Capturing the uncertainty about a sudden change in the properties of time series with confidence curves

The representation of uncertainty in results is an important aspect of statistical techniques in hydrology and climatology. Hypothesis tests and point estimates are not well suited for this purpose. Other statistical tools, such as confidence curves, are better suited to represent uncertainty. Therefore three parametric methods to construct...

The uncertainty associated with the use of copulas in multivariate analysis

The dependency structure between hydrological variables is of critical importance to hydrological modelling and forecasting. When a copula capturing that dependence is fitted to a sample, information on the uncertainty of the fit is needed for subsequent hydrological calculations and reasoning. A new method is proposed to report inferential...

Use of confidence curves to represent uncertainty in hydro-meteorological time series analysis

Climate change is incompatible with the assumption of stationarity. This has lead to a sharp increase in the detection and study of nonstationarity in hydro-meteorological processes. Most hydro-meteorological processes are still analyzed by studying time series of observations. From the perspective of statistical characteristics, a stationary...

Confidence curves for change points in hydrometeorological time series

In this paper, a method based on Approximate Empirical likelihood ratio and a Deviance function combined with bootstrapping (AED-BP) is proposed to construct a confidence curve for the location of a change point. The method is compared with a method based on parametric Profile Likelihood and a Deviance function combined with Monte Carlo...

How hard is it to detect abrupt changes in the statistics of time series?

Comparative analysis of nonparametric change-point detectors commonly used in hydrology

Several commonly-used nonparametric change-point detection methods are analysed in terms of power, ability and accuracy of the estimated change-point location. The analysis is performed with synthetic data for different sample sizes, two types of change and different magnitudes of change. The methods studied are the Pettitt method, a method...

Induction heating-assisted compaction in porous asphalt pavements: A computational study

Low temperature asphalt (LTA) technologies, such as warm-mixed asphalt mixes, are utilized in the paving industry to lower energy demands and greenhouse gas emissions during asphalt mixing and pavement construction. However, the asphalt mixes developed that incorporate LTA additives are more sensitive than hot-mixed asphalts to temperature...

Numerical evaluation of induction heating assisted compaction technology for low temperature asphalt pavement construction

Low Temperature Asphalt (LTA) technologies are utilized in asphalt pavement industry to lower energy demands and greenhouse gas emission during mixing and construction processes. Although these technologies are currently available and hope to demonstrate similar performance with Hot Mix Asphalt (HMA) mixes, LTA shows more sensitive than HMA to...

Interactive Evaluation of the Reliability of Engineered Slopes Utilising Multi-source Monitoring Information

Important engineered slopes are often heavily instrumented and their performance routinely monitored through these instruments. The evaluation of the safety of the slopes based on the monitored information is however a challenge. A systematic method is presented in this paper for evaluating the slope safety by combining multi-source monitoring...