"uuid","repository link","title","author","contributor","publication year","abstract","subject topic","language","publication type","publisher","isbn","issn","patent","patent status","bibliographic note","access restriction","embargo date","faculty","department","research group","programme","project","coordinates"
"uuid:ca535619-5459-4345-adf4-8c768c6934f6","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:ca535619-5459-4345-adf4-8c768c6934f6","Navigating complexity: agent-based simulations for climate-resilient economies","Taberna, A. (TU Delft Policy Analysis)","Filatova, T. (promotor); Nikolic, I. (promotor); Delft University of Technology (degree granting institution)","2024","Amid the Anthropocene, the escalating threat of flooding, driven by extreme rainfall and sea-level rise, challenges societies worldwide. In the last two decades, floods have impacted billions and inflicted colossal economic losses. Concurrently, the global trend towards urbanization predicts that by 2050, about 70\% of the global population will inhabit urban areas. This demographic trend, heavily influenced by agglomeration forces, further underscores the vulnerability of these urban centers, many of which are precariously situated in flood-prone areas. Given the confluence of escalating climate risks and the surge in populations settling in vulnerable zones, a pressing question emerges: How will rapidly urbanizing coastal societies adapt to intensifying flood risks in the face of escalating climate-induced shocks and changing regional economic landscapes?
To address this multifaceted issue, this dissertation delves into the complex nexus between climate shocks, regional economic dynamics, and societal responses. Central to this exploration is the creation of innovative simulation tools tailored to incorporate the autonomous adaptation strategies of various actors within a regional economic framework. This thesis stands at the forefront of a new wave of computational models that encompass risk and embed resilience into complex adaptive systems.
I commence by examining the current advancements and gaps in employing Agent-Based Models to unravel the dynamics of flood risk and adaptation assessments. In this exploration, I underscore the pivotal role of human actions in shaping risks and resilience within flood-prone urban settings.
Building on this foundation, I introduce the Climate-Economy Regional Agent-Based (CRAB) model. The CRAB model employs an evolutionary perspective to provide a comprehensive view of the balances struck between the driving forces of economic agglomeration and the counteracting pressures of climate hazards. It focuses on the decision-making of heterogeneous agents, representing households and firms, as they navigate the choice of relocation between safer inland regions and hazard-exposed coastal zones.
Venturing further, I enhance the CRAB model to embody autonomous household adaptation behaviors, drawing from empirical data. Here, I challenge the traditional reliance on rational agents in sustainability models, unveiling a notable adaptation deficit when juxtaposed against boundedly-rational choices gleaned from real-world surveys. This nuanced exploration uncovers how varied adaptive capacities can potentially accentuate inequality and impede resilience.
Subsequently, I include in the CRAB model a layered risk strategy that encompasses an array of climate change adaptation measures. This refined model, enriched by extensive behavioral and flood data, bridges existing gaps in the current understanding of feedback loops and cascading effects triggered by flood shocks within a socio-economic system of boundedly-rational agents.
In conclusion, this dissertation pioneers a unique trajectory in understanding societal responses to the specter of flooding, offering invaluable insights and frameworks for devising future climate-resilient strategies.","Agent-based models,; resilience; flood risk; agglomeration forces; survey; climate change adaptation; distributional impacts; path dependency","en","doctoral thesis","","978-90-361-0736-5","","","","","","","","","Policy Analysis","","",""
"uuid:5f21aff9-85e5-435e-8402-704263064e66","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:5f21aff9-85e5-435e-8402-704263064e66","Channel response of an engineered river to climate change and human intervention","Ylla Arbos, C. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering)","Blom, A. (promotor); Schielen, R.M.J. (copromotor); Delft University of Technology (degree granting institution)","2024","Humans have intervened in rivers for centuries. River engineering measures have aimed at protecting populations against flooding, ensuring reliable and safe navigation, providing freshwater for drinking, domestic and industrial use, irrigation, and energy supply, and providing opportunities for recreation. All around the world, measures such as channelization (i.e., channel narrowing and shortening), dam construction, or channel diversion have allowed for the proliferation of human settlements, technological progress, and an improved quality of life.
Despite the various socio-economic benefits of human intervention in rivers, engineering measures have side effects, often unaccounted for, or simply unknown before they manifest. This is because, by modifying the channel characteristics (geometry, planform, size of the bed surface sediment), or its controls (water discharge, sediment supply, base level), engineering measures alter the equilibrium state of a river. In response, rivers adjust toward the new equilibrium state through bed incision or aggradation, changes in channel width or sinuosity, or changes in the bed surface grain size distribution. This response may extend over hundreds of kilometers, and develop during decades to centuries....","rivers; channel adjustment; climate change; human intervention; Rhine","en","doctoral thesis","","978-94-6366-808-8","","","","","","","","","Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering","","",""
"uuid:a16f8f3f-6dd2-4700-89d1-93c89a65aee8","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:a16f8f3f-6dd2-4700-89d1-93c89a65aee8","Developing a Model to Study the Climate Change Impact on River Bifurcations in Engineered Rivers","Chowdhury, M. Kifayath (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering); Blom, A. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering); Ylla Arbos, C. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering); Schielen, R.M.J. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering; Rijkswaterstaat)","","2024","Climate change is responsible for global shifts in precipitation patterns and an overall in-crease in global temperatures. The transi-tions are anticipated to modify the river hydro-graph and sea level. The changes to the hy-drograph are also likely to influence sediment flux. These alterations imply shifts in both up-stream and downstream boundaries for river bifurcations. However, the resulting bifurca-tion response remains uncertain and warrants further investigation. Our objective is to un-derstand the extent of large-scale and long-term response of river bifurcations to climate change. We take the Upper Dutch Rhine bifur-cation region as our case study and develop a 1D hydro-morphodynamic model representing the system to achieve this goal.","river bifurcation; Rhine River; climate change; long term morphological change; Pannerdense Kop","en","abstract","","","","","","","","","","","Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering","","",""
"uuid:629471af-0673-44b0-95ac-10c269f46c67","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:629471af-0673-44b0-95ac-10c269f46c67","Using an idealized network model as the physical module for a salt intrusion serious game","den Haan, Robert-Jan (University of Twente); Biemond, Bouke (Universiteit Utrecht); Baart, F. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering; Deltares)","","2024","Salt intrusion is a growing problem in many deltas around the world. During periods with low river discharges, salinity upstream in a delta increases and affects freshwater availability, ecology, and other delta functions. For example, in the Rhine-Meuse estuary (the Netherlands), brackish water can reach drinking water intakes about 40 km from the estuary mouth during droughts. Salt intrusion is likely to become more severe in the context of climate change, as a result of sea level rise and a lower river discharge during droughts.
The challenges with salt intrusion for the Netherlands are addressed in the Salti Solutions research program. Within this program the Delta Management Game offers an interactive environment where policy-making stakeholders can experience salt intrusion management and experiment with adaptation and mitigation strategies in the Rhine-Meuse estuary. As a serious game, the goal is for players to “learn by taking actions and by experiencing their effects through feedback mechanisms that are deliberately built into and around the game” (Mayer, 2009, p. 825).
A particular design challenge for serious games is simplifying the environmental system and sufficiently representing the relevant physics, while offering exploratory and experimentation through (near-)instant, interactive feedback. The physical module for salt intrusion in the Delta Management Game should be able to deal with, among others, changes in bathymetry (e.g. depth or width of waterways, adding a sill) of the estuary in the game, while offering relatively quick feedback.","Idealized modelling; Serious game; Salt intrusion; Climate change","en","abstract","","","","","","","","","","","Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering","","",""
"uuid:810a8c53-abc8-4893-b114-abee5715073d","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:810a8c53-abc8-4893-b114-abee5715073d","The climate barge: Heritage and climate adaptation in the Dutch province of South-Holland","Mostert, E. (TU Delft Water Resources)","","2024","In the project Heritage uncovered; Tow barge canals in a water management context, the future value of tow barge canals for climate adaptation has been studied. The project focused on the area between the cities Leiden, The Hague, Delft, Rotterdam and Gouda, with a surface area of km2, and the tow barge canals the Vliet, the Schie, the Gouwe and the Old Rhine. Until 900 CE the areas was mostly peat swamp. Since then, it has been drained for agriculture. This has resulted in economic growth and the development of cities in the 13th Century. A side effect of drainage was land subsidence. In addition, peat was mined to supply the cities with fuel. To limit waterlogging, large drainage canals were dug, such as the Vliet and the Schie. In the 17th Century, many of these were modified to function as tow barge canals connecting the major cities.
It is expected that the water management challenges in the area will increase as a result of climate change. According to the climate scenarios for 2100 of the Royal Meteorological Institute, both heavy rainstorms and periods without any rainfall will become more common. On top of this, there are plans to build many new houses.
To prevent an increase in flood and drought problems, more temporary water storage can be created, but no less than 34 mln m3 of additional storage would be needed. 7.5 mln m3 additional storage can be created in the different polders, primarily to cope with peak rainfall events, while east of the town of Zoetermeer a new lake with 26.5 mln m3 of temporary storage can be created to supply water in drought periods, called the Bent lake (Bentmeer). Assuming 2 m difference between the highest and the lowest water level, the Bent lake would need to have a surface area of 13.3 km2. It can offer excellent opportunities for recreation and nature.
To transport water in and out of the Bent lake, a connection to the Rotte river in the south and the Old Rhine (Oude Rijn) in the north has to be made. This would restore an old shipping route. For the connection to the Old Rhine three options have been explored and for one of these a spatial plan has been made. In this option the Bent lake is connected to the existing Benthuizer canal (Benthuizervaart) and the Benthuizer canal is connected via a new canal to the existing Hoogeveense canal (Hoogeveense vaart), (see figures 15 and 16). Along parts of the new canal futuristic “green” appartements will be built with a view either on the canal or over the surrounding polders. To limit height differences for boating, the new canal will be constructed above the level of the polder. The new apartment buildings along the canal will also be built at a higher level, which will make them less vulnerable to flooding (see figure 1).
In all options the old tow barge canals are essential for transporting water to and from the Bent lake and discharging excess water onto the main rivers and the North Sea. In addition, they are a good entry point for telling the history of the landscape and reflecting on possible futures. It is proposed to construct a tow path along the new canal and make a replica of an original tow barge. This barge will be called the “Climate Barge” (Klimaatschuit) and can be used as a floating exhibition space and a location for future discussions.
The proposals in this report have not yet been developed in detail and the future is still very uncertain. Yet, we cannot wait until there is certainty. If sooner or later large-scale temporary water storage in this part of the country will be needed, space for this has to be reserved quite soon. The costs will be high, but the costs of inaction will be high too. And it offers new opportunities.
In de toekomst zullen de waterproblemen in het gebied toenemen. Naar verwachting zullen in 2100 extreme regenbuien nog extremer worden en zullen er vaker lange periodes zonder regen zijn. Tegelijkertijd zijn er plannen om veel nieuwe huizen te bouwen. Dit alles kan leiden tot veel meer wateroverlast en grotere droogteproblemen.
In dit project is gekeken of extra tijdelijke waterberging een oplossing kan bieden voor deze problemen. Dat is zo, maar dan is er wel 34 miljoen m3 aan extra berging nodig. Voorgesteld wordt om in de verschillende polders 7,5 miljoen m3 aan nieuwe waterberging aan te leggen, vooral voor de opvang van piekbuien, en daarnaast ten oosten van Zoetermeer een Bentmeer aan te leggen met 26,5 miljoen m3 waterberging als extra bron van zoetwater tijdens droogtes. Uitgaande van twee meter verschil tussen het hoogste en het laagste waterpeil, zal het Bentmeer een oppervlakte moeten krijgen van 13,3 km2. Dit biedt uitgelezen kansen voor recreatie en natuurontwikkeling.
Om het water het Bentmeer in en uit te krijgen, zal een verbinding aangelegd moeten worden met de Rotte in het zuiden en de Oude Rijn in het noorden. Hierdoor zou een oude scheepvaartverbinding tussen de Rotte en de Oude Rijn hersteld worden. Voor de verbinding met de Oude Rijn zijn drie opties bekeken. Voor één van deze opties is een ruimtelijk schetsontwerp gemaakt. In deze optie wordt het Bentmeer verbonden met de Benthuizervaart en wordt de Benthuizervaart via een nieuw te graven vaart verbonden met de huidige Hoogeveense vaart. Deze laatste staat in verbinding met de Oude Rijn (zie de figuren 15 en 16). Langs een deel van denieuwe vaart zullen futuristische “groene” appartementen aangelegd worden met uitzicht over de polder of de vaart. Om de hoogteverschillen voor de scheepvaart niet te groot te maken, kan de Hoogeveense vaart verhoogd aangelegd worden. De appartementsgebouwen langs de vaart kunnen dan ook hoger aangelegd worden, wat ze minder kwetsbaar maakt bij overstromingen.
In alle drie de opties spelen de trekvaarten een essentiële rol voor het transport van water uit en naar het Bentmeer en voor het lozen van overtollig water uit het hele gebied op de Nieuwe Waterweg en de Noordzee. Daarnaast zijn de trekvaarten een goede insteek om de geschiedenis van het landschap te vertellen en te reflecteren op mogelijke toekomsten. Om die reden wordt voorgesteld om langs de nieuwe vaart een jaagpad aan te leggen zodat er met een trekschuit – de “Klimaatschuit” – op gevaren kan worden. Deze kan dienen als varende tentoonstellingsruimte en als locatie voor toekomstdiscussies.
De voorstellen in dit rapport zijn nog niet in detail uitgewerkt en de toekomst is onzeker. Wij kunnen echter niet wachten totdat er zekerheid is. Als we vroeg of laat grootschalige waterberging in Zuid-Holland nodig hebben, moeten we daar nu al over nadenken en snel ruimte reserveren. De kosten zullen hoog zijn, maar de kosten van inactie kunnen nog hoger zijn. Bovendien liggen er ook nieuwe kansen.","Climate change; Water management; heritage; Netherlands; polders; adaptation; tow barge canals","nl","report","Delft University of Technology","","","","","English translation available","","","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:fa63b1ff-5604-4826-adfe-3a4624dad27e","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:fa63b1ff-5604-4826-adfe-3a4624dad27e","Designing for a Flow: Navigating Temporalities in Housing Considerations in Low-Income and Hazard-Prone Caribbean Contexts","Kuś, A.M. (TU Delft Architectural Technology; Royal Netherlands Institute of Southeast Asian and Caribbean Studies); Mota, Nelson (TU Delft Space & Type); van Bueren, Ellen (TU Delft Management in the Built Environment); Carmona Báez, Antonio (University of St. Martin); Asselbergs, M.F. (TU Delft Architectural Technology)","","2024","The urgency of addressing housing challenges in low-income areas is increasing due to widening socio-economic inequalities and the worsening impact of natural disasters. Saint Martin, a small Caribbean island, is struggling to provide affordable housing amidst hurricanes, floods, and heat waves. As a result, there has been a rise in self-organized housing units, which are built incrementally and are susceptible to risks. The main challenge is to balance durability, functionality, and esthetic appeal over time. Inspired by St. Martin’s self-organized units, this article explores housing considerations in low-income, hazard-prone contexts by emphasizing their temporalities. Integrating insights from a formative study, including a literature review and ethnographic research, the paper draws on Stewart Brand’s “Layers of Change” and the concept of “Flow”. The study identifies layers within self-organized units corresponding to durability, functionality, and esthetic appeal. It delves into their connection with building activities over time, unveiling the temporalities of housing considerations. This exploration leads to the proposition of “Designing for a Flow” as a novel design approach. Offering practical insights within a concise framework, the study provides nuanced perspectives on mitigating housing challenges in low-income and hazard-prone contexts.","incremental housing; low-income housing; resilient design; climate change; extreme weather; layers of change; Stewart Brand; sustainability","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","Management in the Built Environment","Architectural Technology","","",""
"uuid:68dd0f90-d594-4239-b18d-43e3bf48cbde","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:68dd0f90-d594-4239-b18d-43e3bf48cbde","Sea-level rise induced change in exposure of low-lying coastal land: implications for coastal conservation strategies","Thiéblemont, Rémi (Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM)); le Cozannet, Gonéri (Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM)); Rohmer, Jérémy (Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM)); Privat, Adrien (Conservatoire du littoral); Guidez, Romain (Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM)); Negulescu, Caterina (Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM)); Philippenko, Xénia (Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM)); Luijendijk, Arjen (TU Delft Coastal Engineering; Deltares); Calkoen, F.R. (TU Delft Coastal Engineering; Deltares); Nicholls, Robert J. (University of East Anglia)","","2024","Coastal erosion and flooding are projected to increase during the 21st century due to sea-level rise (SLR). To prevent adverse impacts of unmanaged coastal development, national organizations can apply a land protection policy, which consists of acquiring coastal land to avoid further development. Yet, these reserved areas remain exposed to flooding and erosion enhanced by SLR. Here, we quantify the exposure of the coastal land heritage portfolio of the French Conservatoire du littoral (Cdl). We find that 30% (~40%) of the Cdl lands owned (projected to be owned) are located below the contemporary highest tide level. Nearly 10% additional surface exposure is projected by 2100 under the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5) and 2150 for the moderate scenario (SSP2-4.5). The increase in exposure is largest along the West Mediterranean coast of France. We also find that Cdl land exposure increases more rapidly for SLR in the range of 0–1 m than for SLR in the range 2–4 m. Thus, near-future uncertainty on SLR has the largest impact on Cdl land exposure evolution and related land acquisition planning. Concerning erosion, we find that nearly 1% of Cdl land could be lost in 2100 if observed historical trends continue. Adding the SLR effect could lead to more than 3% land loss. Our study confirms previous findings that Cdl needs to consider land losses due to SLR in its land acquisition strategy and start acquiring land farther from the coast.","Climate change; Coastal conservation agency; Coastal hazards; Sea-level rise; Shoreline","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Coastal Engineering","","",""
"uuid:0ed7fb06-8e1c-4c52-b809-d32b0191c1da","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:0ed7fb06-8e1c-4c52-b809-d32b0191c1da","On the impact of decision rule assumptions in experimental designs on preference recovery: An application to climate change adaptation measures","van Cranenburgh, S. (TU Delft Transport and Logistics); Meyerhoff, Jürgen (Hochschule für Wirtschaft und Recht Berlin); Rehdanz, Katrin (Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel); Wunsch, Andrea (Kiel Institute for the World Economy)","","2024","Efficient experimental designs aim to maximise the information obtained from stated choice data to estimate discrete choice models' parameters statistically efficiently. Almost without exception efficient experimental designs assume that decision-makers use a Random Utility Maximisation (RUM) decision rule. When using such designs, researchers (implicitly) assume that the decision rule used to generate the design has no impact on respondents' choice behaviour. This study investigates whether the decision rule assumption underlying an experimental design affects respondents' choice behaviour. We use four stated choice experiments on coastal adaptation to climate change: Two are based on experimental designs optimised for utility maximisation and two are based on experimental designs optimised for a mixture of RUM and Random Regret Minimisation (RRM). Generally, we find that respondents place value on adaptation measures (e.g., dykes and beach nourishments). We evaluate the models' fits and investigate whether some choice tasks particularly invoke RUM or RRM decision rules. For the latter, we develop a new sampling-based approach that avoids the confounding between preference and decision rule heterogeneity. We find no evidence that RUM-optimised designs invoke RUM-consistent choice behaviour. However, we find a relationship between some of the attributes and decision rules, and compelling evidence that some choice tasks invoke RUM consistent behaviour while others invoke RRM consistent behaviour. This implies that respondents’ choice behaviour and choice modelling outcomes are not exogenous to the choice tasks, which can be particularly critical when information on preferences is used to inform actual decision-making on a sensitive issue of common interest as climate change.","Climate change; Coastal adaptation; Decision rules; Experimental design theory; Random regret minimisation","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Transport and Logistics","","",""
"uuid:188f5611-d9ec-44f6-9b08-e847f8e351ae","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:188f5611-d9ec-44f6-9b08-e847f8e351ae","Economy-wide impacts of socio-politically driven net-zero energy systems in europe","Mayer, Jakob (Karl-Franzens-Universitat Graz); Süsser, Diana (Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies; Institute for European Energy and Climate Policy); Pickering, Bryn (ETH Zürich); Bachner, Gabriel (Karl-Franzens-Universitat Graz); Sanvito, F.D. (TU Delft Energie and Industrie)","","2024","Net-zero energy system configurations can be met in numerous ways, implying diverse economic effects. However, what is usually ignored in techno-economic and economy-wide analysis are the distinct social-political drivers and barriers, which might constrain certain elements of future energy systems. We thus apply a model ensemble that defines social-political storylines which constrain feasible net-zero configurations of the European energy system. Using these configurations in a macroeconomic general equilibrium model allows us to explore economy-wide effects and ultimately the cost-effectiveness of different systems. We find that social-political storylines provide valuable boundary conditions for feasible net-zero designs of the energy system and that the costliest energy sector configuration in fact leads to the highest European-wide welfare levels. This result originates in indirect effects, particularly positive employment effects, covered by the macroeconomic model. However, adverse public budget effects on the transition to net-zero energy may limit the willingness of policymakers who focus on shorter time-horizons to foster such a development. Our results highlight the relevance of considering the interaction of energy system-changes with labor, emission allowance and capital markets, as well as considering long-term perspectives.","Climate change mitigation; Computable general equilibrium; Cost-effectiveness; Energy system design; Social-political storylines","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Energie and Industrie","","",""
"uuid:eb309ec5-ef4f-4136-be44-fffde25b3506","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:eb309ec5-ef4f-4136-be44-fffde25b3506","User experience of wearing comfort of reusable versus disposable surgical gowns and environmental perspectives: A cross-sectional survey","van Nieuwenhuizen, Kim E. (Leiden University Medical Center); Friedericy, Hans J. (Leiden University Medical Center); van der Linden, Sjaak (Leiden University Medical Center); Jansen, F.W. (TU Delft Medical Instruments & Bio-Inspired Technology; Leiden University Medical Center); van der Eijk, A.C. (TU Delft Medical Instruments & Bio-Inspired Technology; Leiden University Medical Center)","","2024","Objective: To determine the user experience of wearing comfort of reusable sterile surgical gowns and compare these gowns with conventional disposable surgical gowns. Design: Cross-sectional survey. Setting: An academic hospital in the Netherlands. Population: Gynaecologists, surgeons, residents and operating room assistants (n=80). Methods: Quantitative and qualitative data were obtained via a written questionnaire. Participants provided subjective comments and scored the reusable gown on each individual topic with a score from 1 to 5 (1 = unsatisfactory, 2 = moderate, 3 = good, 4 = very good, 5 = excellent) and compared the reusable gown with the conventional disposable alternative (better, equal or worse). Main outcome measures: Wearing comfort: ventilation and temperature regulation, fit and length, functionality, barrier function and ease of use. Results: The results of the overall scores of the reusable gown are scored as ‘very good’ (mean 4.3, SD ± 0.5) by its users. Regarding comparison of the gowns, more than 79% (lowest score 79%, highest score 95%) of the participants scored the reusable gown equal or higher on six of seven topics. The topic ‘ease of use’ was scored equal or higher by 59% of the participants. Subjective comments provided information on possible improvements. Conclusions: The findings of this study demonstrate that there is professional acceptance regarding the utilisation of reusable surgical gowns. To facilitate broader adoption, it is imperative to foster collaboration among suppliers and healthcare institutions. The reusable surgical gown is an environmentally sustainable, safe and comfortable alternative in the operating room.","climate change; comfort; operating room; surgery; surgical gowns; sustainability; user experience","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Medical Instruments & Bio-Inspired Technology","","",""
"uuid:bc088cea-5a70-459f-8eb9-e5e6d086379b","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:bc088cea-5a70-459f-8eb9-e5e6d086379b","Towards sustainable groundwater development with effective measures under future climate change in Beijing Plain, China","Liu, S. (TU Delft Water Resources; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education); Zhou, Yangxiao (IHE Delft Institute for Water Education; Hebei University); Eiman, Fatima (IHE Delft Institute for Water Education); McClain, M.E. (TU Delft Water Resources; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education); Wang, Xu sheng (China University of Geosciences)","","2024","To cope with the groundwater depletion problem and achieve sustainable groundwater development, groundwater conservation measures and managed aquifer recharge (MAR) have been implemented worldwide. However, knowledge gaps exit how does the aquifer system respond to these interventions differently and if these interventions are adequate to lead to long-term sustainable groundwater development under future climate change. In Beijing Plain, two measures have been implemented: reduction of groundwater abstraction by substituting groundwater abstraction with transferred surface water and implementation of managed aquifer recharge (MAR) in two major rivers. This study aims to assess how do the shallow and deep aquifers respond to these measures and if these measures can lead to long-term sustainable groundwater development in Beijing Plain under future climate change. A 3-D transient groundwater flow model was calibrated and used to simulate groundwater level and budget changes from 2021 to 2050. The monthly groundwater recharge was estimated using the projected monthly precipitation from three downscaled regional climate models under two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The results show that declines in groundwater head and storage can be reversed with the combined two measures, thereby contributing to achieve sustainable groundwater development. The reduction of abstractions is a deciding measure to reverse the trend of groundwater depletion, especially in the deep confined aquifers, while large scale MAR schemes can restore the cones of depressions in shallow aquifers and maintain the groundwater abstraction. Climate variation has large impacts on groundwater resources, especially, consecutive dry years can cause rapid groundwater storage depletion. The projected monthly precipitation from 2021 to 2050 is not significantly different from the past. Therefore, the projected future precipitation has minor impacts on groundwater resources in the next 30 years. The findings from the study will support the Beijing municipality to maintain the tight control on groundwater abstraction and to implement large-scale MAR schemes in two rivers. This successful example will encourage managers of other heavily exploited aquifers to take similar measures to achieve sustainable groundwater development.","Beijing Plain; Climate change; Groundwater sustainability; Substitution of abstraction, Managed Aquifer Recharge","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:9064fc3d-b39d-49f6-bd9c-64764980661e","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:9064fc3d-b39d-49f6-bd9c-64764980661e","The present and future contribution of ships to the underwater soundscape","Possenti, Luca (NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research); de Nooijer, Lennart (NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research); de Jong, Christ (TNO); Lam, Frans Peter (TNO); Beelen, Simon (University of Twente); Bosschers, Johan (Maritime Research Institute Netherlands (MARIN)); van Terwisga, T.J.C. (TU Delft Ship Hydromechanics and Structures; Maritime Research Institute Netherlands (MARIN)); Stigter, Marinus (TU Delft Fluid Mechanics); Reichart, Gert Jan (NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research; Universiteit Utrecht)","","2024","Since the industrial revolution the ocean has become noisier. The global increase in shipping is one of the main contributors to this. In some regions, shipping contributed to an increase in ambient noise of several decibels, especially at low frequencies (10 to 100 Hz). Such an increase can have a substantial negative impact on fish, invertebrates, marine mammals and birds interfering with key life functions (e.g. foraging, mating, resting, etc.). Consequently, engineers are investigating ways to reduce the noise emitted by vessels when designing new ships. At the same time, since the industrial revolution (starting around 1760) greenhouse gas emissions have increased the atmospheric carbon dioxide fraction x(CO2) by more than 100 μmol mol-1. The ocean uptake of approximately one third of the emitted CO2 decreased the average global surface ocean pH from 8.21 to 8.10. This decrease is modifying sound propagation, especially sound absorption at the frequencies affected by shipping noise lower than 10 kHz, making the future ocean potentially noisier. There are also other climate change effects that may influence sound propagation. Sea surface warming might alter the depth of the deep sound speed channel, ice melting could locally decrease salinity and more frequent storms and higher wind speed alter the depth of the thermocline. In particular, modification of the sound speed profile can lead to the appearance of new ducts making specific depths noisier. In addition, ice melting and the increase in seawater temperature will open new shipping routes at the poles increasing anthropogenic noise in these regions. This review aims to discuss parameters that might change in the coming decades, focusing on the contribution of shipping, climate change and economic and technical developments to the future underwater soundscape in the ocean. Examples are given, contrasting the open ocean and the shallow seas. Apart from the changes in sound propagation, this review will also discuss the effects of water quality on ship-radiated noise with a focus on propeller cavitation noise.","climate change; ocean noise; shipping; soundscape; underwater acoustics","en","review","","","","","","","","","","","Ship Hydromechanics and Structures","","",""
"uuid:2c383e2a-2ac6-4a8b-95ba-41ef163c9382","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:2c383e2a-2ac6-4a8b-95ba-41ef163c9382","Circular economy as crisis response: A primer","Hartley, Kris (City University of Hong Kong); Baldassarre, B.R. (TU Delft Responsible Marketing and Consumer Behavior; Maastricht University School of Business and Economics; Roskilde University); Kirchherr, Julian (Universiteit Utrecht; Roskilde University; Cambridge University Press)","","2024","The early 2020s have been characterized by multiple convergent crises, including the Covid-19 pandemic and economic fallout of mitigation measures, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the ongoing sustainability and climate change crisis. This article discusses how the concept of the circular economy can inform responses to such crises by addressing four elements of a socio-economic system: technological innovation, supply chains and markets, public policy, and consumer behaviour. Synthesizing emerging insights from the scholarly and policymaking arenas, the article identifies the following ways that the circular economy concept can be effectively framed as crisis response: focusing on circularity in a more holistic way, adopting global value chains as the primary unit of analysis, pinpointing specific circularity aspects like drivers and barriers in value chains and business models, and extending the prevailing focus on technical aspects and material flows to often overlooked trade and geopolitical considerations. This discussion aims to articulate lessons for industry, policymakers, and scholars in leveraging a circularity approach to address the world's most pressing issues.","Circular economy; Climate change; Covid-19; Crisis management; Sustainability; Ukraine invasion","en","review","","","","","","","","","","","Responsible Marketing and Consumer Behavior","","",""
"uuid:ffe920c6-f930-4248-94ca-cbc3415e9d82","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:ffe920c6-f930-4248-94ca-cbc3415e9d82","Fluid Soils: (Co)Designing for the Wadden Sea Landscapes","","Cipriani, L. (editor)","2024","The relationship between soil and water is at the center of interest now more than ever. Despite being a UNESCO World Heritage Site of extraordinary environmental value and beauty, the Wadden Sea, its territories, and its people now face an uncertain future while wrestling with latent climatic, economic-productive, and social crises. Subsidence increased by gas extraction and peat oxidation, soil erosion, saltwater intrusion, eutrophication, and agricultural water pollution testify to a territory in the throes of long-term repossession by the sea.
Can we (co)design the Wadden Sea landscapes? How can we transform these emergencies into opportunities? Based upon applied research work in regional scenario-making and local design projects, the book attempts to imagine the present and future of the Wadden Sea and its hinterland adopting (co)designing approaches. Peatlands, agriculture, energy, and heritage all intersect to encourage economies and social inclusion projects where the landscapes of soil and water become the driving force to overcome the crises.","Wadden Sea Landscapes; Water and soil; Landscape co-design; Rural landscapes; Climate change landscapes","en","book","TU Delft OPEN","978-94-6366-823-1","","","","","","","","","Landscape Architecture","","",""
"uuid:efee1e53-d081-4fcb-9a3c-39650de2a13e","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:efee1e53-d081-4fcb-9a3c-39650de2a13e","Precipitation extremes around the world: Unraveling historical extremes and future changes","Gründemann, Gaby J. (TU Delft Water Resources)","van de Giesen, N.C. (promotor); van der Ent, R.J. (copromotor); Delft University of Technology (degree granting institution)","2023","Improved understanding of historical precipitation extremes is important to better explain their behavior, predict future occurrences, and inform planning and engineering design. The intensity, seasonality, and timing of these extremes have far-reaching consequences, and require a comprehensive analysis of both historical trends and projected future changes. By integrating historical observations, statistical methods, and climate model projections, this research provides valuable insights into precipitation extremes on the global domain.","extreme precipitation; extreme value distribution; climate change; seasonality","en","doctoral thesis","","978-94-6473-310-5","","","","","","","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:94f225e8-823e-47b6-a3c7-d3c9846960e2","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:94f225e8-823e-47b6-a3c7-d3c9846960e2","Climate Change and Fish Farming: Venetian “Fish Valleys” as a Design Device for Coastal Adaptation and Mitigation","Cipriani, L. (TU Delft Landscape Architecture); Destro, Alessandro (Rete Ferroviaria Italiana (RFI))","","2023","Beginning in the fourteenth century, along the northeastern Italian coastline, Venetians began to create a series of hydraulic structures called “fishing valleys,” which combined aquaculture production with lagoon and seawater management. According to the current scenarios provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the coastal areas, where many historic fish farms still stand, will inevitably be affected by the rise in sea level. To be preserved, coastlines will require some sort of water defense or possibly a managed retreat. Can we redesign traditional fish-farm systems as climate, economic and environmental adaptation devices? Through a series of design scenarios, this contribution explores how traditional fish farming can help redefine the territorial scale by addressing climate change and reviving existing production systems.","Climate Change Adaptation; Climate Change Mitigation; Fish farms; Venice lagoon","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Landscape Architecture","","",""
"uuid:ba1e9415-8339-4a3c-8034-67db565be793","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:ba1e9415-8339-4a3c-8034-67db565be793","Climate change induced uncertainties in future coastal ecosystem state","Mészáros, L. (TU Delft Statistics)","Jongbloed, G. (promotor); van der Meulen, F.H. (promotor); El Serafy, G.Y.H. (copromotor); Delft University of Technology (degree granting institution)","2023","This thesis presents a doctoral research where statistical concepts and techniques are applied to problems at the interface of marine and atmospheric processes. The research was conducted at the Statistics group of the Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics (TU Delft) and the Marine and Coastal unit of Deltares. The main objective of the work is to provide statistical tools to understand multi-dimensional climate and marine environmental datasets, as well as to offer ways for quantifying the uncertainties in the coastal ecological response that are driven by the climatic variation. Statistical quantification of uncertainties in data, models and predictions is therefore the central topic of the thesis.
The research is built on open source data (in-situ and satellite measured as well as numerically modelled) from the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service, the Dutch Directorate-General for Public Works and Water Management (Rijkswaterstaat), the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, and the Euro-CORDEX regional climate modelling experiment. It also uses the open source numerical modelling software Delft3D from Deltares. All other statistical models and algorithms developed during the research are published and available open source.
The thesis starts by demonstrating the value of probabilistic predictions and uncertainty quantification for coastal ecosystems. That is done by constructing an ensemble modelling framework where certain chosen numerical model inputs and model process parameters are perturbed, to which the simulated coastal chlorophyll-a concentration is sensitive. The model perturbation was implemented using Latin Hypercube Sampling with Dependence (LHSD), and more than 150 ensemble members were produced using the Delft3D model. This ensemble prediction system is then compared to the deterministic model setup. A range of verification metrics that describe the goodness-of-fit, accuracy, reliability, and discrimination properties of both modelling experiments were computed. Apart from the verification metrics, the value of probabilistic predictions was also showcased by evaluating the benefit of having temporal and spatial estimates of uncertainty by producing ensemble band, predictive uncertainty intervals and standard deviations maps.
In Chapter 3 of the thesis, we work towards the quantification of climate change induced uncertainties in coastal phytoplankton response. The first necessary step is a comprehensive data exploration and dimension reduction, which also provides a statistical underpinning of atmospheric variable selection for the climate impact studies conducted later in the thesis. Here a range of existing dimension reduction techniques are described and applied to seven atmospheric variables (air temperature, solar radiation, eastward wind, northward wind, air pressure, relative humidity, and total cloud cover) and the chlorophyll-a data at hand. These techniques are applied in a structured way to include spatial and temporal correlation, as well as functional features in the multi-dimensional data. The applied methods include Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Principal Component Regression (PCR), Partial Least Squares (PLS) Regression, multi-way models (PARAFAC, Tucker and N-PLS), Dynamic Factor Analysis (DFA), and Functional PCA. Room for dimension reduction in the atmospheric data was identified, underlying temporal patterns in the chlorophyll-a signal at different locations were revealed, structural similarities (characterized by a mean function and functional variation) in the Euro-CORDEX climate projections were found, and the most influential atmospheric variables (solar radiation and air temperature) were chosen.
Building on these findings, we propose a way to quantify uncertainties in the climate scenarios that are used for the climate impact studies. The basis of this research step is the development of a stochastic climate generator, which is first tested on the solar radiation variable. This climate generator takes the existing Euro-CORDEX scenarios (a combination of Representative Concentration Pathways and Generic Circulation Model forcings) and enriches them by generating numerous new synthetic scenarios around them. These new generated scenarios are representative of the original ones due to the way the stochastic climate generator is constructed. The basis of the climate generator is a Bayesian multi-layered (hierarchical) model. In this model there are model parameters representing variation in the long term trend, seasonal amplitude, time shift, and additive residual. The generator estimates the distribution of each model parameter with Bayesian inference, and using data from all scenarios. Then, when sampling from the parameter distributions, numerous climate trajectories can be constructed. The climate generator is successfully tested on the solar radiation variable and the generated synthetic radiation projections are used in a demonstration study where uncertainties are further propagated to chlorophyll-a concentrations using the Delft3D numerical model.
