Searched for: author:"Morales-Napoles, O."
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Paprotny, D. (author), Morales Napoles, O. (author), Jonkman, Sebastiaan N. (author)
The influence of social and economic change on the consequences of natural hazards has been a matter of much interest recently. However, there is a lack of comprehensive, high-resolution data on historical changes in land use, population or assets available to study this topic. Here, we present HANZE database, or ‘Historical Analysis of Natural...
journal article 2018
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Werner, Christoph (author), Hanea, A.M. (author), Morales Napoles, O. (author)
In decision and risk analysis problems, modelling uncertainty probabilistically provides key insights and information for decision makers. A common challenge is that uncertainties are typically not isolated but interlinked which introduces complex (and often unexpected) effects on the model output. Therefore, dependence needs to be taken into...
book chapter 2018
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Jaeger, W.S. (author), Morales Napoles, O. (author)
Stochastic descriptions and simulations of oceanographic variables are essential for coastal and marine engineering applications. In the past decade, copula-based approaches have become increasingly popular for estimating the multivariate distribution of some variables at the peak of a storm along with its duration. The modeling of the storm...
journal article 2017
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Morales Napoles, O. (author), Paprotny, D. (author), Worm, D (author), Abspoel, L (author), Courage, W (author)
In this paper two methodologies are investigated that contribute to better assessment of risks related to extreme rainfall events. Firstly, one-parameter bivariate copulas are used to analyze rain gauge data in the Netherlands. Out of three models considered, the Gumbel copula, which indicates upper tail dependence, represents the data most...
journal article 2017
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Puig, Daniel (author), Morales Napoles, O. (author), Bakhtiari, Fatemeh (author), Landa, Gissela (author)
Governmental climate change mitigation targets are typically developed with the aid of forecasts of greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. The robustness and credibility of such forecasts depends, among other issues, on the extent to which forecasting approaches can reflect prevailing uncertainties. We apply a transparent and replicable method to...
journal article 2017
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Paprotny, D. (author), Sebastian, Antonia (author), Morales Napoles, O. (author), Jonkman, Sebastiaan N. (author)
Adverse consequences of floods change in time and are influenced by both natural and socio-economic trends and interactions. In Europe, previous studies of historical flood losses corrected for demographic and economic growth (‘normalized’) have been limited in temporal and spatial extent, leading to an incomplete representation of trends in...
journal article 2017
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Paprotny, D. (author), Morales Napoles, O. (author), Jonkman, Sebastiaan N. (author)

Flood hazard is currently being researched on continental and global scales, using models of increasing complexity. In this paper we investigate a different, simplified approach, which combines statistical and physical models in place of conventional rainfall-run-off models to carry out flood mapping for Europe. A Bayesian-network-based model...

