Inferring rare events: The role of the length of observations

Extreme value analyses (EVA) are often used to determine the frequency of extreme events. The length of the available observations is an important aspect when performing EVA. It is generally known that more available data results in better estimates with less uncertainties. The main objective of this research report was to assess what the...

Reducing Measurement Uncertainty of Temperature Coefficients of Photovoltaic Modules

In temperature coefficient measurements of PV modules, a low level of agreement in results is observed between different laboratories, with deviations up to ±10% for Pmax temperature coefficients. Such deviations are considered as an uncertainty component in PV energy yield assessments, and are seen as financial risk by investors and purchasers....

Trench Siltation near the ETM of a Well-mixed Estuary

To exploit its socio-economic functions, engineering measures are regularly applied in estuaries. Estuaries are, however, known to be very complex systems. Stemming from this complexity is the generation of a so-called estuarine turbidity maximum (ETM), which poses great siltation problems to the engineering measures. An engineering measure,...

Urban building energy modeling using a 3D city model and minimizing uncertainty through Bayesian inference: A case study focuses on Amsterdam residential heating demand simulation

To cut down immense greenhouse gases emission and energy consumption in the rapidly urbanizing world, a holistic understanding and rethinking of our dynamic urban energy system are inevitable. Performing bottom-up building energy modelings at urban scale based on Geographic Information System (GIS) and semantic 3D city models could be a...

In Search For A Place In World Order: Dynamic Modelling of National Power Using A Systems Approach

Difficulties arise in the making of predictions, since ideas and views on the future are often based on current conditions and, with only minor adjustments, it is simply expected that those conditions will continue into the future. With the goal of supporting experts in their scenario analysis this thesis is part of a pilot between the analysis...

How good is good enough in DP calculations?: A case study into uncertainties involved in the DP capability prediction process

Currently there are three methods of calculating the Dynamic Positioning capability of a vessel namely: static calculations, real-time time domain simulations and fast-time time domain simulations, although the outcome of the last two should be identical. In each of these methods a set of input variables is required to perform the calculations....

Reliability of Ultimate Limit State Design in Finite Elements and Compliance with Eurocode 7

Geotechnical design problems may be characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty, due to insufficient soil data and transformation of test results in soil parameters. In common practice, engineers perform deterministic analyses according to design standards as Eurocode 7, where the uncertainties are taken into account through partial factors...

Appreciation of project management by planning under uncertainties in a high-tech company

In the current era of cut-throat competition, companies carry out projects to support its business. However, studies show that these projects fail to provide the expected results. This is due to the fast-changing environment where the project is set-in. The planning of the projects is influenced by the presence of these uncertainties and hence,...

Endogenous technological change, dynamic discounting and uncertainty in climate policy models

Achieving Sustained Competitive Advantage for Project-Based Organizations: Case Study on How Best to Prepare for the Future

Many renowned organizations have come and go in past decades because markets in which they once thrived changed. Many factors can play a role why established organizations are slow to understand and react on external changes that create paradigm shifts. This is a universal dilemma; however established project-based organizations struggle in...

Cost-effective levee design for cases along the Meuse river including uncertainties in hydraulic loads

After the flood of 1993 and 1995 in the Netherlands, flood risks in Limburg became an important discussion. Each flood defence system along the river Meuse needs to be provided with a safety level with an annual failure probability of 1/250. In the nearby future a new safety philosophy will be introduced, entailing new safety norms and...

A Quick Look into the Future: An exploratory study of plausible future trajectories of indium supply under deep uncertainty

Economic importance for the indium mineral has been growing in recent years and indium is usually referred to as one of the technology minerals. High tech industries use indium in their application because of the special properties: transparency and electrical conductivity. Indium demand has more than doubled in the last decade and is expected...

Exploratory modeling: A tool for communicating the future: A case study of valuing flexibility in flood defense strategies

Decision-making for flood defense while facing a considerable change in driving forces demands other methods than the traditional approach of forecasting and optimal policy selection. Exploratory modeling can be a candidate for helping adaptive policymaking to deal with the uncertainties that confront decision-makers. In adaptive policymaking...