Exploring carbon futures in the EU power sector: Using Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis to explore policy regimes under deep uncertainty

The European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) in combination with other renewable electricity (RES-E) support schemes such as (premium) feed-in tariffs or tradable green certificates do not guarantee a carbon neutral power sector in 2050. This paper shows that many plausible futures of high carbon emissions exist when no substantial efficiency...

Stress-testing banks under deep uncertainty

Years of turmoil in the banking sector have revealed the need to assess bank performance under deep uncertainty and identify vulnerabilities to different types of risks. Banks are not the safe houses of old. Today, banks are highly uncertain dynamically complex systems that are permanently at risk due to internal and external stresses and...

Analysing the uncertain future of copper with three exploratory system dynamics models

High copper prices, the prospect of a transition to a more sustainable energy mix and increasing copper demands from emerging economies have not led to an in-creased attention to the base metal copper in mineral scarcity discussions. The copper system is well documented, but especially regarding the demand of copper many uncertainties exist. In...

Societal Aging in the Netherlands: Exploratory System Dynamics Modeling and Analysis

Mismanagement of societal aging is an important threat to health care systems, social security systems, and the economy of many nations. a System Dynamics simulation model related to societal aging in the Netherlands and its implications for the Dutch welfare system is used here as a scenario generator for Exploratory System Dynamics Modeling...

Prostitution and Human Trafficking: A model-based exploration and policy analysis

The meeting of the oldest profession with modern slavery is the topic of this paper. After a brief introduction to prostitution and prostitution-related human trafficking, this paper focuses on the Dutch policy debate. A System Dynamics simulation model related to the Dutch situation developed to explore and provide insights related to the...

Developing Scenarios for Uncertain Complex Risks: Using SD to Explore Futures of Lyme Disease in the Netherlands

Lyme disease due to infection with Lyme borreliosis poses an uncertain dynamic threat to the Dutch and their public health system. This risk was used to develop and illustrate two variants of a National Risk Assessment approaches for slumbering/latent risks. This paper explains and illustrates the System Dynamics-based variant using the societal...

A bright future for system dynamics: From art to computational science and beyond

This paper presents a bright future for quantitative System Dynamics Modeling. This future relates to all major issues and grand challenges which all happen to be dynamically complex and deeply uncertain. Combining System Dynamics Modeling and Exploratory Modeling and Analysis allows one to generate, explore and deeply analyze tens of thousands...

To Radicalize or to Deradicalize? Is that the Question?

Radicalization and deradicalization are deeply uncertain dynamic processes. Exploring and analyzing many plausible futures and assessing the robustness of policies to reinforce desirable evolutions seem more useful for such processes than trying to predict their precise development over time and optimize the associated policy response. This...

Energy Transitions towards Sustainability I: A Staged Exploration of Complexity and Deep Uncertainty

This paper illustrates the use of Exploratory System Dynamics Modeling and Analysis – a multi-method combining System Dynamics and Exploratory Modeling and Analysis to explore and analyze uncertain dynamic issues and test deep policy robustness. This paper gives an overview of the current state of this multi-method by means of an illustration....

Exploring Demographic Shifts: Aging and Migration Exploratory Group Model Specification & Simulation

Plausible dynamics of a major demographic shift –(societal) aging– is studied in this paper, both from a global perspective and from a national perspective. Several economic, political and social implications of aging and aging-related demographic shifts are explored using System Dynamics models as scenario generators for Exploratory System...

Heart Meets Mind: Smart Transition Management to Smarten Energy Systems in a Deeply Uncertain World

Enormous future investments are needed to replace old energy systems/technologies, and prepare them for future needs. Moreover, smarter technologies/systems are needed. And in this ever more complex, interconnected, and uncertain world, smarter policymaking in the energy field is certainly needed too. After all, current energy policymaking still...

Using Small Models for Big Issues: Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis for Insightful Crisis Management

The main goal of this paper is to explain and illustrate different exploratory uses of small System Dynamics models for analysis and decision support in case of dynamically complex issues that are deeply uncertain. The applied focuss of the paper is the field of inter/national safety and security. The need for exploratory approaches is first of...

The Concerted Run on the DSB Bank: An Exploratory System Dynamics Approach

In this paper, an Exploratory System Dynamics model of a concerted run is first of all presented. The immediate cause for modelling a concerted bank run was the mediatised call for a run on the DSB bank. This Exploratory System Dynamics model was developed the morning of the call for the bank run, before the start of the ensuing bank crisis, in...