"uuid","repository link","title","author","contributor","publication year","abstract","subject topic","language","publication type","publisher","isbn","issn","patent","patent status","bibliographic note","access restriction","embargo date","faculty","department","research group","programme","project","coordinates"
"uuid:5f21aff9-85e5-435e-8402-704263064e66","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:5f21aff9-85e5-435e-8402-704263064e66","Channel response of an engineered river to climate change and human intervention","Ylla Arbos, C. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering)","Blom, A. (promotor); Schielen, R.M.J. (copromotor); Delft University of Technology (degree granting institution)","2024","Humans have intervened in rivers for centuries. River engineering measures have aimed at protecting populations against flooding, ensuring reliable and safe navigation, providing freshwater for drinking, domestic and industrial use, irrigation, and energy supply, and providing opportunities for recreation. All around the world, measures such as channelization (i.e., channel narrowing and shortening), dam construction, or channel diversion have allowed for the proliferation of human settlements, technological progress, and an improved quality of life.
Despite the various socio-economic benefits of human intervention in rivers, engineering measures have side effects, often unaccounted for, or simply unknown before they manifest. This is because, by modifying the channel characteristics (geometry, planform, size of the bed surface sediment), or its controls (water discharge, sediment supply, base level), engineering measures alter the equilibrium state of a river. In response, rivers adjust toward the new equilibrium state through bed incision or aggradation, changes in channel width or sinuosity, or changes in the bed surface grain size distribution. This response may extend over hundreds of kilometers, and develop during decades to centuries....","rivers; channel adjustment; climate change; human intervention; Rhine","en","doctoral thesis","","978-94-6366-808-8","","","","","","","","","Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering","","",""
"uuid:a16f8f3f-6dd2-4700-89d1-93c89a65aee8","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:a16f8f3f-6dd2-4700-89d1-93c89a65aee8","Developing a Model to Study the Climate Change Impact on River Bifurcations in Engineered Rivers","Chowdhury, M. Kifayath (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering); Blom, A. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering); Ylla Arbos, C. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering); Schielen, R.M.J. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering; Rijkswaterstaat)","","2024","Climate change is responsible for global shifts in precipitation patterns and an overall in-crease in global temperatures. The transi-tions are anticipated to modify the river hydro-graph and sea level. The changes to the hy-drograph are also likely to influence sediment flux. These alterations imply shifts in both up-stream and downstream boundaries for river bifurcations. However, the resulting bifurca-tion response remains uncertain and warrants further investigation. Our objective is to un-derstand the extent of large-scale and long-term response of river bifurcations to climate change. We take the Upper Dutch Rhine bifur-cation region as our case study and develop a 1D hydro-morphodynamic model representing the system to achieve this goal.","river bifurcation; Rhine River; climate change; long term morphological change; Pannerdense Kop","en","abstract","","","","","","","","","","","Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering","","",""
"uuid:810a8c53-abc8-4893-b114-abee5715073d","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:810a8c53-abc8-4893-b114-abee5715073d","The climate barge: Heritage and climate adaptation in the Dutch province of South-Holland","Mostert, E. (TU Delft Water Resources)","","2024","In the project Heritage uncovered; Tow barge canals in a water management context, the future value of tow barge canals for climate adaptation has been studied. The project focused on the area between the cities Leiden, The Hague, Delft, Rotterdam and Gouda, with a surface area of km2, and the tow barge canals the Vliet, the Schie, the Gouwe and the Old Rhine. Until 900 CE the areas was mostly peat swamp. Since then, it has been drained for agriculture. This has resulted in economic growth and the development of cities in the 13th Century. A side effect of drainage was land subsidence. In addition, peat was mined to supply the cities with fuel. To limit waterlogging, large drainage canals were dug, such as the Vliet and the Schie. In the 17th Century, many of these were modified to function as tow barge canals connecting the major cities.
It is expected that the water management challenges in the area will increase as a result of climate change. According to the climate scenarios for 2100 of the Royal Meteorological Institute, both heavy rainstorms and periods without any rainfall will become more common. On top of this, there are plans to build many new houses.
To prevent an increase in flood and drought problems, more temporary water storage can be created, but no less than 34 mln m3 of additional storage would be needed. 7.5 mln m3 additional storage can be created in the different polders, primarily to cope with peak rainfall events, while east of the town of Zoetermeer a new lake with 26.5 mln m3 of temporary storage can be created to supply water in drought periods, called the Bent lake (Bentmeer). Assuming 2 m difference between the highest and the lowest water level, the Bent lake would need to have a surface area of 13.3 km2. It can offer excellent opportunities for recreation and nature.
To transport water in and out of the Bent lake, a connection to the Rotte river in the south and the Old Rhine (Oude Rijn) in the north has to be made. This would restore an old shipping route. For the connection to the Old Rhine three options have been explored and for one of these a spatial plan has been made. In this option the Bent lake is connected to the existing Benthuizer canal (Benthuizervaart) and the Benthuizer canal is connected via a new canal to the existing Hoogeveense canal (Hoogeveense vaart), (see figures 15 and 16). Along parts of the new canal futuristic “green” appartements will be built with a view either on the canal or over the surrounding polders. To limit height differences for boating, the new canal will be constructed above the level of the polder. The new apartment buildings along the canal will also be built at a higher level, which will make them less vulnerable to flooding (see figure 1).
In all options the old tow barge canals are essential for transporting water to and from the Bent lake and discharging excess water onto the main rivers and the North Sea. In addition, they are a good entry point for telling the history of the landscape and reflecting on possible futures. It is proposed to construct a tow path along the new canal and make a replica of an original tow barge. This barge will be called the “Climate Barge” (Klimaatschuit) and can be used as a floating exhibition space and a location for future discussions.
The proposals in this report have not yet been developed in detail and the future is still very uncertain. Yet, we cannot wait until there is certainty. If sooner or later large-scale temporary water storage in this part of the country will be needed, space for this has to be reserved quite soon. The costs will be high, but the costs of inaction will be high too. And it offers new opportunities.
2) by more than 100 μmol mol-1. The ocean uptake of approximately one third of the emitted CO2 decreased the average global surface ocean pH from 8.21 to 8.10. This decrease is modifying sound propagation, especially sound absorption at the frequencies affected by shipping noise lower than 10 kHz, making the future ocean potentially noisier. There are also other climate change effects that may influence sound propagation. Sea surface warming might alter the depth of the deep sound speed channel, ice melting could locally decrease salinity and more frequent storms and higher wind speed alter the depth of the thermocline. In particular, modification of the sound speed profile can lead to the appearance of new ducts making specific depths noisier. In addition, ice melting and the increase in seawater temperature will open new shipping routes at the poles increasing anthropogenic noise in these regions. This review aims to discuss parameters that might change in the coming decades, focusing on the contribution of shipping, climate change and economic and technical developments to the future underwater soundscape in the ocean. Examples are given, contrasting the open ocean and the shallow seas. Apart from the changes in sound propagation, this review will also discuss the effects of water quality on ship-radiated noise with a focus on propeller cavitation noise.","climate change; ocean noise; shipping; soundscape; underwater acoustics","en","review","","","","","","","","","","","Ship Hydromechanics and Structures","","",""
"uuid:efee1e53-d081-4fcb-9a3c-39650de2a13e","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:efee1e53-d081-4fcb-9a3c-39650de2a13e","Precipitation extremes around the world: Unraveling historical extremes and future changes","Gründemann, Gaby J. (TU Delft Water Resources)","van de Giesen, N.C. (promotor); van der Ent, R.J. (copromotor); Delft University of Technology (degree granting institution)","2023","Improved understanding of historical precipitation extremes is important to better explain their behavior, predict future occurrences, and inform planning and engineering design. The intensity, seasonality, and timing of these extremes have far-reaching consequences, and require a comprehensive analysis of both historical trends and projected future changes. By integrating historical observations, statistical methods, and climate model projections, this research provides valuable insights into precipitation extremes on the global domain.","extreme precipitation; extreme value distribution; climate change; seasonality","en","doctoral thesis","","978-94-6473-310-5","","","","","","","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:ba1e9415-8339-4a3c-8034-67db565be793","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:ba1e9415-8339-4a3c-8034-67db565be793","Climate change induced uncertainties in future coastal ecosystem state","Mészáros, L. (TU Delft Statistics)","Jongbloed, G. (promotor); van der Meulen, F.H. (promotor); El Serafy, G.Y.H. (copromotor); Delft University of Technology (degree granting institution)","2023","This thesis presents a doctoral research where statistical concepts and techniques are applied to problems at the interface of marine and atmospheric processes. The research was conducted at the Statistics group of the Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics (TU Delft) and the Marine and Coastal unit of Deltares. The main objective of the work is to provide statistical tools to understand multi-dimensional climate and marine environmental datasets, as well as to offer ways for quantifying the uncertainties in the coastal ecological response that are driven by the climatic variation. Statistical quantification of uncertainties in data, models and predictions is therefore the central topic of the thesis.
The research is built on open source data (in-situ and satellite measured as well as numerically modelled) from the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service, the Dutch Directorate-General for Public Works and Water Management (Rijkswaterstaat), the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, and the Euro-CORDEX regional climate modelling experiment. It also uses the open source numerical modelling software Delft3D from Deltares. All other statistical models and algorithms developed during the research are published and available open source.
The thesis starts by demonstrating the value of probabilistic predictions and uncertainty quantification for coastal ecosystems. That is done by constructing an ensemble modelling framework where certain chosen numerical model inputs and model process parameters are perturbed, to which the simulated coastal chlorophyll-a concentration is sensitive. The model perturbation was implemented using Latin Hypercube Sampling with Dependence (LHSD), and more than 150 ensemble members were produced using the Delft3D model. This ensemble prediction system is then compared to the deterministic model setup. A range of verification metrics that describe the goodness-of-fit, accuracy, reliability, and discrimination properties of both modelling experiments were computed. Apart from the verification metrics, the value of probabilistic predictions was also showcased by evaluating the benefit of having temporal and spatial estimates of uncertainty by producing ensemble band, predictive uncertainty intervals and standard deviations maps.
In Chapter 3 of the thesis, we work towards the quantification of climate change induced uncertainties in coastal phytoplankton response. The first necessary step is a comprehensive data exploration and dimension reduction, which also provides a statistical underpinning of atmospheric variable selection for the climate impact studies conducted later in the thesis. Here a range of existing dimension reduction techniques are described and applied to seven atmospheric variables (air temperature, solar radiation, eastward wind, northward wind, air pressure, relative humidity, and total cloud cover) and the chlorophyll-a data at hand. These techniques are applied in a structured way to include spatial and temporal correlation, as well as functional features in the multi-dimensional data. The applied methods include Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Principal Component Regression (PCR), Partial Least Squares (PLS) Regression, multi-way models (PARAFAC, Tucker and N-PLS), Dynamic Factor Analysis (DFA), and Functional PCA. Room for dimension reduction in the atmospheric data was identified, underlying temporal patterns in the chlorophyll-a signal at different locations were revealed, structural similarities (characterized by a mean function and functional variation) in the Euro-CORDEX climate projections were found, and the most influential atmospheric variables (solar radiation and air temperature) were chosen.
Building on these findings, we propose a way to quantify uncertainties in the climate scenarios that are used for the climate impact studies. The basis of this research step is the development of a stochastic climate generator, which is first tested on the solar radiation variable. This climate generator takes the existing Euro-CORDEX scenarios (a combination of Representative Concentration Pathways and Generic Circulation Model forcings) and enriches them by generating numerous new synthetic scenarios around them. These new generated scenarios are representative of the original ones due to the way the stochastic climate generator is constructed. The basis of the climate generator is a Bayesian multi-layered (hierarchical) model. In this model there are model parameters representing variation in the long term trend, seasonal amplitude, time shift, and additive residual. The generator estimates the distribution of each model parameter with Bayesian inference, and using data from all scenarios. Then, when sampling from the parameter distributions, numerous climate trajectories can be constructed. The climate generator is successfully tested on the solar radiation variable and the generated synthetic radiation projections are used in a demonstration study where uncertainties are further propagated to chlorophyll-a concentrations using the Delft3D numerical model.
In the final research step of the thesis, this Bayesian stochastic generator is extended to air temperature. This way we have numerous (>100) radiation and temperature projections available to propagate climate induced uncertainties to coastal chlorophyll-a response once again, this time covering the entire 21st century. In order to translate the climate signal into chlorophyll-a response, we make use of a Bayesian structural time series model. This model follows a piecewise linear trend and continues to repeat its multi-seasonal behavior, learnt from the past data, and most importantly also includes linear effects of the two climate variables. For the training of this time series model, we construct a historical chlorophyll-a signal by fusing in-situ and satellite measurements. This fused signal helps us to take advantage of the more frequent satellite measurements while correcting them with the more accurate in-situ measurements that are also available for a longer historical period. The Bayesian structural time series model is then trained on the fused chlorophyll-a signal and used for long term projection, taking the generated radiation and temperature scenarios as regressors. Since our main interest is the phytoplankton spring bloom dynamics, as a last step we extract yearly spring bloom cardinal dates (beginning, peak, end) from the long-term chlorophyll-a projections using a non-parametric shape constrained method (log-concave regression). The final result is therefore the estimation of climate change induced uncertainty in the coastal phytoplankton spring bloom dynamics.","climate change; uncertainty quantification; coastal phytoplankton phenology; Bayesian models; data fusion; multivariate analysis","en","doctoral thesis","","978-94-6366-700-5","","","","","","","","","Statistics","","",""
"uuid:0c424cde-eb5d-4bb1-bc28-018b9982fa52","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:0c424cde-eb5d-4bb1-bc28-018b9982fa52","Inhabiting Regional Geographical Practice in a Climate-Changing World","Taylor, Zac (TU Delft Urban Development Management)","","2023","Reflecting on the limits of the sovereign-state centricity of mainstream contemporary climate action, Peter Taylor calls for new forms of regional geographical analysis and intervention. What might these aims and ambitions look and feel like for geographers? With this commentary, I take up Taylor's propositions through personal reflection on the work of “doing regional geography” in this current juncture of transnational climate action and transformation. I engage with the analytical challenges associated with regional climate research today – in my case, by way of financialized climate governance puzzles in Florida and the Netherlands. I also discuss how deconstructive and reconstructive approaches to knowledge production enliven my regional geographical engagement, but also generate new personal and disciplinary dilemmas. With this brief note, I hope to reinforce continued reflection on how geographers might take up – or inhabit – timely calls for regional analysis and intervention in climate-changing regions.","Regional geography; climate change; knowledge production; Florida; The Netherlands; financialization","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Urban Development Management","","",""
"uuid:d2212587-436e-48ba-8e6a-c178b185732d","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d2212587-436e-48ba-8e6a-c178b185732d","The Texas Coast: Ship Channel Network of the Petroleum Age","Lessoff, A.H. (TU Delft History, Form & Aesthetics; Illinois State University)","","2023","This article provides an overview of the Texas Gulf Coast as a port city region dedicated above all to oil and gas. By the late 1800s, the same trends in transportation and industry that encouraged ship channel construction around the world drew attention to schemes to transform the Gulf Coast’s shallow bays and estuaries into inland deep-water harbors. An added factor in Texas was the vulnerability of Galveston and other coastal locations to hurricanes. Between 1902, when construction began on the 52-mile Houston Ship Channel, and the 1950s–60s, when a deep-water channel opened at Matagorda Bay along the mid-Texas coast, various levels of government—local, state, and national—combined to engineer one of the world’s most elaborate navigation networks. Six deep-water channels were woven together by Gulf Intracoastal Waterway, which connected Texas to the Mississippi and beyond. During the years when these ports were taking shape, the Texas oil industry had begun to burgeon. In a reflection of the pre-Spindletop origins of Texas’s deep-water movement, policy and planning continued to assume, until oil’s dominance had become clear, that even the massive ship channels at Houston and Corpus Christi would serve mainly as outlets for agricultural commodities. It was the organizers of the state’s petroleum sector who came to understand the Texas ship channels as exemplary locations for aggregating their diverse operations. This interplay between civil engineering and the energy sector made coastal Texas into a dynamic urban port region. Petroleum and petrochemicals, however, so thoroughly imprinted themselves on the landscape, economy, and life of Texas’s oil port region that the region’s post-oil future remained difficult to envision.","Beaumont; climate change; Corpus Christi; Houston; petroleum industry; Port Arthur; port cities; ship channels; Texas cities","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","History, Form & Aesthetics","","",""
"uuid:1bf90ea7-5b51-4f74-8b4f-8ee93af7ae6c","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:1bf90ea7-5b51-4f74-8b4f-8ee93af7ae6c","Toward a low-carbon and circular building sector: Building strategies and urbanization pathways for the Netherlands","van Oorschot, Janneke (Universiteit Leiden); Sprecher, B. (TU Delft Design for Sustainability); Rijken, Bart (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency); Witteveen, Pieter (Metabolic Institute, Amsterdam); Blok, Merlijn (Metabolic Institute, Amsterdam); Schouten, Nico (Metabolic Institute, Amsterdam); van der Voet, Ester (Universiteit Leiden)","","2023","Buildings are an important part of society's environmental impacts, both in the construction and in the use phase. As the energy performance of buildings improve, construction materials become more important as a cause of environmental impact. Less attention has been given to those materials. We explore, as an alternative for conventional buildings, the use of biobased materials and circular building practices. In addition to building design, we analyze the effect of urbanization. We assess the potential to close material cycles together with the material related impact, between 2018 and 2050 in the Netherlands. Our results show a limited potential to close material cycles until 2050, as a result of slow stock turnover and growth of the building stock. At present, end-of-life recycling rates are low, further limiting circularity. Primary material demand can be lowered when shifting toward biobased or circular construction. This shift also reduces material related carbon emissions. Large-scale implementation of biobased construction, however, drastically increases land area required for wood production. Material demand differs strongly spatially and depends on the degree of urbanization. Urbanization results in higher building replacement rates, but constructed dwellings are generally small compared to scenarios with more rural developments. The approach presented in this work can be used to analyze strategies aimed at closing material cycles in the building sector and lowering buildings' embodied environmental impact, at different spatial scales.","building material; circular economy; climate change; geographic information systems; industrial ecology; material flow analysis","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Design for Sustainability","","",""
"uuid:e452cff3-3632-4bd8-8083-b3d47e8560c2","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:e452cff3-3632-4bd8-8083-b3d47e8560c2","The environmental impact of a shift to rail from short-haul flights","van Goeverden, C.D. (TU Delft Transport and Planning)","Tampère, Chris (editor); Cools, Mario (editor); Proost, Stef (editor)","2023","In the context of mitigating climate change, a shift from air to rail is proposed for short-haul journeys. The impact of this policy on the GHG emissions of aviation is small and will be even marginal if only journeys < 500 km are involved. These journeys account for 2.2% of the mileage of air travel, and the impact on emissions will be even smaller than this figure, mainly because not all air travellers (likely) will shift, and part of the emission reduction will be undone by increasing emissions of rail transport. When the upper limit of involved distances increases, the impact increases significantly as well; but even at a limit of 1200 km, which is about the upper limit of the market range of the train, the impact will likely be smaller than the opposite impact of the annual growth of air travel. Policy intentions seem to be prompted by just to do something that doesn’t hurt people so much rather than by a systematic analysis of possible measures and their effectiveness.","modal shift; short-haul travel; airplane; train; climate change","en","conference paper","KU Leuven, Institute for Mobility","","","","","","","","","","Transport and Planning","","",""
"uuid:8c9abb68-bdf3-4f6e-a880-f40b906def19","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:8c9abb68-bdf3-4f6e-a880-f40b906def19","Estimated impact of CO2 and NOx emission reduction targets on car ownership and car use in The Netherlands","Vleugel, J (TU Delft Transport and Planning); Bal, Frans (University of Applied Sciences Amsterdam)","Syngellakis, S. (editor)","2023","Densely populated areas are major sources of air, soil and water pollution. Agriculture, manufacturing, consumer households and road traffic all have their share. This is particularly true for the country featured in this paper: the Netherlands. Continuous pollution of the air and soil manifests itself as acification, decalcification and eutrofication. Biodiversity becomes lower and lower in nature areas. Biological farms are also under threat. In case of mobility, local air pollution may have a huge health impact. Effective policy is called for, after high courts blocked construction projects, because of foreseen building- and transport-related NOx emissions. EU law makers are after Dutch governments, because these favoured economics and politics over environmental and liveability concerns. But, people in the Netherlands are strongly divided. The latest provincial elections were dominated by environmental concerns, next to many socio-economic issues. NOx and CO2 emissions by passenger cars are in focus. Technical means and increasing fuel economy norms strongly reduced NOx emissions to a still too high level. A larger number of cars neutralized a technological reduction of CO2 emissions. The question is: What would be the impact of a drastic mandatory reduction in CO2, NOx, and PM10 emissions on car ownership and use in the Netherlands? The authors used literature, scenario analysis and simulation modelling to answer this question. Electric mobility could remove these emissions. Its full impact will only be achieved if the grid-mix, which is still dominated by fossil fuels, becomes green(er), which is a gradual, long-term, process. EVs compete with other consumers of electricity, as many other activities, such as heating, are also electrifying. With the current grid-mix, it is inevitable that the number of km per vehicle per year is reduced to reach the scenario targets (−25% resp. −50% CO2 emissions by cars). This calls for an individual mobility budget per car user.","climate change; CO2 emissions; Fuel efficiency; Electric vehicles; Behaviour; Policymaking","en","conference paper","WIT Press","","","","","","","","","","Transport and Planning","","",""
"uuid:2290ddc0-0330-4484-bc33-65237ea74eb6","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:2290ddc0-0330-4484-bc33-65237ea74eb6","Environmental ethics beyond conferences: A response to the WCB bioethics in Qatar","Richie, C.S. (TU Delft Ethics & Philosophy of Technology)","","2023","Rieke van der Graaf, Karin Jongsma, Martine de Vries, Suzanne van de Vathorst, and Ineke Bolt have done well to voice ethical concerns over the decision of the IAB to host the next WCB in Qatar. Conferences should be more sustainable. Yet, attention to the carbon impact of conferences—and, perhaps, any country that a person might travel to for business or pleasure—are only one small part of environmentally responsible citizenship, especially for those trained in ethics and committed to health. Both bioethics as a discipline and bioethicists as individuals need to interrogate their environmental choices. To this end, some ecological choices are more obvious targets of ethical scrutiny—diet and travel—while others appear sacrosanct, like reproduction and even healthcare use. This underscores the importance of making sustainable and ethical organizational choices, such as where to hold a conference, without absolving environmental accountability in other ethical calculations. Many organizations in academic and clinical medicine need to make drastic alterations in their practices and policies to effectively mitigate carbon. While the burden is not only on bioethics alone, the expectation that it should be remains.","climate change; environmental bioethics; organizational ethics; sustainable conference","en","journal article","","","","","","Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.","","2023-12-29","","","Ethics & Philosophy of Technology","","",""
"uuid:bd75bfa9-0186-45bb-a347-b5ff43e410f3","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:bd75bfa9-0186-45bb-a347-b5ff43e410f3","Uncertainties in wave-driven longshore sediment transport projections presented by a dynamic CMIP6-based ensemble","Zarifsanayei, Amin Reza (Griffith University); Antolínez, José A. Á. (TU Delft Coastal Engineering); Cartwright, Nick (Griffith University); Etemad-Shahidi, Amir (Edith Cowan University; Griffith University); Strauss, Darrell (Griffith University); Lemos, Gil (University of Lisbon); Semedo, Alvaro (IHE Delft Institute for Water Education); Kumar, Rajesh (Centre for Climate Research Singapore); Dobrynin, Mikhail (Deutscher Wetterdienst); Akpınar, Adem (Bursa Uludağ University)","","2023","In this study four experiments were conducted to investigate uncertainty in future longshore sediment transport (LST) projections due to: working with continuous time series of CSIRO CMIP6-driven waves (experiment #1) or sliced time series of waves from CSIRO-CMIP6-Ws and CSIRO-CMIP5-Ws (experiment #2); different wave-model-parametrization pairs to generate wave projections (experiment #3); and the inclusion/exclusion of sea level rise (SLR) for wave transformation (experiment #4). For each experiment, a weighted ensemble consisting of offshore wave forcing conditions, a surrogate model for nearshore wave transformation and eight LST models was used. The results of experiment # 1 indicated that the annual LST rates obtained from a continuous time series of waves were influenced by climate variability acting on timescales of 20-30 years. Uncertainty decomposition clearly reveals that for near-future coastal planning, a large part of the uncertainty arises from model selection and natural variability of the system (e.g., on average, 4% scenario, 57% model, and 39% internal variability). For the far future, the total uncertainty consists of 25% scenario, 54% model and 21% internal variability. Experiment #2 indicates that CMIP6 driven wave climatology yield similar outcomes to CMIP5 driven wave climatology in that LST rates decrease along the study area’s coast by less than 10%. The results of experiment #3 indicate that intra- and inter-annual variability of LST rates are influenced by the parameterization schemes of the wave simulations. This can increase the range of uncertainty in the LST projections and at the same time can limit the robustness of the projections. The inclusion of SLR (experiment #4) in wave transformation, under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, yields only meagre changes in the LST projections, compared to the case no SLR. However, it is noted that future research on SLR influence should include potential changes in nearshore profile shapes.","uncertainty in LST projections; climate change; CMIP6 CSIRO wave projections; ensemble modelling; coastal evolution","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Coastal Engineering","","",""
"uuid:ad5b0568-9d0a-4479-835b-666549ce2401","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:ad5b0568-9d0a-4479-835b-666549ce2401","Climate change impacts on immovable cultural heritage in polar regions: A systematic bibliometric review","Nicu, Ionut Cristi (Norwegian Institute for Cultural Heritage Research (NIKU)); Fatorić, Sandra (TU Delft History, Form & Aesthetics)","","2023","Over the past decade, research on the impacts of climate change on immovable cultural heritage (ICH) in the polar regions (Arctic and Antarctica) has slowly increased. This article offers a systematic review and synthesis of the publications about climate change impacts on the diverse ICH and climate change adaptation in the polar regions. Gray literature was not included in the study. Arctic countries like Sweden, Finland, Iceland, and Russia, and their associated research organizations, are under-represented in this literature when compared with the USA, Canada, Denmark, and Norway. More than half of the analyzed literature is published in the last 3 years (2019, 2020, and 2021) with a focus on coastal erosion and ICH degradation (cryospheric hazards). ICH is at risk from biological degradation, coastal erosion, debris flow, and thaw slumping. Nearly half of the studies report on the need for climate change adaptation planning and implementation for ICH. This study shows that advances in research on climate change impacts and adaptation responses are needed to improve decision- and policy-maker capacity to support effective adaptation policies and to contribute to the achievement of SDGs in polar regions. The polar regions' vulnerable landscapes and ICH sites can be used to communicate a larger message about the climate change challenges and adaptation measures. This article is categorized under: Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Observed Impacts of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Learning from Cases and Analogies Climate and Development > Sustainability and Human Well-Being.","Antarctica; Arctic; climate change; climate change adaptation; cryospheric hazards; cultural heritage","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","History, Form & Aesthetics","","",""
