Potential sources of predictive skill of seasonal precipitation forecasts for Suriname: A study on the dynamics of seasonal precipitation in Suriname with the help of moisture tracking and Sea Surface Temperature correlations

This study investigates the dynamics of seasonal precipitation in Suriname with the help of moisture tracking and Sea Surface Temperature correlations. Prolonged drought periods, heavy precipitation events and accompanying flash floods and landslides are expected to increase in Suriname in the coming years. Reliable seasonal precipitation...

Impact of climate change on precipitation in Suriname

Suriname is highly vulnerable to hazards that are climate change related, such as droughts and floods. Knowledge about future precipitation in Suriname is needed for the population of Suriname in order to adapt to climate change effects. By analysing 32 CMIP6 models, this study investigates the impact of climate change on precipitation in...

Rising lakes in the Kenyan Rift Valley. Lake Nakuru flooding: An analysis of the impact of spatial-temporal variability of precipitation and changes in moisture source and climate drivers

Hydrological and meteorological research are of great value to comprehend the complex Eastern Africa system, and more specifically the Kenyan Rift Valley, as impacts of climate change and indisputable changes in the hydrology of the lakes have become more apparent in recent decades. Lakes in the Kenyan Rift Valley region, spanning from the south...

Evaluation and Improvement of a Stochastic Parametric Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Model - for Flood Impact Assessment

BaCla is a new stochastic parametric precipitation model to estimate rainfall associated with Tropical cyclones (TCs) in a computationally efficient way. It is validated for a number of calibration cases along with the current benchmark IPET deterministic method. The results of these models are compared with the observed StageIV-based rainfall....

Climate Adaptation under Uncertainty: A novel decision scaling approach to assess climate vulnerability in the Waterberg Biosphere Reserve, South Africa

Managing water resources for the future is challenging, given the wide range of climatic and hydrological uncertainty. To support decision makers in formulating robust adaptation plans and finding their way through the broad range of available climate data and models, decision scaling was introduced: an approach for bottom-up climate...

Climate-analogy mapping as a tool to develop a temporally-adaptive hydrological model of the Meuse basin for more reliable predictions under change

The future hydrological response of a river system is often predicted using hydrological models that are calibrated on past observations. By using static model parameters it is assumed that hydrological systems do not change in time. For long-term predictions, this is in clear contrast with the notion that vegetation actively adapts its root...

Lessons learned from hydrological models for the improvement of climate model

Hydrological models are designed to represent the interactions between the<br/>physical process and the water storage in short-term or long-term forecasting. The hydrological models in climate models (also know as Land Surface Models) aim to represent hydrological processes and interactions at a global scale. In this research, one Land Surface...

Moisture transportation for extreme precipitation: On how dynamics enhances precipitation intensification in a warmer climate in the Netherlands

It is well understood that precipitation extremes will increase in a warming climate. On (sub-)hourly timescales, the apparent scaling of precipitation extremes is stronger than expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Here, we focus on a common hypothesis which states that feedbacks from the local dynamics of clouds are responsible.<br/>...

Understanding the relationship between extreme rainfall scaling and dew point temperature

Due to global warming, temperatures are expected to rise and, with it, the increase in moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere. Changes in precipitation extremes with temperature are governed by the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship (CC), which states that precipitation increases 7% per degree of warming. While global models and observations...