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de Pater, I.I. (author), Mitici, M.A. (author)
Health indicators are crucial to assess the health of complex systems. In recent years, several studies have developed data-driven health indicators using supervised learning methods. However, due to preventive maintenance, there are often not enough failure instances to train a supervised learning model, i.e., the data is unlabelled with an...
conference paper 2023
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Li, S. (author)
Multivariate distributions are indispensable tools for modeling complex data structures with multiple dependent variables. Despite extensive research on discrete multivariate distributions, the multivariate Poisson distribution remains inadequately defined. However, multivariate Poisson counts are not rare and have gained considerable attention...
conference paper 2023
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Santjer, R. (author), Mares Nasarre, P. (author), El Serafy, G.Y.H. (author), Morales Napoles, O. (author)
Aquaculture is gaining importance in the current context of continuous growth population as a source of (local) food resources and its potential of being combined with other uses at sea (e.g.: offshore energy production or tourism). Consequently, within the European Horizon 2020 project UNITED, the combination of mussel and seaweed cultivation...
conference paper 2023
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Rongen, G.W.F. (author), Throssell, Ben (author)
Accurately modelling rainfall events is crucial for flood risk assessment and stormwater infrastructure design. However, transforming statistical characteristics of events into relevant rainfall patterns is challenging due to the natural variability of rainfall. Two commonly used methods to schematize rainfall events have limitations: the nested...
conference paper 2023
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Bakker, A.M.R. (author), Busnach, Tycho (author), Mooyaart, L.F. (author), Van Gijzen, L. (author)
The efficacy of risk models and risk analyses critically hinges on sufficient model evaluation. Nevertheless, the usefulness for the intended purpose is rarely systematically assessed. Poor or even lacking model evaluation of the applied risk models and analyses also troubles the asset management of storm surge barriers in the Netherlands. In...
conference paper 2023
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Torres Alves, G.A. (author), Morales Napoles, O. (author), Mares Nasarre, P. (author)
Before the year 1519, the Valley of Mexico was a closed basin and at the bottom of the valley, an extensive system of shallow lakes was formed. Within this lacustrine system, the capital of the Aztec empire, Tenochtitlan, was built. The Aztecs were known for their impressive constructions and complex hydraulic structures, of which the most...
conference paper 2023
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Mendoza Lugo, M.A. (author), Torres Alves, G.A. (author), Morales Napoles, O. (author)
Investigating the reliability of ancient hydraulic structures constructed without modern probabilistic criteria allows an understanding of why and how the structure fails. In this paper, we present an extended method, firstly introduced by Torres-Alves and Morales-Nápoles (2020), to perform the reliability analysis of the Nezahualcoyotl's dike...
conference paper 2023
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Mooyaart, L.F. (author), Bakker, A.M.R. (author), van den Bogaard, J.A. (author), Jonkman, Sebastiaan N. (author)
Coastal defenses must be upgraded to combat increasing flood risk due to climate change and other factors. Storm surge barriers, large movable hydraulic structures that close temporarily during storm surges to prevent coastal floods, play a vital role in protecting estuaries. Due to the complexity of their risk analyses, important improvements...
conference paper 2023
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Mitici, M.A. (author), de Pater, I.I. (author), Zeng, Zhiguo (author), Barros, Anne (author)
We pose the maintenance planning for systems using probabilistic Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prognostics as a renewal reward process. Data-driven probabilistic RUL prognostics are obtained using a Convolutional Neural Network with Monte Carlo dropout. The maintenance planning model is illustrated for aircraft turbofan engines. The results show...
conference paper 2023
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Lye, Adolphus (author), Marino, Luca (author)
One of the advanced Monte Carlo techniques employed to perform Bayesian model updating on the epistemic model parameter(s) is the Transitional Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler. A key characteristic in its sampling approach involves the use of "transitional" distributions to allow samples to converge iteratively from the prior to the final...
