planning (time and costs) given the uncertainty of operational windows. In this article, a method is proposed to...

Replacement optimization of ageing infrastructure under differential inflation

Ageing public infrastructure assets necessitate economic replacement analysis. A common replacement problem concerns an existing asset challenged by a replacement option. Classic techniques obtained from the domain of engineering economics are the mainstream approach to replacement optimization in practice. However, the validity of these classic...

Decision support for offshore asset construction using expert judgments for supply disruptions risk

Offshore asset construction is a complex and costly process that is subject to various uncertainties within the entire supply chain. Hence, both the construction management optimization and the reduction of deployment expenditures should be supported by automated decision support models which include proper representations of predominant...

Update (1.1) to ANDURIL—A MATLAB toolbox for ANalysis and Decisions with UnceRtaInty: Learning from expert judgments: ANDURYL

This is an update to PII: S2352711018300608. In this paper, we discuss ANDURYL, which is a Python-based open source successor of the MATLAB toolbox ANDURIL. The output of ANDURYL is in good agreement with the results obtained from ANDURIL and EXCALIBUR. Additional features available in ANDURYL, and not available in its predecessors, are discussed.

ANDURIL - A MATLAB toolbox for ANalysis and Decisions with UnceRtaInty: Learning from expert judgments

The Classical model (or Cooke’s model) for elicitation and combination of expert judgments has been used in science and engineering since at least the early 1990’s. The most widely used program for applications of this model is EXCALIBUR. However, its code is not available for practitioners, which limits the accessibility and potential of the...

Probabilistic scheduling of offshore operations using copula based environmental time series: An application for cable installation management for offshore wind farms

There are numerous uncertainties that impact offshore operations. However, environmental uncertainties concerning variables such as wave height and wind speed are crucial because these may affect installation and maintenance operations with potential delays and financial consequences. In order to include these uncertainties into the duration...

Design of a probabilistic decision support tool for the cable installation of an offshore wind farm

During the past years a lot of attention has been drawn towards the development of renewables, due to the expected depletion of fossil fuels and political decisions. Offshore wind energy is considered as one of the most promising renewable energy sources, however the cost of offshore wind farms have not yet reached competitive levels. Hence...