"uuid:8887057c-f9ec-41c8-be17-687a6e9fecf6","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:8887057c-f9ec-41c8-be17-687a6e9fecf6","Flushing Toilets and Cooling Spaces with Seawater Improve Water-Energy Securities and Achieve Carbon Mitigations in Coastal Cities","Zhang, Zi (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology); Sato, Yugo (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology); Dai, Ji (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology); Chui, Ho kwong (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology); Daigger, Glen (University of Michigan); van Loosdrecht, Mark C.M. (TU Delft BT/Environmental Biotechnology); Chen, Guanghao (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)","","2023","Exploring alternative water sources and improving the efficiency of energy uses are crucial approaches to strengthening the water-energy securities and achieving carbon mitigations in sub(tropical) coastal cities. Seawater use for toilet flushing and district cooling systems is reportedly practical for achieving multiaspect benefits in Hong Kong. However, the currently followed practices are yet to be systematically evaluated for scale expansions and system adaptation in other coastal cities. The significance of using seawater to enhance local water-energy securities and carbon mitigations in urban areas remains unknown. Herein, we developed a high-resolution scheme to quantify the effects of the large-scale urban use of seawater on a city’s reliance on non-local and non-natural water and energy supplies and its carbon mitigation goals. We applied the developed scheme in Hong Kong, Jeddah, and Miami to assess diverse climates and urban characteristics. The annual water and energy saving potentials were found to be 16-28% and 3-11% of the annual freshwater and electricity consumption, respectively. Life cycle carbon mitigations were accomplished in the compact cities of Hong Kong and Miami (2.3 and 4.6% of the cities’ mitigation goals, respectively) but not in a sprawled city like Jeddah. Moreover, our results suggest that district-level decisions could result in optimal outcomes supporting seawater use in urban areas.","carbon mitigation; climate change; coastal cities; municipal services; seawater","en","journal article","","","","","","Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.","","2023-09-09","","","BT/Environmental Biotechnology","","",""
"uuid:0846ce60-5d59-4cce-ae88-56f797352e38","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:0846ce60-5d59-4cce-ae88-56f797352e38","Towards Climate Resilient Freight Transport in Europe","Bal, Frans (Utrecht University of Applied Sciences); Vleugel, J (TU Delft Transport and Planning)","","2023","Climate change is related with weather extremes, which may cause damages to infrastructure used by freight transport services. Heavy rainfall may lead to flooding and damage to railway lines, roads and inland waterways. Extreme drought may lead to extremely low water levels, which prevent safe navigation by inland barges. Wet and dry periods may alternate, leaving little time to repair damages. In some Western and Middle-European countries, barges have a large share in freight transport. If a main waterway is out of service, then alternatives are called for. Volume- and price-wise, trucking is not a viable alternative. Could railways be that alternative? The paper was written after the unusually long dry summer period in Europe in 2022. It deals with the question: If the Rhine, a major European waterway becomes locally inaccessible, could railways (temporarily) play a larger role in freight transport? It is a continuation of our earlier research. It contains a case study, the data of which was fed into a simulation model. The model deals with technical details like service specification route length, energy consumption and emissions. The study points to interesting rail services to keep Europe’s freight on the move. Their realization may be complex especially in terms of logistics and infrastructure, but is there an alternative?","climate change; resilience; rail freight; barges; international; modelling; OA-Fund TU Delft","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Transport and Planning","","",""
"uuid:e9a22676-b5e9-43e4-86c9-0a6ffd9e8ca8","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:e9a22676-b5e9-43e4-86c9-0a6ffd9e8ca8","Groundwater Vulnerability in a Megacity Under Climate and Economic Changes: A Coupled Sociohydrological Analysis","Li, Bin (Pearl River Water Resources Research Institute; Southern University of Science and Technology); Zheng, Yi (Southern University of Science and Technology); Di Baldassarre, Giuliano (Uppsala University); Xu, Peng (Southern University of Science and Technology); Pande, S. (TU Delft Water Resources); Sivapalan, Murugesu (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)","","2023","Groundwater depletion has become increasingly challenging, and many cities worldwide have adopted drastic policies to relieve water stress due to socioeconomic growth. Located on the declining aquifer of the North China Plain, Beijing, for example, has developed plans to limit the size of the city’s population. However, the effect of population displacement under uncertain macroeconomic and climate change remains ambiguous. We adopt a sociohydrological model, with explicit consideration of the dynamics of human-water interactions, to explore the groundwater vulnerability of Beijing. We investigate how human response might shape the development trajectories of the groundwater-population-economy system under different macroscale economic and climate scenarios. Furthermore, we use a machine learning algorithm to identify the decisive factors to be considered for reducing groundwater vulnerability. Our results show that while rapid external economic development or larger annual average precipitation would enable recovery of the groundwater table in the short term, they may slacken human water shortage awareness and result in more acute groundwater depletion in the long run. Strengthening policymaker perceptions of groundwater depletion would prompt timely response policies for controlling population size. Improving the quantity and quality of labor force input to economic development would avoid downturns in the economy due to labor shortages. The outcomes of this study suggest that these strategies would effectively reduce groundwater vulnerability in the long run without causing severe socioeconomic recession. These findings highlight the importance of endogenizing human behavioral dynamics in sustainable urban water management.","climate change; groundwater; modeling; sociohydrology; water management; water supply","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:fc5e3f4d-5b7f-47cb-87f0-a7c070656faf","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:fc5e3f4d-5b7f-47cb-87f0-a7c070656faf","Historical Shifts in Seasonality and Timing of Extreme Precipitation","Gründemann, Gaby J. (TU Delft Water Resources; University of Saskatchewan); Zorzetto, E. (Princeton University); van de Giesen, N.C. (TU Delft Water Resources); van der Ent, R.J. (TU Delft Water Resources)","","2023","Global warming impacts the hydrological cycle, affecting the seasonality and timing of extreme precipitation. Understanding historical changes in extreme precipitation occurrence is crucial for assessing their impacts. This study uses relative entropy to analyze historical changes in seasonality and timing of extreme daily precipitation occurrences on the global domain for 63 years of fifth generation of the European Reanalysis reanalysis data. Our analysis reveals distinct regional patterns of change. During the second half of the 20th century, Africa and Asia experienced high clustering of precipitation extremes. Over the past 60 years, clustering increased in Africa while becoming more spread out in Asia. North America and Australia had initially lower clustering and showed slight increases over time. Extreme events in extra-tropical land regions mainly occurred in summer, with modest shifts in timing. These findings have implications for risk assessments of natural hazard like flash floods and landslides, emphasizing the necessity for region-specific adaptation strategies.","climate change; extreme precipitation; global domain; reanalysis; relative entropy; seasonality; OA-Fund TU Delft","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:91920944-ef46-4329-b6d7-c3f779269943","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:91920944-ef46-4329-b6d7-c3f779269943","Toward the development of a conceptual framework for the complex interaction between environmental changes and rural-urban migration","Mianabadi, Ameneh (Graduate University of Advanced Technology); Davary, Kamran (Ferdowsi University of Mashhad); Mianabadi, Hojjat (Tarbiat Modares University); Kolahi, Mahdi (Ferdowsi University of Mashhad); Mostert, E. (TU Delft Water Resources)","","2023","Environmental changes can result in dramatic increases in human migration as households become unable to adapt to such changes. Addressing environmental migration is a complex puzzle that can become a wicked problem. Despite the growing literature on the nexus between environmental change and migration, the inextricable link between nature and society has made it difficult to establish causal relations between the two. To examine the relationship between environmental change and migration, it is necessary to develop a conceptual model that includes environmental changes as potential causes of rural-urban migration (RUM). Such a model should be built on an enhanced understanding of the different factors that stimulate environmentally induced RUM. This paper proposes such a model, focusing on loss of agricultural land, loss of agricultural productivity and the economic repercussions of these losses. The model is based on the model of Perch-Nielsen et al. but extends this model by incorporating additional factors. In our model, the three leading causes of RUM are climate change, human maladaptive activities, and hydro-climatic disasters (the push factors). In addition, there may be pull factors in the cities. RUM may be counteracted or reduced by governmental policy and individuals' characteristics. The model was applied to Iran. The results show that the model can help to bridge the knowledge gap regarding environmentally induced RUM and may inform policymaking on RUM and related issues, such as environmental management and adaptation to climate change.","climate change; environmental migration; human maladaptive activities; hydro-climatic disasters; rural-urban migration","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:68321a61-d43e-469d-a598-1f9621d8057b","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:68321a61-d43e-469d-a598-1f9621d8057b","The projection of climate change impact on the fatigue damage of offshore floating photovoltaic structures","Zou, Tao (Ocean University of China; Jiangsu University of Science and Technology); Niu, Xinbo (Jiangsu University of Science and Technology); Ji, Xingda (Ocean University of China; Jiangsu University of Science and Technology); Chen, X. (TU Delft Offshore and Dredging Engineering); Tao, Longbin (Ocean University of China; University of Strathclyde; Jiangsu University of Science and Technology)","","2023","In marine environment, floating photovoltaic (FPV) plants are subjected to wind, wave and current loadings. Waves are the primary source of fatigue damage for FPVs. The climate change may accumulatively affect the wave conditions, which may result in the overestimation or underestimation of fatigue damage. This paper aims to present a projection method to evaluate the climate change impact on fatigue damage of offshore FPVs in the future. Firstly, climate scenarios are selected to project the global radiative forcing level over decadal or century time scales. Secondly, global climate models are coupled to wind driven wave models to project the long-term sea states in the future. At last, fatigue assessment is conducted to evaluate the impact of climate change on fatigue damage of FPVs. A case study is demonstrated in the North Sea. A global-local method of fatigue calculation is utilized to calculate the annual fatigue damage on the FPVs’ joints. The conclusions indicate that there are decreasing trends of significant wave height and annual fatigue damage in the North Sea with the high emission of greenhouse gases. The fatigue design of FPVs based on the current wave scatter diagrams may be conservative in the future. The manufacture cost of FPVs can be reduced to some extent, which is beneficial to the FPV manufacturers.","climate change; fatigue damage; floating photovoltaic; global climate model; wind-driven wave model","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Offshore and Dredging Engineering","","",""
"uuid:6f002567-0744-4c28-931c-32b3467f1be1","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:6f002567-0744-4c28-931c-32b3467f1be1","Centennial Channel Response to Climate Change in an Engineered River","Ylla Arbos, C. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering); Blom, A. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering); Sloff, C.J. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering; Deltares); Schielen, R.M.J. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering; Rijkswaterstaat)","","2023","Human intervention makes river channels adjust their slope and bed surface grain size as they transition to a new equilibrium state in response to engineering measures. Climate change alters the river controls through hydrograph changes and sea level rise. We assess how channel response to climate change compares to channel response to human intervention over this century (2000–2100), focusing on a 300-km reach of the Rhine River. We set up a schematized numerical model representative of the current (1990–2020), non-graded state of the river, and subject it to scenarios for the hydrograph, sediment flux, and sea level rise. We conclude that the lower Rhine River will continue to adjust to past channelization measures in 2100 through channel bed incision. This response slows down as the river approaches its new equilibrium state. Channel response to climate change is dominated by hydrograph changes, which increasingly enhance incision, rather than sea level rise.","channel bed incision; channel response; climate change; climate scenarios; gravel-bed rivers; human intervention","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering","","",""
"uuid:727bf626-c2d5-4be3-9b63-fc751cd3cd9b","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:727bf626-c2d5-4be3-9b63-fc751cd3cd9b","Global Projections of Storm Surges Using High-Resolution CMIP6 Climate Models","Muis, Sanne (Deltares; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H. (Deltares; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Antolínez, José A. Á. (TU Delft Coastal Engineering); Dullaart, Job C. (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Erikson, Li (Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center); Haarsma, Rein J. (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)); Apecechea, Maialen Irazoqui (Mercator Ocean); Mengel, Matthias (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research); Verlaan, M. (TU Delft Mathematical Physics; Deltares)","","2023","In the coming decades, coastal flooding will become more frequent due to sea-level rise and potential changes in storms. To produce global storm surge projections from 1950 to 2050, we force the Global Tide and Surge Model with a ∼25-km resolution climate model ensemble from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). This is the first time that such a high-resolution ensemble is used to assess changes in future storm surges across the globe. We validate the present epoch (1985–2014) against the ERA5 climate reanalysis, which shows a good overall agreement. However, there is a clear spatial bias with generally a positive bias in coastal areas along semi-enclosed seas and negative bias in equatorial regions. Comparing the future epoch (2021–2050) against the historical epoch (1951–1980), we project ensemble-median changes up to 0.1 (or 20%) in the 1 in 10-year storm surge levels. These changes are not uniform across the globe with decreases along the coast of Mediterranean and northern Africa and southern Australia and increases along the south coast of Australia and Alaska. There are also increases along (parts) of the coasts of northern Caribbean, eastern Africa, China and the Korean peninsula, but with less agreement among the HighResMIP ensemble. Information resulting from this study can be used to inform broad-scale assessment of coastal impacts under future climate change.","climate change; climate projections; extreme sea levels; global climate model; hydrodynamic modeling; storm surge","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Coastal Engineering","","",""
"uuid:d20565f5-b704-487c-9622-afe47ee7efbd","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d20565f5-b704-487c-9622-afe47ee7efbd","Shower thoughts: why scientists should spend more time in the rain","Van Stan, John T. (Cleveland State University); Allen, Scott T. (University of Nevada); Aubrey, Douglas P. (University of Georgia); Carter Berry, Z. (Wake Forest University); Biddick, Matthew (Technische Universität München); Coenders-Gerrits, Miriam (TU Delft Water Resources); Giordani, Paolo (University of Genova); Gotsch, Sybil G. (University of Kentucky); Gutmann, Ethan D. (University Corporation for Atmospheric Research)","","2023","Stormwater is a vital resource and dynamic driver of terrestrial ecosystem processes. However, processes controlling interactions during and shortly after storms are often poorly seen and poorly sensed when direct observations are substituted with technological ones. We discuss how human observations complement technological ones and the benefits of scientists spending more time in the storm. Human observation can reveal ephemeral storm-related phenomena such as biogeochemical hot moments, organismal responses, and sedimentary processes that can then be explored in greater resolution using sensors and virtual experiments. Storm-related phenomena trigger lasting, oversized impacts on hydrologic and biogeochemical processes, organismal traits or functions, and ecosystem services at all scales. We provide examples of phenomena in forests, across disciplines and scales, that have been overlooked in past research to inspire mindful, holistic observation of ecosystems during storms. We conclude that technological observations alone are insufficient to trace the process complexity and unpredictability of fleeting biogeochemical or ecological events without the shower thoughts produced by scientists' human sensory and cognitive systems during storms.","climate change; condensation; ecosystem functioning; extreme event biogeochemistry; field and laboratory studies; precipitation; sampling bias","en","review","","","","","","","","","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:ff7b419c-aba7-49ed-99dd-c427762abf84","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:ff7b419c-aba7-49ed-99dd-c427762abf84","Enabling yeast replication in extreme cold and heat","Laman Trip, J.D.S. (TU Delft BN/Greg Bokinsky Lab; TU Delft BN/Bionanoscience)","Youk, H.O. (promotor); Blanter, Y.M. (promotor); Bokinsky, G.E. (copromotor); Delft University of Technology (degree granting institution)","2022","Open questions are whether life can be enabled in uninhabitable environments, and whether there is a limit to howmuch one can tune the speed of proliferation. Answering such questions has broad implications. It may reveal whether we can live in unforeseen habitats, whether we can slow down aging, and whether there are limits to lifespan. In this dissertation, we explore such questions for the budding yeast by changing the temperature. We will use temperature, a physical parameter, as a knob to tune the speed of cellular life. Temperature affects all organisms and habitats, and is of contemporary interest in light of climate change. Indeed, cells of microbes, plants and cold-blooded animals often endure temperatures that can be considered extreme. For reference, budding yeast lives comfortably at 30 ◦C and has a doubling time of roughly 1.5 hours – the time a cell needs to grow and divide into two cells. During our studies, we will elucidate the common principles that govern the life of yeast at extreme temperatures – how a cell survives, grows, replicates, ages, and dies. We combine models, experiments and measurements of single cells and at amolecular level, and integrate these into a systems-level view of the life of yeast at extreme temperatures..","yeast; temperature; reactive oxygen species; glutathione; proliferation; cooperation; lifespan; design principles; systems biology; aging; climate change","en","doctoral thesis","","978-90-8593-522-3","","","","","","2022-06-08","","BN/Bionanoscience","BN/Greg Bokinsky Lab","","",""
"uuid:d9722f27-fe58-4467-9687-c51b420b6b05","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d9722f27-fe58-4467-9687-c51b420b6b05","Uncertainties in the Projected Patterns of Wave-Driven Longshore Sediment Transport Along a Non-straight Coastline","Zarifsanayei, Amin Reza (Griffith University); Antolínez, José A. Á. (TU Delft Coastal Engineering); Etemad-Shahidi, Amir (Edith Cowan University; Griffith University); Cartwright, Nick (Griffith University); Strauss, Darrell (Griffith University); Lemos, Gil (University of Lisbon)","","2022","This study quantifies the uncertainties in the projected changes in potential longshore sediment transport (LST) rates along a non-straight coastline. Four main sources of uncertainty, including the choice of emission scenarios, Global Circulation Model-driven offshore wave datasets (GCM-Ws), LST models, and their non-linear interactions were addressed through two ensemble modelling frameworks. The first ensemble consisted of the offshore wave forcing conditions without any bias correction (i.e., wave parameters extracted from eight datasets of GCM-Ws for baseline period 1979–2005, and future period 2081–2100 under two emission scenarios), a hybrid wave transformation method, and eight LST models (i.e., four bulk formulae, four process-based models). The differentiating factor of the second ensemble was the application of bias correction to the GCM-Ws, using a hindcast dataset as the reference. All ensemble members were weighted according to their performance to reproduce the reference LST patterns for the baseline period. Additionally, the total uncertainty of the LST projections was decomposed into the main sources and their interactions using the ANOVA method. Finally, the robustness of the LST projections was checked. Comparison of the projected changes in LST rates obtained from two ensembles indicated that the bias correction could relatively reduce the ranges of the uncertainty in the LST projections. On the annual scale, the contribution of emission scenarios, GCM-Ws, LST models and non-linear interactions to the total uncertainty was about 10–20, 35–50, 5–15, and 30–35%, respectively. Overall, the weighted means of the ensembles reported a decrease in net annual mean LST rates (less than 10% under RCP 4.5, a 10–20% under RCP 8.5). However, no robust projected changes in LST rates on annual and seasonal scales were found, questioning any ultimate decision being made using the means of the projected changes.","uncertainty; longshore sediment transport; ensemble modelling; climate change; projection of wavedriven sediment transport patterns; robustness of projections","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Coastal Engineering","","",""
"uuid:1eb65167-693e-4a05-b078-ded793046e26","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:1eb65167-693e-4a05-b078-ded793046e26","Indoor Summer Thermal Comfort in a Changing Climate: The Case of a Nearly Zero Energy House in Wallonia (Belgium)","Dartevelle, Olivier (Université Catholique de Louvain); Altomonte, Sergio (Université Catholique de Louvain); Masy, Gabrielle (Université Catholique de Louvain); Mlecnik, E. (TU Delft Real Estate Management); van Moeseke, Geoffrey (Université Catholique de Louvain)","","2022","While the potential impact of climate change mitigation measures is well documented in building sciences literature, there are only relatively sparse studies focusing on the efficiency of adaptation strategies. This paper aims to contribute to this topic by evaluating the extent to which the design of a typical nearly Zero Energy Buildling (nZEB) house in Wallonia (Belgium), and its current operation, could provide summer thermal comfort in a changing climate. Based on calibrated whole building energy simulations, and on the integration of future climate data directly derived from a high-resolution climate model, this study evaluates the potential evolution of overheating risks in the living room and in the main bedroom of the house. Discussing the compliance with existing overheating criteria, the study shows that the passive strategies currently deployed in the house might not be sufficient to guarantee summer thermal comfort especially in the bedroom, and that other strategies might be necessary in the future to limit the use of active cooling systems and curb their environmental impacts. This study concludes that considering the potential of these strategies to guarantee summer thermal comfort in a changing climate should be a priority for the design of nZEB houses (and their related policies) also in temperate oceanic climates.","nearly Zero Energy Buildings; climate change; summer thermal comfort; overheating","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Real Estate Management","","",""
"uuid:18829d68-0dad-4977-a600-12a0272ebed5","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:18829d68-0dad-4977-a600-12a0272ebed5","Moral Reflection with AI Necessary or Redundant?","Suresh Iyer, A. (TU Delft Ethics & Philosophy of Technology)","Schlobach, Stefan (editor); Perez-Ortiz, Maria (editor); Tielman, Myrthe (editor)","2022","Moral support with AI has been gaining traction. The proponents of moral support with AI claim that some of the more problematic behavioural patterns of humans can be resolved with the help of AI, such as inability to extend moral concern to global level problems like climate change and refugee crisis. They offer a variety of ways of doing so- through provision of more information, or helping them work through the procedural aspect of moral decision-making, or help them work through their normative positions. I disagree with the solution being offered because I don't see this as a problem which can be solved at an individual level. As the problems they want to fix are deep, systemic, institutional, socio-political problems, which may not be fixed by a moral support with AI system.","biases; climate change; Moral support with AI","en","conference paper","IOS Press","","","","","","","","","","Ethics & Philosophy of Technology","","",""
"uuid:3145dc93-f1a1-4843-a5cf-5cb20187907a","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:3145dc93-f1a1-4843-a5cf-5cb20187907a","Climate change adaptation policy and planning for cultural heritage in low- and middle-income countries","Daly, Cathy (University of Lincoln); Fatorić, Sandra (TU Delft History, Form & Aesthetics); Carmichael, Bethune (Australian National University); Pittungnapoo, Witiya (Naresuan University); Adetunji, Olufemi (Swinburne University of Technology); Hollesen, Jørgen (National Museum of Denmark); Nakhaei, Masoud (Pasargadae World Heritage Research Centre); Diaz, Alberto Herrera (Herrera Salas Arquitectos)","","2022","Climate change threatens archaeological sites and cultural landscapes globally. While to date, awareness and action around cultural heritage and climate change adaptation planning has focused on Europe and North America, in this article, the authors address adaptation policy and measures for heritage sites in low- and middle-income countries. Using a review of national adaptation plans, expert survey and five case studies, results show the varied climate change adaptation responses across four continents, their strengths and weaknesses, and the barriers to be addressed to ensure better integration of cultural heritage in climate change adaptation planning.","climate change; adaptation plans; cultural heritage; policy making; place-based solutions; community engagement","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","History, Form & Aesthetics","","",""
"uuid:38df28c0-6fe4-48b7-9b33-b33ce4423a41","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:38df28c0-6fe4-48b7-9b33-b33ce4423a41","Exergy Return on Exergy Investment and CO2Intensity of the Underground Biomethanation Process","Farajzadeh, R. (TU Delft Reservoir Engineering; Shell Global Solutions International B.V.); Lomans, Bartholomeus Petrus (Shell Global Solutions International B.V.; Wageningen University & Research); Hajibeygi, H. (TU Delft Reservoir Engineering); Bruining, J. (TU Delft Reservoir Engineering)","","2022","This paper presents an assessment of the life-cycle exergetic efficiency and CO2 footprint of the underground biomethanation process. The subsurface formation, hosting microorganisms required for the reaction, is utilized to convert CO2 and green (produced from renewable energy) hydrogen to the so-called ""green""or synthetic methane. The net exergy gain and CO2 intensity of the biomethanation process are compared to the alternative options of (1) green H2 storage (no energy upgrading process to CH4) and (2) fossil-based CH4 with carbon capture and storage (CCS), i.e., blue CH4. It is found that with the current state of the technology and within the assumptions of this study, the exergy return on the exergy invested for underground biomethanation does not outperform the direct storage and utilization of green H2. The maximum exergetic efficiency of the biomethanation process is calculated to be 15-33% for electricity and 36-47% for heating, while the overall exergetic efficiency of the direct use of H2 for electricity is estimated to be between 20 and 61%. Moreover, the energy produced from the underground biomethanation process has the largest CO2 intensity among the studied options. Depending on the technology used in the CCS and hydrogen production stages, the CO2 intensity of the electricity generated from synthetic CH4 can be as large as 142 g CO2/MJe, which is at least 56-73% larger than those of the two other studied cases.","biomethanation; carbon dioxide; climate change; energy storage; hydrogen; subsurface reactor; synthetic methane","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Reservoir Engineering","","",""
"uuid:274d9e2d-7c0d-479a-8882-963ed4e9a36d","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:274d9e2d-7c0d-479a-8882-963ed4e9a36d","Limitations to coral recovery along an environmental stress gradient","Doropoulos, Christopher (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere); Gómez-Lemos, Luis A. (Universidad Nacional de Colombia); Salee, Kinam (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere); McLaughlin, M. James (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere); Tebben, Jan (Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung); van Koningsveld, M. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering; Van Oord Dredging and Marine Contractors); Feng, Ming (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere); Babcock, Russell C. (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)","","2022","Positive feedbacks driving habitat-forming species recovery and population growth are often lost as ecosystems degrade. For such systems, identifying mechanisms that limit the re-establishment of critical positive feedbacks is key to facilitating recovery. Theory predicts the primary drivers limiting system recovery shift from biological to physical as abiotic stress increases, but recent work has demonstrated that this seldom happens. We combined field and laboratory experiments to identify variation in limitations to coral recovery along an environmental stress gradient at Ningaloo Reef and Exmouth Gulf in northwest Australia. Many reefs in the region are coral depauperate due to recent cyclones and thermal stress. In general, recovery trajectories are prolonged due to limited coral recruitment. Consistent with theory, clearer water reefs under low thermal stress appear limited by biological interactions: competition with turf algae caused high mortality of newly settled corals and upright macroalgal stands drove mortality in transplanted juvenile corals. Laboratory experiments showed a positive relationship between crustose coralline algae cover and coral settlement, but only in the absence of sedimentation. Contrary to expectation, coral recovery does not appear limited by the survival or growth of recruits on turbid reefs under higher thermal stress, but to exceptionally low larval supply. Laboratory experiments showed that larval survival and settlement are unaffected by seawater quality across the study region. Rather, connectivity models predicted that many of the more turbid reefs in the Gulf are predominantly self seeded, receiving limited supply under degraded reef states. Overall, we find that the influence of oceanography can overwhelm the influences of physical and biological interactions on recovery potential at locations where environmental stressors are high, whereas populations in relatively benign physical conditions are predominantly structured by local ecological drivers. Such context-dependent information can help guide expectations and assist managers in optimizing strategies for spatial conservation planning for system recovery.","climate change; coral recruitment; disturbance; population recovery","en","journal article","","","","","","Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.","","2023-07-01","","","Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering","","",""
