Towards generalized ship's manoeuvre models based on real time simulation results in port approach areas

This paper presents an attempts towards creation of generalized models of ships manoeuvring area determination and ship performance created on the base of real simulation results. Those models are needed for better understanding of the safe navigation process in ports areas and its approaches and for risk analysis when no full information...

Risk mitigation and investability of a U-PHS project in the Netherlands

We review the status of a 1.4 GW, 8 GWh underground pumped hydro storage (U-PHS) project in the southern Netherlands, which has been under development since the 1980s. Its history shows how the prospect of a large-scale U-PHS for The Netherlands (a country whose proverbial flatness prohibits PHS) has been attractive in every decade, based on...

Defend or raise? Optimising flood risk reduction strategies

Flood risk reduction can be provided by interventions such as raising land or constructing flood defences. This paper introduces an approach to optimise the selection of risk reduction strategies. It expands existing economic optimization approaches for flood defences, by introducing (largely) analytical formulations to include the effects of...

Damage to grass dikes due to wave overtopping

Grass covers have been applied as an effective measure for protecting river levees and sea dikes. We conducted experiments to show how roots considerably improve the shear strength of soil on dike slopes. Roots of 1-year-old Bermuda and Carpet grass may increase the total shear strength of up to 20 kPa. Exposed to severe overtopping flow, dike...

Economic optimization of flood prevention systems in the Netherlands

After the flood disaster of 1953, the Netherlands adopted a rational approach to flood risk management with the use of protection standards determined by means of cost-benefit analysis. Due to scientific and political developments that have recently taken place, an update of the Dutch protection standards is being undertaken. One of the major...

Risk based maintenance of a cross-country petroleum pipeline system

This paper proposes a data-driven approach in determining an optimal inspection interval for a petroleum pipeline system. The approach accounts for the determination of both the probability of failure and its associated consequences. The probability of failure is estimated by fitting the historical data of failure of the pipeline into either a...

Experimental investigation on breaching of embankments

Breaching of embankments has recently drawn more and more attention due to its importance in the development of early warning systems for embankment failures, in the evacuation plans of people at risk, in the design method of embankments based on a risk-approach, etc. The erosion process observed during embankment breaching tests in the...

Decision Analysis Framework for Risk Management of Crude Oil Pipeline System

A model is constructed for risk management of crude pipeline subject to rupture on the basis of a methodology that incorporates structured expert judgment and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The risk model calculates frequency of failure and their probable consequences for different segments of crude pipeline, considering various failure...

Detecting long-memory: Monte Carlo simulations and application to daily streamflow processes

Testing and modelling autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity of streamflow processes

Conventional streamflow models operate under the assumption of constant variance or season-dependent variances (e.g. ARMA (AutoRegressive Moving Average) models for deseasonalized streamflow series and PARMA (Periodic AutoRegressive Moving Average) models for seasonal streamflow series). However, with McLeod-Li test and Engle's Lagrange...

Geotechnical applications and conditions of the observational method

Optimal design of flood defence systems in a changing climate

Economical optimization of the maintenance of a river bed protection construction

This example of optimizing the maintenance by minimizing the sum of the present values of the tisk and the costs of repair in a certain plan peliod is a part of a study done by the author by order of the Delft University of Technology. In this study also a classification of ageing models and a definition of the usefulness of inspection is given....