Further development of a method to calculate frequencies of loss of control including their uncertainty

An integrated model for risk in a real-time environment for the hydrocarbon industry based on the CATS model for commercial aviation safety has been further developed. The approach described in earlier papers required Bayesian Belief Nets (BBN) to be developed for each process unit separately. A much more efficient method for developing the...

Safety management within Task Force Uruzgan: A report of working with Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

In this paper we present a conceptualization of safety management that is based on the cybernetic concepts of “controllability” and “control capacity”. In particular, we explore what this conceptualization means for safety management of the Dutch Army’s UAV unit that was part of Task Force Uruzgan (TFU) in the years 2006–2007 and 2008–2009. In...

Left-hand side BBN model for process safety

This paper describes the blueprint of a model for calculating the left-hand side of the bow-tie for chemical plants is described. The model is based on Non-Parametric Bayesian Belief Nets so that uncertainties are automatically included. Also, the procedure for constructing the elements for the model is described. The aim is to calculate LoC...

Modeling contractor and company employee behavior in high hazard operation

The recent blow-out and subsequent environmental disaster in the Gulf of Mexico have highlighted a number of serious problems in scientific thinking about safety. Risk models have generally concentrated on technical failures, which are easier to model and for which there are more concrete data. However, many primary cause of the disasters, such...

Better science does not make decisions easier

Forty years of development in the science and technology of estimating and quantifying risk, of understanding of human behaviour and human rationale has made decision makers more informed. We are in a much better position now, than forty years ago in estimating probabilities, consequences, and damages, and in estimating and dealing with the...

AIS data anlaysis for realistic ship traffic simulations model

AIS (Automatic Identification System) data provide valuable input data for the development of simulation models to prevent shipping accidents. This paper reports on the detailed analysis of AIS data for that purpose. This analysis is focused on restricted waterways to support inland waterway simulations, comparing the differences between a...

Participant observation in risk problems

Participant observation is a method to collect information through active participation in the social world that is under study, in this case two different risk-related working areas where confidentiality and secrecy are paramount. In reality there is a difference between what people do and say they do. With participant observation this...

Artificial Force Fields for Multi-agent Simulations of Maritime Traffic: A Case Study of Chinese Waterway

Collisions are an important factor in probabilistic risk modeling of waterway infrastructures. Especially in the design of bridges and terminals, the probability of ship collision is important. Researchers are looking for simulations that mimic ship behavior and estimate accident probabilities rather than using probabilistic accident models. AIS...

Artificial force fields for multi-agent simulations of maritime traffic and risk estimation

A probabilistic risk model is designed to estimate probabilities of collisions for shipping accidents in busy waterways. We propose a method based on multi-agent simulation that uses an artificial force field to model ship maneuvers. The artificial force field is calibrated by AIS data (Automatic Identification System). The artificial force...

Human factors in layers of defense in airport security

Airport security systems are built up out of layers of defence based on the security-in-depth model (Talbot & Jakeman, 2008). The Transport Safety Authority (TSA) in the United States defined a staggering 20 layers of defence to control security risks. This means that not only security personnel is responsible for security at the airport but...

Bankruptcy by catastrophes for major multi-nationals: Stock exchange sensitivity for three catastrophes

This paper investigates the effect of major catastrophes have on stock exchange values for the major multi-nationals. The paper demonstrates that the Sharpe analysis is more sensitive in identifying effects than just following the daily stock values for assessing market response. It was found that major multi-nationals are capable of absorbing...

Modelling human and organizational behaviour in a high-risk operation

A core part of the risk modelling program for the Oil and Gas industry being carried out at Delft University of Technology is the influence of humans, within an organisation, as well as the technical factors. Specific attention is given to the incentive structure of operators, staff and managers, which in previous models had only been indicated...

Modelling risk in high hazard operations: Integrating technical, organisational and cultural factors

Recent disasters in high hazard industries such as Oil and Gas Exploration (The Deepwater Horizon) and Petrochemical production (Texas City) have been found to have causes that range from direct technical failures through organizational shortcomings right up to weak regulation and inappropriate company cultures. Risk models have generally...

NL-Alert: Na welk alarmbericht komt u in actie? Resultaten van een webbased experiment waarin de bevolking helpt effectieve berichten voor burgeralarmering te ontwikkelen

Dit rapport presenteert de resultaten van een experiment waarin 1082 mensen hun waardering gaven over alarmberichten rond incidenten bij het transport met gevaarlijke stoffen, bij installaties met gevaarlijke stoffen, voor natuurbranden en voor stroomstoringen. Het doel was inzicht te krijgen in de waardering van de inhoud door de bevolking om...

Hoe hoorde u van de brand bij Chemie-Pack in Moerdijk?: Rapportage bevindingen vragenlijstonderzoek

Op woensdag 5 januari 2011 werden diverse communicatiemiddelen ingezet om de bevolking te alarmeren en informeren over de brand die was uitgebroken bij het bedrijf Chemie-Pack in Moerdijk. De waarschuwingen op 5 januari en de dag erna richtten zich op mogelijke directe gevaren als gevolg van inademing van de rook. Daarom werd advies afgegeven...

Evaluatie van de mogelijkheden van cell broadcast voor burgeralarmering. Ervaringen van praktijkproeven in Nederland gedurende de periode 2005-2007

In opdracht van het Expertise Centrum Risico- en Crisiscommunicatie, Ministerie van Binnenlandse Zaken en Koninkrijksrelaties