Updating scenarios: A multi-layer framework for structurally incorporating new information and uncertainties into scenarios

A dynamic and fast-changing environment brings challenges for generating long-term scenarios. Although the need to update scenarios for decision-making is recognized, a structured way for executing this process remains unclear. To configure a solution, we propose two concepts that need to be introduced: 1) that scenarios consist of a multi...

Framework for updating scenarios: A multi-layer framework for structurally incorporating new information and uncertainties into scenarios

The dynamic and fast-changing environment brings challenges for generating long-term visions of the future; scenarios. Outdated scenarios will result in future pathways that are no longer achievable and therefore reduces their relevance and usefulness for making decisions. As some uncertainty is resolved over time, while other uncertainties...