In the final research step of the thesis, this Bayesian stochastic generator is extended to air temperature. This way we have numerous (>100) radiation and temperature projections available to propagate climate induced uncertainties to coastal chlorophyll-a response once again, this time covering the entire 21st century. In order to translate the climate signal into chlorophyll-a response, we make use of a Bayesian structural time series model. This model follows a piecewise linear trend and continues to repeat its multi-seasonal behavior, learnt from the past data, and most importantly also includes linear effects of the two climate variables. For the training of this time series model, we construct a historical chlorophyll-a signal by fusing in-situ and satellite measurements. This fused signal helps us to take advantage of the more frequent satellite measurements while correcting them with the more accurate in-situ measurements that are also available for a longer historical period. The Bayesian structural time series model is then trained on the fused chlorophyll-a signal and used for long term projection, taking the generated radiation and temperature scenarios as regressors. Since our main interest is the phytoplankton spring bloom dynamics, as a last step we extract yearly spring bloom cardinal dates (beginning, peak, end) from the long-term chlorophyll-a projections using a non-parametric shape constrained method (log-concave regression). The final result is therefore the estimation of climate change induced uncertainty in the coastal phytoplankton spring bloom dynamics.","climate change; uncertainty quantification; coastal phytoplankton phenology; Bayesian models; data fusion; multivariate analysis","en","doctoral thesis","","978-94-6366-700-5","","","","","","","","","Statistics","","",""
"uuid:2c4855b0-96f8-4a0f-bbca-22e1dad25874","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:2c4855b0-96f8-4a0f-bbca-22e1dad25874","Transforming urban heating systems: Integrating perspectives on water use, committed emissions and energy justice in the city of Amsterdam","Kaandorp, C. (TU Delft Water Resources)","van de Giesen, N.C. (promotor); Abraham, E. (copromotor); Delft University of Technology (degree granting institution)","2023","","urban heating systems; water-energy Nexus; climate change mitigation; urban sustainability transitions","en","doctoral thesis","","978-94-93315-82-2","","","","","","","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:b1b8748f-9f00-4720-bcb0-c0c7d7ac95fe","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:b1b8748f-9f00-4720-bcb0-c0c7d7ac95fe","Changing Minds: Towards Water-Based Architecture and Public Space for the Future Urban Archipelago","Hein, C.M. (TU Delft History, Form & Aesthetics); Harteveld, Maurice (TU Delft Urban Design); De Martino, P. (TU Delft History, Form & Aesthetics); Hanna, J.M.K. (TU Delft History, Form & Aesthetics); Tabakovic, M. (TU Delft Urban Design); Donkor, C.E. (TU Delft History, Form & Aesthetics)","","2023","This blog contribution supports the Urban Archipelago expo at Nieuwe Instituut (NI) in Rotterdam, designed to consist of four elements: a map, a view, a model, and a series of films that depicted a future of living with water, as well as a booklet that documented student work. The expo has been part of the Water Cities Rotterdam, which opened with the work of Kunlé Adeyemi (NLÉ) on 13 May 2023.","port-cities; public space; Public Space; urban design; water and the city; Urban Design; architecture; urban history; Urban History; water management; Water levels; Water governance; Water safety; coastal flood; Climate change adaptation and mitigation; Weather impact; people; urban culture; urban society","en","report","","","","","","","","","","","History, Form & Aesthetics","","",""
"uuid:0c424cde-eb5d-4bb1-bc28-018b9982fa52","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:0c424cde-eb5d-4bb1-bc28-018b9982fa52","Inhabiting Regional Geographical Practice in a Climate-Changing World","Taylor, Zac (TU Delft Urban Development Management)","","2023","Reflecting on the limits of the sovereign-state centricity of mainstream contemporary climate action, Peter Taylor calls for new forms of regional geographical analysis and intervention. What might these aims and ambitions look and feel like for geographers? With this commentary, I take up Taylor's propositions through personal reflection on the work of “doing regional geography” in this current juncture of transnational climate action and transformation. I engage with the analytical challenges associated with regional climate research today – in my case, by way of financialized climate governance puzzles in Florida and the Netherlands. I also discuss how deconstructive and reconstructive approaches to knowledge production enliven my regional geographical engagement, but also generate new personal and disciplinary dilemmas. With this brief note, I hope to reinforce continued reflection on how geographers might take up – or inhabit – timely calls for regional analysis and intervention in climate-changing regions.","Regional geography; climate change; knowledge production; Florida; The Netherlands; financialization","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Urban Development Management","","",""
"uuid:2edac161-dd7d-485b-9680-ced025033319","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:2edac161-dd7d-485b-9680-ced025033319","Techno-fixing non-compliance - Geoengineering, ideal theory and residual responsibility","Sand, M. (TU Delft Ethics & Philosophy of Technology); Hofbauer, B. (TU Delft Ethics & Philosophy of Technology); Alleblas, J. (TU Delft Ethics & Philosophy of Technology)","","2023","After years of missing the agreed upon goals for carbon reduction, we might conclude that global climate policies set infeasible standards to halt climate change. The widespread non-compliance of many signees with frameworks such as the Paris Agreement indicates that these frameworks were too optimistic regarding the signees’ motivation to act. One of the suggested ways out of this impasse, is geoengineering, which is seen as a “techno-fix” of the non-compliance problem, relieving signees and other actors of some, or most, of their mitigation duties. This paper scrutinizes different approaches towards climate mitigation that focus on behavioral change or on technological solutions. We argue that these different approaches do not originate from categorically different theories of climate justice. Indeed, seemingly realistic and seemingly idealistic proposals do not disagree on the substance of climate justice, but about what is to be considered feasible. Furthermore, by applying this dialectic lens on ideal vs. non-ideal theorizing in the context of climate justice, we show that (backward-looking) residual responsibility is an overlooked aspect of geoengineering as a (forward-looking) non-ideal approach to achieve climate justice. We will outline three possible consequences of this moral residue: 1) Residual responsibility can provide grounds to demand compensation, 2) it can constitute other forward-looking responsibilities (e.g., the maintenance of geoengineering technologies) and 3) it provides a reason to employ other techno-fixes equal in effectiveness and risks that do not sidestep the problem of non-compliance.","Geoengineering; Responsibility; Techno-fix; Ideal theory; Non-compliance; Climate change","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Ethics & Philosophy of Technology","","",""
"uuid:d2212587-436e-48ba-8e6a-c178b185732d","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d2212587-436e-48ba-8e6a-c178b185732d","The Texas Coast: Ship Channel Network of the Petroleum Age","Lessoff, A.H. (TU Delft History, Form & Aesthetics; Illinois State University)","","2023","This article provides an overview of the Texas Gulf Coast as a port city region dedicated above all to oil and gas. By the late 1800s, the same trends in transportation and industry that encouraged ship channel construction around the world drew attention to schemes to transform the Gulf Coast’s shallow bays and estuaries into inland deep-water harbors. An added factor in Texas was the vulnerability of Galveston and other coastal locations to hurricanes. Between 1902, when construction began on the 52-mile Houston Ship Channel, and the 1950s–60s, when a deep-water channel opened at Matagorda Bay along the mid-Texas coast, various levels of government—local, state, and national—combined to engineer one of the world’s most elaborate navigation networks. Six deep-water channels were woven together by Gulf Intracoastal Waterway, which connected Texas to the Mississippi and beyond. During the years when these ports were taking shape, the Texas oil industry had begun to burgeon. In a reflection of the pre-Spindletop origins of Texas’s deep-water movement, policy and planning continued to assume, until oil’s dominance had become clear, that even the massive ship channels at Houston and Corpus Christi would serve mainly as outlets for agricultural commodities. It was the organizers of the state’s petroleum sector who came to understand the Texas ship channels as exemplary locations for aggregating their diverse operations. This interplay between civil engineering and the energy sector made coastal Texas into a dynamic urban port region. Petroleum and petrochemicals, however, so thoroughly imprinted themselves on the landscape, economy, and life of Texas’s oil port region that the region’s post-oil future remained difficult to envision.","Beaumont; climate change; Corpus Christi; Houston; petroleum industry; Port Arthur; port cities; ship channels; Texas cities","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","History, Form & Aesthetics","","",""
"uuid:1bf90ea7-5b51-4f74-8b4f-8ee93af7ae6c","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:1bf90ea7-5b51-4f74-8b4f-8ee93af7ae6c","Toward a low-carbon and circular building sector: Building strategies and urbanization pathways for the Netherlands","van Oorschot, Janneke (Universiteit Leiden); Sprecher, B. (TU Delft Design for Sustainability); Rijken, Bart (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency); Witteveen, Pieter (Metabolic Institute, Amsterdam); Blok, Merlijn (Metabolic Institute, Amsterdam); Schouten, Nico (Metabolic Institute, Amsterdam); van der Voet, Ester (Universiteit Leiden)","","2023","Buildings are an important part of society's environmental impacts, both in the construction and in the use phase. As the energy performance of buildings improve, construction materials become more important as a cause of environmental impact. Less attention has been given to those materials. We explore, as an alternative for conventional buildings, the use of biobased materials and circular building practices. In addition to building design, we analyze the effect of urbanization. We assess the potential to close material cycles together with the material related impact, between 2018 and 2050 in the Netherlands. Our results show a limited potential to close material cycles until 2050, as a result of slow stock turnover and growth of the building stock. At present, end-of-life recycling rates are low, further limiting circularity. Primary material demand can be lowered when shifting toward biobased or circular construction. This shift also reduces material related carbon emissions. Large-scale implementation of biobased construction, however, drastically increases land area required for wood production. Material demand differs strongly spatially and depends on the degree of urbanization. Urbanization results in higher building replacement rates, but constructed dwellings are generally small compared to scenarios with more rural developments. The approach presented in this work can be used to analyze strategies aimed at closing material cycles in the building sector and lowering buildings' embodied environmental impact, at different spatial scales.","building material; circular economy; climate change; geographic information systems; industrial ecology; material flow analysis","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Design for Sustainability","","",""
"uuid:e452cff3-3632-4bd8-8083-b3d47e8560c2","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:e452cff3-3632-4bd8-8083-b3d47e8560c2","The environmental impact of a shift to rail from short-haul flights","van Goeverden, C.D. (TU Delft Transport and Planning)","Tampère, Chris (editor); Cools, Mario (editor); Proost, Stef (editor)","2023","In the context of mitigating climate change, a shift from air to rail is proposed for short-haul journeys. The impact of this policy on the GHG emissions of aviation is small and will be even marginal if only journeys < 500 km are involved. These journeys account for 2.2% of the mileage of air travel, and the impact on emissions will be even smaller than this figure, mainly because not all air travellers (likely) will shift, and part of the emission reduction will be undone by increasing emissions of rail transport. When the upper limit of involved distances increases, the impact increases significantly as well; but even at a limit of 1200 km, which is about the upper limit of the market range of the train, the impact will likely be smaller than the opposite impact of the annual growth of air travel. Policy intentions seem to be prompted by just to do something that doesn’t hurt people so much rather than by a systematic analysis of possible measures and their effectiveness.","modal shift; short-haul travel; airplane; train; climate change","en","conference paper","KU Leuven, Institute for Mobility","","","","","","","","","","Transport and Planning","","",""
"uuid:fc3077c4-8596-4634-a419-4316a0ba2d42","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:fc3077c4-8596-4634-a419-4316a0ba2d42","Experts as Game Changers? A Critical Discourse Analysis of Climate Measures in the Metropolitan Region of Amsterdam","Herdt, T. (TU Delft Urban Design; Eastern Switzerland University of Applied Sciences); Muñoz Sanz, V. (TU Delft Urban Design)","","2023","This article analyzes the acceptance of climate policy measures in the Metropolitan Region of Amsterdam to understand how policy and planning interrelate with private and public interests. While legitimizing climate policy and measures, values can also cause conflict when operationalized locally. By analyzing value conflicts in public discourse, we gain insights into questions of environmental behavior and their influence on the acceptance of climate action. We report on quantitative and qualitative discourse analysis covering 410 articles from Dutch newspapers between 2015 and 2021 in the Metropolitan Region of Amsterdam related to the energy transition, mobility, and urban greening. Our findings show that public discourse mostly remains abstract and detached from local contexts. As experts and politicians dominate the debate, the discourse mainly addresses science- and policy-related arguments, representing the public interest but reflecting only insufficiently private interests and the local (re-)distribution of benefits and burdens. Therefore, we attribute spontaneous protest to the lack of reference to differentiated values at the local level and find the argument of NIMBYism insufficient to explain residents’ opposition. Instead, our findings point to experts’ and decision-makers’ lack of recognition of the local “idea of place” and a community’s identity as an explanation for the sudden emergence of protests. Here, urban design may bridge the gap between policy and planning by translating technical and economic constraints into place-specific designs.","climate change adaptation; climate change mitigation; critical discourse analysis; environmental behavior; identity of place; public acceptability; urban design; urban planning; values","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Urban Design","","",""
"uuid:05d5de2d-98dc-4355-bcdb-cf949f3d360d","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:05d5de2d-98dc-4355-bcdb-cf949f3d360d","Climate activists — rethink fossil-fuel subsidy cuts","van den Bergh, Jeroen (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona); van Beers, Cees (TU Delft Economics of Technology and Innovation); King, Lewis C. (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)","","2023","","Climate change; Economics; Society","en","journal article","","","","","","Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.","","2023-11-16","","","Economics of Technology and Innovation","","",""
"uuid:f71fe302-04d1-4532-b84f-b5a56f5ac3f5","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:f71fe302-04d1-4532-b84f-b5a56f5ac3f5","Uncertainty in boundedly rational household adaptation to environmental shocks","Taberna, A. (TU Delft Multi Actor Systems; TU Delft Policy Analysis); Filatova, T. (TU Delft Multi Actor Systems; TU Delft Policy Analysis); Hadjimichael, Antonia (The Pennsylvania State University); Noll, B.L. (TU Delft Multi Actor Systems; TU Delft Policy Analysis)","","2023","Despite the growing calls to integrate realistic human behavior in sustainability science models, the representative rational agent prevails. This is especially problematic for climate change adaptation that relies on actions at various scales: from governments to individuals. Empirical evidence on individual adaptation to climate-induced hazards reveals diverse behavioral and social factors affecting economic considerations. Yet, implications of replacing the rational optimizer by realistic human behavior in nature-society systems models are poorly understood. Using an innovative evolutionary economic agent-based model we explore different framings regarding household adaptation behavior to floods, leveraging on behavioral data from a household survey in Miami, USA. We find that a representative rational agent significantly overestimates household adaptation diffusion and underestimates damages compared to boundedly rational behavior revealed from our survey. This ""adaptation deficit"" exhibited by a population of empirically informed agents is explained primarily by diverse ""soft"" adaptation constraints-awareness, social influences-rather than heterogeneity in financial constraints. Besides initial inequality disproportionally impacting low/medium adaptive capacity households post-flood, our findings suggest that even under a nearly complete adaptation diffusion, adaptation benefits are uneven, with late or less-efficient actions locking households to a path of higher damages, further exacerbating inequalities. Our exploratory modeling reveals that behavioral assumptions shape the uncertainty of physical factors, like exposure and objective effectiveness of flood-proofing measures, traditionally considered crucial in risk assessments. This unique combination of methods facilitates the assessment of cumulative and distributional effects of boundedly rational behavior essential for designing tailored climate adaptation policies, and for equitable sustainability transitions in general.","agent-based model; climate change adaptation; distributional impacts; exploratory modeling; survey","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","Multi Actor Systems","Policy Analysis","","",""
"uuid:8c9abb68-bdf3-4f6e-a880-f40b906def19","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:8c9abb68-bdf3-4f6e-a880-f40b906def19","Estimated impact of CO2 and NOx emission reduction targets on car ownership and car use in The Netherlands","Vleugel, J (TU Delft Transport and Planning); Bal, Frans (University of Applied Sciences Amsterdam)","Syngellakis, S. (editor)","2023","Densely populated areas are major sources of air, soil and water pollution. Agriculture, manufacturing, consumer households and road traffic all have their share. This is particularly true for the country featured in this paper: the Netherlands. Continuous pollution of the air and soil manifests itself as acification, decalcification and eutrofication. Biodiversity becomes lower and lower in nature areas. Biological farms are also under threat. In case of mobility, local air pollution may have a huge health impact. Effective policy is called for, after high courts blocked construction projects, because of foreseen building- and transport-related NOx emissions. EU law makers are after Dutch governments, because these favoured economics and politics over environmental and liveability concerns. But, people in the Netherlands are strongly divided. The latest provincial elections were dominated by environmental concerns, next to many socio-economic issues. NOx and CO2 emissions by passenger cars are in focus. Technical means and increasing fuel economy norms strongly reduced NOx emissions to a still too high level. A larger number of cars neutralized a technological reduction of CO2 emissions. The question is: What would be the impact of a drastic mandatory reduction in CO2, NOx, and PM10 emissions on car ownership and use in the Netherlands? The authors used literature, scenario analysis and simulation modelling to answer this question. Electric mobility could remove these emissions. Its full impact will only be achieved if the grid-mix, which is still dominated by fossil fuels, becomes green(er), which is a gradual, long-term, process. EVs compete with other consumers of electricity, as many other activities, such as heating, are also electrifying. With the current grid-mix, it is inevitable that the number of km per vehicle per year is reduced to reach the scenario targets (−25% resp. −50% CO2 emissions by cars). This calls for an individual mobility budget per car user.","climate change; CO2 emissions; Fuel efficiency; Electric vehicles; Behaviour; Policymaking","en","conference paper","WIT Press","","","","","","","","","","Transport and Planning","","",""
"uuid:a2efd12e-b077-4683-bec2-c46c8104b187","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:a2efd12e-b077-4683-bec2-c46c8104b187","A cyclostratigraphic framework of the Upper Carboniferous Westoe and Cleaver formations in the southern North Sea Basin as a methodology for stratigraphic reservoir characterisation","Baars, T.F. (TU Delft Applied Geology); Huis in ‘t Veld, Richard (Argo Geological Consultants B.V.); Zhang, Linzhi (Student TU Delft); Koopmans, Maaike (Wintershall Noordzee B.V.); McLean, Duncan (MB Stratigraphy Limited); Martinius, A.W. (TU Delft Applied Geology); Abels, H.A. (TU Delft Applied Geology)","","2023","Orbital driven climate control on sedimentation produces regional, stratigraphically repetitive characters and so cyclostratigraphic correlation can improve correlation and identify stratigraphic trends in borehole sections. This concept is commonly used to correlate marine and lacustrine strata. However, in the alluvial domain, its use is more challenging because internal, local dynamics controlling sedimentation may interfere with the expression of cyclic climate forcing. Intervals of low net-to-gross may be important for successful application in this domain as they tend to better document regional changes. This study applies climate-based stratigraphic correlation concepts to improve well correlations, characterise vertical sand distribution, and identify potential reservoir targets in a generally low net-to-gross interval. Coarsening upward sedimentary repetitions (cyclothems) are identified and correlated with high certainty in nineteen well sections in the upper Carboniferous Westoe and Cleaver formations of the Silverpit Basin. Local sedimentary dynamics provide variability in the character of the cyclothems and several types of cyclothem are classified. Correlation of sections using cyclothems recognised on wireline logs is done twice: once manually and once semi-automatically. The semi-automated correlation is based on calculation of deviation curves which depict stratigraphic changes that are less dependent on absolute wireline values and follow vertical trends more clearly. The correlations provide composite stratigraphies that are analysed using vertical proportions curves. Both approaches yield similar results in terms of stratigraphic trends. However, for detailed correlation of wells, the manual correlation is better at accounting for any local variability within the system. The same two zones of higher net-to-gross ratios are found using both correlation methods. These are linked to palaeoclimatic changes driven by long eccentricity and the proposed climate stratigraphic model has predictive value for identifying sandstone occurrence. The climate-based stratigraphic correlation improves the assessment reservoir distribution and properties on small (10–20 m thickness) and large (100–200 m thickness) stratigraphical scales.","Allogenic and autogenic processes; Cyclothem; Fluvial architecture; Orbital climate change; Stratigraphic predictive models; Reservoir characterisation","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Applied Geology","","",""
"uuid:a68bf1a7-a4e0-40c7-9d0d-1060bb298c88","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:a68bf1a7-a4e0-40c7-9d0d-1060bb298c88","RISE-UP: Resilience in urban planning for climate uncertainty: Empirical insights and theoretical reflections from case studies in Amsterdam and Mumbai","Krishnan, S. (TU Delft System Engineering); Aydin, N.Y. (TU Delft System Engineering); Comes, M. (TU Delft Transport and Logistics)","","2023","Climate change is one of the main drivers of uncertainty in urban planning, but only a few studies systematically address these uncertainties, especially in the long term. Urban resilience theory presents principles to manage uncertainty but largely focuses on individual urban systems rather than complex interdependent dynamics. Further, most planning and resilience theory originates from the Global North and is unsuitable for capturing the dynamics of the Global South. This study uses an exploratory multi-case analysis towards developing an enhanced understanding of urban planning for climate uncertainty. We argue that long-term urban planning for climate uncertainty can benefit from systematically integrating resilience principles. We use a two-step qualitative research approach: (1) To propose a conceptual framework connecting urban resilience principles, approaches to urban planning under uncertainty and planning responses in urban systems. (2) To use the conceptual framework to analyse climate-related planning responses in two contrasting case studies in the Global North (GN) and Global South (GS) (Amsterdam and Mumbai). We conclude with four propositions towards an enhanced understanding of urban planning for climate uncertainty by drawing upon the empirical insights from the two case studies.","urban resilience; Climate change; Urban planning; Cities","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","System Engineering","","",""
"uuid:dade2e92-816e-4bbb-9f9c-b041f6f3d9f2","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:dade2e92-816e-4bbb-9f9c-b041f6f3d9f2","Innovative Methods for Mapping the Suitability of Nature-Based Solutions for Landslide Risk Reduction","Devananda Vijayananda Vivek, D.V. (IHE Delft Institute for Water Education); Mubeen, A. (TU Delft BT/Environmental Biotechnology; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education); Vojinovic, Z (IHE Delft Institute for Water Education); Sanchez Torres, A (IHE Delft Institute for Water Education); Paliaga, Guido (Geographical Information Systems International Group, Genova); Fikri, Ahmad K. (Universiti Putra Malaysia); Leitão, João P. (Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology); Manojlovic, Natasa (Hamburg University of Technology); Fröhle, Peter (Hamburg University of Technology)","","2023","The impacts of climate change are becoming more widespread across the world, with hydro-meteorological extreme events on the rise, causing severe threats to nature and communities. Increasing trends in the frequency and intensity of floods and landslides have been projected by climate models. This necessitates the development of more effective measures such as nature-based solutions (NBS) which can complement grey infrastructures. Recent studies have identified
knowledge gaps and limitations in existing research and tools that aid in spatial planning for the implementation of large-scale NBS and proposed new methodologies for the spatial allocation of largescale NBS for flood risk reduction. This work presents a novel method for mapping the suitability of NBS addressing geo-hydrological hazards such as shallow landslides, debris flow, and rockfall, which are typically caused due to slope instability. This methodology incorporates landslide susceptibility mapping, and was used to create a toolbox ESRI ArcGIS environment to aid decision-makers in the planning and implementation of large-scale NBS. The spatial allocation toolbox was applied to the case study Portofino promontory, Liguria region, Italy, and 70% of the area was found to be highly susceptible to landslides. The produced suitability maps show that 41%, 33%, and 65% of the study
area is suitable for the restoration of terraces, bio-engineering, and vegetative measures such as NBS for landslide risk reduction.","nature-based solutions; climate chang; afforestatio; suitability mapping; landslide risk reduction","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","BT/Environmental Biotechnology","","",""
"uuid:2290ddc0-0330-4484-bc33-65237ea74eb6","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:2290ddc0-0330-4484-bc33-65237ea74eb6","Environmental ethics beyond conferences: A response to the WCB bioethics in Qatar","Richie, C.S. (TU Delft Ethics & Philosophy of Technology)","","2023","Rieke van der Graaf, Karin Jongsma, Martine de Vries, Suzanne van de Vathorst, and Ineke Bolt have done well to voice ethical concerns over the decision of the IAB to host the next WCB in Qatar. Conferences should be more sustainable. Yet, attention to the carbon impact of conferences—and, perhaps, any country that a person might travel to for business or pleasure—are only one small part of environmentally responsible citizenship, especially for those trained in ethics and committed to health. Both bioethics as a discipline and bioethicists as individuals need to interrogate their environmental choices. To this end, some ecological choices are more obvious targets of ethical scrutiny—diet and travel—while others appear sacrosanct, like reproduction and even healthcare use. This underscores the importance of making sustainable and ethical organizational choices, such as where to hold a conference, without absolving environmental accountability in other ethical calculations. Many organizations in academic and clinical medicine need to make drastic alterations in their practices and policies to effectively mitigate carbon. While the burden is not only on bioethics alone, the expectation that it should be remains.","climate change; environmental bioethics; organizational ethics; sustainable conference","en","journal article","","","","","","Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.","","2023-12-29","","","Ethics & Philosophy of Technology","","",""
"uuid:bd75bfa9-0186-45bb-a347-b5ff43e410f3","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:bd75bfa9-0186-45bb-a347-b5ff43e410f3","Uncertainties in wave-driven longshore sediment transport projections presented by a dynamic CMIP6-based ensemble","Zarifsanayei, Amin Reza (Griffith University); Antolínez, José A. Á. (TU Delft Coastal Engineering); Cartwright, Nick (Griffith University); Etemad-Shahidi, Amir (Edith Cowan University; Griffith University); Strauss, Darrell (Griffith University); Lemos, Gil (University of Lisbon); Semedo, Alvaro (IHE Delft Institute for Water Education); Kumar, Rajesh (Centre for Climate Research Singapore); Dobrynin, Mikhail (Deutscher Wetterdienst); Akpınar, Adem (Bursa Uludağ University)","","2023","In this study four experiments were conducted to investigate uncertainty in future longshore sediment transport (LST) projections due to: working with continuous time series of CSIRO CMIP6-driven waves (experiment #1) or sliced time series of waves from CSIRO-CMIP6-Ws and CSIRO-CMIP5-Ws (experiment #2); different wave-model-parametrization pairs to generate wave projections (experiment #3); and the inclusion/exclusion of sea level rise (SLR) for wave transformation (experiment #4). For each experiment, a weighted ensemble consisting of offshore wave forcing conditions, a surrogate model for nearshore wave transformation and eight LST models was used. The results of experiment # 1 indicated that the annual LST rates obtained from a continuous time series of waves were influenced by climate variability acting on timescales of 20-30 years. Uncertainty decomposition clearly reveals that for near-future coastal planning, a large part of the uncertainty arises from model selection and natural variability of the system (e.g., on average, 4% scenario, 57% model, and 39% internal variability). For the far future, the total uncertainty consists of 25% scenario, 54% model and 21% internal variability. Experiment #2 indicates that CMIP6 driven wave climatology yield similar outcomes to CMIP5 driven wave climatology in that LST rates decrease along the study area’s coast by less than 10%. The results of experiment #3 indicate that intra- and inter-annual variability of LST rates are influenced by the parameterization schemes of the wave simulations. This can increase the range of uncertainty in the LST projections and at the same time can limit the robustness of the projections. The inclusion of SLR (experiment #4) in wave transformation, under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, yields only meagre changes in the LST projections, compared to the case no SLR. However, it is noted that future research on SLR influence should include potential changes in nearshore profile shapes.","uncertainty in LST projections; climate change; CMIP6 CSIRO wave projections; ensemble modelling; coastal evolution","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Coastal Engineering","","",""
"uuid:ad5b0568-9d0a-4479-835b-666549ce2401","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:ad5b0568-9d0a-4479-835b-666549ce2401","Climate change impacts on immovable cultural heritage in polar regions: A systematic bibliometric review","Nicu, Ionut Cristi (Norwegian Institute for Cultural Heritage Research (NIKU)); Fatorić, Sandra (TU Delft History, Form & Aesthetics)","","2023","Over the past decade, research on the impacts of climate change on immovable cultural heritage (ICH) in the polar regions (Arctic and Antarctica) has slowly increased. This article offers a systematic review and synthesis of the publications about climate change impacts on the diverse ICH and climate change adaptation in the polar regions. Gray literature was not included in the study. Arctic countries like Sweden, Finland, Iceland, and Russia, and their associated research organizations, are under-represented in this literature when compared with the USA, Canada, Denmark, and Norway. More than half of the analyzed literature is published in the last 3 years (2019, 2020, and 2021) with a focus on coastal erosion and ICH degradation (cryospheric hazards). ICH is at risk from biological degradation, coastal erosion, debris flow, and thaw slumping. Nearly half of the studies report on the need for climate change adaptation planning and implementation for ICH. This study shows that advances in research on climate change impacts and adaptation responses are needed to improve decision- and policy-maker capacity to support effective adaptation policies and to contribute to the achievement of SDGs in polar regions. The polar regions' vulnerable landscapes and ICH sites can be used to communicate a larger message about the climate change challenges and adaptation measures. This article is categorized under: Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Observed Impacts of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Learning from Cases and Analogies Climate and Development > Sustainability and Human Well-Being.","Antarctica; Arctic; climate change; climate change adaptation; cryospheric hazards; cultural heritage","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","History, Form & Aesthetics","","",""
"uuid:d1c14c80-6daa-4d69-8f07-1e3ff22d534b","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d1c14c80-6daa-4d69-8f07-1e3ff22d534b","Gender-Ethnicity Intersectionality in Climate Change Adaptation in the Coastal Areas of Bangladesh","Assaduzzaman, Mohammad (University of Twente); Filatova, T. (TU Delft Policy Analysis); Lovett, Jon C. (University of Leeds); Coenen, Frans H.J.M. (University of Twente)","","2023","Climate change effects are not uniform and have disproportionate impacts among different groups of people within communities. It is therefore important to understand the underlying issues of intersectionality for climate change adaptation and human well-being. This paper aims to measure human capabilities and freedom of choice by analyzing perceived climate change impacts and current climate change adaptation ability among ethnic and non-ethnic communities in Bangladesh. This study applies a range of participatory rural appraisal tools and key informant interviews to assess impacts of climate change when considering gender and ethnicity. Women in the coastal regions have less access to resources and services because of social capital and cultural practices and this directly or indirectly influences their adaptation to climate change. Women have limited or no participation in decision-making processes at family or community levels and this impacts their vulnerability and well-being. In consequence, women’s capabilities must be focused on moderating their vulnerability and risk, and developing effective adaptation to the adverse impacts of climate change and natural hazards.","Bangladesh; capability approach; climate change adaptation; coastal regions; ethnicity; gender; intersectionality","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Policy Analysis","","",""
"uuid:4535de4e-bf70-4b3f-9fd7-0e7bc6f749c6","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:4535de4e-bf70-4b3f-9fd7-0e7bc6f749c6","From circular strategies to actions: 65 European circular building cases and their decarbonisation potential","Nußholz, Julia (Rambøll Management Consulting); Çetin, Sultan (TU Delft Real Estate Management); Eberhardt, Leonora (COWI); De Wolf, Catherine (ETH Zürich); Bocken, Nancy (Maastricht University School of Business and Economics)","","2023","The application of the circular economy (CE) in the building industry is critical for achieving the carbon reduction goals defined in the Paris Agreement and is increasingly promoted through European policies. In recent years, CE strategies have been applied and tested in numerous building projects in practice. However, insights into their application and decarbonisation potential are limited. This study analysed and visualised 65 novel real-world cases of new build, renovation, and demolition projects in Europe compiled from academic and grey literature. Cases were analysed regarding the circular solution applied, level of application in buildings, and decarbonisation potential reported, making this study one of the first comprehensive studies on the application and decarbonisation potential of circular strategies in the building industry in practice. The identified challenges of using LCA for CE assessment in buildings are discussed and methodological approaches for future research are suggested.","Carbon emissions; Circular buildings; Circular built environment; Circular economy; Climate change; Sustainability","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Real Estate Management","","",""
"uuid:90e4210e-2653-48e2-ad9a-067ef837b353","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:90e4210e-2653-48e2-ad9a-067ef837b353","Changes of hydro-meteorological trigger conditions for debris flows in a future alpine climate","Kaitna, Roland (BOKU-University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences); Prenner, David (BOKU-University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences); Switanek, Matt (Karl-Franzens-Universitat Graz); Maraun, Douglas (Karl-Franzens-Universitat Graz); Stoffel, Markus (Université de Genève); Hrachowitz, M. (TU Delft Water Resources)","","2023","Debris-flow activity is strongly controlled by hydro-meteorological trigger conditions, which are expected to change in a future climate. In this study we connect a regional hydro-meteorological susceptibility model for debris flows with climate projections until 2100 to assess changes of the frequency of critical trigger conditions for different trigger types (long-lasting rainfall, short-duration storm, snow-melt, rain-on-snow) in six regions in the Austrian Alps. We find limited annual changes of the number of days critical for debris-flow initiation when averaged over all regions, but distinct changes when separating between hydro-meteorological trigger types and study region. Changes become more evident at the monthly/seasonal scale, with a general trend of critical debris-flow trigger conditions earlier in the year. The outcomes of this study serve as a basis for the development of adaption strategies for future risk management.","Climate change; Debris-flow initiation; Hydrological modeling; Trigger conditions","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:3cde24ff-71b8-4f09-b7d1-02c84ed022b3","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:3cde24ff-71b8-4f09-b7d1-02c84ed022b3","Effectiveness of community-based mangrove management for coastal protection: A case study from Central Java, Indonesia","Damastuti, Ekaningrum (Wageningen University & Research); van Wesenbeeck, B (TU Delft Coastal Engineering; Deltares); Leemans, Rik (Wageningen University & Research); de Groot, Rudolf S. (Wageningen University & Research); Silvius, Marcel J. (Global Green Growth Institute Indonesia)","","2023","Management and restoration of mangrove forests to protect coasts are promoted in many countries, including Indonesia. Indonesian mangrove forests are actively restored and managed by local communities for their ecosystem services, including coastal protection. Whether community-based mangrove management (CBMM) is effective is still debated. Our study analysed the effectiveness of different CBMM practices in four Central Javan communities by analysing the capacity of their mangrove forests to protect against coastal hazards. We used complementary interviews, field assessments and literature reviews to collect the necessary information. The overall CBMM performance and success significantly differed for each community's mangrove rehabilitation effort and the resulting coastal protection service. Of the four communities, Bedono performed best in terms of mangrove coverage, forest structure and restored coastal protection service. This is explained by multiple factors, such as application of long-term and integrated CBMM approaches, involving appropriate maintenance and additional measures to reduce wave energy. Our results can help governments, practitioners and communities to better understand the factors that contribute to CBMM's success and failure when restoring and managing mangrove forests and protecting coasts.","Climate change; Coastal erosion; Coastal protection; Community governance; Indonesia; Java; Mangrove structure","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Coastal Engineering","","",""
"uuid:8887057c-f9ec-41c8-be17-687a6e9fecf6","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:8887057c-f9ec-41c8-be17-687a6e9fecf6","Flushing Toilets and Cooling Spaces with Seawater Improve Water-Energy Securities and Achieve Carbon Mitigations in Coastal Cities","Zhang, Zi (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology); Sato, Yugo (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology); Dai, Ji (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology); Chui, Ho kwong (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology); Daigger, Glen (University of Michigan); van Loosdrecht, Mark C.M. (TU Delft BT/Environmental Biotechnology); Chen, Guanghao (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)","","2023","Exploring alternative water sources and improving the efficiency of energy uses are crucial approaches to strengthening the water-energy securities and achieving carbon mitigations in sub(tropical) coastal cities. Seawater use for toilet flushing and district cooling systems is reportedly practical for achieving multiaspect benefits in Hong Kong. However, the currently followed practices are yet to be systematically evaluated for scale expansions and system adaptation in other coastal cities. The significance of using seawater to enhance local water-energy securities and carbon mitigations in urban areas remains unknown. Herein, we developed a high-resolution scheme to quantify the effects of the large-scale urban use of seawater on a city’s reliance on non-local and non-natural water and energy supplies and its carbon mitigation goals. We applied the developed scheme in Hong Kong, Jeddah, and Miami to assess diverse climates and urban characteristics. The annual water and energy saving potentials were found to be 16-28% and 3-11% of the annual freshwater and electricity consumption, respectively. Life cycle carbon mitigations were accomplished in the compact cities of Hong Kong and Miami (2.3 and 4.6% of the cities’ mitigation goals, respectively) but not in a sprawled city like Jeddah. Moreover, our results suggest that district-level decisions could result in optimal outcomes supporting seawater use in urban areas.","carbon mitigation; climate change; coastal cities; municipal services; seawater","en","journal article","","","","","","Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.","","2023-09-09","","","BT/Environmental Biotechnology","","",""
"uuid:27b56abb-8d0b-44d6-aadd-938cde6e5166","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:27b56abb-8d0b-44d6-aadd-938cde6e5166","Quantifying the impacts of synoptic weather patterns on North Sea wind power production and ramp events under a changing climate","Cheneka, B.R. (TU Delft Wind Energy); Watson, S.J. (TU Delft Wind Energy); Basu, S. (TU Delft Atmospheric Remote Sensing; University at Albany - State University of New York)","","2023","Only a few studies on the overall impact of climate change on offshore wind power production and wind power ramps in the North Sea region have been published. This study focuses on the characteristics of expected wind power production and wind power ramps in the future climate aided by the classification of circulations patterns using a self-organizing map (SOM). A SOM is used to cluster high-resolution CMIP5-CORDEX sea level pressure data into 30 European area weather patterns. These patterns are used to better understand wind power production trends and any potential changes. An increased frequency of occurrence and extended persistence of high pressure systems lasting at least 24 h is projected in the future. Whereas a contrasting reducing tendency for low-pressure systems is estimated. No significant evidence is seen for a change in wind power capacity factor over the North Sea, though tentative evidence is seen for a reduction in wind power ramps. Annual energy production is seen to be dominated by a small number of weather patterns with westerly, south-westerly or north-westerly winds. Future wind power production is projected to become less from westerly winds and more from south-westerly and north-westerly flows. Ramp up events are primarily associated with strong south-westerly winds or weather patterns with a weak pressure gradient. Ramp down events have a stronger association with more north-westerly flow. In a future climate, a reduction in ramp up events associated with weak pressure gradients is projected.","Climate change; CORDEX; North Sea; Self-organizing maps; Wind ramps","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Wind Energy","","",""
"uuid:0846ce60-5d59-4cce-ae88-56f797352e38","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:0846ce60-5d59-4cce-ae88-56f797352e38","Towards Climate Resilient Freight Transport in Europe","Bal, Frans (Utrecht University of Applied Sciences); Vleugel, J (TU Delft Transport and Planning)","","2023","Climate change is related with weather extremes, which may cause damages to infrastructure used by freight transport services. Heavy rainfall may lead to flooding and damage to railway lines, roads and inland waterways. Extreme drought may lead to extremely low water levels, which prevent safe navigation by inland barges. Wet and dry periods may alternate, leaving little time to repair damages. In some Western and Middle-European countries, barges have a large share in freight transport. If a main waterway is out of service, then alternatives are called for. Volume- and price-wise, trucking is not a viable alternative. Could railways be that alternative? The paper was written after the unusually long dry summer period in Europe in 2022. It deals with the question: If the Rhine, a major European waterway becomes locally inaccessible, could railways (temporarily) play a larger role in freight transport? It is a continuation of our earlier research. It contains a case study, the data of which was fed into a simulation model. The model deals with technical details like service specification route length, energy consumption and emissions. The study points to interesting rail services to keep Europe’s freight on the move. Their realization may be complex especially in terms of logistics and infrastructure, but is there an alternative?","climate change; resilience; rail freight; barges; international; modelling; OA-Fund TU Delft","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Transport and Planning","","",""
"uuid:47982121-2993-4304-bb0c-6212103d9890","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:47982121-2993-4304-bb0c-6212103d9890","Modeling Low Energy Demand Futures for Buildings: Current State and Research Needs","Mastrucci, Alessio (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg); Niamir, Leila (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg); Boza-Kiss, Benigna (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg); Bento, Nuno (Instituto Universitário de Lisboa (ISCTE-IUL)); Wiedenhofer, Dominik (BOKU-University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences); Streeck, Jan (BOKU-University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences); Pachauri, Shonali (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg); Wilson, Charlie (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg; University of Oxford); Chatterjee, Souran (Plymouth University); Creutzig, Felix (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change; Technical University of Berlin); Dukkipati, Srihari; Feng, Wei (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory); Grubler, Arnulf (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg); Jupesta, Joni; Kumar, Poornima (University of Oxford); Marangoni, G. (TU Delft Policy Analysis; Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici); Saheb, Yamina; Shimoda, Yoshiyuki (Osaka University); Shoai-Tehrani, Bianka (Reseau de Transport d'Electricite); Yamaguchi, Yohei (Osaka University); van Ruijven, Bas (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg)","","2023","Buildings are key in supporting human activities and well-being by providing shelter and other important services to their users. Buildings are, however, also responsible for major energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during their life cycle. Improving the quality of services provided by buildings while reaching low energy demand (LED) levels is crucial for climate and sustainability targets. Building sector models have become essential tools for decision support on strategies to reduce energy demand and GHG emissions. Yet current models have significant limitations in their ability to assess the transformations required for LED. We review building sector models ranging from the subnational to the global scale to identify best practices and critical gaps in representing transformations toward LED futures. We focus on three key dimensions of intervention (socio-behavioral, infrastructural, and technological), three megatrends (digitalization, sharing economy, and circular economy), and decent living standards. This review recommends the model developments needed to better assess LED transformations in buildings and support decision-making toward sustainability targets.","climate change mitigation; decent living standards; energy demand transformation; megatrends; residential and commercial; scenarios development","en","review","","","","","","","","","","","Policy Analysis","","",""
"uuid:e9a22676-b5e9-43e4-86c9-0a6ffd9e8ca8","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:e9a22676-b5e9-43e4-86c9-0a6ffd9e8ca8","Groundwater Vulnerability in a Megacity Under Climate and Economic Changes: A Coupled Sociohydrological Analysis","Li, Bin (Pearl River Water Resources Research Institute; Southern University of Science and Technology); Zheng, Yi (Southern University of Science and Technology); Di Baldassarre, Giuliano (Uppsala University); Xu, Peng (Southern University of Science and Technology); Pande, S. (TU Delft Water Resources); Sivapalan, Murugesu (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)","","2023","Groundwater depletion has become increasingly challenging, and many cities worldwide have adopted drastic policies to relieve water stress due to socioeconomic growth. Located on the declining aquifer of the North China Plain, Beijing, for example, has developed plans to limit the size of the city’s population. However, the effect of population displacement under uncertain macroeconomic and climate change remains ambiguous. We adopt a sociohydrological model, with explicit consideration of the dynamics of human-water interactions, to explore the groundwater vulnerability of Beijing. We investigate how human response might shape the development trajectories of the groundwater-population-economy system under different macroscale economic and climate scenarios. Furthermore, we use a machine learning algorithm to identify the decisive factors to be considered for reducing groundwater vulnerability. Our results show that while rapid external economic development or larger annual average precipitation would enable recovery of the groundwater table in the short term, they may slacken human water shortage awareness and result in more acute groundwater depletion in the long run. Strengthening policymaker perceptions of groundwater depletion would prompt timely response policies for controlling population size. Improving the quantity and quality of labor force input to economic development would avoid downturns in the economy due to labor shortages. The outcomes of this study suggest that these strategies would effectively reduce groundwater vulnerability in the long run without causing severe socioeconomic recession. These findings highlight the importance of endogenizing human behavioral dynamics in sustainable urban water management.","climate change; groundwater; modeling; sociohydrology; water management; water supply","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:8dfd6fde-13c0-4983-b448-957e5f3a96b2","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:8dfd6fde-13c0-4983-b448-957e5f3a96b2","Flash Drought Typologies and Societal Impacts: A Worldwide Review of Occurrence, Nomenclature, and Experiences of Local Populations","Walker, David W. (Wageningen University & Research); Vergopolan, Noemi (Princeton University; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration); Cavalcante, Louise (Wageningen University & Research); Smith, Kelly Helm (University of Nebraska); Agoungbome, David (TU Delft Water Resources); Almagro, André (Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul (UFMS)); Apurv, Tushar (Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur); Dahal, Nirmal Mani (People in Need; The Institute of Fundamental Research and Studies); Hoffmann, David (Bureau of Meteorology Australia)","","2023","Flash droughts, characterized by rapid onset and intensification, are increasingly occurring as a consequence of climate change and rising temperatures. However, existing hydrometeorological definitions fail to encompass the full range of flash droughts, many of which have distinct local physical attributes. Consequently, these events often go undetected or unforecast in generic global flash drought assessments and are underrepresented in research. To address this gap, we conducted a comprehensive survey to gather information on local nomenclature, characteristics, and impacts of flash droughts worldwide. The survey revealed the widespread occurrence of these phenomena, highlighting their underre-searched nature. By analyzing case studies, through literature review often in local languages to unearth elusive studies, we identified five different types of flash droughts based on their specific characteristics. Our study aims to increase awareness about the complexity and diverse impacts of flash droughts, emphasizing the importance of considering regional contexts and the vulnerability of affected populations. The reported impacts underscore the need for better integration of all flash drought types in drought research, monitoring, and management. Monitoring a combination of indicators is crucial for timely detection and response to this emerging and escalating threat.","Climate change; Communications/decision-making; Drought; Extreme events; Societal impacts; Vulnerability","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:fc5e3f4d-5b7f-47cb-87f0-a7c070656faf","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:fc5e3f4d-5b7f-47cb-87f0-a7c070656faf","Historical Shifts in Seasonality and Timing of Extreme Precipitation","Gründemann, Gaby J. (TU Delft Water Resources; University of Saskatchewan); Zorzetto, E. (Princeton University); van de Giesen, N.C. (TU Delft Water Resources); van der Ent, R.J. (TU Delft Water Resources)","","2023","Global warming impacts the hydrological cycle, affecting the seasonality and timing of extreme precipitation. Understanding historical changes in extreme precipitation occurrence is crucial for assessing their impacts. This study uses relative entropy to analyze historical changes in seasonality and timing of extreme daily precipitation occurrences on the global domain for 63 years of fifth generation of the European Reanalysis reanalysis data. Our analysis reveals distinct regional patterns of change. During the second half of the 20th century, Africa and Asia experienced high clustering of precipitation extremes. Over the past 60 years, clustering increased in Africa while becoming more spread out in Asia. North America and Australia had initially lower clustering and showed slight increases over time. Extreme events in extra-tropical land regions mainly occurred in summer, with modest shifts in timing. These findings have implications for risk assessments of natural hazard like flash floods and landslides, emphasizing the necessity for region-specific adaptation strategies.","climate change; extreme precipitation; global domain; reanalysis; relative entropy; seasonality; OA-Fund TU Delft","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:dc490c87-a3ad-4adb-8ae1-22e4f16981f1","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:dc490c87-a3ad-4adb-8ae1-22e4f16981f1","Including equity considerations in resilient transport network planning and analysis: A flood impact perspective","van Marle, Margreet (Deltares); Jafino, B.A. (TU Delft Multi Actor Systems; TU Delft Policy Analysis; Deltares); Lourens, Lotte (Deltares); Hüsken, Lieke (Deltares)","","2023","Transportation plays a pivotal role in society in the accessibility of socio-economic functions, such as education and health services. At the same time these transport networks are put under pressure due to increasing demands and the often-increasing occurrence of climate-induced events. To increase resilience of the transportation network to disruptions, network criticality has been used to prioritise segments of the network for interventions. Here we present how equity principles can be applied in the context of decision making for resilient infrastructure. This is done for both a data-rich (The Hague, The Netherlands) and data-poor (Pontianak, Indonesia) environment. The results show that depending on the underlying equity principle different intervention locations are prioritized and changes the impact for different socio-economic groups and the general population.","climate change adaptation; equity; network criticality; resilience; social vulnerability","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","Multi Actor Systems","Policy Analysis","","",""
