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Economic implications of multi-layer safety projects for flood protection

Tsimopoulou, V. (author), Vrijling, J.K. (author), Kok, M. (author), Jonkman, S.N. (author), Stijnen, J.W. (author)

Recent experience of large-scale water disasters such as Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the Great Eastern Japan Earthquake and Tsunami in 2011 has reminded mankind that disasters cannot be ruledout. Unprecedented low-probability events can happen even in the most well monitored areas, causing major social-economic disruption. Failing to prepare...

conference paper 2013

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Safety management within Task Force Uruzgan: A report of working with Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

Moorkamp, M. (author), Kramer, E.H. (author), Van Gulijk, C. (author), Ale, B.J.M. (author)

In this paper we present a conceptualization of safety management that is based on the cybernetic concepts of “controllability” and “control capacity”. In particular, we explore what this conceptualization means for safety management of the Dutch Army’s UAV unit that was part of Task Force Uruzgan (TFU) in the years 2006–2007 and 2008–2009. In...

conference paper 2013

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A note on the ratio of the extreme to the root of the sum of squares in sequences of absolute values of Gaussian variables

Odijk, M.A. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author)

Let Z1, ..., Zn be i.i.d. standard normal variables, Mn the extreme among their absolute values, and Qn their rooted sum of squares. Here we study the ratio ?n =Mn /Qn. We show that ?(?n ) = ?(Mn )/?(Qn )~ bn / Vn ~ V2log(n)/n, where cn ~ dn denotes that cn /dn ?1 for n??. Moreover, convergence happens in a stable manner, i.e. ?n ~ ?(?n ) in...

conference paper 2013

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Determining critical factors to avoid failures in the building process

Dijkshoorn, G.W. (author), Terwel, K.C. (author), Guldenmund, F.W. (author)

During the last few years, several major accidents during the construction phase have occurred in the Dutch building industry. The collapse of a roof structure of the FC Twente football stadium and the collapse of a concrete floor of the B-tower Rotterdam are some recent examples. Consequently, Dutch contractors do need to establish a reliable...

conference paper 2013

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Risk approach to land reclamation: Feasibility of a polder terminal

Lendering, K.T. (author), Jonkman, S.N. (author), Peters, D.J. (author)

New ports are mostly constructed on low lying coastal areas or shallow coastal waters. The quay wall and terminal yard are raised to a level well above mean sea level to assure flood safety. The resulting ‘convention-al terminal’ requires large volumes of fill material often dredged from the sea, which is costly. The terminal yard of a ‘polder...

conference paper 2013

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Safety in construction?

Swuste, P.H.J.J. (author)

The available literature on Construction Safety is not very optimistic about the chances of evidence-based safety in the construction industry exerting a positive influence. Many articles indicate that the structures and processes that are designed to ensure safety in the industry are poor. Safety management systems do not work, or only...

conference paper 2013

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Methodological issues and pitfalls of short safety culture questionnaires

Jagtman, H.M. (author), Koornneef, F. (author), Akselsson, R. (author), Stewart, S. (author)

Safety culture surveys have been fielded in many different sectors of industrial activities. Many of these surveys consist of a long list of questions which is time consuming for the respondents. As part of the FP6 HILAS project a shorter survey has been developed, which aimed at getting a high response rate. The survey should give insights into...

conference paper 2013

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Reliability based structural design

Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M. (author)

According to ISO 2394, structures shall be designed, constructed and maintained in such a way that they are suited for their use during the design working life in an economic way. To fulfil this requirement one needs insight into the risk and reliability under expected and non-expected actions. A key role in this respect is played by the...

conference paper 2013

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A stochastic process model for life cycle cost analysis of nuclear power plant systems

Van der Weide, J.A.M. (author), Pandey, M.D. (author)

The paper presents a general stochastic model to analyze the life cycle cost of an engineering system that is affected by minor but repairable failures interrupting the operation and a major failure that would require the replacement or renewal of the failed system. It is commonly observed that the frequency of minor failures increases with...

conference paper 2013

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Modeling contractor and company employee behavior in high hazard operation

Lin, P.H. (author), Hanea, D. (author), Ale, B.J.M. (author)

The recent blow-out and subsequent environmental disaster in the Gulf of Mexico have highlighted a number of serious problems in scientific thinking about safety. Risk models have generally concentrated on technical failures, which are easier to model and for which there are more concrete data. However, many primary cause of the disasters, such...

