Understanding long-term labour market dynamics under deep uncertainty: A system dynamics approach for a labour market system

The Netherlands is subject to labour scarcity across a variety of industries. While labour scarcity has occurred in the past, only now the consequences of higher educational attainment have become prevalent in the Netherlands. Due to a shortage of vocational workers and a population that is getting older, circumstances ask for adequate policy...

Optimal in-store fulfillment policies for online orders in an omni-channel retail environment

The explosive growth of e-commerce creates a need for increasingly responsive omni-channel fulfillment capabilities, which raises new challenges in inventory management and order fulfillment for retailers. In response to these challenges, many retailers attempt to establish so-called ship-from-store concepts, which leverage their physical...

Modelling Uncertainty: Developing and Using Simulation Models for Exploring the Consequences of Deep Uncertainty in Complex Problems

Simulation models are increasingly used for exploring the consequences of deep uncertainty in complex societal issues. The complexity of societal grand challenges, often characterised by the interrelatedness of different elements in the systems underlying these challenges, often renders mental simulation impossible, necessitating the use of...

Exploration of paths leading to major power war

Parallel use of agent-based and System Dynamics modelling: Multi-method scenario discovery of gas import dependency

With the decline of conventional gas resources in many industrialised regions, energy security has increasingly become a topic of interest. Fuelled by disturbed diplomatic relations, both national and regional governments have the desire to decrease their dependency on foreign nations for their gas supply. However, the energy future of these...

Financial Stress Testing: A model based exploration under deep uncertainty

Years of turmoil in the banking sector have revealed the need to assess the performance of banks and explore the resilience of the banking system under adverse futures. Banks are not the safe houses everyone believed them to be, as the recent crisis of 2007 showed. Today, banks are highly uncertain dynamically complex systems that are...

Credit to SMEs? Robust Lending Decisions with Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis

This project’s commissioner, the head of ING’s emerging markets credit trading desk developed a loan structure called Revenue Participation Loan to fit the needs of SMEs in emerging markets. He now wants to combine this new product with innovation in his approach to uncertainty. With these types of loans SMEs agree to pay a fixed percentage of...

Economic and Environmental Assessment of Extended Producer Responsibility and No Reuse Policies in Mobile Phone End of Life Networks

This thesis presents an assessment of the economic and environmental effects of Extended Producer Responsibility and No Reuse Policies, by using an agent-based model of Mobile Phone End of Life Networks. Electronic waste of mobile phones is an increasing problem. Governments have reacted by adopting various types of legislation, the most common...