An integrated framework for anticipating the future and dealing with uncertainty in policymaking

Policymakers need to make policies for an uncertain future, and policy analysts assist policymakers in choosing preferred courses of action. Despite a longstanding recognition that the futures field can contribute a great deal to policy analysis, futures work is not used to its full potential as an element of policy analysis. This is partly due...

An integrated three-layered foresight framework

Purpose: The paper aims to present an integrated foresight framework and method to support decision-makers who are confronted with today’s complex and rapidly changing world. The method aims at reducing the degree of uncertainty by addressing the inertia or duration of unfolding trends and by placing individual trends in a broader context....

Assessing the robustness of Dutch Inland Ports

In the present turbulent environment highlighted by energy transition, disruptive technology, and climate change impacts, adaptability and robustness are essential in long-term planning of infrastructures. This also applies to inland ports, which play an important role in the Dutch transport system. Inland ports have three major functions, i.e.,...

PORT METATRENDS: Impact of long term trends on business activities, spatial use and maritime infrastructure requirements in the Port of Rotterdam

This report presents a new three step approach for developing a shared vision on the future development of the port of Rotterdam. The first step concerns a novel three layered framework for analysing future developments. In this step relevant trends are identified and placed in a broader 'meta'-perspective of a three layered framework, whereby...

Improving the link between the futures field and policymaking

Policymakers need to make policies for unknown and uncertain futures. Researchers in the futures field have a great deal to contribute to the policymaking process. But, futures research is often neglected as an element of policymaking. The aim of this paper is to improve the link between futures research and policymaking. More specifically,...

Stakeholder inclusive design for sustainable port development

It is being increasingly recognized that sustainable port development requires an integrated planning approach which includes working with nature, a stakeholder inclusive design and co-creation of values, as well as an adaptive design that can cope with future uncertainties without losing its functionality. The multi-disciplinary character of...