"uuid:2ca709b3-a009-46f4-90ec-f570d37ed357","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:2ca709b3-a009-46f4-90ec-f570d37ed357","A probabilistic climate change assessment for Europe","Moghim, Sanaz (Sharif University of Technology); Teuling, Adriaan J. (Wageningen University & Research); Uijlenhoet, R. (TU Delft Water Resources; TU Delft Water Management; Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management Group; Wageningen University & Research)","","2022","Globally, the impacts of climate change can vary across different regions. This study uses a probability framework to evaluate recent historical (1976–2016) and near-future projected (until 2049) climate change across Europe using Climate Research Unit and ensemble climate model datasets (under RCPs 2.6 and 8.5). A historical assessment shows that although the east and west of the domain experienced the largest and smallest increase in temperature, changes in precipitation are not as smooth as temperature. Results indicate that the maximum changes between distributions of the variables (temperature and precipitation) mainly occur at extreme percentiles (e.g., 10% and 90%). A group analysis of four subregions of Europe, namely east (G1), north (G2), west/south (G3), and UK/Ireland (G4), shows that G1 and G4 are expected to have the largest increase in temperature and precipitation extremes, respectively. Although maximum increases in temperature in G3 and G4 occur at larger percentiles, G1 and G2 experience maximum increases at both large and small percentiles. The maximum increase of precipitation over the study domain, however, occurs mainly at larger extremes. To quantify changes in the distribution of projection (2020–2049) relative to the historical reference (1976–2005), two measures are defined, namely a change in occurrences (KS statistic) and intensities at different quantiles (Δ). Results confirm that the temperature distribution tends to shift to higher temperatures. Changes in distribution and extremes of precipitation are spatially variable. Furthermore, extremes are expected to be intensified under RCP 8.5. The quantile analysis and defined measures reveal changes in the entire probability distribution, reflecting possible climate changes in the future.","climate change; climate indicators; extreme weather events; impact assessment; probabilistic framework; quantile analysis","en","journal article","","","","","","Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.","","2022-09-05","","Water Management","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:d17ad39d-edda-491b-829c-4182fc64e729","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d17ad39d-edda-491b-829c-4182fc64e729","Precipitation Trends Analysis Using Gridded Dynamic Sampling Zones: Case Study Yangtze Delta Megalopolis","Liu, Xiaolong (Southeast University; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education); Fu, Dafang (Southeast University); Zevenbergen, C. (TU Delft Urban Design; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education); Yu, Meixiu (Hohai University); Kumar, Alagarasan Jagadeesh (Jiangsu University)","","2022","As a result of the fast growth of remote sensing and data assimilation technology, many global land use land cover (LULC) and climate reanalysis data sets have been used to advance our understanding of climate and environmental change. This paper investigates the precipitation variations of the Yangtze Delta Megalopolis by using precipitation reanalysis data under conditions of dynamic urban sprawl. Compared with current precipitation characteristic analyses, which are often based on a limited number of ground rainfall stations, the approach followed in this study comprises a grid-based statistical method using large sets of samples with a uniform distribution and a same representative grid area. This novel approach of dynamic sampling is applied in this study to overcome the temporal and spatial inconsistency of stationary sampling. This approach allows to examine the impact of urbanization on regional precipitation characteristics. The Yangtze Delta Megalopolis (YDM) region, one of the most developed regions in China, was selected as a case study to evaluate the impact of urbanization on subsequent precipitation features. The results reveal that the annual total precipitation (TP) and the maximum daily precipitation (MDP) in both urban and non-urban areas of the YDM region generally have increased during the past 30 years. Hence, the region has become increasingly humid. Extrema of annual MDP and TP show obvious spatial characteristics, in which most maxima are located in the southern part of YDM while minima are more concentrated in the northern part. This newly developed approach has potentials for application in studies where underlying surface features exhibit rapid alterations. The findings of this case study provide relevant information for planning and design of regional water resources management, flood risk management, and planning of the urban drainage system of the YDM region.","climate change; land use change; precipitation; statistical dynamic sampling; trend analysis; urbanization; Yangtze Delta megalopolis","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Urban Design","","",""
"uuid:cd3ac958-c305-4171-a945-259e4f4f7069","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:cd3ac958-c305-4171-a945-259e4f4f7069","Agent-based modeling to integrate elements from different disciplines for ambitious climate policy","Savin, Ivan (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona; Ural Federal University); Creutzig, Felix (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change; Technical University of Berlin); Filatova, T. (TU Delft Multi Actor Systems; TU Delft Policy Analysis); Foramitti, Joël (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Konc, Théo (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona; Technical University of Berlin; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research); Niamir, Leila (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg); Safarzynska, Karolina (University of Warsaw); van den Bergh, Jeroen (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona; Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA); Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)","","2022","Ambitious climate mitigation policies face social and political resistance. One reason is that existing policies insufficiently capture the diversity of relevant insights from the social sciences about potential policy outcomes. We argue that agent-based models can serve as a powerful tool for integration of elements from different disciplines. Having such a common platform will enable a more complete assessment of climate policies, in terms of criteria like effectiveness, equity and public support. This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling > Knowledge Generation with Models The Carbon Economy and Climate Mitigation > Policies, Instruments, Lifestyles, Behavior Policy and Governance > Multilevel and Transnational Climate Change Governance.","agent-based modelling; climate change; policy acceptability; policy integration; policy stringency","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","Multi Actor Systems","Policy Analysis","","",""
"uuid:9c1a2d34-dd48-46ce-8f5d-ff064ef2757b","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:9c1a2d34-dd48-46ce-8f5d-ff064ef2757b","Next Generation Gravity Mission Elements of the Mass Change and Geoscience International Constellation: From Orbit Selection to Instrument and Mission Design","Massotti, Luca (European Space Agency (ESA)); Siemes, C. (TU Delft Astrodynamics & Space Missions); March, G. (European Space Agency (ESA)); Haagmans, Roger (European Space Agency (ESA)); Silvestrin, Pierluigi (European Space Agency (ESA))","","2021","ESA’s Next Generation Gravity Mission (NGGM) is a candidate Mission of Opportunity for ESA–NASA cooperation in the frame of the Mass Change and Geosciences International Constellation (MAGIC). The mission aims at enabling long-term monitoring of the temporal variations of Earth’s gravity field at relatively high temporal (down to 3 days) and increased spatial resolutions (up to 100 km) at longer time intervals. This implies also that time series of GRACE and GRACE-FO can be extended towards a climate series. Such variations carry information about mass change induced by the water cycle and the related mass exchange among atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere, land and solid Earth and will complete our picture of global and climate change. The main observable is the variation of the distance between two satellites measured by a ranging instrument. This is complemented by accelerometers that measure the nongravitational accelerations, which need to be reduced from ranging measurements to obtain the gravity signal. The preferred satellite constellation comprises one satellite pair in a near-polar and another in an inclined circular orbit. The paper focuses on the orbit selection methods for optimizing the spatial sampling for multiple temporal resolutions and then on the methodology for deriving the engineering requirements for the space segment, together with a discussion on the main mission parameters.","orbit selection; gravity mission; global change; mass change; climate change; hydrology; cryosphere; oceanography; solid Earth; neutral atmosphere; laser interferometer; satellite formation; drag compensation","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Astrodynamics & Space Missions","","",""
"uuid:002268b7-732b-49f1-b806-50146396a0ab","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:002268b7-732b-49f1-b806-50146396a0ab","Coral Reef Restorations Can Be Optimized to Reduce Coastal Flooding Hazards","Roelvink, Floortje E. (Deltares); Storlazzi, Curt D. (United States Geological Survey); van Dongeren, Ap R. (Deltares; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education); Pearson, S.G. (TU Delft Coastal Engineering; Deltares)","","2021","Coral reefs are effective natural coastal flood barriers that protect adjacent communities. Coral degradation compromises the coastal protection value of reefs while also reducing their other ecosystem services, making them a target for restoration. Here we provide a physics-based evaluation of how coral restoration can reduce coastal flooding for various types of reefs. Wave-driven flooding reduction is greatest for broader, shallower restorations on the upper fore reef and between the middle of the reef flat and the shoreline than for deeper locations on the fore reef or at the reef crest. These results indicate that to increase the coastal hazard risk reduction potential of reef restoration, more physically robust species of coral need to be outplanted to shallower, more energetic locations than more fragile, faster-growing species primarily being grown in coral nurseries. The optimization and quantification of coral reef restoration efforts to reduce coastal flooding may open hazard risk reduction funding for conservation purposes.","climate change; coastal protection; coastal risk; coral reefs; ecosystem services; reef degradation; reef restoration; wave runup","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Coastal Engineering","","",""
"uuid:6c7d533b-634b-4de2-ad32-8c414132de95","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:6c7d533b-634b-4de2-ad32-8c414132de95","Scaling and responses of extreme hourly precipitation in three climate experiments with a convection-permitting model","Lenderink, G. (TU Delft Atmospheric Remote Sensing; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)); de Vries, Hylke (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)); Fowler, Hayley J. (Newcastle University); Barbero, Renaud (Newcastle University; INRAE); van Ulft, Bert (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)); van Meijgaard, Erik (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))","","2021","It is widely recognized that future rainfall extremes will intensify. This expectation is tied to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation, stating that the maximum water vapour content in the atmosphere increases by 6-7% per degree warming. Scaling rates for the dependency of hourly precipitation extremes on near-surface (dew point) temperature derived from day-to-day variability have been found to exceed this relation (super-CC). However, both the applicability of this approach in a long-term climate change context, and the physical realism of super-CC rates have been questioned. Here, we analyse three different climate change experiments with a convection-permitting model over Western Europe: simple uniform-warming, 11-year pseudo-global warming and 11-year global climate model driven. The uniform-warming experiment results in consistent increases to the intensity of hourly rainfall extremes of approximately 11% per degree for moderate to high extremes. The other two, more realistic, experiments show smaller increases-usually at or below the CC rate-for moderate extremes, mostly resulting from significant decreases to rainfall occurrence. However, changes to the most extreme events are broadly consistent with 1.5-2 times the CC rate (10-14% per degree), as predicted from the present-day scaling rate for the highest percentiles. This result has important implications for climate adaptation. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks'.","climate change; hourly precipitation extremes; precipitation scaling","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Atmospheric Remote Sensing","","",""
"uuid:7c359de3-07a4-406e-b916-424b5186a75f","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:7c359de3-07a4-406e-b916-424b5186a75f","Guidelines for Studying Diverse Types of Compound Weather and Climate Events","Bevacqua, Emanuele (Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ; University of Reading); De Michele, Carlo (Politecnico di Milano); Manning, Colin (Newcastle University); Couasnon, A.A.O. (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Ribeiro, Andreia F.S. (ETH Zürich; University of Lisbon); Ramos, Alexandre M. (University of Lisbon); Ragno, E. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk); Saunders, Kate (Queensland University of Technology); Zhang, Tianyi (Chinese Academy of Sciences)","","2021","Compound weather and climate events are combinations of climate drivers and/or hazards that contribute to societal or environmental risk. Studying compound events often requires a multidisciplinary approach combining domain knowledge of the underlying processes with, for example, statistical methods and climate model outputs. Recently, to aid the development of research on compound events, four compound event types were introduced, namely (a) preconditioned, (b) multivariate, (c) temporally compounding, and (d) spatially compounding events. However, guidelines on how to study these types of events are still lacking. Here, we consider four case studies, each associated with a specific event type and a research question, to illustrate how the key elements of compound events (e.g., analytical tools and relevant physical effects) can be identified. These case studies show that (a) impacts on crops from hot and dry summers can be exacerbated by preconditioning effects of dry and bright springs. (b) Assessing compound coastal flooding in Perth (Australia) requires considering the dynamics of a non-stationary multivariate process. For instance, future mean sea-level rise will lead to the emergence of concurrent coastal and fluvial extremes, enhancing compound flooding risk. (c) In Portugal, deep-landslides are often caused by temporal clusters of moderate precipitation events. Finally, (d) crop yield failures in France and Germany are strongly correlated, threatening European food security through spatially compounding effects. These analyses allow for identifying general recommendations for studying compound events. Overall, our insights can serve as a blueprint for compound event analysis across disciplines and sectors.","climate change; compound events; environmental risk; guidelines; multidisciplinary; typology","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk","","",""
"uuid:7ee94817-5884-4c32-8ee6-0e5d64b2adae","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:7ee94817-5884-4c32-8ee6-0e5d64b2adae","Implications of climate change for railway infrastructure","Palin, Erika J. (Met Office); Stipanovic Oslakovic, Irina (University of Twente; Infra Plan Consulting Ltd.); Gavin, Kenneth (TU Delft Geo-engineering); Quinn, Andrew (University of Birmingham)","","2021","Weather phenomena can result in severe impacts on railway infrastructure. In future, projected changes to the frequency and/or intensity of extreme weather events could change weather–infrastructure risk profiles. Infrastructure owners and operators need to manage current weather impacts and put in place adequate plans to anticipate and adapt to changes in future weather risks, or mitigate the impacts arising from those risks. The assessment of the risk posed to railway infrastructure from current and future weather is dependent on a good understanding of the constituent components of risk: hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. A good understanding of the baseline and projected future risk is needed in order to understand the potential benefits of various climate change adaptation actions. Traditional risk assessment methods need some modification in order to be applied to climate change timescales, for which decisions need to be made under deep uncertainty. This review paper highlights some key challenges for assessing the risk, including: managing uncertainties; understanding weather-impact relationships and how they could change with climate change; assessing the costs of current and future weather impacts and the potential cost versus benefit of adaptation; and understanding practices and tools for adapting railway infrastructure. The literature reveals examples of progress and good practice in all these areas, providing scope for effective knowledge-sharing—across the railway infrastructure and other sectors—in support of infrastructure resilience and adaptation.
−1 to landfall location, and 0.1 m (m s−1)−1 to wind speed in Shanghai during landfall. The landfall location and intensity are comparably important to surge variation. However, based on a plausible range of reported trends of TC poleward migration and intensity, the potential surge hazard due to poleward migration is estimated to be about three times larger than that by intensity change. The long-term surge risk in Shanghai is therefore substantially more sensitive to changes of TC track and landfall location than intensity. This may also be true elsewhere and in the future.","climate change; landfall; storm surge; tropical cyclone","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Coastal Engineering","","",""
"uuid:938611e3-4a2d-4944-a010-bc394055ed34","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:938611e3-4a2d-4944-a010-bc394055ed34","A GPU-based integrated simulation framework for modelling of complex subsurface applications","Khait, M. (TU Delft Reservoir Engineering); Voskov, D.V. (TU Delft Reservoir Engineering; Stanford University)","","2021","Alternative to CPU computing architectures, such as GPU, continue to evolve increasing the gap in peak memory bandwidth achievable on a conventional workstation or laptop. Such architectures are attractive for reservoir simulation, which performance is generally bounded by system memory bandwidth. However, to harvest the benefit of a new architecture, the source code has to be inevitably rewritten, sometimes almost completely. One of the biggest challenges here is to refactor the Jacobian assembly which typically involves large volumes of code and complex data processing. We demonstrate an effective and general way to simplify the linearization stage extracting complex physics-related computations from the main simulation loop and leaving only an algebraic multi-linear interpolation kernel instead. In this work, we provide the detailed description of simulation performance benefits from execution of the entire nonlinear loop on the GPU platform. We evaluate the computational performance of Delft Advanced Research Terra Simulator (DARTS) for various subsurface applications of practical interest on both CPU and GPU platforms, comparing particular workflow phases including Jacobian assembly and linear system solution with both stages of the Constraint Pressure Residual preconditioner.","sustainable development; enhanced recovery; reservoir characterization; climate change; subsurface storage; social responsibility; upstream oil & gas; simulation; renewable energy; peak memory bandwidth","en","conference paper","Society of Petroleum Engineers","","","","","Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.","","2022-04-19","","","Reservoir Engineering","","",""
"uuid:194de17c-7d59-4be4-b8ee-5d1d32318036","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:194de17c-7d59-4be4-b8ee-5d1d32318036","Process of energy conservation in the extremely haloalkaliphilic methyl-reducing methanogen Methanonatronarchaeum thermophilum","Steiniger, Fabian (Universität Bonn); Sorokin, Dimitry Y. (TU Delft BT/Environmental Biotechnology; Russian Academy of Sciences); Deppenmeier, Uwe (Universität Bonn)","","2021","The recently isolated methanogen Methanonatronarchaeum thermophilum is an extremely haloalkaliphilic and moderately thermophilic archaeon and belongs to the novel class Methanonatronarchaeia in the phylum Halobacteriota. The knowledge about the physiology and biochemistry of members of the class Methanonatronarchaeia is still limited. It is known that M. thermophilum performs hydrogen or formate-dependent methyl-reducing methanogenesis. Here, we show that the organism was able to grow on all tested C1-methylated substrates (methanol, trimethylamine, dimethylamine, monomethylamine) in combination with formate or molecular hydrogen. A temporary accumulation of intermediates (dimethylamine or/and monomethylamine) in the medium occurred during the consumption of trimethylamine or dimethylamine. The energy conservation of M. thermophilum was dependent on a respiratory chain consisting of a hydrogenase (VhoGAC), a formate dehydrogenase (FdhGHI), and a heterodisulfide reductase (HdrDE) that were well adapted to the harsh physicochemical conditions in the natural habitat. The experiments revealed the presence of two variants of energy-conserving oxidoreductase systems in the membrane. These included the H2: heterodisulfide oxidoreductase system, which has already been described in Methanosarcina species, as well as the novel formate: heterodisulfide oxidoreductase system. The latter electron transport chain, which was experimentally proven for the first time, distinguishes the organism from all other known methanogenic archaea and represents a unique feature of the class Methanonatronarchaeia. Experiments with 2-hydroxyphenazine and the inhibitor diphenyleneiodonium chloride indicated that a methanophenazine-like cofactor might function as an electron carrier between the hydrogenase/ formate dehydrogenase and the heterodisulfide reductase.","climate change; methane; methanogenesis; phenazine; respiratory chain","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","BT/Environmental Biotechnology","","",""
"uuid:4a8f0f39-2bd3-4b4a-8efc-67c607b6155c","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:4a8f0f39-2bd3-4b4a-8efc-67c607b6155c","Climate Change Related Health Hazards and the Academic Responsibility of Evangelical Bioethicists","Richie, C.S. (TU Delft Ethics & Philosophy of Technology)","","2020","This article will explore the academic responsibility of Evangelical bioethicists to address climate change related health hazards. First, it will provide evidence-based data on climate change related health hazards, which disproportionately affect the poor and vulnerable worldwide, and as such are a form of environmental racism. Second, it will look at responses to climate change. So-called “climate change deniers” in the United States—the majority of which are Evangelical—will be addressed and the argument will be put forth that, regardless of the causes of climate change, climate change bioethics is part of the Christian tradition of healing and justice. Focusing on climate health hazards builds consensus across partisan and denominational lines by addressing the result—not the cause—of climate change. Third, the article will confront the academic responsibility of Evangelical bioethicists in addressing climate change related health hazards using the paradigm of H. Richard Niebuhr’s homo dialectus. It will, fourth, offer public theology and biblical scholarship as ways to engage this matter of moral significance. The conclusion will urge Evangelical bioethicists to develop a framework, such as Evangelical environmental bioethics, to effectively address climate change health hazards.","climate change; human health; Evangelical theology; H. Richard Niebuhr; responsibility; sustainability; practical theology; theological bioethics","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Ethics & Philosophy of Technology","","",""
"uuid:0ebd6960-077d-4f30-a83b-28d2200405b1","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:0ebd6960-077d-4f30-a83b-28d2200405b1","Subsurface Equilibrium: Transformation towards synergy in construction of urban systems","Hooimeijer, F.L. (TU Delft Environmental Technology and Design); Rizzetto, F. (TU Delft Urban Design); Acheilas, I.; ter Heijden, W.J.; de Vette, Kees; von der Tann, Loretta; Durand Lopez, Leyden","","2020","By jointly approaching the challenges we face – such as ongoing urbanization, climate change, energy transition and the introduction of new mobility such as automated and electric vehicles – urban areas can be made more resilient. The
subsurface of the city can play a central role in this, for instance by using space made available by a different use of infrastructure for the ecological and functional improvement of the city. In order to combine ecosystem services, climate and urban systems in a single design that accounts for the dynamics of the subsurface, it must be seen as an integral element of spatial planning and design. Based on this idea this exploratory research was done into the effect of ‘soil first’ on three urban typologies. What is the design potential of these typologies, assuming a circular construction of the public space and a healthy soil? The result is a six step approach in which the city can become more healthy is regard to global challenges and respecting the soil as main carrier.","subsurface; soil; health; urban; climate change; remediation","en","report","Delft University of Technology","","","","","","","","","","Environmental Technology and Design","","",""
"uuid:1a84adc7-86d4-4ee9-905c-006bd4aabe71","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:1a84adc7-86d4-4ee9-905c-006bd4aabe71","Long-eccentricity regulated climate control on fluvial incision and aggradation in the Palaeocene of north-eastern Montana (USA)","Noorbergen, Lars J. (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Turtu, Antonio (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Kuiper, Klaudia F. (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Kasse, Cornelis (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); van Ginneken, Sverre (Universiteit Utrecht); Dekkers, Mark J. (Universiteit Utrecht); Krijgsman, Wout (Universiteit Utrecht); Abels, H.A. (TU Delft Applied Geology); Hilgen, Frederik J. (Universiteit Utrecht)","","2020","Aggradation and fluvial incision controlled by downstream base-level changes at timescales of 10 to 500 kyr is incorporated in classic sequence stratigraphic models. However, upstream climate control on sediment supply and discharge variability causes fluvial incision and aggradation as well. Orbital forcing often regulates climate change at 10 to 500 kyr timescales while tectonic processes such as flexural (un)loading exert a dominant control at timescales longer than 500 kyr. It remains challenging to attribute fluvial incision and aggradation to upstream or downstream processes or disentangle allogenic from autogenic forcing, because time control is mostly limited in fluvial successions. The Palaeocene outcrops of the fluvial Lebo Shale Member in north-eastern Montana (Williston Basin, USA) constitute an exception. This study uses a distinctive tephra layer and two geomagnetic polarity reversals to create a 15 km long chronostratigraphic framework based on the correlation of twelve sections. Three aggradation–incision sequences are identified with durations of approximately 400 kyr, suggesting a relation with long-eccentricity. This age control further reveals that incision occurred during the approach of – or during – a 405 kyr long-eccentricity minimum. A long-term relaxation of the hydrological cycle related to such an orbital phasing potentially exerts an upstream climate control on river incision. Upstream, an expanding vegetation cover is expected because of an increasingly constant moisture supply to source areas. Entrapping by vegetation led to a significantly reduced sediment supply relative to discharge, especially at times of low evapotranspiration. Hence, high discharges resulted in incision. This study assesses the long-eccentricity regulated climate control on fluvial aggradation and incision in a new aggradation–incision sequence model.","Aggradation; climate change; fluvial stratigraphy; hiatuses; incision; long-eccentricity cycle; magnetostratigraphic correlation; tephrostratigraphic correlation","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Applied Geology","","",""
"uuid:73235891-1b9b-40c6-ba70-9b7c7a712023","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:73235891-1b9b-40c6-ba70-9b7c7a712023","A High-Resolution Global Dataset of Extreme Sea Levels, Tides, and Storm Surges, Including Future Projections","Muis, Sanne (Deltares; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Apecechea, Maialen Irazoqui (Deltares); Dullaart, Job (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); de Lima Rego, Joao (Deltares); Madsen, Kristine Skovgaard (Danish Meteorological Institute); Su, Jian (Danish Meteorological Institute); Yan, Kun (Deltares); Verlaan, M. (TU Delft Mathematical Physics; Deltares)","","2020","The world’s coastal areas are increasingly at risk of coastal flooding due to sea-level rise (SLR). We present a novel global dataset of extreme sea levels, the Coastal Dataset for the Evaluation of Climate Impact (CoDEC), which can be used to accurately map the impact of climate change on coastal regions around the world. The third generation Global Tide and Surge Model (GTSM), with a coastal resolution of 2.5 km (1.25 km in Europe), was used to simulate extreme sea levels for the ERA5 climate reanalysis from 1979 to 2017, as well as for future climate scenarios from 2040 to 2100. The validation against observed sea levels demonstrated a good performance, and the annual maxima had a mean bias (MB) of -0.04 m, which is 50% lower than the MB of the previous GTSR dataset. By the end of the century (2071–2100), it is projected that the 1 in 10-year water levels will have increased 0.34 m on average for RCP4.5, while some locations may experience increases of up to 0.5 m. The change in return levels is largely driven by SLR, although at some locations changes in storms surges and interaction with tides amplify the impact of SLR with changes up to 0.2 m. By presenting an application of the CoDEC dataset to the city of Copenhagen, we demonstrate how climate impact indicators derived from simulation can contribute to an understanding of climate impact on a local scale. Moreover, the CoDEC output locations are designed to be used as boundary conditions for regional models, and we envisage that they will be used for dynamic downscaling.","climate change; coastal flooding; extreme sea levels; global model; sea-level rise","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Mathematical Physics","","",""
"uuid:6594a476-7b65-416b-abfe-27ffda4e2354","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:6594a476-7b65-416b-abfe-27ffda4e2354","On the Imbalance and Response Time of Glaciers in the European Alps","Zekollari, H. (TU Delft Mathematical Geodesy and Positioning; ETH Zürich; Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research; Vrije Universiteit Brussel); Huss, Matthias (ETH Zürich; University of Fribourg; Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research); Farinotti, Daniel (ETH Zürich; Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research)","","2020","Glaciers in the European Alps rapidly lose mass to adapt to changes in climate conditions. Here, we investigate the relationship and lag between climate forcing and geometric glacier response with a regional glacier evolution model accounting for ice dynamics. The volume loss occurring as a result of the glacier-climate imbalance increased over the early 21st century, from about 35% in 2001 to 44% in 2010. This committed loss reduced to ~40% by 2018, indicating that temperature increase was outweighing glacier retreat in the early 2000s but that the fast retreat effectively somewhat diminished glacier imbalances. We analyze the lag in glacier response for each individual glacier and find mean response times of 50 ± 28 years. Our findings indicate that the response time is primarily controlled by glacier slope and secondarily by elevation range and mass balance gradient, rather than by glacier size.","alps; climate change; dynamics; glacier; response time","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Mathematical Geodesy and Positioning","","",""