"uuid:91920944-ef46-4329-b6d7-c3f779269943","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:91920944-ef46-4329-b6d7-c3f779269943","Toward the development of a conceptual framework for the complex interaction between environmental changes and rural-urban migration","Mianabadi, Ameneh (Graduate University of Advanced Technology); Davary, Kamran (Ferdowsi University of Mashhad); Mianabadi, Hojjat (Tarbiat Modares University); Kolahi, Mahdi (Ferdowsi University of Mashhad); Mostert, E. (TU Delft Water Resources)","","2023","Environmental changes can result in dramatic increases in human migration as households become unable to adapt to such changes. Addressing environmental migration is a complex puzzle that can become a wicked problem. Despite the growing literature on the nexus between environmental change and migration, the inextricable link between nature and society has made it difficult to establish causal relations between the two. To examine the relationship between environmental change and migration, it is necessary to develop a conceptual model that includes environmental changes as potential causes of rural-urban migration (RUM). Such a model should be built on an enhanced understanding of the different factors that stimulate environmentally induced RUM. This paper proposes such a model, focusing on loss of agricultural land, loss of agricultural productivity and the economic repercussions of these losses. The model is based on the model of Perch-Nielsen et al. but extends this model by incorporating additional factors. In our model, the three leading causes of RUM are climate change, human maladaptive activities, and hydro-climatic disasters (the push factors). In addition, there may be pull factors in the cities. RUM may be counteracted or reduced by governmental policy and individuals' characteristics. The model was applied to Iran. The results show that the model can help to bridge the knowledge gap regarding environmentally induced RUM and may inform policymaking on RUM and related issues, such as environmental management and adaptation to climate change.","climate change; environmental migration; human maladaptive activities; hydro-climatic disasters; rural-urban migration","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:68321a61-d43e-469d-a598-1f9621d8057b","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:68321a61-d43e-469d-a598-1f9621d8057b","The projection of climate change impact on the fatigue damage of offshore floating photovoltaic structures","Zou, Tao (Ocean University of China; Jiangsu University of Science and Technology); Niu, Xinbo (Jiangsu University of Science and Technology); Ji, Xingda (Ocean University of China; Jiangsu University of Science and Technology); Chen, X. (TU Delft Offshore and Dredging Engineering); Tao, Longbin (Ocean University of China; University of Strathclyde; Jiangsu University of Science and Technology)","","2023","In marine environment, floating photovoltaic (FPV) plants are subjected to wind, wave and current loadings. Waves are the primary source of fatigue damage for FPVs. The climate change may accumulatively affect the wave conditions, which may result in the overestimation or underestimation of fatigue damage. This paper aims to present a projection method to evaluate the climate change impact on fatigue damage of offshore FPVs in the future. Firstly, climate scenarios are selected to project the global radiative forcing level over decadal or century time scales. Secondly, global climate models are coupled to wind driven wave models to project the long-term sea states in the future. At last, fatigue assessment is conducted to evaluate the impact of climate change on fatigue damage of FPVs. A case study is demonstrated in the North Sea. A global-local method of fatigue calculation is utilized to calculate the annual fatigue damage on the FPVs’ joints. The conclusions indicate that there are decreasing trends of significant wave height and annual fatigue damage in the North Sea with the high emission of greenhouse gases. The fatigue design of FPVs based on the current wave scatter diagrams may be conservative in the future. The manufacture cost of FPVs can be reduced to some extent, which is beneficial to the FPV manufacturers.","climate change; fatigue damage; floating photovoltaic; global climate model; wind-driven wave model","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Offshore and Dredging Engineering","","",""
"uuid:6f002567-0744-4c28-931c-32b3467f1be1","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:6f002567-0744-4c28-931c-32b3467f1be1","Centennial Channel Response to Climate Change in an Engineered River","Ylla Arbos, C. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering); Blom, A. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering); Sloff, C.J. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering; Deltares); Schielen, R.M.J. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering; Rijkswaterstaat)","","2023","Human intervention makes river channels adjust their slope and bed surface grain size as they transition to a new equilibrium state in response to engineering measures. Climate change alters the river controls through hydrograph changes and sea level rise. We assess how channel response to climate change compares to channel response to human intervention over this century (2000–2100), focusing on a 300-km reach of the Rhine River. We set up a schematized numerical model representative of the current (1990–2020), non-graded state of the river, and subject it to scenarios for the hydrograph, sediment flux, and sea level rise. We conclude that the lower Rhine River will continue to adjust to past channelization measures in 2100 through channel bed incision. This response slows down as the river approaches its new equilibrium state. Channel response to climate change is dominated by hydrograph changes, which increasingly enhance incision, rather than sea level rise.","channel bed incision; channel response; climate change; climate scenarios; gravel-bed rivers; human intervention","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering","","",""
"uuid:36d2123c-cfa6-40c6-92dc-4dcfbd96c501","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:36d2123c-cfa6-40c6-92dc-4dcfbd96c501","Impact of mean sea-level rise on the long-term evolution of a mega-nourishment","Ribas, Francesca (Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya); Portos-Amill, Laura (University of Twente); Falqués, Albert (Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya); Arriaga, Jaime (TU Delft Environmental Fluid Mechanics); Marcos, Marta (University of the Balearic Islands); Ruessink, Gerben (Universiteit Utrecht)","","2023","Mean sea-level rise (MSLR) will induce shoreline recession, increasing the stress on coastal systems of high socio-economic and environmental values. Localized mega-nourishments are meant to alleviate erosion problems by diffusing alongshore over decades and thus feeding adjacent beaches. The 21-st century morphological evolution of the Delfland coast, where the Sand Engine mega-nourishment was built in 2011, was simulated with the Q2Dmorfo model to assess the Sand Engine capacity to protect the area against the effects of MSLR. The calibrated and validated model was forced with historical wave and sea-level data and MSLR projections until 2100 corresponding to different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Results show that the Sand Engine diffusive trend will continue in forthcoming decades, with the feeding effect to adjacent beaches being less noticeable from 2050 onward. Superimposed to this alongshore diffusion, MSLR causes the shoreline to recede because of both passive-flooding and a net offshore sediment transport produced by wave reshaping and gravity. The existing feeding asymmetry enforces more sediment transport to the NE than to the SW, causing the former to remain stable whilst the SW shoreline retreats significantly, especially from 2050 onward. Sediment from the Sand Engine does not reach the beaches located more than 6 km to the SW, with a strong shoreline and profile recession in that area, as well as dune erosion. The uncertainties in the results are dominated by those related to the free model parameters up to 2050 whilst uncertainties in MSLR projections prevail from 2050 to 2100.","Climate change; Global warming; Mega-nourishment; Morphodynamic modelling; MSLR; Sand Engine","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Environmental Fluid Mechanics","","",""
"uuid:04bd80f4-1f95-483a-8e78-d84fad722201","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:04bd80f4-1f95-483a-8e78-d84fad722201","A Systematic Approach to Improve Reliability of Storm Surge Barrier Closures","Mooyaart, L.F. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk); Bakker, A.M.R. (Rijkswaterstaat); van den Bogaard, J.A. (Rijkswaterstaat); Jonkman, Sebastiaan N. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk)","Brito, Mario P. (editor); Aven, Terje (editor); Baraldi, Piero (editor); Cepin, Marko (editor); Zio, Enrico (editor)","2023","Coastal defenses must be upgraded to combat increasing flood risk due to climate change and other factors. Storm surge barriers, large movable hydraulic structures that close temporarily during storm surges to prevent coastal floods, play a vital role in protecting estuaries. Due to the complexity of their risk analyses, important improvements are sometimes overseen. Our objective is to develop a systematic approach which is more likely to find these important improvements. We tested the method to three historic cases where important improvements were initially overlooked. We anticipate that our method can be applied to other safety systems with a large number of failure modes as well.","Climate change adaptation; risk reduction measures; coastal flood; safety system","en","conference paper","Research Publishing","","","","","Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.","","2024-03-08","","","Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk","","",""
"uuid:727bf626-c2d5-4be3-9b63-fc751cd3cd9b","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:727bf626-c2d5-4be3-9b63-fc751cd3cd9b","Global Projections of Storm Surges Using High-Resolution CMIP6 Climate Models","Muis, Sanne (Deltares; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H. (Deltares; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Antolínez, José A. Á. (TU Delft Coastal Engineering); Dullaart, Job C. (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Erikson, Li (Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center); Haarsma, Rein J. (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)); Apecechea, Maialen Irazoqui (Mercator Ocean); Mengel, Matthias (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research); Verlaan, M. (TU Delft Mathematical Physics; Deltares)","","2023","In the coming decades, coastal flooding will become more frequent due to sea-level rise and potential changes in storms. To produce global storm surge projections from 1950 to 2050, we force the Global Tide and Surge Model with a ∼25-km resolution climate model ensemble from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). This is the first time that such a high-resolution ensemble is used to assess changes in future storm surges across the globe. We validate the present epoch (1985–2014) against the ERA5 climate reanalysis, which shows a good overall agreement. However, there is a clear spatial bias with generally a positive bias in coastal areas along semi-enclosed seas and negative bias in equatorial regions. Comparing the future epoch (2021–2050) against the historical epoch (1951–1980), we project ensemble-median changes up to 0.1 (or 20%) in the 1 in 10-year storm surge levels. These changes are not uniform across the globe with decreases along the coast of Mediterranean and northern Africa and southern Australia and increases along the south coast of Australia and Alaska. There are also increases along (parts) of the coasts of northern Caribbean, eastern Africa, China and the Korean peninsula, but with less agreement among the HighResMIP ensemble. Information resulting from this study can be used to inform broad-scale assessment of coastal impacts under future climate change.","climate change; climate projections; extreme sea levels; global climate model; hydrodynamic modeling; storm surge","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Coastal Engineering","","",""
"uuid:d20565f5-b704-487c-9622-afe47ee7efbd","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d20565f5-b704-487c-9622-afe47ee7efbd","Shower thoughts: why scientists should spend more time in the rain","Van Stan, John T. (Cleveland State University); Allen, Scott T. (University of Nevada); Aubrey, Douglas P. (University of Georgia); Carter Berry, Z. (Wake Forest University); Biddick, Matthew (Technische Universität München); Coenders-Gerrits, Miriam (TU Delft Water Resources); Giordani, Paolo (University of Genova); Gotsch, Sybil G. (University of Kentucky); Gutmann, Ethan D. (University Corporation for Atmospheric Research)","","2023","Stormwater is a vital resource and dynamic driver of terrestrial ecosystem processes. However, processes controlling interactions during and shortly after storms are often poorly seen and poorly sensed when direct observations are substituted with technological ones. We discuss how human observations complement technological ones and the benefits of scientists spending more time in the storm. Human observation can reveal ephemeral storm-related phenomena such as biogeochemical hot moments, organismal responses, and sedimentary processes that can then be explored in greater resolution using sensors and virtual experiments. Storm-related phenomena trigger lasting, oversized impacts on hydrologic and biogeochemical processes, organismal traits or functions, and ecosystem services at all scales. We provide examples of phenomena in forests, across disciplines and scales, that have been overlooked in past research to inspire mindful, holistic observation of ecosystems during storms. We conclude that technological observations alone are insufficient to trace the process complexity and unpredictability of fleeting biogeochemical or ecological events without the shower thoughts produced by scientists' human sensory and cognitive systems during storms.","climate change; condensation; ecosystem functioning; extreme event biogeochemistry; field and laboratory studies; precipitation; sampling bias","en","review","","","","","","","","","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:64a44b59-c78e-49c9-bd44-f24aea2fbd6c","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:64a44b59-c78e-49c9-bd44-f24aea2fbd6c","Climate change - induced hazards on touristic island beaches: Cyprus, Eastern Mediterranean","Monioudi, Isavela N. (University of the Aegean); Velegrakis, Adonis F. (University of the Aegean); Chatzistratis, Dimitris (University of the Aegean); Vousdoukas, Michalis I. (University of the Aegean); Savva, Christos (University of the Aegean); Wang, Dandan (Zhejiang Ocean University); Bove, Gerald (State University of New York at Oneonta); Paprotny, D. (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research); Morales Napoles, O. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk)","","2023","This contribution presents an assessment at a regional (island) scale of the beach erosion due to storm events under Climate Change. The approach adopted to assess beach erosion at the island scale consisted of three modules. First, the location, dimensions and other attributes of the Cypriot beaches were recorded on the basis of widely-available satellite imagery. Secondly, sea levels and waves were modeled along the coast under different climatic scenarios and dates in the 21st century. Finally, using these projections beach retreat due to the relative mean sea level rise (RSLR) and extreme sea levels (ESLs) was estimated using ensembles of analytical and numerical cross-shore morphodynamic models, respectively. Extreme sea levels (ESLs) were projected to (a) increase by up to 60% in 2100 from their baseline (2000) levels, and (b) vary along the coast, with the highest ESLs (and corresponding waves) projected for the southern and western coasts. The mostly narrow Cypriot beaches (91% recorded maximum widths of < 50 m) showed increased exposure to erosion. In 2100, about 47% and 72% (based on the median model estimates) of the 241 unprotected Cypriot beaches will be permanently eroded, due to mean sea level rise (SLR), to 50% of their present maximum width, depending on the scenario. In addition to the long-term erosion due to SLR, severe storm erosion is projected by 2050 even under the RCP4.5 scenario; the 100-year extreme sea level event (ESL100) may overwhelm (at least temporarily) 49% of the currently unprotected Cypriot beaches without effective adaptation responses, with the most exposed beaches located along the northern coast. As the beach carrying capacity and hedonic value will be severely compromised, effective adaptation policies and technical measures will be urgently required.","beach erosion; climate change impacts; extreme sea levels; island beaches; sea level rise; shoreline retreat","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk","","",""
"uuid:985c08f8-6206-43c0-9f3d-ae16ba89f1c2","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:985c08f8-6206-43c0-9f3d-ae16ba89f1c2","Enhanced olivine dissolution in seawater through continuous grain collisions","Flipkens, Gunter (Universiteit Antwerpen); Fuhr, Michael (GEOMAR Helmholtz Center for Ocean Research); Fiers, Géraldine (Universiteit Gent); Meysman, F.J.R. (TU Delft BT/Environmental Biotechnology; Universiteit Antwerpen); Town, Raewyn M. (Universiteit Antwerpen); Blust, Ronny (Universiteit Antwerpen)","","2023","Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies at a gigaton scale need to be developed and implemented within the next decades to keep global warming below 1.5 °C. Coastal enhanced silicate weathering is one of the proposed CDR techniques that aims to accelerate the natural process of CO2-sequestration during marine chemical weathering of silicate minerals. To this end, finely ground rock containing olivine (MgxFe2− xSiO4) could be dispersed in dynamic coastal environments, where local biotic and abiotic factors potentially enhance the weathering process. However, accurate predictions of the olivine dissolution rate and the associated CO2 sequestration under in situ conditions are currently lacking and ecosystem impacts remain to be assessed. Previously, it has been hypothesized that in situ grain collisions, induced by bed load transport due to currents and waves, could accelerate the in situ chemical weathering of olivine particles. To examine this, we investigated the effects of continuous grain tumbling on olivine dissolution in natural seawater. A 70-day experiment was conducted in which forsterite olivine sand was continuously tumbled in filtered seawater at different rotation speeds, and dissolution rates were measured on a weekly basis. Results showed that continuously tumbled olivine dissolved 8 to 19 times faster compared to stagnant (no rotation) conditions. Olivine dissolution was complete and stoichiometric (except for Ni release), air-seawater CO2 exchange was not significantly rate limiting, and minimal particle fragmentation and secondary mineral formation were observed. Hence, we infer that olivine weathering was mainly enhanced via advective pore water flushing, which limits saturation effects at the grain scale. Overall, this study provides evidence that ambient physical stresses in coastal environments could enhance marine silicate weathering, which has implications for both the natural silicon cycle as well as the use of enhanced coastal weathering of silicates as a CDR technique.","Climate change mitigation; Ocean alkalinization; Olivine; Silicate weathering","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","BT/Environmental Biotechnology","","",""
"uuid:9b1738f7-1501-437b-8aaf-8b38453caa94","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:9b1738f7-1501-437b-8aaf-8b38453caa94","Testing and Monitoring of Earth Structures","Cardoso, Rafaela (Lisbon Technical University); Ramon-Tarragona, Anna (Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya); Lourenço, Sérgio (The University of Hong Kong); Mendes, João (University of Northumbria); Caruso, Marco (Politecnico di Milano); Jommi, C. (TU Delft Geo-engineering; Politecnico di Milano)","Chastre, Carlos (editor); Neves, José (editor); Ribeiro, Diogo (editor); Graça Neves, Maria (editor); Faria, Paulina (editor)","2023","Monitoring structural behavior of earth structures during construction and in service is a common practice done for safety reasons, consolidation control and maintenance needs. Several are the techniques available for measuring displacements, water pressures and total stresses, not only in these geotechnical structures but also at their foundations. Materials testing has been used for calibrating models for structural design and behavior prediction, and these models can be validated with instrumentation data as well. Relatively recent investigation on the behavior of these materials considering their degree of saturation focuses on monitoring the evolution of water content or suction as function of soil-atmosphere interaction, necessary to predict cyclic and/or accumulated displacements, and has huge potential to predict the impact of climate changes on the performance of existing geotechnical structures. This new need justifies the investment on developing sensors able to be used for in situ monitoring of water in the soils, such as those presented here. Testing and monitoring becomes even more important nowadays when, for sustainability purposes, traditional construction materials are replaced by other geo-materials with unknown behavior and long-term performance (mainly accumulated displacements). Existing experimental protocols and monitoring equipment are used for such cases, however new techniques must be developed to deal with particular behaviors. Three case studies are presented and discussion is made on monitoring equipment used and how monitored data helped understanding the behaviors observed.","Accumulated displacements; Chemical properties; Climate changes; Mineralogy; Monitoring; Non-traditional geo-materials; Suction","en","book chapter","Springer","","","","","Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.","","2023-07-01","","","Geo-engineering","","",""
"uuid:f1aaee37-2828-4498-ada5-4804a8aee967","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:f1aaee37-2828-4498-ada5-4804a8aee967","Climate Adaptation in Urban Regeneration: A Cross-Scale Digital Design Workflow","Ricci, Diletta (TU Delft Design & Construction Management; Sapienza University of Rome); Morganti, Michele (Sapienza University of Rome)","","2023","Urban vulnerability has many facets. Among these, urban texture and plot pattern, building massing and density, greatly affect the microclimate. Thence, redefining urban regeneration design criteria for climate neutrality is crucial, including environmental factors in the design process at different scales. In the light of climate change, despite this urgent call, adaptive design approaches useful to assess trade-offs between urban regeneration scenarios and microclimate quality are lacking. This paper introduces a novel digital design workflow that integrates climate quality and associated indicators in urban and building design, adopting a cross-scale approach. The main goal is to increase the resilience of the built environment in the foresight of future scenarios, by promoting climate-sensitive design solutions. Environmental performances were analysed using digital tools and implemented in a design workflow, allowing urban microclimate analysis. Performance metrics were calculated using Urban Weather Generator and Energy Plus. With the former tool a climate performance comparative study has been run in different scenarios, by varying morphological parameters and computing the intensity of the Urban Heat Island. While, Energy Plus was used to simulate the impact of building form and UHI on building energy demand, highlighting the interdependence of different design scales and addressing optimal building performance. The results provide additional levels of knowledge, both in terms of analysis and design scenario evaluation: urban metrics and climate impacts, building form and envelope design, adaptation solutions. This workflow is tested and a scenario suitability for the Mediterranean city is shown, exploiting the research-by-design transformations of 22@ Innovation District of Barcelona. The paper highlights the correlation between microclimate and design solutions and lays the foundations for a climate/design cross-talk to help policymakers and practitioners achieve urban climate adaptation goals.","Adaptive design; urban microclimate; Climate change; urban vulnerability","en","conference paper","Springer","","","","","","","","","","Design & Construction Management","","",""
"uuid:efd6ec44-cecf-4df8-878a-2823a86042aa","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:efd6ec44-cecf-4df8-878a-2823a86042aa","Salt Intrusion Around the World Under Influence of Climate Change","Kranenburg, W.M. (TU Delft Environmental Fluid Mechanics; Deltares); van Keulen, Daan (Deltares; Wageningen University & Research); Gerritsma, A. (TU Delft Mathematical Physics; Wageningen University & Research); Huismans, Y. (TU Delft Coastal Engineering; Deltares)","Habersack, Helmut (editor); Tritthart, Michael (editor); Waldenberger, Lisa (editor)","2023","We investigate the changes in surface water salinity intrusion lengths for estuaries around the world under influence of climate change. To do this, we make use of information from global data sets on present river geometry and present and predicted future river discharges, mean sea levels and tidal ranges, which we combine with various models for salt intrusion lengths. The used predictions are based on the RCP8.5 climate scenario and we use 2050 as time horizon, with the 10-percentile lowest discharge as representative value used as input in the intrusion length calculations. The salt intrusion models are two parametric descriptions and a semi-analytical model. With this, we calculate absolute and relative changes in salt intrusion length for a selection of estuaries around the world, to eventually scale up the analysis and develop a global map of changes in salt intrusion around the world under influence of climate change. The results so far indicate that many estuaries may be expected to experience a relative increase of salt intrusion length of over 10%. We also investigate which of the changing forcings most strongly affects the intrusion lengths and what type of estuary is most sensitive to changes. For most systems, the changes in river discharge characteristics are the most influential change, exceeding the influence of sea level rise. This study highlights the importance of studying the effect of climate change on estuarine salt intrusion in more detail, both in global analyses as in system specific detailed studies.","Salinity intrusion; Estuaries; Climate change; Projections; Droughts","en","conference paper","International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research","","","","","Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.","","2024-05-28","","","Environmental Fluid Mechanics","","",""
"uuid:df47de4c-2523-40a3-8688-3c42b00b416a","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:df47de4c-2523-40a3-8688-3c42b00b416a","How Do Bifurcations in Engineered Rivers Respond to Sea level Rise?","Chowdhury, M. Kifayath (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering); Blom, A. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering); Ylla Arbos, C. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering); Schielen, R.M.J. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering; Rijkswaterstaat)","","2023","River bifurcations divide the water and sediment over two downstream branches or bifurcates. As the changing climate adjusts the boundary conditions (i.e., base level, hydrograph, and sediment flux) for bifurcations, it will affect their flow and sediment partitioning over the bifurcates. Our objective is to provide insight into the response of a bifurcation to sea level rise (SLR). To this end, we compare the response of an idealized bifurcation in an engineered river (i.e., with a fixed planform and width) to SLR to the one of a single channel, using a one-dimensional numerical model system.","River bifurcation; Sea Level Rise; Climate change","en","abstract","","","","","","Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.","","2024-03-28","","","Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering","","",""
"uuid:ff7b419c-aba7-49ed-99dd-c427762abf84","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:ff7b419c-aba7-49ed-99dd-c427762abf84","Enabling yeast replication in extreme cold and heat","Laman Trip, J.D.S. (TU Delft BN/Greg Bokinsky Lab; TU Delft BN/Bionanoscience)","Youk, H.O. (promotor); Blanter, Y.M. (promotor); Bokinsky, G.E. (copromotor); Delft University of Technology (degree granting institution)","2022","Open questions are whether life can be enabled in uninhabitable environments, and whether there is a limit to howmuch one can tune the speed of proliferation. Answering such questions has broad implications. It may reveal whether we can live in unforeseen habitats, whether we can slow down aging, and whether there are limits to lifespan. In this dissertation, we explore such questions for the budding yeast by changing the temperature. We will use temperature, a physical parameter, as a knob to tune the speed of cellular life. Temperature affects all organisms and habitats, and is of contemporary interest in light of climate change. Indeed, cells of microbes, plants and cold-blooded animals often endure temperatures that can be considered extreme. For reference, budding yeast lives comfortably at 30 ◦C and has a doubling time of roughly 1.5 hours – the time a cell needs to grow and divide into two cells. During our studies, we will elucidate the common principles that govern the life of yeast at extreme temperatures – how a cell survives, grows, replicates, ages, and dies. We combine models, experiments and measurements of single cells and at amolecular level, and integrate these into a systems-level view of the life of yeast at extreme temperatures..","yeast; temperature; reactive oxygen species; glutathione; proliferation; cooperation; lifespan; design principles; systems biology; aging; climate change","en","doctoral thesis","","978-90-8593-522-3","","","","","","2022-06-08","","BN/Bionanoscience","BN/Greg Bokinsky Lab","","",""
"uuid:7ffb2a0e-9300-4afd-9e63-20bf7a9a492c","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:7ffb2a0e-9300-4afd-9e63-20bf7a9a492c","Sustainability of mining activities in the European Mediterranean region in terms of a spatial groundwater stress index","Varouchakis, Emmanouil A. (Technical University of Crete); Corzo Perez, GA (TU Delft Water Resources; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education); Diaz-Loaiza, Andres (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk); Spanoudaki, Katerina (Foundation for Research and Technology - Hellas (FORTH))","","2022","Mining activities depend significantly on water resources availability as it consists a major tool of the extraction, processing and the post closure mining operations. Especially, groundwater is the major water source in most mining areas. However, overexploitation, competition from the communities and climate change effects have caused significant stress on the groundwater resources in many areas of the Mediterranean basin. The sustainability of mining operations is threatened as well as the uninterrupted supply of raw materials to the industry. In this work spatial estimation and analysis of groundwater stress at hydrological basin-scale in the European part of the Mediterranean region is applied using local and global datasets. Aquifer productivity index and groundwater use information at monitoring sites are extracted from the River Basin Management Plans of the European Environment Agency, while groundwater recharge is considered from the World-wide Hydrogeological Mapping and Assessment Program (WHYMAP) after validation. The processing of these data using the Self Organized Maps technique and their integration within a novel function, provide the groundwater stress index. The output of this work can be used for governance and management decisions that will improve groundwater resources availability in vulnerable areas ensuring the sustainable use from the communities and the industry.","Climate change; Groundwater stress; Mining activities; Self-organized maps; Water scarcity","en","journal article","","","","","","Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.","","2023-07-01","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:d9722f27-fe58-4467-9687-c51b420b6b05","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d9722f27-fe58-4467-9687-c51b420b6b05","Uncertainties in the Projected Patterns of Wave-Driven Longshore Sediment Transport Along a Non-straight Coastline","Zarifsanayei, Amin Reza (Griffith University); Antolínez, José A. Á. (TU Delft Coastal Engineering); Etemad-Shahidi, Amir (Edith Cowan University; Griffith University); Cartwright, Nick (Griffith University); Strauss, Darrell (Griffith University); Lemos, Gil (University of Lisbon)","","2022","This study quantifies the uncertainties in the projected changes in potential longshore sediment transport (LST) rates along a non-straight coastline. Four main sources of uncertainty, including the choice of emission scenarios, Global Circulation Model-driven offshore wave datasets (GCM-Ws), LST models, and their non-linear interactions were addressed through two ensemble modelling frameworks. The first ensemble consisted of the offshore wave forcing conditions without any bias correction (i.e., wave parameters extracted from eight datasets of GCM-Ws for baseline period 1979–2005, and future period 2081–2100 under two emission scenarios), a hybrid wave transformation method, and eight LST models (i.e., four bulk formulae, four process-based models). The differentiating factor of the second ensemble was the application of bias correction to the GCM-Ws, using a hindcast dataset as the reference. All ensemble members were weighted according to their performance to reproduce the reference LST patterns for the baseline period. Additionally, the total uncertainty of the LST projections was decomposed into the main sources and their interactions using the ANOVA method. Finally, the robustness of the LST projections was checked. Comparison of the projected changes in LST rates obtained from two ensembles indicated that the bias correction could relatively reduce the ranges of the uncertainty in the LST projections. On the annual scale, the contribution of emission scenarios, GCM-Ws, LST models and non-linear interactions to the total uncertainty was about 10–20, 35–50, 5–15, and 30–35%, respectively. Overall, the weighted means of the ensembles reported a decrease in net annual mean LST rates (less than 10% under RCP 4.5, a 10–20% under RCP 8.5). However, no robust projected changes in LST rates on annual and seasonal scales were found, questioning any ultimate decision being made using the means of the projected changes.","uncertainty; longshore sediment transport; ensemble modelling; climate change; projection of wavedriven sediment transport patterns; robustness of projections","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Coastal Engineering","","",""
"uuid:354869ca-620d-4c84-9292-bbf4ba04a230","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:354869ca-620d-4c84-9292-bbf4ba04a230","The Effect of Wind Stress on Seasonal Sea-Level Change on the Northwestern European Shelf","Hermans, T.H.J. (TU Delft Physical and Space Geodesy; NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research); Katsman, C.A. (TU Delft Environmental Fluid Mechanics); Machado Lima de Camargo, C. (TU Delft Physical and Space Geodesy; NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research); Garner, Gregory G. (The State University of New Jersey); Kopp, Robert E. (The State University of New Jersey); Slangen, Aimée B.A. (NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research)","","2022","Projections of relative sea level change (RSLC) are commonly reported at an annual mean basis. The seasonality of RSLC is often not considered, even though it may modulate the impacts of annual mean RSLC. Here, we study seasonal differences in twenty-first-century ocean dynamic sea level change (DSLC; 2081–2100 minus 1995–2014) on the Northwestern European Shelf (NWES) and their drivers, using an ensemble of 33 CMIP6 models complemented with experiments performed with a regional ocean model. For the high-end emissions scenario SSP5–8.5, we find substantial seasonal differences in ensemble mean DSLC, especially in the southeastern North Sea. For example, at Esbjerg (Denmark), winter mean DSLC is on average 8.4 cm higher than summer mean DSLC. Along all coasts on the NWES, DSLC is higher in winter and spring than in summer and autumn. For the low-end emissions scenario SSP1–2.6, these seasonal differences are smaller. Our experiments indicate that the changes in winter and summer sea level anomalies are mainly driven by regional changes in wind stress anomalies, which are generally southwesterly and east-northeasterly over the NWES, respectively. In spring and autumn, regional wind stress changes play a smaller role. We also show that CMIP6 models not resolving currents through the English Channel cannot accurately simulate the effect of seasonal wind stress changes on the NWES. Our results imply that using projections of annual mean RSLC may underestimate the projected changes in extreme coastal sea levels in spring and winter. Additionally, changes in the seasonal sea level cycle may affect groundwater dynamics and the inundation characteristics of intertidal ecosystems.","Climate change; Climate models; Ocean models; Sea level; Seasonal cycle; Seasonal effects; Wind effects; Wind stress","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Physical and Space Geodesy","","",""
"uuid:4a2a40a1-0db3-4303-bd22-f96414268d70","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:4a2a40a1-0db3-4303-bd22-f96414268d70","Cascading effects of sustained low water on inland shipping","Vinke, Frederik R.S. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering; Rijkswaterstaat); van Koningsveld, M. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering; Van Oord Dredging and Marine Contractors B.V.); van Dorsser, Cornelis (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering; Trends and Transport B.V.); Baart, F. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering; Deltares); van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (TU Delft Safety and Security Science); Vellinga, T. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering)","","2022","The river Rhine is one of Europe’s busiest waterways and is part of the Rhine-Alpine corridor. In 2018 the river experienced a severe low discharge extreme. This impacted the river’s transport capacity for a period of several months, causing shortages of source materials and fuels in regions far in-land. Historically, prolonged droughts of this magnitude are not uncommon. Concerns have been raised, however, that climate change may further increase their frequency and severity. Additionally the increased proportion of larger vessels in the overall fleet composition has made the supply of cargo via the river Rhine more vulnerable to reduced water depths. A better understanding of the risks and effects of sustained low water levels for Inland Waterway Transport network performance is therefore essential to enable sensible mitigation. An integral model that explicitly links the state of the river to supply chain performance at the scale of corridors, however, appears to be not yet available. This paper suggests a novel method to explicitly include the cascading effects of low discharge events (and mitigating measures) in climate risk assessments of waterborne supply chain performance, at system level. It is shown that its implementation can describe cascading effects and climate risks for fleet management and terminal operation.","Inland Waterway Transport; Supply chain performance; Drought; Cascading effects; Climate Change","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering","","",""
"uuid:1eb65167-693e-4a05-b078-ded793046e26","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:1eb65167-693e-4a05-b078-ded793046e26","Indoor Summer Thermal Comfort in a Changing Climate: The Case of a Nearly Zero Energy House in Wallonia (Belgium)","Dartevelle, Olivier (Université Catholique de Louvain); Altomonte, Sergio (Université Catholique de Louvain); Masy, Gabrielle (Université Catholique de Louvain); Mlecnik, E. (TU Delft Real Estate Management); van Moeseke, Geoffrey (Université Catholique de Louvain)","","2022","While the potential impact of climate change mitigation measures is well documented in building sciences literature, there are only relatively sparse studies focusing on the efficiency of adaptation strategies. This paper aims to contribute to this topic by evaluating the extent to which the design of a typical nearly Zero Energy Buildling (nZEB) house in Wallonia (Belgium), and its current operation, could provide summer thermal comfort in a changing climate. Based on calibrated whole building energy simulations, and on the integration of future climate data directly derived from a high-resolution climate model, this study evaluates the potential evolution of overheating risks in the living room and in the main bedroom of the house. Discussing the compliance with existing overheating criteria, the study shows that the passive strategies currently deployed in the house might not be sufficient to guarantee summer thermal comfort especially in the bedroom, and that other strategies might be necessary in the future to limit the use of active cooling systems and curb their environmental impacts. This study concludes that considering the potential of these strategies to guarantee summer thermal comfort in a changing climate should be a priority for the design of nZEB houses (and their related policies) also in temperate oceanic climates.","nearly Zero Energy Buildings; climate change; summer thermal comfort; overheating","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Real Estate Management","","",""
"uuid:229c0848-7345-48aa-ae29-6fda46dde267","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:229c0848-7345-48aa-ae29-6fda46dde267","Case Study for Testing the Validity of NOx-Ozone Algorithmic Climate Change Functions for Optimising Flight Trajectories","Rao, P.V. (TU Delft Aircraft Noise and Climate Effects); Yin, F. (TU Delft Aircraft Noise and Climate Effects); Grewe, V. (TU Delft Aircraft Noise and Climate Effects; Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Yamashita, Hiroshi (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Jöckel, Patrick (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Matthes, Sigrun (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Mertens, Mariano (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Frömming, Christine (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR))","","2022","One possibility to reduce the climate impact of aviation is the avoidance of climate-sensitive regions, which is synonymous with climate-optimised flight planning. Those regions can be identified by algorithmic Climate Change Functions (aCCFs) for nitrogen oxides (NOx), water vapour (H2O) as well as contrail cirrus, which provide a measure of climate effects associated with corresponding emissions. In this study, we evaluate the effectiveness of reducing the aviation-induced climate impact via ozone (O3) formation (resulting from NOx emissions), when solely using O3 aCCFs for the aircraft trajectory optimisation strategy. The effectiveness of such a strategy and the associated potential mitigation of climate effects is explored by using the chemistry–climate model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy) with various submodels. A summer and winter day, characterised by a large spatial variability of the O3 aCCFs, are selected. A one-day air traffic simulation is performed in the European airspace on those selected days to obtain both cost-optimised and climate-optimised aircraft trajectories, which more specifically minimised a NOx-induced climate effect of O3 (O3 aCCFs). The air traffic is laterally and vertically re-routed separately to enable an evaluation of the influences of the horizontal and vertical pattern of O3 aCCFs. The resulting aviation NOx emissions are then released in an atmospheric chemistry–climate simulation to simulate the contribution of these NOx emissions to atmospheric O3 and the resulting O3 change. Within this study, we use O3-RF as a proxy for climate impact. The results confirm that the climate-optimised flights lead to lower O3-RF compared to the cost-optimised flights, although the aCCFs cannot reproduce all aspects of the significant impact of the synoptic situation on the transport of emitted NOx. Overall, the climate impact is higher for the selected summer day than for the selected winter day. Lateral re-routing shows a greater potential to reduce climate impact compared to vertical re-routing for the chosen flight altitude. We find that while applying the O3 aCCFs in trajectory optimisation can reduce the climate impact, there are certain discrepancies in the prediction of O3 impact from aviation NOx emissions, as seen for the summer day. Although the O3 aCCFs concept is a rough simplification in estimating the climate impact of a local NOx emission, it enables a reasonable first estimate. Further research is required to better describe the O3 aCCFs allowing an improved estimate in the Average Temperature Response (ATR) of O3 from aviation NOx emissions. A general improvement in the scientific understanding of non-CO2 aviation effects could make climate-optimised flight planning practically feasible","climate impact; aviation; NOx-O3 effects; meteorology; algorithmic climate change functions","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Aircraft Noise and Climate Effects","","",""
"uuid:96029f9d-528f-4a00-877a-3693275ef259","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:96029f9d-528f-4a00-877a-3693275ef259","Mid-Century Channel Response to Climate Change in the Lower Rhine River","Ylla Arbos, C. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering); Blom, A. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering); Schielen, R.M.J. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering; Rijkswaterstaat)","Blom, Astrid (editor); Stancanelli, Laura M. (editor); Dercksen, Jelle A. (editor); Ylla Arbós, Clàudia (editor); Chowdhury, M. Kifayath (editor); Ahrendt, Shelby M. (editor); Piccoli, Carolina (editor); Schielen, Ralph M.J. (editor); Sloff, Kees (editor); Slinger, Jill H. (editor)","2022","","Climate Change; Lower Rhine River; Channel Respons","en","conference paper","","","","","","","","","","","Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering","","",""
"uuid:d8b8bb47-4d77-4af9-be9c-1764a08fee18","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d8b8bb47-4d77-4af9-be9c-1764a08fee18","Altered spaces: new ways of seeing and envisioning nature with Minecraft","McNally, Brenda (Dublin City University); de Andrade, Bruno (TU Delft Heritage & Values)","","2022","The climate crisis has inspired youth-led activism across the world and young people now lead global campaigns and political protest on climate justice. However, aside from news media coverage of youth activism and the attendant focus on young people’s hand-drawn protest placards, relatively little is known about young people’s views on the actions needed to respond to the climate crisis or how they imagine environmentally-sustainable futures. This visual essay addresses that lacuna by exploring young people’s ideas about local climate actions. The images selected for consideration were created using Minecraft, the 3D block-building visualisation game, at workshops held in Ireland. Young people and their families were invited to create environmentally-sustainable futures at Minecraft workshops. Exploring these 3D designs as images, the essay documents young people’s visual representations of desirable climate actions and reflects on these Minecraft images to shed light on how young people envision alternative climate futures. These collective visions, or climate imaginaries, are powerful indicators of what young people imagine is possible in the future. In doing so, they present an alternative to the mainstream news and entertainment media preoccupation with dystopian constructions of the climate crisis. They also highlight the power of Minecraft as a visual medium to open up new ways of seeing nature and of envisioning nature-society relations. The selected images were also exhibited as part of the CLIMATE Look Lab 2022 held at the Open Eye Gallery, Liverpool. The gallery invited researchers, community groups and artists to use the gallery as a lab space to engage visitors with our changing environment and to explore how images can change the visual narrative on climate change.","Minecraft; Nature; Climate Change; Youth Engagement; Sustainability; Geogames; Visualisation; visual culture; Game and simulations; game-based learning; Gameful design","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Heritage & Values","","",""
"uuid:4ba23271-5f19-416e-bb76-49e50947f48c","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:4ba23271-5f19-416e-bb76-49e50947f48c","Climate Change and Resilient Rail Freight Transport","Vleugel, J (TU Delft Transport and Planning); Bal, F","Casares, Juan (editor)","2022","Rail freight transport is a key economic activity; many businesses and people rely on it. It should be available when needed and efficient in use. There are however factors that may reduce the availability and quality of a rail freight service offering. A distinction can be made between what may be called systemic factors, like congestion, accidents and technical failures, and external factors like weather conditions and natural disasters. Rail infrastructure managers and users of rail services have learned from experience to anticipate or adapt to systemic factors. They are, to some extent, also able to cope with certain weather conditions. A rather different situation occurs when the weather becomes more extreme and less predictable. Water management systems are usually not developed for excess amounts of rain and hence will fail. Terrestrial water can turn into a devastating flood that may (temporarily) incapacitate railway infrastructure. With this (partially) out of service, freight trains have to be rerouted. This may lead to severe delays, additional costs and externalities, in particular more emissions. This paper deals with the question: What are options for governments to make rail freight transport more resilient to disruptions triggered by climate change, while limiting the externalities caused by rerouting? The paper is an extension of earlier research on this topic. Methods used in the research were a case study, the data of which were fed into a simulation model, which was used to estimate route length, fuel consumption and emissions. The main outcome of the study is that there are interesting options to make rail freight transport networks more resilient. In order to reap their benefits, interoperability should be improved considerably.","Climate change; resilience; transport operations; modelling","en","conference paper","WIT Press","","","","","","","","","","Transport and Planning","","",""
"uuid:3847deb2-0ea7-4f43-b60f-78752613eaaa","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:3847deb2-0ea7-4f43-b60f-78752613eaaa","On the Interpretation and Measurement of Technology-Adjusted Emissions Embodied in Trade","Darwili, A.G. (TU Delft Economics of Technology and Innovation); Schröder, E. (TU Delft Economics of Technology and Innovation)","","2022","We propose a new method for standardizing the production technology at the world average level and derive interpretations for the resulting carbon emission concepts. The technology-adjusted emission balance measures net weak carbon leakage defined as the difference between the foreign emissions avoided by exports and the foreign emissions generated by imports. We use global multi-regional input–output tables to document the variable’s spatio-temporal variation for 49 economies between 1995 and 2015. There is a positive cross-country correlation between net leakage and per-capita income. Changes in net leakage are generally small and do not account for country-specific emission trends, that is, domestic emission decreases were not offset by foreign emission increases.","Carbon; Climate change; CO2; Decoupling; Displacement; Emissions; Global value chains; Input–output; Leakage; Offshoring; Outsourcing; Trade","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Economics of Technology and Innovation","","",""
"uuid:00b82b36-3a46-479b-b93b-ce1c5c2b5dc3","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:00b82b36-3a46-479b-b93b-ce1c5c2b5dc3","Design Actions for Shifting Conditions","","Cavallo, R. (editor); Berlingieri, F. (editor); de Boer, J.J. (editor); Corradi, Emilia (editor)","2022","Beyond the urgency of rethinking XX-century urbanization characterized by endless structural expansion strategy, we need to engage urban systems by means of emerging concepts of adaptability and systemic transitions due to climate change effects. Emission reduction and spatial compactness, reuse and recycle, flexibility and complex balances have a profound impact on the spatial dimension and the quality of the urban environment, therefore architectural and urban design are deeply involved in facing ecological transitions and envisioning new strategies to implement the quality of the cities we live in.
How to face these emergent challenges? What are the ongoing design strategies for climate change effects? what will be the role of design in transitional systems? Do we recognize it as an opportunity to improve the public space?
Design Actions for Shifting Condition is a collaborative effort, and aims to present, from an architectural and urban design point of view, methodologies, practices, and approaches to overcome existing and new fragilities for Cities in Times of Transition.
