Hydrological model parameter dimensionality is a weak measure of prediction uncertainty (discussion paper)

This paper shows that instability of hydrological system representation in response to different pieces of information and associated prediction uncertainty is a function of model complexity. After demonstrating the connection between unstable model representation and model complexity, complexity is analyzed in a step by step manner. This is...

Endogenous technological and population change under increasing water scarcity

While the proposed model is a rather simple model of a coupled human–water system, it is shown to be capable of replicating patterns of technological, population, production and consumption per capita changes. The model demonstrates that technological change may indeed ameliorate the effects of increasing water scarcity, but typically it does so...

Hydrological model parameter dimensionality is a weak measure of prediction uncertainty (discussion paper)

This paper presents evidence that model prediction uncertainty does not necessarily rise with parameter dimensionality (the number of parameters). Here by prediction we mean future simulation of a variable of interest conditioned on certain future values of input variables. We utilize a relationship between prediction uncertainty, sample size...

Endogenous technological and population change under increasing water scarcity

The ancient civilization in the Indus Valley civilization dispersed under extreme dry conditions; there are indications that the same holds for many other ancient societies. Even contemporary societies, such as the one in Murrumbidgee river basin in Australia, have started to witness a decline in overall population under increasing water...

Endogenous change: On cooperation and water in ancient history

We propose and test the theory of endogenous change based on historical reconstructions of two ancient civilizations, Indus and Hohokam, in two water scarce basins, the Indus basin in the Indian subcontinent and the Lower Colorado basin in Southwestern United States. The endogenous institutional change sees changes in institutions as a sequence...