Forecasting the impacts of silver and bighead carp on the Lake Erie food web

Nonindigenous bigheaded carps (Bighead Carp Hypophthalmichthys nobilis and Silver Carp H. molitrix; hereafter, “Asian carps” [AC]) threaten to invade and disrupt food webs and fisheries in the Laurentian Great Lakes through their high consumption of plankton. To quantify the potential effects of AC on the food web in Lake Erie, we developed an...

Out-of-sample validation for structured expert judgment of Asian carp establishment in Lake Erie

Structured expert judgment (SEJ) is used to quantify the uncertainty of nonindigenous fish (bighead carp [Hypophthalmichthys nobilis] and silver carp [H. molitrix]) establishment in Lake Erie. The classical model for structured expert judgment model is applied. Forming a weighted combination (called a decision maker) of experts' distributions,...

Use of Structured Expert Judgment to Forecast Invasions by Bighead and Silver Carp in Lake Erie

Identifying which nonindigenous species will become invasive and forecasting the damage they will cause is difficult and presents a significant problem for natural resource management. Often, the data or resources necessary for ecological risk assessment are incomplete or absent, leaving environmental decision makers ill equipped to effectively...

An efficient pricing algorithm for swing options based on Fourier cosine expansions

Swing options give contract holders the right to modify amounts of future delivery of certain commodities, such as electricity or gas. We assume that these options can be exercised at any time before the end of the contract, and more than once. However, a recovery time between any two consecutive exercise dates is incorporated as a constraint to...

Efficient Pricing of European-Style Asian Options under Exponential Lévy Processes Based on Fourier Cosine Expansions

We propose an efficient pricing method for arithmetic and geometric Asian options under exponential Lévy processes based on Fourier cosine expansions and Clenshaw–Curtis quadrature. The pricing method is developed for both European style and American-style Asian options and for discretely and continuously monitored versions. In the present paper...

Efficient Pricing of Early: Exercise and Exotic Options Based on Fourier Cosine Expansions

In the financial world, two tasks are of prime importance: model calibration and portfolio hedging. For both tasks, efficient option pricing is necessary, particularly for the calibration where many options with different strike prices and different maturities need to be priced at the same time. Therefore, a fast yet accurate pricing method is a...