Implications of ambiguity in Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates: a probabilistic assessment

Sea-level rise (SLR) can amplify the episodic erosion from storms and drive chronic erosion on sandy shorelines, threatening many coastal communities. One of the major uncertainties in SLR projections is the potential rapid disintegration of large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). Quantifying this uncertainty is essential to support...

Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment

Despite considerable advances in process understanding, numerical modeling, and the observational record of ice sheet contributions to global mean sea-level rise (SLR) since the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, severe limitations remain in the predictive capability of ice sheet models. As a...

The impact of uncertain Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion: A probabilistic approach for a data-scarce environment in the Caribbean

Sandy beaches comprise large parts of the world's shorelines and act as a natural buffer for many exposed people and assets that are concentrated in the coastal zone. Many coastal communities are vulnerable to the impact of sea-level rise (SLR) that can amplify the episodic erosion from storms and drive structural erosion. The way communities...