Systematic Transformation Error in the Depth-Average Undrained Shear Strength

In this paper we show how to calibrate a site-specific transformation model to measure the undrained shear strength from CPTs. This practically unbiased transformation model can then be used to make a better estimation of the spatial average parameter, such as the depth-average of a soil layer in a homogenous deposit, using less costly indirect...

Progression rate of backward erosion piping in laboratory experiments and reliability analysis

Backward erosion piping is an important failure mode of dikes and dams. The time required for the backward erosion process to result in dike failure is expected to be an important factor in the safety of dikes. This holds especially in coastal and estuarine areas which are dominated by storm surge, and pipes may not fully develop during a storm....

Bayesian Inference of Piping Model Uncertainties Based on Field Observations

This paper presents a Bayesian model to determine the model uncertainty of a critical horizontal gradient model for piping for dikes, such a Lane and Bligh. A Bayesian model is needed for two reasons. First, there is a large overlap in cases that failed and survived. Second, the evidence of the failed cases is limited .The model consists of a...

Influence of Monitoring on Investment Planning of Flood Defence Systems

Many flood defences in the Netherlands will have to be reinforced in the coming decades. Many dikes do not fulfill the safety standard due to geotechnical failure modes, largely due to epistemic, reducible uncertainties. . The Value of Information is a measure to indicate beforehand whether an investment towards reducing epistemic uncertainty is...

Integral Failure Analysis of Pipelines in Flood Defenses

The presence of pipelines in flood defenses presents a challenge for assessing the probability of flooding. To prevent costly structural measures compensating for the possible negative effects of pipeline failure, we developed a framework for an integral failure analysis of pipeline and dike failure. The assessment framework is based on an event...

Influence of Residual Dyke Strength on Dyke Reliability Using the Random Material Point Method

The material point method (MPM) is used to model both rotational and horizontal sliding failure mechanisms of dykes under external (water) loading. To model the different failure mechanisms, an external hydrostatic water pressure has been applied on the canal side of the dyke by applying a newly developed boundary condition. The boundary...

Uncertainty Tracking and Geotechnical Reliability Updating Using Bayesian Networks

Bayesian networks are proposed as a tool to integrate reliability and influential variables relating to the slope stability of an idealized embankment. The site investigation (extent) and slope geometry, as well as the material properties and their spatial variability, are considered within a Bayesian network. The random finite element method ...

Modified Semi-Analytical Method for 3D Slope Reliability

An improved method for the reliability analysis of 3D slopes has been proposed based on the semi-analytical method of Vanmarcke (1977). Comparing the predicted responses of an idealised 3D slope obtained by the more general, albeit computationally intensive, random finite element method (RFEM), and the original semi-analytical method showed that...

Observations and Considerations Regarding Estimating Horizontal Scales of Fluctuation around Linear Infrastructure

Measuring soil variability has many challenges. One of the challenges is soil deformation, which can change the spatial correlation structure arising from the original geological processes. In particular, this is important in the assessment of existing structures. In this paper, the effect of existing structures on the horizontal spatial...