2Intensity of the Underground Biomethanation Process","Farajzadeh, R. (TU Delft Reservoir Engineering; Shell Global Solutions International B.V.); Lomans, Bartholomeus Petrus (Shell Global Solutions International B.V.; Wageningen University & Research); Hajibeygi, H. (TU Delft Reservoir Engineering); Bruining, J. (TU Delft Reservoir Engineering)","","2022","This paper presents an assessment of the life-cycle exergetic efficiency and CO2 footprint of the underground biomethanation process. The subsurface formation, hosting microorganisms required for the reaction, is utilized to convert CO2 and green (produced from renewable energy) hydrogen to the so-called ""green""or synthetic methane. The net exergy gain and CO2 intensity of the biomethanation process are compared to the alternative options of (1) green H2 storage (no energy upgrading process to CH4) and (2) fossil-based CH4 with carbon capture and storage (CCS), i.e., blue CH4. It is found that with the current state of the technology and within the assumptions of this study, the exergy return on the exergy invested for underground biomethanation does not outperform the direct storage and utilization of green H2. The maximum exergetic efficiency of the biomethanation process is calculated to be 15-33% for electricity and 36-47% for heating, while the overall exergetic efficiency of the direct use of H2 for electricity is estimated to be between 20 and 61%. Moreover, the energy produced from the underground biomethanation process has the largest CO2 intensity among the studied options. Depending on the technology used in the CCS and hydrogen production stages, the CO2 intensity of the electricity generated from synthetic CH4 can be as large as 142 g CO2/MJe, which is at least 56-73% larger than those of the two other studied cases.","biomethanation; carbon dioxide; climate change; energy storage; hydrogen; subsurface reactor; synthetic methane","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Reservoir Engineering","","",""
"uuid:274d9e2d-7c0d-479a-8882-963ed4e9a36d","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:274d9e2d-7c0d-479a-8882-963ed4e9a36d","Limitations to coral recovery along an environmental stress gradient","Doropoulos, Christopher (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere); Gómez-Lemos, Luis A. (Universidad Nacional de Colombia); Salee, Kinam (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere); McLaughlin, M. James (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere); Tebben, Jan (Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung); van Koningsveld, M. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering; Van Oord Dredging and Marine Contractors); Feng, Ming (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere); Babcock, Russell C. (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)","","2022","Positive feedbacks driving habitat-forming species recovery and population growth are often lost as ecosystems degrade. For such systems, identifying mechanisms that limit the re-establishment of critical positive feedbacks is key to facilitating recovery. Theory predicts the primary drivers limiting system recovery shift from biological to physical as abiotic stress increases, but recent work has demonstrated that this seldom happens. We combined field and laboratory experiments to identify variation in limitations to coral recovery along an environmental stress gradient at Ningaloo Reef and Exmouth Gulf in northwest Australia. Many reefs in the region are coral depauperate due to recent cyclones and thermal stress. In general, recovery trajectories are prolonged due to limited coral recruitment. Consistent with theory, clearer water reefs under low thermal stress appear limited by biological interactions: competition with turf algae caused high mortality of newly settled corals and upright macroalgal stands drove mortality in transplanted juvenile corals. Laboratory experiments showed a positive relationship between crustose coralline algae cover and coral settlement, but only in the absence of sedimentation. Contrary to expectation, coral recovery does not appear limited by the survival or growth of recruits on turbid reefs under higher thermal stress, but to exceptionally low larval supply. Laboratory experiments showed that larval survival and settlement are unaffected by seawater quality across the study region. Rather, connectivity models predicted that many of the more turbid reefs in the Gulf are predominantly self seeded, receiving limited supply under degraded reef states. Overall, we find that the influence of oceanography can overwhelm the influences of physical and biological interactions on recovery potential at locations where environmental stressors are high, whereas populations in relatively benign physical conditions are predominantly structured by local ecological drivers. Such context-dependent information can help guide expectations and assist managers in optimizing strategies for spatial conservation planning for system recovery.","climate change; coral recruitment; disturbance; population recovery","en","journal article","","","","","","Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.","","2023-07-01","","","Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering","","",""
"uuid:44e77b2e-419c-4329-adcb-c9c20a89d7d3","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:44e77b2e-419c-4329-adcb-c9c20a89d7d3","Learning to understand: disentangling the outcomes of stakeholder participation in climate change governance","Teodoro Morales, J.D. (TU Delft Transport and Logistics; Rijksuniversiteit Groningen); Prell, Christina (Rijksuniversiteit Groningen)","","2022","Stakeholder participation is increasingly seen as beneficial for short and long term responses to climate change risks. Past research highlights the role social networks play as both a key outcome of participation, as well as an important step towards other environmental governance goals. This paper focuses on the social relation of mutual understanding, which is often discussed in the environmental governance literature, but has yet to be studied as an empirical social network in its own right. Our paper builds and tests a conceptual framework linking participation to mutual understanding and social learning. We analyze three waves of network and perceptions data gathered on stakeholders participating in the Integrated Coastal Resiliency Assessment (ICRA) project, a 2.5 year-long project aimed at developing a collaborative research assessment on the vulnerabilities to climate change experienced by an island community located in the Chesapeake Bay, USA. Our findings suggest that participation (measured as co-attendance in project events) leads to the formation of mutual understanding ties among stakeholders, but these ties do not necessarily lead to more similarity in stakeholders’ perceptions on climate change. We reflect on these findings, and the project more broadly, noting that our study lends support to scholars arguing that feelings of mutual understanding are potentially more important for certain forms of collective action, as opposed to whether or not stakeholders increase their shared beliefs or perceptions about the environmental problem in question.","Climate change; Co-evolutionary networks; Cognition; Cognitive Networks; Environmental governance; Mutual understandingSocial influence; Participatory processes; Perception; SAOMs; Social learning; Stakeholder networks; Symmetric networks","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Transport and Logistics","","",""
"uuid:08407877-9a9b-42d7-b7d8-d9f5d31706d4","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:08407877-9a9b-42d7-b7d8-d9f5d31706d4","Sustainable utilization of biomass resources for decentralized energy generation and climate change mitigation: A regional case study in India","Vijay, V. (TU Delft Sanitary Engineering; Indian Institute of Technology Delhi); Kapoor, Rimika (Indian Institute of Technology Delhi); Priyanka Singh, P. (Indian Institute of Technology Delhi); Hiloidhari, Moonmoon (Indian Institute of Technology Bombay); Ghosh, Pooja (Indian Institute of Technology Delhi)","","2022","Clean energy transition via utilizing biomass resources has been projected as an important climate change mitigation strategy. A vital characteristic of biomass is its localized nature; therefore, bioenergy utilization should follow decentralized planning. Agrarian countries like India can take benefit of its large agricultural biomass waste pool to produce clean renewable energy. However, prior knowledge of spatio-temporal distribution, competing uses, and biomass characteristics are necessary for successful bioenergy planning. This paper assesses biomass resource and its power generation potential at different agro-climatic zone levels in the state of Rajasthan, India considering crop residue biomass (25 different crop residues from 14 crops) and livestock manure (from cattle, buffalo, and poultry). Uncertainties associated with the availability of biomass and the power generation potential are assessed for each agro-climatic zone under different scenarios. Greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions from biomass-based power generations are also estimated and compared with biomass-equivalent coal power plants. It is observed that the annual biomass power potential of Rajasthan is 3056 MW (2496 MW from crop residues and 560 MW from livestock manure). Scenario analysis suggests that the potential varies from 2445 to 6045 MW under different biomass availability and power plant operating conditions. Annual GHGs emissions due to biomass power generation is 5053 kt CO2eq. Replacing coal-based power with biomass power would result in annual GHGs savings of 11412 kt CO2eq. The paper also discusses various carriers and barriers viz. logistics, institutional, financial and technical in setting up decentralized bioenergy plants. Outcomes of the present study are expected to assist renewable energy planners in India.","Bioenergy; Biomass; Climate change; Crop residue; Livestock manure","en","journal article","","","","","","Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.","","2023-07-01","","","Sanitary Engineering","","",""
"uuid:2ca709b3-a009-46f4-90ec-f570d37ed357","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:2ca709b3-a009-46f4-90ec-f570d37ed357","A probabilistic climate change assessment for Europe","Moghim, Sanaz (Sharif University of Technology); Teuling, Adriaan J. (Wageningen University & Research); Uijlenhoet, R. (TU Delft Water Resources; TU Delft Water Management; Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management Group; Wageningen University & Research)","","2022","Globally, the impacts of climate change can vary across different regions. This study uses a probability framework to evaluate recent historical (1976–2016) and near-future projected (until 2049) climate change across Europe using Climate Research Unit and ensemble climate model datasets (under RCPs 2.6 and 8.5). A historical assessment shows that although the east and west of the domain experienced the largest and smallest increase in temperature, changes in precipitation are not as smooth as temperature. Results indicate that the maximum changes between distributions of the variables (temperature and precipitation) mainly occur at extreme percentiles (e.g., 10% and 90%). A group analysis of four subregions of Europe, namely east (G1), north (G2), west/south (G3), and UK/Ireland (G4), shows that G1 and G4 are expected to have the largest increase in temperature and precipitation extremes, respectively. Although maximum increases in temperature in G3 and G4 occur at larger percentiles, G1 and G2 experience maximum increases at both large and small percentiles. The maximum increase of precipitation over the study domain, however, occurs mainly at larger extremes. To quantify changes in the distribution of projection (2020–2049) relative to the historical reference (1976–2005), two measures are defined, namely a change in occurrences (KS statistic) and intensities at different quantiles (Δ). Results confirm that the temperature distribution tends to shift to higher temperatures. Changes in distribution and extremes of precipitation are spatially variable. Furthermore, extremes are expected to be intensified under RCP 8.5. The quantile analysis and defined measures reveal changes in the entire probability distribution, reflecting possible climate changes in the future.","climate change; climate indicators; extreme weather events; impact assessment; probabilistic framework; quantile analysis","en","journal article","","","","","","Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.","","2022-09-05","","Water Management","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:36dfeb28-fb2c-4b9e-adde-3a54962b40ad","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:36dfeb28-fb2c-4b9e-adde-3a54962b40ad","What are the drivers of Caspian Sea level variation during the late Quaternary?","Koriche, Sifan A. (University of Reading; Baylor University; JiT| Jimma University; The University of Texas at Austin); Singarayer, Joy S. (University of Reading); Cloke, Hannah L. (University of Reading; Uppsala University; CNDS); Valdes, Paul J. (University of Bristol); Wesselingh, Frank P. (Naturalis Biodiversity Center); Kroonenberg, S.B. (TU Delft Applied Geology); Wickert, Andrew D. (University of Minnesota; Helmholtz Centre Potsdam - GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences); Yanina, Tamara A. (Chemistry Faculty of M. V. Lomonosov Moscow State University)","","2022","Quaternary Caspian Sea level variations depended on geophysical processes (affecting the opening and closing of gateways and basin size/shape) and hydro-climatological processes (affecting water balance). Disentangling the drivers of past Caspian Sea level variation, as well as the mechanisms by which they impacted the Caspian Sea level variation, is much debated. In this study we examine the relative impacts of hydroclimatic change, ice-sheet accumulation and melt, and isostatic adjustment on Caspian Sea level change. We performed model analysis of ice-sheet and hydroclimate impacts on Caspian Sea level and compared these with newly collated published palaeo-Caspian sea level data for the last glacial cycle. We used palaeoclimate model simulations from a global coupled ocean-atmosphere-vegetation climate model, HadCM3, and ice-sheet data from the ICE-6G_C glacial isostatic adjustment model. Our results show that ice-sheet meltwater during the last glacial cycle played a vital role in Caspian Sea level variations, which is in agreement with hypotheses based on palaeo-Caspian Sea level information. The effect was directly linked to the reorganization and expansion of the Caspian Sea palaeo-drainage system resulting from topographic change. The combined contributions from meltwater and runoff from the expanded basin area were primary factors in the Caspian Sea transgression during the deglaciation period between 20 and 15 kyr BP. Their impact on the evolution of Caspian Sea level lasted until around 13 kyr BP. Millennial scale events (Heinrich events and the Younger Dryas) negatively impacted the surface water budget of the Caspian Sea but their influence on Caspian Sea level variation was short-lived and was outweighed by the massive combined meltwater and runoff contribution over the expanded basin.","Caspian sea level; Climate change; Fennoscandian ice sheet; Meltwater; Palaeo-drainage","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Applied Geology","","",""
"uuid:2dcedc31-f819-45bd-a317-5b930bd29cef","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:2dcedc31-f819-45bd-a317-5b930bd29cef","How do waste climate policies contribute to sustainable development? A case study of North Macedonia","Gusheva, E. (TU Delft Energie and Industrie; United Nations Development Programme); Gjorgievski, Vladimir (SS Cyril and Methodius University; International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Skopje); Grncarovska, Teodora Obradovic (Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning, Skopje); Markovska, Natasa (Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts; International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Skopje)","","2022","The impact of waste policies and measures from National Determined Contributions (NDCs) on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is unexamined and creates conditions for policy conflict and incoherence. This participatory case study of North Macedonia quantifies synergies and trade-offs. Our results show twelve times more synergies than trade-offs. The most important synergies concern SDG 8: Decent work and economic growth (score: 10) and SDG 3: Good health and well-being (score: 5) since formalizing the recycling sector is expected to create jobs, economic productivity is expected to improve as a result of increased resource efficiency in industry, and declining pollution is expected to increase health through adequate waste management in landfills. On the other hand, the most important trade-off pertains to SDG 1: No poverty (score: −3) because the incomes of informal workers are expected to decrease, affecting financially vulnerable families. In conclusion, despite being the least emitting sector globally, the waste sector is a promising avenue for mitigating climate change because of its synergistic effects with the SDGs. Circular economy policies in line with the 3Rs: reduce, reuse and recycle hold the most potential for synergies in developing countries. This case study generated momentum for policy implementation by highlighting policy synergies and ideas for the next revision of the NDC. Central to this was the process of fostering dialogue and learning among otherwise siloed policy actors.","Climate change mitigation; Policies and measures; Stakeholders; Sustainable development goals; Waste management","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Energie and Industrie","","",""
"uuid:4617e7a9-f092-483f-ac4c-9d7a8f52123b","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:4617e7a9-f092-483f-ac4c-9d7a8f52123b","The predicted effect of climate change on indoor overheating of heritage apartments in two different Chinese climate zones","Lei, M. (Eindhoven University of Technology); van Hooff, Twan (Eindhoven University of Technology); Blocken, Bert (Eindhoven University of Technology; Katholieke Universiteit Leuven); Pereira Roders, A. (TU Delft Heritage & Values)","","2022","Understanding the effects of climate change on building indoor thermal conditions is of importance for providing a comfortable thermal environment for occupants. Some multi-family dwellings have already been listed as heritage in China (hereinafter referred to as heritage apartments), limiting modifications to the building envelope. However, the effect of climate change on thermal comfort in heritage apartments with a compact interior (i.e. without a living room) built before the 1980s in different Chinese climate zones has seldom been studied. This study focuses on the current and future thermal comfort in two-bedroom heritage apartments in China. The study was conducted for two different Chinese climate zones, that is, a cold climate zone (Beijing), and a hot summer and cold winter climate zone (Shanghai) and both current climate scenarios (typical meteorological years) and future climate scenarios (2050) were used. The results indicate, among other things, increases of 58%–60% and 41%–44% in the predicted average number of overheating hours in 2050 compared to the current climate for the studied bedrooms on the first floor in dwellings in Beijing and Shanghai, respectively.","Apartment location; Climate change effects; Heritage apartments; Thermal comfort evaluation; Window orientation","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Heritage & Values","","",""
"uuid:98472770-57af-4862-9422-37361a121298","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:98472770-57af-4862-9422-37361a121298","Negative emissions at negative cost-an opportunity for a scalable niche","Aravind, P.V. (TU Delft Energy Technology; Rijksuniversiteit Groningen); Champatan, Vipin (APJ Abdul Kalam Technological University, Kerala, India); Gopi, Girigan (MS Swaminathan Research Foundation); Vijay, V. (TU Delft Sanitary Engineering; Sardar Swaran Singh National Institute of Bio-Energy (SSS-NIBE)); Pande, S. (TU Delft Water Resources); van den Broeke, L.J.P. (TU Delft Engineering Thermodynamics); Shreedhar, S. (TU Delft Sanitary Engineering); Nandakishor, T. M. (KTH Royal Institute of Technology; University of the Federal Armed Forces Munich); Lindeboom, R.E.F. (TU Delft Sanitary Engineering); Posada Duque, J.A. (TU Delft BT/Biotechnology and Society)","","2022","In the face of the rapidly dwindling carbon budgets, negative emission technologies are widely suggested as required to stabilize the Earth’s climate. However, finding cost-effective, socially acceptable, and politically achievable means to enable such technologies remains a challenge. We propose solutions based on negative emission technologies to facilitate wealth creation for the stakeholders while helping to mitigate climate change. This paper comes up with suggestions and guidelines on significantly increasing carbon sequestration in coffee farms. A coffee and jackfruit agroforestry-based case study is presented along with an array of technical interventions, having a special focus on bioenergy and biochar, potentially leading to “negative emissions at negative cost.” The strategies for integrating food production with soil and water management, fuel production, adoption of renewable energy systems and timber management are outlined. The emphasis is on combining biological and engineering sciences to devise a practically viable niche that is easy to adopt, adapt and scale up for the communities and regions to achieve net negative emissions. The concerns expressed in the recent literature on the implementation of emission reduction and negative emission technologies are briefly presented. The novel opportunities to alleviate these concerns arising from our proposed interventions are then pointed out. Our analysis indicates that 1 ha coffee jackfruit-based agroforestry can additionally sequester around 10 tonnes of CO2-eq and lead to an income enhancement of up to 3,000–4,000 Euros in comparison to unshaded coffee. Finally, the global outlook for an easily adoptable nature-based approach is presented, suggesting an opportunity to implement revenue-generating negative emission technologies on a gigatonne scale. We anticipate that our approach presented in the paper results in increased attention to the development of practically viable science and technology-based interventions in order to support the speeding up of climate change mitigation efforts.","climate–change; negative emission technologies; biochar; agroforesry systems; carbon sequeatration; sustainable agriculture; bioenergy","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Energy Technology","","",""
"uuid:5d055e62-5c7b-4b42-970b-ac878fb12706","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:5d055e62-5c7b-4b42-970b-ac878fb12706","Resilience assessment of asphalt pavement rutting under climate change","Zhang, Chao (Harbin Institute of Technology); Tan, Yiqiu (Harbin Institute of Technology); Gao, Y. (TU Delft Pavement Engineering); Fu, Yongkang (Poly Changda Overseas Engineering Co.); Li, Jilu (Harbin Institute of Technology); Li, Shuai (Harbin Institute of Technology); Zhou, Xingye (Ministry of Transport of the People's Republic of China)","","2022","The service performances of asphalt pavement, especially rutting, will be inevitably affected by climate change. However, existing studies have generally focused on the rutting depth and rutting life, and thus became insufficient for comprehensively evaluating the influence of climate change on rutting over the service life. A resilience assessment method for asphalt pavement rutting is developed to solve the above problem. First, the original resilience method is extended to fit the system whose performance level continues to decline. Then, the calculation formulas of rutting resilience are derived by combining the rutting prediction model and the level assessment model. Subsequently, the influence degrees of climate change in representative cities on rutting resilience are studied. The results suggest that neglecting climate change in rutting design of asphalt pavement will lead to insufficient resilience, especially in northern China. Furthermore, the predicted temperature under RCP8.5 should be employed for asphalt pavement design.","Asphalt pavement; Climate change; Recovery stage; Resilience; Resistance stage; Rutting","en","journal article","","","","","","Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.","","2023-07-01","","","Pavement Engineering","","",""
"uuid:26cace25-89e4-44b8-8a12-a18704d485cc","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:26cace25-89e4-44b8-8a12-a18704d485cc","Adaptation of river channels to a wetter or drier climate: Insights from the Lower Pilcomayo River, South America","Crosato, A. (TU Delft Environmental Fluid Mechanics; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education); Grissetti-Vázquez, A. (IHE Delft Institute for Water Education); Bregoli, F. (Radboud Universiteit Nijmegen); Franca, M.J. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education; Karlsruhe Institut für Technologie)","","2022","Climate change has a direct influence on both hydrology and floodplain vegetation of water courses, which are key players in river morphodynamics. The river system response to climate change is complex and the effects of non-linear interactions between alterations in water, sediment and vegetation remain incompletely understood. Which of these components becomes dominant in shaping the river channel when climate becomes drier or wetter? To answer this question, we investigate the cross-sectional response of sand-bed rivers to climate change focusing on channel width and depth, which respond directly to changes in boundary stresses. Thanks to the exceptional availability of long time-series of daily discharge and cross-sectional profiles, the Pilcomayo River is an ideal living lab for this investigation. We constructed a two-dimensional model of the river using the open-source state-of-the-art, structured Delft3D code. The highly dynamic behaviour and quick morphological adaptation of the Pilcomayo allowed reducing the period of time covered by the simulations because the river cross-section adapts its morphology to a new value of the water discharge within hours or days, which is crucial for modelling investigations. Calibration and validation were successfully performed by comparison with historical data. We considered several scenarios representing current, dryer and wetter climates. The results show that a dryer climate reduces the river channel depth and enlarges the width. A wetter climate increases the channel depth but produces negligible widening. Vegetation, sparser with a drier climate and denser with a wetter climate, is found to control the channel width. This analysis is unique and shows which alterations can be expected in alluvial sand-bed rivers with natural vegetated banks due to climate change.","Alluvial river; Climate change; Floodplain vegetation; Pilcomayo river; River morphodynamics","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Environmental Fluid Mechanics","","",""
"uuid:654d7a97-cb70-4a5f-be20-5112816b8bfa","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:654d7a97-cb70-4a5f-be20-5112816b8bfa","Improved oil recovery techniques and their role in energy efficiency and reducing CO2 footprint of oil production","Farajzadeh, R. (TU Delft Reservoir Engineering; Shell Global Solutions International B.V.); Glasbergen, G. (Shell Global Solutions International B.V.); Karpan, V. (Shell Development Oman, Muscat); Mjeni, R. (Petroleum Development Oman); Boersma, D. M. (Shell Global Solutions International B.V.); Eftekhari, A. A. (Technical University of Denmark); Casquera Garcia, A. (Student TU Delft); Bruining, J. (TU Delft Reservoir Engineering)","","2022","Production of mature oil fields emits significant amount of CO2 related to circulation and handling of large volumes of gas and water. This can be reduced either by (1) using a low-carbon energy source and/or (2) reducing the volumes of the non-hydrocarbon produced/injected fluids. This paper describes how improved oil recovery techniques can be designed to reduce CO2 intensity (kgCO2/bbl oil) of oil production by efficient use of the injectants. It is shown that CO2 emissions associated with injection of chemicals is strongly influenced by water cut at the start of the project, extent of the water cut reduction, and chemical utilization factor defined as the volume of produced oil per mass or volume of the injectant. As an example, for the oil field considered in this study, 3–8% reduction in water cut can result in 50–80% reduction in its CO2 intensity. In addition to the incremental oil production with lower CO2 intensity, the earlier implementation of enhanced oil recovery methods can extend the lifetime of the mature fields if carbon emission cut-offs are applied. In case of CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR), the large storage potential for CO2 can significantly reduce the overall CO2 emissions of oil, albeit at a large energetic cost. For CO2 EOR using CO2 captured from gas power plants, improving the utilization factor from 2 bbl/tCO2 to 4 bbl/tCO2 can reduce the CO2 intensity of the produced oil from 120 kgCO2/bbl to 80 kgCO2/bbl (33% reduction).","Climate change; CO intensity; Enhanced oil recovery; Exergy analysis; Improved oil recovery","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Reservoir Engineering","","",""
"uuid:96b17472-4c32-4876-80f9-c915a681c579","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:96b17472-4c32-4876-80f9-c915a681c579","A comparative evaluation of the sustainability of alternative aeration strategies in biological wastewater treatment to support net-zero future","Pryce, David (University of Exeter); Kapelan, Z. (TU Delft Sanitary Engineering; University of Exeter); Memon, Fayyaz A. (University of Exeter)","","2022","In the plight for sustainable development and to support net zero ambitions for climate change mitigation, a broad range of aeration strategies have been developed with the hope of improving efficiency to minimize environmental and economic costs associated with the wastewater treatment processes. However, a balance is levied between reducing oxygen availability and hindering aerobic processes thus compromising performance. In the present work, we evaluate and compare the sustainability of a range of investigated strategies including continuous aeration (CA) at different dissolved oxygen (DO) setpoints (0.5 mg/L, 2.5 mg/L, 4.5 mg/L) and intermittent aeration (IA) at different oxic-anoxic portions (2.5 h on/0.5 h off, 2.0 h on/1.0 h off, 1.5 h on/1.0 h off). To achieve this, an eco-efficiency assessment is performed based on the results of previous life cycle impact and costing analyses for each strategy, while also incorporating a third factor to account for their respective treatment performance. The results demonstrate a clear pattern of increased sustainability for the IA strategies (0.54–0.56 Pt/m3), compared to the CA strategies (0.76–0.77 Pt/m3). While only negligible difference was observed within each aeration type, the trade-off between environmental and economic efficiency and treatment performance was distinct in CA strategies. At the individual pollutant level, IA strategies demonstrated decreasing sustainability for total phosphorous (TP) removal as the anoxic cycle portion increased, while CA at 0.5 mg/L was shown to be the most sustainable strategy for the removal of this pollutant (0.61 Pt/m3). Further work is suggested to incorporate the relative N2O emissions generated by each strategy and to investigate other strategies based on automated control.","Climate change; Life cycle analysis; Net zero; Sustainable development; Wastewater treatment","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Sanitary Engineering","","",""
"uuid:4b4c4c29-fd1c-4015-8b51-ba362363169a","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:4b4c4c29-fd1c-4015-8b51-ba362363169a","Make your home carbon-free. An open access planning tool to calculate energy-related carbon emissions in districts and dwellings","Ligardo Herrera, I.E. (Ivan) (TU Delft Energie and Industrie); Quintana-Gallardo, Alberto (Universitat Politécnica de Valencia); Stascheit, Christian Wolfgang (Universitat Politécnica de Valencia); Gómez-Navarro, Tomás (Universitat Politécnica de Valencia)","","2022","Reducing the carbon emissions of buildings and whole districts is one of the main objectives of sustainable development goals. Both policymakers and end-users need reliable information to take actions that lead to achieving those goals. For this, an innovative open access planning tool has been developed to assess the effect of energy consumption on the overall carbon emissions of districts, buildings, and house units. When it comes to the end-users, it would help them know the actual environmental impact of their homes and make environmentally and financially sound decisions before investing in new equipment. The tool is meant to be an online planning service for dwelling end-users and policymakers alike; thus responding to a still unresolved demand. For this, firstly, the study focuses on the obtention of a complete catalogue of open-source conversion factors, which convert the different energy sources to carbon dioxide emissions per unit of energy. Secondly, it presents two case studies to illustrate the use of the tool. The first case study explains how an end-user could estimate the energy savings that may result from changing his domestic energy habits, equipment, and sources. The second case study uses actual data from a district in Valencia (Spain) to show how renewable sources would affect the carbon footprint of an apartment block. Both study cases show greenhouse gas emissions savings by replacing the existing equipment with more efficient ones such as heat pumps or renewable energy-based power systems like photovoltaic panels. This study concludes that providing smart tools is pivotal to planning nearly Zero-Energy Districts (nZED).","Building; Carbon emissions; Climate change; Energy consumption; Nearly zero energy districts","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Energie and Industrie","","",""
"uuid:843a89b0-ae65-483a-9d7a-548d589f4717","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:843a89b0-ae65-483a-9d7a-548d589f4717","Multi-region lifetime assessment of reinforced concrete structures subjected to carbonation and climate change","Bastidas-Arteaga, E. (Universite de la Rochelle-CNRS); Rianna, G. (Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici); Gervasio, H. (Universidade de Coimbra); Nogal Macho, M. (TU Delft Integral Design & Management)","","2022","The built environment is already facing severe consequences related to climate change. Considering the durability of structures, the increase of carbon-dioxide (CO2) concentration and changes on temperature and relative humidity may accelerate carbonation-induced corrosion, thus affecting the service life of reinforced concrete structures. Several studies have assessed the potential effects of climate change on concrete carbonation for specific locations, and this requires to convert climate databases, which come in various spatial resolutions, to scales that are suitable for the purpose of the study. However, there is not a consistent methodology for using climate projections databases at various spatial scales (e.g., city, district, region, country, etc.). Hence, the main goal of this research is to propose an approach allowing for multi-region assessment of carbonation of reinforced concrete structures, under changing climate. The proposed methodology is based on a carbonation model that takes into account the effects of climate change over time. Moreover, procedures and recommendations are provided to reduce errors in lifetime assessment, such as selection of climate change scenarios, choice of simulation chains, and bias correction. The use of the proposed approach is illustrated by computing carbonation depths for several places located in three districts in Portugal: Porto (north), Lisboa (Middle), and Faro (South). The overall results allow to conclude that: (i) specific climate conditions inside a district, namely temperature and relative humidity, modify the carbonation depths (e.g.: a variation of 19 % was obtained for the carbonation depth in the district of Lisbon); (ii) bias-correction should be systematically carried out to avoid errors in the assessments (for example, in the district of Faro, the time to initiate corrosion was over estimated by about 7 years without bias correction); and (iii) climate change could accelerate concrete carbonation of structures in the different locations considered in Portugal (under the most pessimistic climate scenario, the time to corrosion initiation was below 100 years for all locations).","Atmospheric Reanalysis; Carbonation; Climate Change; CO concentration; Corrosion; Reinforced concrete structures","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Integral Design & Management","","",""
"uuid:b25e60ea-7194-48dc-bd99-f330427ea19f","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:b25e60ea-7194-48dc-bd99-f330427ea19f","Agroforestry in Shade Coffee Plantations as an Emission Reduction Strategy for Tropical Regions: Public Acceptance and the Role of Tree Banking","Nandakishor, T. M. (KTH Royal Institute of Technology; University of the Federal Armed Forces Munich; Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham University); Gopi, Girigan (MS Swaminathan Research Foundation); Champatan, Vipin (Govt. College of Engineering Kannur); Sukesh, A. (Govt. College of Engineering Kannur); Aravind, P.V. (TU Delft Energy Technology; Rijksuniversiteit Groningen)","","2022","Support for the adoption of climate change mitigation measures in low-income regions depends on how such activities contribute to generating household income and gaining confidence from the local community. The planning of mitigation measures or pro-environmental activities need to consider the cost of deployment, customization of activities according to local conditions, and socio-cultural background and perceptions of people. This paper analyses the incentive induced “agroforestry” or “planting trees in farmland” as part of the Carbon Neutral Programme supported by the Government of Kerala in Meenangadi Grama Panchayath, Wayanad district. An increase in tree cover is proposed as a strategy for increasing carbon sequestration. Planting more trees in farmland (except grain cultivated areas) along with crops, according to farmers, may reduce crop yield and discourage farmers’ participation. The Government of Kerala put forward the concept of a tree banking/tree incentive program to attract farmers to expand tree cover. A survey was conducted among 100 individuals from the Meenangadi Grama Panchayath to assess the perceptions and concerns of farmers about the proposed “Agroforestry”/Tree Banking program. The sample size was chosen from the population assuming a 9.98% error tolerance. Tree Banking Programme designed to encourage farmers to plant trees has gained public interest, and the study also documented the factors influencing the willingness of farmers for planting trees. The study revealed that the majority of the individuals (93% of the survey participants) residing in the region are interested in supporting the activities for climate change mitigation. Financial incentives announced under tree banking generated interest among farmers. 89% of the survey participants consider the incentive scheme to be an attractive option, as it can compensate for the short-term loss in crop productivity. However, farmers were very selective in choosing the tree species to be planted on their farms. Incentivization helps to make sure that a large proportion of the planted saplings will grow into mature trees. Overall, it can be concluded that afforestation in the form of agroforestry could be potentially attractive to the farmers and contribute towards achieving carbon neutrality for tropical agricultural areas.","afforestation; agroforestry; climate change mitigation; greenhouse gas; incentivization; negative emissions; sequestration; tree banking","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Energy Technology","","",""
"uuid:d17ad39d-edda-491b-829c-4182fc64e729","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d17ad39d-edda-491b-829c-4182fc64e729","Precipitation Trends Analysis Using Gridded Dynamic Sampling Zones: Case Study Yangtze Delta Megalopolis","Liu, Xiaolong (Southeast University; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education); Fu, Dafang (Southeast University); Zevenbergen, C. (TU Delft Urban Design; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education); Yu, Meixiu (Hohai University); Kumar, Alagarasan Jagadeesh (Jiangsu University)","","2022","As a result of the fast growth of remote sensing and data assimilation technology, many global land use land cover (LULC) and climate reanalysis data sets have been used to advance our understanding of climate and environmental change. This paper investigates the precipitation variations of the Yangtze Delta Megalopolis by using precipitation reanalysis data under conditions of dynamic urban sprawl. Compared with current precipitation characteristic analyses, which are often based on a limited number of ground rainfall stations, the approach followed in this study comprises a grid-based statistical method using large sets of samples with a uniform distribution and a same representative grid area. This novel approach of dynamic sampling is applied in this study to overcome the temporal and spatial inconsistency of stationary sampling. This approach allows to examine the impact of urbanization on regional precipitation characteristics. The Yangtze Delta Megalopolis (YDM) region, one of the most developed regions in China, was selected as a case study to evaluate the impact of urbanization on subsequent precipitation features. The results reveal that the annual total precipitation (TP) and the maximum daily precipitation (MDP) in both urban and non-urban areas of the YDM region generally have increased during the past 30 years. Hence, the region has become increasingly humid. Extrema of annual MDP and TP show obvious spatial characteristics, in which most maxima are located in the southern part of YDM while minima are more concentrated in the northern part. This newly developed approach has potentials for application in studies where underlying surface features exhibit rapid alterations. The findings of this case study provide relevant information for planning and design of regional water resources management, flood risk management, and planning of the urban drainage system of the YDM region.","climate change; land use change; precipitation; statistical dynamic sampling; trend analysis; urbanization; Yangtze Delta megalopolis","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Urban Design","","",""
"uuid:33d61dfe-ec9f-46bf-9bc1-f9afff52c431","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:33d61dfe-ec9f-46bf-9bc1-f9afff52c431","Making waves in resilience: Drawing lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic for advancing sustainable development","van der Voorn, Tom (University of Osnabrück); van den Berg, Caroline (World Bank); Quist, J.N. (TU Delft Energie and Industrie); Kok, Kasper (Wageningen University & Research)","","2022","The current COVID-19 pandemic has affected societies across the world while its economic impact has cut deeper than any recession since the Second World War. Climate change is potentially an even more disruptive and complex global challenge. Climate change could cause social and economic damage far larger than that caused by COVID-19. The current pandemic has highlighted the extent to which societies need to prepare for disruptive global environmental crises. Although the dynamics of combating COVID-19 and climate change are different, the priorities for action are the same: behavioral change, international cooperation to manage shared challenges, and technology's role in advancing solutions. For a sustainable recovery from the COVID-19 crisis to be durable and resilient, a return to ‘business as usual’ and the subsequent often environmentally destructive economic activities must be avoided as they have significantly contributed to climate change. To avoid this, we draw lessons from the experiences of the waves of the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond to advance sustainable development.","Climate change; Covid-19; Pandemic recovery; Resilience; Sustainability","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Energie and Industrie","","",""
"uuid:4e8cbdf6-af78-42a6-bc80-db38605edc4e","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:4e8cbdf6-af78-42a6-bc80-db38605edc4e","Toward Carbon-Neutral Water Systems: Insights from Global Cities","Lam, Ka Leung (Duke Kunshan University); Liu, Gang (Chinese Academy of Sciences); Motelica-Wagenaar, Anne Marieke (Waternet); van der Hoek, J.P. (TU Delft Sanitary Engineering; Waternet)","","2022","Many cities have pledged to achieve carbon neutrality. The urban water industry can also contribute its share to a carbon-neutral future. Using a multi-city time-series analysis approach, this study aims to assess the progress and lessons learned from the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions management of urban water systems in four global cities: Amsterdam, Melbourne, New York City, and Tokyo. These cities are advanced in setting GHG emissions reduction targets and reporting GHG emissions in their water industries. All four cities have reduced the GHG emissions in their water industries, compared with those from more than a decade ago (i.e., the latest three-year moving averages are 13%–32% lower), although the emissions have “rebounded” multiple times over the years. The emissions reductions were mainly due to various engineering opportunities such as solar and mini-hydro power generation, biogas valorization, sludge digestion and incineration optimization, and aeration system optimization. These cities have recognized the many challenges in reaching carbon-neutrality goals, which include fluctuating water demand and rainfall, more carbon-intensive flood-prevention and water-supply strategies, meeting new air and water quality standards, and revising GHG emissions accounting methods. This study has also shown that it is difficult for the water industry to achieve carbon neutrality on its own. A collaborative approach with other sectors is needed when aiming toward the city’s carbon-neutrality goal. Such an approach involves expanding the usual system boundary of the water industry to externally tap into both engineering and non-engineering opportunities.","Carbon neutrality; Cities; Climate change mitigation; Greenhouse gas emissions; Urban water","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Sanitary Engineering","","",""
"uuid:14d63c70-30d2-4b6d-a318-f7b6f256c9c2","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:14d63c70-30d2-4b6d-a318-f7b6f256c9c2","Flexibility for intergenerational justice in climate resilience decision-making: an application on sea-level rise in the Netherlands","Teodoro Morales, J.D. (TU Delft Transport and Logistics); Doorn, N. (TU Delft Values Technology and Innovation; TU Delft Ethics & Philosophy of Technology); Kwakkel, J.H. (TU Delft Policy Analysis; TU Delft Multi Actor Systems); Comes, M. (TU Delft Transport and Logistics; TU Delft System Engineering)","","2022","To adapt to a changing climate, decision-makers design, evaluate, and implement measures that have an implication of justice on citizens in the present and well into the future. Decision-makers are often required to make decisions without certainty of the consequences and understanding their effects on intergenerational justice. Thus, managing the impacts of climate change requires novel decision-aiding approaches that consider climate impacts’ temporal and spatial heterogeneity and the uncertainty in climate predictions, preferences, and values. We reviewed the literature on the extent to which principles of intergenerational justice—conservation of options and resources for future generations—have been integrated to traditional approaches in climate resilience decision-making. We explore the extent to which flexibility, i.e., the conservation and expansion of options in subsequent decision periods, can contribute to upholding the principles of intergenerational justice under uncertainty. We illustrate the approach in the case of the Delta Programme in the Netherlands, a complex system designed to protect against sea-level rise (SLR). Designing adaptation strategies to SLR with flexibility as a core concept brings significant advantages in circumstances of uncertainty. The conservation of options in flexible pathways, in this case, contributes to the principles of intergenerational justice. Our civilization’s long-term sustainability and survival may depend on the extent to which individuals can see beyond their gains and toward the gains of the collective society at an intergenerational scale.","Adaptive pathways; Climate change; Decision-aiding approaches; Sea-level rise","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","Values Technology and Innovation","Transport and Logistics","","",""
"uuid:6a7e0774-322a-42f6-af25-73cd221106a0","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:6a7e0774-322a-42f6-af25-73cd221106a0","Response of hydrogeological processes in a regional groundwater system to environmental changes: A modeling study of Yinchuan Basin, China","Li, J. (Chang'an University); Zhou, Yangxiao (Hebei University of Geosciences; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education); Wang, Wenke (Chang'an University); Liu, S. (TU Delft Water Resources; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education); Li, Ying (Geological Bureau of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Yinchuan); Wu, Ping (Institute of Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology of Ningxia, Yinchuan)","","2022","The sustainable development of groundwater resources in arid and semi-arid regions is a challenging task hindered by climate change and human activities. The rational utilization and management of groundwater resources is, therefore, dependent on an understanding of the influences of human and climatic factors on the spatial distribution of groundwater resources and their change over time. The thick Quaternary aquifers in the Yinchuan Basin, China were used herein as an example of how to quantitatively assess spatial and temporal trends in groundwater resources in response to human activities and climate change. A 3D transient groundwater flow model was constructed and used to simulate the evolution and spatial variability of hydrogeological processes from 1990 to 2020. By subsequently applying regime shift detection and correlation analysis to the simulation results, we found that: 1) groundwater storage was continuously depleted over the 30-year period, reaching a cumulative depletion of 1.89×109 m3; 2) human activities were mainly responsible for variations in regional hydrogeological processes for a period of up to 30 years. Climate only affected short-term interannual fluctuations in groundwater storage; 3) human activities (e.g., river water diversion and groundwater abstractions) were the decisive factors causing a continuous reduction of groundwater resources. A policy-driven reduction in water diversion from the Yellow River directly led to a significant drop in groundwater storage, which had a consequent effect on surface water and groundwater interactions and altered agricultural irrigation patterns (crop patterns and irrigation methods); 4) the amount of groundwater recharge from the Yellow River and local lakes increased from 1990 to 2020, whereas the discharge of groundwater to the Yellow River and lakes decreased.","Climate change; Human activities; Numerical groundwater flow model; Quaternary sediments, Yinchuan Basin; Surface water-groundwater interactions","en","journal article","","","","","","Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.","","2023-07-01","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:cd3ac958-c305-4171-a945-259e4f4f7069","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:cd3ac958-c305-4171-a945-259e4f4f7069","Agent-based modeling to integrate elements from different disciplines for ambitious climate policy","Savin, Ivan (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona; Ural Federal University); Creutzig, Felix (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change; Technical University of Berlin); Filatova, T. (TU Delft Multi Actor Systems; TU Delft Policy Analysis); Foramitti, Joël (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Konc, Théo (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona; Technical University of Berlin; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research); Niamir, Leila (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg); Safarzynska, Karolina (University of Warsaw); van den Bergh, Jeroen (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona; Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA); Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)","","2022","Ambitious climate mitigation policies face social and political resistance. One reason is that existing policies insufficiently capture the diversity of relevant insights from the social sciences about potential policy outcomes. We argue that agent-based models can serve as a powerful tool for integration of elements from different disciplines. Having such a common platform will enable a more complete assessment of climate policies, in terms of criteria like effectiveness, equity and public support. This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling > Knowledge Generation with Models The Carbon Economy and Climate Mitigation > Policies, Instruments, Lifestyles, Behavior Policy and Governance > Multilevel and Transnational Climate Change Governance.","agent-based modelling; climate change; policy acceptability; policy integration; policy stringency","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","Multi Actor Systems","Policy Analysis","","",""
"uuid:1f76aec0-65f6-4765-8802-062b7ed40c2d","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:1f76aec0-65f6-4765-8802-062b7ed40c2d","Historical and future naturalization of Magallana gigas in the Galician coast in a context of climate change","Des, M. (Universidade de Vigo; Deltares); Gómez-Gesteira, J.L. (Universidade de Vigo; CETMAR); de Castro, M. (Universidade de Vigo); Iglesias, D. (CIMA); Sousa, M.C. (University of Aveiro); El Serafy, G.Y.H. (TU Delft Mathematical Physics; Deltares); Gomez-Gesteira, M. (Universidade de Vigo)","","2022","Magallana gigas is a naturalized species on the north coast of Galicia (Rías Altas, Northwest Iberian Peninsula), where it was unintentionally introduced. In recent decades, a greater abundance of M. gigas has been observed on the Galician coast, expanding towards the south, reaching the Artabro Gulf (Rías Centrales, NW Galician coast), probably due to ocean warming. Although this species has been cultivated in the Rías Baixas since the early 1990s and spawning has been reported, recruitment was never observed, which is likely due to the cold water upwelled during the spawning months. The future rise in seawater temperature may favor the naturalization of the non-indigenous species M. gigas southwards, in the Rías Baixas. Thermally, the Ría de Arousa seems to be the most favorable estuary for the future settlement of M. gigas, which may occur in the next decades. The extent of thermally favorable zones within estuaries is projected to increase rapidly by mid-century, and reaching 100 % of the estuarine area by the end of the century. As has already happened in other areas of the world, the expansion and naturalization of the Pacific oyster on the Galician coast will likely affect the native communities and economic activities, making it necessary to implement monitoring and management strategies to mitigate its effect.","Climate change; Magallana gigas; Numerical modeling; Ocean warming; Pacific oyster","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Mathematical Physics","","",""
"uuid:5dddd638-d800-4111-bca0-bc63fbb47f65","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:5dddd638-d800-4111-bca0-bc63fbb47f65","Assessing the environmental performance of a novel coal mine brine treatment technique: A case in Poland","Tsalidis, G.A. (TU Delft BT/Biotechnology and Society; Sealeau); Tourkodimitri, K. Panteleaki (Student TU Delft); Mitko, K. (Silesian University of Technology); Gzyl, G. (Główny Instytut Górnictwa (Central Mining Institute)); Skalny, A. (Główny Instytut Górnictwa (Central Mining Institute)); Posada Duque, J.A. (TU Delft BT/Biotechnology and Society); Xevgenos, Dimitris (TU Delft BT/Biotechnology and Society; Sealeau)","","2022","Although the energy transition results in decreased use of coal for power production, hard coal extraction will continue due to its importance in steel production and coal mine wastewater will continue generating after mines closure. The coal mining sector produces wastewater which results in environmental burdens and often contains valuable materials that can be treated to eliminate effluent discharge and recover contained materials. The aim of this study is to determine whether the implementation of a novel wastewater treatment technique in an existing coal wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) can improve both environmental performance and resource recovery potential. Our study assesses for the first time the environmental performance of the WWTP of Dębieńsko at the Upper Silesian Coal Basin, in Poland because coal mine effluents need to be treated to eliminate current environmental impacts on surface water bodies (rivers). The existing wastewater treatment system comprises reverse osmosis, evaporation and crystallization technologies. In the case of the novel ZERO BRINE technique, lab performance data is scaled-up and used for nanofiltration, reverse osmosis, electrodialysis and crystallization technologies. The environmental impacts analysis is performed with life cycle assessment (LCA) by considering mid-point impact categories (climate change, terrestrial acidification and fossil resource scarcity) and end-point damages (human health, ecosystems and resources). The functional unit is 1 m3 of coal mine wastewater input and a scenario is developed where the plant functionality concerns salt production. Results show that the implementation of the ZERO BRINE technique can improve the environmental performance of the WWTP for all considered impact categories due to a reduction in electricity consumption by 13% in the entire plant. Climate change, acidification, fossil resources scarcity, human health, ecosystems, and resources were improved by 16%, 13%, 12%, 25%, 21% and 13%, respectively. A sensitivity analysis is performed on the electricity consumption of electrodialysis which shows an additional improvement by 7% on all impacts. The ZERO BRINE technique produces both water and different types of salts. In this case, the multi-functionality of the system is addressed through substitution, while sensitivity analyses are carried out using mass and economic allocation methods.","Acidification; Circular economy; Climate change; Fossil resources scarcity; Life cycle assessment; Wastewater treatment; Zero liquid discharge","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","BT/Biotechnology and Society","","",""
"uuid:50dc25bc-1ca3-4d2a-ad18-8360812d017c","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:50dc25bc-1ca3-4d2a-ad18-8360812d017c","Development of an Efficient Modelling Approach to Support Economically and Socially Acceptable Flood Risk Reduction in Coastal Cities: Can Tho City, Mekong Delta, Vietnam","Ngo, Q.H. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education)","Zevenbergen, C. (promotor); Ranasinghe, Roshanka (promotor); Pathirana, Assela (copromotor); Delft University of Technology (degree granting institution)","2021","Flooding is one of the most frequently occurring and damaging natural disasters worldwide. Quantitative flood risk management (FRM) in the modern context demands statistically robust approaches (e.g. probabilistic) due to the need to deal with complex uncertainties. However, probabilistic estimates often involve ensemble 2D hydraulic model runs resulting in large computational costs.
Additionally, modern FRM necessitates the involvement of a broad range of stakeholders via co-design sessions. This makes it necessary for the flood models, at least at a simplified level, to be understood by and accessible to non-specialists.
This study was undertaken to develop a flood modelling system that can provide rapid and sufficiently accurate estimates of flood risk within a methodology that is accessible to a wider range of stakeholders for a coastal city – Can Tho city, Mekong Delta, Vietnam.
A web-based hydraulic tool, Inform, was developed based on a simplified 1D model for the entire Mekong Delta, flood hazard and damage maps, and estimated flood damages for the urban centre of Can Tho city (Ninh Kieu district), containing the must-have features of a co-design tool (e.g. inbuilt input library, flexible options, easy to use, quick results, user-friendly interface). Inform provides rapid flood risk assessments with quantitative information (e.g. flood levels, flood hazard and damage maps, estimated damages) required for co-designing efforts aimed at flood risk reduction for Ninh Kieu district in the future.","Coastal cities; Quantitative flood risk assessment; Flood risk management; Climate change; Land subsidence; Can Tho city; Mekong Delta","en","doctoral thesis","CRC Press / Balkema - Taylor & Francis Group","978-1-0322-2914-0","","","","","","","","","Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk","","",""
"uuid:34d6b261-5a55-45f6-8103-1d900cc98dc9","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:34d6b261-5a55-45f6-8103-1d900cc98dc9","Evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet with the Global Climate as modelled with CESM2-CISM2","Muntjewerf, L. (TU Delft Physical and Space Geodesy)","Klees, R. (promotor); Vizcaino, M. (copromotor); Delft University of Technology (degree granting institution)","2021","Human-induced climate change is one of the challenges of our time. The increasing global mean temperature, shifts in precipitation patterns, and the rising sea level threaten ecosystems and natural resources, and pose a great risk on society at large. Policymakers need information about the expected impacts, as accurate as possible, in order to make adequate climate change mitigation and adaptation policies.
The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) appears to be sensitive to the changing climate. At present, the GrIS is losing mass at an accelerated pace. This is the focus of this thesis. The key terms of the GrIS mass balance are (1) the Surface Mass Balance (SMB) and (2) the ice discharge at glacier fronts. At the surface, the ice sheet gains mass through precipitation and loses mass through meltwater runoff and through sublimation. Ice discharge is a loss term regulated by ice flow. When the mass balance is negative, the ice sheet loses mass contributing to sea level rise.
The GrIS, however, is not an isolated environment. It is an integral part of the Earth system. Interactions and feedback mechanisms between the ice sheet and various parts of the Earth’s system affect the ice sheet’s mass loss. The future behavior of the GrIS is a major source of uncertainty in the projections of 21st century sea level rise. The basis for this lies, among other things, in an incomplete understanding of the interactions between the ice sheets and other components the Earth system.","Greenland Ice Sheet; Sea Level Rise; Anthropogenic Climate Change; Coupled Ice-Sheet/Earth System Modelling","en","doctoral thesis","","978-94-6416-917-1","","","","","","","","","Physical and Space Geodesy","","",""
"uuid:09d84cc1-27e2-4327-a8c7-207a75952061","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:09d84cc1-27e2-4327-a8c7-207a75952061","Internal processes in hydrological models: A glance at the Meuse basin from space","Bouaziz, L.J.E. (TU Delft Water Resources)","Hrachowitz, M. (promotor); Savenije, Hubert (promotor); Delft University of Technology (degree granting institution)","2021","Contemplating the Meuse or any other river of the world, one may wonder about the journey of rain in becoming river. This fascinates hydrologists, as they develop theories to understand movement, storage and release of water through the landscape across climates. These theories are translated to hydrological models, which describe the complex reality in a simpler way. Models are then used to predict the hydrological cycle for the nearby or long-term future. This thesis aims to assist the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management in improving the reliability of hydrological modeling of the Meuse basin for operational and policy applications. Using in-situ and remote-sensing data, the value of representing additional processes in models is explored, as well as the creative use of additional data to improve hydrological predictions. First, water balance data is used to identify the potential presence of intercatchment groundwater flows (Chapter 3). These underground flow paths cross topographic catchment boundaries and mainly play a role in headwater catchments (< 500 km2) of the Meuse basin, which are underlain by productive aquifers. Representing this flux as a preferential threshold-initiated process improves low and high flow model performance and increases the consistency between modeled and remote-sensing estimates of actual evaporation. Besides the importance of quantifying the long-term hydrological partitioning of precipitation into streamflow, evaporation and potentially intercatchment groundwater flows, another key element of the hydrological response is the amount of water available in the root-zone of vegetation. The temporal dynamics of root-zone soil moisture control how much more water can be stored in the soil and how much water is available for transpiration. In Chapter 4, meaningful estimates of root-zone soil moisture are inferred from satellite observations of near-surface soil moisture, by establishing a link between the catchment-scale root-zone storage capacity and the Soil Water Index. Interestingly, hydrological models with different internal process representations of root-zone soil moisture, evaporation, snow and total storage at the catchment scale may lead to a similar aggregated streamflow response (Chapter 5). This discrepancy implies that models are not necessarily providing the right answers for the right reasons, as they cannot simultaneously be close to reality and different from each other. To circumvent the uncertainty of process representation, which is inherent to hydrological science, the use of multiple model structures is advocated for operational and policy applications. Nonetheless, testing the consistency between modeled hydrological behavior and independent remote-sensing data can foster model developments and lead to creating better models. Finally, we move beyond the use of historical in-situ and remote-sensing data to predict long-term hydrological behavior of the Meuse basin under projected global warming (Chapter 6). If environmental conditions change, it is likely to also assume ecosystem adaptation in response to climate change and a potential natural and/or anthropogenic shift in dominant species across the landscape. Non-stationarity in the representation of hydrological systems is introduced in a process-based model with three hydrological response units to account for the spatial variability of hydrological processes. More specifically, we adapt the root-zone storage capacity parameter using the information contained in the projected climate data. This is an important step forward in the great challenge of hydrological predictions under change. Despite data uncertainties and a lack of data at the required temporal and spatial resolutions, many possibilities are at hand with what is currently available to develop new theories, test and improve hydrological models. Requiring creativity, this is a beautiful challenge to further unravel the mysteries of the hydrological landscape.","hydrological modeling; Meuse basin; root-zone storage capacity; remote sensing; states and fluxes; intercatchment groundwater flow; Climate change; Soil Water Index","en","doctoral thesis","","978-94-6421-419-2","","","","","","","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:4fde3948-0ab7-4ad4-b74f-94b2d3163009","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:4fde3948-0ab7-4ad4-b74f-94b2d3163009","Statistical wave properties in shallow water using cnoidal theory","Cervantes, L. (University of Bergen, Norway); Kalisch, H. (University of Bergen, Norway); Lagona, F. (University of Bergen, Norway - University of Roma, Italy); Paulsen, M.O. (University of Bergen, Norway); Roeber, V. (University of Bergen, Norway - Universit´e de Pau et des Pays de l’Adour, France)","","2021","Various properties of wind-generated waves in coastal regions are significantly different from those in deep water regions. The differences are largely due to the influence of bathymetry, which is more pronounced in shallower water. In general, deep water waves are considered a Gaussian random process with only minor discrepancies between the observed and theoretical probability density functions. The deviations from the Gaussian model are exhibited by that fact that high crests are observed more frequently than deep troughs (Holthuijsen 2007). In shallow water, these deviations are more pronounced due to the relative importance of non-linearity in these waves. Indeed irregularities in bathymetry, changes in wave height and wave steepness as the mean water depth decreases towards the shore affect wave properties and their probability distribution as a result. The steepening process near shore causes higher and sharper wave crests and shallower and flatter wave troughs. Under such conditions, the Gaussian model is no longer sufficient for describing wave behaviour as it underestimates the higher values and overestimates the lower values of the observed surface elevation. Hence, a non-Gaussian probability density function has to be applied for representing shallow water wave profiles (Ochi and Wang 1985). Previous statistical analyses on the non-Gaussian characteristics of coastal waves include the results of Ochi et al. (1982) and Ochi and Wang (1985). In these works, wave records were obtained at a location along the CERC Field Research Facility at Duck North Carolina. These wave records were taken during the growth stage of a storm in the ARSLOE project. The results show that the skewness of the distribution modelling the free surface elevation was the dominant parameter affecting the degree of deviation from the Gaussian model. To account for the skewness, a non-Gaussian probability density function was used to more accurately represent the distribution of the free surface elevation near the shore. The Gram-Charlier probability density function showed good agreement with the histograms of the surface elevation obtained near the shore in both studies. While the studies mentioned above are based on measurements, the present study embodies a numerical framework for estimating the coastal surface elevation distribution. As will be elaborated on in this paper, the combination of linear shoaling theory in deep water and non-linear cnoidal theory in shallow waters yields good agreement with the experimental results found in the above studies. In particular, with the numerical approach used in the present paper, the distribution of the free surface elevation is also found to be non-Gaussian and well represented by a Gram-Charlier distribution.","Coasts and climate change; Coastal hydrodynamics","en","conference paper","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"uuid:f2ddb159-137d-4f51-9a4c-a041533d2258","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:f2ddb159-137d-4f51-9a4c-a041533d2258","An investigation on salt marsh resilience to sea-level rise and increased storm intensity","Pannozzo, N. (University of Liverpool, UK); Leonardi, N. (University of Liverpool, UK); Carnacina, I. (Liverpool John Moores University, UK); Smedley, R. (University of Liverpool, UK)","","2021","Salt marshes are ecosystems with significant economic and environmental value. They provide numerous services, including nutrient removal, habitat provision and carbon sequestration (Barbier et al., 2011). They are also widely recognised as nature-based solutions for coastal defence due to their ability to buffer storm waves (Leonardi et al., 2018). However, it is still unclear how the combined impact of future sea-level rise and possible increases in storm intensity will affect salt marsh resilience (Schuerch et al. 2013). It has been observed that salt marshes can survive sea-level rise if sediment supply and organogenic production are high enough to allow marsh accretion (Kirwan et al., 2010, 2016). However, increasing rates of sea-level rise can lead to marsh drowning by increasing the accommodation space and the amount of sediment inputs required for marsh stability (Kirwan et al., 2010; Ganju et al., 2017). Marsh degradation can also be caused by lateral erosion triggered by wind waves, such as the ones generated during storms (Leonardi et al., 2016; Li et al., 2019). However, several studies have showed that, on the other hand, overwash by storm surges can support marsh resilience by delivering significant amount of sediment to marsh platforms (Walters and Kirwan, 2016; Castagno et al., 2018). This study investigates marsh resilience under the combined impact of various storm surge and sea-level scenarios by using a sediment budget approach. The current paradigm is that a positive sediment budget supports the survival and accretion of salt marshes, while a negative sediment budget causes marsh degradation (Ganju et al. 2015). The Ribble Estuary, North-West England, was used as a case study.","Estuarine processes, fine sediments and vegetation; Coasts and climate change","en","conference paper","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"uuid:b442ec3c-75f3-491f-99af-3843b19fcb92","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:b442ec3c-75f3-491f-99af-3843b19fcb92","Interactions and Evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance with the Global Climate","Sellevold, R. (TU Delft Physical and Space Geodesy)","Klees, R. (promotor); Vizcaino, M. (copromotor); Delft University of Technology (degree granting institution)","2021","One of the major consequences of ongoing global warming is the melting of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). The GrIS, as the world’s second largest freshwater reservoir, has the potential to raise sea levels by 7.4 m (Bamber et al., 2018a,b). Such a sea level rise would have a devastating effect on coastal societies, where a large fraction of the world’s population lives. Therefore, constraining the GrIS’ contribution to sea level rise is an important and vital task to plan for the future efficiently.
Since the 1990s, the GrIS has been losing mass at an accelerated rate (Enderlin et al., 2014; Bamber et al., 2018a; Shepherd et al., 2019; Oppenheimer et al., 2019). We can separate GrIS mass loss into the contribution from the surface mass balance (SMB) and ice discharge. The SMB is the primary contributor to recent GrIS mass loss (van den Broeke et al., 2016); thus, there is a need for accurate projec tions of GrIS SMB, and a thorough understanding of physical processes governing the surface mass loss under global warming. Further, the GrIS also interacts with the climate system (Fyke et al., 2018), highlighting the need for coupled global climate projections.
