Formal modelling and verification of a multi-agent negotiation approach for airline operations control

This paper proposes and evaluates a new airline disruption management strategy using multi-agent system modelling, simulation, and verification. This new strategy is based on a multi-agent negotiation protocol and is compared with three airline strategies based on established industry practices. The application concerns Airline Operations...

Random Deviations Improve Micro–Macro Predictions: An Empirical Test

Many sociological theories make critically different macropredictions when their microassumptions are implemented stochastically rather than deterministically. Deviations from individuals’ behavioral patterns described by microtheories can spark cascades that change macrooutcomes, even when deviations are rare and random. With two experiments...

Prospects of modelling societal transitions: Position paper of an emerging community

Societal transitions involve multiple actors, changes in institutions, values and technologies, and interactions across multiple sectors and scales. Given this complexity, this paper takes on the view that the societal transitions research field would benefit from the further maturation and broader uptake of modelling approaches. This paper...

Strategic Behavior in Liberalized Electricity Sectors: Game Theoretical Formal Modeling in Policy Analysis

The electricity infrastructure, like many other networked infrastructures, is an indispensable and integral part of developed economies. The economic growth, quality of life and general well-being of modern societies all depend on the smooth, reliable and efficient operation of electricity system. On the other hand, adverse strategic behavior by...

How to Explore and Manage the Future? Formal Model Analysis for Complex Issues under Deep Uncertainty

Formal Model Analysis (FMA) covers a group of methods and techniques to study structurebehaviour relations in best-estimate models. That is, FMA aims to identify the structural causes for the particular dynamics of a single best-estimate model. Under deep uncertainty, the notion of a best-estimate model is however troublesome. Then Exploratory...

Expectations of Formal Model Analysis Methods: Implications for SIG-MA

At the 2008 System Dynamics Conference in Athens a survey of the understanding and expectations of conference participants regarding model analysis was conducted. Respondents included both those active in research on formal model analysis methods and those only vaguely familiar with the term. Results from the survey are presented and discussed...

Participatory Model Construction and Model Use in Natural Resource Management: A Framework for Reflection

In this article we propose a framework which can assist analysts in their reflection on the requirements for a participatory modelling exercise in natural resource management. Firstly, we distinguish different types of formal models which may be developed, ranging from models that focus on (bio)physical mechanisms to models which also include...