Toward more reliable cost estimations for asset replacement projects: Incorporating probabilistic models and the price uncertainty in the preliminary cost assessments for asset replacement projects

The majority of existing infrastructure assets are ageing, and sooner or later, they will have reached the end of their service life. As a result, many asset owners are confronted with large-scale replacement projects in the coming decades. Annually, they allocate a significant number of resources, but these budgets are never adequate for...

Cost-conscious designing of Dutch transportation infrastructure projects: A first explorative research into the ‘control’ based factors for reducing the front-end cost escalations

Cost overruns in infrastructure projects has been a well-known phenomenon for almost a decade. As per the generally accepted definition, the industry has been measuring cost overruns as the cost exceedance with respect to the approved contractor’s budget. But researchers are realizing the fact that the decision-to-build is generally taken long...

Learnings from IPAT Assessments that can be used for improving future infrastructure projects: IPAT- Infrastructure Project Assessment Tool

Most of the large infrastructure projects (LIPs) are characterized with significant time delays and cost overruns. In order to be able to deploy the LIPs more effectively, make optimal use of the resources and investments and timely deliver the projects NETLIPSE was set up. NETLIPSE developed a project assessment tool called the Infrastructure...

The Interplay between the Contract Type and the Management of Cost Groups: Exploring the relationship between the contract type and the management of cost groups in Dutch national infrastructure projects

Construction projects are argued to be the most complex of all production undertakings (Baccarini, 1996). Williams (2002, 2005) states that the complexity of these projects is a contributing factor to project failures, such as cost overrun, which are commonly seen in infrastructure project (Cantarelli, Molin, Van Wee, & Flyvbjerg, 2012). As...

Optimism bias evaluation and decision-making risk forecast on bridge project cost based on reference class forecasting: Evidence from China

The high uncertainty of megaproject results in increasing complexity in the decisionmaking and ultimately leads to different degrees of cost overrun and project delays. One of the critical reasons for cost overrun and delay is the optimism bias of decision makers. Although the previous literature has analyzed the cost overrun distribution of...

Five things you should know about cost overrun

This paper gives an overview of good and bad practice for understanding and curbing cost overrun in large capital investment projects, with a critique of Love and Ahiaga-Dagbui (2018) as point of departure. Good practice entails: (a) Consistent definition and measurement of overrun; in contrast to mixing inconsistent baselines, price levels,...

Cost and time overruns: Business as usual; from failure to success projects by steering and intervening in building processes

Cost and time overruns are common but unacceptable. Research on causes and indicators has been done but cost and time overruns still take place. The focus on success projects in relation to management methods should give new perspectives. This research will focus on management tools to steer and/or intervene in the process to prevent or decrease...

Contract models: Cost & time overruns

In many construction projects cost and time overruns occur. Especially when public parties are involved in these overruns this may lead to an image decline for the whole construction industry. Flyvbjerg researched multiple infrastructural projects in 20 different countries and found that roads are in average 20% more expensive than planned and...

Het ontstaan van lock-in in het besluitvormingsproces en de invloed daarvan op de projectprestatie van grootschalige transportinfrastructuurprojecten

Een belangrijk fenomeen dat kostenoverschrijdingen kan verklaren is lock-in. We definiëren lockin als de buitenmatige verbondenheid van besluitmakers aan een inefficiënt besluit. Dit kan op twee manieren invloed hebben op de mate van kostenoverschrijdingen. Ten eerste methodologisch: kostenoverschrijdingen worden berekend op basis van de...

Kostenoverschrijdingen in transportinfrastructuurprojecten in Nederland en wereldwijd: Kenmerken en determinanten van kostenoverschrijdingen

In Nederland komen kostenoverschrijdingen minder vaak voor en is de gemiddelde overschrijding lager dan in andere landen. Het grootste deel van de kostenoverschrijding komt voor in de fase voor de start van de bouw. De gemiddelde kostenoverschrijding is het kleinst voor spoorwegen gevolgd door wegen en kunstwerken. Spoorwegen en bruggen in...

Cost Overruns in Large-Scale Transport Infrastructure Projects: A theoretical and empirical exploration for the Netherlands and worldwide

In the Netherlands, the costs of railroad infrastructure construction work out 11 per cent higher than forecast; the percentage for roads is 19 and 22 for bridges and tunnels. While this puts the Netherlands in a favourable light compared to other countries, the actual cost overruns are probably far higher, believes Chantal Cantarelli, who...

Cost Overruns in Large-scale Transportation Infrastructure Projects: Explanations and Their Theoretical Embeddedness

Managing large-scale transportation infrastructure projects is difficult due to frequent misinformation about the costs which results in large cost overruns that often threaten the overall project viability. This paper investigates the explanations for cost overruns that are given in the literature. Overall, four categories of explanations can...