Circular Transitional Housing for displaced people in extreme conditions: the case of Pakistan

Global displacement has been rapidly increasing over the last decades and is expected to rise even further in the upcoming years due to the negative impacts of climate change and more frequent and severe weather events. This highlights the growing demand for sustainable housing for the displaced. Transitional housing is a structurally sound...

Shower thoughts: why scientists should spend more time in the rain

Stormwater is a vital resource and dynamic driver of terrestrial ecosystem processes. However, processes controlling interactions during and shortly after storms are often poorly seen and poorly sensed when direct observations are substituted with technological ones. We discuss how human observations complement technological ones and the...

Machine learning-based identification of precursors of extreme events in chaotic systems

Abrupt and rapid high-amplitude changes in a dynamical system’s states known as extreme events appear in many processes occurring in nature, such as drastic climate patterns, rogue waves, or avalanches. These events often entail catastrophic effects, therefore their description and prediction is of great importance. Nevertheless, because of...

Non-stationary multivariate extreme events in mangrove environments: A global impact assessment

Mangrove is a coastal vegetation type primarily located in the tropical regions between 5 North and 5 South. This coastal vegetation is capable of reducing the force of incoming waves. This is a result of the obstruction created by the roots, stems and canopies against waves to propagate through. Because of this capability, mangrove vegetation...

Tail characteristics of CRPS-based distributions

In my thesis I researched the potential paths and pitfalls of the newly created ``Taillardat index''.<br/>This index uses the tail characteristics of several CRPS-based distributions to rank forecasters on how well they forecast, with a slight emphasis on extreme events.<br/>From my research I concluded that the ``Taillardat Index'' in its...

Remote sensing-based prediction of forest fire characteristics

Forest fires are a major ecosystem disturbance at global scale, put pressure on agencies in charge of citizens and infrastructure security and cause unvaluable human losses. Fires are controlled by multiple static and dynamic drivers related to topography, land cover, climate, weather, and anthropic activity. Among these, weather is an active...

Combining multi-spectral and thermal remote sensing to predict forest fire characteristics

Forest fires preparedness strategies require the assessment of spatial and temporal variability of fire danger. While several tools have been developed to predict fire occurrence and behaviour from weather data, it is acknowledged that fire danger models may benefit from direct assessment of live fuel condition, as allowed by Earth Observation...

Screening wave conditions for the occurrence of green water events on sailing ships

Design loads for extreme wave events on ships, such as slamming and green water, are hard to define. These events depend on details in the incoming waves, ship motions and structure layout, which requires high-fidelity tools such as CFD or experiments to obtain the correct loads. These tools (presently) do not have the capability to fully...

Short- And long-term predictions of chaotic flows and extreme events: A physics-constrained reservoir computing approach

We propose a physics-constrained machine learning method - based on reservoir computing - to time-accurately predict extreme events and long-term velocity statistics in a model of chaotic flow. The method leverages the strengths of two different approaches: empirical modelling based on reservoir computing, which learns the chaotic dynamics...

Sediment dynamics and transport regimes in a narrow microtidal estuary

Estuarine sediment dynamics are a consequence of various forcings (barotropic, estuarine circulation, and fluvial) that vary in space and time. Here, we present a study examining sediment dynamics in a narrow microtidal estuary, the Lower Passaic River in New Jersey, USA. The analysis incorporates measurements of suspended sediments,...

Change of nearshore extreme wind and wave climate in southeast Africa

L'uso eccessivo di combustibili fossili sta causando la riduzione delle riserve di carbone, oltre ad un aumento delle emissioni di gas “effetto serra” esacerbando i cambiamenti climatici. Tali condizioni alterano la circolazione dei venti sugli oceani e, di conseguenza, il clima ondoso, con effetti non solo sui regimi medi, ma anche sugli...

Impacts of extreme events on hydrodynamic characteristics of a submerged floating tunnel

A submerged floating tunnel (SFT) is a promising alternative to conventional bridges and tunnels, and can be potentially built in the Qiongzhou Strait in China. However, this area is under the threat of disasters including mega tsunamis and severe storm surges. To evaluate the hydrodynamic loads of the SFT in this hazardous zone subject to...

Communication Structures and Decision Making Cues and Criteria to Support Effective Drought Warning in Central Malawi

Early warning systems trigger early action and enable better disaster preparedness. People-centered dissemination and communication are pivotal for the effective uptake of early warnings. Current research predominantly focuses on sudden-onset hazards, such as floods, ignoring considerable differences with slow-onset hazards, such as droughts....

Predicting forest fires burned area and rate of spread from pre-fire multispectral satellite measurements

Operational forest fire danger rating systems rely on the recent evolution of meteorological variables to estimate dead fuel condition. Further combining the latter with meteorological and environmental variables, they predict fire occurrence and spread. In this study we retrieved live fuel condition from MODIS multispectral measurements in...

Influence of Flood Water Contribution from Multiple Sources in Extreme Event Statistics of Urban Flooding

For pluvial flood risk assessment in urban areas it is important to be able to calculate how often a specific area is at risk of flooding. This is especially evident in urban areas subject to contribution from multiple sources, e.g. surcharging drainage system, surface runoff, overflowing rivers, etc. In this study extreme event statistics are...

Cliff Retreat Induced by Series of Storms at Miȩdzyzdroje (Poland)

In Miȩdzyzdroje, a coastal town in Poland, significant cliff retreat has been observed in recent times. It used to be considered mainly a response to storm events with particularly high water levels and wave energy. However, morphology of cliff coasts is shaped not only by the most extreme storm surges or by a number of accompanying processes...

Toward an Improved Representation of Middle Atmospheric Dynamics Thanks to the ARISE Project

This paper reviews recent progress toward understanding the dynamics of the middle atmosphere in the framework of the Atmospheric Dynamics Research InfraStructure in Europe (ARISE) initiative. The middle atmosphere, integrating the stratosphere and mesosphere, is a crucial region which influences tropospheric weather and climate. Enhancing...

The dichotomous Markov process with nonparametric test application; a decision support method in long-term river behavioural analysis: The Zayandeh Rud River; a case study from central Iran

We use the Dichotomous Markov Noise (DMN) model with constant transition rates to describe the dynamics of fluctuations in the water level as a stochastic process, which is imposed on river discharge changes. By applying this model, two different regimes are determined for the long-term behaviour of the river. Based on these regimes, we define...