journal article 2017
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Kosgodagan-Dalla Torre, Alex (author), Yeung, Thomas G. (author), Morales Napoles, O. (author), Castanier, B (author), Maljaars, J. (author), Courage, WMG (author)
Modeling the stochastic evolution of a largescale fleet or network generally proves to be challenging. This difficulty may be compounded through complex relationships between various assets in the network. Although a great number of probabilistic graph-based models (e.g., Bayesian networks) have been developed recently to describe the behavior...
journal article 2017
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Sebastian, A.G. (author), Dupuits, E.J.C. (author), Morales Napoles, O. (author)
In recent years significant emphasis has been placed on quantifying coastal flood hazards in the U.S. using high resolution 2-D hydrodynamic and nearshore wave models. However, these studies are computationally expensive and often neglect to consider the flooding that arises from the combined hazards of precipitation and storm surge in coastal...
journal article 2017
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Paprotny, D. (author), Morales Napoles, O. (author), Vousdoukas, Michalis I. (author), Jonkman, Sebastiaan N. (author), Nikulin, G (author)
Coastal flood maps covering the whole European continent have become available in recent years. However, their ability to complement or replace high-resolution local flood maps was not investigated so far. In this paper we compare pan-European estimates of extreme sea levels and coastal flood extents at given return periods with observations and...
journal article 2017
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Paprotny, D. (author), Morales Napoles, O. (author)
Large-scale hydrological modelling of flood hazards requires adequate extreme discharge data. In practise, models based on physics are applied alongside those utilizing only statistical analysis. The former require enormous computational power, while the latter are mostly limited in accuracy and spatial coverage. In this paper we introduce an...
journal article 2017
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Paprotny, D. (author), Jonkman, S.N. (author), Morales Napoles, O. (author)
Objectives
Since the beginning of the second industrial revolution in the second half of the 19th century, Europe’s society and economy has been profoundly transformed. The population doubled in the last 150 years, together with more than fourfold increase in number of dwellings and 30-fold increase in production value in real terms. At the...
abstract 2017
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Paprotny, D. (author), Morales Napoles, O. (author), Nikulin, Grigory (author)
Continental or global studies of coastal flood hazard in the context of climate change encounter several obstacles. The primary concern is the limited coverage of sea level data, especially the high-frequency sort needed to analyse sea level extremes. In this paper we present the calculations of return periods of storm surge heights and water...
conference paper 2016
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Leontaris, G. (author), Morales Napoles, O. (author), Wolfert, A.R.M. (author)

There are numerous uncertainties that impact offshore operations. However, environmental uncertainties concerning variables such as wave height and wind speed are crucial because these may affect installation and maintenance operations with potential delays and financial consequences. In order to include these uncertainties into the duration...

journal article 2016
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Huibregtse, E. (author), Morales Napoles, O. (author), Hellebrandt, L. (author), Paprotny, D. (author), De Wit, S. (author)
This paper presents a risk-based method to quantify climate change effects on road infrastructure, as a support for decision-making on interventions. This can be implemented in climate adaptation plans as an element of asset management. The method is illustrated by a specific case in which traffic on a road network is disrupted by the flooding...
journal article 2016
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Kosgodagan, A (author), Morales Napoles, O. (author), Maljaars, J (author), Courage, W (author)
Markov-based models for predicting deterioration for civil infrastructures are widely recognized as suitable tools addressing this mechanism. The objective of this paper is to provide insights regarding a network of orthotropic steel bridges in terms of degradation. Consequently, a model combining a dynamic Bayesian network and a Markov chain is...
conference paper 2016
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Nogal, M. (author), Morales Napoles, O. (author), O'Connor, Alan (author)
There is a lack of consensus in relation to the operationality of important concepts and descriptors of traffic networks such as resilience and vulnerability. With the aim of determining a framework with mathematical sound to objectively define and delimit these concepts, the expert judgment uncertainty quantification has been selected to assess...
conference paper 2016
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Groenemeijer, P (author), Vajda, A (author), Lehtonen, I (author), Kamarainen, M (author), Venalainen, A (author), Gregow, H (author), Becker, N (author), Nissen, K (author), Ulbrich, U (author), Paprotny, D. (author), Morales Napoles, O. (author), Pucik, T (author)
This report presents analyses of the probability of hydro-meteorological hazard occurrence, which were carried out within the RAIN project. Those probabilities and their projected changes during the 21st century are an input to subsequent risk analyses which assist the identification of optimal adaptation measures. The spatial distributions of...
report 2016
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Jonkman, S.N. (author), Steenbergen, R.D.J.M. (author), Morales-Napoles, O. (author), Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M. (author), Vrijling, J.K. (author)
lecture notes 2015
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Pol, J.C. (author), Barneveld, H.J. (author), Morales Napoles, O. (author), Schielen, R.M.J. (author)
Design water levels are needed for the design of flood defences along the Dutch river Meuse. Current practise is that these water levels are determined by hydrodynamic simulation of a standard design hydrograph at the upstream gauging station Borgharen. The peak discharge of this synthetic hydrograph is based on a frequency analysis of the 100...
conference paper 2015
Searched for: author:"Morales-Napoles, O."
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