"uuid:d823c67e-e6b8-45b4-9ecc-7608c1d54457","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d823c67e-e6b8-45b4-9ecc-7608c1d54457","Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions: The Road to “Hothouse Earth” is Paved with Good Intentions","Schröder, E. (TU Delft Economics of Technology and Innovation); Storm, S.T.H. (TU Delft Economics of Technology and Innovation)","","2020","De-carbonization to restrict future global warming to 1.5 °C is technically feasible but may impose a “limit” or “planetary boundary” to economic growth, depending on whether or not human society can decouple growth from emissions. In this paper, we assess the viability of decoupling. First, we develop a prognosis of climate-constrained global growth for 2014–2050 using the transparent Kaya identity. Second, we use the Carbon-Kuznets-Curve framework to assess the effect of economic growth on emissions using measures of territorial and consumption-based emissions. We run fixed-effects regressions using OECD data for 58 countries during 2007–2015 and source alternative emissions data starting in 1992 from two other databases. While there is weak evidence suggesting a decoupling of emissions and growth at high-income levels, the main estimation sample indicates that emissions are monotonically increasing with per-capita GDP. We draw out the implications for climate policy and binding emission reduction obligations.","Carbon-Kuznets-Curve; climate change; consumption-based CO emissions; decoupling; economic growth; F64; Paris agreement; Q54; Q55; Q56","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Economics of Technology and Innovation","","",""
"uuid:cce282c8-76f5-4176-926f-617b85b65a68","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:cce282c8-76f5-4176-926f-617b85b65a68","Marginal climate and air quality costs of aviation emissions","Grobler, Carla (Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Wolfe, Philip J. (Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Dasadhikari, Kingshuk (Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Dedoussi, I.C. (TU Delft Aircraft Noise and Climate Effects; Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Allroggen, Florian (Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Speth, Raymond L. (Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Eastham, Sebastian D. (Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Agarwal, Akshat (Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Staples, Mark D. (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)","","2019","Aviation emissions have been found to cause5%of global anthropogenic radiative forcing and ∼16 000 premature deaths annually due to impaired air quality. When aiming to reduce these impacts, decision makers often face trade-offs between different emission species or impacts in different times and locations. To inform rational decision-making, this study computes aviation’s marginal climate and air quality impacts per tonne of species emitted and accounts for the altitude, location, and chemical composition of emissions. Climate impacts are calculated using a reduced-order climate model, and air quality-related health impacts are quantified using marginal atmospheric sensitivities to emissions from the adjoint of the global chemistry-transport model GEOS-Chem in combination with concentration response functions and the value of statistical life. The results indicate that 90% of the global impacts per unit of fuel burn are attributable to cruise emissions, and that 64% of all damages are the result of air quality impacts. Furthermore, nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon dioxide (CO2), and contrails are collectively responsible for 97% of the total impact. Applying our result metrics to an example, we find that a 20%NOx stringency scenario for new aircraft would reduce the net atmospheric impacts by 700mUSD during the first year of operation, even if theNOx emission reductions cause a small increase inCO2 emissions of 2%. In such a way, the damage metrics can be used to rapidly evaluate the atmospheric impacts of market growth as well as emissions trade-offs of aviation-related policies or technology improvements.","air quality; aviation; climate change","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Aircraft Noise and Climate Effects","","",""
"uuid:d85f7d7c-71e5-4b99-b7fc-750255356961","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d85f7d7c-71e5-4b99-b7fc-750255356961","Conference Report: 2019 International Conference Water as Heritage","Mager, Tino (TU Delft History, Form & Aesthetics)","","2019","The 2019 International Conference ""Water as Heritage"" took place 27-31 May 2019 in Chiayi, Taiwan. Organized by the Taiwan International Institute for Water Education, the International Council on Monuments and Sites (ICOMOS) Netherlands and the Leiden-Delft-Erasmus Centre for Global Heritage and Development, it brought together key water-focused organizations and heritage groups with a concern for water-related heritage in order to develop networks and build working relationships across the diversity of sectors and disciplinary fields. With participants from 25 countries and six continents, the conference explored the mutual benefits arising from such collaborative efforts. A key issue of the conference was the consideration of water-related heritage as an essential element in addressing current and future challenges of water management.","water heritage; sustainability; heritage for the future; climate change; waterscapes; waterways; hydropower","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","History, Form & Aesthetics","","",""
"uuid:d3562187-c2e5-4e34-8252-e009d92a77e4","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d3562187-c2e5-4e34-8252-e009d92a77e4","Supporting Interventions to Reduce Household Greenhouse Gas Emissions: A Transdisciplinary Role-Playing Game Development","Agusdinata, Datu Buyung (Arizona State University); Lukosch, H.K. (TU Delft Policy Analysis)","","2019","Background. Designing interventions for conserving the food, energy, and water nexus at household level poses a significant challenge due to the complex interplay between human behaviors, technologies, and policies. Games show potential to increase awareness for environmental issues and influence behaviors towards more sustainable practices. Aim. By bringing together scientists and practitioners in the game design process, a transdisciplinary (TD) approach is seen as a promising way to integrate available knowledge and establish ownership of the problem and solution options. Few gaming literature, however, looked at combining the two approaches in addressing resource conservation issues. Method. We present a systematic account of the TD approach process of developing a role-playing game (RPG) - called HomeRUN (Role-play for Understanding Nexus). Results. We documented our experiences in terms of challenges as well as the benefits of the TD approach. Interacting disciplines in this process include psychology, economics, engineering, climate, sociology, and computer science. Inputs from each discipline combined with feedback from social actors that include city government, utility companies, and community members facilitated continuous improvements of the RPG design.","climate change; development; environment; learning; role-playing game","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Policy Analysis","","",""
"uuid:8c8654e8-3122-4ca2-8024-5cd334857dd1","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:8c8654e8-3122-4ca2-8024-5cd334857dd1","Sea-level change in the Dutch Wadden Sea","Vermeersen, L.L.A. (TU Delft Physical and Space Geodesy; Universiteit Utrecht); Baart, F. (Deltares); Cohen, Kim M. (Deltares; Universiteit Utrecht); Frederikse, T. (TU Delft Physical and Space Geodesy); Kiden, Patrick (TNO); Kleinherenbrink, M. (TU Delft Physical and Space Geodesy); Riva, R.E.M. (TU Delft Physical and Space Geodesy); Slobbe, D.C. (TU Delft Physical and Space Geodesy); van der Wegen, M. (Deltares; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education)","","2018","Rising sea levels due to climate change can have severe consequences for coastal populations and ecosystems all around the world. Understanding and projecting sea-level rise is especially important for low-lying countries such as the Netherlands. It is of specific interest for vulnerable ecological and morphodynamic regions, such as the Wadden Sea UNESCO World Heritage region. Here we provide an overview of sea-level projections for the 21st century for the Wadden Sea region and a condensed review of the scientific data, understanding and uncertainties underpinning the projections. The sea-level projections are formulated in the framework of the geological history of the Wadden Sea region and are based on the regional sea-level projections published in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). These IPCC AR5 projections are compared against updates derived from more recent literature and evaluated for the Wadden Sea region. The projections are further put into perspective by including interannual variability based on long-Term tide-gauge records from observing stations at Den Helder and Delfzijl. We consider three climate scenarios, following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), as defined in IPCC AR5: The RCP2.6 scenario assumes that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions decline after 2020; the RCP4.5 scenario assumes that GHG emissions peak at 2040 and decline thereafter; and the RCP8.5 scenario represents a continued rise of GHG emissions throughout the 21st century. For RCP8.5, we also evaluate several scenarios from recent literature where the mass loss in Antarctica accelerates at rates exceeding those presented in IPCC AR5. For the Dutch Wadden Sea, the IPCC AR5-based projected sea-level rise is 0.07±0.06m for the RCP4.5 scenario for the period 2018-30 (uncertainties representing 5-95%), with the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios projecting 0.01m less and more, respectively. The projected rates of sea-level change in 2030 range between 2.6mma-1 for the 5th percentile of the RCP2.6 scenario to 9.1mma-1 for the 95th percentile of the RCP8.5 scenario. For the period 2018-50, the differences between the scenarios increase, with projected changes of 0.16±0.12m for RCP2.6, 0.19±0.11m for RCP4.5 and 0.23±0.12m for RCP8.5. The accompanying rates of change range between 2.3 and 12.4mma-1 in 2050. The differences between the scenarios amplify for the 2018-2100 period, with projected total changes of 0.41±0.25m for RCP2.6, 0.52±0.27m for RCP4.5 and 0.76±0.36m for RCP8.5. The projections for the RCP8.5 scenario are larger than the high-end projections presented in the 2008 Delta Commission Report (0.74m for 1990-2100) when the differences in time period are considered. The sea-level change rates range from 2.2 to 18.3mma-1 for the year 2100. We also assess the effect of accelerated ice mass loss on the sea-level projections under the RCP8.5 scenario, as recent literature suggests that there may be a larger contribution from Antarctica than presented in IPCC AR5 (potentially exceeding 1m in 2100). Changes in episodic extreme events, such as storm surges, and periodic (tidal) contributions on (sub-)daily timescales, have not been included in these sea-level projections. However, the potential impacts of these processes on sea-level change rates have been assessed in the report.","climate change; regional sea-level scenarios; sea-level rise; Wadden Sea","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Physical and Space Geodesy","","",""
"uuid:e196a135-f562-4c81-8f99-af98c71cd52a","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:e196a135-f562-4c81-8f99-af98c71cd52a","Framework for assessing the performance of flood adaptation innovations using a risk-based approach","Lendering, K.T. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk; Horvat & Partners); Sebastian, Antonia (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk; Rice University); Jonkman, Sebastiaan N. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk); Kok, M. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk)","","2018","The application of risk-based approaches for the design of flood infrastructure has become increasingly common in flood management. This approach, based on risk reduction and reliability, is used to assess the performance of conventional interventions (e.g., flood defences and dams) and to support decisions regarding their implementation. However, for more innovative solutions, performance has often not been quantified by means of these metrics and, therefore, end-users are hesitant to implement them in existing flood risk reduction systems. To overcome the gap between innovators and end-users, we present a framework based on four performance indicators, to ensure the required insights in risk and reliability are provided. The four indicators: effectiveness, durability, reliability and costs, allow end-users to evaluate, select, and implement flood adaptation innovations, and provide innovators with insight into the performance of the technology and the criteria and information necessary for successful market uptake of their innovation. The practical application of the framework is demonstrated for a (hypothetical) case of a hospital complex built in an area that has subsided below the surrounding area, which is subject to tropical rain showers. The following innovations are considered: an early flood warning system, a green roof, and a temporary flood barrier.","climate change; flood mitigation; integrated flood risk management; risk analysis","en","journal article","","","","","","Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.","","2019-01-23","","","Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk","","",""
"uuid:f41129a0-3b6f-42a0-83b8-f9fdd8d029a4","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:f41129a0-3b6f-42a0-83b8-f9fdd8d029a4","Assessing Flood Risk Under Sea Level Rise and Extreme Sea Levels Scenarios: Application to the Ebro Delta (Spain)","Sayol España, J.M. (TU Delft Environmental Fluid Mechanics; University of the Balearic Islands); Marcos, M. (University of the Balearic Islands)","","2018","This study presents a novel methodology to estimate the impact of local sea level rise and extreme surges and waves in coastal areas under climate change scenarios. The methodology is applied to the Ebro Delta, a valuable and vulnerable low-lying wetland located in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. Projections of local sea level accounting for all contributions to mean sea level changes, including thermal expansion, dynamic changes, fresh water addition and glacial isostatic adjustment, have been obtained from regionalized sea level projections during the 21st century. Particular attention has been paid to the uncertainties, which have been derived from the spread of the multi-model ensemble combined with seasonal/inter-annual sea level variability from local tide gauge observations. Besides vertical land movements have also been integrated to estimate local relative sea level rise. On the other hand, regional projections over the Mediterranean basin of storm surges and wind-waves have been used to evaluate changes in extreme events. The compound effects of surges and extreme waves have been quantified using their joint probability distributions. Finally, offshore sea level projections from extreme events superimposed to mean sea level have been propagated onto a high resolution digital elevation model of the study region in order to construct flood hazards maps for mid and end of the 21st century and under two different climate change scenarios. The effect of each contribution has been evaluated in terms of percentage of the area exposed to coastal hazards, which will help to design more efficient protection and adaptation measures.","climate change; Ebro Delta; flood hazard; sea level rise; storm surge; wind wave","en","journal article","","","","","","","","2018-12-31","","","Environmental Fluid Mechanics","","",""
"uuid:e3c7ece4-3153-49e2-bafa-8f533e6c9992","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:e3c7ece4-3153-49e2-bafa-8f533e6c9992","Global mortality from storm surges is decreasing","Bouwer, LM (Deltares); Jonkman, Sebastiaan N. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk)","","2018","Changes in society's vulnerability to natural hazards are important to understand, as they determine current and future risks, and the need to improve protection. Very large impacts including high numbers of fatalities occur due to single storm surge flood events. Here, we report on impacts of global coastal storm surge events since the year 1900, based on a compilation of events and data on loss of life. We find that over the past, more than eight thousand people are killed and 1.5 million people are affected annually by storm surges. The occurrence of very substantial loss of life (>10 000 persons) from single events has however decreased over time. Moreover, there is a consistent decrease in event mortality, measured by the fraction of exposed people that are killed, for all global regions, except South East Asia. Average mortality for storm surges is slightly higher than for river floods, but lower than for flash floods. We also find that for the same coastal surge water level, mortality has decreased over time. This indicates that risk reduction efforts have been successful, but need to be continued with projected climate change, increased rates of sea-level rise and urbanisation in coastal zones.","loss of life; climate change; mortality; vulnerability; coast; storm surge","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk","","",""
"uuid:4f4af3e7-d6e2-4d86-a757-e3e909be7146","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:4f4af3e7-d6e2-4d86-a757-e3e909be7146","Experiments on Flowscapes","Bobbink, I. (TU Delft Landscape Architecture)","","2018","For the last five years, graduates within the master track of Landscape Architecture at TU Delft’s Faculty of Architecture and the Built Environment have been working on the theme of “Flowscapes”. In the graduation guide the theme is explained as follows: “Flowscapes, explores infrastructure as a type of landscape and landscape as a type of infrastructure. The hybridization of the two concepts seeks to redefine infrastructure beyond its strictly utilitarian definition, while allowing landscape design to gain operative force in territorial transformation processes. Through focusing on landscape architectonic design of transportation, green and water infrastructures, the studio aims to develop innovative spatial armatures that guide urban and rural development and represent their civic and cultural significance. With movement and flows at the core, landscape infrastructures facilitate aesthetic, functional, social and ecological relationships between natural and human systems. The studio seeks a better understanding of the dynamic between landscape processes and typo-morphological aspects; here interpreted as flowscapes. Flowscapes projects put Landscape Architecture Education Delft at the interface of Urbanism, Architecture, Civil Engineering, Environmental and Spatial Planning.” In this paper the theme will be discussed by comparing two graduation projects situated in two different deltas: “The Haringvlietdam, a beautiful coastal landscape, part of the Rhine-Meuse delta” in the Netherlands and “The Living Estuary, a study to develop landscape spatial adaptive strategies by integrating water, ecosystem and anthropomorphic-dynamics in the estuary of the Volta Delta” in Ghana. The focus of the paper is on the method developed and applied in the graduation work. What do these projects have in common? In what way are they different and what can we learn from them in terms of understanding landscape architecture as an integral design discipline, in relation to the theme of flowscapes? A discipline that relates space to place and uses design as an operative force to steer adaptive and sustainable territorial transformation processes.","Flowscapes; dynamics; integrating natural and human systems; biodiversity; climate change; flooding; a living delta; future resilience","en","conference paper","IFLA","","","","","","","","","","Landscape Architecture","","",""
"uuid:dfe6b957-da18-43b5-9cdc-59a580d38a0b","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:dfe6b957-da18-43b5-9cdc-59a580d38a0b","Coping with the impacts of Urban Heat Islands A literature based study on understanding urban heat vulnerability and the need for resilience in cities in a global climate change context","Leal Filho, W. (Manchester Metropolitan University); Echevarria Icaza, L. (TU Delft OLD Urban Compositions); Neht, A. (Rheinisch-Westfälische Technische Hogeschool); Klavins, M. (University of Latvia); Morgan, E.A. (Griffith University)","","2018","The urban heat island (UHI) is a phenomenon whereby temperature levels in urban areas are higher than in surrounding rural settings. Urban heat islands are a matter of increasing concern, since they can affect communities by exacerbating air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions (due to the greater use of air conditioning) and the occurrence of heat-related illness, and may lead to higher levels of mortality. This paper provides a description of the phenomena of (UHI) and an analysis of how cities are vulnerable to it. It highlights the need for resilience and the variety of means by which the UHI can be tackled. It describes a set of trends in two regions in Germany and Australia, which illustrate the scope of the problem in the northern and southern hemispheres, and the scale of vulnerability. Then, existing UHI vulnerability assessments are analysed to highlight common features and differences. Based on this, we propose a classification of adaptability parameters to support vulnerability assessments. The paper also discusses current mitigation approaches mentioned in the literature, and how these address some vulnerabilities. It concludes that both a better understanding of the UHI phenomena and consideration of the particular context of each city is needed to make urban areas more resilient to UHI.","Urban Heat Island; vulnerability; cities; climate change; mitigatopn; adaption","en","journal article","","","","","","Accepted Author Manuscript","","2019-10-10","","","OLD Urban Compositions","","",""
"uuid:0b3f181d-2830-4a40-89ad-ac75ebf4684a","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:0b3f181d-2830-4a40-89ad-ac75ebf4684a","Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017","Van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)); Van Der Wiel, Karin (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)); Sebastian, Antonia (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk; Rice University); Singh, Roop (Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre); Arrighi, Julie (Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre); Otto, Friederike (University of Oxford); Haustein, Karsten (University of Oxford); Li, Sihan (University of Oxford); Vecchi, Gabriel (Princeton University); Cullen, Heidi (Climate Central)","","2017","During August 25-30, 2017, Hurricane Harvey stalled over Texas and caused extreme precipitation, particularly over Houston and the surrounding area on August 26-28. This resulted in extensive flooding with over 80 fatalities and large economic costs. It was an extremely rare event: the return period of the highest observed three-day precipitation amount, 1043.4 mm 3dy-1 at Baytown, is more than 9000 years (97.5% one-sided confidence interval) and return periods exceeded 1000 yr (750 mm 3dy-1) over a large area in the current climate. Observations since 1880 over the region show a clear positive trend in the intensity of extreme precipitation of between 12% and 22%, roughly two times the increase of the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere expected for 1 °C warming according to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This would indicate that the moisture flux was increased by both the moisture content and stronger winds or updrafts driven by the heat of condensation of the moisture. We also analysed extreme rainfall in the Houston area in three ensembles of 25 km resolution models. The first also shows 2 × CC scaling, the second 1 × CC scaling and the third did not have a realistic representation of extreme rainfall on the Gulf Coast. Extrapolating these results to the 2017 event, we conclude that global warming made the precipitation about 15% (8%-19%) more intense, or equivalently made such an event three (1.5-5) times more likely. This analysis makes clear that extreme rainfall events along the Gulf Coast are on the rise. And while fortifying Houston to fully withstand the impact of an event as extreme as Hurricane Harvey may not be economically feasible, it is critical that information regarding the increasing risk of extreme rainfall events in general should be part of the discussion about future improvements to Houston's flood protection system.","attribution; climate change; extreme precipitation; tropical cyclone","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk","","",""
"uuid:c5a0ebb8-d2ce-4fff-ba44-5274940170a2","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:c5a0ebb8-d2ce-4fff-ba44-5274940170a2","A Bayesian-Based System to Assess Wave-Driven Flooding Hazards on Coral Reef-Lined Coasts","Pearson, S.G. (TU Delft Coastal Engineering; Deltares); Storlazzi, C.D. (North Central Climate Science Centre); van Dongeren, A. R. (Deltares); Tissier, M.F.S. (TU Delft Environmental Fluid Mechanics); Reniers, A.J.H.M. (TU Delft Environmental Fluid Mechanics)","","2017","Many low-elevation, coral reef-lined, tropical coasts are vulnerable to the effects of climate change, sea level rise, and wave-induced flooding. The considerable morphological diversity of these coasts and the variability of the hydrodynamic forcing that they are exposed to make predicting wave-induced flooding a challenge. A process-based wave-resolving hydrodynamic model (XBeach Non-Hydrostatic, “XBNH”) was used to create a large synthetic database for use in a “Bayesian Estimator for Wave Attack in Reef Environments” (BEWARE), relating incident hydrodynamics and coral reef geomorphology to coastal flooding hazards on reef-lined coasts. Building on previous work, BEWARE improves system understanding of reef hydrodynamics by examining the intrinsic reef and extrinsic forcing factors controlling runup and flooding on reef-lined coasts. The Bayesian estimator has high predictive skill for the XBNH model outputs that are flooding indicators, and was validated for a number of available field cases. It was found that, in order to accurately predict flooding hazards, water depth over the reef flat, incident wave conditions, and reef flat width are the most essential factors, whereas other factors such as beach slope and bed friction due to the presence or absence of corals are less important. BEWARE is a potentially powerful tool for use in early warning systems or risk assessment studies, and can be used to make projections about how wave-induced flooding on coral reef-lined coasts may change due to climate change.","Bayesian network; climate change; coral reef; flooding; hydrodynamics; reef morphology; wave runup","en","journal article","","","","","","","","2018-08-01","","","Coastal Engineering","","",""
"uuid:12fa5fc7-e2c7-4061-af5a-111142c74203","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:12fa5fc7-e2c7-4061-af5a-111142c74203","A Global Assessment of Runoff Sensitivity to Changes in Precipitation, Potential Evaporation, and Other Factors","Berghuijs, W.R. (TU Delft Water Resources; University of Bristol; ETH Zürich); Larsen, Joshua R. (University of Queensland; University of Lausanne); van Emmerik, T.H.M. (TU Delft Water Resources); Woods, Ross A. (University of Bristol)","","2017","Precipitation (P) and potential evaporation (Ep) are commonly studied drivers of changing freshwater availability, as aridity (Ep/P) explains ∼90% of the spatial differences in mean runoff across the globe. However, it is unclear if changes in aridity over time are also the most important cause for temporal changes in mean runoff and how this degree of importance varies regionally. We show that previous global assessments that address these questions do not properly account for changes due to precipitation, and thereby strongly underestimate the effects of precipitation on runoff. To resolve this shortcoming, we provide an improved Budyko-based global assessment of the relative and absolute sensitivity of precipitation, potential evaporation, and other factors to changes in mean-annual runoff. The absolute elasticity of runoff to potential evaporation changes is always lower than the elasticity to precipitation changes. The global pattern indicates that for 83% of the land grid cells runoff is most sensitive to precipitation changes, while other factors dominate for the remaining 17%. This dominant role of precipitation contradicts previous global assessments, which considered the impacts of aridity changes as a ratio. We highlight that dryland regions generally display high absolute sensitivities of runoff to changes in precipitation, however within dryland regions the relative sensitivity of runoff to changes in other factors (e.g., changing climatic variability, CO2-vegetation feedbacks, and anthropogenic modifications to the landscape) is often far higher. Nonetheless, at the global scale, surface water resources are most sensitive to temporal changes in precipitation.","aridity; Budyko; climate change; precipitation; sensitivity; water resources","en","journal article","","","","","","","","2018-05-01","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:91f2edb0-1309-4b51-87ca-b8054e62cd63","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:91f2edb0-1309-4b51-87ca-b8054e62cd63","The sea-level budget along the Northwest Atlantic coast: GIA, mass changes, and large-scale ocean dynamics","Frederikse, T. (TU Delft Physical and Space Geodesy); Simon, K.M. (TU Delft Physical and Space Geodesy); Katsman, C.A. (TU Delft Environmental Fluid Mechanics); Riva, R.E.M. (TU Delft Physical and Space Geodesy)","","2017","Sea-level rise and decadal variability along the northwestern coast of the North Atlantic Ocean are studied in a self-consistent framework that takes into account the effects of solid-earth deformation and geoid changes due to large-scale mass redistribution processes. Observations of sea and land level changes from tide gauges and GPS are compared to the cumulative effect of GIA, present-day mass redistribution, and ocean dynamics over a 50 year period (1965–2014). GIA explains the majority of the observed sea-level and land motion trends, as well as almost all interstation variability. Present-day mass redistribution resulting from ice melt and land hydrology causes both land uplift and sea-level rise in the region. We find a strong correlation between decadal steric variability in the Subpolar Gyre and coastal sea level, which is likely caused by variability in the Labrador Sea that is propagated southward. The steric signal explains the majority of the observed decadal sea-level variability and shows an upward trend and a significant acceleration, which are also found along the coast. The sum of all contributors explains the observed trends in both sea-level rise and vertical land motion in the region, as well as the decadal variability. The sum of contributors also explains the observed acceleration within confidence intervals. The sea-level acceleration coincides with an accelerating density decrease at high latitudes.","climate change; North Atlantic; sea-level budget; Subpolar Gyre; US East Coast","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Physical and Space Geodesy","","",""