conference paper 2023
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Inamdar, A.S. (author), van Driel, W.D. (author), Zhang, Kouchi (author)
Digital Twin can be broadly described as a continuously updated virtual representation of an object, system, or process which replicates all phases in the lifecycle of its physical counterpart. Originally conceptualized in 2003 [1], the term `Digital Twin' came into existence after it first appeared in NASA's roadmap in 2010 [2]. The concept...
conference paper 2023
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Gonzalez Acosta, J.L. (author), van den Eijnden, A.P. (author), Hicks, M.A. (author)
1D soil column techniques are widely used to evaluate the potential of liquefaction in a system of soil layers. This approach generally leads to large inaccuracies since (1) soil layers are hardly homogeneous and perfectly horizontal and (2) horizontal effects are neglected. To demonstrate the limitation of 1D strategies and the need for 2D...
conference paper 2022
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Cassottana, Beatrice (author), Aydin, N.Y. (author), Tang, Loon Ching (author)
Water Distribution Systems (WDSs) are critical infrastructures for providing water to sustain life and human activities. Some recent trends, such as climate change, urbanization, and increasing system interdependence, have led to more frequent threats, with detrimental effects on WDSs. In recent years, resilience has been considered an effective...
conference paper 2020
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van der Krogt, M.G. (author), Schweckendiek, T. (author)
In this paper we show how to calibrate a site-specific transformation model to measure the undrained shear strength from CPTs. This practically unbiased transformation model can then be used to make a better estimation of the spatial average parameter, such as the depth-average of a soil layer in a homogenous deposit, using less costly indirect...
conference paper 2019
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Li, R. (author), Verhagen, W.J.C. (author), Curran, R. (author)
Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is crucial for the implementation of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) systems, enabling application of predictive maintenance strategies for critical systems (e.g. in aviation, power, railway). Existing literature addresses aspects of data-driven prognostic approaches, with a predominant focus on...
conference paper 2019
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Brocal, Francisco (author), González-Gaya, G. (author), Sebastián, Miguel A. (author), Reniers, G.L.L.M.E. (author), Paltrinieri, Nicola (author)
As a result of the important and rapid technological advances in industrial processes, in recent years the scientific interest in the field of occupational health and safety (OH&S) is increasing. This scenario of continuous change generates both new opportunities and new challenges in the workplace. This circumstance allows eliminating or...
conference paper 2019
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Pol, J.C. (author), van Beek, Vera (author), Kanning, W. (author), Jonkman, Sebastiaan N. (author)
Backward erosion piping is an important failure mode of dikes and dams. The time required for the backward erosion process to result in dike failure is expected to be an important factor in the safety of dikes. This holds especially in coastal and estuarine areas which are dominated by storm surge, and pipes may not fully develop during a storm....
conference paper 2019
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Ren, X. (author), Terwel, K.C. (author), Nikolic, I. (author), van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author)
Human and Organizational Factors (HOFs) are considered to have significant impacts on structural reliability. Yet how structural reliability is affected by these factors and how large this impact is remains inadequately studied. A model that is designed to reveal such relationships is proposed in this paper. First, a review of problem related...
conference paper 2019
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Ale, B.J.M. (author), Hartford, D.N.D. (author), Slater, D.H. (author)
In the philosophy of SAFETY-I variability is seen as a threat, because it brings with it the possibility of an unwanted outcome. Variability of hardware is curtailed by, amongst other things, precise specifications. Variability of human behavior is curtailed by inter alia regulations and protocols. In the philosophy of SAFETY-II variability is...
conference paper 2019
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Abrishami, S. (author), Khakzad, N. (author), van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author), Hosseini, Seyed Mahmoud (author)
Success Likelihood Index Model (SLIM) is one of the widely-used methods in human reliability assessment especially when data is insufficient. However, this method suffers from uncertainty as it heavily relies on expert judgment for determining the model parameters such as the rates and weights of the performance shaping factors. The present...
conference paper 2019
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