Searched for: subject:"Modelling"
(1 - 20 of 25)

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Nikolic, I. (author), Warnier, Martijn (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Chappin, E.J.L. (author), Lukszo, Z. (author), Brazier, F.M. (author), Verbraeck, A. (author), Cvetkovic, M. (author), Palensky, P. (author)
report 2019
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Nikolic, I. (author), Lukszo, Z. (author), Chappin, E.J.L. (author), Warnier, Martijn (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Bots, P.W.G. (author), Brazier, F.M. (author)
report 2019
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Jaxa-Rozen, M. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Bloemendal, J.M. (author)
The modelling of social-ecological systems can provide useful insights into the interaction of social and environmental processes. However, quantitative social-ecological models should acknowledge the complexity and uncertainty of both underlying subsystems. For example, the agent-based models which are increasingly popular for groundwater...
journal article 2019
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van Bruggen, Anne (author), Nikolic, I. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
Coherent responses to important problems such as climate change require involving a multitude of stakeholders in a transformative process leading to development of policy pathways. The process of coming to an agreement on policy pathways requires critical reflection on underlying system conceptualizations and commitment to building capacity...
journal article 2019
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Rostampour, Vahab (author), Jaxa-Rozen, M. (author), Bloemendal, J.M. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Keviczky, T. (author)
Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) is a building technology used to seasonally store thermal energy in the subsurface, which can reduce the energy use of larger buildings by more than half. The spatial layout of ATES systems is a key aspect for the technology, as thermal interactions between neighboring systems can degrade system performance....
journal article 2019
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van Berchum, E.C. (author), Mobley, William (author), Jonkman, Sebastiaan N. (author), Timmermans, Johannes S. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Brody, S.D. (author)
Large, complex coastal regions often require a combination of interventions to lower the risk of flooding to an acceptable level. In practice, a limited number of strategies are considered and interdependencies between interventions are often simplified. This paper presents the Multiple Lines of Defence Optimization System (MODOS)‐model. This...
journal article 2018
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Jaxa-Rozen, M. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
Methods for testing and analyzing agent-based models have drawn increasing attention in the literature, in the context of efforts to establish standard frameworks for the development and documentation of models. This process can benefit from the use of established software environments for data analysis and visualization. For instance, the...
journal article 2018
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
There is a growing interest in model-based decision support under deep uncertainty, reflected in a variety of approaches being put forward in the literature. A key idea shared among these is the use of models for exploratory rather than predictive purposes. Exploratory modeling aims at exploring the implications for decision making of the...
journal article 2017
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Cunningham, S. (author)
Scenario discovery is a model-based approach to scenario development under deep uncertainty. Scenario discovery relies on the use of statistical machine learning algorithms. The most frequently used algorithm is the Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM). This algorithm identifies regions in an uncertain model input space that are highly...
journal article 2016
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Auping, W.L. (author), Pruyt, E. (author), de Jong, Sijbren (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
While the shale revolution was largely a US’ affair, it affects the global energy system. In this paper, we look at the effects of this spectacular increase in natural gas, and oil, extraction capacity can have on the mix of primary energy sources, on energy prices, and through that on internal political stability of rentier states. We use...
journal article 2016
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Greeven, Sebastiaan (author), Kraan, O.D.E. (author), Chappin, E.J.L. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
Developing model-based narratives of society’s response to climate change is challenged by two factors. First, society’s response to possible future climate change is subject to many uncertainties. Second, we argue that society’s mitigation action emerge out of the actions and interactions of the many actors in society. Together, these two...
journal article 2016
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Holtz, G. (author), Alkemade, F. (author), De Haan, F. (author), Köhler, J. (author), Trutnevyte, E. (author), Luthe, T. (author), Halbe, J. (author), Papachristos, G. (author), Chappin, E. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Ruutu, S. (author)
Societal transitions involve multiple actors, changes in institutions, values and technologies, and interactions across multiple sectors and scales. Given this complexity, this paper takes on the view that the societal transitions research field would benefit from the further maturation and broader uptake of modelling approaches. This paper...
journal article 2015
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Walker, W.E. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
There is increasing interest in long-term plans that can adapt to changing situations under conditions of deep uncertainty. We argue that a sustainable plan should not only achieve economic, environmental, and social objectives, but should be robust and able to be adapted over time to (unforeseen) future conditions. Large numbers of papers...
journal article 2013
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Keijser, B.M.J. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Pruyt, E. (author)
Formal Model Analysis (FMA) covers a group of methods and techniques to study structurebehaviour relations in best-estimate models. That is, FMA aims to identify the structural causes for the particular dynamics of a single best-estimate model. Under deep uncertainty, the notion of a best-estimate model is however troublesome. Then Exploratory...
conference paper 2012
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Slinger, J.H. (author)
Coastal communities dependent upon groundwater resources for drinking water and irrigation are vulnerable to salinization of the groundwater reserve. The increasing uncertainty associated with changing climatic conditions, population and economic development, and technological advances poses significant challenges for freshwater management. The...
conference paper 2012
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Hamarat, C. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Pruyt, E. (author)
The recent flu pandemic in 2009 caused a panic about the possible consequences due to deep uncertainty about an unknown virus. Overstock of vaccines or unnecessary social measures to be taken were all due to uncertainty. However, what should be the necessary actions to take in such deeply uncertain situation where there is no or very little...
conference paper 2012
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Pruyt, E. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
Integrated risk-capability analysis methodologies for dealing with increasing degrees of complexity and deep uncertainty are urgently needed in an ever more complex and uncertain world. Although scenario approaches, risk assessment methods, and capability analysis methods are used, few organizations and nations use truly integrated risk...
conference paper 2012
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Timmermans, J.S. (author)
Rockström et al. (2009) introduced the concept of a safe operating space for humanity that will not push the planet out of the ‘Holocene state’. These limits are being investigated for various earth bound systems. Estimates of these limits are plagued by uncertainty. In case of the limits to the world water system, these uncertainties arise out...
conference paper 2012
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Timmermans, J.S. (author)
Safe operating space for human activities that will not push the planet out of the ‘Holocene state’ that has seen human civilizations arise, develop, and thrive can be defined with respect to among others global freshwater use. Establishing such limits is a methodological challenge because they are critically depended on local conditions, the...
conference paper 2012
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author)
Sustainable water management in a changing environment full of uncertainty is a profound challenge. To deal with uncertainties, dynamic adaptive policies can be used. Such policies can change over time in response to how the future unfolds, to what we learn about the system, to changes in environment, and to changes in societal preferences. This...
conference paper 2012
Searched for: subject:"Modelling"
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