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The dichotomous Markov process with nonparametric test application; a decision support method in long-term river behavioural analysis: The Zayandeh Rud River; a case study from central Iran

Fasihi Harandi, M. (author), Yarahmadian, S. (author), Sepehrifar, M. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author)

We use the Dichotomous Markov Noise (DMN) model with constant transition rates to describe the dynamics of fluctuations in the water level as a stochastic process, which is imposed on river discharge changes. By applying this model, two different regimes are determined for the long-term behaviour of the river. Based on these regimes, we define...

journal article 2014

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An Idealized Meteorological-Hydrodynamic Model for Exploring Extreme Storm Surge Statistics in the North Sea

Van Ledden, M. (author), Van den Berg, N.J.F. (author), De Jong, M.S. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author), Den Heijer, C. (author), Vrijling, J.K. (author), Jonkman, S.N. (author), Roos, P.C. (author), Hulscher, S.J.M.H. (author), Lansen, A.J. (author)

This paper explores an alternative method to determine extreme surge levels at the Dutch Coast. For this exploration, specific focus is on the extreme water level at Hoek van Holland, The Netherlands. The alternative method has been based on a joint probability model of the storm characteristics at the North Sea. The intent of this method is to...

conference paper 2014

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A joint probability approach using a 1-D hydrodynamic model for estimating high water level frequencies in the Lower Rhine Delta

Zhong, H. (author), Van Overloop, P.J. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author)

The Lower Rhine Delta, a transitional area between the River Rhine and Meuse and the North Sea, is at risk of flooding induced by infrequent events of a storm surge or upstream flooding, or by more infrequent events of a combination of both. A joint probability analysis of the astronomical tide, the wind induced storm surge, the Rhine flow and...

journal article 2013

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The Effect of Four New Floodgates on the Flood Frequency in the Dutch Lower Rhine Delta

Zhong, H. (author), Van Overloop, P.J.A.T.M. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author), Tian, X. (author)

The Dutch Lower Rhine Delta, a transitional area between the Rivers Rhine, Meuse and the North Sea, is at risk of flooding induced by infrequent events of storm surges or fluvial floods, or the combination of both. To protect the delta from storm surges, it can be closed off from the sea by large dams and controllable storm surge barriers. Also,...

conference paper 2013

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Coping with the uncertainties in the climate change adaptation of river dikes using risk-aversion economic optimization

Wang, L. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author), Vrijling, J.K. (author), Ranasinghe, R.W.M.R.J.B. (author), Maskey, S. (author)

To guarantee a safe flood defence in a changing environment, the adaptation to climate change needs to be considered in the design of river dikes. However, the large uncertainty in the projections of future climate leads to varied estimations of future flood probability. How to cope with the uncertainties in future flood probability under...

conference paper 2013

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Hurricane risk assessment in a long temporal scale

Nguyen, B.M. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author)

conference paper 2013

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Mean normalized force computation for different types of obstacles due to dam break using statistical techniques

Duricic, J. (author), Erdik, T. (author), Pektas, A.O. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author)

The dam-break induced loads and their effects on buildings are of vital importance for assessing the vulnerability of buildings in flood-prone areas. A comprehensive methodology, for risk assessment of buildings subject to flooding, is nevertheless still missing. This research aims to take a step forward by following previous research. To this...

journal article 2013

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Alternatieve benadering voor maatgevende waterstanden Nederlandse kust

Van Ledden, M. (author), De Jong, M. (author), Den Heijer, C. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author)

Het stormseizoen is weer begonnen in Nederland. De duinen en dijken langs de Nederlandse kust kunnen in deze periode zwaar belast worden door een combinatie van hoge stormvloed en zware golven. Op dit moment worden deze waterkeringen getoetst en ontworpen met waterstandsgegevens die vooral gebaseerd zijn op statistische extrapolatie van...

journal article 2012

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Flood damage estimation for downtown Shanghai sensitivity analysis

Ke, Q. (author), Jonkman, S.N. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author), Rijcken, T. (author)

Flood damage estimation is essential to flood risk analysis. Flood hazards, values of elements at risk and vulnerability of elements determine flood damage. However, these determinants entail uncertainties. In this study, water depth, values of elements at risk and damage function are selected as three key parameters. The local sensitivity...