This thesis’ primary targets are to
1. Investigate the coevolution of the GrIS SMB and the global climate under increased greenhouse gases.
2. Examine the impact of reduced Arctic sea ice on GrIS SMB
3. Make projections of future GrIS surface melt.
This is achieved by using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 2.1 (Danabasoglu et al., 2020). CESM2 is a newly developed coupled earth system model that features an online downscaling of the SMB through elevation classes (ECs), advanced snow physics (van Kampenhout et al., 2017), and a prognostic calculation of snow albedo (Flanner and Zender, 2006). Also, the EC simulated SMB is interactive; that is, modification of surface fluxes of mass and energy is communicated to the earth system’s other components.
This thesis presents analysis of some of the first simulations of Greenland ice sheet climate and SMB with the newly developed CESM2 and CESM2CISM2. While many questions regarding the future of the GrIS remain, the results presented here contribute towards a better understanding of the coupled global climate and GrIS SMB evolution, and processes leading GrIS surface mass loss. The first steps towards making computationally efficient and robust projections of GrIS surface melt through machine learning are also taken.","Greenland ice sheet; Surface mass balance; Global climate modeling; Climate change","en","doctoral thesis","","9789463842013","","","","","","","","","Physical and Space Geodesy","","",""
"uuid:eb49c7e0-3467-4c9f-82b5-72f01da1ea8a","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:eb49c7e0-3467-4c9f-82b5-72f01da1ea8a","A Life Cycle Assessment of reprocessing face masks during the Covid-19 pandemic","van Straten, Bart (TU Delft Medical Instruments & Bio-Inspired Technology); Ligtelijn, S. (Student TU Delft); Droog, L.Y.A. (Student TU Delft); Putman, E. (Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport (VWS)); Dankelman, J. (TU Delft Medical Instruments & Bio-Inspired Technology); Sperna Weiland, N.H. (Amsterdam UMC); Horeman, T. (TU Delft Medical Instruments & Bio-Inspired Technology)","","2021","The Covid-19 pandemic led to threatening shortages in healthcare of medical products such as face masks. Due to this major impact on our healthcare society an initiative was conducted between March and July 2020 for reprocessing of face masks from 19 different hospitals. This exceptional opportunity was used to study the costs impact and the carbon footprint of reprocessed face masks relative to new disposable face masks. The aim of this study is to conduct a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to assess and compare the climate change impact of disposed versus reprocessed face masks. In total 18.166 high quality medical FFP2 face masks were reprocessed through steam sterilization between March and July 2020. Greenhouse gas emissions during production, transport, sterilization and end-of-life processes were assessed. The background life cycle inventory data were retrieved from the ecoinvent database. The life cycle impact assessment method ReCiPe was used to translate emissions into climate change impact. The cost analysis is based on actual sterilization as well as associated costs compared to the prices of new disposable face masks. A Monte Carlo sampling was used to propagate the uncertainty of different inputs to the LCA results. The carbon footprint appears to be 58% lower for face masks which were reused for five times compared to new face masks which were used for one time only. The sensitivity analysis indicated that the loading capacity of the autoclave and rejection rate of face masks has a large influence on the carbon footprint. The estimated cost price of a reprocessed mask was €1.40 against €1.55. The Life Cycle Assessment demonstrates that reprocessed FFP2 face masks from a circular economy perspective have a lower climate change impact on the carbon footprint than new face masks. For policymakers it is important to realize that the carbon footprint of medical products such as face masks may be reduced by means of circular economy strategies. This study demonstrated a lower climate change impact and lower costs when reprocessing and reusing disposable face masks for five times. Therefore, this study may serve as an inspiration for investigating reprocessing of other medical products that may become scarce. Finally, this study advocates that circular design engineering principles should be taken into account when designing medical devices. This will lead to more sustainable products that have a lower carbon footprint and may be manufactured at lower costs.","Circular Economy; Climate change; SARS-CoV-2; Sustainability; OA-Fund TU Delft","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Medical Instruments & Bio-Inspired Technology","","",""
"uuid:f96975af-8dcb-4393-998e-c52549deb229","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:f96975af-8dcb-4393-998e-c52549deb229","Limited impact of climate forcing products on future glacier evolution in Scandinavia and Iceland","Compagno, Loris (ETH Zürich; Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research); Zekollari, H. (TU Delft Mathematical Geodesy and Positioning; Vrije Universiteit Brussel; ETH Zürich; Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research); Huss, Matthias (ETH Zürich; University of Fribourg; Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research); Farinotti, Daniel (ETH Zürich; Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research)","","2021","Due to climate change, worldwide glaciers are rapidly declining. The trend will continue into the future, with consequences for sea level, water availability and tourism. Here, we assess the future evolution of all glaciers in Scandinavia and Iceland until 2100 using the coupled surface mass-balance ice-flow model GloGEMflow. The model is initialised with three distinct past climate data products (E-OBS, ERA-I, ERA-5), while future climate is prescribed by both global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs), in order to analyze their impact on glacier evolution. By 2100, we project Scandinavian glaciers to lose between 67 ± 18% and 90 ± 7% of their present-day (2018) volume under a low (RCP2.6) and a high (RCP8.5) emission scenario, respectively. Over the same period, losses for Icelandic glaciers are projected to be between 43 ± 11% (RCP2.6) and 85 ± 7% (RCP8.5). The projected evolution is only little impacted by both the choice of climate data products used in the past and the spatial resolution of the future climate projections, with differences in the ice volume remaining by 2100 of 7 and 5%, respectively. This small sensitivity is attributed to our model calibration strategy that relies on observed glacier-specific mass balances and thus compensates for differences between climate forcing products.","Climate change; glacier flow; glacier mass balance; glacier modelling; glacier volume","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Mathematical Geodesy and Positioning","","",""
"uuid:79b81014-e6d3-4381-bd25-a54cea8bd41a","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:79b81014-e6d3-4381-bd25-a54cea8bd41a","Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Future Water Demand using Weather Data","Fiorillo, Diana (Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II); Kapelan, Z. (TU Delft Sanitary Engineering); Xenochristou, Maria (Stanford University); De Paola, Francesco (Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II); Giugni, Maurizio (Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II)","","2021","Assessing the impact of climate change on water demand is a challenging task. This paper proposes a novel methodology that quantifies this impact by establishing a link between water demand and weather based on climate change scenarios, via Coupled General Circulation Models. These models simulate the response of the global climate system to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations by reproducing atmospheric and ocean processes. In order to establish the link between water demand and weather, Random Forest models based on weather variables were used. This methodology was applied to a district metered area in Naples (Italy). Results demonstrate that the total district water demand may increase by 9–10% during the weeks with the highest temperatures. Furthermore, results show that the increase in water demand changes depending on the social characteristics of the users. The water demand of employed users with high education may increase by 13–15% when the highest temperatures occur. These increases can seriously affect the capacity and operation of existing water systems.","Climate change; Smart meters; Water demand; Water distribution network","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Sanitary Engineering","","",""
"uuid:f3cc5f38-754f-430f-a702-12b4c0cef40f","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:f3cc5f38-754f-430f-a702-12b4c0cef40f","On the Thermal Resilience of Venetian Open Spaces","Gherri, Barbara (Università degli Studi di Parma); Maiullari, D. (TU Delft Environmental Technology and Design; Chalmers University of Technology); Finizza, Chiara (Università degli Studi di Parma); Maretto, Marco (Università degli Studi di Parma); Naboni, Emanuele (Università degli Studi di Parma; School of Architecture, Design, and Conservation)","","2021","Venice is known for its urban heritage fragility. The city is experiencing an increase in yearly average temperatures affecting outdoor–indoor comfort and average energy expenditure. Owing to existing literature demonstrating how local microclimate depends on urban density, form, and materials, this investigation studies the influence of the changing local climate on Venetian vernacular open spaces, known as Campi. Based on the comparison of contemporary weather and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) future predictions for the 2050 scenario, this investigation highlights how Campi’s open spaces and the surrounding buildings, canals, and green public areas contribute to building climate resilience. By employing advanced modelling, the study analyses microclimate and outdoor comfort with respect to users’ perception of Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET). The ENVI-met tool is used to simulate the thermal behaviour of two representative Campi: SS. Giovanni e Paolo and S. Polo. Despite significant temperature growths, Venetian urban fabric characteristics seem to play a crucial role in strengthening the climate resilience of open spaces, thus preserving outdoor comfort quality in a warmer future. The analysis shows how the historical matrix of open spaces and buildings cooperate. Thus, this study offers a contribution to how built heritage should be considered in light of climate change","Climate change; Climate resilience; Outdoor comfort; Urban form; Venice","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Environmental Technology and Design","","",""
"uuid:55dfbdf7-f2f6-4f2d-9ec7-9903770182c4","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:55dfbdf7-f2f6-4f2d-9ec7-9903770182c4","Review of Large-Scale Biochar Field-Trials for Soil Amendment and the Observed Influences on Crop Yield Variations","Vijay, V. (TU Delft Sanitary Engineering); Shreedhar, S. (TU Delft Sanitary Engineering); Adlak, Komalkant (Indian Institute of Technology Delhi); Payyanad, Sachin (Govt. College of Engineering Kannur); Sreedharan, Vandana (Govt. College of Engineering Kannur); Gopi, Girigan (MS Swaminathan Research Foundation); Sophia van der Voort, Tessa (Rijksuniversiteit Groningen); Malarvizhi, P. (Tamil Nadu Agricultural University); Buisma-Yi, S.C. (TU Delft Geo-engineering); Gebert, J. (TU Delft Geo-engineering); Aravind, P.V. (TU Delft Energy Technology; Rijksuniversiteit Groningen)","","2021","Increasing pressure on farming systems due to rapid urbanization and population growth has severely affected soil health and fertility. The need to meet the growing food demands has also led to unsustainable farming practices with the intensive application of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, resulting in significant greenhouse gas emissions. Biochar, a multifunctional carbon material, is being actively explored globally for simultaneously addressing the concerns related to improving soil fertility and mitigating climate change. Reviews on biochar, however, mainly confined to lab-scale studies analyze biochar production and its characteristics, its effects on soil fertility, and carbon sequestration. The present review addresses this gap by focusing on biochar field trials to enhance the current understanding of its actual impact on the field, w.r.t. agriculture and climate change. The review presents an overview of the effects of biochar application as observed in field studies on soil health (soil’s physical, chemical, and biological properties), crop productivity, and its potential role in carbon sequestration. General trends from this review indicate that biochar application provides higher benefits in soil properties and crop yield in degraded tropical soils vis-a-vis the temperate regions. The results also reveal diverse observations in soil health properties and crop yields with biochar amendment as different studies consider different crops, biochar feedstocks, and local climatic and soil conditions. Furthermore, it has been observed that the effects of biochar application in lab-scale studies with controlled environments are not always distinctly witnessed in corresponding field-based studies and the effects are not always synchronous across different regions. Hence, there is a need for more data, especially from well-designed long-term field trials, to converge and validate the results on the effectiveness of biochar on diverse soil types and agro-climatic zones to improve crop productivity and mitigate climate change.","biochar; carbon sequestration; climate change mitigation; crop yield; soil amendment; soil properties; soil quality and health; sustainable agriculture","en","review","","","","","","","","","","","Sanitary Engineering","","",""
"uuid:b001b2ad-2f95-410f-85d3-92eef0a7bc61","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:b001b2ad-2f95-410f-85d3-92eef0a7bc61","Enabling Socio-Ecological Resilience in the Global South: Insights from Chennai, India","Tajuddin, N.A. (Independent researcher); Dabrowski, M.M. (TU Delft Spatial Planning and Strategy)","","2021","Addressing climate change adaptation in the cities of the Global South is crucial as they are the most at risk and, arguably, the least capable of coping with it due to their rapid expansion, informal development, and limited institutional capacity. This paper explores this challenge in the case of Chennai, India, a city which, in recent years, has faced several climate related disasters, including floods. Building on an innovative combination of research methods (policy documents analysis, stakeholder interviews, and a community workshop), the study analyses the barriers and explores potentials for operationalising socio-ecological resilience in Chennai in the face of an ongoing conflict between rapid urbanisation and the natural water system, compromising the region’s hydrological capacity and resilience to flooding. In particular, drawing on the notion of evolutionary resilience and multi-level approach, the paper investigates (1) the scope for developing an integrated vision for resilience of the Chennai region (macro level); (2) the presence and the capacity of institutions to connect the different stakeholders and mediate their interests (meso level); and (3) the barriers and potentials developing local adaptation strategies in a bottom-up manner (micro level). The study sheds light on the under-researched issue of socio-ecological resilience in Chennai, while identifying potentials for implementing it through a combination of top down and bottom-up approaches, which in turn provides useful lessons for planning for resilience in other cities in the Global South.","Chennai; Climate change adaptation; Flooding; India; Resilience; Spatial planning","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Spatial Planning and Strategy","","",""
"uuid:9c1a2d34-dd48-46ce-8f5d-ff064ef2757b","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:9c1a2d34-dd48-46ce-8f5d-ff064ef2757b","Next Generation Gravity Mission Elements of the Mass Change and Geoscience International Constellation: From Orbit Selection to Instrument and Mission Design","Massotti, Luca (European Space Agency (ESA)); Siemes, C. (TU Delft Astrodynamics & Space Missions); March, G. (European Space Agency (ESA)); Haagmans, Roger (European Space Agency (ESA)); Silvestrin, Pierluigi (European Space Agency (ESA))","","2021","ESA’s Next Generation Gravity Mission (NGGM) is a candidate Mission of Opportunity for ESA–NASA cooperation in the frame of the Mass Change and Geosciences International Constellation (MAGIC). The mission aims at enabling long-term monitoring of the temporal variations of Earth’s gravity field at relatively high temporal (down to 3 days) and increased spatial resolutions (up to 100 km) at longer time intervals. This implies also that time series of GRACE and GRACE-FO can be extended towards a climate series. Such variations carry information about mass change induced by the water cycle and the related mass exchange among atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere, land and solid Earth and will complete our picture of global and climate change. The main observable is the variation of the distance between two satellites measured by a ranging instrument. This is complemented by accelerometers that measure the nongravitational accelerations, which need to be reduced from ranging measurements to obtain the gravity signal. The preferred satellite constellation comprises one satellite pair in a near-polar and another in an inclined circular orbit. The paper focuses on the orbit selection methods for optimizing the spatial sampling for multiple temporal resolutions and then on the methodology for deriving the engineering requirements for the space segment, together with a discussion on the main mission parameters.","orbit selection; gravity mission; global change; mass change; climate change; hydrology; cryosphere; oceanography; solid Earth; neutral atmosphere; laser interferometer; satellite formation; drag compensation","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Astrodynamics & Space Missions","","",""
"uuid:0ebee9d0-d49b-4cdc-b0b1-2e39424e52c1","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:0ebee9d0-d49b-4cdc-b0b1-2e39424e52c1","Consideration of climate change-induced corrosion by structural codes","Nogal Macho, M. (TU Delft Integral Design & Management); Bastidas-Arteaga, Emilio (Université de Nantes); dos Santos Gervásio, Helena Maria (Universidade de Coimbra)","","2021","The impact of climate change on ambient temperature and relative humidity along with the present CO2 levels are speeding the corrosion process of reinforced concrete structures. The alarming cost of the associated reduction of the service life of structures, which is estimated to cost 3% to 4% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of industrialized countries, has put the spotlight on the importance of introducing the issue of climate change on the new generation of Eurocodes. Amongst the strategies to tackle the problem, design-phase measures seem not to be always cost- effective, nevertheless, measures during service-life are generally the most expensive. This paper discusses the potential strategies to be addressed by structural codes to tackle the problem of climate change-induced corrosion, considering aspects such as the cost-benefit analysis, viability, and the large uncertainty involved in climate change evolution.","Climate change; Resilience; Corrosion; Structural codes","en","conference paper","CRC Press / Balkema - Taylor & Francis Group","","","","","Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.","","2021-08-05","","","Integral Design & Management","","",""
"uuid:fec5b7b5-feaf-4dc4-ba0c-5e3008d31d37","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:fec5b7b5-feaf-4dc4-ba0c-5e3008d31d37","Boundary spanning and adaptive capacity in Pearl River Delta megacities","Dabrowski, M.M. (TU Delft Spatial Planning and Strategy); Chan, Faith (The University of Nottingham Ningbo China); Meng, M. (South China University of Technology)","","2021","The cities of the Pearl River Delta (PRD) have been experiencing an unprecedented urban expansion for the past four decades, leading to emergence of one of the most populous and dynamic urban regions. However, these rapidly expanding cities located in a low-lying delta area also face increasing flood risk due to a combination of anthropogenic and natural factors. We use the concept of boundary spanning in combination with an institutionalist perspective to shed light on the barriers and opportunities for development of adaptive capacity in the face of that risk in Hong Kong and Guangzhou. As recognised in the flood risk management literature, such boundary spanning is necessary to effectively address the challenge of spatial adaptation to the growing flood risk, as it entails, for instance collaborating between policy sectors (horizontal boundaries), across levels of government (vertical boundaries) and between short-term and long-term planning agendas (temporal boundaries). Through the prism of institutions (e.g. planning system), ideas (e.g. dominant values in planning) and interests (e.g. rational choice-driven strategic behaviour of the actors involved), we assess how contextual institutional and cultural factors matter for the ability of those cities to address the growing flood risk in the face of climate change. The study builds on analysis of spatial planning and flood risk management policy documents, interviews with practitioners and experts, and site visits. Our findings show that due to institutional lock-ins and conflicting policy goals, horizontal boundary spanning remains hindered in both cases, despite emerging policy innovations, such as the Sponge City Plan in Guangzhou or the rollout of multi-functional and Nature-Based Solutions in Hong Kong. The responsibilities of institutions in both cities remain blurred, ‘planning for growth’ ignores flood and climate risk issues, and urban expansion into vulnerable areas continues. Important differences, however, exist in terms of vertical boundary spanning, pointing to different policy implications for each of the two cities","Climate change adaptation; Flood risk governance; Spatial planning; Adaptive capacity; Boundary spanning","en","conference paper","","","","","","","","","","","Spatial Planning and Strategy","","",""
"uuid:e8cc326a-0edf-496f-a417-4080e15edbeb","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:e8cc326a-0edf-496f-a417-4080e15edbeb","Detection of Disaster-Prone Vernacular Heritage Sites at District Scale: The Case of Fındıklı in Rize, Turkey","Aktürk, Gül (TU Delft History, Form & Aesthetics); Hauser, S.J. (TU Delft History, Form & Aesthetics)","","2021","The district of Fındıklı in the Northeast city of Rize in Turkey is environmentally and culturally rich with its rural, built, and natural heritage. The city of Rize has been experiencing more frequent and severe rainfall, flooding, and landslides in the last decade. River flooding along the coast and in the center of the city is destroying infrastructure and residential areas, while landslides are becoming more destructive and repetitive in the hinterland of the district. Vernacular heritage is particularly exposed to the catastrophic consequences of floods and landslides, e.g., through the deterioration of historic building façades. This paper aims to identify the vernacular settlements under the threat of natural disasters in the selected case area. ArcGIS software was used to reveal the changes in spatial planning since 1969 in combination with geo referenced built and natural heritage sites at risk in the district. The comparison between the maps of 1969 and 2019 aerial pictures on ArcGIS illustrates the river transformation, coastal change, urban sprawl, and deforestation as threats to vernacular heritage in the area. Furthermore, this paper will highlight landslide-prone sites in the hinterland and river floods on the coastal area on the current map to show heritage sites at risk. The findings of this study intend to present the accelerated effects of floods and landslides along with the mismanagement of land use and rivers on vernacular heritage at a district scale to inform decision- and policymakers on needed actions.","Climate change; Geographic information systems; Land use; Landslides; River flooding; Vernacular heritage","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","History, Form & Aesthetics","","",""
"uuid:a8df61e0-54d6-4c7b-b01a-d223895d9497","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:a8df61e0-54d6-4c7b-b01a-d223895d9497","Cultural Landscapes under the Threat of Climate Change: A Systematic Study of Barriers to Resilience","Aktürk, Gül (TU Delft History, Form & Aesthetics); Dastgerdi, Ahmadreza Shirvani (Cornell University; University of Camerino)","","2021","Cultural landscapes reflect a cultural group’s continuous and evolved interactions with natural resources and the environment. By now, climate change has become the most significant threat to cultural landscapes, e.g., food security, water scarcity, and displacement. The cultural and natural heritage of cultural landscapes can enhance their value as integrated systems and offer solutions to the challenges brought by climate change. Although exploring tangible impacts of climate change has received sufficient attention in cultural landscapes, a systematic understanding of the main barriers has been overlooked in building climate resilience in cultural landscapes. This paper aimed to explore the main barriers to building climate resilience in cultural landscapes. The research methodology was based on the content analysis of 359 documents published between 1995 and 2020. The results revealed that the integrated approach in documentation and assessments was the most quoted technical barrier. In addition, the lack of a regulatory framework for supporting effective collaboration and cooperation has been discussed as the most significant institutional obstacle to climate resilience in cultural landscapes.","Barriers; Climate change; Climate resilience; Cultural heritage; Cultural landscape","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","History, Form & Aesthetics","","",""
"uuid:002268b7-732b-49f1-b806-50146396a0ab","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:002268b7-732b-49f1-b806-50146396a0ab","Coral Reef Restorations Can Be Optimized to Reduce Coastal Flooding Hazards","Roelvink, Floortje E. (Deltares); Storlazzi, Curt D. (United States Geological Survey); van Dongeren, Ap R. (Deltares; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education); Pearson, S.G. (TU Delft Coastal Engineering; Deltares)","","2021","Coral reefs are effective natural coastal flood barriers that protect adjacent communities. Coral degradation compromises the coastal protection value of reefs while also reducing their other ecosystem services, making them a target for restoration. Here we provide a physics-based evaluation of how coral restoration can reduce coastal flooding for various types of reefs. Wave-driven flooding reduction is greatest for broader, shallower restorations on the upper fore reef and between the middle of the reef flat and the shoreline than for deeper locations on the fore reef or at the reef crest. These results indicate that to increase the coastal hazard risk reduction potential of reef restoration, more physically robust species of coral need to be outplanted to shallower, more energetic locations than more fragile, faster-growing species primarily being grown in coral nurseries. The optimization and quantification of coral reef restoration efforts to reduce coastal flooding may open hazard risk reduction funding for conservation purposes.","climate change; coastal protection; coastal risk; coral reefs; ecosystem services; reef degradation; reef restoration; wave runup","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Coastal Engineering","","",""
"uuid:a270d5f9-19b0-4b56-938e-76429f22e4b0","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:a270d5f9-19b0-4b56-938e-76429f22e4b0","Securing food under adverse climate and socioeconomic scenarios in Jiangsu Province, China: Critical role of human adaptation under change","Lyu, H. (TU Delft Water Resources; Hohai University); Dong, Zengchuan (Hohai University); Pande, S. (TU Delft Water Resources)","","2021","Food security is important for human well-being worldwide. However, changing climate, population growth and shrinking land resources are threatening food security in many regions of the world. Jiangsu Province, China, is one such region. It is a major food-producing region of the country but is witnessing rapid population growth and urbanization that is putting pressure on agricultural water and land resources and threatening food security of the region. This paper interprets the nexus between regional water availability and food security in Jiangsu Province under different climate change and socio-economic scenarios of population growth and land resource availability. Climate change scenarios are generated based on historical data and Global Climate Model (GCM) products. Socio-economic scenarios are generated based on population growth and crop planted area projections. The uptake of water and nutrients are considered as two dominant biophysical processes of crop growth and food production. Complementing it is human agency, including human labor, irrigation and land-preparation machinery, which are the factors behind water and nutrient use efficiencies of crops grown. Two dominant crops are considered, rice and wheat, that contribute to 61.4% of total crops produced in the province. Results show that adaptation by human agency is necessary to ensure that food supply meets at least the demand of the province under all climate change and socio-economic scenarios. Under relatively favorable scenarios, labor could replace land-preparing machinery since the level of food production can be easily maintained with abundant water and land availability. Mechanization in agricultural production significantly increases food production under unfavorable conditions, since it improves water and nutrient use efficiencies and leads to higher crop yields. This demonstrates that human agency plays an important role in securing food under stressful scenarios of drier climate, population growth, and contraction of agricultural lands.","Climate change; Food security; Scenario analysis; Trade-off between human labor and machinery in agriculture; Water and nutrient use efficiencies","en","journal article","","","","","","Accepted Author Manuscript","","2023-04-28","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:9812c946-eae2-43d2-b28e-d775445c10dd","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:9812c946-eae2-43d2-b28e-d775445c10dd","Adaptation to climate change in coastal towns of between 10,000 and 50,000 inhabitants","Doust, Ken (Southern Cross University; Windana Research Pty Ltd); Wejs, Anja (Region Midtjylland); Zhang, T. (Aalborg University); Swan, Andrew (Southern Cross University; AJSwan Consulting); Sultana, Nahid (University of New South Wales); Braneon, Christian (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies; SciSpace LLC); Luetz, Johannes (Christian Heritage College, Australia); Casset, Laura (Inc. (LAN)); Fatorić, Sandra (TU Delft History, Form & Aesthetics)","","2021","This chapter focuses on mainland coastal towns that have populations of between 10,000 and 50,000 inhabitants. Through six case studies, the chapter develops an understanding of the characteristics that shape each of the communities. By exploring the climate change hazards each of the case studies are experiencing now and forecast into the future, the physical and ecological profile and the human development condition, a view of the climate impacts for each is shaped. The six case study areas include towns that are large enough to be a regional centre, down to much less organised and resourced communities that are at a more subsistence level of development. The case studies include communities that range from tropical storm areas to more temperate climatic areas. Adaptation strategies for each case study are observed, drawing out the similarities and the differences. Insights and lessons learnt show that the bottom-up inclusion of all communities in shaping the adaptation approach is crucial, together with alignment of policy between governments from national to local. Also crucial is the resourcing of local councils which sit on the front line of many adaptation initiatives. The role of universities and other research organisations to provide data, skills training and a toolbox of methodologies to those in the front line leadership roles. An important insight is the collaborative opportunity for universities, communities and agencies to draw out the innovative adaptation strategies that can inform other coastal communities from the smallest village to the largest city.","Bottom up adaptation; Climate change; Coastal hazards; Coastal towns; Engaging communities","en","journal article","","","","","","Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.","","2022-01-28","","","History, Form & Aesthetics","","",""
"uuid:4a1ddb7e-57c7-421c-b442-32227c979fd3","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:4a1ddb7e-57c7-421c-b442-32227c979fd3","Climate Change and Cultural Heritage: A Systematic Literature Review (2016–2020)","Orr, Scott Allan (University College London (UCL)); Richards, Jenny (University of Oxford); Fatorić, Sandra (TU Delft History, Form & Aesthetics)","","2021","Research focusing on climate change and cultural heritage informs heritage management and policy. Fatorić and Seekamp assessed this field up to 2015, highlighting the need for periodic reassessment of the field given the observed growth and research that documents how cultural heritage contributes to climate change mitigation and adaptation. Five years on, this systematic review reflects on the state of the art by evaluating 165 publications (2016–2020) about cultural heritage and climate change. We find the field continues to grow, and remains rich in disciplinary and methodological diversity, but predominantly represents research in and about Europe. The number of publications about integrating cultural heritage into adaptation and mitigation are increasing but remain relatively few compared to those about physical impacts on individual buildings or sites. The impact of climate change on intangible heritage has rarely been the sole focus of recent research. Although researchers are increasingly situating their research in a wider context of opportunities and barriers, vague timescales, and unspecific references to changes in the natural environment are additional limitations. This review also identified a lack of international collaboration, highlighting the urgent need for global cooperation and knowledge exchange on climate change and cultural heritage.","climatic change; cultural landscapes; Cultural resources; heritage sites; historic environment; research meta-characteristics","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","History, Form & Aesthetics","","",""
"uuid:7ccdcd17-9ac1-48d4-9c57-47acd8e5012e","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:7ccdcd17-9ac1-48d4-9c57-47acd8e5012e","Scenarios for Controls of River Response to Climate Change in the Lower Rhine River","Ylla Arbos, C. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering); Blom, A. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering); Schielen, R.M.J. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering; Rijkswaterstaat)","","2021","","Climate Change; River Controls; Lower Rhine River","en","abstract","","","","","","Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.","","2021-08-12","","","Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering","","",""
"uuid:6c7d533b-634b-4de2-ad32-8c414132de95","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:6c7d533b-634b-4de2-ad32-8c414132de95","Scaling and responses of extreme hourly precipitation in three climate experiments with a convection-permitting model","Lenderink, G. (TU Delft Atmospheric Remote Sensing; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)); de Vries, Hylke (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)); Fowler, Hayley J. (Newcastle University); Barbero, Renaud (Newcastle University; INRAE); van Ulft, Bert (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)); van Meijgaard, Erik (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))","","2021","It is widely recognized that future rainfall extremes will intensify. This expectation is tied to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation, stating that the maximum water vapour content in the atmosphere increases by 6-7% per degree warming. Scaling rates for the dependency of hourly precipitation extremes on near-surface (dew point) temperature derived from day-to-day variability have been found to exceed this relation (super-CC). However, both the applicability of this approach in a long-term climate change context, and the physical realism of super-CC rates have been questioned. Here, we analyse three different climate change experiments with a convection-permitting model over Western Europe: simple uniform-warming, 11-year pseudo-global warming and 11-year global climate model driven. The uniform-warming experiment results in consistent increases to the intensity of hourly rainfall extremes of approximately 11% per degree for moderate to high extremes. The other two, more realistic, experiments show smaller increases-usually at or below the CC rate-for moderate extremes, mostly resulting from significant decreases to rainfall occurrence. However, changes to the most extreme events are broadly consistent with 1.5-2 times the CC rate (10-14% per degree), as predicted from the present-day scaling rate for the highest percentiles. This result has important implications for climate adaptation. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks'.","climate change; hourly precipitation extremes; precipitation scaling","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Atmospheric Remote Sensing","","",""
"uuid:a31740a8-5920-48df-967d-cffc951658ce","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:a31740a8-5920-48df-967d-cffc951658ce","On Venetian Campi Resilience to Climate Change","Gherri, B. (University of Parma); Maiullari, D. (TU Delft Environmental Technology and Design); Finizza, C. (University of Parma); Maretto, M. (University of Parma); Naboni, E. (University of Parma)","","2021","Venice is known for its history and beauty and its fragility and potential demise. The city is experiencing an increase in yearly average temperatures affecting outdoor - indoor comfort and average energy expenditure. Owing to existing literature demonstrating how local microclimate depends on urban density, shape, and orientation of buildings and materials, the work studies the influence of changing Venice temperatures by targeting such issues, focusing on an urban fabric typical form, known as Campi. Based on IPCC's future weather predictions for 2050 scenario A1B, the work highlights how the urban fabric configuration affects the local microclimate and outdoor conditions to define how buildings will mitigate and adapt to environmental transitions. The method couples microclimate and outdoor comfort users' perception of Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET), via ENVI-met. Preliminary results show that the compactness of the urban fabric in Venetian Campi significantly reduces outdoor temperatures due to the increased density of shadow areas in the courtyard or in narrow Venice streets. The role of water is also simulated via ENVI-met, as buildings' materials and indoor energy consumption are assumed as invariant to evaluate the historic urban fabric climate resilience. The results constitute a first step towards understanding to what extent a particular urban fabric type is thermally resilient.","Climate Change; Microclimate; Outdoor Liveability; Urban Form; Venice","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Environmental Technology and Design","","",""
"uuid:077a9609-900f-4691-83a3-758659a573be","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:077a9609-900f-4691-83a3-758659a573be","Mitigating a century of European renewable variability with transmission and informed siting","Wohland, Jan (ETH Zürich); Brayshaw, David (University of Reading); Pfenninger, Stefan (TU Delft Energie and Industrie; ETH Zürich)","","2021","To reach its goal of net greenhouse gas neutrality by 2050, the European Union seeks to massively expand wind and solar power. Relying on weather-dependent power generation, however, poses substantial risks if climate variability is not adequately understood and accounted for in energy system design. Here we quantify European wind and solar generation variability over the last century, finding that both vary on a multidecadal scale, but wind more strongly. We identify hotspots and study dominant patterns of (co-)variability, finding that solar generation varies mostly uniformly across Europe while the leading wind variability modes reveal cross-border balancing potential. Combined wind and solar power generation in the current European system exhibits multidecadal variability of around 5% and can be further reduced through European cooperation or locally optimized wind shares, albeit the latter comes at the expense of significantly enhancing seasonal to interannual variability. Improved spatial planning therefore offers multiple options to mitigate long-term renewable generation variability but requires careful assessments of the trade-offs between climate-induced variations on different timescales.","climate change mitigation; climate variability; multidecadal variability; renewable energy; solar energy; transmission infrastructure; wind energy","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Energie and Industrie","","",""
"uuid:86861bd2-48c9-456a-b764-ed82688d933a","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:86861bd2-48c9-456a-b764-ed82688d933a","Adaptive capacity of the Pearl River Delta cities in the face of the growing flood risk: Institutions, ideas and interests","Dabrowski, M.M. (TU Delft Spatial Planning and Strategy); Stead, D. (TU Delft Spatial Planning and Strategy); He, J. (South China University of Technology); Yu, Feng (South China University of Technology)","","2021","Although the cities in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) in China are amongst the world’s cities most exposed to flooding due to climate change, surprisingly little is done to address this problem. This article explores the barriers to the emergence of policies adapting to the growing flood risk in two PRD cities, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, underlining the importance of the Chinese territorial governance system for adaptive capacity at the local level. Focusing on institutions, ideas and interests as a heuristic device, the article contributes to the literature on urban climate adaptation and the nexus of spatial planning and flood risk management by exploring why and how the development of the adaptive capacity of cities is hampered, despite an urgent need for it.","adaptive capacity; climate change adaptation; flood risk; governance; spatial planning","en","journal article","","","","","","Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.","","2021-07-17","","","Spatial Planning and Strategy","","",""
"uuid:8ad47f4b-b31b-480e-9c37-58358a37eea9","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:8ad47f4b-b31b-480e-9c37-58358a37eea9","Fragile airports. Fragile cities. Fragile landscapes","Cipriani, L. (TU Delft Landscape Architecture)","","2021","Recent events provide ample proof of the fragility of cities, territories and airport nodes when they come face-to-face with extreme and unexpected events. The Coronavirus pandemic, for example, has caused a complete disruption in the air network. Climate change, recurrent floods, rising seas, desertification, land impoverishment and, more generally, extreme meteorological events can temporarily or permanently compromise mobility networks and spaces. Airports are, in fact, highly vulnerable elements of infrastructure that require precise adaptation and mitigation strategies at various levels. What role can urban and landscape planning play in future decisions regarding new infrastructural sites and the adaptation of old infrastructure to climatic change and possible new functions?","airport fragility; airport disruption; Climate change adaptation","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Landscape Architecture","","",""
"uuid:7c359de3-07a4-406e-b916-424b5186a75f","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:7c359de3-07a4-406e-b916-424b5186a75f","Guidelines for Studying Diverse Types of Compound Weather and Climate Events","Bevacqua, Emanuele (Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ; University of Reading); De Michele, Carlo (Politecnico di Milano); Manning, Colin (Newcastle University); Couasnon, A.A.O. (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Ribeiro, Andreia F.S. (ETH Zürich; University of Lisbon); Ramos, Alexandre M. (University of Lisbon); Ragno, E. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk); Saunders, Kate (Queensland University of Technology); Zhang, Tianyi (Chinese Academy of Sciences)","","2021","Compound weather and climate events are combinations of climate drivers and/or hazards that contribute to societal or environmental risk. Studying compound events often requires a multidisciplinary approach combining domain knowledge of the underlying processes with, for example, statistical methods and climate model outputs. Recently, to aid the development of research on compound events, four compound event types were introduced, namely (a) preconditioned, (b) multivariate, (c) temporally compounding, and (d) spatially compounding events. However, guidelines on how to study these types of events are still lacking. Here, we consider four case studies, each associated with a specific event type and a research question, to illustrate how the key elements of compound events (e.g., analytical tools and relevant physical effects) can be identified. These case studies show that (a) impacts on crops from hot and dry summers can be exacerbated by preconditioning effects of dry and bright springs. (b) Assessing compound coastal flooding in Perth (Australia) requires considering the dynamics of a non-stationary multivariate process. For instance, future mean sea-level rise will lead to the emergence of concurrent coastal and fluvial extremes, enhancing compound flooding risk. (c) In Portugal, deep-landslides are often caused by temporal clusters of moderate precipitation events. Finally, (d) crop yield failures in France and Germany are strongly correlated, threatening European food security through spatially compounding effects. These analyses allow for identifying general recommendations for studying compound events. Overall, our insights can serve as a blueprint for compound event analysis across disciplines and sectors.","climate change; compound events; environmental risk; guidelines; multidisciplinary; typology","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk","","",""
"uuid:1e39f56d-d31e-4bcd-8549-1484b7a36b93","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:1e39f56d-d31e-4bcd-8549-1484b7a36b93","Climate change induced trends and uncertainties in phytoplankton spring bloom dynamics","Mészáros, L. (TU Delft Statistics; Deltares); van der Meulen, F.H. (TU Delft Statistics); Jongbloed, G. (TU Delft Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics); El Serafy, G.Y.H. (TU Delft Mathematical Physics; Deltares)","","2021","Spring phytoplankton blooms in the southern North Sea substantially contribute to annual primary production and largely influence food web dynamics. Studying long-term changes in spring bloom dynamics is therefore crucial for understanding future climate responses and predicting implications on the marine ecosystem. This paper aims to study long term changes in spring bloom dynamics in the Dutch coastal waters, using historical coastal in-situ data and satellite observations as well as projected future solar radiation and air temperature trajectories from regional climate models as driving forces covering the twenty-first century. The main objective is to derive long-term trends and quantify climate induced uncertainties in future coastal phytoplankton phenology. The three main methodological steps to achieve this goal include (1) developing a data fusion model to interlace coastal in-situ measurements and satellite chlorophyll-a observations into a single multi-decadal signal; (2) applying a Bayesian structural time series model to produce long-term projections of chlorophyll-a concentrations over the twenty-first century; and (3) developing a feature extraction method to derive the cardinal dates (beginning, peak, end) of the spring bloom to track the historical and the projected changes in its dynamics. The data fusion model produced an enhanced chlorophyll-a time series with improved accuracy by correcting the satellite observed signal with in-situ observations. The applied structural time series model proved to have sufficient goodness-of-fit to produce long term chlorophyll-a projections, and the feature extraction method was found to be robust in detecting cardinal dates when spring blooms were present. The main research findings indicate that at the study site location the spring bloom characteristics are impacted by the changing climatic conditions. Our results suggest that toward the end of the twenty-first century spring blooms will steadily shift earlier, resulting in longer spring bloom duration. Spring bloom magnitudes are also projected to increase with a 0.4% year−1 trend. Based on the ensemble simulation the largest uncertainty lies in the timing of the spring bloom beginning and-end timing, while the peak timing has less variation. Further studies would be required to link the findings of this paper and ecosystem behavior to better understand possible consequences to the ecosystem.","Bayesian model; Climate change; Data fusion; Non-parametric regression; Phytoplankton phenology; Regional climate model; Uncertainty quantification","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Statistics","","",""
"uuid:9aeb33b8-3cd9-48a4-b591-b7cd3b407177","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:9aeb33b8-3cd9-48a4-b591-b7cd3b407177","Glacier area and snow cover changes in the range system surrounding tarim from 2000 to 2020 using google earth engine","Zhang, Jing (Chinese Academy of Sciences; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences); Jia, Li (Chinese Academy of Sciences); Menenti, M. (TU Delft Optical and Laser Remote Sensing; Chinese Academy of Sciences); Zhou, Jie (Central China Normal University); Ren, Shaoting (Chinese Academy of Sciences)","","2021","Glacier and snow are sensitive indicators of regional climate variability. In the early 21st century, glaciers in the West Kunlun and Pamir regions showed stable or even slightly positive mass budgets, and this is anomalous in a worldwide context of glacier recession. We studied the evolution of snow cover to understand whether it could explain the evolution of glacier area. In this study, we used the thresholding of the NDSI (Normalized Difference Snow Index) retrieved with MODIS data to extract annual glacier area and snow cover. We evaluated how the glacier trends related to snow cover area in five subregions in the Tarim Basin. The uncertainty in our retrievals was assessed by comparing MODIS results with the Landsat-5 TM in 2000 and Landsat-8 OLI in 2020 glacier delineation in five subregions. The glacier area in the Tarim Basin decreased by 1.32%/a during 2000–2020. The fastest reductions were in the East Tien Shan region, while the slowest relative reduction rate was observed in the West Tien Shan and Pamir, i.e., 0.69%/a and 1.08%/a, respectively, during 2000–2020. The relative glacier stability in Pamir may be related to the westerlies weather system, which dominates climate in this region. We studied the temporal variability of snow cover on different temporal scales. The analysis of the monthly snow cover showed that permanent snow can be reliably delineated in the months from July to September. During the summer months, the sequence of multiple snowfall and snowmelt events leads to intermittent snow cover, which was the key feature applied to discriminate snow and glacier.","Climate change; Glacier area; MODIS; Snow cover; Tarim Basin","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Optical and Laser Remote Sensing","","",""
"uuid:995129f4-ccad-4aac-9fc6-0de7b4997889","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:995129f4-ccad-4aac-9fc6-0de7b4997889","Planning and Suitability Assessment of Large-scale Nature-based Solutions for Flood-risk Reduction","Mubeen, Adam (IHE Delft Institute for Water Education); Ruangpan, L. (TU Delft Water Resources; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education); Vojinovic, Zoran (University of Exeter; University of Belgrade; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education); Torrez, Arlex Sanchez (IHE Delft Institute for Water Education); Plavšić, Jasna (University of Belgrade)","","2021","Adverse effects of climate change are increasing around the world and the floods are posing significant challenges for water managers. With climate projections showing increased risks of storms and extreme precipitation, the use of traditional measures alone is no longer an option. Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) offer a suitable alternative to reduce the risk of flooding and provide multiple benefits. However, planning such interventions requires careful consideration of various factors and local contexts. The present paper provides contribution in this direction and it proposes a methodology for allocation of large-scale NBS using suitability mapping. The methodology was implemented within the toolboxes of ESRI ArcMap software in order to map suitability for four types of NBS interventions: floodplain restoration, detention basins, retention ponds, and river widening. The toolboxes developed were applied to the case study area in Serbia, i.e., the Tamnava River basin. Flood maps were used to determine the volume of floodwater that needs to be stored for reducing flood risk in the basin and subsequent downstream areas. The suitability maps produced indicate the potential of the new methodology and its application as a decision-support tool for selection and allocation of large-scale NBS.","Climate change; Flood risk reduction; Nature-based solutions; Suitability mapping","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:94fc5e34-3aed-4309-884e-2113efc56d57","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:94fc5e34-3aed-4309-884e-2113efc56d57","An integrated framework of coastal flood modelling under the failures of sea dikes: a case study in Shanghai","Ke, Q. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk); Yin, Jiangshan (Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute); Bricker, J.D. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk; University of Michigan); Savage, Nicholas (Met Office); Buonomo, Erasmo (Met Office); Ye, Qinghua (Deltares); Visser, P.J. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering); Dong, Guangtao (Shanghai Climate Centre); Jonkman, Sebastiaan N. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk)","","2021","Climate change leads to sea level rise worldwide, as well as increases in the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones (TCs). Storm surge induced by TC’s, together with spring tides, threatens to cause failure of flood defenses, resulting in massive flooding in low-lying coastal areas. However, limited research has been done on the combined effects of the increasing intensity of TCs and sea level rise on the characteristics of coastal flooding due to the failure of sea dikes. This paper investigates the spatial variation of coastal flooding due to the failure of sea dikes subject to past and future TC climatology and sea level rise, via a case study of a low-lying deltaic city- Shanghai, China. Using a hydrodynamic model and a spectral wave model, storm tide and wave parameters were calculated as input for an empirical model of overtopping discharge rate. The results show that the change of storm climatology together with relative sea level rise (RSLR) largely exacerbates the coastal hazard for Shanghai in the future, in which RSLR is likely to have a larger effect than the TC climatology change on future coastal flooding in Shanghai. In addition, the coastal flood hazard will increase to a large extent in terms of the flood water volume for each corresponding given return period. The approach developed in this paper can also be utilized to investigate future flood risk for other low-lying coastal regions.","Climate change; Coastal flooding; Dike failure; Sea level rise; Tropical cyclone","en","journal article","","","","","","Correction DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04935-y","","","","","Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk","","",""
"uuid:7ee94817-5884-4c32-8ee6-0e5d64b2adae","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:7ee94817-5884-4c32-8ee6-0e5d64b2adae","Implications of climate change for railway infrastructure","Palin, Erika J. (Met Office); Stipanovic Oslakovic, Irina (University of Twente; Infra Plan Consulting Ltd.); Gavin, Kenneth (TU Delft Geo-engineering); Quinn, Andrew (University of Birmingham)","","2021","Weather phenomena can result in severe impacts on railway infrastructure. In future, projected changes to the frequency and/or intensity of extreme weather events could change weather–infrastructure risk profiles. Infrastructure owners and operators need to manage current weather impacts and put in place adequate plans to anticipate and adapt to changes in future weather risks, or mitigate the impacts arising from those risks. The assessment of the risk posed to railway infrastructure from current and future weather is dependent on a good understanding of the constituent components of risk: hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. A good understanding of the baseline and projected future risk is needed in order to understand the potential benefits of various climate change adaptation actions. Traditional risk assessment methods need some modification in order to be applied to climate change timescales, for which decisions need to be made under deep uncertainty. This review paper highlights some key challenges for assessing the risk, including: managing uncertainties; understanding weather-impact relationships and how they could change with climate change; assessing the costs of current and future weather impacts and the potential cost versus benefit of adaptation; and understanding practices and tools for adapting railway infrastructure. The literature reveals examples of progress and good practice in all these areas, providing scope for effective knowledge-sharing—across the railway infrastructure and other sectors—in support of infrastructure resilience and adaptation.
