Model-Driven representation of the Infrarium Serious Game: From the Network of Puzzles concept to the Unified Modelling Language notation

Serious Games can be used for many purposes, including studying complex, socio-technical systems. They are claimed to provide new opportunities by bringing different knowledge and fields of expertise to the table. Combined with simulations that allow for observation of the evolving infrastructure under deeply uncertain conditions, they have the...

How We Change Our Minds Matters: Misinformation, ABMs, and Deep Uncertainty

Misinformation on social media is an urgent grand challenge. Misinformation has caused excess deaths because people abstain from getting vaccinated and other evidence-based prevention behaviors. Misinformation also influences various other important topics such as climate change. And it has the potential to influence countless other areas. In...

Accounting for distributive justice in Integrated Assessment Models: Towards a more equitable climate policy agenda

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are widely used tools for estimating climate change's impacts on the socio-economic system. However, IAMs possess a limited ability to represent the impact on vulnerable populations. Influential IAMs use highly aggregated outcomes masking significant relative differences in impacts across heterogeneous...

A dependent sampling approach to Scenario Discovery

The use of scenario planning has a long history in decision-making and public policy (Bryant and Lempert, 2010). Traditional scenario planning, as, for example, used by the Shell Scenarios group, provides tools to communicate and characterize uncertainty,allowing decision-makers to anticipate the future and create more robust strategies ...

Uncertainty in Long-Term Grid Planning: Approaching Transmission Expansion Planning through the Framework of Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

Motivations for sustainability are initiating an energy transition that is changing the European energy domain. The transition effectuated the adaptation of large volumes of wind and solar based generation capacity. The intermittent power-output of these Variable Renewable Energy Sources challenges the balancing operation of the electricity...

Redefining Integrated Assessment Models: An Exploratory Approach Towards Robust Climate-Economic Policies

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are aiming to shed light on the cost-benefit of climate mitigations. However, current IAMs are depicted with a wide range of weaknesses. Next, to questionable assumptions of model functions, such as the damage function, IAMs are inadequate at addressing deeply uncertain parameters, such as the equilibrium...

Modelling Uncertainty: Developing and Using Simulation Models for Exploring the Consequences of Deep Uncertainty in Complex Problems

Simulation models are increasingly used for exploring the consequences of deep uncertainty in complex societal issues. The complexity of societal grand challenges, often characterised by the interrelatedness of different elements in the systems underlying these challenges, often renders mental simulation impossible, necessitating the use of...

Nile Basin Scenario Construction

The Nile river traverses eleven countries in Africa. It is the source of life for millions of people and its aquifers, tributaries, lakes, and surface waters provide valuable nature (wetlands), drinking water, hydropower and it provides large areas of arid soils with irrigation water. Rapid urbanization, overexploitation and the construction of...

Coupling Nile Basin 2050 scenarios with the IPCC 2100 projections for climate-induced risk reduction

Scenarios are valuable tools that could support decision making under deep uncertainty, nevertheless, their potential remains untapped. The paper explores whether participatory scenario construction in the form of stories coupled with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2100 projections may contribute to increased utility of...

MAFURIKO: Design of Nzoia Basin location based flood game

Every 2 to 7 years, Kenya experiences a reoccurrence of El-Niño rains leading to loss of life and massive damage to property. The 1997/98 El-Niño floods affected 1.5 million persons and led to an estimated USD 1.2 billion infrastructural damage, USD 236 million agricultural damage and USD 9 million on other losses (property, soil erosion,...

WeShareIt game: Strategic foresight for climate-change induced disaster risk reduction

Nile Basin policy makers, at all levels, are constantly making quick decisions to address emergencies. The decisions are made in the context of a complex, uncertain, ever-changing and highly volatile basin. However, for these decisions to take into account future uncertainties, like climate-change induced disasters, policy makers need to...

LPG Terminal Hotspot Identification - The application of Scenario Discovery to a forecast model

Vopak is the world largest independent tank storage provider, specialized in storing liquid chemicals, gasses & oil products and is active in 29 countries. For the storage of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), a global strategy was constructed in 2010, in which LPG terminal opportunities have been identified and which is now out of date. The problem...

Business Process Simulation Under Deep Uncertainty: Cas study at ING Arrears Management

Organizations are in ever changing environments which results in the need for constant adaptation of business processes and structures. Continuous business process improvements can result in cost savings as well as higher efficiency and effectiveness. In some cases business process improvements can be realized through experience and competent...

Demographic aging and its implications for the Dutch welfare state: An Exploratory System Dynamics approach

This research focuses on the effects demographic aging has on the welfare state in The Netherlands. It aims on providing an overview of the welfare state system and analyzing this system taking into account deep uncertainty that exists within the system. This is done by using a combination of Exploratory System Dynamics and Exploratory Modeling...