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Mai, C.V. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author), Vrijling, J.K. (author), Mai, T.C. (author)This paper aims at risk analysis and the investigation of safety aspects of coastal flood defences in Vietnam. The sea dike system has been actually designed by a 20 to 25 years return period. From the current situation it seems that the dike system is not sufficient to withstand the actual sea boundary conditions. Accurate safety assessment of...conference paper 2008
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Pham Quang, T. (author), van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author), Vrijling, J.K. (author), Thu, T.M. (author)Reliability and risk analyses are basic approaches, nowadays, for flood risk assessments in European countries such as the Netherlands, German, United Kingdom, etc. The methods also receive a lot of interest in developing countries. By considering uncertainties for both load and strength variables, the probability of failure for each element of...conference paper 2012
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Nguyen, B.M. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author)This paper presents a new approach of applying numerical methods to model storm processes. A storm empirical track technique is utilized to simulate the full tracks of hurricanes, starting with their initial points over the sea and ending with their landfall locations or final dissipations. The theoretical framework was first described in the...conference paper 2012
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Van Erp, H.R.N. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author)In this paper we present a Bayesian logistic regression analysis. It is found that if one wishes to derive the posterior distribution of the probability of some event, then, together with the traditional Bayes Theorem and the integrating out of nuissance parameters, the Jacobian transformation is an essential added ingredient. The application of...conference paper 2012
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Den Heijer, C. (author), Reniers, A.J.H.M. (author), Van de Graaff, J. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author)Coastal dunes protect low lying coastal areas against the sea. Extreme waves and water levels during severe storms may cause breaching of the dunes. Consequently, serious damage due to flooding and direct wave attack could occur, resulting in loss of life and property. Proper coastal management implies that reinforcement measures will be taken...conference paper 2008
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Wagner, W. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author)The Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment of The Netherlands and Rijkswaterstaat (RWS) aim to launch a risk-driven maintenance concept named RAMSSHEEP. Engineering and consultancy companies are expected to develop the RAMSSHEEP concept in order to create better maintenance strategies. The objective is to investigate whether RAMSSHEEP...conference paper 2013
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Nguyen, B.M. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author)This paper presents a new modeling technique to simulate the entire track of hurricane, starting with their initial points and ending with their landfall locations or final dissipations over the sea. The theoretical framework was first described in the literature by Vickery et al. (2000) and is extended in this study by introducing a new formula...conference paper 2012
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Pham Quang, T. (author), Vrijling, J.K. (author), van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author), Thu, T.M. (author)The application of reliability analysis in civil engineering is still an emerging technology, more so in geotechnical engineering and even more so in application to river dikes. However, much experience remains to be gained, recently, especially in European countries (the Netherlands, Germany, United Kingdom ) as well as in the United States of...conference paper 2010
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Nguyen, D.V. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author), Verhagen, H.J. (author), Vrijling, J.K. (author)This paper presents a comprehensive maintenance strategy with optimal inspection planning and its application to rubble mound breakwaters. In order to fulfil designated functions, a breakwater has to be inspected during its lifetime and has to be repaired if necessary. Actions of inspecting and repairing form a maintenance strategy. In the paper...conference paper 2010
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Ten Veldhuis, J.A.E. (author), Clemens, F.H.L.R. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author)Traditional methods to evaluate flood risk mostly focus on storm events as the main cause of flooding. Fault tree analysis is a technique that is able to model all potential causes of flooding and to quantify both the overall probability of flooding and the contributions of all causes of flooding to the overall flood probability. This paper...conference paper 2008
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Odijk, M.A. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author)Let Z1, ..., Zn be i.i.d. standard normal variables, Mn the extreme among their absolute values, and Qn their rooted sum of squares. Here we study the ratio ?n =Mn /Qn. We show that ?(?n ) = ?(Mn )/?(Qn )~ bn / Vn ~ V2log(n)/n, where cn ~ dn denotes that cn /dn ?1 for n??. Moreover, convergence happens in a stable manner, i.e. ?n ~ ?(?n ) in...conference paper 2013
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Van Ledden, M. (author), Van den Berg, N.J.F. (author), De Jong, M.S. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author), Den Heijer, C. (author), Vrijling, J.K. (author), Jonkman, S.N. (author), Roos, P.C. (author), Hulscher, S.J.M.H. (author), Lansen, A.J. (author)This paper explores an alternative method to determine extreme surge levels at the Dutch Coast. For this exploration, specific focus is on the extreme water level at Hoek van Holland, The Netherlands. The alternative method has been based on a joint probability model of the storm characteristics at the North Sea. The intent of this method is to...conference paper 2014
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Viet, N.D. (author), Verhagen, H.J. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author), Vrijling, J.K. (author)In 2006 a Vietnamese Engineering Consultancy Company carried out a design study of a Naval Base at the location of the South of Doson Peninsula in Vietnam. A deterministic approach applied to the conceptual design of the breakwater system of the Naval Base resulted in a cross-section with a big armour layer and a rather low crest level. This...conference paper 2008
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Ke, Q. (author), Jonkman, S.N. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author), Rijcken, T. (author)Flood damage estimation is essential to flood risk analysis. Flood hazards, values of elements at risk and vulnerability of elements determine flood damage. However, these determinants entail uncertainties. In this study, water depth, values of elements at risk and damage function are selected as three key parameters. The local sensitivity...conference paper 2012
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- Nguyen, B.M. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author) conference paper 2012
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Viet, N.D. (author), Verhagen, H.J. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author), Vrijling, J.K. (author)An appropriate assignment of probabilities of failure to subsystems and components in a structural system can bring a minimum of costs and risk. In this paper, a method for economic optimisation of rubble mound breakwaters using pre-assigned probabilities of failure is presented. Application to a design case shows that the proposed method is...conference paper 2008
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- Wang, L. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author), Vrijling, J.K. (author) conference paper 2012
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Zhong, H. (author), Van Overloop, P.J.A.T.M. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author), Tian, X. (author)The Dutch Lower Rhine Delta, a transitional area between the Rivers Rhine, Meuse and the North Sea, is at risk of flooding induced by infrequent events of storm surges or fluvial floods, or the combination of both. To protect the delta from storm surges, it can be closed off from the sea by large dams and controllable storm surge barriers. Also,...conference paper 2013
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Nguyen, D.V. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author), Verhagen, H.J. (author), Vrijling, J.K. (author)In order to avoid failure in its lifetime, a breakwater system has to be inspected and, if necessary, has to be repaired. In this paper, a comprehensive maintenance strategy with optimal inspection planning is formulated. Rational maintenance decision-making approaches are discussed. The proposed maintenance strategy combines time-dependent and...conference paper 2010
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Schweckendiek, T. (author), Courage, W.M.G. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author)The Finite Element Method is well accepted in design practice nowadays. It can be used for modeling complex structures and systems. The constitutive models are improving, which enables us to make more accurate predictions of the real world behavior. On the other hand, especially in the field of geotechnical engineering, the uncertainties in the...conference paper 2007