Searched for: subject%3A%22Expert%255C+Judgment%22
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van der Poel, Hugo (author)
During this bachelorproject, more research is done to investigate the properties of the Hanea’s and Nane’s calibration score and to look at slight adjustment of Hanea’s and Nane’s calibration score. Both simulated data and real data will be used to investigate the behaviour of these calibration scores.
bachelor thesis 2023
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Hanea, Anca Maria (author), Nane, G.F. (author)
contribution to periodical 2022
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Hanea, D.M. (author)
doctoral thesis 2009
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Cooke, R.M. (author), Wittmann, M.E. (author), Lodge, D.M. (author), Rothlisberger, J.D. (author), Rutherford, E.S. (author), Zhang, H. (author), Mason, D.M. (author)
Structured expert judgment (SEJ) is used to quantify the uncertainty of nonindigenous fish (bighead carp [Hypophthalmichthys nobilis] and silver carp [H. molitrix]) establishment in Lake Erie. The classical model for structured expert judgment model is applied. Forming a weighted combination (called a decision maker) of experts' distributions,...
journal article 2014
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Rothlisberger, J.D. (author), Finnoff, D.C. (author), Cooke, R.M. (author), Lodge, D.M. (author)
We used structured expert judgment and economic analysis to quantify annual impacts on ecosystem services in the Great Lakes, North America of nonindigenous aquatic species introduced by ocean-going ships. For the US waters, median damages aggregated across multiple ecosystem services were $138 million per year, and there is a 5% chance that for...
journal article 2012
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Dharmarathne, Gayan (author), Nane, G.F. (author), Robinson, Andrew (author), Hanea, Anca M. (author)
Mathematical aggregation of probabilistic expert judgments often involves weighted linear combinations of experts’ elicited probability distributions of uncertain quantities. Experts’ weights are commonly derived from calibration experiments based on the experts’ performance scores, where performance is evaluated in terms of the calibration and...
journal article 2023
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Kindermann, P.E. (author), Brouwer, Wietske S. (author), van Hamel, A. (author), van Haren, Mick (author), Verboeket, Rik P. (author), Nane, G.F. (author), Lakhe, Hanik (author), Prajapati, Rajaram (author), Davids, J.C. (author)
Like other cities in the Kathmandu Valley, Bhaktapur faces rapid urbanisation and population growth. Rivers are negatively impacted by uncontrolled settlements in flood-prone areas, lowering permeability, decreasing channels widths, and waste blockage. All these issues, along with more extreme rain events during the monsoon due to climate...
journal article 2020
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Cooke, R.M. (author)
Averaging quantiles as a way of combining experts' judgments is studied both mathematically and empirically. Quantile averaging is equivalent to taking the harmonic mean of densities evaluated at quantile points. A variance shrinkage law is established between equal and harmonic weighting. Data from 49 post-2006 studies are extended to...
journal article 2022
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Colson, Abigail (author), Cooke, R.M. (author)
We update the 2008 TU Delft structured expert judgment database with data from 33 professionally contracted Classical Model studies conducted between 2006 and March 2015 to evaluate its performance relative to other expert aggregation models. We briefly review alternative mathematical aggregation schemes, including harmonic weighting, before...
journal article 2017
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Bamber, J.L. (author), Aspinall, W.P. (author), Cooke, R.M. (author)
We clarify key aspects of the evaluation, by de Vries and van de Wal (2015), of our expert elicitation paper on the contributions of ice sheet melting to sea level rise due to future global temperature rise scenarios (Bamber and Aspinall 2013), and extend the conversation with further analysis of their proposed approach for combining expert...
journal article 2016
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Boon, C.W. (author), van Wee, G.P. (author)
Consumer 3D printing is on the rise and has the potential to significantly change the transport and logistics sector. Current literature on 3D printing and transport studies does not provide a systematic model of the impact of 3D printing on transport and related (policy relevant) areas, such as traffic safety, location decisions,...
journal article 2018
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Leontaris, G. (author), Morales Napoles, O. (author)
The Classical model (or Cooke’s model) for elicitation and combination of expert judgments has been used in science and engineering since at least the early 1990’s. The most widely used program for applications of this model is EXCALIBUR. However, its code is not available for practitioners, which limits the accessibility and potential of the...
journal article 2018
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Medina, Edgardo (author), Fonseca, Carlos Roberto (author), Gallego-Alarcón, Iván (author), Morales Napoles, O. (author), Gómez-Albores, Miguel Angel (author), Esparza-Soto, Mario (author), Mastachi-Loza, Carlos Alberto (author), García-Pulido, Daury (author)
Technical, economic, regulatory, environmental, and social and political interests make the process of selecting an appropriate wastewater treatment technology complex. Although this problem has already been addressed from the dimensioning approach, our proposal in this research, a model of decision making for conventional secondary treatment of...
journal article 2022
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Leontaris, G. (author), Morales Napoles, O. (author), Dewan, Ashish (author), Wolfert, A.R.M. (author)
Offshore asset construction is a complex and costly process that is subject to various uncertainties within the entire supply chain. Hence, both the construction management optimization and the reduction of deployment expenditures should be supported by automated decision support models which include proper representations of predominant...
journal article 2019
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't Hart, C.M.P. (author), Leontaris, G. (author), Morales Napoles, O. (author)
This is an update to PII: S2352711018300608. In this paper, we discuss ANDURYL, which is a Python-based open source successor of the MATLAB toolbox ANDURIL. The output of ANDURYL is in good agreement with the results obtained from ANDURIL and EXCALIBUR. Additional features available in ANDURYL, and not available in its predecessors, are discussed.
journal article 2019
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Rongen, G.W.F. (author), Morales Napoles, O. (author), Kok, M. (author)
The Wettelijk Beoordelingsinstrumentarium (WBI) is the legal set of instruments for flood risk analysis in the Netherlands. Often, engineers have the impression that some failure probabilities of flood defenses resulting from these instruments are overestimated. In an effort to better estimate the failure probabilities of dikes along the...
journal article 2022
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Rongen, G.W.F. (author), 't Hart, C.M.P. (author), Leontaris, G. (author), Morales Napoles, O. (author)
This is an update to PII: S2352711018300608 and S2352711019302419 In this paper, we present three main improvements of ANDURIL and its python version ANDURYL. First the MATLAB version ANDURIL is brought to the Python version standard by implementing (i) user defined quantiles and (ii) the possibility to deal with missing values. Second, the...
journal article 2020
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Kumar, Jeevan (author)
The emergence of the Data Marketplaces is the latest iteration in the phenomenon of data-driven transformation of the world. Data marketplaces have emerged as a new form of data-driven business models which enable trading of data between the data owners/providers and data consumers by providing the necessary technological and non-technological...
master thesis 2019
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Radityo Andjaringrat Adhi, Theo (author)
Maturity model has proven to be helpful for an organization to identify its current capability, strength, and weaknesses through maturity levels. These levels are used to rank the various dimension or process of an organization. However, maturity levels only describe a general description of organization capability. The effect of different...
master thesis 2019
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Jäger, W.S. (author)
master thesis 2013
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