conference paper 2012

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Risk estimate in storm-prone areas

Nguyen, B.M. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author)

conference paper 2012

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Multireservoir operations for flood management in Tanshui River basin, Taiwan

Mei, X. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author), Sloff, C.J. (author), Prinsen, G. (author), Vrijling, J.K. (author)

conference paper 2012

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Investigation of long-term hurricane activity

Nguyen, B.M. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author)

This paper presents a new approach of applying numerical methods to model storm processes. A storm empirical track technique is utilized to simulate the full tracks of hurricanes, starting with their initial points over the sea and ending with their landfall locations or final dissipations. The theoretical framework was first described in the...

conference paper 2012

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Risk based maintenance of a cross-country petroleum pipeline system

Dawotola, A.W. (author), Trafalis, T.B. (author), Mustaffa, Z. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author), Vrijling, J.K. (author)

This paper proposes a data-driven approach in determining an optimal inspection interval for a petroleum pipeline system. The approach accounts for the determination of both the probability of failure and its associated consequences. The probability of failure is estimated by fitting the historical data of failure of the pipeline into either a...

journal article 2012

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Bayesian logistic regression analysis

Van Erp, H.R.N. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author)

In this paper we present a Bayesian logistic regression analysis. It is found that if one wishes to derive the posterior distribution of the probability of some event, then, together with the traditional Bayes Theorem and the integrating out of nuissance parameters, the Jacobian transformation is an essential added ingredient. The application of...

conference paper 2012

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Impact assessment of extreme storm events using a Bayesian network

Den Heijer, C. (author), Knipping, D.T.J.A. (author), Plant, N.G. (author), Van Thiel de Vries, J.S.M. (author), Baart, F. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author)

This paper describes an investigation on the usefulness of Bayesian Networks in the safety assessment of dune coasts. A network has been created that predicts the erosion volume based on hydraulic boundary conditions and a number of cross-shore profile indicators. Field measurement data along a large part of the Dutch coast has been used to...

conference paper 2012

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Influence of a storm surge barrier’s operation on the flood frequency in the Rhine Delta area

Zhong, H. (author), Van Overloop, P.J. (author), Van Gelder, P. (author), Rijcken, T. (author)

The Rhine River Delta is crucial to the Dutch economy. The Maeslant barrier was built in 1997 to protect the Rhine estuary, with the city and port of Rotterdam, from storm surges. This research takes a simple approach to quantify the influence of the Maeslant storm surge barrier on design water levels behind the barrier. The dikes in the area...

journal article 2012

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A decision-support model for time-dependent investments in flood defences

Tsimopoulou, V. (author), Kanning, W. (author), Stijnen, J.W. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author)

This poster presents the framework of a decision support model for time-dependent investments in structural flood risk mitigation measures.

journal article 2011

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Constructing Cartesian Splines

Van Erp, H.R.N. (author), Linger, R.O. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author)

We introduce here Cartesian splines or, for short, C-splines. C-splines are piecewise polynomials which are defined on adjacent Cartesian coordinate systems and are Cr continuous throughout. The Cr continuity is enforced by constraining the coefficients of the polynomial to lie in the null-space of some smoothness matrix H . The matrix-product...

journal article 2011

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Decision Analysis Framework for Risk Management of Crude Oil Pipeline System

Dawotola, A.W. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author), Vrijling, J.K. (author)

A model is constructed for risk management of crude pipeline subject to rupture on the basis of a methodology that incorporates structured expert judgment and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The risk model calculates frequency of failure and their probable consequences for different segments of crude pipeline, considering various failure...

journal article 2011

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Optimal inspection planning with time-dependent reliability analysis, application to rubble-mound breakwaters

Nguyen, D.V. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author), Verhagen, H.J. (author), Vrijling, J.K. (author)

In order to avoid failure in its lifetime, a breakwater system has to be inspected and, if necessary, has to be repaired. In this paper, a comprehensive maintenance strategy with optimal inspection planning is formulated. Rational maintenance decision-making approaches are discussed. The proposed maintenance strategy combines time-dependent and...

conference paper 2010