2 effects","Niklaβ, Malte (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Grewe, V. (TU Delft Aircraft Noise and Climate Effects; Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Gollnick, Volker (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR); Hamburg University of Technology); Dahlmann, Katrin (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR))","","2021","Approximately 50–75% of aviation's climate impact is caused by non-CO2 effects, like the production of ozone and the formation of contrail cirrus clouds, which can be effectively prevented by re-routing flights around highly climate-sensitive areas. Here, we discuss options how to incentivize re-routing approaches and apply multicriteria trajectory optimizations to demonstrate the feasibility of the concept of climate-charged airspaces (CCAs). We show that although climate-optimized re-routing results in slightly longer flight times, increased fuel consumption and higher operating costs, it is more climate-friendly compared to a cost-optimized routing. In accordance to other studies, we find that the averaged temperature response over 100 years (ATR (Formula presented.)) of a single flight can be reduced by up to 40%. However, if mitigation efforts are associated with a direct increase in costs, there is a need for climate policies. To address the lack of incentivizing airlines to internalize their climate costs, this study focuses on the CCA concept, which imposes a climate charge on airlines when operating in highly climate-sensitive areas. If CCAs are (partly) bypassed, both climate impact and operating costs of a flight can be reduced: a more climate-friendly routing becomes economically attractive. For an exemplary North-Atlantic network, CCAs create a financial incentive for climate mitigation, achieving on average more than 90% of the climate impact reduction potential of climate-optimized trajectories (theoretical maximum, benchmark). Key policy insights Existing climate policies for aviation do not address non- (Formula presented.) effects, which are very sensitive to the location and the timing of the emission. By imposing a temporary climate charge for airlines that operate in highly climate-sensitive regions, the trade-off between economic viability and environmental compatibility could be resolved: Climate impact mitigation of non- (Formula presented.) effects coincides with cutting costs. To ensure easy planning and verification, climate charges are calculated analogously to en-route and terminal charges. For climate mitigation it is therefore neither necessary to monitor emissions ((Formula presented.) (Formula presented.), etc.) nor to integrate complex non- (Formula presented.) effects into flight planning procedures of airlines. Its implementation is feasible and effective.","aviation emissions; climate change mitigation; cost-benefit analysis; non- effects; trajectory optimization; Transport policy","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Aircraft Noise and Climate Effects","","",""
"uuid:a80e59b6-fd3a-4516-8984-439f31145678","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:a80e59b6-fd3a-4516-8984-439f31145678","Is the tropical cyclone surge in Shanghai more sensitive to landfall location or intensity change?","Wang, Shuai (Imperial College London); Toumi, Ralf (Imperial College London); Ye, Qinghua (TU Delft Coastal Engineering; Deltares); Ke, Q. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk); Bricker, J.D. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk; University of Michigan); Tian, Zhan (Southern University of Science and Technology); Sun, Laixiang (University of Maryland; SOAS University of London)","","2021","It has been shown that the proportion of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) has been increasing together with a poleward migration of TC track. However, their relative importance to TC surge at landfall remains unknown. Here we examine the sensitivity of TC surge in Shanghai to landfall location and intensity with a new dynamical modelling framework. We find a surge sensitivity of 0.8 m (°N)−1 to landfall location, and 0.1 m (m s−1)−1 to wind speed in Shanghai during landfall. The landfall location and intensity are comparably important to surge variation. However, based on a plausible range of reported trends of TC poleward migration and intensity, the potential surge hazard due to poleward migration is estimated to be about three times larger than that by intensity change. The long-term surge risk in Shanghai is therefore substantially more sensitive to changes of TC track and landfall location than intensity. This may also be true elsewhere and in the future.","climate change; landfall; storm surge; tropical cyclone","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Coastal Engineering","","",""
"uuid:c8191fc0-8259-4eeb-a9a0-b19590c1bb46","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:c8191fc0-8259-4eeb-a9a0-b19590c1bb46","Communities of innovation for climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction: Niche creation and anticipation","López-Gunn, Elena (Icatalist S.L.); Swinkels, J.R.A. (TU Delft Beheer Grootschalige (EU) Projecten); Anzaldúa, Gerardo (Ecologic Institut gemeinnützige); Bea, Manuel (Icatalist S.L.); Colaço, Maria Conceição (University of Lisbon); Deksne, Māra (Student TU Delft); Lalaj, Nensi (National Territorial Planning Agency); McDonald, Hugh (Ecologic Institut gemeinnützige); Rica, Marta (Icatalist S.L.)","","2021","This paper presents the concept of communities of innovation for climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. The paper discusses the added value of these types of communities to help address uncertain futures from the impact of climate change, which are highly context dependent. The paper frames these communities of innovation as part of innovation ecosystems in order to reflect on their key elements and added value. We argue that climate change and disaster risk management responses need to meet the needs of those experiencing problems with those that can offer solutions in distinct localities, including those that could fund or finance potential innovative solutions. Developing communities of innovation with the specific task of anticipating and creating niche solutions has been gaining traction in the EU. Some developed under the H2020 BRIGAID project are analysed here for other emergent COIs, as future-oriented communities tasked with the challenge to reduce disaster risks and enhance the climate resilience in their own spaces. This paper reflects on the experience of participants in these communities and their reflections and experience on whether these offer a useful form of organisation to anticipate future challenges, create niche solutions, and bring innovations to the market. The paper concludes with how communities of innovation can contribute to niche design and narratives of change to help achieve social and environmental resilience to reframe and help transition and transform current systems into more resilient, future-oriented communities.","Anticipation; Climate change; Communities; Innovation ecosystems; Niche","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Beheer Grootschalige (EU) Projecten","","",""
"uuid:938611e3-4a2d-4944-a010-bc394055ed34","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:938611e3-4a2d-4944-a010-bc394055ed34","A GPU-based integrated simulation framework for modelling of complex subsurface applications","Khait, M. (TU Delft Reservoir Engineering); Voskov, D.V. (TU Delft Reservoir Engineering; Stanford University)","","2021","Alternative to CPU computing architectures, such as GPU, continue to evolve increasing the gap in peak memory bandwidth achievable on a conventional workstation or laptop. Such architectures are attractive for reservoir simulation, which performance is generally bounded by system memory bandwidth. However, to harvest the benefit of a new architecture, the source code has to be inevitably rewritten, sometimes almost completely. One of the biggest challenges here is to refactor the Jacobian assembly which typically involves large volumes of code and complex data processing. We demonstrate an effective and general way to simplify the linearization stage extracting complex physics-related computations from the main simulation loop and leaving only an algebraic multi-linear interpolation kernel instead. In this work, we provide the detailed description of simulation performance benefits from execution of the entire nonlinear loop on the GPU platform. We evaluate the computational performance of Delft Advanced Research Terra Simulator (DARTS) for various subsurface applications of practical interest on both CPU and GPU platforms, comparing particular workflow phases including Jacobian assembly and linear system solution with both stages of the Constraint Pressure Residual preconditioner.","sustainable development; enhanced recovery; reservoir characterization; climate change; subsurface storage; social responsibility; upstream oil & gas; simulation; renewable energy; peak memory bandwidth","en","conference paper","Society of Petroleum Engineers","","","","","Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.","","2022-04-19","","","Reservoir Engineering","","",""
"uuid:d86aee16-0b80-43ab-806c-d6f3a265d3ad","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d86aee16-0b80-43ab-806c-d6f3a265d3ad","Shanghai’s Strive to Excel in Climate Change Adaptation and Low-Carbon Promises: A Model to Follow?","den Hartog, Harry (TU Delft History, Form & Aesthetics)","","2021","The subtitle of Shanghai’s latest Master Plan (2017–2035) is “Striving for an Excellent Global City.” According to this plan, Shanghai wants to compete, and possibly surpass, other global cities such as New York, London, Paris, Singapore, and Tokyo in terms of economy, image, and quality of life. The plan’s authors state that “the world has stepped into an era of ecological civilization that puts environmental friendliness and humanistic approach first;” Shanghai aims “to play the pioneering role in the reform and opening-up into this new era and set up the pace for innovation and development.” To achieve its aims, the Master Plan includes ecological ambitions and promises, such as a five percent reduction of total carbon emissions, a halving of particulate matter emissions, a ban on raw waste landfills, and the development of more than 300 square kilometers of new green structures, all to be realized before 2035.
This chapter highlights the tension between China’s push towards growth and urbanization against the need to safeguard its cities from environmental threats. As will be described, this tension has played out in stark terms in Shanghai, where leaders are grappling with how to advance their development objectives, which have historically relied on reclaiming wetlands, while adapting to rising seas and strengthening storms.","climate change adaptation; ecological civilization; low-carbon; urbanization","en","journal article","","","","","","The SSRN version was published in 2021, ahead of the forthcoming release 'Global Sustainable Cities?' edited by Danielle Spiegel-Feld, Katrina Wyman and John Coughlin, NYU Press (ISBN: 9781479805716). The chapter was integrally released in this publication in 2023 (pp. 291-307).","","","","","History, Form & Aesthetics","","",""
"uuid:194de17c-7d59-4be4-b8ee-5d1d32318036","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:194de17c-7d59-4be4-b8ee-5d1d32318036","Process of energy conservation in the extremely haloalkaliphilic methyl-reducing methanogen Methanonatronarchaeum thermophilum","Steiniger, Fabian (Universität Bonn); Sorokin, Dimitry Y. (TU Delft BT/Environmental Biotechnology; Russian Academy of Sciences); Deppenmeier, Uwe (Universität Bonn)","","2021","The recently isolated methanogen Methanonatronarchaeum thermophilum is an extremely haloalkaliphilic and moderately thermophilic archaeon and belongs to the novel class Methanonatronarchaeia in the phylum Halobacteriota. The knowledge about the physiology and biochemistry of members of the class Methanonatronarchaeia is still limited. It is known that M. thermophilum performs hydrogen or formate-dependent methyl-reducing methanogenesis. Here, we show that the organism was able to grow on all tested C1-methylated substrates (methanol, trimethylamine, dimethylamine, monomethylamine) in combination with formate or molecular hydrogen. A temporary accumulation of intermediates (dimethylamine or/and monomethylamine) in the medium occurred during the consumption of trimethylamine or dimethylamine. The energy conservation of M. thermophilum was dependent on a respiratory chain consisting of a hydrogenase (VhoGAC), a formate dehydrogenase (FdhGHI), and a heterodisulfide reductase (HdrDE) that were well adapted to the harsh physicochemical conditions in the natural habitat. The experiments revealed the presence of two variants of energy-conserving oxidoreductase systems in the membrane. These included the H2: heterodisulfide oxidoreductase system, which has already been described in Methanosarcina species, as well as the novel formate: heterodisulfide oxidoreductase system. The latter electron transport chain, which was experimentally proven for the first time, distinguishes the organism from all other known methanogenic archaea and represents a unique feature of the class Methanonatronarchaeia. Experiments with 2-hydroxyphenazine and the inhibitor diphenyleneiodonium chloride indicated that a methanophenazine-like cofactor might function as an electron carrier between the hydrogenase/ formate dehydrogenase and the heterodisulfide reductase.","climate change; methane; methanogenesis; phenazine; respiratory chain","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","BT/Environmental Biotechnology","","",""
"uuid:6c7e99c6-6688-4fbf-bd58-b73895cd04e2","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:6c7e99c6-6688-4fbf-bd58-b73895cd04e2","Policy Diffusion Through Multiple Streams: The (Non-)Adoption of Energy Conservation Building Code in India(sic)(sic)(sic)Palabras clave: The (Non-)Adoption of Energy Conservation Building Code in India","Goyal, N. (TU Delft Organisation & Governance)","","2021","Although the diffusion of policy innovations can promote sustainability, how this process can be accelerated remains unclear. I address this gap by conceptualizing policy transfer and policy diffusion using the multiple streams framework (MSF) and developing hypotheses to connect them. I apply this theorization to explain the limited spread of the energy conservation building code (ECBC) in India by combining a process trace of policy adoption in the embedded case of Andhra Pradesh with a dyadic event history analysis of state-level diffusion during 2012-18. The data for this study are collated from official statistics, elite interviews, news reports, policy documents, and secondary literature. The qualitative analysis shows that policy transfer to Andhra Pradesh occurred when external influence and prior adoption elsewhere were used by a policy entrepreneur to exploit a window of opportunity and couple problem, policy, and politics in the state; the dyadic analysis demonstrates that policy diffusion was influenced by the interaction among the structural characteristics of the problem, policy, and politics streams. I conclude with the implications for research on policy diffusion and the MSF as well as the relevance of the findings for promoting policy innovation for a sustainable energy transition.","climate change mitigation; multiple streams framework; policy diffusion; policy entrepreneurship; policy innovation; policy learning; policy transfer; sustainable energy transition","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Organisation & Governance","","",""
"uuid:4efa6005-8e3a-4462-9f39-1bbeb01c36c6","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:4efa6005-8e3a-4462-9f39-1bbeb01c36c6","Frugal Eco-innovation for Addressing Climate Change in Emerging Countries: Case of Biogas Digester in Indonesia","Ismail, Cynthia (PT Sustainability and Resilience); Wiropranoto, Fabian (PT Sustainability and Resilience); Takama, Takeshi (PT Sustainability and Resilience); Della Santina, C. (TU Delft Learning & Autonomous Control); Virla, Luis D. (University of Calgary)","","2021","Technological innovation is considered to be one of the key strategies to maintain the global temperature below 2 °C. Since emerging and low-income countries are now responsible for reducing greenhouse gases (GHGs) under the Paris agreement, there is an implied need to balance their development mandate and climate change policies. This chapter highlights frugal eco-innovation as a means of providing basic needs while including the requirement to urgently address climate change in these regions. The characteristics of frugal and eco-innovation are explored to identify the appropriateness of technologies within the context of emerging and low-income regions. These characteristics are applied to demonstrate the economic and social benefits of the low-carbon technologies at the local level. Meanwhile, the eco-innovation’s characteristics demonstrate a potential for cascading positive impacts at a larger scale. Finally, the Alternative Pathways framework is applied to describe the trajectory of frugal eco-innovation through low-carbon narratives. This framework also helps to make explicit the dominating fossil fuel pathway and powerful actors while identifying alternative technology pathways and different (nondominating) actor groups that could potentially transform the rural energy system. Portable biogas is identified as a frugal eco-innovation that represents an alternative pathway which can potentially lead to wider transformation for the cooking energy sector in rural Indonesia. The innovation can create knock-on socioeconomic benefits for lower-income communities while contributing to GHG emission reduction at national level. This frugal eco-innovation process is led by the private sectors with the support of policy environment and acceptance and implementation at the local community level.","Alternative pathways; Clean cooking energy; Climate change; Frugal eco-innovation; Indonesia","en","book chapter","Springer","","","","","Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.","","2022-05-04","","","Learning & Autonomous Control","","",""
"uuid:512318dd-97cd-44e4-9b22-da31f73ba2df","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:512318dd-97cd-44e4-9b22-da31f73ba2df","A Drop in the Ocean. On Writing Histories of Water Resources Management","Ertsen, M.W. (TU Delft Water Resources); Morgan, Ruth A. (Australian National University)","Bogardi, Janos J. (editor); Gupta, Joyeeta (editor); Nandalal, K. D. Wasantha (editor); Salamé, Léna (editor); van Nooijen, Ronald R.P. (editor); Kumar, Navneet (editor); Tingsanchali, Tawatchai (editor); Bhaduri, Anik (editor); Kolechkina, Alla G. (editor)","2021","This text builds on the shared focus of historians and engineers to understand how particular circumstances came to be. In their endeavours, engineers regularly turn attention to the past, many times with the explicit aim to build on the past. In this chapter, it is discussed why these water histories written by engineers are vulnerable to being less correct. Using a range of scholarship on water history and shared experiences within the International Water History Association, we discuss the core of any historical scholarship: a drive to demonstrate and understand the complexity of the past. As such, this chapter wants to warn against the engineering drive to use (water) history as a guide towards the future. Instead, we propose a perspective of history as a way of reading and understanding the complex paths we have travelled until now.","Historiography; Grand narratives; Deserts; Colonial irrigation; Climate change","en","book chapter","Springer","","","","","Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.","","2021-12-13","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:2f932076-032a-4478-a8c2-102272d332dc","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:2f932076-032a-4478-a8c2-102272d332dc","Stochastic carbon dioxide forecasting model for concrete durability applications","Habeeb, B. (Université de Nantes); Bastidas-Arteaga, E. (La Rochelle University); Gervásio, H. (Universidade de Coimbra); Nogal Macho, M. (TU Delft Integral Design & Management)","Matos, José C. (editor); Lourenço, Paulo B. (editor); Oliveira, Daniel V. (editor); Branco, Jorge (editor); Proske, Dirk (editor); Silva, Rui A. (editor); Sousa, Hélder S. (editor)","2021","Over the Earth’s history, the climate has changed considerably due to natural processes affecting directly the earth. In the last century, these changes have perpetrated global warming. Carbon dioxide is the main trigger for climate change as it represents approximately up to 80% of the total greenhouse gas emissions. Climate change and concrete carbonation accelerate the corrosion process increasing the infrastructure maintenance and repair costs of hundreds of billions of dollars annually. The concrete carbonation process is based on the presence of carbon dioxide and moisture, which lowers the pH value to around 9, in which the protective oxide layer surrounding the reinforcing steel bars is penetrated and corrosion takes place. Predicting the effective retained service life and the need for repairs of the concrete structure subjected to carbonation requires carbon dioxide forecasting in order to increase the lifespan of the bridge. In this paper, short term memory process models were used to analyze a historical carbon dioxide database, and specifically to fill in the missing database values and perform predictions. Various models were used and the accuracy of the models was compared. We found that the proposed Stochastic Markovian Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (MSARIMA) model provides R2 value of 98.8%, accuracy in forecasting value of 89.7% and a variance in the value of the individual errors of 0.12. When compared with the CO2 database values, the proposed MSARIMA model provides a variance value of −0.1 and a coefficient of variation value of −8.0e−4.","Climate change; Seasonal Stochastic Markovian Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model; Concrete carbonation; Carbon dioxide forecasting; Infrastructure reliability","en","conference paper","Springer","","","","","Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.","","2021-11-08","","","Integral Design & Management","","",""
"uuid:ec79e388-89b3-4f4f-8ac5-939413e9175a","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:ec79e388-89b3-4f4f-8ac5-939413e9175a","Meeting at the crossroads? Developing national strategies for disaster risk reduction and resilience: Relevance, scope for, and challenges to, integration","Wamsler, Christine (Uppsala University; Lund University); Johannessen, A. (TU Delft Water Resources; Lund University)","","2020","Increasing impacts from disasters and climate hazards have prompted international efforts to promote the development of national disaster risk reduction and resilience (DRRR) strategies intended to reduce mortality and other losses. The development of such strategies is the subject of target E of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015–2030). Furthermore, an increasing understanding of the need to address the root causes of risk has led to calls for greater coherence between strategies that focus on DRRR, and those dedicated to climate change adaptation and sustainable development goals. The purpose of this paper is to increase knowledge on associated decision-making in general, and in Sweden in particular. We analyze the relevance and scope of a Swedish DRRR strategy, and identify drivers and barriers to integrated development and implementation. Based on document reviews, and interviews and group discussions with representatives in Sweden and six European countries, the results highlight a growing awareness that much remains to be learnt and shared between domains in order to progress towards integrated DRRR and more climate-proof sustainable development. In practice, most strategies are developed independently and related actors work in silos, leading to power struggles with negative impacts on national and local capacity. At the same time, windows of opportunity are appearing for the development of national DRRR strategies and increased policy coherence. We discuss these, and present some policy recommendations.","Agenda 2030; Climate change; Climate change adaptation; Climate policy integration; Disaster management; Disaster risk reduction; Local strategies; Mainstreaming; National strategies; Paris agreement; Resilience building; Risk reduction; Sendai Framework; Sustainable development; Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:f0962aa9-6974-4d5a-a5ba-70a9a7ba2059","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:f0962aa9-6974-4d5a-a5ba-70a9a7ba2059","On the sustainability of CO2 storage through CO2 – Enhanced oil recovery","Farajzadeh, R. (TU Delft Reservoir Engineering); Eftekhari, A. A. (Center of Electron Nanoscopy); Dafnomilis, I.; Lake, L. W. (The University of Texas at Austin); Bruining, J. (TU Delft Reservoir Engineering)","","2020","This work uses pilot examples of CO2 enhanced oil recovery to analyze whether and under which circumstances it is exergetically favorable to sequester CO2 through enhanced oil recovery. We find that the net storage efficiency (ratio between the stored and captured CO2) of the carbon capture and storage (CCS)-only projects is maximally 6–56% depending on the fuel used in the power plants. With the current state of technology, the CCS process will re-emit a minimum of 0.43–0.94 kg of CO2 per kg of CO2 stored. From thermodynamics point of view, CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) with CCS option is not sustainable, i.e., during the life cycle of the process more energy is consumed than the energy produced from oil. For the CCS to be efficient in reducing CO2 levels (1) the exergetic cost of CO2 separation from flue gas should be reduced, and/or (2) the capture process should not lead to additional carbon emission. Furthermore, we find that the exergy recovery factor of CO2-EOR depends on the CO2 utilization factor, which is currently in the low range of 2–4 bbl/tCO2 based on the field data. Exergetically, CO2 EOR with storage option produces 30–40% less exergy compared to conventional CO2 enhanced oil recovery projects with CO2 supplied from natural sources; however, this leads to storage of >400 kg of extra CO2 per barrel of oil produced.","Climate change; CO storage; CO utilization factor; CO-EOR; Exergy analysis","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Reservoir Engineering","","",""
"uuid:1640e8c5-5a44-4353-b6cb-2ea85b83a4a8","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:1640e8c5-5a44-4353-b6cb-2ea85b83a4a8","Expected implications of climate change on the corrosion of structures","Sousa, M. L. (European Commission - Joint Research Centre); Dimova, S. (European Commission - Joint Research Centre); Athanasopoulou, A. (European Commission - Joint Research Centre); Rianna, G. (Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici); Mercogliano, P. (Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici); Villani, V. (Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici); Nogal Macho, M. (TU Delft Integral Design & Management); Gervasio, H. (Universidade de Coimbra); Neves, L. (University of Nottingham)","","2020","The report presents the work of the Joint Research Centre (JRC) scientific network on adaptation of structural design to climate change addressing the expected implications of a changing climate on the corrosion of structures.
The work first outlines recent EU policies supporting the sustainability and climate resilience of infrastructure and buildings. It is highlighted how the construction sector is encouraged to adopt more sustainable and circular economic practices, extend the lifetime of buildings and strive for better performance of buildings and infrastructure throughout their life cycle. The ongoing action plan to adapt European standards to a changing climate is emphasised.
The report evaluates the expected variations in climatic factors causing corrosion, provides a state-of-the-art review on climate change induced corrosion of reinforced concrete and steel structures, and presents recent works on the corrosion impact, the costs and effectiveness of adaptation strategies. The effects of corrosion on the seismic performance of structures is addressed as well.
In conclusion, this report presents the scientific and technical background to study the expected implications of climate change on the corrosion of structures. The work intends to stimulate debate on the subject, identify further research needs, and serve as a basis for the development of further work relevant to the adaptation to climate change of European standards and policies.
subsurface of the city can play a central role in this, for instance by using space made available by a different use of infrastructure for the ecological and functional improvement of the city. In order to combine ecosystem services, climate and urban systems in a single design that accounts for the dynamics of the subsurface, it must be seen as an integral element of spatial planning and design. Based on this idea this exploratory research was done into the effect of ‘soil first’ on three urban typologies. What is the design potential of these typologies, assuming a circular construction of the public space and a healthy soil? The result is a six step approach in which the city can become more healthy is regard to global challenges and respecting the soil as main carrier.","subsurface; soil; health; urban; climate change; remediation","en","report","Delft University of Technology","","","","","","","","","","Environmental Technology and Design","","",""
"uuid:1a84adc7-86d4-4ee9-905c-006bd4aabe71","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:1a84adc7-86d4-4ee9-905c-006bd4aabe71","Long-eccentricity regulated climate control on fluvial incision and aggradation in the Palaeocene of north-eastern Montana (USA)","Noorbergen, Lars J. (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Turtu, Antonio (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Kuiper, Klaudia F. (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Kasse, Cornelis (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); van Ginneken, Sverre (Universiteit Utrecht); Dekkers, Mark J. (Universiteit Utrecht); Krijgsman, Wout (Universiteit Utrecht); Abels, H.A. (TU Delft Applied Geology); Hilgen, Frederik J. (Universiteit Utrecht)","","2020","Aggradation and fluvial incision controlled by downstream base-level changes at timescales of 10 to 500 kyr is incorporated in classic sequence stratigraphic models. However, upstream climate control on sediment supply and discharge variability causes fluvial incision and aggradation as well. Orbital forcing often regulates climate change at 10 to 500 kyr timescales while tectonic processes such as flexural (un)loading exert a dominant control at timescales longer than 500 kyr. It remains challenging to attribute fluvial incision and aggradation to upstream or downstream processes or disentangle allogenic from autogenic forcing, because time control is mostly limited in fluvial successions. The Palaeocene outcrops of the fluvial Lebo Shale Member in north-eastern Montana (Williston Basin, USA) constitute an exception. This study uses a distinctive tephra layer and two geomagnetic polarity reversals to create a 15 km long chronostratigraphic framework based on the correlation of twelve sections. Three aggradation–incision sequences are identified with durations of approximately 400 kyr, suggesting a relation with long-eccentricity. This age control further reveals that incision occurred during the approach of – or during – a 405 kyr long-eccentricity minimum. A long-term relaxation of the hydrological cycle related to such an orbital phasing potentially exerts an upstream climate control on river incision. Upstream, an expanding vegetation cover is expected because of an increasingly constant moisture supply to source areas. Entrapping by vegetation led to a significantly reduced sediment supply relative to discharge, especially at times of low evapotranspiration. Hence, high discharges resulted in incision. This study assesses the long-eccentricity regulated climate control on fluvial aggradation and incision in a new aggradation–incision sequence model.","Aggradation; climate change; fluvial stratigraphy; hiatuses; incision; long-eccentricity cycle; magnetostratigraphic correlation; tephrostratigraphic correlation","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Applied Geology","","",""
"uuid:73f6506d-c07e-481a-8f43-735a5ea87a43","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:73f6506d-c07e-481a-8f43-735a5ea87a43","The impacts of climate change on cultural heritage in the Netherlands: A preliminary assessment of exposure","Teruel Cano, D. (TU Delft Water Resources); Fatorić, Sandra (TU Delft History, Form & Aesthetics); Manders, Martijn (Universiteit Leiden)","","2020","Cultural heritage provides a wide range of economic, socio-cultural and environmental benefits for current and future generations. Globally, scientific evidence shows that climate change is adversely affecting diverse tangible and intangible cultural heritage [1; 2]. Yet, in the Netherlands, there is a need for a greater understanding of the cultural heritage vulnerability to climate change hazards. Understanding the vulnerability of cultural heritage to climate change hazards is of paramount importance to inform and guide proactive climate change adaptation planning and to reduce the potential damage or loss of heritage [3; 4; 5].
The aim of this study is to evaluate and visualise the potential exposure of nationally significant cultural heritage (national monuments or Rijksmonumenten) to multiple climate change hazards in the Netherlands. The climate change hazards assessed in this study include coastal and river flooding, urban pluvial flooding, drought and heat. The assessment is presented in a series of tables, graphs and maps for ease of use. Importantly, the presented exposure of monuments to climate change hazards is not a measure of actual risk or impact, but the first scan of different levels of exposure of monuments to climate change hazards using a scientific database of Climate Impact Atlas.","Climate change risks; Exposure assessment; Cultural heritage; Netherlands; Prioritization; Climate change adaptation; National monument; Rijksmonumenten; Klimaatverandering","en","report","Delft University of Technology","","","","","","","","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:7c811a6b-adfb-4a73-9c60-2729b1caa93a","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:7c811a6b-adfb-4a73-9c60-2729b1caa93a","Historic preservation priorities for climate adaptation","Seekamp, Erin (University of North Carolina); Fatorić, Sandra (TU Delft History, Form & Aesthetics); McCreary, Allie (Western Kentucky University)","","2020","Cultural heritage-specific research is scarce within the climate change literature and climate change policy documents, challenging climate adaptation efforts to minimize adverse impacts on cultural heritage. Engaging and assessing diverse stakeholders' values and integrating those with evidence-based knowledge is critical for timely, effective and transparent preservation and climate adaptation of coastal cultural heritage. This study assessed technical experts' and community groups' opinions about the importance of value-based prioritization considerations to provide more immediate guidance adaptation planning and decision making. The findings from four separate elicitation surveys demonstrated substantial consistency in value-based climate adaptation prioritization preferences for one type of vulnerable cultural heritage: historic buildings in coastal zones in the United States. In particular, the samples of cultural heritage professionals and members of community groups consistently rated spatial importance, uniqueness, and scientific value of historic buildings as very important considerations for climate adaptation prioritization decision-making. Also, consistently evaluated but of relatively low importance were considerations related to the cost of preservation and adaptation treatments, including previous investments. Few statistically significant differences were found among our samples in their perceptions of importance. These findings provide initial guidance to cultural heritage managers, particularly those with scarce financial resources to allocate for adapting coastal historic buildings, and demonstrate the need for continued development of approaches that provide rapid assessment of coastal heritage stakeholders' adaptation priorities.","Climate change; Cultural heritage management; Decision-making; Prioritization; Values","en","journal article","","","","","","Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.","","2020-09-30","","","History, Form & Aesthetics","","",""
"uuid:97962ae8-034c-4ce3-b279-4a723c319745","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:97962ae8-034c-4ce3-b279-4a723c319745","Minority Community Resilience and Cultural Heritage Preservation: A Case Study of Gullah Geechee Community","Ghahramani, Ladan (North Carolina State University); McArdle, Katelin (North Carolina State University); Fatorić, Sandra (TU Delft History, Form & Aesthetics)","","2020","The Gullah Geechee community of the south-eastern United States endures today as a minority group with a significant cultural heritage. However, little research has been conducted to explore this community’s resilience in the face of climate change and other environmental impacts. The database Web of Science was searched and 109 publications on the Gullah Geechee community were identified. Using quantitative and qualitative methods, we analyzed the publications to identify patterns and primary research themes related to the Gullah Geechee community’s resilience. Findings revealed that Gullah Geechee‘s cultural heritage is vulnerable to climatic and societal changes, but can also be a source for enhancing community resilience and promoting more sustainable community-led heritage and tourism developments. A framework is proposed for building community resilience in the context of minority and/or marginalized communities (e.g., Gullah Geechee). This study highlights the urgent need to not only better understand and incorporate a community’s economic dimensions and losses in various decision- and policy-making processes but also their cultural and social dimensions and losses. This systematic analysis can help inform both heritage preservation and community-led tourism practices and policies related to the Gullah Geechee community, as well as help direct new research efforts focusing on minority and/or marginalized community resilience.","Climate adaptation planning; Climate change policy; Community-led tourism; Cultural heritage management; Historic preservation; Intangible heritage; Loss and damage; Marginalized group","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","History, Form & Aesthetics","","",""
"uuid:1f3ad987-ea2e-4258-881a-33a217dcffb9","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:1f3ad987-ea2e-4258-881a-33a217dcffb9","Monitoring Climate Change in World Heritage Properties: Evaluating Landscape-Based Approach in the State of Conservation System","Guzman, Paloma (Norwegian Institute for Cultural Heritage Research (NIKU)); Fatorić, Sandra (TU Delft History, Form & Aesthetics); Ishizawa, Maya (University of Tsukuba)","","2020","Climate change is increasingly being recognized as a threat to natural and cultural World Heritage (WH) sites worldwide. Through its interaction with other stressors, climate change accelerates existing risks while also creating new obstacles. A more considerable focus is needed in both research and practice to explore proactive measures for combatting this issue (e.g., mitigation and actions prior to impacts occurring). World Heritage values in climate change decision-making processes is an important factor in this regard. This paper explores a discussion of climate change within the WH monitoring system. It offers an overview of practice based on the extent to which WH properties (natural, mixed and cultural) implement landscape-based approaches alongside the conservation and management of their outstanding universal value within the context of climate uncertainty and environmental change. Landscape approaches are gaining importance in the WH conservation system, where they aim to provide concepts and tools for managing heritage toward sustainable practices. This research analyses the state of conservation reports and provides an overview of practice across time, categories and geographical regions. Based on a theoretical approach, empirical analyses identify four landscape principles that are increasingly shaping the debate around climate change issues in WH properties. Although these are highly relevant to advancing much-needed collaboration among scientific disciplines and governance sectors, we argue that further understanding is required on the transformational process of heritage values, as well as on the nature–culture relationship, in order to underpin heritage as a source for local resilience and climate mitigation.","Climate change; Integrative heritage management; Monitoring; Nature culture divide; State of conservation reports; World heritage: landscape approach","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","History, Form & Aesthetics","","",""
"uuid:e40957d4-374e-437d-a6dc-e16771d66272","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:e40957d4-374e-437d-a6dc-e16771d66272","Realising the potential of cultural heritage to achieve climate change actions in the Netherlands","Fatorić, Sandra (TU Delft History, Form & Aesthetics); Egberts, Linde (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)","","2020","Climate change impacts on diverse cultural heritage is gaining scholarly and policy attention, yet little research has been conducted on how can diverse cultural heritage inform decisionmakers and policymakers in achieving climate change actions (i.e., climate change adaptation and mitigation). For this study, we conducted semi-structured interviews with Dutch cultural heritage and environmental or climate change experts (n = 52) and participant observations across the Netherlands to explore the importance of cultural heritage benefits and their relation to climate change actions. We also explored the perceptions of cultural heritage management over time, including the influence of climate policy on heritage practice in the Netherlands. Our findings show that experts perceived a multiplicity of heritage benefits as important in supporting and informing present and future climate change actions. The most salient benefits were informational benefits where diverse cultural heritage is perceived as an important source of knowledge about past societal, economic and environmental developments and changes. Further, heritage management was perceived as constantly changing over time, reflecting the transformative nature of diverse heritage types. Experts agreed that climate policy has already influenced cultural heritage practice in the Netherlands. Lastly, the interrelationships between heritage benefits and management were identified and characterised. This study informs both cultural heritage and climate change research agendas and helps leverage diverse cultural heritage into climate change adaptation and mitigation policies.","Climate change adaptation; Climate change mitigation; Cultural heritage management; Heritage benefits; Interrelationships","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","History, Form & Aesthetics","","",""
"uuid:e3c648f8-da3d-44eb-941e-a09defd1f234","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:e3c648f8-da3d-44eb-941e-a09defd1f234","Projection and detection of climate change impact on fatigue damage of offshore floating structures operating in three offshore oil fields of the North Sea","Zou, Tao (Jiangsu University of Science and Technology); Kaminski, M.L. (TU Delft Ship Hydromechanics and Structures)","","2020","Fatigue damage of offshore floating structures is a long-term cumulative process, which is mainly attributed to ocean waves. The natural variability and human-induced climate change may affect the wave climate and consequently result in the change of fatigue damage. This paper aims to investigate the effect of climate change on the fatigue damage of offshore floating structures operating in three offshore oil fields of the North Sea (Alma/Galia, Pierce, and Rosebank oil fields, located in 56.2° N/2.8° E, 58° N/1.45° E, and 61° N/4° W latitude/longitude). Then it can detect whether human-induced climate change has a considerable impact on fatigue damage. Therefore, firstly the natural variability of wave height and fatigue damage was investigated through 30-year control simulations by coupling wave models to climate models, ignoring the effect of human activities. After that the sea states and annual fatigue damages were projected in three decadal periods (2011–2020, 2051–2060, and 2091–2100) based on widely recognized climate scenarios including the greenhouse gas emission trajectories. The effect of human-induced climate change has been detected, and it has been found that the higher the emission, the less the fatigue damage in considered floating structures in the North Sea. In addition, although wave height is the dominant wave characteristic in fatigue calculations, the change of other wave characteristics should also be considered to improve the quality of fatigue designs.","Climate change; Climate models; Fatigue damage; Offshore floating structures; Wave models","en","journal article","","","","","","Accepted Author Manuscript","","2021-08-13","","","Ship Hydromechanics and Structures","","",""
"uuid:2680a904-35c2-4768-803e-17ac9e105203","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:2680a904-35c2-4768-803e-17ac9e105203","Adapting cultural heritage to climate change impacts in the Netherlands: barriers, interdependencies, and strategies for overcoming them","Fatorić, Sandra (TU Delft History, Form & Aesthetics); Biesbroek, Robbert (Wageningen University & Research)","","2020","Climate change is currently impacting cultural heritage globally. Despite advances in the understanding of the relationship between climate change impacts and cultural heritage, there are significant barriers that hamper adaptation of cultural heritage to current and projected climate risks. This paper aims to advance the empirical understanding of barriers to adapting cultural heritage to climate-related impacts in the Netherlands by identifying different barriers, their interdependencies, and possible strategies to overcome these barriers. Using a web-based questionnaire with 57 experts, we find that the most frequently reported barriers are a lack of climate change adaptation policy for cultural heritage, and lack of climate vulnerability and risk assessments for diverse cultural heritage types. Our study finds that barriers are perceived to be interdependent and conjointly constrain adapting cultural heritage to climate change. Six actionable strategies are identified to navigate these barriers.","Climate change adaptation; Climate policy; Cultural heritage management; Historic preservation","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","History, Form & Aesthetics","","",""
"uuid:b7f7d3be-d7ed-41b8-8a66-355fdf23dc6a","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:b7f7d3be-d7ed-41b8-8a66-355fdf23dc6a","Gardens of Gelderland: Design Research Explorations into Resilient Estate Landscapes","","Cattoor, B. (editor); de Wit, S.I. (editor); Luiten, E.A.J. (editor); Nijhuis, S. (editor); Peng, Y. (editor)","2020","Report of the MSc Landscape Architecture 2019 - 2020, Graduation Lab Resilient Heritage Landscapes. In this graduation lab landscape architecture students from TU Delft explored the landscape assets of private and dispersed heritage properties and developed design strategies to engage them in future-proof landscape development. The focus of the lab is on the landscape system of castles and historic country estates in Gelderland, a region in the East of the Netherlands, also known as the ‘Garden of Gelderland’. Strategically chosen learning cases are elaborated via research-through-design to explore landscape architecture principles for context-sensitive water management, landscape coherence, ecological development and recreation at multiple scales, as well as their spatial implications.","Heritage landscape; Resilient Heritage; Estate landscape; Water management; Tourism; Estate; Gelderland; Design research; Landscape coherence; Landscape ecology; landscape architectonic approach; Landscape architecture; Climate change","en","book","Delft University of Technology","","","","","Student work MSc Landscape Architecture, TU Delft Graduation Lab Resilient Heritage Landscapes, 2019 - 2020","","","","","Landscape Architecture","","",""
"uuid:1d3919c1-4994-4b5e-99ac-72d4d6452f46","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:1d3919c1-4994-4b5e-99ac-72d4d6452f46","The Drivers of Child Mortality During the 2012–2016 Drought in La Guajira, Colombia","Contreras, Diana (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile; Newcastle University); Voets, Alex (Caritas Switzerland); Junghardt, Jana (Caritas Switzerland); Bhamidipati, S.K. (TU Delft Energie and Industrie); Contreras, Sandra (Pontifical Xavierian University)","","2020","During the 2012–2016 drought in La Guajira, Colombia, child mortality rates rose to 23.4 out of 1000. Most of these children belonged to the Wayuu indigenous community, the largest and one of the most vulnerable in Colombia. At the municipal level, this study found a significant positive correlation between the average child mortality rate and households with a monthly income of less than USD 100, the number of people without access to health insurance, being part of the indigenous population, being illiterate, lacking sewage systems, living in rural areas, and large households with members younger than 5 years old and older than 65 years old. No correlation was found with households without access to a water source. The stepwise regression analysis showed that households with a monthly income of less than USD 100, no members older than 65 years old, but several children younger than 5 years old, account for 90.4% of the child mortality rate. This study concludes that, if inhabitants had had better incomes or assets, as well as an adequate infrastructure, they could have faced the drought without the observed increase in child mortality.","Child mortality; Climate change; Drought; Socioeconomic vulnerability; Water management; Wayuu indigenous community","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Energie and Industrie","","",""
"uuid:288d77e2-2d6f-468a-85d5-b7b1c3529f5f","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:288d77e2-2d6f-468a-85d5-b7b1c3529f5f","Decline in terrestrial moisture sources of the mississippi river basin in a future climate","Benedict, Imme (Wageningen University & Research); Van Heerwaarden, Chiel C. (Wageningen University & Research); van der Ent, R.J. (TU Delft Water Resources; Universiteit Utrecht); Weerts, Albrecht H. (Deltares; Wageningen University & Research); Hazeleger, Wilco (Wageningen University & Research; Universiteit Utrecht)","","2020","Assessment of the impact of climate change on water resources over land requires knowledge on the origin of the precipitation and changes therein toward the future. We determine the origin of precipitation over the Mississippi River basin (MRB) using high-resolution (~25 km) climate model simulations for present and future climate (RCP4.5). Moisture resulting in precipitation over the MRB is tracked back in time using Eulerian offline moisture tracking, in order to find out from where this water originally evaporated (i.e., the moisture sources). We find that the most important continental moisture sources are the MRB itself and the area southwest of the basin. The two most relevant oceanic sources are the Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean and the Pacific. The distribution of sources varies per season, with more recycling of moisture within the basin during summer and more transport of moisture from the ocean toward the basin in winter. In future winters, we find an increase in moisture source from the oceans (related to higher sea surface temperatures), resulting in more precipitation over the MRB. In future summers, we find an approximately 5% decrease in moisture source from the basin itself, while the decrease in precipitation is smaller (i.e., lower recycling ratios). The results here are based on one climate model, and we do not study low-frequency climate variability. We conclude that Mis-sissippi’s moisture sources will become less local in a future climate, with more water originating from the oceans.","North America; Climate change; Hydrologic cycle; General circulation models","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:ba87a8d8-cf97-4f6b-b045-d304a438053e","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:ba87a8d8-cf97-4f6b-b045-d304a438053e","Drinking water temperature around the globe: Understanding, policies, challenges and opportunities","Agudelo-Vera, Claudia (KWR Water Research Institute); Avvedimento, Stefania (Pavia University); Boxall, Joby (University of Sheffield); Creaco, Enrico (Pavia University); de Kater, Henk (EVIDES Water utility); Nardo, Armando Di (Università degli Studi della Campania “Luigi Vanvitelli”); Djukic, Aleksandar (University of Belgrade); Kapelan, Z. (TU Delft Sanitary Engineering; University of Exeter); Blokker, E.J.M. (TU Delft Sanitary Engineering; KWR Water Research Institute)","","2020","Water temperature is often monitored at water sources and treatment works; however, there is limited monitoring of the water temperature in the drinking water distribution system (DWDS), despite a known impact on physical, chemical and microbial reactions which impact water quality. A key parameter influencing drinking water temperature is soil temperature, which is influenced by the urban heat island effects. This paper provides critique and comprehensive summary of the current knowledge, policies and challenges regarding drinking water temperature research and presents the findings from a survey of international stakeholders. Knowledge gaps as well as challenges and opportunities for monitoring and research are identified. The conclusion of the study is that temperature in the DWDS is an emerging concern in various countries regardless of the water source and treatment, climate conditions, or network characteristics such as topology, pipe material or diameter. More research is needed, especially to determine (i) the effect of higher temperatures, (ii) a legislative limit on temperature and (iii) measures to comply with this limit.","Climate change; Shallow underground; Subsurface urban heat island; Tap water temperature; Underground hotspots; Water quality and safety","en","review","","","","","","","","","","","Sanitary Engineering","","",""
"uuid:d51c0dd9-8922-483b-87fc-b78b6192201b","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d51c0dd9-8922-483b-87fc-b78b6192201b","A Novel Idea for Groundwater Resource Management during Megadrought Events","Mianabadi, Ameneh (Ferdowsi University of Mashhad); Derakhshan, Hashem (Ferdowsi University of Mashhad); Davary, Kamran (Ferdowsi University of Mashhad); Hasheminia, Seyed Majid (Ferdowsi University of Mashhad); Hrachowitz, M. (TU Delft Water Resources)","","2020","Due to the effects of global climate change on duration, frequency and number of drought events, the occurrence of prolonged droughts, referred to as “megadroughts” (lasting for two decades or longer) will become more probable in the future. Thus, it is crucial for countries especially in arid and semi-arid regions of the world to develop appropriate preparedness plans for megadrought risk management. Since groundwater is the key water resource in these regions, it is important to reliably quantify the maximum sustainable extraction to ensure a sufficient groundwater reserve, i.e. the Strategic Groundwater Reserve, for a probable future megadrought event. For this purpose, a new concept of Probable Maximum Drought is proposed in this study, based on the concept of Probable Maximum Flood. As the spillways of large dams are designed based on the Probable Maximum Flood to minimize the probability of failure and the associated casualties and damages, the Probable Maximum Drought concept is proposed to estimate Strategic Groundwater Reserves to limit the consequences of prolonged droughts, including damage and threats to societal stability. This will allow water resources managers and policymakers to develop appropriate strategies to adapt and restrict development plans of a given region based on a sustainable megadrought risk management.","Climate change; Probable maximum drought; Strategic groundwater reserve; Sustainable water resources management","en","journal article","","","","","","Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public. Corrigendum published on DOI: 10.1007/s11269-020-02686-2","","2020-09-27","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:73235891-1b9b-40c6-ba70-9b7c7a712023","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:73235891-1b9b-40c6-ba70-9b7c7a712023","A High-Resolution Global Dataset of Extreme Sea Levels, Tides, and Storm Surges, Including Future Projections","Muis, Sanne (Deltares; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Apecechea, Maialen Irazoqui (Deltares); Dullaart, Job (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); de Lima Rego, Joao (Deltares); Madsen, Kristine Skovgaard (Danish Meteorological Institute); Su, Jian (Danish Meteorological Institute); Yan, Kun (Deltares); Verlaan, M. (TU Delft Mathematical Physics; Deltares)","","2020","The world’s coastal areas are increasingly at risk of coastal flooding due to sea-level rise (SLR). We present a novel global dataset of extreme sea levels, the Coastal Dataset for the Evaluation of Climate Impact (CoDEC), which can be used to accurately map the impact of climate change on coastal regions around the world. The third generation Global Tide and Surge Model (GTSM), with a coastal resolution of 2.5 km (1.25 km in Europe), was used to simulate extreme sea levels for the ERA5 climate reanalysis from 1979 to 2017, as well as for future climate scenarios from 2040 to 2100. The validation against observed sea levels demonstrated a good performance, and the annual maxima had a mean bias (MB) of -0.04 m, which is 50% lower than the MB of the previous GTSR dataset. By the end of the century (2071–2100), it is projected that the 1 in 10-year water levels will have increased 0.34 m on average for RCP4.5, while some locations may experience increases of up to 0.5 m. The change in return levels is largely driven by SLR, although at some locations changes in storms surges and interaction with tides amplify the impact of SLR with changes up to 0.2 m. By presenting an application of the CoDEC dataset to the city of Copenhagen, we demonstrate how climate impact indicators derived from simulation can contribute to an understanding of climate impact on a local scale. Moreover, the CoDEC output locations are designed to be used as boundary conditions for regional models, and we envisage that they will be used for dynamic downscaling.","climate change; coastal flooding; extreme sea levels; global model; sea-level rise","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Mathematical Physics","","",""