conference paper 2013

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Experimental results about the assessments of conditional rank correlations by experts: Example with air pollution estimates

Morales-Napoles, O. (author), Hanea, A.M. (author), Worm, D.T.H. (author)

Science-based models often involve substantial uncertainty that must be quantified in a defendable way. Shortage of empirical data inevitably requires input from expert judgment. How this uncertainty is best elicited can be critical to a decision process, as differences in efficacy and robustness of the elicitation methods can be substantial....

conference paper 2013

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Further development of a method to calculate frequencies of loss of control including their uncertainty

Ale, B.J.M. (author), Van Gulijk, C. (author), Hanea, D.M. (author), Hudson, P. (author), Lin, P.H. (author), Sillem, S. (author), Steenhoek, M. (author), Ababei, D. (author)

An integrated model for risk in a real-time environment for the hydrocarbon industry based on the CATS model for commercial aviation safety has been further developed. The approach described in earlier papers required Bayesian Belief Nets (BBN) to be developed for each process unit separately. A much more efficient method for developing the...

conference paper 2013

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Writing short alarm messages: A matter of education, training and practice

Jagtman, H.M. (author)

The Netherlands has a new tool to alarm and inform the population in case of crises. NL-Alert can simultaneously draw people’s attention and explain the crisis matter. The use requires determining of both the impact area and the alarm text. This raises questions about required knowledge and expertise to compose messages. Current experiences are...

conference paper 2013

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Applying RAMSSHEEP analysis for risk-driven maintenance

Wagner, W. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author)

The Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment of The Netherlands and Rijkswaterstaat (RWS) aim to launch a risk-driven maintenance concept named RAMSSHEEP. Engineering and consultancy companies are expected to develop the RAMSSHEEP concept in order to create better maintenance strategies. The objective is to investigate whether RAMSSHEEP...

conference paper 2013

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Better science does not make decisions easier

Ale, B.J.M. (author)

Forty years of development in the science and technology of estimating and quantifying risk, of understanding of human behaviour and human rationale has made decision makers more informed. We are in a much better position now, than forty years ago in estimating probabilities, consequences, and damages, and in estimating and dealing with the...

conference paper 2013

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Deep and shallow uncertainty in messaging climate change

Cooke, R.M. (author)

Deep and shallow uncertainty are defined and contrasted with regard to messaging the uncertainty about climate change. Deep uncertainty is often traced back to the writings of Frank Knight, where in fact it simply meant subjective probability. Although Knight envisioned a scientifically grounded quantification of subjective uncertainty, deep...

conference paper 2013

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Left-hand side BBN model for process safety

Van Gulijk, C. (author), Hanea, D.H. (author), Almeida, K.Q. (author), Steenhoek, M. (author), Ale, B.J.M. (author), Ababei, D. (author)

This paper describes the blueprint of a model for calculating the left-hand side of the bow-tie for chemical plants is described. The model is based on Non-Parametric Bayesian Belief Nets so that uncertainties are automatically included. Also, the procedure for constructing the elements for the model is described. The aim is to calculate LoC...

conference paper 2013

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Design of a Human Reliability Assessment model for structural engineering

De Haan, J. (author), Terwel, K.C. (author), Al-Jibouri, S.H.S. (author)

It is generally accepted that humans are the “weakest link” in structural design and construction processes. Despite this, few models are available to quantify human error within engineering processes. This paper demonstrates the use of a quantitative Human Reliability Assessment model within structural engineering. The model consists of four...

conference paper 2013

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Multi layer safety: A generally efficient solution or work for all

Vrijling, J.K. (author)

The application of the “safety chain” consisting of proaction, prevention, preparation, repression/mitigation, recovery and learning will be studied in this paper. The chain appears to be a multi layer system, that is at least as safe as the safest layer. It will additionally be observed that the effectiveness of resources spent in prevention is...

conference paper 2013

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Assessment of the losses due to business interruption caused by large-scale floods

Vilier, J. (author), Kok, M. (author), Nicolai, R.P. (author)

The economic consequences of floods, both in the form of material damage and losses due to business interruption, can be large. This paper presents a comparison between two approaches to determine the losses due to business interruption caused by large-scale floods. A model (HIS-SSM) containing a damage function approach and an Adaptive Input...

conference paper 2013