"uuid:270b3cd3-da79-4a0f-b0ec-e60098cee1c7","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:270b3cd3-da79-4a0f-b0ec-e60098cee1c7","Measuring Tree Properties and Responses Using Low-Cost Accelerometers","van Emmerik, T.H.M. (TU Delft Water Resources); Steele-Dunne, S.C. (TU Delft Water Resources); Hut, R.W. (TU Delft Water Resources); Gentine, Pierre; Guerin, Marceau; Oliveira, Rafael; Wagner, Jim; Selker, John; van de Giesen, N.C. (TU Delft Water Resources)","","2017","Trees play a crucial role in the water, carbon and nitrogen cycle on local, regional and global scales. Understanding the exchange of momentum, heat, water, and CO 2 between trees and the atmosphere is important to assess the impact of drought, deforestation and climate change. Unfortunately, ground measurements of tree properties such as mass and canopy interception of precipitation are often expensive or difficult due to challenging environments. This paper aims to demonstrate the concept of using robust and affordable accelerometers to measure tree properties and responses. Tree sway is dependent on mass, canopy structure, drag coefficient, and wind forcing. By measuring tree acceleration, we can relate the tree motion to external forcing (e.g., wind, precipitation and related canopy interception) and tree physical properties (e.g., mass, elasticity). Using five months of acceleration data of 19 trees in the Brazilian Amazon, we show that the frequency spectrum of tree sway is related to mass, canopy interception of precipitation, and canopy–atmosphere turbulent exchange.","hydrology; tree physiology; tree sway; water stress; wind; canopy; Amazon; drag coefficient; climate change; turbulence; interceprtion","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:0633ddf4-1b3f-4e64-871c-a831484af159","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:0633ddf4-1b3f-4e64-871c-a831484af159","The economy-wide impacts of climate change and irrigation development in the Nile Basin: A computable general equilibrium approach","Kahsay, Tewodros Negash (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education); Kuik, Onno (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Brouwer, Roy (University of Waterloo); van der Zaag, P. (TU Delft Water Resources; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education)","","2017","A multi-country, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is employed to evaluate the economy-wide impacts of climate change under the IPCC's A2 and B1 scenarios and existing irrigation development plans in the Nile basin. The study reveals that climate change adversely affects mainly downstream Egypt and to a lesser extent Sudan, while it results in a limited impact in the upstream countries Ethiopia and the Equatorial Lakes region, where irrigated agriculture is still limited. The economic consequences for Egypt are especially substantial if the river basin countries pursue a unilateral irrigation development strategy. In order to prevent water use conflicts and ease water scarcity conditions, a cooperative water development strategy is needed as well as economic diversification in favor of less water-intensive sectors, combined with investments in water-saving infrastructure and improved irrigation efficiency.","climate change; Computable general equilibrium; irrigation development; Nile River Basin","en","journal article","","","","","","","","2018-03-01","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:7485b8ad-848a-4d40-9153-928205045a22","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:7485b8ad-848a-4d40-9153-928205045a22","Mitigating the Climate Impact from Aviation: Achievements and Results of the DLR WeCare Project","Grewe, V. (TU Delft Aircraft Noise and Climate Effects; Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Dahlmann, K. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Flink, J. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Frömming, C. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Ghosh, R. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Gierens, K. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Heller, R (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Hendricks, J. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Jockel, P. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Kaufmann, S. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Kölker, K. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Linke, F. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Luchkova, T. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Lührs, B. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); van Manen, Jesper (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Matthes, S (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Minikin, A. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Niklaß, Malte (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Plohr, M. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Righi, M. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Rosanka, S. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Schmitt, A (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Schumann, U (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Terekhov, I. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Unterstrasser, S. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Vázquez-Navarro, M. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Voigt, C. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Wicke, K. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Yamashita, H. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Zahn, A. (Karlsruhe Institut für Technologie); Ziereis, H. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR))","","2017","The WeCare project (Utilizing Weather information for Climate efficient and eco efficient future aviation), an internal project of the German Aerospace Center (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, DLR), aimed at finding solutions for reducing the climate impact of aviation based on an improved understanding of the atmospheric impact from aviation by making use of measurements and modeling approaches. WeCare made some important contributions to advance the scientific understanding in the area of atmospheric and air transportation research. We characterize contrail properties, show that the aircraft type significantly influences these properties, and how contrail-cirrus interacts with natural cirrus. Aviation NOx emissions lead to ozone formation and we show that the strength of the ozone enhancement varies, depending on where within a weather pattern NOx is emitted. These results, in combination with results on the effects of aerosol emissions on low cloud properties, give a revised view on the total radiative forcing of aviation. The assessment of a fleet of strut-braced wing aircraft with an open rotor is investigated and reveals the potential to significantly reduce the climate impact. Intermediate stop operations have the potential to significantly reduce fuel consumption. However, we find that, if only optimized for fuel use, they will have an increased climate impact, since non-CO2 effects compensate the reduced warming from CO2 savings. Avoiding climate sensitive regions has a large potential in reducing climate impact at relatively low costs. Taking advantage of a full 3D optimization has a much better eco-efficiency than lateral re-routings, only. The implementation of such operational measures requires many more considerations. Non-CO2 aviation effects are not considered in international agreements. We showed that climate-optimal routing could be achieved, if market-based measures were in place, which include these non-CO2 effects. An alternative measure to foster climate-optimal routing is the closing of air spaces, which are very climate-sensitive. Although less effective than an unconstrained optimization with respect to climate, it still has a significant potential to reduce the climate impact of aviation. By combining atmospheric and air transportation research, we assess climate mitigation measures, aiming at providing information to aviation stakeholders and policy-makers to make aviation more climate compatible.","aviation emission; contrails; nitrogen oxides; aerosols; climate change; climate mitigation; strut-braced wing; open rotor; intermediate stop operations; climate sensitive regions; contrail avoidance","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Aircraft Noise and Climate Effects","","",""
"uuid:cee6e939-dd5e-4b3f-9668-b3b15ced9ac3","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:cee6e939-dd5e-4b3f-9668-b3b15ced9ac3","Policy preferences and the diversity of instrument choice for mitigating climate change impacts in the transport sector","Stead, D. (TU Delft Spatial Planning and Strategy)","","2017","Different policy approaches and responses to common environmental challenges, such as climate change, exist between countries, and sometimes even within countries. This situation arises because public policy-makers are not only driven by concerns of theoretical purity but are also influenced by a range of social, political, economic, cultural and administrative matters when selecting techniques or instruments to achieve specific policy goals. This article examines whether the diversity of stated policy instruments to tackle climate change mitigation in the transport sector can be explained according to national policy preferences in a European context. It also investigates whether the mix of national climate change policy instruments for transport exhibits temporal stability, even after national changes in political power. To do so, the article reviews a series of national policy documents that address climate change in the transport sector in four European countries with contrasting administrative traditions – France, Germany, Sweden and the United Kingdom.","policy instruments; climate change; mitigation; transport; Europe","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Spatial Planning and Strategy","","",""
"uuid:79d39257-875f-4c27-9d85-e6724b1cd0f4","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:79d39257-875f-4c27-9d85-e6724b1cd0f4","An Evidence-Based Review of Impacts, Strategies and Tools to Mitigate Urban Heat Islands","Leal Filho, Walter (Hamburg University of Applied Sciences; Manchester Metropolitan University); Echevarria Icaza, L. (TU Delft OLD Urban Compositions); Omeche Emanche, Victoria (Hamburg University of Applied Sciences); Quasem Al-Amin, Abul (Universiti Tenaga Nasional)","","2017","The impacts of climate changes on cities, which are home to over half of the world’s population, are already being felt. In many cases, the intensive speed with which urban centres have been growing means that little attention has been paid to the role played by climatic factors in maintaining quality of life. Among the negative consequences of rapid city growth is the expansion of the problems posed by urban heat islands (UHIs), defined as areas in a city that are much warmer than other sites, especially in comparison with rural areas. This paper analyses the consistency of the UHI-related literature in three stages: first it outlines its characteristics and impacts in a wide variety of cities around the world, which poses pressures to public health in many different countries. Then it introduces strategies which may be employed in order to reduce its effects, and finally it analyses available tools to systematize the initial high level assessment of the phenomenon for multidisciplinary teams involved in the urban planning process. The analysis of literature on the characteristics, impacts, strategies and digital tools to assess on the UHI, reveals the wide variety of parameters, methods, tools and strategies analysed and suggested in the different studies, which does not always allow to compare or standardize the diagnosis or solutions","climate change; urban heat islands; cities-urban; health models; OA-Fund TU Delft","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","OLD Urban Compositions","","",""
"uuid:3974e497-f3d9-4187-a7a0-63832004c8c6","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:3974e497-f3d9-4187-a7a0-63832004c8c6","Quantifying the impact of adverse weather conditions on road network performance","Snelder, M.; Calvert, S.C.","","2016","Adverse weather conditions regularly lead to severe congestion and large travel time delays on road networks all over the world. Different climate scenarios indicate that in the future adverse weather conditions are likely to become more frequent, last longer and will be more extreme. Although climate mitigation measures are being taken, it remains important to investigate how adverse weather events will affect the performance of the road network in the future. The main objective of this paper is to give an overview of how the impact of adverse weather conditions and adaptation measures on road network performance can be quantified. A literature review has been performed to show what is empirically known about the impact of adverse weather conditions on the road network performance. Furthermore, available methods to quantify the impact of adverse weather conditions and adaptation measures on the road network performance for future situations are reviewed. As an example, a case study for the municipality of Rotterdam has been carried out that shows how a combination of models can be used to analyse which links in the road network are most vulnerable for increasingly severe local weather related disturbances. The results of the case study allow local authorities to decide whether or not they need to take adaptation measures.","weather disturbances; extreme weather; climate change; road network; vulnerable locations","en","journal article","Delft University of Technology, Transport and Logistics Group","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"uuid:9d479423-a0de-4715-ab2b-d5c495e47960","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:9d479423-a0de-4715-ab2b-d5c495e47960","Policy Instruments to Improve Energy Performance of Existing Owner Occupied Dwellings","Murphy, L.C. (TU Delft OLD Housing Quality and Process Innovation)","Visscher, H.J. (promotor); Meijer, F.M. (copromotor); Delft University of Technology (degree granting institution)","2016","The aim of this thesis is to add knowledge to the role and impact of policy instruments in meeting energy performance ambition in the existing owner occupied housing stock. The focus was instruments available in the Netherlands in 2011 and 2012. These instruments represented the 'on the ground' efforts to meet climate change targets.","policy instruments; climate change","en","doctoral thesis","","978-94-92516-18-3","","","","","","","","","OLD Housing Quality and Process Innovation","","",""
"uuid:549a1c77-9ab4-4aac-90d7-1a85127655a4","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:549a1c77-9ab4-4aac-90d7-1a85127655a4","Understanding Adaptive Capacity in Real Estate and the Built Environment: Climate Change and Extreme Weather in New York City","Keenan, J.M.","De Jonge, H. (promotor); Janssen-Jansen, L.B. (promotor)","2016","With climate change well underway, cities worldwide are struggling to develop and apply knowledge that will help advance social, environmental and economic adaptation to extreme weather and changing ecologies. Nowhere is this need more pressing than in the design, development and management of the built environment in New York City. In particular, private sector actors are challenged with developing a capacity to adapt to both known and unknown manifestations of climate change in the future. This dissertation aims to contribute to a new conceptualization of the nature of adaptive capacity as it understood and applied across a variety of systematic scales, including the building, the real estate firm and the allied professionals operating within the built environment. This research sets the stage for designing and managing adaptive capacities that allow for the transformation of the real estate sector not just to accommodate climate change but also to address a variety of indirect consequences manifested from natural resource depletion, evolutionary markets and changing consumer demands.","climate change; built environment; real estate; adaptation; adaptive capacity","en","doctoral thesis","","","","","","","","2019-04-19","Architecture and The Built Environment","Management in the Built Environment","","","",""
"uuid:37340b1e-0776-4f72-a262-82f1db8b7db5","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:37340b1e-0776-4f72-a262-82f1db8b7db5","A layered approach to model interconnected infrastructure and its significance for asset management","Bhamidipati, S.K.; Van der Lei, T.T.E.; Herder, P.M.","","2016","Physical infrastructures facilitate much of societal and economic wellbeing of countries, regions and urban areas. In our increasingly urbanizing world, infrastructures in urban areas are densely located and interconnected. The effects of this interconnectedness are being studied increasingly, particularly in light of climate change effects. In this paper, we develop an agent-based simulation model that allows us to study interconnected infrastructure. We present a layered approach that is analogous to GIS overlay approaches, which allows us to integrate representations of different infrastructures. We explore how this approach can help asset managers to gain insights in interconnected infrastructure by estimating their total damage and repair requirements during a flood event. The results show a difference in these estimates, when compared to non-integrated models, highlighting the need for asset managers to consider interconnectedness in infrastructure","asset management; interconnectedness; climate change; agent-based modelling","en","journal article","Delft University of Technology, Transport and Logistics Group","","","","","","","","Technology, Policy and Management","Engineering, Systems and Services","","","",""
"uuid:c8d06acc-7d08-4c42-8279-ba9e58d61d10","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:c8d06acc-7d08-4c42-8279-ba9e58d61d10","Climate change in asset management of infrastructure: A risk-based methodology applied to disruption of traffic on road networks due to the flooding of tunnels","Huibregtse, E.; Morales Napoles, O.; Hellebrandt, L.; Paprotny, D.; De Wit, S.","","2016","This paper presents a risk-based method to quantify climate change effects on road infrastructure, as a support for decision-making on interventions. This can be implemented in climate adaptation plans as an element of asset management. The method is illustrated by a specific case in which traffic on a road network is disrupted by the flooding of a tunnel due to extreme rainfall. Novel techniques to describe both probability of occurrence and consequences of an event are integrated into the proposed risk-based approach. To model a typical climate-change related phenomenon, i.e. rainfall intensity-duration, a model using copulas is proposed as well as a method to account for uncertainty using structured expert judgement. To quantify the consequences, an existing quick scan tool is adopted. The method calculates the risk of flooding of a tunnel, expressed in both probability of occurrence and subsequent additional travel duration on the road network. By comparison of this evolving risk to a societally acceptable threshold, the remaining resilience of the tunnel is evaluated. Furthermore, the method assesses the development of the resilience over time as a result of projected climate change. The maximum time-to-intervention is defined as the period up until the moment when the resilience is depleted. By application of the method to a tunnel in two different contexts, i.e. in a regional road network and a highway network, it is shown that the consequences of tunnel flooding may differ by an order of magnitude (25-fold for the example). Using a risk-based decision-making perspective leads to significant differences in the maximum time-to-intervention. In the example case the year of intervention is determined at 2020 for a tunnel in a highway network, while interventions can be postponed until 2140 in a regional road network.","climate change; infrastructure; asset management; risk-based design; probabilistic modelling; structured expert judgement","en","journal article","Delft University of Technology, Transport and Logistics Group","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:2d9049f7-d4e1-4a42-a77b-6bbd442d1151","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:2d9049f7-d4e1-4a42-a77b-6bbd442d1151","Evaluating infrastructure resilience to extreme weather – the case of the Dutch electricity transmission network","Bollinger, L.A.; Dijkema, G.P.J.","","2016","This paper reports the development and results of a model exploring the resilience of the Dutch electricity transmission infrastructure to extreme weather events. Climate change is anticipated to result in an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events over the coming decades. Situated in a low-lying coastal delta, the Netherlands may be particularly exposed to certain types of extreme weather(-induced) events. The degree to which the country’s electricity network may prove resilient in the face of these future events is an open question. The model focuses on two types of extreme events – floods and heat waves – and assesses two types of adaptation measures – substation flood protections and demand-side management. The model employs a network-based approach in assessing infrastructure resilience – explicitly representing the structure and properties of the Dutch transmission infrastructure – and extends previous work by accounting for key power system characteristics such as capacity constraints and cascading failures. From a practice perspective, the results offer a first indication of the vulnerability of the Dutch electricity transmission infrastructure in the context of climate change. These results suggest that the network displays some vulnerability to both floods and heat waves. Both types of adaptation measures tested are found to enhance resilience, though substation flood protection shows greater benefits. Whilst the model was specifically developed for the study of electricity networks, we anticipate that this method may also be applicable to other types of transport infrastructures.","climate change; electricity; extreme weather; modelling; network; resilience","en","journal article","Delft University of Technology","","","","","","","","Technology, Policy and Management","","","","",""
"uuid:e700d83d-9e5e-475f-8d33-7af43d1805ca","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:e700d83d-9e5e-475f-8d33-7af43d1805ca","Resilient by design: a modelling approach to support scenario and policy analysis in the Olifants River Basin, South Africa","Clifford Holmes, J.K.V. (Rhodes University); Pollard, S (Association for Water and Rural Development); Biggs, H (Association for Water and Rural Development); Chihambakwe, Kundai (Association for Water and Rural Development); Jonker, Willem; York, Theo; Andres Diaz, Fabio; Slinger, J (TU Delft Policy Analysis; TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering)","","2016","In this paper, we report on a concerted modelling effort in the South African water resources sector in which system dynamics provides the paradigmatic framing for both a stakeholder engagement process and for developing an underpinning, integrative simulation model. We describe the design of the parallel modelling approach and examine the progress to date. We highlight the crafting of the engagement sessions to fit the different characteristics and needs of the participating stakeholders and reflect upon outcomes so as to set the project path into the future. In this, we choose to build resilience by a progression from collecting and exploring individual experiences of stakeholders’ problems; to connecting individuals’ experiences to their broader sectors’ problems; and finally to cross-connecting the sectors’ impacts and requirements to one another under different scenarios of change.","climate change; water management; public policy; stakeholder engagement; resilence; simulation modelling","en","conference paper","System Dynamics Society","","","","","","","","","","Policy Analysis","","",""
"uuid:338218a9-94ec-49f9-a64d-61ffc10a7b3f","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:338218a9-94ec-49f9-a64d-61ffc10a7b3f","Surface thermal analysis of North Brabant cities and neighbourhoods during heat waves","Echevarria Icaza, L. (TU Delft OLD Urban Compositions); van der Hoeven, F.D. (TU Delft OLD Urban Design; TU Delft 100% Research); van den Dobbelsteen, A.A.J.F. (TU Delft Architectural Engineering +Technology)","","2016","The urban heat island effect is often associated with large metropolises. However, in the Netherlands even small cities will be affected by the phenomenon in the future (Hove et al., 2011), due to the dispersed or mosaic urbanisation patterns in particularly the southern part of the country: the province of North Brabant. This study analyses the average night time land surface temperature (LST) of 21 North-Brabant urban areas through 22 satellite images retrieved by Modis 11A1 during the 2006 heat wave and uses Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper to map albedo and normalized difference temperature index (NDVI) values. Albedo, NDVI and imperviousness are found to play the most relevant role in the increase of nighttime LST. The surface cover cluster analysis of these three parameters reveals that the 12 “urban living environment” categories used in the region of North Brabant can actually be reduced to 7 categories, which simplifies the design guidelines to improve the surface
thermal behaviour of the different neighbourhoods thus reducing the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect in existing medium size cities and future developments
adjacent to those cities.","urban heat island; climate change; sustainable urban planning; remote sensing","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","Architectural Engineering +Technology","OLD Urban Compositions","","",""
"uuid:687a8c93-afd3-461c-8297-d47a679f3a76","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:687a8c93-afd3-461c-8297-d47a679f3a76","Relocating a city, challenges and opportunities for the transition of the water infrastructure in Kiruna","Leonhardt, G.; Kuzniecow Bacchin, T.; Mair, M.; Zischg, J.; Ljung, S.; Rogers, B.; Goldkuhl, L.; Gustafsson, A.; Sitzenfrei, R.; Blecken, G.; Ashley, R.; Rauch, W.; van Timmeren, A.; Viklander, M.","","2015","The city of Kiruna in Northern Sweden has become known for the need to relocate major parts of the city. Current and future mining activities in the world’s largest underground iron ore mine are the cause of land subsidence that requires relocation of substantial parts of the town including its water infrastructure. Figure 1 shows the area currently affected and projections thereof for the future. The process of relocating the city has started already and will continue for a few decades. It implies the construction of new urban areas and at the same time demolition in abandoned areas. With regard to the life span of water infrastructure, all actions taken now and in the near future will have an impact over five to ten decades. These circumstances place special demands on processes and technical solutions with regard to robustness, flexibility and mobility and require dealing with changes that cannot yet be foreseen.","climate change; cold climate; deconstruction; Green/Blue infrastructure; water infrastructure transition","en","conference paper","","","","","","","","","Architecture and The Built Environment","Urbanism","","","",""
"uuid:9d4d8658-81a5-4c04-9c2d-b019dee5f09d","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:9d4d8658-81a5-4c04-9c2d-b019dee5f09d","Trends in Moderate Rainfall Extremes: A Regional Monotone Regression Approach","Roth, M.; Buishand, T.A.; Jongbloed, G.","","2015","Rainfall extremes are thought to have increased over recent years. Typically linear trends have been considered to describe the temporal evolution of high quantiles of the daily rainfall distribution. For long records it is important to allow more flexibility. Quantile regression methods are available to estimate monotone trends for single stations. Having multiple stations in a region, the significance of the trend at the regional scale is often of interest. From this perspective the authors propose a regression approach that can be used to estimate a common monotone trend for the site-specific quantiles. Moreover, the method allows for the construction of confidence bands and testing the hypothesis of an existing nondecreasing trend against the null hypothesis of no trend. The approach is applied to 102 series of daily rainfall over the Netherlands for the period 1910–2009. The results are compared with those from a (regional) Mann–Kendall test. Significantly increasing trends are found for the winter season and for the whole year. In the summer season trends are less consistent over the region and are only significant in the western part of the Netherlands. For the summer season, linearity of the trend seems less apparent than for winter and for the whole year. However, the deviation from linearity is not significant.","physical meteorology and climatology; climate change; mathematical and statistical techniques; regression analysis; statistics","en","journal article","American Meteorological Society","","","","","","","2016-05-16","Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science","Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics","","","",""
"uuid:d6534414-b0fe-4b6b-af49-3d329f3326af","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d6534414-b0fe-4b6b-af49-3d329f3326af","Institute of Poldering: Meadow Under Construction","Van Loon, F.D.; Pouderoijen, M.T.; Alberini, E.; Dijkstra, C.M.; Hagen, S.R.; De Jong, M.; Kiliço?lu, I.D.; Koukouvelou, A.; Mekel, M.L.; Schotting, K.; Shao, S.; Sun, X.; Terzi, O.; De Waal, W.; Van der Wal, I.A.; Zhang, B.","","2015","Booklet of the elective course AR0048 2014/2015 ‘Landscape Architecture ON site - being part of Oerol’, an elective course of the MSc2 - Chair of Landscape Architecture at the TU Delft.","landscape architecture; education; polder; climate change; meadow birds; Oerol; Terschelling","en","book","Chair of Landscape Architecture","","","","","","","","Architecture and The Built Environment","Urbanism","","","","53.385000, 5.320000"
"uuid:eb5a59c0-3fcc-49d7-90c6-3d8e88f3dcb2","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:eb5a59c0-3fcc-49d7-90c6-3d8e88f3dcb2","Multi-criteria optimization framework for road infrastructures under different scenario of climate change","Orcesi, A.; Chemineau, H.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.; Van Erp, H.R.N.; Lin, P.H.; Obel Nielsen, K.; Pedersen, C.","","2015","","optimization; bridge management; Markov chains; IQOA scoring system; climate change","en","conference paper","IABSE","","","","","","","","Technology, Policy and Management","Values Technology and Innovation","","","",""
"uuid:6b742e87-e3c4-4096-a73b-67f8bb32eb90","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:6b742e87-e3c4-4096-a73b-67f8bb32eb90","Cleaner fuels to reduce emissions of CO2, NOx and PM10 by container ships: A solution or a box of Pandora?","Vleugel, J.M.; Bal, F.","","2015","Transport vehicles contribute to the on going rise in emissions of CO2 worldwide and emit large amounts of NOx and PM10. The growing demand for container transport is only sustainable if transport becomes ‘greener’. There are innovations, which unite economic and environmental interests. One example it the ongoing increase in ship size, which reduces the cost of shipping by reducing fuel consumption and emissions per container. Another example is the use of alternative fuel (blend)s in ship engines. The central theme in this paper is to better understand the impact of replacing standard fuels in engines of large(r) container ships by alternative fuels (biodiesel, LNG/CNG) on CO2 NOx and PM10 emissions. This leads to the following questions: Can alternative fuels help to significantly reduce CO2, NOx and PM10 emissions in port areas? Does their use allow compensation of the growth in emissions due to the growth in container shipping? It is shown for a typical seaport container terminal that cleaner fuels can contribute to lowering these emissions, even if the volume of containers handled by this terminal triples. The use of what seem at first glance cleaner fuels may however open a box of Pandora as a widespread use of organic biofuel may create serious other environmental problems, additional pressure on local food supply and social stability in already vulnerable areas of the world. More use of natural gas also raises serious environmental concerns.","climate change; emissions; container transport; ports; fuels; tradeoffs","en","conference paper","WIT Press","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Transport & Planning","","","",""