"uuid:1e2dc3b5-dca1-4473-9595-66ee7e7571b9","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:1e2dc3b5-dca1-4473-9595-66ee7e7571b9","Hard or soft flood adaptation? Advantages of a hybrid strategy for Shanghai","Du, Shiqiang (Shanghai Normal University; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Scussolini, Paolo (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Ward, Philip J. (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Zhang, Min (Shanghai Normal University); Wen, Jiahong (Shanghai Normal University); Wang, Luyang (Shanghai Normal University); Koks, Elco (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Diaz-Loaiza, Andres (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Gao, Jun (Shanghai Normal University); Ke, Q. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk); Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H. (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)","","2020","Flood risk is expected to increase in coastal cities, particularly in Asian megacities such as Shanghai. This paper presents an integrated modeling framework to simulate changes in the flood risk in Shanghai and provide a cost-benefit analysis of multiple adaptation strategies used to reduce risk. The results show that the potential flood risk will increase dramatically as a result of sea level rise, land subsidence, and socioeconomic development. By 2100, the expected annual damage could reach 0.8% (uncertainty range: 0.4%–1.4%) of local GDP under an optimistic emission scenario (RCP4.5), compared to the current value of 0.03%. All of the adaptation strategies can effectively reduce the flood risk under the current conditions and those in 2050. In contrast to the ‘hard’ flood protection strategies (i.e., storm-surge barriers and floodwalls), the ‘soft’ strategies (i.e., building codes and nature-based measures) cannot substantially reduce the flood risk in 2100. However, the soft strategies can play a critical role in reducing the residual risk resulting from the hard strategies. A ‘hybrid’ strategy combining a storm-surge barrier, wet-proofing, and coastal wetland development outperforms both hard and soft strategies in terms of low residual risk and high benefit/cost ratio. Additionally, the hybrid strategy can also enable a larger reduction in casualties. These findings imply that managing flood risk is more than the use of single adaptation measures. The methodology developed in this paper can enlighten Shanghai and other coastal cities on an economically and socially feasible adaptation strategy in an uncertain future.","Climate change; Coastal flood; Cost-benefit analysis; Nonstationarity; Risk management","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk","","",""
"uuid:6594a476-7b65-416b-abfe-27ffda4e2354","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:6594a476-7b65-416b-abfe-27ffda4e2354","On the Imbalance and Response Time of Glaciers in the European Alps","Zekollari, H. (TU Delft Mathematical Geodesy and Positioning; ETH Zürich; Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research; Vrije Universiteit Brussel); Huss, Matthias (ETH Zürich; University of Fribourg; Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research); Farinotti, Daniel (ETH Zürich; Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research)","","2020","Glaciers in the European Alps rapidly lose mass to adapt to changes in climate conditions. Here, we investigate the relationship and lag between climate forcing and geometric glacier response with a regional glacier evolution model accounting for ice dynamics. The volume loss occurring as a result of the glacier-climate imbalance increased over the early 21st century, from about 35% in 2001 to 44% in 2010. This committed loss reduced to ~40% by 2018, indicating that temperature increase was outweighing glacier retreat in the early 2000s but that the fast retreat effectively somewhat diminished glacier imbalances. We analyze the lag in glacier response for each individual glacier and find mean response times of 50 ± 28 years. Our findings indicate that the response time is primarily controlled by glacier slope and secondarily by elevation range and mass balance gradient, rather than by glacier size.","alps; climate change; dynamics; glacier; response time","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Mathematical Geodesy and Positioning","","",""
"uuid:dce4748c-e881-4512-b224-ec934795f250","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:dce4748c-e881-4512-b224-ec934795f250","Identifying how future climate and land use/cover changes impact streamflow in Xinanjiang Basin, East China","Guo, Yuxue (Zhejiang University); Fang, Guohua (Hohai University); Xu, Yue Ping (Zhejiang University); Tian, X. (TU Delft Water Resources); Xie, Jingkai (Zhejiang University)","","2020","Climate and land use/cover changes are the main factors altering hydrological regimes. To understand the impacts of climate and land use/cover changes on streamflow within a specific catchment, it is essential to accurately quantify their changes given many possibilities. We propose an integrated framework to assess how individual and combined climate and land use/cover changes impact the streamflow of Xinanjiang Basin, in East China, in the future. Five bias-corrected and downscaled General Circulation Model (GCM) projections are used to indicate the inter-model uncertainties under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Additionally, three land use/cover change scenarios representing a range of tradeoffs between ecological protection (EP) and urban development (UD) are projected by Cellular Automata - Markov (CA-Markov). The streamflow in 2021–2050 is then assessed using the calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with 15 scenarios and 75 possibilities. Finally, the uncertainty and attribution of streamflow changes to climate and land use/cover changes at monthly and annual scale are analyzed. Results show that while both land use/cover change alone and combined changes project an increase in streamflow, there is a disagreement on the direction of streamflow change under climate change alone. Future streamflow may undergo a more blurred boundary between the flood and non-flood seasons, potentially easing the operation stress of Xinanjiang Reservoir for water supply or hydropower generation. We find that the impacts of climate and land use/cover changes on monthly mean streamflow are sensitive to the impermeable area (IA). The impacts of climate change are stronger than those induced by land use/cover change under EP (i.e., lower IA); and land use/cover change has a greater impact in case of UD (i.e., higher IA). However, changes in annual mean streamflow are mainly driven by land use/cover change, and climate change may decrease the influence attributed to land use/cover change.","Attribution; Climate change; Land use/cover change; Multiple scenarios; Streamflow response; Uncertainty","en","journal article","","","","","","Accepted Author Manuscript","","2022-01-07","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:9ce542e1-b79e-435a-b964-ce87290c5e50","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:9ce542e1-b79e-435a-b964-ce87290c5e50","Addressing the challenges of climate change risks and adaptation in coastal areas: A review","Toimil, Alexandra (University of Cantabria); Losada, Iñigo J. (University of Cantabria); Nicholls, Robert J. (University of Southampton); Dalrymple, Robert A. (Northwestern University); Stive, M.J.F. (TU Delft Coastal Engineering)","","2020","Climate change is and will continue altering the world's coasts, which are the most densely populated and economically active areas on earth and home for highly valuable ecosystems. While there is considerable relevant research, in the authors' experience this problem remains challenging for coastal engineering. This paper reviews important challenges in this respect and identifies three key actions to address them: (a) refocusing traditional practice towards more climate-aware approaches; (b) developing more comprehensive risk frameworks that include the multi-dimensionality and non-stationarity of their components and consideration of uncertainty; and (c) building bridges between risk assessment and adaptation theory and practice. We conclude that the way forward includes numerous activities including increased observations; the attribution of coastal impacts to their drivers; enhanced climate projections and their integration into impact models; more impact assessments at the local scale; dynamic projections of spatially-distributed exposure and vulnerability; and the exploration of inherently adaptive options. Given the complexity of the possible solutions, more practical guidance is required.","Adaptation; Climate change; Coastal engineering; Non-stationarity; Risk; Uncertainty","en","review","","","","","","Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.","","2020-05-25","","","Coastal Engineering","","",""
"uuid:12e60723-35f3-40be-af0a-191616ab2454","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:12e60723-35f3-40be-af0a-191616ab2454","Assessment of the functional performance of lowland river systems subjected to climate change and large-scale morphological trends","Hiemstra, K.S. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk); van Vuren, S. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk; Rijkswaterstaat); Vinke, Frederik R.S. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering); Jorissen, Richard E. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk; Rijkswaterstaat); Kok, M. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk; HKV Consultants)","","2020","Worldwide, rivers provide important socio-economic and environmental functions and are essential to human well-being. The growing demand of user-functions and the change in river conditions due to large-scale morphology and climate change, increase the pressure on lowland river systems (e.g. Rhine, Meuse, Danube and Mississippi). To ensure a multi-functional river system, challenges related to uncertain exogenous trends should be tackled. This asks for an integrated approach that accounts for large-scale system behaviour rather than a sectorial approach. This paper proposes a framework that provides support to the river management decision-making process by assessing policy-options against uncertain exogenous processes based on the quantified performance of river functions. Hence, a case study of the Dutch Rhine was carried out, proposing a set of models to simulate river conditions and quantify the performance of the river functions navigation, nature and flood protection. The framework quantifies and monetized the impact of climate change and morphology on the user-functions in 2050. The application of the framework reveals a reduction of shipping efficiency, reduction of floodplain inundation and an increase in flood level. The monetization of river functions allowed an optimization of the policy-options, while dealing with uncertain processes as climate change and morphological changes. We demonstrated the merits of the assessment framework with a case study for the Dutch Rhine, as it provides useful quantitative information to support to decision-making in integrated river management.","Climate change; integrated river management; river morphodynamics; river’s functional performance","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk","","",""
"uuid:d823c67e-e6b8-45b4-9ecc-7608c1d54457","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d823c67e-e6b8-45b4-9ecc-7608c1d54457","Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions: The Road to “Hothouse Earth” is Paved with Good Intentions","Schröder, E. (TU Delft Economics of Technology and Innovation); Storm, S.T.H. (TU Delft Economics of Technology and Innovation)","","2020","De-carbonization to restrict future global warming to 1.5 °C is technically feasible but may impose a “limit” or “planetary boundary” to economic growth, depending on whether or not human society can decouple growth from emissions. In this paper, we assess the viability of decoupling. First, we develop a prognosis of climate-constrained global growth for 2014–2050 using the transparent Kaya identity. Second, we use the Carbon-Kuznets-Curve framework to assess the effect of economic growth on emissions using measures of territorial and consumption-based emissions. We run fixed-effects regressions using OECD data for 58 countries during 2007–2015 and source alternative emissions data starting in 1992 from two other databases. While there is weak evidence suggesting a decoupling of emissions and growth at high-income levels, the main estimation sample indicates that emissions are monotonically increasing with per-capita GDP. We draw out the implications for climate policy and binding emission reduction obligations.","Carbon-Kuznets-Curve; climate change; consumption-based CO emissions; decoupling; economic growth; F64; Paris agreement; Q54; Q55; Q56","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Economics of Technology and Innovation","","",""
"uuid:932935d5-7dea-4b75-8e57-59a603ffb833","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:932935d5-7dea-4b75-8e57-59a603ffb833","Incorporating stakeholders’ preferences into a multi-criteria framework for planning large-scale Nature-Based Solutions","Ruangpan, L. (TU Delft Water Resources; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education); Vojinovic, Zoran (IHE Delft Institute for Water Education; University of Belgrade; National Cheng Kung University; University of Exeter); Plavšić, Jasna (University of Belgrade); Doong, Dong Jiing (National Cheng Kung University); Bahlmann, Tobias (Avans Hogeschool Breda); Alves, Alida (IHE Delft Institute for Water Education); Tseng, L.H. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education); Randelović, Anja (University of Belgrade); Franca, M.J. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education)","","2020","Hydro-meteorological risks are a growing issue for societies, economies and environments around the world. An effective, sustainable response to such risks and their future uncertainty requires a paradigm shift in our research and practical efforts. In this respect, Nature-Based Solutions (NBSs) offer the potential to achieve a more effective and flexible response to hydro-meteorological risks while also enhancing human well-being and biodiversity. The present paper describes a new methodology that incorporates stakeholders’ preferences into a multi-criteria analysis framework, as part of a tool for selecting risk mitigation measures. The methodology has been applied to Tamnava river basin in Serbia and Nangang river basin in Taiwan within the EC-funded RECONECT project. The results highlight the importance of involving stakeholders in the early stages of projects in order to achieve successful implementation of NBSs. The methodology can assist decision-makers in formulating desirable benefits and co-benefits and can enable a systematic and transparent NBSs planning process.","Climate change mitigation; Flood risk reduction; Multi-criteria analysis; Nature-Based Solutions; River basin","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:ea994dae-eb5c-4069-bb12-5d6e0df78fde","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:ea994dae-eb5c-4069-bb12-5d6e0df78fde","Adaptive asset management for flood protection: The FAIR framework in action","Vonk, Bart (Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment); Klerk, W.J. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk; Deltares); Fröhle, Peter (Hamburg University of Technology); Gersonius, Berry (ResilienServices); Heijer, Frank Den (Deltares; HAN University of Applied Sciences); Jordan, Philipp (Hamburg University of Technology); Ciocan, Ulf Radu (Danish Coastal Authority); Rijke, Jeroen (HAN University of Applied Sciences); Sayers, Paul (Sayers and Partners LLP); Ashley, Richard (EcoFutures Ltd.)","","2020","Uncertainties about climate change consequences, changing societal requirements and system complexity require flood protection asset managers to continuously evaluate their asset management policies and practice to manage risk and improve the resilience of their assets. However, there are many challenges in doing this, with asset operators often facing conflicting interests and major uncertainties about the future needs for asset performance. In the EU Interreg IV FAIR project, flood protection asset owners and operators, with scientific partners from the North Sea Region of Europe collaborated to develop practical guidance for adaptive asset management of flood protection infrastructure. The central component of this guidance is the FAIR framework, presented here. The framework combines insights and principles from ISO 55000 on asset management and ISO 14090 on climate adaptation with asset operator experiences to provide a practical guide for integration of asset management considerations within both strategic and operational contexts via a tactical handshake. This is a means to avoid the common lack of connection between strategic plans and operational practice. The applicability of the framework is illustrated with examples from Pilot Cases within the FAIR project, in which its value in terms of improved asset management and reduced costs has been demonstrated.","Asset management; Climate change adaptation; Flood risk; Operation; Prioritization; Strategy","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk","","",""
"uuid:79f31d2f-29f5-4709-a317-3c4a6d9402ea","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:79f31d2f-29f5-4709-a317-3c4a6d9402ea","Domestic water supply vulnerability to climate change and the role of alternative water sources in Kingston, Jamaica","Townsend, Danneille A. (IHE Delft Institute for Water Education); Sušnik, Janez (IHE Delft Institute for Water Education); van der Zaag, P. (TU Delft Water Resources; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education)","","2020","Globally, freshwater resources are threatened, resulting in challenges for urban water supply and management. Climate change, population growth, and urbanization have only exacerbated this crisis. For the Caribbean, climate change through the impact of increasing temperatures and rainfall variability has resulted in more frequent and intense episodes of disasters including droughts and floods which have impaired the quantity and quality of freshwater supplies. Using Caribbean-specific climate forecasting, it is shown that rainfall totals in Kingston, Jamaica, are expected to reduce by 2030 and 2050 under two RCPs. In addition, the timing of the primary rainy season is expected to shift, potentially impacting water supply security. Analysis of the potential of rainwater harvesting (RWH) to augment supply and enhance water supply resilience shows that in two communities studied in Kingston, it can contribute up to 7% of total water supply. Household storage requirements are about 1 m3 per household, which is feasible. RWH offers the potential to contribute to climate change adaptation and mitigation measures at a household level. Policy, incentives, and increased awareness about the potential of RWH to meet non-potable household demand in Kingston must be improved, as well as efforts to reduce the currently unreasonably high levels of non-revenue water in order to move towards an integrated, sustainable, and climate-resilient urban water supply strategy for the city.","Alternative water supply; Climate change; Domestic water supply; Rainwater harvesting; Sustainability; Vulnerability","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:5a26def2-9b79-4ea2-bf44-241fb4f3108a","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:5a26def2-9b79-4ea2-bf44-241fb4f3108a","Accelerated Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss Under High Greenhouse Gas Forcing as Simulated by the Coupled CESM2.1-CISM2.1","Muntjewerf, L. (TU Delft Physical and Space Geodesy); Sellevold, R. (TU Delft Physical and Space Geodesy); Vizcaino, M. (TU Delft Physical and Space Geodesy); Ernani da Silva, C. (TU Delft Physical and Space Geodesy); Petrini, M. (TU Delft Physical and Space Geodesy); Thayer-Calder, Katherine (National Center for Atmospheric Research); Scherrenberg, Meike D.W. (Student TU Delft); Bradley, S.L. (University of Sheffield); Katsman, C.A. (TU Delft Environmental Fluid Mechanics); Fyke, Jeremy (Associated Engineering Group Ltd.); Lipscomb, William H. (National Center for Atmospheric Research); Lofverstrom, Marcus (University of Arizona); Sacks, William J. (National Center for Atmospheric Research)","","2020","The Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is now losing mass at a rate of 0.7 mm of sea level rise (SLR) per year. Here we explore future GrIS evolution and interactions with global and regional climate under high greenhouse gas forcing with the Community Earth System Model version 2.1 (CESM2.1), which includes an interactive ice sheet component (the Community Ice Sheet Model v2.1 [CISM2.1]) and an advanced energy balance-based calculation of surface melt. We run an idealized 350-year scenario in which atmospheric CO2 concentration increases by 1% annually until reaching four times pre-industrial values at year 140, after which it is held fixed. The global mean temperature increases by 5.2 and 8.5 K by years 131–150 and 331–350, respectively. The projected GrIS contribution to global mean SLR is 107 mm by year 150 and 1,140 mm by year 350. The rate of SLR increases from 2 mm yr−1 at year 150 to almost 7 mm yr−1 by year 350. The accelerated mass loss is caused by rapidly increasing surface melt as the ablation area expands, with associated albedo feedback and increased sensible and latent heat fluxes. This acceleration occurs for a global warming of approximately 4.2 K with respect to pre-industrial and is in part explained by the quasi-parabolic shape of the ice sheet, which favors rapid expansion of the ablation area as it approaches the interior “plateau.”.","anthropogenic climate change; Greenland ice sheet; sea level rise; surface mass balance","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Physical and Space Geodesy","","",""
"uuid:ab8f569c-3d3b-40ee-a3a7-97e8c34ac1c1","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:ab8f569c-3d3b-40ee-a3a7-97e8c34ac1c1","A Bayesian stochastic generator to complement existing climate change scenarios: Supporting uncertainty quantification in marine and coastal ecosystems","Mészáros, L. (TU Delft Statistics; Deltares); van der Meulen, F.H. (TU Delft Statistics); Jongbloed, G. (TU Delft Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics); El Serafy, G.Y.H. (TU Delft Mathematical Physics; Deltares)","","2020","Available climate change projections, which can be used for quantifying future changes in marine and coastal ecosystems, usually consist of a few scenarios. Studies addressing ecological impacts of climate change often make use of a low- (RCP2.6), moderate- (RCP4.5) or high climate scenario (RCP8.5), without taking into account further uncertainties in these scenarios. In this research a methodology is proposed to generate further synthetic scenarios, based on existing datasets, for a better representation of climate change induced uncertainties. The methodology builds on Regional Climate Model scenarios provided by the EURO-CORDEX experiment. In order to generate new realizations of climate variables, such as radiation or temperature, a hierarchical Bayesian model is developed. In addition, a parameterized time series model is introduced, which includes a linear trend component, a seasonal shape with varying amplitude and time shift, and an additive residual term. The seasonal shape is derived with the non-parametric locally weighted scatterplot smoothing, and the residual term includes the smoothed variance of residuals and independent and identically distributed noise. The distributions of the time series model parameters are estimated through Bayesian parameter inference with Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling (Gibbs sampler). By sampling from the predictive distribution numerous new statistically representative synthetic scenarios can be generated including uncertainty estimates. As a demonstration case, utilizing these generated synthetic scenarios and a physically based ecological model (Delft3D-WAQ) that relates climate variables to ecosystem variables, a probabilistic simulation is conducted to further propagate the climate change induced uncertainties to marine and coastal ecosystem indicators.","Bayesian inference; Climate change; Coastal ecosystems; Hierarchical models; Uncertainty quantification","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Statistics","","",""
"uuid:cce282c8-76f5-4176-926f-617b85b65a68","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:cce282c8-76f5-4176-926f-617b85b65a68","Marginal climate and air quality costs of aviation emissions","Grobler, Carla (Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Wolfe, Philip J. (Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Dasadhikari, Kingshuk (Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Dedoussi, I.C. (TU Delft Aircraft Noise and Climate Effects; Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Allroggen, Florian (Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Speth, Raymond L. (Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Eastham, Sebastian D. (Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Agarwal, Akshat (Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Staples, Mark D. (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)","","2019","Aviation emissions have been found to cause5%of global anthropogenic radiative forcing and ∼16 000 premature deaths annually due to impaired air quality. When aiming to reduce these impacts, decision makers often face trade-offs between different emission species or impacts in different times and locations. To inform rational decision-making, this study computes aviation’s marginal climate and air quality impacts per tonne of species emitted and accounts for the altitude, location, and chemical composition of emissions. Climate impacts are calculated using a reduced-order climate model, and air quality-related health impacts are quantified using marginal atmospheric sensitivities to emissions from the adjoint of the global chemistry-transport model GEOS-Chem in combination with concentration response functions and the value of statistical life. The results indicate that 90% of the global impacts per unit of fuel burn are attributable to cruise emissions, and that 64% of all damages are the result of air quality impacts. Furthermore, nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon dioxide (CO2), and contrails are collectively responsible for 97% of the total impact. Applying our result metrics to an example, we find that a 20%NOx stringency scenario for new aircraft would reduce the net atmospheric impacts by 700mUSD during the first year of operation, even if theNOx emission reductions cause a small increase inCO2 emissions of 2%. In such a way, the damage metrics can be used to rapidly evaluate the atmospheric impacts of market growth as well as emissions trade-offs of aviation-related policies or technology improvements.","air quality; aviation; climate change","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Aircraft Noise and Climate Effects","","",""
"uuid:24489ee1-0ae3-48de-ace3-9b1414bc47e1","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:24489ee1-0ae3-48de-ace3-9b1414bc47e1","Sustainable production of hydrocarbon fields guided by full-cycle exergy analysis","Farajzadeh, R. (TU Delft Reservoir Engineering)","","2019","To mitigate the negative impacts of hydrocarbon fuels on climate change complementary decision tools should be considered when selecting or evaluating the performance of a certain production scheme. The exergy analysis can give valuable information on the management of the oil and gas reservoirs. It can also be used to calculate the CO2 footprint of the different oil recovery mechanisms. We contend that the concept of exergy recovery factor can be used as a powerful sustainability indicator in the production of the hydrocarbon fields. The exergy-zero recovery factor is determined by considering exergy balance of full cycle of hydrocarbon-production systems and defines boundaries beyond which production of hydrocarbons is no longer sustainable. An example of the exergy analysis is presented in the paper.","Carbon dioxide; Carbon neutral hydrocarbon fuels; Climate change; Exergy analysis; Life-cycle assessment","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Reservoir Engineering","","",""
"uuid:008b44a0-d52c-40db-8fad-8d5a6a5ae1dc","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:008b44a0-d52c-40db-8fad-8d5a6a5ae1dc","Institutional Change through Social Learning: Climate Change Policy Gaming in Kenya","Onencan, A.M. (TU Delft Policy Analysis)","van de Walle, B.A. (promotor); Enserink, B. (promotor); Kortmann, Rens (copromotor); Delft University of Technology (degree granting institution)","2019","Complex and uncertain societal problems cannot be addressed by technical solutions that rely solely on predictions. Institutions that entirely rely on predictions, repeat the same actions (routine), with little reflection on the impact of these technological solutions upon the socio-technical system. Though routine is beneficial for stability and continuity of any institution, it may stifle reflection and make it harder for change. When an institution does not change, it cannot innovate nor adapt to changing circumstances.
Social learning (SL) has been proposed to facilitate institutional change. SL is a change in societal understanding, achieved through social interactions, which eventually gets situated within broader social networks. In principle, SL holds a promise in addressing the problem of routinised, non-adaptive institutions. Nevertheless, there is limited evidence on whether SL does indeed lead to institutional change.
This PhD research uses policy gaming to assess whether SL can lead to institutional change in the Nzoia River Basin. The results indicate that SL has the potential to change routine-based institutions and generate adaptive capacity. The outcomes also indicate the need for the following profound institutional changes in Nzoia River Basin:
Artefacts: Replace current WRM structures with configurations that respect the river, and support the sustainable management of the drainage basin, as a whole.
Values: Value water more than spatial, agricultural and energy-production plans and make water the structuring element within the Nzoia River Basin. This means that any proposed laws, regulations, practices and norms that intend to utilise the scarce water resources unsustainably should not be supported.
Underlying Assumptions: Question underlying assumptions, and make transformations to existing laws, regulations, values, norms and actor-networks to build adaptive capacity.","Water Governance; Social learning; Institutional change; Team interdependence; Climate change adaptation; Policy Gaming; Situation awareness; Diversity; Cooperation; Trust; Cognitive learning; Relational learning; Epistemic learning; Nzoia River Basin; Water resources management","en","doctoral thesis","","978-94-6366-178-2","","","","","","2019-12-26","","","Policy Analysis","","",""
"uuid:d85f7d7c-71e5-4b99-b7fc-750255356961","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d85f7d7c-71e5-4b99-b7fc-750255356961","Conference Report: 2019 International Conference Water as Heritage","Mager, Tino (TU Delft History, Form & Aesthetics)","","2019","The 2019 International Conference ""Water as Heritage"" took place 27-31 May 2019 in Chiayi, Taiwan. Organized by the Taiwan International Institute for Water Education, the International Council on Monuments and Sites (ICOMOS) Netherlands and the Leiden-Delft-Erasmus Centre for Global Heritage and Development, it brought together key water-focused organizations and heritage groups with a concern for water-related heritage in order to develop networks and build working relationships across the diversity of sectors and disciplinary fields. With participants from 25 countries and six continents, the conference explored the mutual benefits arising from such collaborative efforts. A key issue of the conference was the consideration of water-related heritage as an essential element in addressing current and future challenges of water management.","water heritage; sustainability; heritage for the future; climate change; waterscapes; waterways; hydropower","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","History, Form & Aesthetics","","",""
"uuid:190771f7-5a32-4907-b37b-615b763a15b8","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:190771f7-5a32-4907-b37b-615b763a15b8","Sanitary systems: Challenges for innovation","Eijlander, Sabine (The Hague University of Applied Sciences); Mulder, K.F. (TU Delft Organisation & Governance; The Hague University of Applied Sciences)","","2019","Global society is confronted with various challenges: climate change should be mitigated, and society should adapt to the impacts of climate change, resources will become scarcer and hence resources should be used more efficiently and recovered after use, the growing world population and its growing wealth create unprecedented emissions of pollutants, threatening public health, wildlife and biodiversity. This paper provides an overview of the challenges and risks for sewage systems, next to some opportunities and chances that these developments pose. Some of the challenges are emerging from climate change and resource scarcity, others come from the challenges emerging from stricter regulation of emissions. It also presents risks and threats from within the system, next to external influences which may affect the surroundings of the sewage systems. It finally reflects on barriers to respond to these challenges.","Climate change adaptation and mitigation; Emissions; Load factor; Lock in; Modern sanitary systems; Resource recovery; Sewage effluents","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Organisation & Governance","","",""
"uuid:25b3b1ab-2bb2-46d9-80da-c6a72333c052","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:25b3b1ab-2bb2-46d9-80da-c6a72333c052","Towards zero CO2-, NOX- and PM10-emissions by passenger cars: Technology & Behaviour","Vleugel, J (TU Delft Transport and Planning); Bal, Frans (RISSK)","","2019","Modern societies rely on mass mobility, in particular by private car. Car numbers are growing worldwide due to economic and other factors. Nearly, all have engines that run on fossil fuels. Use of fossil fuels contributes to climate change (via CO 2-emissions) and local air pollution (primary NO x- and PM 10-emissions). Both have profound environmental and health implications. The paper explores the technical and behavioural feasibility of zero-emission private car use in The Netherlands in 2030. Base year is 2010. The following research questions are addressed: 1. How much CO 2, NO x and PM 10 did passenger cars emit in 2010? 2. How much will this be in 2030? 3. What would these figures be if electric cars become mainstream in 2030? 4. What would the impact be of sustained urbanization on these emissions? 5. How would a greener power mix in electric power plants affect the emissions of CO 2, NO x and PM 10 by electric cars? A simulation model was used to quantify a rich set of scenarios. Many car manufacturers aim to produce more (fully) electric vehicles (FEVs) in the coming years. More FEV translates into less (growth in) consumption of fossil fuels and emissions. The remaining emissions are still on the high side. Urbanization may support a further reduction. It reduces car ownership and use and thereby the growth in car kilometres, fossil fuel consumption and emissions. Growing production of renewable energy gradually makes the power mix greener. The most extreme combination of scenarios enables society to reduce CO 2-emissions far beyond the −50% target in 2030 for the assumed car mobility scenario. The feasibility of this outcome is rather uncertain. An extension of decades of neoliberal, market-first transport policy would very likely slow down the pace of the transition.","Air pollution; behaviour; car technology; Car use; Climate change; simulation; 2030","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Transport and Planning","","",""
"uuid:cd73dca3-93e2-4275-a97a-3af1212c86bf","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:cd73dca3-93e2-4275-a97a-3af1212c86bf","Rising temperatures increase importance of oceanic evaporation as a source for continental precipitation","Findell, Kirsten L. (Princeton University); Keys, Patrick W. (Colorado State University); van der Ent, R.J. (TU Delft Water Resources; Universiteit Utrecht); Lintner, Benjamin R. (Rutgers University–New Brunswick); Berg, Alexis (Princeton University); Krasting, John P. (Princeton University)","","2019","Understanding vulnerabilities of continental precipitation to changing climatic conditions is of critical importance to society at large. Terrestrial precipitation is fed by moisture originating as evaporation from oceans and from recycling of water evaporated from continental sources. In this study, continental precipitation and evaporation recycling processes in the Earth system model GFDL-ESM2G are shown to be consistent with estimates from two different reanalysis products. The GFDL-ESM2G simulations of historical and future climate also show that values of continental moisture recycling ratios were systematically higher in the past and will be lower in the future. Global mean recycling ratios decrease 2%–3% with each degree of temperature increase, indicating the increased importance of oceanic evaporation for continental precipitation. Theoretical arguments for recycling changes stem from increasing atmospheric temperatures and evaporative demand that drive increases in evaporation over oceans that are more rapid than those over land as a result of terrestrial soil moisture limitations. Simulated recycling changes are demonstrated to be consistent with these theoretical arguments. A simple prototype describing this theory effectively captures the zonal mean behavior of GFDL-ESM2G. Implications of such behavior are particularly serious in rain-fed agricultural regions where crop yields will become increasingly soil moisture limited.","Atmosphere-land interaction; General circulation models; Numerical analysis/modeling; Water budget/balance; Climate change; Hydrologic cycle","en","journal article","","","","","","","","2020-04-16","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:4f53d0dc-e359-4214-81a5-5cd80d575be8","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:4f53d0dc-e359-4214-81a5-5cd80d575be8","The Hassle Factor as a Psychological Barrier to a Green Home","de Vries, G. (TU Delft Organisation & Governance); Rietkerk, M. (Milieu Centraal); Kooger, R. (ECN part of TNO)","","2019","In order to reach climate goals, policymakers stimulate homeowners to invest in sustainable measures in and around their house. Unfortunately, however, the number of green home measures lacks behind. This article introduces perceived hassle as an important reason for this shortfall. It is claimed that homeowners perceive hassle during different stages of their (customer) journey towards a green home; the awareness stage, the consideration stage, and the decision stage. It is further theorized that people delay taking green home measures in order to avoid the anticipated stress caused by the accumulation of these hassles. Exploring the hassle factor as a psychological barrier to a green home can advance the successful implementation of policies that stimulate sustainable housing. On the one hand, our insights can help homeowners to overcome their obstacles to invest in green measures. On the other hand, they can help policymakers to improve their policies. It suggests de-hassling policy interventions and discusses their effectiveness.","Hassle; Sustainability; Energy efficiency; Climate change; Green housing; Psychology Barriers","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Organisation & Governance","","",""
"uuid:e0ab16dd-215f-4e0e-9af9-9694c2385093","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:e0ab16dd-215f-4e0e-9af9-9694c2385093","How to evaluate a monitoring system for adaptive policies: criteria for signposts selection and their model-based evaluation","Raso, L. (TU Delft Policy Analysis); Kwakkel, J.H. (TU Delft Policy Analysis); Timmermans, Jos (TU Delft Policy Analysis); Panthou, Geremy (Université Grenoble Alpes)","","2019","Adaptive policies have emerged as a valuable strategy for dealing with uncertainties by recognising the capacity of systems to adapt over time to new circumstances and surprises. The efficacy of adaptive policies hinges on detecting on-going change and ensuring that actions are indeed taken if and when necessary. This is operationalised by including a monitoring system composed of signposts and triggers in the design of the plan. A well-designed monitoring system is indispensable for the effective implementation of adaptive policies. Despite the importance of monitoring for adaptive policies, the present literature has not considered criteria enabling the a-priori evaluation of the efficacy of signposts. In this paper, we introduce criteria for the evaluation of individual signposts and the monitoring system as a whole. These criteria are relevance, observability, completeness, and parsimony. These criteria are intended to enhance the capacity to detect the need for adaptation in the presence of noisy and ambiguous observations of the real system. The criteria are identified from an analysis of the information chain, from system observations to policy success, focusing on how data becomes information. We illustrate how models, in particular, the combined use of stochastic and exploratory modelling can be used to assess individual signposts, and the whole monitoring system according to these criteria. This analysis provides significant insight into critical factors that may hinder learning from data. The proposed criteria are demonstrated using a hypothetical case, in which a monitoring system for a flood protection policy in the Niger River is designed and tested.","Adaptive policies; Climate change; Deep uncertainty; Dynamic adaptive policy pathways; Evidence based; Extremes; Flood management; Information; Monitoring; Niger River; Signposts","en","journal article","","","","","","Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.","","2019-07-21","","","Policy Analysis","","",""
"uuid:5bdcf8d3-1e41-4764-83df-2d8723c60691","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:5bdcf8d3-1e41-4764-83df-2d8723c60691","‘All sunshine makes a desert’. Building interdisciplinary understanding of survival strategies of ancient communities in the arid Zerqa Triangle, Jordan Valley","Kaptijn, Eva (Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences); Ertsen, M.W. (TU Delft Water Resources)","","2019","Archaeological studies typically describe arid areas as extremely unpleasant areas for human occupation and use. Without suggesting that arid areas are pleasant places, however, this paper provides a reassessment of the meaning of aridity for an area showing a vast amount of evidence of (past) human activities. Several climatic proxy data suggest that at the transition between the late Bronze Age and the Early Iron Age (around c. 1300-1100 BC) the southern Levant witnessed more arid conditions, while after 1100 BC relatively moist conditions would have prevailed. In drylands, small changes in temperature and water availability can have large effects on subsistence options. Building on cooperation between an archaeologist and a water scholar, this paper offers an approach to study how people in the past were able to craft a livelihood in the arid environments in the southern Levant and elsewhere. Focusing on the Zerqa area, the paper explores the potential of this cooperation by studying effects of climatic changes at the transition from the Late Bronze Age to the Iron Age through a modelling approach. Changes in temperature and moisture availability were simulated, showing that increased aridity could have been met by either naturally available water (especially groundwater) or artificially added water (although the timing appears to be crucial). While the model approach under discussion offers an approximation of the past, it shows the potential impact of climatic changes on the subsistence of past communities. It shows that details can mean the difference between survival or collapse.","Ancient water management; Climate change; Irrigation modelling; Late Bronze Age crisis; Resilience","en","journal article","","","","","","Accepted Author Manuscript","","2021-02-11","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:f661139a-068c-40c1-88c3-43bda7cdd5dc","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:f661139a-068c-40c1-88c3-43bda7cdd5dc","Assessing the capacity of adaptive policy pathways to adapt on time by mapping trigger values to their outcomes","Raso, L. (TU Delft Policy Analysis); Kwakkel, J.H. (TU Delft Policy Analysis); Timmermans, Jos (TU Delft Policy Analysis)","","2019","Climate change raises serious concerns for policymakers that want to ensure the success of long-term policies. To guarantee satisfactory decisions in the face of deep uncertainties, adaptive policy pathways might be used. Adaptive policy pathways are designed to take actions according to how the future will actually unfold. In adaptive pathways, a monitoring system collects the evidence required for activating the next adaptive action. This monitoring system is made of signposts and triggers. Signposts are indicators that track the performance of the pathway. When signposts reach pre-specified trigger values, the next action on the pathway is implemented. The effectiveness of the monitoring system is pivotal to the success of adaptive policy pathways, therefore the decision-makers would like to have sufficient confidence about the future capacity to adapt on time. ""On time"" means activating the next action on a pathway neither so early that it incurs unnecessary costs, nor so late that it incurs avoidable damages. In this paper, we show how mapping the relations between triggers and the probability of misclassification errors inform the level of confidence that a monitoring system for adaptive policy pathways can provide. Specifically, we present the ""trigger-probability"" mapping and the ""trigger-consequences"" mappings. The former mapping displays the interplay between trigger values for a given signpost and the level of confidence regarding whether change occurs and adaptation is needed. The latter mapping displays the interplay between trigger values for a given signpost and the consequences of misclassification errors for both adapting the policy or not. In a case study, we illustrate how these mappings can be used to test the effectiveness of a monitoring system, and how they can be integrated into the process of designing an adaptive policy.","Adaptation; Adaptive policies; Afsluitdijk; Changing extremes; Climate change; Extremes; Flood protection; Monitoring; Resilience; Risk management","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Policy Analysis","","",""
"uuid:f7f0d0c0-6f9e-4679-b2d9-3010de773d7a","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:f7f0d0c0-6f9e-4679-b2d9-3010de773d7a","Knowledge co-production in climate adaptation planning of archaeological sites","Fatorić, Sandra (TU Delft History, Form & Aesthetics)","","2019","Climate adaptation is a process for minimizing the risks of damage or loss to coastal archaeological sites. Yet, adaptation requires identifying and prioritizing among the diverse aspects of a site’s significance, as not all sites can be simultaneously adapted due to financial and human capital constraints. Developing a measurement framework that can ascertain the relative significance between sites necessitates the collaboration of multiple perspectives, including experts who set policy and on-the-ground managers who must translate policy into practice while accounting for the management preferences of associated communities. This paper explores if a values-based process enables co-production of knowledge related to the significance of archeological sites. Specifically, this paper examines the influences of a workshop—conducted with diverse archaeological experts working for the U.S. National Park Service—on knowledge co-production and documents the extent of changes in experts’ opinions using a pre–post survey design. Findings suggest that the values-based approach applied during the workshop can have a positive impact on knowledge co-production among experts. Changes were found in experts’ perceptions of the importance of various considerations influencing archaeological site prioritization, as well as of the extent to which uncertainties challenge archaeological preservation. This paper presents novel findings about the importance of knowledge co-production in relation to coastal archaeological site preservation and climate adaptation in the U.S. Prioritization considerations and challenges of various uncertainties assessed in this study can provide valuable insights for progress in climate change policy for cultural heritage both in the U.S and globally.","Climate change adaptation; Social learning; Prioritization; Uncertainties; Values-based approach","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","History, Form & Aesthetics","","",""
"uuid:dbf6c621-d0b1-4d33-a0e7-1e5aea88e447","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:dbf6c621-d0b1-4d33-a0e7-1e5aea88e447","Assessment of climate change effects on navigable conditions on the river branches of the Rhine in The Netherlands.","Vinke, Frederik R.S. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering); van Dorsser, Cornelis (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering); Vellinga, T. (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering)","","2019","Inland Water Transport (IWT) is one of the modalities for freight transport between the ports of Rotterdam, Amsterdam, Antwerp and the hinterland in Germany. Transport over water between these areas is possible as a result of the presence of the Rhine, but more important are the navigation conditions on the river. As a result of climate change, these navigable conditions on the river will deteriorate in the future by lower extreme river discharges and sea level rise. The available navigable water depth will decrease on the Rhine branches Waal, Nederrijn en IUssel due to lower river discharges in dry periods, while the available head clearance under bridges becomes smaller for transport of containers in the Rhine-Meuse-delta. The worsening navigable conditions are amplified by long term-processes in the river system and trends in the freight transport sector. This will lead to the reduction of load capacity of vessels, an increase of travel time and travel costs. Stakeholders in the IWT-sector (port authorities, waterway authorities, shippers and barge operators) have the urgency to find out where potential bottlenecks may arise in the future and to develop mitigation measures. In the current literature numerical models are applied to assess the impact of climate change on Inland Water Transport for specific relations or processes. Simulations with those models is executed for one climate scenario or one time horizon for a larger part of the IWT -network. Other researchers make use of analytical relations applied on one or two bottlenecks for multiple climate scenarios and time horizons. An integral assessment to setup an overview of potential bottlenecks for multiple climate scenarios and time horizons based on an integrated model is lacking. In this project an integrated assessment meta-model is built to examine navigation conditions as a result of climate change and the impact on IWT. The focus of the first part of the project is to assess the climate change impacts on IWT. In the second part the aim is to develop and assess a number of mitigation measures. In this paper, first, an analysis of potential bottlenecks is executed. As a case study, the integrated assessment meta-model is applied on the river branches Waal and IUssel for one climate scenario and time horizon. The results give insight into the locations where problems will occur for navigation conditions and mitigation measures are needed to improve the conditions in case of low river discharges. The method and model will be applied for the assessment of mitigation measures in the second phase of the research project. The outcomes of the two research phases shall be used to define policies by waterway manager Rijkswaterstaat for efficient IWT in the future over the river Rhine or to develop new logistic concepts by ports, shipping companies or barge operators.","Climate Change; Inland Navigation; Rivers","en","conference paper","","","","","","","","","","","Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering","","",""
"uuid:93ba9bbb-0312-49b4-8a4b-af4c7841acc7","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:93ba9bbb-0312-49b4-8a4b-af4c7841acc7","A simplified water accounting procedure to assess climate change impact on water resources for agriculture across different European river basins","Hunink, Johannes (Future Water); Simons, Gijs (Future Water); Suárez-Almiñana, Sara (Universitat Politécnica de Valencia); Solera, Abel (Universitat Politécnica de Valencia); Andreu, Joaquín (Universitat Politécnica de Valencia); Giuliani, Matteo (Politecnico di Milano); Zamberletti, Patrizia (Politecnico di Milano; INRA BioSP); Grillakis, Manolis (Technical University of Crete); Bastiaanssen, W.G.M. (TU Delft Water Resources)","","2019","European agriculture and water policies require accurate information on climate change impacts on available water resources. Water accounting, that is a standardized documentation of data on water resources, is a useful tool to provide this information. Pan-European data on climate impacts do not recognize local anthropogenic interventions in the water cycle. Most European river basins have a specific toolset that is understood and used by local experts and stakeholders. However, these local tools are not versatile. Thus, there is a need for a common approach that can be understood by multi-fold users to quantify impact indicators based on local data and that can be used to synthesize information at the European level. Then, policies can be designed with the confidence that underlying data are backed-up by local context and expert knowledge. This work presents a simplified water accounting framework that allows for a standardized examination of climate impacts on water resource availability and use across multiple basins. The framework is applied to five different river basins across Europe. Several indicators are extracted that explicitly describe green water fluxes versus blue water fluxes and impacts on agriculture. The examples show that a simplified water accounting framework can be used to synthesize basin-level information on climate change impacts which can support policymaking on climate adaptation, water resources and agriculture.","Agriculture; Climate change impacts; Hydrological data; Water accounting; Water resources; Water scarcity and drought","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:297115ab-794a-4aac-bc5b-2a6ade52d0fa","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:297115ab-794a-4aac-bc5b-2a6ade52d0fa","Collaborative spatial planning in the face of flood risk in delta cities: A policy framing perspective","Meng, M. (TU Delft Spatial Planning and Strategy); Dabrowski, M.M. (TU Delft Spatial Planning and Strategy); Tai, Y. (TU Delft OLD Urban Compositions); Stead, D. (TU Delft Spatial Planning and Strategy); Chan, Faith (University of Nottingham; University of Leeds)","","2019","Integration of flood risk in spatial planning is increasingly seen as a way to enhance cities’ resilience to the growing flood hazards, albeit its operationalisation remains challenging. This study aims to explain the reasons for this difficulty through the case study of Guangzhou, a Chinese delta city that is highly vulnerable to coastal, fluvial and pluvial flooding, particularly in the context of a changing climate and rapid expansion of the urban fabric. It does so by investigating the recognition of flood risk in spatial planning and vice-versa, of spatial issues in the flood risk management field, using framing analysis. The paper reveals that the integration of flood risk concerns in spatial planning in Guangzhou remains an emerging process, gradually shifting from informal to formal activities grounded in legislation. This happens through percolation of framing discourse from the flood risk management policy to spatial planning, leading to changes in problem setting, action scripts and the prescribed governance arrangements in the planning discourse. The vagueness of governance arrangements, however, undermines the integration of flood risk management in spatial planning.","Boundary spanning; Climate change; Delta cities; Flood risk; Framing analysis; Spatial planning","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Spatial Planning and Strategy","","",""
"uuid:3161fab7-209d-4730-8a35-738528263e43","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:3161fab7-209d-4730-8a35-738528263e43","Potential and challenges of low-carbon energy options: Comparative assessment of alternative fuels for the transport sector","Fernández-Dacosta, Cora (Universiteit Utrecht); Shen, Li (Universiteit Utrecht); Schakel, Wouter (Universiteit Utrecht); Ramirez, Andrea (TU Delft Energie and Industrie); Kramer, Gert Jan (Universiteit Utrecht)","","2019","The deployment of low-emission alternative fuels is crucial to decarbonise the transport sector. A number of alternatives like hydrogen or dimethyl ether/methanol synthesised using CO2 as feedstock for fuel production (hereafter refer to “CO2-based fuels”) have been proposed to combat climate change. However, the decarbonisation potential of CO2-based fuels is under debate because CO2 is re-emitted to the atmosphere when the fuel is combusted; and the majority of hydrogen still relies on fossil resources, which makes its prospects of being a low-carbon fuel dependent on its manufacturing process. First, this paper investigates the relative economic and environmental performance of hydrogen (produced from conventional steam methane reforming and produced via electrolysis using renewable energy), and CO2-based fuels (dimethyl ether and methanol), considering the full carbon cycle. The results reveal that hydrogen produced from steam methane reforming is the most economical option and that hydrogen produced via electrolysis using renewables has the best environmental profile. Whereas the idea of CO2-based fuels has recently gained much interest, it has for the foreseeable future rather limited practical relevance since there is no favourable combination of cost and environmental performance. This will only change in the long run and requires that CO2 is of non-fossil origin, i.e. from biomass combustion or captured from air. Second, this paper address unresolved methodological issues in the assessment of CO2-based fuels, such as the possible allocation of emissions to the different sectors involved. The outcomes indicate that implementing different allocation approaches substantially influences the carbon footprint of CO2-based fuels. To avoid allocation issues, expanding the boundaries including the entire system and is therefore recommended.","Carbon capture and utilisation (CCU); Climate change mitigation; CO-based fuel; Hydrogen; Life cycle assessment (LCA); Prospective technology assessment","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Energie and Industrie","","",""
