Reliability-based calibration of design code formulas: Application to shear resistance formulas for reinforced concrete members without shear reinforcement

This paper presents a reliability-based calibration method for design code formulas. The method is demonstrated on the shear design formulas in Eurocode 2 and fib Model Code 2010 (MC2010). We found that the partial factor (Formula presented.) in the current Eurocode 2 is about 20% lower than the optimal value and, thus, provides an...

Improving hydrological model performance using storm- dependent parameters

Calibration and model prediction is always affected by uncertainty in the forcing data, response data and structural error in the model. The storm-dependent parameters are believed to be able to capture these errors and improve model prediction. The goal of this research will be to further investigate and develop the storm-based approach and...

Uncertainty Estimation in Regional Models of Long-Term GIA Uplift and Sea Level Change: An Overview

This work provides a comparison of four approaches that can be used to describe uncertainty in models of the long-term glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) process. The four methods range from pessimistic to optimistic representations of GIA uncertainty. Each estimation method is applied to selected one dimensional GIA model predictions and...

Model Uncertainty of Non-Linear Finite Element Analysis of Reinforced Concrete Beams without Shear Reinforcement: Examining the Effect of Modelling Strategies and Modes of Failure

The aim of this thesis project is to investigate the model uncertainty of non-linear finite element analysis of reinforced concrete structures at ultimate limit state by focusing on concrete cracking model, concrete-reinforcement interaction model and mesh size. Following this, eight finite element modelling strategies are developed and 67...

Bayesian Inference of Piping Model Uncertainties Based on Field Observations

This paper presents a Bayesian model to determine the model uncertainty of a critical horizontal gradient model for piping for dikes, such a Lane and Bligh. A Bayesian model is needed for two reasons. First, there is a large overlap in cases that failed and survived. Second, the evidence of the failed cases is limited .The model consists of a...

Integral Failure Analysis of Pipelines in Flood Defenses

The presence of pipelines in flood defenses presents a challenge for assessing the probability of flooding. To prevent costly structural measures compensating for the possible negative effects of pipeline failure, we developed a framework for an integral failure analysis of pipeline and dike failure. The assessment framework is based on an event...

Long-Stroke Hydraulic Robot Motion Control With Incremental Nonlinear Dynamic Inversion

High precision motion control of hydraulic manipulators is challenging due to the highly nonlinear dynamics and model uncertainties typical for hydraulic actuators. This paper addresses the implementation of a novel sensor-based incremental nonlinear dynamic inversion control technique for a high-precision hydraulic force controller in existence...

The inclusion of model uncertainty: Preliminary examination on how model uncertainties affect frequency lines for water levels

<br/>The transition towards a new risk approach for the Dutch national safety assessment of primary flood defences has been taken as an opportunity to improve the dealings with uncertainties. The probabilistic models for the new safety assessment (WBI2017) not only deal with the natural variability, but also with so-called epistemological...

Model uncertainty of recycled aggregate concrete beams subjected to bending

This paper investigates whether the model uncertainty of reinforced recycled aggregate concrete (RAC) beams subjected to bending differs from that of reinforced natural aggregate concrete (NAC) beams. An introductory remark concerning the importance of the codification of RAC structural design is made and notions concerning model uncertainties...

Risk based flood management of sewer systems

Traditional sewer flood management is often norm-based. An alternative approach is risk-based sewer flood management. In risk-based sewer management it is possible to decide upon which measures to take in a more expedient way; it is possible to judge which measure is the best in reaching the goal of reducing risks due to flooding. A risk is...

Reliability-Based Design of Spatially Variable Undrained Slopes

Spatial variability and model uncertainty are considered the major sources of geotechnical uncertainty. The primary objective of this paper is to provide slope stability investigators with a robust reliability framework that takes into consideration the combined uncertainty of spatial variability and model uncertainty. To achieve this objective,...

Smart Motions: Reducing the effect of parameter uncertainties during feedforward control of a robotic manipulator

The performance of a feedforward controller depends on the accuracy of the internal model used for generating the control action. In this research we focus on the influence of parameter uncertainty on the performance of a feedforward controller. A simulation study is performed on a one and two D.O.F. planar robotic arm to improve the open-loop...

Pursuing the method of multiple working hypotheses for hydrological modeling

Ambiguities in the representation of environmental processes have manifested themselves in a plethora of hydrological models, differing in almost every aspect of their conceptualization and implementation. The current overabundance of models is symptomatic of an insufficient scientific understanding of environmental dynamics at the catchment...

Meten en modellen fase 2, deel C: Naar een 72 uursvoorspelling voor de SVSD: analyse en aanzet van een plan van aanpak

Identification of model uncertainty for control design