"uuid:bc93e79e-74d0-4443-9e72-db20fc544a3b","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:bc93e79e-74d0-4443-9e72-db20fc544a3b","Stratocumulus transitions in present-day and future climate","Van der Dussen, J.J.","Siebesma, A.P. (promotor); De Roode, S.R. (promotor)","2015","Clouds have a strong net cooling effect on our planet, as they reflect a large part of the incident solar radiation. To be able to make accurate forecasts of the global climate, cloudiness should therefore be correctly represented by climate models. Currently, however there are large differences in the forecasted temperature increase among climate models. One of the most important causes of these differences is the uncertainty in the representation of clouds, in particular of stratocumulus clouds. Stratocumulus clouds are low clouds that often form an almost completely closed cloud deck. Only little sunlight passes through them, so that they are often associated with grey and dull weather. Stratocumulus clouds are frequently found over oceans in the subtropics, where they can cover enormous areas of several millions of square kilometers. When they are advected by the trade winds from the subtropics toward the equator, a transition typically occurs during which the stratocumulus slowly thins and eventually breaks up. Simultaneously, cumulus clouds appear that have a much lower cloud cover and therefore reflect less sunlight. Hence, stratocumulus transitions cause an abrupt decrease of the cloud-induced net cooling effect, which makes them particularly important for climate models. At the same time, the representation of stratocumulus clouds is extremely challenging for climate models, since their development strongly depends on the transport of among others moisture by small-scale turbulence. Due to their coarse resolution, climate models are unable to explicitly simulate processes with typical sizes of a hundred kilometers or less. Hence, turbulent transport, together with other cloud related processes, is represented in a simplified statistical manner by parameterizations, which introduces much uncertainty. During this thesis project we have simulated stratocumulus clouds and their transitions with a numerical model that, in contrast to climate models, is capable of representing the interaction between turbulence and clouds in detail. In chapter two we compare the results of six of these so-called large-eddy simulation models with measurements that had been gathered during a stratocumulus transition. All models are shown to be capable of correctly representing the main features of the transition, including the slow thinning of the stratocumulus and the simultaneous development of cumulus clouds. The simulations yield a wealth of data on the three-dimensional structure of the atmosphere, which is impossible to obtain from measurements. These data allow us to investigate the causes of the thinning and breaking up of stratocumulus clouds during transitions in detail. One of these causes can be sought in the change of the turbulent structure of the atmospheric boundary layer in which the stratocumulus resides. At the start of the transition, the boundary layer is still rather shallow, allowing turbulence to vertically mix the air in it relatively well. Hence, the moisture that evaporates from the ocean surface can easily reach the cloud layer, thereby feeding and maintaining it. As the transition progresses, the boundary layer becomes deeper and the distance between the clouds and the surface increases. It has been suggested that eventually turbulence will not be sufficiently strong anymore to maintain the well-mixed structure of the boundary layer. This so-called decoupling would cause the moisture transport to the stratocumulus to be almost completely cut off, causing it to rapidly dry and dissolve. However, in chapter two we show from the model results that decoupling has less effect on the humidity transport than was originally thought. Another process that is often held responsible for the breaking up of stratocumulus clouds is entrainment. In this process, air from the relatively warm and dry free troposphere is mixed into the boundary layer. Hence, entrainment causes drying and warming of the stratocumulus cloud and is therefore associated with its thinning. In chapter three we derive an equation that describes the change with time of the total amount of condensed water in the cloud. Using this equation we argue that entrainment is indeed an important cause for the thinning of stratocumulus clouds during a transition. On the other hand, we also show that other processes, such as the supply of moisture from the sea surface, can be strong enough to diminish this thinning, even for conditions for which earlier studies predicted an unconditional breakup of the cloud. In the second part of this thesis, we investigate the effect of the warming of the climate on stratocumulus clouds. In chapter four, we perform a set of simulations of stratocumulus clouds for conditions that are representative for the current climate. In a second set of simulations we mimic a future climate by increasing the temperature of the atmosphere and of the sea. This idealized climate perturbation causes a decrease of the thickness and hence the reflectivity of the stratocumulus clouds in all simulations. This suggests that, in a future climate, more solar radiation will be able to reach the Earth's surface than in the current climate. This way, stratocumulus clouds will enhance the warming of the climate. As a result of a warming of the climate, the large-scale atmospheric circulation between the equator and the subtropics, the so-called Hadley circulation, will weaken. In chapter five we show that a weakening of the Hadley circulation delays the breakup of stratocumulus clouds during transitions. Effectively, this leads to an increase of the amount of stratocumulus clouds in a future climate. This mechanism therefore counteracts the reduction of the amount of stratocumulus clouds in response to a climate warming that we found in chapter four, but will likely not be strong enough to completely compensate for it.","stratocumulus; numerical simulation; turbulence; climate change","en","doctoral thesis","","","","","","","","2015-06-22","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Geoscience and Remote Sensing","","","","34, 25"
"uuid:d9cd85d4-2647-49e4-8e7c-df66e27681d3","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d9cd85d4-2647-49e4-8e7c-df66e27681d3","Very long term development of the Dutch Inland Waterway Transport System: Policy analysis, transport projections, shipping scenarios, and a new perspective on economic growth and future discounting","Van Dorsser, J.C.M.","Ligteringen, H. (promotor); Van Wee, G.P. (promotor)","2015","This thesis addresses how a new method for the evaluation of policies with a very long term impact on the Dutch Inland Waterway Transport (IWT) system can be developed. It proposes an outline for a very long term transport model, prepares a number of very long term scenarios, and indicates that a different perspective on economic growth and future discounting is required to obtain realistic projections and develop sensible policies for issues with a very long term impact. Extended summary report: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:ef349716-b484-4820-a02a-d1cd13bc51b8","very long term; inland waterway transport; policy analysis; uncertainty; transport modelling; probabilistic projections; climate change; intermodal transport; scenario analysis; delta scenarios; economic growth; future discounting","en","doctoral thesis","TRAIL Research School","","","","","","","2015-05-13","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:91e2668d-83e1-4ace-b110-3dc2109238e5","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:91e2668d-83e1-4ace-b110-3dc2109238e5","Climate Change Impacts on River Floods: Uncertainty and Adaptation","Wang, L.","Vrijling, J.K. (promotor); Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (promotor)","2015","The modelling frameworks, which include greenhouse gas emission scenarios, climate models, downscaling methods and hydrological models, are generally used to assess climate change impacts on river floods. In this research, the uncertainty associated with each component of the modelling framework is analysed with particular reference to climate change impacts on flood frequency. A method of risk-averse economic optimisation has been proposed for adapting river dikes to climate change under uncertainty. The Huai River Basin in China has been selected as a case study. The outputs of climate models, i.e., General Circulation Models (GCMs), under greenhouse gas emission scenarios have been commonly used as fundamental inputs of the climate change impact assessments. The analysis in this thesis employed the climate model projections of the WCRP CMIP3 and CMIP5 datasets. In Chapter 2, a brief introduction of emission scenarios, as well as a preliminary analysis of the simulative ability and future projections of the participating climate models, is provided. The results confirm the necessity to bias-correct and downscale the climate model outputs before being used in impact-related studies. The annual mean temperature in the study area is suggested to increase up to 8oC at the end of this century under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario without mitigation measures. The standard deviation of precipitation intensity is suggested to increase, especially in summer, which may in the future lead to high-magnitude floods. Empirical statistical downscaling methods are becoming increasingly popular in climate change impact assessments that require downscaling multi-GCM projections. In Chapter 3 empirical statistical downscaling methods are classified based on calibration strategies and statistical transformations. Ten combinations of calibration strategies and transformation methods were used to represent a range of empirical statistical downscaling methods. To test the performance of these methods in downscaling daily precipitation and temperature, an inter-model cross validation was carried out using an ensemble of 16 GCMs. These downscaling methods were further applied to downscale the climate for the future period to assess the associated uncertainties. The results show that the change factor based methods outperform the bias correction based methods in projecting the probability distribution of downscaled daily temperature. With the change factor calibration strategy, simply adding (for temperature) or multiplying (for precipitation) the mean change factor is sufficient to represent most of the relative changes projected by GCMs. The use of quantile based methods appear to be advantageous only at the tails of the distribution. More sophisticated bias correction based methods are needed to remove the biases in the higher-order statistics of the GCM outputs. The two calibration strategies led to fundamentally different temporal structures and spatial variability of the downscaled climatic variables. Bias correction based methods produced larger uncertainty bounds of inter-annual variability than the change factor methods. For downscaled precipitation, the uncertainty arising from the downscaling methods is comparable to the uncertainty arising from GCMs, while more uncertainty is introduced by calibration strategies than statistical transformation methods. There is a growing consensus that the performance of hydrological models should be routinely evaluated before being used in impact-related studies. The uncertainty, which stems from transferring calibrated models to a changing future climate, is receiving increasing attention. Chapter 4 assesses the uncertainties associated with the parameter calibration of the lumped Xinanjiang hydrological model when assessing the climate change impacts on river flow. The transferability of model parameters was tested in the context of historical climate variability using the differential split-sample test. The parameters calibrated from the periods representing differing climatic conditions were used to project future river flow in a changing climate. The uncertainties in projected future river flows stemming from the choice of calibration periods and parameter equifinality were compared. The results show that the transferability of the parameters calibrated from a wet period to a dry period is poorer than the other way around. The model error as well as the variability in the simulations due to equifinality increase with the increase of the difference in rainfall between the calibration and validation periods. The uncertainty due to the choice of calibration periods takes the majority of the total parameter uncertainty in the projected future mean discharge. When the calibration period contains enough information on climate variability, the equifinality effect and the choice of calibration periods contribute comparable magnitudes of uncertainty in terms of extreme discharge. Five sources of uncertainty mentioned above were compared in Chapter 5, i.e. GCM structure, greenhouse gas emission scenario, downscaling method, choice of period for calibrating the hydrological model, and non-uniqueness of hydrological parameters. Multiple samples of flood frequency curves were generated through the combinations of different emission scenarios, GCMs, downscaling methods and hydrological model settings. All samples were given equal weights in the analysis. The results show that the future flood magnitude is expected to increase, not only due to the increase in mean precipitation, but also due to the increase in variation of precipitation. Nonetheless, there is still a small likelihood that the flood quantiles with a high return period (above 20 years) will decrease in the future. The results of uncertainty comparison suggest that the GCM structure is the dominant source of uncertainty, emission scenarios and empirical statistical downscaling methods also result in considerable uncertainty, and the uncertainties related to hydrological model are less than those related to other uncertainty sources. To guarantee a safe flood defence in a changing environment, the adaptation to climate change needs to be considered in the design of river dikes. However, the large uncertainty in the projections of the future climate leads to varied estimations of future flood probability. How to cope with the uncertainties in future flood probability under climate change is an inevitable question in adaptation decision-makings. In Chapter 6, the uncertainty introduced by climate projections was integrated into the ‘expected predictive flood probability’, and the risk-aversion attitude was introduced in the adaptation of river dikes. The uncertainty in the climate change projections on flood probability was represented by the uncertainty in the parameters of the probabilistic model. This parameter uncertainty was estimated based on the outputs from the GCMs participating in IPCC AR4. The parameter uncertainty, estimated from the selected GCMs under different scenarios, was integrated into the expected predictive probability of flooding, which was then used in the risk-averse economic optimization. Different optimal results were obtained based on varied values of the risk-aversion index which represents the risk-averse altitude of decision makers. The case of a dike ring area in the Bengbu City in the Huai River Basin is studied as an example using the proposed approach. The results show that the uncertainty of climate change decreases the optimal safety level and increases the optimal dike heightening up to 8.23 m (with the risk-aversion index of 1.5) in a gradually changing climate. The value would be even larger if the climate will change sooner. Integrated adaptive measures rather than only dike heightening are needed to respond to the uncertain impacts in the future. The proposed approach enables decision makers to cope with climate change and the associated uncertainty by adjusting the level of risk aversion.","climate change; river flood frequency; uncertainty; adaptatioin","en","doctoral thesis","VSSD","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:ef349716-b484-4820-a02a-d1cd13bc51b8","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:ef349716-b484-4820-a02a-d1cd13bc51b8","Very long term development of the Dutch Inland Waterway Transport System: Policy analysis, transport projections, shipping scenarios, and a new perspective on economic growth and future discounting: Extended summary report","Van Dorsser, J.C.M.","Wolters, M.A. (contributor)","2015","This report, that provides an extended summary of a similar named thesis, addresses how a new method for the evaluation of policies with a very long term impact on the Dutch Inland Waterway Transport (IWT) system can be developed. It proposes an outline for a very long term transport model, prepares a number of very long term scenarios, and indicates that a different perspective on economic growth and future discounting is required to obtain realistic projections and develop sensible policies for issues with a very long term impact.","very long term; inland waterway transport; policy analysis; uncertainty; transport modelling; climate change; intermodal transport; scenario analysis; delta scenarios; economic growth; future discounting","en","report","Rijkswaterstaat","","","","","","","2015-05-13","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:bb8df4dd-f74e-44e6-a229-253d59e60c49","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:bb8df4dd-f74e-44e6-a229-253d59e60c49","The effects of weather and climate change on cycling in Northern Norway","Mathisen, T.A.; Annema, J.A.; Kroesen, M.","","2015","Weather is identified as one of many factors that influence the demand for cycling. Weather patterns will change due to expected climate change. The aim of this article is to study the extent to which climate change influences the cycling frequency. The analysis in this article is conducted using an econometric model based on data spanning over four years on weather indicators and the cycling frequency in the Norwegian city of Bodø, which is located north of the Arctic Circle. According to the projections for climate change, both temperature and quantity of precipitation are expected to increase in this area during the next century. An important consequence of changes in the climate in the studied region is the reduced duration of what can be characterised as the winter season. However, this consequence is highly uncertain. When using Norway’s middle projections for climate change by 2050, the analysis shows a moderate increase in cycling frequency of 6.2%. For the reduced winter period, the cycle rate might be two and three times higher in 2050 compared to the current level. Both estimates assume that every other potential impact on cycling rates remain equal.","bicycle use; climate change; precipitation; temperature; weather indicators; wind speed","en","journal article","Delft University of Technology, Transport and Logistics Group","","","","","","","","Technology, Policy and Management","Engineering Systems and Services","","","",""
"uuid:d45aea59-a449-46ad-ace1-3254529c05f4","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d45aea59-a449-46ad-ace1-3254529c05f4","Fostering Climate Resilient Electricity Infrastructures","Bollinger, L.A.","Weijnen, M.P.C. (promotor); Dijkema, G.P.J. (promotor)","2015","Heat waves, hurricanes, floods and windstorms - recent years have seen dramatic failures in electricity infrastructures sparked by short-term departures of environmental conditions from their norms. Driven by a changing climate, such deviations are anticipated to increase in severity and/or frequency over the coming decades. This will have important implications for the systems that supply and transport our electricity. In light of this, resilience is an essential characteristic of future infrastructure systems. The notion of resilience implicitly accepts the possibility of unforeseen disruptions and failures and focuses on the capacity of systems to handle them - to survive unexpected perturbation, recover from adversity and gracefully degrade - as well as an ability to adapt and learn over time. How can we foster a climate resilient electricity infrastructure in the Netherlands? To address this question, this thesis synthesizes insights from multiple computer models using multiple modeling techniques. These models stress the nature of the electricity infrastructure as a complex and evolving system, interconnected within itself and with other infrastructures. Beyond these insights, the thesis contributes a framework, an approach and a set of tools for supporting the development of climate resilient electricity infrastructures in the Netherlands and elsewhere.","electricity; infrastructure; network; climate change; resilience; modeling & simulation; interdependency","en","doctoral thesis","Next Generation Infrastructures Foundation","","","","","","","","Technology, Policy and Management","ESS","","","",""
"uuid:35bc63d3-c949-48da-8f26-9100836e7c45","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:35bc63d3-c949-48da-8f26-9100836e7c45","Aerosol direct radiative effect of smoke over clouds over the southeast Atlantic Ocean from 2006 to 2009","De Graaf, M.; Bellouin, N.; Tilstra, L.G.; Haywood, J.; Stammes, P.","","2014","The aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE) of African smoke was analyzed in cloud scenes over the southeast Atlantic Ocean, using Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY) satellite observations and Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2 (HadGEM2) climate model simulations. The observed mean DRE was about 30–35 W m?2 in August and September 2006–2009. In some years, short episodes of high-aerosol DRE can be observed, due to high-aerosol loadings, while in other years the loadings are lower but more prolonged. Climate models that use evenly distributed monthly averaged emission fields will not reproduce these high-aerosol loadings. Furthermore, the simulated monthly mean aerosol DRE in HadGEM2 is only about 6?W m?2 in August. The difference with SCIAMACHY mean observations can be partly explained by an underestimation of the aerosol absorption Ångström exponent in the ultraviolet. However, the subsequent increase of aerosol DRE simulation by about 20% is not enough to explain the observed discrepancy between simulations and observations.","clouds; aerosols; climate change; remote sensing","en","journal article","American Geophysical Union","","","","","","","2015-05-11","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Geoscience & Remote Sensing","","","",""
"uuid:460a62f7-233e-404d-8a59-4571f13b61c4","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:460a62f7-233e-404d-8a59-4571f13b61c4","Innovations in building regulation and control for advancing sustainability in buildings (I)","Meacham, B.; Visscher, H.J.; Meijer, F.M.; Chan, C.; Chan, E.; Laubscher, J.; Neng Kwei Sung, J.; Dodds, B.; Serra, J.; Tenorio, J.A.; Echeverria, J.B.; Sanches-Ostiz, A.","","2014","This session brings together policy-makers, government officials, researchers and others to present perspectives on how innovation in building regulation and control, such as performancebased approaches, are currently being used to advance sustainability concepts in buildings, and where and how we might see further innovation in the coming years. In this grouping of session papers, representatives of the Inter-jurisdictional Regulatory Collaboration Committee (IRCC) and the International Council for Research and Innovation in Building and Construction (CIB) Task Group 79 discuss a range of policies implements in their countries or the focus of research and development in their respective countries. Related papers can be found in the corresponding set of session papers (Innovations in Building Regulation and Control for Advancing Sustainability in Buildings (II)).","building regulatory systems; building control; performance-based; sustainability; climate change; resiliency","en","conference paper","Green Building Council España","","","","","","","","Architecture and The Built Environment","OTB","","","",""
"uuid:e6ae1e15-a21e-4ec0-868f-294b4e026447","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:e6ae1e15-a21e-4ec0-868f-294b4e026447","Spatial planning and urban resilience in the context of flood risk: A comparative study of Kaohsiung, Tainan and Rotterdam","Lu, P.","Nadin, V. (promotor); Stead, D. (promotor)","2014","Spatial planning is increasingly being considered as an important mechanism in coping with flood risk due to climate change. One of the reasons for this is that engineering approaches are increasingly expensive and cannot provide complete certainty of protection against climate-related floods. The thesis examines whether and how spatial planning is used in urban areas to promote resilience to flood risk and climate change. In this study, planning is considered as the regulation of physical implementation as well as the process of policy-making that guides spatial development. This process mainly involves the interaction and collaboration between actors (both public and private). The notion of resilience is being used more and more in discussions of complex issues like the impact of climate-related flood risks on spatial development. The interpretations of resilience can vary significantly depending on the local context, the focus of spatial development and the interests of the actors involved in decision- making. The study proposes six characteristics of planning decision-making that can help to promote the resilience of cities. These comprise: (i) considering the current situation, (ii) examining trends and future threats, (iii) learning from previous experience, (iv) setting goals, (v) initiating actions, and (vi) involving the public. The importance of these characteristics over time for policy and practice is examined according to empirical evidence from detailed case study analysis. Six case studies are presented, four in Taiwan and two in the Netherlands. In all of the case studies, the issue of flood risk and spatial development is considered important by policy- makers, but the planning strategies used to tackle climate-related flood risks are often different, as are the experiences of flooding and governance arrangements. The information gathered is primarily based on interviews and the review of planning policies, government reports and research documents. Comparative analysis is a central focus of the study. The analysis has both a national and international perspective, comparing cases within Taiwan and between Taiwan and the Netherlands. The national comparison examines the way in which local planning governance is addressed in shaping decisions to deal with flood risks. This can vary among cases which share similar spatial development objectives and national institutional framework. The international comparison between Taiwan and the Netherlands examines the roles of planning to promote urban resilience in the context of flood risk and climate change. Three conclusions can be drawn. First, the interpretation of resilience is dependent on the views and interests of the actors involved. These change over time and can be seen in different episodes of policy-making. Second, the importance of the different assessment characteristics varies from one case to another. The interests of the leading actors, the interpretations of flood risks and the framework of local collaboration are all major factors that shape these differences. These factors are often associated with planning traditions and relatively stable in resistant to change. Third, when there is a collaborative framework for planning involving multiple actors, the result is a more comprehensive set of strategies in dealing with flood risk.","spatial planning; urban resilience; flood risk; comparison; Kaohsiung; Tainan; Rotterdam; climate change; urbanism","en","doctoral thesis","abe.tudelft.nl","","","","","","","2014-08-29","Architecture and The Built Environment","Urbanism","","","",""
"uuid:ae3e1d1a-fefc-4a05-96a7-978bc2c902f4","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:ae3e1d1a-fefc-4a05-96a7-978bc2c902f4","The pattern of anthropogenic signal emergence in Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance","Fyke, J.G.; Vizcaino, M.; Lipscomb, W.H.","","2014","Surface mass balance (SMB) trends influence observed Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass loss, but the component of these trends related to anthropogenic forcing is unclear. Here we study the simulated spatial pattern of emergence of an anthropogenically derived GrIS SMB signal between 1850 and 2100 using the Community Earth System Model. We find emergence timing heterogeneity, with a bimodal structure reflecting interior snowfall increases against a background of low SMB variability, and peripheral surface melting increases against a backdrop of high SMB variability. We also find a nonemerging intermediate region. We conclude that (1) a bimodal pattern of GrIS SMB change will unambiguously reflect the impact of anthropogenic forcing; (2) present-day peripheral and interior SMB trends likely have an underlying anthropogenically forced component; (3) local emergence occurs well before emergence of a spatially integrated signal; and (4) the GrIS summit region may be an ideal location for monitoring regional/global climate change.","Greenland; surface mass balance; anthropogenic signal; climate change; cryosphere","en","journal article","American Geophysical Union","","","","","","","2015-02-18","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Geoscience & Remote Sensing","","","",""
"uuid:a8c9c5d6-fb18-433b-a801-b7bb9060badb","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:a8c9c5d6-fb18-433b-a801-b7bb9060badb","Adaptation of interconnected infrastructures to climate change: A socio-technical systems perspective","Chappin, E.J.L.; Van der Lei, T.","","2014","Climate change is likely to affect how society will function in this century. Because climate change effects may be severe, a next step is to study not only the effects on natural systems, but also the effects on built infrastructure systems and, in response to anticipated effects, the adaptation of those systems. Studies that discuss interconnected infrastructures, society's backbones, in light of climate change are emerging. We apply a socio-technical systems perspective in order to gain insight into the effects of climate change on our infrastructure systems and possible adaption strategies for the coming decades. We use this perspective to collect and describe the literature on adaptation of infrastructures to climate change. We find that the analysed papers predominantly focus on specific geographic areas and that various types of impacts on and interdependencies of built socio-technical systems are recognized, not only for energy and transport, but also for water infrastructures. A missing step is the modelling of adaptation measures. Recent literature enables an exploration of strategies for adaptation, which should be expected in the coming years.","adaptation; climate change; infrastructures; literature review; socio-technical systems","en","journal article","Elsevier","","","","","","","","Technology, Policy and Management","Engineering, Systems and Services","","","",""
"uuid:11b2d92d-e044-43fc-a127-b135ba478bcb","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:11b2d92d-e044-43fc-a127-b135ba478bcb","Coping with coastal change","Nicholls, R.J.; Stive, M.J.F.; Tol, R.S.J.","","2014","The coastal zone is one of the most dynamic environments on our planet and is much affected by global change, especially sea-level rise. Coastal environments harbour valuable ecosystems, but they are also hugely important from a societal point of view. This book, which draws on the expertise of 21 leading international coastal scientists, represents an up-to-date account of coastal environments and past, present and future impacts of global change. The first chapter of the book outlines key principles that underpin coastal systems and their behaviour. This is followed by a discussion of key processes, including sea level change, sedimentation, storms, waves and tides, that drive coastal change. The main part of the book consists of a discussion of the main coastal environments (beaches, dunes, barriers, salt marshes, tidal flats, estuaries, coral reefs, deltas, rocky and glaciated coasts and coastal groundwater), and how these are affected by global change. The final chapter highlights strategies for coping with coastal change. This chapter focusses on how to cope with coastal change and its implications. There are two major types of response: (1) Mitigation represents source control of drivers, such as greenhouse gas emissions and groundwater withdrawal (leading to artificial subsidence). (2) Adaptation refers to behavioural changes that range from individual actions through to collective coastal management policy, such as upgraded defence systems, warning systems and land management approaches. Thus, mitigation addresses the causes of coastal change, whereas adaptation deals with the consequences. This chapter is structured as follows. First, the different drivers of coastal change are briefly reviewed.Then the impacts of coastal change are briefly considered from a physical and a socio-economic perspective, including drawing on experience from locations of rapid change, such as deltas and subsiding cities, and considering direct and indirect impacts. This is followed by a discussion of the responses to the challenges of coastal change, with an emphasis on adaptation, including its implications for coastal zone management. This includes consideration of valuation methods and decision analysis approaches.","climate change; coastal adaptation; coastal zone management; sea level rise","en","book chapter","John Wiley and Sons Ltd","","","","","","Campus only","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:bc6a5558-3de7-4c5f-9356-552d9d74383e","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:bc6a5558-3de7-4c5f-9356-552d9d74383e","Space-time variation of hydrological processes and water resources in Rwanda: Focus on the Migina catchment","Munyaneza, O.","Uhlenbrook, S. (promotor)","2014","This book presents the hydrological research carried out in the Migina catchment (260 km2), Southern Rwanda. The main objective of the research is to explore the hydrological trends and climate linkages for catchments in Rwanda (26,338 km2), and to contribute to the understanding of dominant hydrological process interactions. Different hydro-meteorological instrumentations have been installed in the Migina catchment during April 2009 to July 2009 and measurements have been carried out and are still ongoing. The trend analysis is based on Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Pettitt test on times series data varying from 30 to 56 years before 2000. The hydrometric data and modern tracer methods are used for hydrograph separation and show that subsurface runoff is dominating the total discharge even during rainy seasons of May 2010 and 2011 at Cyihene-Kansi and Migina sub-catchments, respectively. Further, a semi-distributed conceptual hydrological model HEC-HMS is applied for assessing the spatio-temporal variation of water resources in the Migina catchment. The model results are compared with tracer based hydrograph separation results in terms of the runoff components. The model performed reasonably well in simulating the total flow volume, peak flow and timing as well as the portion of direct runoff and baseflow.","climate change; HEC-HMS; hydrological modelling; Migina catchment; Rwanda; runoff components; tracer method; trend analysis; water resources","en","doctoral thesis","CRC Press/Balkema","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Water Management","","","",""
