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Mouter, N. (author), Holleman, M. (author), Calvert, S.C. (author), Annema, J.A. (author)
An important limitation of Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the inherent uncertainty in estimations of future welfare effects. In this paper, we argue that consideration of the ‘price-quality’ dilemma and the ‘communication’ dilemma is useful to explain and improve the handling of uncertainty in CBA. The ‘price-quality’ dilemma refers to the trade...
journal article 2015
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Eker, S. (author), Djong, J. (author), Leston, D. (author)
Rabies is a viral fatal disease transmitted to humans mainly from dogs. Human deaths due to rabies have been increasing in recent years, especially in Africa and Asia where socioeconomic factors play an important role in the revival of the epidemic. In the current situation, it is unknown how the epidemic will evolve and which policies can...
conference paper 2014
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Eker, S. (author), Van Daalen, C. (author)
Bio-methane is a renewable gas option that can be injected to the natural gas grids to increase the sustainability of the energy system and to deal with natural gas supply problems. However, being based on several factors such as resource availability, competition between bio-methane and electricity sectors for biogas and biomass supply, demand,...
conference paper 2014
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Auping, W.L. (author), De Jong, S. (author), Pruyt, E. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
The US’ shale gas revolution, a spectacular increase in natural gas extraction from previously unconventional sources, has led to considerable lower gas prices in North America. This study focusses on consequences of the shale gas revolution on state stability of traditional oil and gas exporting countries in the vicinity of the EU. For this...
conference paper 2014
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Auping, W.L. (author)
The copper case is often used as an example in resource depletion studies. Despite these studies, several profound uncertainties remain in the system. One of these uncertainties is the distribution of copper grades in the lithosphere. The Skinner thesis promotes the idea that copper grades may be distributed with a bimodal distribution instead...
conference paper 2014
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Haasnoot, M. (author), Van Deursen, W.P.A. (author), Guillaume, J.H.A. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Van Beek, E. (author), Middelkoop, H. (author)
Exploring adaptation pathways is an emerging approach for supporting decision making under uncertain changing conditions. An adaptation pathway is a sequence of policy actions to reach specified objectives. To develop adaptation pathways, interactions between environment and policy response need to be analysed over time for an ensemble of...
journal article 2014
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Melese, Y.G. (author), Heijnen, P.W. (author), Stikkelman, R.M. (author)
Development of networked energy infrastructures (like gas pipe networks), generally requires a significant amount of capital investment under resources, market and institutional uncertainties. Several independent suppliers and consumers are to be connected into these networks. However, the actual commitment of these parties and the capacities...
journal article 2014
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Eker, S. (author), Van Daalen, C. (author)
Import dependency and the extent of renewable gas production are two outcomes of interest concerning the future of gas supply in the Netherlands. Due to the complexity of internal mechanisms and uncertainties associated with the natural gas production, the production of renewable gases, and the demand for gas, the future of these two outcomes of...
conference paper 2013
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Herder, P.M. (author), Pulles, K. (author)
conference paper 2013
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Haasnoot, M. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Walker, W.E. (author), Ter Maat, J. (author)
A new paradigm for planning under conditions of deep uncertainty has emerged in the literature. According to this paradigm, a planner should create a strategic vision of the future, commit to short-term actions, and establish a framework to guide future actions. A plan that embodies these ideas allows for its dynamic adaptation over time to meet...
journal article 2013
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Eker, S. (author), Van Daalen, C. (author)
Unconventional gas has raised debates all over the world following its considerable contribution to the natural gas production of some countries such as the US. The Netherlands, which is a prominent gas producer in the Western Europe, also considers unconventional resources as an alternative to conventional production, which is estimated to...
conference paper 2012
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author)
Sustainable water management in a changing environment full of uncertainty is a profound challenge. To deal with uncertainties, dynamic adaptive policies can be used. Such policies can change over time in response to how the future unfolds, to what we learn about the system, to changes in environment, and to changes in societal preferences. This...
conference paper 2012
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Haasnoot, M. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Walker, W.E. (author)
Water management in river deltas is increasingly being challenged by pressures from population growth, sea level rise, increasing variability in river runoffs, and potential climate change. Adaptation to such changes is not only determined by what is known or anticipated at present, but also by what will be experienced and learned as the future...
conference paper 2012
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Timmermans, J.S. (author)
In the Nature article ‘A safe operating space for humanity’, Rockström et al. (2009) introduce the concept of a safe operating space for humanity. A safe operating space is the space for human activities that will not push the planet out of the ‘Holocene state’ that has seen human civilizations arise, develop, and thrive. Rockström et al. have...
conference paper 2012
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Eker, S. (author), Van Daalen, C. (author)
The natural gas production in the Netherlands is estimated to decline significantly in the coming 25 years. This situation has led producers to consider alternatives such as unconventional gas resources which are successfully utilized in the US and debated all over the world. However, despite the substantial initial resource estimates,...
conference paper 2012
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Pruyt, E. (author), Segers, J. (author), Oruc, S. (author)
In this ever more complex, interconnected, and uncertain world, leadership is needed more than ever. But the literature and most leaders largely ignore dynamic complexity and deep uncertainty: only futures characterized by ever faster change, ever more (required) flexibility, and ever more scarcity (especially in terms of highly qualified human...
conference paper 2011
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Bijlsma, R.M. (author), Bots, P.W.G. (author), Wolters, H.A. (author), Hoekstra, A.Y. (author)
Stakeholder participation is advocated widely, but there is little structured, empirical research into its influence on policy development. We aim to further the insight into the characteristics of participatory policy development by comparing it to expert-based policy development for the same case. We describe the process of problem framing and...
journal article 2011
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
The treatment of uncertainty in the long-term planning of infrastructures in general and of mainports such as airports and seaports is a key challenge for decisionmakers. Moreover, these uncertainties have increased over the last decades due to changes in owner structure, changes in rules and regulations, and the ever increasing connectedness of...
doctoral thesis 2010
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Walker, W.E. (author), Marchau, V.A.W.J. (author)
Airport Strategic Planning (ASP) focuses on the development of plans for the long-term development of an airport. The dominant approach for ASP is Airport Master Planning (AMP). The goal of AMP is to provide a detailed blueprint for how the airport should look in the future, and how it can get there. Since a Master Plan is a static detailed...
journal article 2010
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Ligtvoet, A. (author)
Future price developments and availability of energy resources are uncertain. Therefore, developers of energy infrastructures will have to consider different scenarios in their planning. Moreover, the implementation of large infrastructures requires the cooperation of several actors, which adds to the uncertainty. In this paper we describe the...
conference paper 2010
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