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Karkhaneh, A. (author)Decision-making for flood defense while facing a considerable change in driving forces demands other methods than the traditional approach of forecasting and optimal policy selection. Exploratory modeling can be a candidate for helping adaptive policymaking to deal with the uncertainties that confront decision-makers. In adaptive policymaking...master thesis 2011
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Walker, W.E. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)There is increasing interest in long-term plans that can adapt to changing situations under conditions of deep uncertainty. We argue that a sustainable plan should not only achieve economic, environmental, and social objectives, but should be robust and able to be adapted over time to (unforeseen) future conditions. Large numbers of papers...journal article 2013
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Walker, W.E. (author)Much policy advice is formulated implicitly assuming that the future can be predicted. A static policy is developed using a single ‘most likely’ future, often based on the extrapolation of trends; or a static ‘robust’ policy is developed that will produce acceptable outcomes in a range of plausible future worlds. However, if the future turns out...journal article 2015
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Jaxa-Rozen, M. (author), Bloemendal, Martin (author), Rostampour, Vahab (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) can yield significant reductions in the energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of larger buildings, and the use of these systems has been rapidly growing in Europe – especially in the Netherlands, where over 3000 systems are currently active in urban areas. However, the successful management of this...conference paper 2016
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author), Walker, W.E. (author)A variety of model-based approaches for supporting decision-making under deep uncertainty have been suggested, but they are rarely compared and contrasted. In this paper, we compare Robust Decision-Making with Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. We apply both to a hypothetical case inspired by a river reach in the Rhine Delta of the Netherlands...journal article 2016
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Cunningham, S. (author)Scenario discovery is a model-based approach to scenario development under deep uncertainty. Scenario discovery relies on the use of statistical machine learning algorithms. The most frequently used algorithm is the Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM). This algorithm identifies regions in an uncertain model input space that are highly...journal article 2016
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author)There is a growing interest in model-based decision support under deep uncertainty, reflected in a variety of approaches being put forward in the literature. A key idea shared among these is the use of models for exploratory rather than predictive purposes. Exploratory modeling aims at exploring the implications for decision making of the...journal article 2017
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Eker, S. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)Many-Objective Robust Decision Making (MORDM) is a prominent model-based approach for dealing with deep uncertainty. MORDM has four phases: a systems analytical problem formulation, a search phase to generate candidate solutions, a trade-off analysis where different strategies are compared across many objectives, and a scenario discovery...journal article 2018
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Bartholomew, Erin (author)Methods for decision support in the context of deep uncertainty have been gaining interest in the context of complex and adaptive problems that are characterized by “tipping point” behaviours. Unlike a traditional “predict-then-act” methods, which determine policies based on specific predictions of future behaviour, these decision support...master thesis 2018
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Auping, Willem L. (author)Simulation models are increasingly used for exploring the consequences of deep uncertainty in complex societal issues. The complexity of societal grand challenges, often characterised by the interrelatedness of different elements in the systems underlying these challenges, often renders mental simulation impossible, necessitating the use of...doctoral thesis 2018
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Ciullo, A. (author), de Bruijn, Karin M. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Klijn, F. (author)Most alluvial plains in the world are protected by flood defences, for example, embankments, whose primary aim is to reduce the probability of flooding of the protected areas. At the same time, however, the presence of embankments at one area influences hydraulic conditions of downstream areas located on the same river. These hydraulic...journal article 2019
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van den Broek, Hidde (author)Flood risk management is the process of analysing, assessing and (if required) reducing flood risks, in terms of economic costs and affected population or loss of life. The analysis is performed through a probabilistic approach in which the factors are represented by a probability distribution function to address uncertainties. However, relevant...master thesis 2019
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Gross, Shannon (author)Policymakers who work in the public health sector may rely on the help of quantitative models to support their choice of control strategy against a particular infectious disease. While policymakers have a large number of decision support models to choose from, hardly any of these tools are used to design an intervention strategy that can work...master thesis 2019
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Bartholomew, Erin (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)In recent years, a family of approaches has emerged for supporting decision-making on complex environmental problems characterized by deep uncertainties and competing priorities. Many-Objective Robust Decision Making (MORDM), Multi-scenario MORDM and. Many-Objective Robust Optimization (MORO) differ with respect to the degree to which...journal article 2020
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Timmermans, Jos (author), van Druten, Emiel (author), Wauben, Marcel (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)In designing and retrofitting infrastructure systems, engineers are increasingly confronted by uncertainties about the future operating conditions of these systems, stemming from climate change or rapid socio-economic development. Particularly for long-lived capital-intensive infrastructure components like pumping stations, current...journal article 2020
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Terun, Kaan (author)The International Maritime Organization forecasts that greenhouse gasses produced by ships will increase rapidly in the near future, unless precautions are taken now. This will require all ships to reduce their emissions, especially container vessels which are producing the most emissions. One way of reducing emissions, with existing technology,...master thesis 2020
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Shavazipour, Babooshka (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Miettinen, Kaisa (author)This paper proposes a novel optimization approach for multi-scenario multi-objective robust decision making, as well as an alternative way for scenario discovery and identifying vulnerable scenarios even before any solution generation. To demonstrate and test the novel approach, we use the classic shallow lake problem. We compare the results...journal article 2021
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Schoemaker, Benjamin (author)Following the Paris Agreement, the national government of the Netherlands reached the Climate Agreement together with more than 100 organizations. As part of this agreement, the industry sector is faced with the ambitious goal of 59% CO2 reduction in 2030 with respect to 1990 levels. Since the naphtha cracking industry is one of the most...master thesis 2021
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van Baarle, Ilmo (author)Covid-19 has proven how uncertain the future can be. However, traffic models fail to fully acknowledge this uncertainty. Therefore, decisions made based on these models are not very robust. In this research, Robust Decision Making (RDM) method is applied on a macro-level traffic model made for the municipality of Groningen. This method,...master thesis 2021
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Willems, Douwe (author)For centuries humanity has been engineering the second largest river system in the Netherlands, the river Meuse system. This resulted in improvements for the shipping and water safety functions, but simultaneously has had a negative impact on other functions of the river Meuse system. Nature and water quality, for example, degraded due to the...master thesis 2021
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