"uuid:fe695660-3965-4f0c-90ca-1a3d7bfaacbd","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:fe695660-3965-4f0c-90ca-1a3d7bfaacbd","Accelerated lake expansion on the Tibetan Plateau in the 2000s: Induced by glacial melting or other processes?","Song, C.; Huang, B.; Richards, K.; Ke, L.; Phan Hien, V.","","2014","ccelerated lake expansion in the 2000s has been confirmed by both dramatic lake-area increases (for 312 lakes larger than 10 km2) derived from optical images, and rapid water-level rises (for 117 lakes with water-level data) measured by satellite altimetry. However, the underlying climate causes remain unclear. This paper analyzes the relationship between the water-level changes of lakes on the plateau and the potential driving factors, such as the glacier meltwater supply and a dependency on precipitation and runoff over the whole plateau and in each zone. The results show that the rates of change of non-glacier-fed lakes in the 2000s were as high as those of glacier-fed lakes across the whole plateau and the lake-level changes were closely associated with the lake supply coefficients (the basin/lake area ratio). The lake variations agreed well with the spatial pattern of precipitation changes. However, in different zones, especially at around 33°N north of the plateau, glacier-fed lakes did exhibit faster lake level increases than no-glacier-fed lakes, indicating that the presence of a glacier meltwater supply augmented the precipitation-driven lake expansions in these areas. Despite the absence of quantitative modeling due to limited data availability, this study provides qualitative support that the lake expansions on the Tibetan Plateau in the 2000s have been driven primarily by changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration and not solely by the effect of glacier wastage.","lake; Tibetan Plateau; water level; glacier; climate change","en","journal article","American Geophysical Union","","","","","","","2014-10-10","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Geoscience & Remote Sensing","","","",""
"uuid:b78d47bd-57bd-49f2-9c2b-d582dc7bd7cd","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:b78d47bd-57bd-49f2-9c2b-d582dc7bd7cd","Delivering Integrated Flood Risk Management: Governance for collaboration, learning and adaptation","Van Herk, S.","Zevenbergen, C. (promotor); Ashley, R.A. (promotor)","2014","The frequency and consequences of extreme flood events have increased rapidly worldwide in recent decades and climate change and economic growth are likely to exacerbate this trend. Flood protection measures alone cannot accommodate the future frequencies and impacts of flooding. Integrated flood risk management (IFRM) considers a portfolio of measures to reduce flood risk that comprises flood protection, but also land use planning and emergency management. The implementation of IFRM policies and projects is not straightforward and guidance is lacking. IFRM requires collaboration between multiple disciplines and by a group of stakeholders with various interests and means. The stakeholders have to combine objectives and funding from different policy domains and consider a range of possible options at all spatial scale levels and for various time horizons. Moreover the overarching societal system and its incumbent cultures, structures and practices are yet unfit for IFRM. This dissertation provides guidance for IFRM: governance arrangements for planning processes; for stimulating learning and collaboration; for adaptation of the physical (natural and man-made) and societal systems. It presents 4 appealing case studies from the Netherlands. This work brings new insights to the scientific domains of inter alia: flood risk management; adaptive co-management; and transition management, particularly through their mutual enrichment.","integrated flood risk management; governance; collaboration; learning; adaptation; climate change","en","doctoral thesis","CRC Press/Balkema, Taylor & Francis Group","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:d9d652e3-0ba5-403e-b367-51061e676eae","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d9d652e3-0ba5-403e-b367-51061e676eae","Future climate warming increases Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance variability","Fyke, J.G.; Vizcaino, M.; Lipscomb, W.; Price, S.","","2014","The integrated surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has large interannual variability. Long-term future changes to this variability will affect GrIS dynamics, freshwater fluxes, regional oceanography, and detection of changes in ice volume trends. Here we analyze a simulated 1850–2100 GrIS SMB time series from the Community Earth System Model, currently the only global climate model that realistically simulates GrIS SMB. We find a significant increase in interannual integrated SMB variability over time, which we attribute primarily to a shift to a high-variability melt-dominated SMB regime due to GrIS ablation area growth. We find temporal increases to characteristic ablation and accumulation area-specific SMB variabilities to be of secondary importance. Since ablation area SMB variability is driven largely by variability in summer surface melt, variability in the climate processes regulating the energy fluxes that control melting will likely increasingly determine future GrIS SMB variability.","Greenland ice sheet; climate change; climate variability; climate modeling","en","journal article","American Geophysical Union","","","","","","","2014-07-21","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Geoscience & Remote Sensing","","","",""
"uuid:8931586d-b653-42e7-806c-a6bea9ef6202","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:8931586d-b653-42e7-806c-a6bea9ef6202","Extreme precipitation response to climate perturbations in an atmospheric mesoscale model","Attema, J.J.; Loriaux, J.M.; Lenderink, G.","","2014","Observations of extreme (sub) hourly precipitation at midlatitudes show a large dependency on the dew point temperature often close to 14% per degree—2 times the dependency of the specific humidity on dew point temperature which is given by the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) relation. By simulating a selection of 11 cases over the Netherlands characterized by intense showers, we investigate this behavior in the nonhydrostatic weather prediction model Harmonie at a resolution of 2.5 km. These experiments are repeated using perturbations of the atmospheric profiles of temperature and humidity: (i) using an idealized approach with a 2º warmer (colder) atmosphere assuming constant relative humidity, and (ii) using changes in temperature and humidity derived from a long climate change simulation at 2º global warming. All perturbations have a difference in the local dew point temperature compared to the reference of approximately 2º. Differences are considerable between the cases, with dependencies ranging from almost zero to an increase of 18% per degree rise of the dew point temperature. On average however, we find an increase of extreme precipitation intensity of 11% per degree for the idealized perturbation, and 9% per degree for the climate change perturbation. For the most extreme events these dependencies appear to approach a rate of 11–14% per degree, in closer agreement with the observed relation.","precipitation; extremes; convection; climate change; nonhydrostatic; meso scale modelling","en","journal article","Institute of Physics","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Geoscience & Remote Sensing","","","",""
"uuid:c003b30e-99e0-4651-9512-5c8af5c437ae","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:c003b30e-99e0-4651-9512-5c8af5c437ae","Effects of Climate Change on Drinking Water Distribution Network Integrity: Predicting Pipe Failure Resulting from Differential Soil Settlement","Wols, B.A.; Van Daal, K.; Van Thienen, P.","","2014","Climate change may result in lowering of ground water levels and consolidation of the soil. The resulting (differential) settlements, associated with soil property transitions, may damage underground pipe infrastructure, such as drinking water distribution sys- tems. The work presented here offers an approach for the prediction of pipe failure under conditions of differential settlement. A probabilistic model for pipe failure has been implemented in a geographical information system (GIS) environment. The GIS tool uses information on the drinking water distribution system, soil properties and expected soil settlements to predict pipe bending stresses in a probabilistic framework, so that the vulnerability of a drinking water distribution network towards soil settlements can be assessed. This model approach allows water companies to perform a quick scan of their drinking water distribution network integrity towards different expected climate scenarios","pipe stresses; pipe failure; climate change; soil settlements; GIS","en","journal article","Elsevier","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Water Management","","","",""
"uuid:1dfa7266-f804-45fa-8f10-7abfcb2496af","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:1dfa7266-f804-45fa-8f10-7abfcb2496af","Optimisation of Heating Energy Demand and Thermal Comfort of a Courtyard-Atrium Dwelling","Taleghani, M.; Tenpierik, M.; Dobbelsteen, A.","","2013","In the light of energy reduction, transitional spaces are recognised as ways to receive natural light and fresh air. This paper analyses the effects of courtyard and atrium as two types of transitional spaces on heating demand and thermal comfort of a Dutch low-rise dwelling, at current and future climate in 2050. The inclusion of a courtyard within a reference Dutch terraced dwelling showed an increase in annual heating energy demand and a decrease in the number of discomfort hours. In contrast, covering the courtyard and making an atrium led to reduction in the heating demand but more discomfort hours. Results showed that using a courtyard in May through October and covering that (as an atrium) for the rest of the year is the most efficient situation in the Netherlands","heating demand; indoor thermal comfort; courtyard; atrium; climate change","en","conference paper","PLEA","","","","","","","","Architecture","Architectural Engineering +Technology","","","",""
"uuid:1672f112-00f8-4cf6-b6fe-934086389684","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:1672f112-00f8-4cf6-b6fe-934086389684","Resilience to flooding: Draft building code","Clarkson, J.D.; Braun, K.; Desoto-Duncan, A.; Forsyth, G.; De Gijt, J.G.; Huber, N.P.; Miller, D.; Rigo, P.; Sullivan, D.","","2013","A significant issue associated Flood Defence Systems (FDS) is the difficulty of predicting how these structures will behave when inevitably they have been loaded beyond their designed capacity by a flood. The flood can cause these structures to fail catastrophically with loss of life and substantial damage to property. For a limited incremental investment, by including resilient features shown in this document, the FDS can dramatically lessen the chances for loss of life and property damage. While not a building code, the following provides guidance on how to improve the resilience of FDS so they will not fail catastrophically when overloaded beyond their designed capacity. Of all ""lessons learnt"" most important is to explicitly incorporate the consequences of failure and the possibility of being wrong in one's assumptions into the design process. Building in the flood plain will always have risk; the public should not become over confident just because a FDS is place. While it is recognized that an Integrated Water Basin perspective would include retention zones, restricted developments in flood plains, land use planning, awareness raising, flood resistant construction, drainage and water storage improvement, effective evacuation planning and other measures.","climate change; catastrophic failure; draft building code; flood defence system; flood resilience","en","conference paper","Centre for Water Systems, University of Exeter","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:02586292-8ff1-4c20-bca4-bea2f5a56677","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:02586292-8ff1-4c20-bca4-bea2f5a56677","Coping with the uncertainties in the climate change adaptation of river dikes using risk-aversion economic optimization","Wang, L.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.; Vrijling, J.K.; Ranasinghe, R.W.M.R.J.B.; Maskey, S.","","2013","To guarantee a safe flood defence in a changing environment, the adaptation to climate change needs to be considered in the design of river dikes. However, the large uncertainty in the projections of future climate leads to varied estimations of future flood probability. How to cope with the uncertainties in future flood probability under climate change is an inevitable question in the adaptation. In this paper, the uncertainty introduced by climate projections was integrated into the ‘expected predictive flood probability’, and the risk-aversion attitude was introduced in the adaptation of river dikes. In detail, the uncertain effect of climate change on flood probability was represented by the uncertainty in the parameters of the probabilistic model. This parameter uncertainty was estimated based on the outputs from the GCMs participated in IPCC AR4. The parameter uncertainty estimated from different GCMs under selected scenarios was integrated into the expected predictive probability of flooding, which was used in the risk-aversion economic optimization. Different optimal results were obtained based on varied values of the risk-aversion index. The case of Bengbu Dike in China was studied as an example using the proposed approach. The results show that the uncertain effect of climate change causes an increase of optimal dike height but a decrease of the optimal safety level. The proposed approach enables decision makers to cope with the uncertain effects of climate change by adjusting their risk-aversion attitude.","climate change; uncertainty; risk-aversion optimisation","en","conference paper","European Water Resources Association (EWRA)","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:ffd317ac-32a4-4fe4-a183-8590aefe34e8","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:ffd317ac-32a4-4fe4-a183-8590aefe34e8","The central role of the construction sector for climate change adaptions in the built environment","Roders, M.J.; Straub, A.; Visscher, H.J.","","2013","Over the past years, research has clearly enunciated the necessity of adaptation to climate change in the built environment. Policy is being developed on national and municipal levels to have adaptations implemented. However, for the actual application of the measures, property owners are the actors that have to commission the construction industry to take action. But the construction sector is highly fragmented, causing several barriers for an easy uptake of measures other than the ‘business as usual’ ones. Based on rehabilitation intervention processes where technical measures are applied to dwellings of a housing association in the Netherlands, a governance approach for implementing adaptation measures is explored that focuses on collaboration in the construction process. In the proposed approach actors are working closely together, guided by elements of network governance. By not only integrating the complete supply chain, but also making it ‘intelligent and aware’, climate adaptation is no longer a surplus to the process, but reflected in any decision.","adaptation measures; climate change; construction process; networks","en","conference paper","International Council for Research and Innovation in Building and Construction (CIB)","","","","","","","","OTB Research Institute for the Built Environment","OTB Research","","","",""
"uuid:322af637-17d2-430b-bb1e-839031081bc0","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:322af637-17d2-430b-bb1e-839031081bc0","Scenario based learning regarding contested articulations of sustainability: The example of hydropower and Sweden's energy future","Mulder, K.F.; Petrik, O.; Parandian, A.; Grondahl, F.","","2012","Providing electricity from renewable sources is of key importance both to reduce depletion of fossil fuels and reduce emissions of greenhouse gasses. Many of the renewable energy technologies are not ideal for electricity networks. Reservoir hydropower is one of the most ideal renewable sources as it can store energy efficiently, and can be made quickly available in cases of peak loads. Reservoir hydropower generation has considerable impact on the landscape. Reservoirs and dams are perhaps the most visible elements, but the effects of a regulated flow of rivers on the river ecosystem, and the ecology of the river banks, is considerable. In Sweden, hydropower has a long tradition of being an arena for environmental controversy. Historically, various river related economic interests collided, but nowadays river basin ecology and sports fisheries are important issues too. [cf. 1]. Swedish Government has high ambitions regarding climate change: it aims at becoming the first fossil free country within 40 years. Unlike the traditional image of Swedish society, there is no consensus on the hydropower issue but a fortified dissensus. Communication between the contestants is limited to regular clashes (accusations) in the media rather than sensible interaction between different stakeholders on basis of substance of the issues at stake. This paper describes a specific approach which brings together different stakeholders in an orchestrated and supported setting so that interaction between different stakeholders can take place on basis of the content and substance of various issues that are faced. The main aim of the workshop was to facilitate interaction through which the participants could gain a more substantive insight in each other’s positions and background arguments regarding different issues at hand. The interaction was supported by specific tools: External scenarios and value based scenarios were developed for analyzing the future of (hydro-) electricity production in Sweden. We evaluate specific learning effect of the participants as a measure of productivity of our approach. The attendance of the workshop was very good. Our post workshop evaluations show very encouraging results in terms of new insights in each other’s positions.","learning; scenario workshops; hydropower; climate change; biodiversity","en","journal article","IASKS","","","","","","","","Technology, Policy and Management","Values and Technology","","","",""
"uuid:f985cec4-cf94-4126-a885-b77c63132144","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:f985cec4-cf94-4126-a885-b77c63132144","Balancing Water Resources Development and Environmental Sustainability in Africa: A Review of Recent Research Findings and Applications","McClain, M.E.","","2012","Sustainable development in Africa is dependent on increasing use of the continent’s water resources without significantly degrading ecosystem services that are also fundamental to human wellbeing. This is particularly challenging in Africa because of high spatial and temporal variability in the availability of water resources and limited amounts of total water availability across expansive semiarid portions of the continent. The challenge is compounded by ambitious targets for increased water use and a rush of international funding to finance development activities. Balancing development with environmental sustainability requires (i) understanding the boundary conditions imposed by the continent’s climate and hydrology today and into the future, (ii) estimating the magnitude and spatial distribution of water use needed to meet development goals, and (iii) understanding the environmental water requirements of affected ecosystems, their current status and potential consequences of increased water use. This article reviews recent advancements in each of these topics and highlights innovative approaches and tools available to support sustainable development. While much remains to be learned, scientific understanding and technology should not be viewed as impediments to sustainable development on the continent.","sustainable development; biodiversity conservation; food security; hydro-power development; environmental flows; climate change","en","journal article","Springer-Verlag","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","","","","",""
"uuid:96ba9392-3188-40fb-be51-5ca9eefb4f9f","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:96ba9392-3188-40fb-be51-5ca9eefb4f9f","A flood vulnerability index for coastal cities and its use in assessing climate change impacts","Balica, S.F.; Wright, N.G.; Van der Meulen, F.","","2012","Worldwide, there is a need to enhance our understanding of vulnerability and to develop methodologies and tools to assess vulnerability. One of the most important goals of assessing coastal flood vulnerability, in particular, is to create a readily understandable link between the theoretical concepts of flood vulnerability and the day-to-day decision-making process and to encapsulate this link in an easily accessible tool. This article focuses on developing a C astal City Flood Vulnerability Index (CCFVI) based on exposure, susceptibility and resilience to coastal flooding. It is applied to nine cities around the world, each with different kinds of exposure. With the aid of this index, it is demonstrated which cities are most vulnerable to coastal flooding with regard to the system’s components, that is, hydro-geological, socio-economic and politico-administrative. The index gives a number from 0 to 1, indicating comparatively low or high coastal flood vulnerability, which shows which cities are most in need of further, more detailed investigation for decision-makers. Once its use to compare the vulnerability of a range of cities under current conditions has been demonstrated, it is used to study the impact of climate change on the vulnerability of these cities over a longer timescale. The results show that CCFVI provides a means of obtaining a broad overview of flood vulnerability and the effect of possible adaptation options. This, in turn, will allow for the direction of resources to more in-depth investigation of the most promising strategies.","Coastal City Flood Vulnerability Index (CCFVI); urbanised deltas; climate change","en","journal article","Springer-Verlag","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:c0989ed5-a5dd-4220-a714-d3f1512c4b5a","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:c0989ed5-a5dd-4220-a714-d3f1512c4b5a","Hydrological Changes of the Irtysh River and the Possible Causes","Huang, F.; Xia, Z.; Li, F.; Guo, L.; Yang, F.","","2012","Hydrological changes of the Irtysh River were analyzed concerning the changes of annual runoff and its distribution features within a year measured by coefficient of variation and concentration degree. Abrupt changes were detected by the heuristic segmentation method. Possible causes of the hydrological changes were investigated considering climate changes and human activities (especially the reservoir operation). The Mann-Kendall method was applied to estimate whether the temperature and precipitation was changed. The increased precipitation in winter may increase the runoff of April. The increased temperature and the decreased precipitation in the flood season may decrease the runoff. At the middle reaches, the impact of the reservoirs at the upper reaches is significant and may be the main factor leading to the abrupt decreases in annual runoff and its intra-annual variability and concentration. The increased water surface area of the reservoirs aggravates the evaporation and leads to annual runoff reduction. The reservoirs regulate runoff by storing water in the flood season and releasing water in the dry season. While at the lower reaches, the annual runoff remained steady and its intra-annual variation and concentration were reduced gradually because the impact of the reservoirs is relative small and the climatic impact may be more relevant.","hydrological change; climate change; reservoir operation; The Irtysh River","en","journal article","Springer","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:9ade3679-db18-4a8a-af9f-14dbb2af1a3b","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:9ade3679-db18-4a8a-af9f-14dbb2af1a3b","Modeling the adaptation of infrastructures to prevent the effects of climate change: An overview of existing literature","Chappin, E.J.L.; Van der Lei, T.","","2012","Climate change is likely to affect our infrastructures and, consequently, the way society interacts with these infrastructures. For instance, higher average temperatures increase the need for electricity delivered through the grid in the summer due to augmented air-conditioning. As the scientific consensus is that climate change effects may be severe, a next step is to divert the focus from the natural system to the effects on man-made systems. Particularly, we expect that the interconnectedness of man-made systems, especially energy, transport, ICT and water infrastructures is important with respect to cascading effects of climate change. In order to gain insight into the effects of climate change on our infrastructures and possible adaption strategies for the coming decades, we describe a literature search on the intersection of literature on infrastructures and climate change. Specifically, we search for ways to adapt our energy and transport infrastructures and make them resilient against the consequences of climate change and modeling approaches that simulate these adaption strategies for our infrastructure systems. We have found that, although there is a vast body of literature on climate change, less attention was paid to the effects of climate change on infrastructures. Our literature analysis shows that there is ample literature measuring the effects of climate change on individual technologies and parts of infrastructures. In contrast, the literature on the systems level, the adaptation of infrastructures and infrastructure interdependencies is just emerging. We anticipate that future research attention needs to be diverted from the analysis of a technical component (when will my bridge be broken) to the technical system level (how do I judge/measure when to replace a road section (including the bridge)?) or even to one of the socio-technical system level (how can I adapt the system as a whole as to prevent the effects of a tunnel breakdown?). We conjecture that suitable simulations and models should be developed to explore adaptation strategies at these levels of aggregation.","climate change; infrastructures; socio-technical systems; agent-based modeling","en","conference paper","","","","","","","","","Technology, Policy and Management","Infrastructures, Systems and Services","","","",""
"uuid:be8d8d8a-bc0e-4de5-8e78-b8dc6090776c","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:be8d8d8a-bc0e-4de5-8e78-b8dc6090776c","Towards regional projections of twenty-first century sea-level change based on IPCC SRES scenarios","Slangen, A.B.A.; Katsman, C.A.; Van de Wal, R.S.W.; Vermeersen, L.L.A.; Riva, R.E.M.","","2012","Sea-level change is often considered to be globally uniform in sea-level projections. However, local relative sea-level (RSL) change can deviate substantially from the global mean. Here, we present maps of twenty-first century local RSL change estimates based on an ensemble of coupled climate model simulations for three emission scenarios. In the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), the same model simulations were used for their projections of global mean sea-level rise. The contribution of the small glaciers and ice caps to local RSL change is calculated with a glacier model, based on a volume-area approach. The contributions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are obtained from IPCC AR4 estimates. The RSL distribution resulting from the land ice mass changes is then calculated by solving the sea-level equation for a rotating, elastic Earth model. Next, we add the pattern of steric RSL changes obtained from the coupled climate models and a model estimate for the effect of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment. The resulting ensemble mean RSL pattern reveals that many regions will experience RSL changes that differ substantially from the global mean. For the A1B ensemble, local RSL change values range from -3.91 to 0.79 m, with a global mean of 0.47 m. Although the RSL amplitude differs, the spatial patterns are similar for all three emission scenarios. The spread in the projections is dominated by the distribution of the steric contribution, at least for the processes included in this study. Extreme ice loss scenarios may alter this picture. For individual sites, we find a standard deviation for the combined contributions of approximately 10 cm, regardless of emission scenario","regional sea level; sea-level projections; climate change","en","journal article","Springer","","","","","","","","Aerospace Engineering","","","","",""
"uuid:3211ce00-5007-4883-b302-6da3288543b0","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:3211ce00-5007-4883-b302-6da3288543b0","City Blueprints: 24 Indicators to Assess the Sustainability of the Urban Water Cycle","Van Leeuwen, C.J.; Frijns, J.; Van Wezel, A.; Van de Ven, F.H.M.","","2012","Climate change, population growth and increased consumption, coupled with urbanization, are all placing increased pressure on water management. This global challenge can often best be addressed at the local level, e.g. in cities by optimizing the role of civil society. Although there are approaches for assessing the sustainability of countries and cities, there is no dedicated framework for the assessment of the sustainability of urban water management. We have therefore compiled a comprehensive list of indicators (the city blueprint) for this. The city blueprint is proposed as a first step towards gaining a better understanding and addressing the challenges of integrated urban water management (IUWM). City blueprints will enable the IUWM of cities to be compared, and stimulate the exchange of success stories (good practices) between cities to address the enormous IUWM challenges which lie ahead. The city blueprint provides a quick scan and baseline assessment. It comprises elements from a variety of methodologies, such as water footprint, urban metabolism and ecosystem services. The indicators have been subdivided into eight broad categories, i.e. (1) water security following the water footprint approach developed by Hoekstra and Chapagain (2007), (2) water quality, which includes surface water and groundwater, (3) drinking water, (4) sanitation, (5) infrastructure, (6) climate robustness, (7) biodiversity and attractiveness and (8) governance. Experience using city blueprints for the cities of Rotterdam, Maastricht and Venlo (in the Netherlands) have been included as practical examples. It was concluded that simplicity (ease of calculation and data availability), transparency and ease of communication makes the blueprint a valuable tool for policy makers, decision makers and resource managers as a first step in the process of understanding, envisioning, developing and implementing measures to transform the water management of cities. The best results are obtained when all the stakeholders are involved and connected right from the start.","sustainability; water management; climate change; urban metabolism; water footprint; city blueprint","en","journal article","Springer-Verlag","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Water Management","","","",""
"uuid:e519a730-dddb-49f3-b80c-252cfddb5b5b","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:e519a730-dddb-49f3-b80c-252cfddb5b5b","The resilience approach to climate adaptation applied for flood risk","Gersonius, B.","Zevenbergen, C. (promotor); Ashley, R.M. (promotor)","2012","This dissertation presents a potential way forward for adaptation to climate change, termed the resilience approach. This approach takes a dynamic perspective on adaptive processes and the effects of these processes at/across different spatio-temporal scales. Experience is provided with four methods that can be used to apply the resilience approach: Adaptive Policy Making, Real-In-Options, Adaptation Tipping Points and - Adaptation Mainstreaming Opportunities. This dissertation discusses the concept, procedure and benefits/limitations of each method, examining its usefulness for informing investment decisions for flood risk management. It also gives specific recommendations on which method to use under what circumstances.","Adaptation; climate change; flood risk management; tipping points; real options; resilience; uncertainty","en","doctoral thesis","CRC Press/Balkema","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:72bbf670-2698-4b38-9824-594ba889dbab","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:72bbf670-2698-4b38-9824-594ba889dbab","“SimDelta”: Inquiry into an internet-based interactive model for water infrastructure development in The Netherlands","Rijcken, T.; Stijnen, J.; Slootjes, N.","","2012","The Dutch Delta Program is currently developing new government policies for flood protection and fresh water supply. Decision support instruments have to address the program’s technical and political complexity. The water system functions are highly interwoven and would benefit from an integrated approach on a national level, with decisions supported by a scientific Systems Analysis. Politically, there is a tendency towards broad participation and decentralization, and decision-making is typically supported by Conflict Resolution methods. To connect these two sides of the Delta Program’s task, an outline is presented of an internet community-based interactive instrument, preliminarily named SimDelta. On-line interactive maps and elements of serious gaming intuitively provide local Delta Program participants insight into the interaction between scenarios, problems, and solutions. SimDelta uses the internet to more frequently and efficiently present conceptual designs by architects and engineers to the Delta Program stakeholders, record their preferences, and “crowdsource” corrections, improvements and new ideas.","water infrastructure planning; flood risk management; adaptive water management; policy analysis; decision support; serious gaming; climate change; uncertainty; crowdsourcing","en","journal article","MDPI","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Water Management","","","",""
"uuid:0dbffe6a-9954-475d-8932-4b29d085f7e6","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:0dbffe6a-9954-475d-8932-4b29d085f7e6","Climate change impacts on the stability of small tidal inlets: A numerical modelling study using Realistic Analogue approach","Duong, T.; Ranasinghe, R.; Luijendijk, A.; Dastgheib, A.; Roelvink, D.","","2012","Tidal inlets are of great societal importance as they are often associated with ports and harbours, industry, tourism, recreation and prime waterfront real estate. Their behaviour is governed by the delicate balance of oceanic processes (tides, waves and mean sea level), and fluvial/estuarine processes (riverflow and heat fluxes), all of which can be significantly affected by climate change (CC) processes. This study investigates the potential range of CC impacts on the stability (closed/open state and locational stability) via the application of a sophisticated process based morphodynamic model (Delft3D) to strategically selected schematised inlet morphologies and forcing conditions.","climate change; tidal inlet; sea level rise; Delft3D","en","conference paper","PIANC","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:59341c96-b5d2-49bf-bdd7-18988e0bed29","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:59341c96-b5d2-49bf-bdd7-18988e0bed29","Modelling Morphological Response of Large Tidal Inlet Systems to Sea Level Rise","Dissanayake, P.K.","Roelvink, J.A. (promotor)","2011","This dissertation qualitatively investigates the morphodynamic response of a large inlet system to IPCC projected relative sea level rise (RSLR). Adopted numerical approach (Delft3D) used a highly schematised model domain analogous to the Ameland inlet in the Dutch Wadden Sea. Predicted inlet evolution indicated the typical channel/shoal pattern of the Ameland inlet and an agreement with the empirical-equilibrium relations. RSLR enhances the existing flood-dominance of the system leading to erosion on the ebb-tidal delta and accretion in the basin. Tidal flat evolution was quite stable applying low RSLR whereas the system indicated turning into a lagoon under high RSLR. Nourishment application hardly enabled the RSLR induced sediment demand of tidal flat evolution.","sea level rise; tidal inlet; tidal flat; inlet morphodynamics; climate change; Ameland inlet; Wadden Sea","en","doctoral thesis","CRC Press/Balkema","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:2dafac0b-894c-48df-b5f5-82f49bfe71db","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:2dafac0b-894c-48df-b5f5-82f49bfe71db","Building regulations and control in the face of climate change: Overview of the Portuguese situation","Costa Branco De Oliveira Pedro, J.A.; dos Santos, C.P.","","2011","This paper presents an analysis of the main initiatives implemented in Portugal aimed at improving the environmental performance of buildings. The study is focused on the building regulatory system. However, to describe its framework a wider context is analysed for the following reasons: a) strategies and plans on environment and energy establish main goals and actions to minimize the production of greenhouse gases and to prepare for the challenges of climate change; b) building regulations and their control system set and enforce mandatory minimum requirements for the building stock; c) voluntary certification and labelling set requirements above regulatory minimums and prove their enforcement; d) incentive programs and tax benefits give financial support to change the characteristics of the building stock; e) training and technical information increase the capacity of professionals, and finally, f) sensitization campaigns raise public awareness among consumers and contribute to changes in their behaviour. The results are that there is a coordinated set of initiatives to improve environmental performance of buildings. These initiatives: change the characteristics of the existing building stock, improve the performance level set for new buildings, and encourage more responsible environmental behaviours. Energy is the resource on which more initiatives were focused. Some initiatives set mandatory command and control regulations but most of them are incentives for voluntary improvements. Despite the many initiatives to improve environmental performance of buildings, their actual implementation and effectiveness must be assessed.","building regulations; Portugal; climate change","en","conference paper","Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors","","","","","","","","OTB Research Institute for the Built Environment","OTB Research","","","",""
"uuid:0f377d6c-714d-4afd-afde-8f24d9969f00","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:0f377d6c-714d-4afd-afde-8f24d9969f00","A risk-informed approach to coastal zone management","Jongejan, R.B.; Ranasinghe, R.W.M.R.J.B.; Vrijling, J.K.","","2011","Economic and population growth have led to an unprecedented increase in the value at risk in coastal zones over the last century. To avoid excessive future losses, particularly in the light of projected climate change impacts, coastal zone managers have various instruments at their disposal. These primarily concern land-use planning (establishing buffer zones) and engineering solutions (beach nourishment and coastal protection). In this paper, we focus on risk mitigation through the implementation of buffer zones (setback lines). Foregoing land-use opportunities in coastal regions and protecting coasts is costly, but so is damage caused by inundation and storm erosion. Defining appropriate setback lines for land-use planning purposes is a balancing act. It is however unclear what level of protection is facilitated by current approaches for defining setback lines, and whether this is, at least from an economic perspective, sufficient. In this paper, we present an economic model to determine which setback lines would be optimal from an economic perspective. The results provide a useful reference point in the political debate about the acceptability of risk in coastal zones. The main conclusions are (i) that it is useful to define setback lines on the basis of their exceedance probabilities, (ii) that the exceedance probability of an economically efficient setback line will typically be in the order of magnitude of 1/100 per year, (iii) that it is important to distinguish between situations in which morphological conditions are stationary and non-stationary, and (iv) that long-term uncertainties (e.g. due to climate change) influence the exceedance probability of efficient setback lines but only to a limited extent.","setback line; climate change; sea level rise; coastal protection; coastal risk; coastal hazard","en","conference paper","","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:cb9b1243-81a2-4be1-b52d-98b1f2ac0035","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:cb9b1243-81a2-4be1-b52d-98b1f2ac0035","The Problem of Many Hands: Climate Change as an Example","Van de Poel, I.; Fahlquist, J.N.; Doorn, N.; Zwart, S.; Royakkers, L.","","2011","In some situations in which undesirable collective effects occur, it is very hard, if not impossible, to hold any individual reasonably responsible. Such a situation may be referred to as the problem of many hands. In this paper we investigate how the problem of many hands can best be understood and why, and when, it exactly constitutes a problem. After analyzing climate change as an example, we propose to define the problem of many hands as the occurrence of a gap in the distribution of responsibility that may be considered morally problematic. Whether a gap is morally problematic, we suggest, depends on the reasons why responsibility is distributed. This, in turn, depends, at least in part, on the sense of responsibility employed, a main distinction being that between backward-looking and forward-looking responsibility.","responsibility; technology engineering; problem of many hands; collective responsibility; climate change","en","journal article","Springer","","","","","","","","Technology, Policy and Management","Values and Technology","","","",""
"uuid:744ffb92-7edf-4d36-840d-414d6d24c423","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:744ffb92-7edf-4d36-840d-414d6d24c423","Building regulations and control in the face of climate range","Visscher, H.J.; Meijer, F.M.; Itard, L.C.M.","","2010","Since a few years the attention for building regulatory systems and enforcement procedures is growing. Various developments in society, politics and the construction industry have influenced changes in the systems of building control in the last 20 years. The influence of climate change and the related demands on buildings will have a very strong impact of further transformations in this field. This was a reason to initiate a new CIB taskgroup (TG79) focussing on building regulations and control in de the face of climate change. In this paper we present some research findings about the relation between regulations and actual performances of buildings. These experiences make clear that the function of building control might change in the next years.","building regulations; building control; energy performance; energy saving; climate change","en","conference paper","RICS Londen","","","","","","","","OTB Research Institute","Housing Quality and Process Innovation","","","",""
"uuid:e6ac7327-91ac-44d1-b545-baa67edc2150","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:e6ac7327-91ac-44d1-b545-baa67edc2150","Energy regulations require strickter enforcement as response to climate change","Visscher, H.J.; Itard, L.C.M.; Guerra Santin, O.","","2010","Since a few years the attention for building regulatory systems and enforcement procedures is growing. Various developments in society, politics and the construction industry have influenced changes in the systems of building control in the last 20 years. The influence of climate change and the related demands on buildings will have a very strong impact of further transformations in this field. This was a reason to initiate a new CIB taskgroup (TG79) focussing on building regulations and control in de the face of climate change. In this paper we present some research findings about the relation between regulations and actual performances of buildings. These experiences make clear that the function of building control might change in the next years.","building regulations; building control; energy performance; energy saving; climate change","en","conference paper","Hong Kong Polytecnic University","","","","","","","","OTB Research Institute for the Built Environment","OTB Onderzoek","","","",""
"uuid:5394f2ff-a45f-48ad-a7b4-94916085ff8c","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:5394f2ff-a45f-48ad-a7b4-94916085ff8c","Living climate change: Design thinking and learning in complexity","Bakker, C.A.; Peck, D.P.; Soboll, P.; Tempelman, E.","","2010","As the world moves into an era of significant changes predicated by the challenge of sustainability, the future holds many questions, with serious consequences depending on the answers. Given the implications of these changes, the world’s design community needs to be constantly challenged to respond. To support conversations on what life will be like in 20 or 30 years and thus make the climate change debate more tangible, IDEO, a global design and innovation company, is hosting the Living Climate Change project and website. Moving the debate away from what we have to give up toward what we can create, the project is born from the conviction that design has a role to play in addressing the global issue of climate change. The scenarios IDEO developed (in movie clips) show how we may choose (or be forced) to abandon the old ways and change our behaviour. In partnership with IDEO, the Faculty of Industrial Design Engineering of the Delft University of Technology applied the Living Climate Change method in their education on sustainable design. Over a ten-week period, nine student teams were asked to develop non-linear future scenarios and present these in short movie clips. This paper presents the results of this activity, reflects on the methods used (expert involvement, storytelling, scenario building, movie making) and the learning that took place. The main conclusion is that the Living Climate Change activity turned out to be a valuable tool for the students, helping them come to terms with complex and interlinked topics and how these might change the world and the way we live.","design education; design thinking; sustainable design; climate change; constructivistic learning","en","conference paper","","","","","","","","","Industrial Design Engineering","","","","",""
"uuid:ad906f16-7304-4126-bb5b-c6a9cd1b0851","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:ad906f16-7304-4126-bb5b-c6a9cd1b0851","The future of hydrology: An evolving science for a changing world","Wagener, T.; Sivapalan, M.; Troch, P.A.; McGlynn, B.L.; Harman, C.J.; Gupta, H.V.; Kumar, P.; Rao, P.S.C.; Basu, N.B.; Wilson, J.S.","","2010","Human activities exert global-scale impacts on our environment with significant implications for freshwater-driven services and hazards for humans and nature. Our approach to the science of hydrology needs to significantly change so that we can understand and predict these implications. Such an adjustment is a necessary prerequisite for the development of sustainable water resource management strategies and to achieve long-term water security for people and the environment. Hydrology requires a paradigm shift in which predictions of system behavior that are beyond the range of previously observed variability or that result from significant alterations of physical (structural) system characteristics become the new norm. To achieve this shift, hydrologists must become both synthesists, observing and analyzing the system as a holistic entity, and analysts, understanding the functioning of individual system components, while operating firmly within a well-designed hypothesis testing framework. Cross-disciplinary integration must become a primary characteristic of hydrologic research, catalyzing new research and nurturing new educational models. The test of our quantitative understanding across atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, biosphere, and anthroposphere will necessarily lie in new approaches to benchmark our ability to predict the regional hydrologic and connected implications of environmental change. To address these challenges and to serve as a catalyst to bring about the necessary changes to hydrologic science, we call for a long-term initiative to address the regional implications of environmental change.","hydrology; climate change; synthesis","en","journal article","American Geophysical Union","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Water Management","","","",""
"uuid:af45d7b1-785f-41a4-a25c-47553b09aa1e","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:af45d7b1-785f-41a4-a25c-47553b09aa1e","The bike is back with a battery","Van der Hoeven, F.D.","","2009","The attention the electric car receives as a promising means of sustainable transportation seems at times to overshadow the rise of that other electric vehicle: the pedelec or electric bicycle. For those who don't know yet: a pedelec is a bicycle assisted by an electric motor. That motor is powered by a rechargeable (lithium-ion) battery. The motor is intended to assist pedaling, not to replace it. It is the newest evolution of the bike. Its numbers are growing fast. This paper assumes that the growing use of pedelecs requires a different approach from design research and policy making towards electric two wheelers. It will outline the major differences between regular bike use and pedelec use and addresses issues like city to city cycling, bicycle theft, parking and street charging.","climate change; sustainable mobility; pedelec; e-bike","en","conference paper","JAOCC","","","","","","","","Architecture","Urbanism","","","",""
"uuid:af79991f-31e7-47a4-a6ef-bfd54ca59c57","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:af79991f-31e7-47a4-a6ef-bfd54ca59c57","Working together with water: A living land builds for its future","Deltacommissie ","Veerman, C.P. (contributor); Stive, M.J. (contributor)","2008","The government asked the Delta Committee to come up with recommendations on how to protect the Dutch coast and the low-lying hinterland against the consequences of climate change. The issue is how the Netherlands can be made climate proof over the very long term: safe against flooding, while still remaining an attractive place to live, to reside and work, for recreation and investment. The task at hand, then, involved looking further than just flood protection. The Committee’s vision therefore embraces interactions with life and work, agriculture, nature, recreation, landscape, infrastructure and energy. The strategy for future centuries rests on two pillars: flood protection and sustainability. The report also emphasises the opportunities for Dutch society/the Netherlands as a whole. Water safety is at the centre of this report, and includes both flood protection and securing fresh water supplies. Achieving water safety prevents casualties and social disruption, while avoiding damage to our economy, landscape, nature, culture and reputation. In their report, the Delta Committee assumes that a safe Netherlands is a collective social good for which the government is and will remain responsible. The level of flood protection must be raised by at least a factor of 10 with respect to the present level. English translation of ""Samen Werken met water. Een land dat leeft, bouwt aan zijn toekomst"" http://repository.tudelft.nl/view/ir/uuid%3A6bb16d66-94c6-44eb-bb6b-e389283c1e82","Netherlands; flooding; flood risk; climate change","en","report","Deltacommissie","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:fb686b97-26b7-4951-8cc1-b9553e09e496","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:fb686b97-26b7-4951-8cc1-b9553e09e496","Effecten van klimaatverandering op de Waterkwaliteit in de Rijn en Maas","Van Vliet, M.; Zwolsman, G.; Joziasse, J.","","2008","De waterkwaliteit van rivieren is het meest kritisch tijdens hydrologische extremen en onder hoge watertemperaturen. Uit verkennende studies naar effecten van klimaatverandering op de waterkwaliteit in de Rijn (Zwolsman & Van Bokhoven, 2007) en Maas (Van Vliet & Zwolsman, 2007) is gebleken dat er in het algemeen een verslechtering van de chemische waterkwaliteit wordt waargenomen tijdens perioden van extreem lage en hoge rivierafvoeren en tijdens hittegolven (Zwolsman & Van Vliet, 2007). Met het oog op de toekomst kan uit de resultaten van bovengenoemde studies geconcludeerd worden dat een mogelijke toename in frequentie en intensiteit van droogten, hoogwaters en hittegolven ten gevolge van klimaatverandering kan leiden tot het frequenter optreden van een waterkwaliteitsverslechtering in de Rijn en de Maas. Hierdoor kunnen risico’s ontstaan voor de realisatie van de ecologische doelstellingen en gebruiksfuncties van het water (bijv. drinkwaterproductie en recreatie). Een samenvatting van de resultaten van voorgaande studies naar de effecten van hittegolven, droogten en hoogwaters op de waterkwaliteit in de Rijn en de Maas van Zwolsman, Van Vliet en Van Bokhoven is weergegeven in figuur 1. Het doel van deze studie is het vaststellen van grenswaarden in afvoer en watertemperatuur waarbij kritieke waterkwaliteitscondities (normoverschrijding) optreden. Hoewel tijdens hoogwatersituaties ook verslechtering in waterkwaliteit is waargenomen voor stoffen die zich sterk aan zwevend stof hechten (Van Bokhoven, 2007; Van Vliet & Zwolsman, 2007), ligt de nadruk in deze studie op het bepalen van grenswaarden voor waterkwaliteit van opgeloste stoffen tijdens droogtecondities (lage afvoeren).","waterquality; watertemperature; climate change; Rhine; Meuse; river; drinkingwater; CT04.20; Waterkwaliteit en calamiteiten; CT04.22.11; Extreme afvoeren en waterkwaliteit; Delft Cluster","nl","report","Delft Cluster","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"uuid:cc200a16-f3a2-4cac-8236-95aa7fbeac0e","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:cc200a16-f3a2-4cac-8236-95aa7fbeac0e","Integrated Urban Wastewater System Data Network - Data network system: Diagnostic Report Cali, Colombia","Unesco-IHE ","","2008","The pressure on the Urban Wastewater Systems (UWwS) increases as urbanization continues relentlessly and climate change appears to lead to more extreme rainfall events. These pressures have a negative effect on the efficiency of UWwS to reduce the urban pollution reaching water-receiving systems. One of the main causes of the problem is that the UWwSs have been traditionally designed for static/stationary loading but are operating under dynamic loading. Hence, only in the rare case of the design loading the system operates optimally. Thus, there is a lack of control in all other operational situations. The built-in capacity of the system is not used, or it is used in a way that the objectives cannot be met. In the first situation, invested capital is not productive; in the second situation, damage occurs: receiving waters are polluted or the city is flooded. Thus, the urban pollution managers are being forced to optimize the control of UWwS in order to deal with extreme variations in terms of flow and water quality and new criteria for pollution control performance. The same situation appears in the city of Cali, Colombia. EMCALI suspends the intake of raw water, due to the contamination of the water supply sources by wastewater discharges upstream form intake water, especially from South Channel and other discharges. Consequently, the drinking water plants present higher operation and treatment requirements and as a consequence an increment in the treatment costs. One of the main causes of the deficient control of the UWwS is the lack of data in each subsystem and the lack of coordination within institutions to share the information and take decisions based on it. This document presents a diagnostic report for urban wastewater monitoring systems of Cali. It includes an inventory of their components: Drainage Network, Cañaveralejo wastewater treatment plant and water receiving system (Cauca River) and identify the current status of the monitoring system. The main findings are that in the Cauca river there is a network of stations for water levels and water quality parameters but the information is not share successfully within the institutions IDEAM, CVC, DAGMA, EMCALI and hardly is used for system control purposes. The information from the sewer system is scarce and mainly at the entrance of the WwTP or in the pumping stations. The majority of information is collected in the Canaveralejo WwTP.","urban wastewater systems; water-receiving systems; climate change; Delft Cluster; CT06.24.11","en","report","Delft Cluser","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"uuid:58a20cfa-ebe4-46b9-9df6-4872bde33dd7","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:58a20cfa-ebe4-46b9-9df6-4872bde33dd7","Sea level rise of the Netherlands","Van Baars, S.","","2007","Analysis of observations of sea level rise in the Netherlands related to physical effects in world climate.","sea level rise; climate change","en","report","TU Delft, Sectie Waterbouw","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:ac9c5019-4a53-4c2d-ab3c-e5f294d717be","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:ac9c5019-4a53-4c2d-ab3c-e5f294d717be","Coastal defence solutions (approach of ComCoast)","Verhagen, H.J.; Visser, P.J.","","2007","Along the North Sea coast, water levels are rising and waves are intensifying due to climate change. The best scientific evidence suggests that both phenomena are likely to accelerate over the coming decades. In some North Sea coastal areas also land is sinking and tidal heights and rates of erosion are increasing. This means that the risk of flooding is increasing while more people are living, working and spending their leisure time within the coastal flood plain. With the pressure to build more housing, planners are considering options for development in coastal areas. Flood risk, the environment and a dynamic coastline have to be balanced with this pressure for development. ComCoast is looking at how we use the coastal flood plain today and is seeking multifunctional solutions for its sustainable use in the future. The ComCoast concept is to create a more gradual transition from sea to land, instead of a traditional single line of water defence. The project is developing innovative flood risk management strategies to include wider social and environmental functions such as recreation, fishing, tourism and habitat creation. This approach aims at to highlight possibilities for developing the coastal area with respect to spatial planning, to benefit local and wider communities as well as maintaining the environment.","climate change; coastal protection","en","conference paper","IOER, Dresden, Germany","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:22600f82-6b18-423a-87c2-2cc0f802aef5","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:22600f82-6b18-423a-87c2-2cc0f802aef5","Impacts of climate change on the principles of dike design","Verhagen, H.J.","","2007","Dike design is a very traditional craft. Since many generations dikes have been constructed in our part of Europe. After each disaster the dike was rebuilt, and improved. The improvement was always based on the experiences of the previous flood. For example, for many years the design height of a dike was determined as the height of the highest observed flood, plus a certain margin (usually a value in the order of 1 m). Of course, experience had shown that we also had to add some extra freeboard to take care of the wave run-up.","climate change; dikes; revetments","en","conference paper","Elastogran, Lemförde (BASF)","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:2681bd2e-424e-43cd-b711-50673b594f79","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:2681bd2e-424e-43cd-b711-50673b594f79","Climate change - clouds remain the misty factor","Muller, M.","Jonker, H. (contributor); Russchenberg, H. (contributor)","2007","Clouds are the great unknown quantity in predictions about climate change. For aeons they have been drifting quietly across the sky, but scientists still dont know exactly how they are formed and why they eventually come down again as rain. High time to take a closer look at clouds, say researchers at Delft University of Technology. Politicians worry mostly about greenhouse gases","climate change; clouds","en","journal article","Delft University of Technology","","","","","","","","Applied Sciences","","","","",""
"uuid:3d4b2a74-696d-4d18-88aa-2141141ca194","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:3d4b2a74-696d-4d18-88aa-2141141ca194","Effects of droughts and floods on the water quality and drinking water function of the river Meuse","Van Vliet, M.T.H.","","2006","","droughts; floods; water quality; drinking water; Meuse; metalloids; heavy metals; hydrocarbons; nutrients; pesticides; micro pollutants; climate change; CT04.20; Waterkwaliteit en Calamiteiten; CT04.22.11; Extreme afvoeren en waterkwaliteit; Delft Cluster","en","report","Delft Cluster","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"uuid:d54ff34e-f589-4d6a-8227-11a67ad38261","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d54ff34e-f589-4d6a-8227-11a67ad38261","The impact of climate change on the water quality of the Rhine river","Van Bokhoven, A.J.","","2006","In this research the effect of hydrological extremes on water quality are studied for the Rhine River, in order to assess potential water quality effects of climate change. The water quality of the Rhine was studied for the periods 1975-1977 and 1987-2005. During these periods eight hydrological extremes occured, five of which being classified as floods and three as periods of drought. The water quality during these hydrological extremes has been compared with the water quality in reference periods before and after the events. In total, fourty-one water quality parameters have been investigated, comprising general variables (e.g. temperature, suspended matter, dissolved oxygen), major ions, nutrients, heavy metals and metalloids, PAH's, pesticides and other organic mirco pollutants.","Rhine; climate change; water quality; floods; pesticides; metalloids; micro pollutants; CT04.20; Waterkwaliteit en Calamiteiten; CT04.22.11; Extreme afvoeren en waterkwaliteit; Delft Cluster","en","report","Delft Cluster","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"uuid:d677bb4a-87de-41f6-9778-aade5b99638e","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d677bb4a-87de-41f6-9778-aade5b99638e","Climate change impact on the deltas of Ebro, Po and Rhone: Conceptual models for coastal fringes’ response","Capobianco, M.; Stive, M.J.F.","","1996","All the Mediterranean Dehas are submitted to a physical regression of their coastal fringes and dominated by the wave action because of the decreased water and sediment discharges, if compared to previous stages of their histories. The decrease of the discharges is a consequence of water and solid retention and deviation in the continental watershed and of the relative sea level rise, caused (mainly) by the land subsidence in the deltas and (to an extent that is difficuh to quantify with the present knowledge) by the eustatic sea level rise enhanced by the global climatic change. This paper aims to summarize the work undertaken in the MEDDELT Project regarding the characterisation of the dynamical morphological processes of the coastal fringes of the deltas of Ebro, Po and Rhone and in particular highlight the conceptual developments achieved regarding their integrated modelling. We define the coastal fringes to be those regions of the deltaic areas where there is typically a direct influence of sea dynamics on the evolution of the morphological characteristics on a time scale of decades. In practice, in both the deltas of Po and Rhone such areas may be delimited by sea dikes. This assumption rises the requirement to consider not just the direct natural mechanisms of influence but also the direct human induced ones, particularly in the long term evolution of these fringes. We start by discussing the relation between sea-level rise and coastal erosion and the ""pros and cons"" of applying the classical Bruun approach. We briefly describe the problem of definition of scales, the computation of budget and the physiographic unh approach with reference to climatic change related phenomena impacting on the fringes. We then focus on the modelling of the formation and reduction processes and the application of the physiographic unit approach. We conclude by introducing the topic of application of the models in an integrated framework as decision support tools.","delta; climate change","en","conference paper","Meddelt","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:baee2b79-35ae-49b0-a0e9-69972f8f534d","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:baee2b79-35ae-49b0-a0e9-69972f8f534d","Impact of climatic change on the Po Delta: Deltaic fringe modelling","Capobianco, M.; Stive, M.J.F.; Ruol, P.","","1996","With the present paper we aim at summarizing the work undertaken in the MEDDELT Project on the characterisation of the dynamical processes of the Po Delta Fringe and particulalry highlight the conceptual developments achieved about the integrated modelling. We assume to be in a region of the deltaic area where there is tipically a direct influence of sea dynamics on the evolution of the morphological characters on a time scale of decades. In practice in the Po Delta such area is delimited by sea dikes. This assumption rises the requirement to consider not just the direct natural mechanisms of influence but also the direct human induced ones particularly in the long term evolution of the Po Delta fringe. We briefly describe the problem of definition of scales, the computation of budget and the physiographic unit approach with reference to climatic change related phenomena impacting on the Po Delta fringe. As a first approach we go deeper into the application of the classical Bruun approach in the evaluation of the effects of relative sea level rise in the coastal area. We then focus on the modelling of the formation and reduction processes and on the application of the physiographic unit approach. We conclude by discussing the topic of predictability and application of the models in an integrated framework as decision support tools.","Po delta; Delta; climate change","en","conference paper","Meddelt","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:e20c85f6-f1f1-4107-9397-e9227f88388b","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:e20c85f6-f1f1-4107-9397-e9227f88388b","Long term evolution of coastal morphology and global change","Capobianco, M.; De Vriend, H.J.; Nicholls, R.J.; Stive, M.J.F.","","1993","Long-term prediction of sediment transport and of morphological behaviour in the coastal zone, in response to human interference or to change in environmental conditions (collectively global change) is an increasingly important issue in coastal zone management, especially in relation to the needs for environmentally compatible development. Having in mind those aspects of the response of the coastal system related to long term dynamics of coastal morphology, the paper briefly describes possible approaches to environmental modelling, particularly the modelling of coasts in a typical context of poor experimental information and process knowledge. These approaches will be of help in the impact and vulnerability assessment required for coastal zone management. Reference will mainly be made to long term modelling activities currently performed in the context of the MAST (Marine Science and Technology Program) morphodynamic project on coastal morphology and to possible approaches to ""qualitative"" modelling which may be used to define tendencies of evolution. lt is argued that significant progress in long-term modelling can be made by adopting an appropriate conceptual framework, particularly a top-down approach. This involves formalizing knowledge and experience and integrating data and available models.","climate change; coastal morphology","en","conference paper","","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""