"uuid:138ca6a3-69da-40f7-bcb3-e2d8369ed3f1","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:138ca6a3-69da-40f7-bcb3-e2d8369ed3f1","Moisture source changes contributed to different precipitation changes over the northern and southern Tibetan Plateau","Zhang, Chi (Chinese Academy of Sciences); Tang, Qiuhong (Chinese Academy of Sciences; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences); Chen, Deliang (University of Gothenburg; Chinese Academy of Sciences); van der Ent, R.J. (TU Delft Water Resources; Universiteit Utrecht); Liu, Xingcai (Chinese Academy of Sciences); Li, Wenhong (Duke University); Haile, Gebremedhin Gebremeskel (Chinese Academy of Sciences)","","2019","Precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) showed different spatial changes during 1979-2016, with an increasing trend over the northern Tibetan Plateau (NTP) and a slightly negative trend over the southern Tibetan Plateau (STP). The changes in precipitation moisture sources over the NTP and STP are investigated using the improved Water Accounting Model with an atmospheric reanalysis as well as observational precipitation and evaporation data. The results show the region in the northwest (region NW), ranging from the TP to Europe dominated by the westerlies, provides 38.9% of precipitation moisture for the NTP, and the region in the southeast (region SE), ranging from the TP to the Indian Ocean and Indochina dominated by the Asian monsoons, provides 51.4% of precipitation moisture for the STP. For the precipitation increase over the NTP, the SE and TP are the main contributors, contributing around 35.8% and 51.7% of the increase, respectively. The contributions from the SE and TP to the STP are, however, minor and insignificant. Meanwhile, the NW shows a negative trend of -4.2 ± 2.9mmyr -1 decade -1 (significant at the 0.01 level), which contributes to the negative precipitation trend over the STP. Results during the wet season indicate that moisture sources from the areas dominated by the Asian monsoons have contributed more precipitated moisture for the NTP, but not for the STP. Further analysis reveals that precipitated moisture originating from the Indian subcontinent has increased for the NTP while it has decreased for the STP during 1979-2016.","Climate change; Climatology; Moisture/moisture budget; Water budget","en","journal article","","","","","","Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.","","2019-08-04","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:d3562187-c2e5-4e34-8252-e009d92a77e4","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d3562187-c2e5-4e34-8252-e009d92a77e4","Supporting Interventions to Reduce Household Greenhouse Gas Emissions: A Transdisciplinary Role-Playing Game Development","Agusdinata, Datu Buyung (Arizona State University); Lukosch, H.K. (TU Delft Policy Analysis)","","2019","Background. Designing interventions for conserving the food, energy, and water nexus at household level poses a significant challenge due to the complex interplay between human behaviors, technologies, and policies. Games show potential to increase awareness for environmental issues and influence behaviors towards more sustainable practices. Aim. By bringing together scientists and practitioners in the game design process, a transdisciplinary (TD) approach is seen as a promising way to integrate available knowledge and establish ownership of the problem and solution options. Few gaming literature, however, looked at combining the two approaches in addressing resource conservation issues. Method. We present a systematic account of the TD approach process of developing a role-playing game (RPG) - called HomeRUN (Role-play for Understanding Nexus). Results. We documented our experiences in terms of challenges as well as the benefits of the TD approach. Interacting disciplines in this process include psychology, economics, engineering, climate, sociology, and computer science. Inputs from each discipline combined with feedback from social actors that include city government, utility companies, and community members facilitated continuous improvements of the RPG design.","climate change; development; environment; learning; role-playing game","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Policy Analysis","","",""
"uuid:057647ba-426b-4bbb-ac90-53bd591550f2","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:057647ba-426b-4bbb-ac90-53bd591550f2","Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017","Box, Jason Eric (Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland); Colgan, William T (Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland); Røjle Christensen, Torben (Aarhus University; Lund University); Schmidt, Niels Martin (Aarhus University); Lund, Magnus (Aarhus University; Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research, Soil and Land Use); Parmentier, Frans-Jan W (Lund University; Universitetet i Oslo); Brown, Ross (Environment and Climate Change); Bhatt, Uma S (University of Alaska Fairbanks); Wouters, B. (TU Delft Physical and Space Geodesy; Universiteit Utrecht)","","2019","Key observational indicators of climate change in the Arctic, most spanning a 47 year period (1971–2017) demonstrate fundamental changes among nine key elements of the Arctic system. We find that, coherent with increasing air temperature, there is an intensification of the hydrological cycle, evident from increases in humidity, precipitation, river discharge, glacier equilibrium line altitude and land ice wastage. Downward trends continue in sea ice thickness (and extent) and spring snow cover extent and duration, while near-surface permafrost continues to warm. Several of the climate indicators exhibit a significant statistical correlation with air temperature or precipitation, reinforcing the notion that increasing air temperatures and precipitation are drivers of major changes in various components of the Arctic system. To progress beyond a presentation of the Arctic physical climate changes, we find a correspondence between air temperature and biophysical indicators such as tundra biomass and identify numerous biophysical disruptions with cascading effects throughout the trophic levels. These include: increased delivery of organic matter and nutrients to Arctic near‐coastal zones; condensed flowering and pollination plant species periods; timing mismatch between plant flowering and pollinators; increased plant vulnerability to insect disturbance; increased shrub biomass; increased ignition of wildfires; increased growing season CO2 uptake, with counterbalancing increases in shoulder season and winter CO2 emissions; increased carbon cycling, regulated by local hydrology and permafrost thaw; conversion between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems; and shifting animal distribution and demographics. The Arctic biophysical system is now clearly trending away from its 20th Century state and into an unprecedented state, with implications not only within but beyond the Arctic. The indicator time series of this study are freely downloadable at AMAP.no.","AMAP; Arctic climate change; observational records","en","review","","","","","","","","","","","Physical and Space Geodesy","","",""
"uuid:f8839a3b-a9e9-4470-ac24-1a9fa1a5ab96","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:f8839a3b-a9e9-4470-ac24-1a9fa1a5ab96","A Comparison of Spatial–Temporal Scale Between Multiscalar Drought Indices in the South Central Region of Vietnam","Le, Hung Manh (Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) of Vietnam); Corzo, Gerald A. (IHE Delft Institute for Water Education); Medina, Vicente (Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya); Diaz, Vitali (TU Delft Water Resources; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education); Nguyen, Bang Luong (Thuy Loi University); Solomatine, D.P. (TU Delft Water Resources; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education)","Corzo, G. (editor); Varouchakis, E.A. (editor)","2019","Drought indicators are of critical importance in characterization and forecasting. The use of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) has increasingly become the main tool for drought analysis; however, the index lacks hydrological information useful as a proxy for other types of droughts. This study aims at evaluating the SPI against the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) in the South Central Region of Vietnam. The indices were calculated using monthly rainfall and temperature data measurements from 30 rainfall and 13 temperature stations, during the period from 1977 to 2014. The study focuses on the spatial-temporal variations of drought events and therefore an area of 1680 grid cells of 4x4 km was selected. Inverse distance weighting was used to interpolate grid rainfall and temperature prior to drought indices estimating at multiple time scales (3, 6, 9, and 12 months). Drought severity was classified from gridded SPIs and SPEIs using a Non-Contiguous Drought Area (NCDA) approach. The result indicated that drought characteristics using the SPEI and NCDA can capture better historical drought conditions than that using the SPI and NCDA. This suggests an important role of temperature factor in the degree of drought severity. The analysis of spatial-temporal drought on the SPEI showed that the occurrence of moderate droughts in the study area was 1-2 years, and the highest percentage of drought in the area was observed in the summer-autumn season at all SPEI time scales. The results of this study may extend our understanding of natural drought mechanisms.","Climate change; Global models analysis; Precipitation and temperature projections; Spatiotemporal; STRIVIng toolbox","en","book chapter","Elsevier","","","","","Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.","","2020-07-11","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:5b878636-0667-4441-9481-f61917194622","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:5b878636-0667-4441-9481-f61917194622","Large-scale exploratory analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution of climate projections: applying the STRIVIng toolbox","Diaz, Vitali (TU Delft Water Resources; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education); Corzo, Gerald A. (IHE Delft Institute for Water Education); Pérez, José R. (Instituto Nacional de Recursos Hidráulicos)","Corzo, G. (editor); Varouchakis, E.A. (editor)","2019","Extreme hydrological events (EHEs), such as droughts and floods, vary spatially and temporally in nature. The increase in the number of events in the last few decades has motivated the research of the spatiotemporal variability of the future extreme precipitation and temperature. To study the consequences on the EHEs due to the uncertainty of projected climate changes, the analysis in more detail of precipitation and temperature, in space and time, is vital. In addition, for proper planning and decision-making process to address EHEs, understanding such climate changes requires more information. In this chapter we present a summarized assessment of the spatiotemporal variations of climate projections. A simplified way to aggregate global data is used for the spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation and temperature. To carry out this analysis, the Spatio-TempoRal distribution and Interannual VarIability of projections (STRIVIng) toolbox is proposed for statistical exploratory analysis of climate projections. Three large-scale applications were carried out for illustration: Dominican Republic (48,670 km2), Mexico (1,972,550 km2), and Amazon basin (6,171,148.7 km2). The methodology and toolbox presented here allow regions to be identified where the changes are expected to be more severe on precipitation and temperature, as well as months in which those changes are likely to occur. The STRIVIng toolbox is open source and helps to provide basic information to increase the interpretations and research in the space–time analysis of extremes.","Climate change; Global models analysis; Precipitation and temperature projections; STRIVIng toolbox; Spatiotemporal","en","book chapter","Elsevier","","","","","Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.","","2019-07-11","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:fbeac795-9901-4852-ab73-085bd78a0730","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:fbeac795-9901-4852-ab73-085bd78a0730","Global sea-level contribution from Arctic land ice: 1971-2017","Box, Jason E. (Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland); Colgan, William T. (Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland); Wouters, B. (TU Delft Physical and Space Geodesy; Universiteit Utrecht); Burgess, David O. (Natural Resources Canada); O'Neel, Shad (North Central Climate Science Centre); Thomson, Laura I. (Queen’s University); Mernild, Sebastian H. (Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center; Western Norway University of Applied Sciences; Universidad de Magallanes)","","2018","The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP 2017) report identifies the Arctic as the largest regional source of land ice to global sea-level rise in the 2003-2014 period. Yet, this contextualization ignores the longer perspective from in situ records of glacier mass balance. Here, using 17 (>55°N latitude) glacier and ice cap mass balance series in the 1971-2017 period, we develop a semi-empirical estimate of annual sea-level contribution from seven Arctic regions by scaling the in situ records to GRACE averages. We contend that our estimate represents the most accurate Arctic land ice mass balance assessment so far available before the 1992 start of satellite altimetry. We estimate the 1971-2017 eustatic sea-level contribution from land ice north of ∼55°N to be 23.0 ±12.3mm sea-level equivalent (SLE). In all regions, the cumulative sea-level rise curves exhibit an acceleration, starting especially after 1988. Greenland is the source of 46% of the Arctic sea-level rise contribution (10.6±7.3 mm), followed by Alaska (5.7±2.2 mm), Arctic Canada (3.2 ±0.7 mm) and the Russian High Arctic (1.5 ±0.4 mm). Our annual results exhibit co-variability over a 43 year overlap (1971-2013) with the alternative dataset of Marzeion et al (2015 Cryosphere 9 2399-404) (M15). However, we find a 1.36×lower sea-level contribution, in agreement with satellite gravimetry. The IPCC Fifth Assessment report identified constraining the pre-satellite era sea-level budget as a topic of low scientific understanding that we address and specify sea-level contributions coinciding with IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) 'present day' (2005-2015) and 'recent past' (1986-2005) reference periods. We assess an Arctic land ice loss of 8.3 mm SLE during the recent past and 12.4 mm SLE during the present day. The seven regional sea-level rise contribution time series of this study are available from AMAP.no.","Climate change; Climatology; Glaciology; Land ice; Mass-balance; Sea-Level","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Physical and Space Geodesy","","",""
"uuid:8c9a0255-50b9-4f5e-8b97-ee0b9c74f86a","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:8c9a0255-50b9-4f5e-8b97-ee0b9c74f86a","The impact of a CO2 reduction target on the private car fleet in the netherlands","Vleugel, J (TU Delft Transport and Planning); Bal, Frans (RISSK)","Casares, J (editor); Passerini, G (editor); Perillo, G (editor)","2018","Climate change mitigation calls for a massive reduction in CO2-emissions from human sources. A primary human source is combustion of fossil fuels. Transport by road is one of the major and growing users of fossil fuels worldwide. Private cars with internal combustion engines dominate our roads. This paper discusses the feasibility of aligning CO2-emissions of private cars with the Paris
Climate Agreement for 2030. It starts in 2010. Country of study is The Netherlands. The relation between climate change and air pollution is taken aboard. The following research questions will be addressed: How many private cars were there in The Netherlands, how many kilometres were driven and what were their CO2, NOx and PM10 emissions in 2010? What would these values be in the year 2030 assuming continuation of current trends in technology and policy? What could these values be if there were only full electric vehicles (FEV) on the road by 2030? Would behavioural change be necessary to reach the national CO2-reduction target for 2030? In the simulation model assumptions
were used about car ownership and volume, electric cars, fuel efficiency and electricity mix. Car production could be limited to the most fuel-efficient and lowest emission electric cars. Buyers’ choice would become restricted. Fulfilling the Dutch CO2-emission reduction target for 2030 is only possible by using state-of-the-art technology in a fleet of 100% full electric cars (FEV) and a major
reduction in yearly car kilometres (either per car or via fewer cars). This assumes a revolution in car production and sales and an active mobility reduction and modal shift policy. The first has just started, while the second and third are unlikely after decades of liberal policy-making, which has stimulated car mobility by expanding the road network, increasing maximum speeds and cutting
public transport budgets.","Climate change, transport, technology, behaviour, car use, simulation, 2030","en","conference paper","WIT Press","","","","","","","","","","Transport and Planning","","",""
"uuid:8c8654e8-3122-4ca2-8024-5cd334857dd1","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:8c8654e8-3122-4ca2-8024-5cd334857dd1","Sea-level change in the Dutch Wadden Sea","Vermeersen, L.L.A. (TU Delft Physical and Space Geodesy; Universiteit Utrecht); Baart, F. (Deltares); Cohen, Kim M. (Deltares; Universiteit Utrecht); Frederikse, T. (TU Delft Physical and Space Geodesy); Kiden, Patrick (TNO); Kleinherenbrink, M. (TU Delft Physical and Space Geodesy); Riva, R.E.M. (TU Delft Physical and Space Geodesy); Slobbe, D.C. (TU Delft Physical and Space Geodesy); van der Wegen, M. (Deltares; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education)","","2018","Rising sea levels due to climate change can have severe consequences for coastal populations and ecosystems all around the world. Understanding and projecting sea-level rise is especially important for low-lying countries such as the Netherlands. It is of specific interest for vulnerable ecological and morphodynamic regions, such as the Wadden Sea UNESCO World Heritage region. Here we provide an overview of sea-level projections for the 21st century for the Wadden Sea region and a condensed review of the scientific data, understanding and uncertainties underpinning the projections. The sea-level projections are formulated in the framework of the geological history of the Wadden Sea region and are based on the regional sea-level projections published in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). These IPCC AR5 projections are compared against updates derived from more recent literature and evaluated for the Wadden Sea region. The projections are further put into perspective by including interannual variability based on long-Term tide-gauge records from observing stations at Den Helder and Delfzijl. We consider three climate scenarios, following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), as defined in IPCC AR5: The RCP2.6 scenario assumes that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions decline after 2020; the RCP4.5 scenario assumes that GHG emissions peak at 2040 and decline thereafter; and the RCP8.5 scenario represents a continued rise of GHG emissions throughout the 21st century. For RCP8.5, we also evaluate several scenarios from recent literature where the mass loss in Antarctica accelerates at rates exceeding those presented in IPCC AR5. For the Dutch Wadden Sea, the IPCC AR5-based projected sea-level rise is 0.07±0.06m for the RCP4.5 scenario for the period 2018-30 (uncertainties representing 5-95%), with the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios projecting 0.01m less and more, respectively. The projected rates of sea-level change in 2030 range between 2.6mma-1 for the 5th percentile of the RCP2.6 scenario to 9.1mma-1 for the 95th percentile of the RCP8.5 scenario. For the period 2018-50, the differences between the scenarios increase, with projected changes of 0.16±0.12m for RCP2.6, 0.19±0.11m for RCP4.5 and 0.23±0.12m for RCP8.5. The accompanying rates of change range between 2.3 and 12.4mma-1 in 2050. The differences between the scenarios amplify for the 2018-2100 period, with projected total changes of 0.41±0.25m for RCP2.6, 0.52±0.27m for RCP4.5 and 0.76±0.36m for RCP8.5. The projections for the RCP8.5 scenario are larger than the high-end projections presented in the 2008 Delta Commission Report (0.74m for 1990-2100) when the differences in time period are considered. The sea-level change rates range from 2.2 to 18.3mma-1 for the year 2100. We also assess the effect of accelerated ice mass loss on the sea-level projections under the RCP8.5 scenario, as recent literature suggests that there may be a larger contribution from Antarctica than presented in IPCC AR5 (potentially exceeding 1m in 2100). Changes in episodic extreme events, such as storm surges, and periodic (tidal) contributions on (sub-)daily timescales, have not been included in these sea-level projections. However, the potential impacts of these processes on sea-level change rates have been assessed in the report.","climate change; regional sea-level scenarios; sea-level rise; Wadden Sea","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Physical and Space Geodesy","","",""
"uuid:c7757e2e-7976-46bc-adb3-d0a2b51cadd1","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:c7757e2e-7976-46bc-adb3-d0a2b51cadd1","Impact of climate change: Environmental assessment of passive solutions in a single-family home in Southern Spain","Suárez, Rafael (University of Seville); Escandon, R. (University of Seville); López-Pérez, Ramón (University of Seville); León-Rodríguez, Ángel Luis (University of Seville); Klein, T. (TU Delft Building Product Innovation); Silvester, S. (TU Delft Applied Ergonomics and Design)","","2018","According to the IPCC Climate Change projections by 2050 temperatures in southern Spain will have increased noticeably during the summer. Housing-in its current form-will not be able to provide a suitable response to this new climate scenario, and will in turn prompt an increase in cooling energy consumption and a series of problems relating to health and comfort. The Design Builder simulation tool was used to quantify the impact of this future climate scenario on energy demand, as well as its effect under free-running conditions on indoor temperature. Different passive conditioning strategies were evaluated to establish their influence on the indoor comfort conditions. The case study examined a theoretical single-family residential unit model in order to establish guidelines for the pre-selection of the most suitable passive solutions. The results show that passive conditioning strategies analysed (envelope treatment, solar gain protection and night-time natural ventilation) reduce energy demand and indoor temperatures, thus increasing energy efficiency and improving indoor comfort conditions. Therefore, these passive conditioning strategies reduce the cooling energy consumption.","Climate change; Energy efficiency; Mediterranean climate; Night-time natural ventilation; Passive conditioning strategies; Thermal comfort","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Building Product Innovation","","",""
"uuid:e196a135-f562-4c81-8f99-af98c71cd52a","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:e196a135-f562-4c81-8f99-af98c71cd52a","Framework for assessing the performance of flood adaptation innovations using a risk-based approach","Lendering, K.T. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk; Horvat & Partners); Sebastian, Antonia (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk; Rice University); Jonkman, Sebastiaan N. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk); Kok, M. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk)","","2018","The application of risk-based approaches for the design of flood infrastructure has become increasingly common in flood management. This approach, based on risk reduction and reliability, is used to assess the performance of conventional interventions (e.g., flood defences and dams) and to support decisions regarding their implementation. However, for more innovative solutions, performance has often not been quantified by means of these metrics and, therefore, end-users are hesitant to implement them in existing flood risk reduction systems. To overcome the gap between innovators and end-users, we present a framework based on four performance indicators, to ensure the required insights in risk and reliability are provided. The four indicators: effectiveness, durability, reliability and costs, allow end-users to evaluate, select, and implement flood adaptation innovations, and provide innovators with insight into the performance of the technology and the criteria and information necessary for successful market uptake of their innovation. The practical application of the framework is demonstrated for a (hypothetical) case of a hospital complex built in an area that has subsided below the surrounding area, which is subject to tropical rain showers. The following innovations are considered: an early flood warning system, a green roof, and a temporary flood barrier.","climate change; flood mitigation; integrated flood risk management; risk analysis","en","journal article","","","","","","Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.","","2019-01-23","","","Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk","","",""
"uuid:dd8bcf84-aa97-45f1-b482-578353b89378","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:dd8bcf84-aa97-45f1-b482-578353b89378","The Transboundary Impacts of Trade Liberalization and Climate Change on the Nile Basin Economies and Water Resource Availability","Kahsay, Tewodros Negash (Addis Ababa University); Kuik, Onno (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Brouwer, Roy (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; University of Waterloo); van der Zaag, P. (TU Delft Water Resources; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education)","","2018","A multi-country, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used for the first time to evaluate the economic and water resource availability effects of trade liberalization (removal of import tariffs) and facilitation (reducing non-tariff barriers) under climate change in the Nile Basin. The analysis uses the GTAP 9 Database and the GTAP-W model that distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as a factor of production directly substitutable in the production process of irrigated agriculture. A full trade liberalization and improved trade facilitation scenario is considered with and without climate change. The study reveals that trade liberalization and facilitation generates substantial economic benefits and enhances economic growth and welfare in the Nile basin. The effect of instituting a free trade policy on water savings is found to be limited, while climate change improves water supply and hence irrigation water use, enhancing economic growth and welfare in the basin.","Climate change; Computable general equilibrium model; Nile River Basin; Trade liberalization","en","journal article","","","","","","","","2019-02-01","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:f41129a0-3b6f-42a0-83b8-f9fdd8d029a4","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:f41129a0-3b6f-42a0-83b8-f9fdd8d029a4","Assessing Flood Risk Under Sea Level Rise and Extreme Sea Levels Scenarios: Application to the Ebro Delta (Spain)","Sayol España, J.M. (TU Delft Environmental Fluid Mechanics; University of the Balearic Islands); Marcos, M. (University of the Balearic Islands)","","2018","This study presents a novel methodology to estimate the impact of local sea level rise and extreme surges and waves in coastal areas under climate change scenarios. The methodology is applied to the Ebro Delta, a valuable and vulnerable low-lying wetland located in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. Projections of local sea level accounting for all contributions to mean sea level changes, including thermal expansion, dynamic changes, fresh water addition and glacial isostatic adjustment, have been obtained from regionalized sea level projections during the 21st century. Particular attention has been paid to the uncertainties, which have been derived from the spread of the multi-model ensemble combined with seasonal/inter-annual sea level variability from local tide gauge observations. Besides vertical land movements have also been integrated to estimate local relative sea level rise. On the other hand, regional projections over the Mediterranean basin of storm surges and wind-waves have been used to evaluate changes in extreme events. The compound effects of surges and extreme waves have been quantified using their joint probability distributions. Finally, offshore sea level projections from extreme events superimposed to mean sea level have been propagated onto a high resolution digital elevation model of the study region in order to construct flood hazards maps for mid and end of the 21st century and under two different climate change scenarios. The effect of each contribution has been evaluated in terms of percentage of the area exposed to coastal hazards, which will help to design more efficient protection and adaptation measures.","climate change; Ebro Delta; flood hazard; sea level rise; storm surge; wind wave","en","journal article","","","","","","","","2018-12-31","","","Environmental Fluid Mechanics","","",""
"uuid:dad651f1-c5a7-4bae-85f1-f2e9d2e474e2","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:dad651f1-c5a7-4bae-85f1-f2e9d2e474e2","From Paris Agreement to action: Enhancing climate change familiarity and situation awareness","Onencan, A.M. (TU Delft Policy Analysis); van de Walle, B.A. (TU Delft Policy Analysis)","","2018","The Paris Agreement was a monumental stride towards global climate change governance. It unlocked the climate change gridlock, introducing country-subjective commitments and a five-year review mechanism. To support the implementation of the Paris Agreement, we designed the Nzoia WeShareIt climate change game. Game sessions were conducted in June and July 2015, and 35 respondents completed a pre- and post-game situation awareness (SA) questionnaire and an in-game performance measurement system. The questionnaire uses a 10-dimensional situation awareness rating technique (SART). Subsequently, we conducted a factorial MANOVA (multivariate analysis of variance) to assess the interaction effects between familiarity, team, and gender. Results indicate an increase in situation awareness. However, policymakers' action was not contingent on the increased SA only, there was a significant interaction effect between familiarity and SA, to lead to climate change actions. Therefore, we recommend more emphasis on the role of familiarity in enhancing SA and, subsequently, supporting the implementation to the Paris five-year review country commitments. We also recommend the increased usage of symbols and capacity development of policymakers on connective capacity to enable them to span the climate change boundaries.","Climate change disaster risk reduction; Familiarity; Gender; Metaphors; Policy games; Situation awareness; Stories; Symbols; Synecdoche; Team cooperation; Water governance; OA-Fund TU Delft","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Policy Analysis","","",""
"uuid:e3c7ece4-3153-49e2-bafa-8f533e6c9992","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:e3c7ece4-3153-49e2-bafa-8f533e6c9992","Global mortality from storm surges is decreasing","Bouwer, LM (Deltares); Jonkman, Sebastiaan N. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk)","","2018","Changes in society's vulnerability to natural hazards are important to understand, as they determine current and future risks, and the need to improve protection. Very large impacts including high numbers of fatalities occur due to single storm surge flood events. Here, we report on impacts of global coastal storm surge events since the year 1900, based on a compilation of events and data on loss of life. We find that over the past, more than eight thousand people are killed and 1.5 million people are affected annually by storm surges. The occurrence of very substantial loss of life (>10 000 persons) from single events has however decreased over time. Moreover, there is a consistent decrease in event mortality, measured by the fraction of exposed people that are killed, for all global regions, except South East Asia. Average mortality for storm surges is slightly higher than for river floods, but lower than for flash floods. We also find that for the same coastal surge water level, mortality has decreased over time. This indicates that risk reduction efforts have been successful, but need to be continued with projected climate change, increased rates of sea-level rise and urbanisation in coastal zones.","loss of life; climate change; mortality; vulnerability; coast; storm surge","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk","","",""
"uuid:245c4c9e-ec7a-4f33-8c24-0d092706c9cd","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:245c4c9e-ec7a-4f33-8c24-0d092706c9cd","Modeling dynamics and adaptation at operational and structural scales for the ex-ante economic evaluation of large dams in an African context","Raso, L. (TU Delft Policy Analysis); Barbier, Bruno (CIRAD); Bader, Jean Claude (IRD)","","2018","Dams can produce electricity and ensure water security, but at the same time they radically alter the hydrological regime of rivers with significant consequences for the economic and environmental welfare of the region in which they are located. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is currently the most frequently used framework for the economic evaluations of dams. Changes at different time scales influence the economic appraisal of dams. However, change and adaptation at both the operational and the structural level are often not included in the CBA evaluation. Not including change and adaptation limits the realistic estimation of cost and benefits, and the appreciation of resilient solutions that offer satisfactory responses for a large set of future scenarios. In this paper we consider the specific features of large dams in an African context, and identify methods for an economic evaluation that takes into account for change and adaptation at both the operational and the structural scales, as well as their interplay. These methods are then applied to the ex-ante evaluation of a system of existing dams on the Senegal River Valley. Results indicate the economic potential of the dams under changing conditions, for both adaptive and non-adaptive reservoir operation strategies.","Adaptation; Africa; Climate change; Cost-benefit analysis; Dam; Deep uncertainty; Optimization; Reservoir; Reservoir operation; Resilience; Robustness; Senegal River","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Policy Analysis","","",""
"uuid:fc802d74-495f-48e7-a1b2-cb67b2dce6a2","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:fc802d74-495f-48e7-a1b2-cb67b2dce6a2","Social Innovation and the Energy Transition","Hoppe, T. (TU Delft Organisation & Governance); de Vries, G. (TU Delft Organisation & Governance)","","2018","The transition to low carbon energy systems cannot solely rely on technological innovation. It also requires social innovation. In the context of energy transition social innovation can be defined as innovation that is social in its means and which contributes to low carbon energy transition, civic empowerment and social goals pertaining to the general wellbeing of communities. This article presents the editorial comment of the special issue “Social Innovation and the Energy Transition”. It seeks to answer the questions, “what does social innovation mean in the face of energy transition, and what are its implications?” This special issue yields 20 article contributions by authors from different academic disciplines within the behavioral and social sciences. From these contributions, key topics relevant to social innovation emerge, pertaining to: (i) technological innovation leading to new market models, actor configurations, and institutional settings creating room for social innovation; (ii) new governance arrangements; (iii) community energy, its impact, implications, and social incentives and policy to empower it; (iv) new participative research approaches to test and learn from livings labs and best practices; (v) ‘green nudges’ to stimulate behavioral change; and (vi), serious energy games. The editorial ends with suggestions for future research.","social innovation; energy transition; green nudge; community energy; community empowerment; renewable energy; energy governance; climate change mitigation","en","contribution to periodical","","","","","","","","","","","Organisation & Governance","","",""
"uuid:4f4af3e7-d6e2-4d86-a757-e3e909be7146","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:4f4af3e7-d6e2-4d86-a757-e3e909be7146","Experiments on Flowscapes","Bobbink, I. (TU Delft Landscape Architecture)","","2018","For the last five years, graduates within the master track of Landscape Architecture at TU Delft’s Faculty of Architecture and the Built Environment have been working on the theme of “Flowscapes”. In the graduation guide the theme is explained as follows: “Flowscapes, explores infrastructure as a type of landscape and landscape as a type of infrastructure. The hybridization of the two concepts seeks to redefine infrastructure beyond its strictly utilitarian definition, while allowing landscape design to gain operative force in territorial transformation processes. Through focusing on landscape architectonic design of transportation, green and water infrastructures, the studio aims to develop innovative spatial armatures that guide urban and rural development and represent their civic and cultural significance. With movement and flows at the core, landscape infrastructures facilitate aesthetic, functional, social and ecological relationships between natural and human systems. The studio seeks a better understanding of the dynamic between landscape processes and typo-morphological aspects; here interpreted as flowscapes. Flowscapes projects put Landscape Architecture Education Delft at the interface of Urbanism, Architecture, Civil Engineering, Environmental and Spatial Planning.” In this paper the theme will be discussed by comparing two graduation projects situated in two different deltas: “The Haringvlietdam, a beautiful coastal landscape, part of the Rhine-Meuse delta” in the Netherlands and “The Living Estuary, a study to develop landscape spatial adaptive strategies by integrating water, ecosystem and anthropomorphic-dynamics in the estuary of the Volta Delta” in Ghana. The focus of the paper is on the method developed and applied in the graduation work. What do these projects have in common? In what way are they different and what can we learn from them in terms of understanding landscape architecture as an integral design discipline, in relation to the theme of flowscapes? A discipline that relates space to place and uses design as an operative force to steer adaptive and sustainable territorial transformation processes.","Flowscapes; dynamics; integrating natural and human systems; biodiversity; climate change; flooding; a living delta; future resilience","en","conference paper","IFLA","","","","","","","","","","Landscape Architecture","","",""
"uuid:dfe6b957-da18-43b5-9cdc-59a580d38a0b","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:dfe6b957-da18-43b5-9cdc-59a580d38a0b","Coping with the impacts of Urban Heat Islands A literature based study on understanding urban heat vulnerability and the need for resilience in cities in a global climate change context","Leal Filho, W. (Manchester Metropolitan University); Echevarria Icaza, L. (TU Delft OLD Urban Compositions); Neht, A. (Rheinisch-Westfälische Technische Hogeschool); Klavins, M. (University of Latvia); Morgan, E.A. (Griffith University)","","2018","The urban heat island (UHI) is a phenomenon whereby temperature levels in urban areas are higher than in surrounding rural settings. Urban heat islands are a matter of increasing concern, since they can affect communities by exacerbating air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions (due to the greater use of air conditioning) and the occurrence of heat-related illness, and may lead to higher levels of mortality. This paper provides a description of the phenomena of (UHI) and an analysis of how cities are vulnerable to it. It highlights the need for resilience and the variety of means by which the UHI can be tackled. It describes a set of trends in two regions in Germany and Australia, which illustrate the scope of the problem in the northern and southern hemispheres, and the scale of vulnerability. Then, existing UHI vulnerability assessments are analysed to highlight common features and differences. Based on this, we propose a classification of adaptability parameters to support vulnerability assessments. The paper also discusses current mitigation approaches mentioned in the literature, and how these address some vulnerabilities. It concludes that both a better understanding of the UHI phenomena and consideration of the particular context of each city is needed to make urban areas more resilient to UHI.","Urban Heat Island; vulnerability; cities; climate change; mitigatopn; adaption","en","journal article","","","","","","Accepted Author Manuscript","","2019-10-10","","","OLD Urban Compositions","","",""
"uuid:776a2a3d-1e09-459c-8ae3-3cd3fbb3028a","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:776a2a3d-1e09-459c-8ae3-3cd3fbb3028a","The Brisbane Declaration and Global Action Agenda on Environmental Flows (2018)","Arthington, Angela H. (Griffith University); Bhaduri, Anik (Griffith University); Bunn, Stuart E. (Griffith University); Jackson, Sue E. (Griffith University); Tharme, Rebecca E. (Griffith University; Riverfutures Ltd.); Tickner, Dave (World Wildlife Fund); Horne, Avril C. (University of Melbourne); Kendy, Eloise (The Nature Conservancy); McClain, M.E. (TU Delft Water Resources; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education)","","2018","A decade ago, scientists and practitioners working in environmental water management crystallized the progress and direction of environmental flows science, practice, and policy in The Brisbane Declaration and Global Action Agenda (2007), during the 10th International Riversymposium and International Environmental Flows Conference held in Brisbane, Australia. The 2007 Declaration highlights the significance of environmental water allocations for humans and freshwater-dependent ecosystems, and sets out a nine-point global action agenda. This was the first consensus document that bought together the diverse experiences across regions and disciplines, and was significant in setting a common vision and direction for environmental flows internationally. After a decade of uptake and innovation in environmental flows, the 2007 declaration and action agenda was revisited at the 20th International Riversymposium and Environmental Flows Conference, held in Brisbane, Australia, in 2017. The objective was to publicize achievements since 2007 and update the declaration and action agenda to reflect collective progress, innovation, and emerging challenges for environmental flows policy, practice and science worldwide. This paper on The Brisbane Declaration and Global Action Agenda on Environmental Flows (2018) describes the inclusive consultation processes that guided the review of the 2007 document. The 2018 Declaration presents an urgent call for action to protect and restore environmental flows and aquatic ecosystems for their biodiversity, intrinsic values, and ecosystem services, as a central element of integrated water resources management, and as a foundation for achievement of water-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The Global Action Agenda (2018) makes 35 actionable recommendations to guide and support implementation of environmental flows through legislation and regulation, water management programs, and research, linked by partnership arrangements involving diverse stakeholders. An important new element of the Declaration and Action Agenda is the emphasis given to full and equal participation for people of all cultures, and respect for their rights, responsibilities and systems of governance in environmental water decisions. These social and cultural dimensions of e-flow management warrant far more attention. Actionable recommendations present a pathway forward for a new era of scientific research and innovation, shared visions, collaborative implementation programs, and adaptive governance of environmental flows, suited to new social, and environmental contexts driven by planetary pressures, such as human population growth and climate change.","Climate change; Environmental water; Resilience; Social-ecological systems; Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs); The Brisbane Declaration (2007)","en","review","","","","","","","","","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:0b3f181d-2830-4a40-89ad-ac75ebf4684a","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:0b3f181d-2830-4a40-89ad-ac75ebf4684a","Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017","Van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)); Van Der Wiel, Karin (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)); Sebastian, Antonia (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk; Rice University); Singh, Roop (Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre); Arrighi, Julie (Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre); Otto, Friederike (University of Oxford); Haustein, Karsten (University of Oxford); Li, Sihan (University of Oxford); Vecchi, Gabriel (Princeton University); Cullen, Heidi (Climate Central)","","2017","During August 25-30, 2017, Hurricane Harvey stalled over Texas and caused extreme precipitation, particularly over Houston and the surrounding area on August 26-28. This resulted in extensive flooding with over 80 fatalities and large economic costs. It was an extremely rare event: the return period of the highest observed three-day precipitation amount, 1043.4 mm 3dy-1 at Baytown, is more than 9000 years (97.5% one-sided confidence interval) and return periods exceeded 1000 yr (750 mm 3dy-1) over a large area in the current climate. Observations since 1880 over the region show a clear positive trend in the intensity of extreme precipitation of between 12% and 22%, roughly two times the increase of the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere expected for 1 °C warming according to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This would indicate that the moisture flux was increased by both the moisture content and stronger winds or updrafts driven by the heat of condensation of the moisture. We also analysed extreme rainfall in the Houston area in three ensembles of 25 km resolution models. The first also shows 2 × CC scaling, the second 1 × CC scaling and the third did not have a realistic representation of extreme rainfall on the Gulf Coast. Extrapolating these results to the 2017 event, we conclude that global warming made the precipitation about 15% (8%-19%) more intense, or equivalently made such an event three (1.5-5) times more likely. This analysis makes clear that extreme rainfall events along the Gulf Coast are on the rise. And while fortifying Houston to fully withstand the impact of an event as extreme as Hurricane Harvey may not be economically feasible, it is critical that information regarding the increasing risk of extreme rainfall events in general should be part of the discussion about future improvements to Houston's flood protection system.","attribution; climate change; extreme precipitation; tropical cyclone","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk","","",""
"uuid:ee9e2ff4-256b-4ed7-8049-a9ab86820cc8","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:ee9e2ff4-256b-4ed7-8049-a9ab86820cc8","Exploring urban flooding incidence through spatial information: A complementary view to support climate adaptation of lowland cities","Gaitan Sabogal, S. (TU Delft Water Resources)","van de Giesen, N.C. (promotor); ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire (copromotor); Delft University of Technology (degree granting institution)","2017","Cities are vulnerable to local floods due to heavy rainfall. Urban flooding causes damage to buildings and contents, and also disturbs daily city activities as it entails drainage, transportation, and electricity interruptions. Urban flooding is expected to increase as climate change drives heavier rainfall events. Population and assets densification, as well as infrastructure aging, increasingly hamper cities from tackling pluvial flooding. Climate adaptation measures can help cities to face the challenge of heavier weather and urban flooding. Examples of those measures are: smart drainage maintenance and emergency responses, urban climate-proofing and retrofitting, and provision of real-time flooding information to citizens and government officials, among others. To plan and perform such measures it is required to know, and even predict before a heavy storm is onset, where, when, and why urban flooding occurs. This knowledge is not always available though. Required knowledge to design and implement adaptation measures against urban flooding is insufficient in cases such as Amsterdam and Rotterdam. In these cities, urban drainage models are limited to certain districts or uncalibrated; they cannot validly predict where or when the drainage system will surcharge or flood, and thus, they cannot be used for flood damage modeling. Moreover, urban flooding may not only depend on hydraulic parameters of underground drainage systems; other physical and socioeconomic
characteristics of the urban fabric may also influence the flooding likelihood at a particular urban location. Urban flooding can be better understood by using non-hydraulic and unconventional sources of information. Available public data, curated by statistics, cadastral, or municipal call-center services, can provide insights about urban flooding damage. Using mainstream technology, such as web, traffic, and smart-phone cameras, can also afford for valuable data about urban flooding impacts, which contributes to the development of climate adaptation measures in lowland cities. This dissertation aimed to determine the potential of such alternative data sources in better explaining urban flooding incidents. Employed methods combined techniques from geographic information systems, graph theory, community ecology, and computer vision. The exploration done in this research follows three main steps: testing previously proposed models, exploring currently available data sources, and evaluating the usefulness of attainable and affordable technology to gather key, nonexistent data about the timing, location, and extent of urban flooding incidents.","Urban flood modelling; Open spatial data; Data mining; Pattern recognition; Climate change adaptation","en","doctoral thesis","","978-94-6186-877-0","","","","","","","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:9f714d78-e00b-45c3-b163-5cc1544647f3","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:9f714d78-e00b-45c3-b163-5cc1544647f3","Anthropogenic impacts on global organic river pollution","Wen, Y. (TU Delft Water Resources)","van de Giesen, N.C. (promotor); Schoups, G.H.W. (copromotor); Delft University of Technology (degree granting institution)","2017","Organic pollution of rivers by wastewater discharge from human activities negatively impacts people and ecosystems. Without treatment, pollution control relies on a combination of natural degradation and dilution by natural runoff to reduce downstream effects. To implement integrated water management for organic river quality at global scale, a crucial step is to develop a spatial analysis of organic river pollution threats. This thesis provides for the first time a quantitative picture of the global sanitation crisis through its impact on organic river pollution from the threats of (1) increasing wastewater discharge due to urbanization and intensification of livestock farming, and (2) reductions in river dilution capacity due to climate change and water extractions. Using in-stream Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) as an overall indicator of organic river pollution, historical (2000) and future (2050) BOD concentrations in global river networks are calculated. Despite significant self-cleaning capacities of rivers, the number of people affected by organic pollution (BOD È 5 mg/l) is projected to increase from 1.1 billion in 2000 to 2.5 billion in 2050. With developing countries disproportionately affected, the results point to a growing need for affordable wastewater solutions.","Organic river pollution; Global scale; Urbanization; Livestock farming; International trade; Climate change; Water management","en","doctoral thesis","","978-94-6186-869-5","","","","","","","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:c5a0ebb8-d2ce-4fff-ba44-5274940170a2","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:c5a0ebb8-d2ce-4fff-ba44-5274940170a2","A Bayesian-Based System to Assess Wave-Driven Flooding Hazards on Coral Reef-Lined Coasts","Pearson, S.G. (TU Delft Coastal Engineering; Deltares); Storlazzi, C.D. (North Central Climate Science Centre); van Dongeren, A. R. (Deltares); Tissier, M.F.S. (TU Delft Environmental Fluid Mechanics); Reniers, A.J.H.M. (TU Delft Environmental Fluid Mechanics)","","2017","Many low-elevation, coral reef-lined, tropical coasts are vulnerable to the effects of climate change, sea level rise, and wave-induced flooding. The considerable morphological diversity of these coasts and the variability of the hydrodynamic forcing that they are exposed to make predicting wave-induced flooding a challenge. A process-based wave-resolving hydrodynamic model (XBeach Non-Hydrostatic, “XBNH”) was used to create a large synthetic database for use in a “Bayesian Estimator for Wave Attack in Reef Environments” (BEWARE), relating incident hydrodynamics and coral reef geomorphology to coastal flooding hazards on reef-lined coasts. Building on previous work, BEWARE improves system understanding of reef hydrodynamics by examining the intrinsic reef and extrinsic forcing factors controlling runup and flooding on reef-lined coasts. The Bayesian estimator has high predictive skill for the XBNH model outputs that are flooding indicators, and was validated for a number of available field cases. It was found that, in order to accurately predict flooding hazards, water depth over the reef flat, incident wave conditions, and reef flat width are the most essential factors, whereas other factors such as beach slope and bed friction due to the presence or absence of corals are less important. BEWARE is a potentially powerful tool for use in early warning systems or risk assessment studies, and can be used to make projections about how wave-induced flooding on coral reef-lined coasts may change due to climate change.","Bayesian network; climate change; coral reef; flooding; hydrodynamics; reef morphology; wave runup","en","journal article","","","","","","","","2018-08-01","","","Coastal Engineering","","",""
"uuid:12fa5fc7-e2c7-4061-af5a-111142c74203","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:12fa5fc7-e2c7-4061-af5a-111142c74203","A Global Assessment of Runoff Sensitivity to Changes in Precipitation, Potential Evaporation, and Other Factors","Berghuijs, W.R. (TU Delft Water Resources; University of Bristol; ETH Zürich); Larsen, Joshua R. (University of Queensland; University of Lausanne); van Emmerik, T.H.M. (TU Delft Water Resources); Woods, Ross A. (University of Bristol)","","2017","Precipitation (P) and potential evaporation (Ep) are commonly studied drivers of changing freshwater availability, as aridity (Ep/P) explains ∼90% of the spatial differences in mean runoff across the globe. However, it is unclear if changes in aridity over time are also the most important cause for temporal changes in mean runoff and how this degree of importance varies regionally. We show that previous global assessments that address these questions do not properly account for changes due to precipitation, and thereby strongly underestimate the effects of precipitation on runoff. To resolve this shortcoming, we provide an improved Budyko-based global assessment of the relative and absolute sensitivity of precipitation, potential evaporation, and other factors to changes in mean-annual runoff. The absolute elasticity of runoff to potential evaporation changes is always lower than the elasticity to precipitation changes. The global pattern indicates that for 83% of the land grid cells runoff is most sensitive to precipitation changes, while other factors dominate for the remaining 17%. This dominant role of precipitation contradicts previous global assessments, which considered the impacts of aridity changes as a ratio. We highlight that dryland regions generally display high absolute sensitivities of runoff to changes in precipitation, however within dryland regions the relative sensitivity of runoff to changes in other factors (e.g., changing climatic variability, CO2-vegetation feedbacks, and anthropogenic modifications to the landscape) is often far higher. Nonetheless, at the global scale, surface water resources are most sensitive to temporal changes in precipitation.","aridity; Budyko; climate change; precipitation; sensitivity; water resources","en","journal article","","","","","","","","2018-05-01","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:9f18996f-9133-45d5-acaa-78f3eaa51256","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:9f18996f-9133-45d5-acaa-78f3eaa51256","The role of bioenergy in a climate-changing world","Souza, Glaucia Mendes (Universidade de São Paulo); Ballester, Maria Victoria R. (Universidade de São Paulo); de Brito Cruz, Carlos Henrique (University of Campinas); Chum, Helena (National Renewable Energy Laboratory); Dale, Bruce (Michigan State University); Dale, Virginia H. (Oak Ridge National Laboratory); Fernandes, Erick C.M. (The World Bank); Foust, Tom (National Renewable Energy Laboratory); Karp, Angela (Rothamsted Research); Lynd, Lee (Dartmouth College); Osseweijer, P. (TU Delft BT/Biotechnology and Society); van der Wielen, L.A.M. (BE-Basic)","","2017","Bioenergy has been under intense scrutiny over the last ten years with significant research efforts in many countries taking place to define and measure sustainable practices. We describe here the main challenges and policy issues and provide policy recommendations for scaling up sustainable bioenergy approaches globally. The 2016 Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs defined under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change) (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (COP21) will not reach global Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission targets of 2 °C. Sustainable biomass production can make a significant contribution. Substantive evidence exists that many bioenergy cropping systems can bring multiple benefits and off-set environmental problems associated with fossil fuels usage as well as intensive food production and urbanization. We provide evidence that there are many approaches to land use for bioenergy expansion that do not lead to competition for food or other needs. We should focus on how to manage these approaches on a synergistic basis and how to reduce tradeoffs at landscape scales. Priorities include successful synergies between bioenergy and food security (integrated resource management designed to improve both food security and access to bioenergy), investments in technology, rural extension, and innovations that build capacity and infrastructure, promotion of stable prices to incentivize local production and use of double cropping and flex crops (plants grown for both food and non-food markets) that provide food and energy as well as other services. The sustainable production of biomass requires appropriate policies to secure long-term support to improve crop productivity and also to ensure environmental as well as economic and social benefits of bioenergy cropping systems. Continuous support for cropping, infrastructure, agricultural management and related policies is needed to foster positive synergies between food crops and bioenergy production. In comparison to fossil fuels, biofuels have many positive environmental benefits. Potential negative effects caused by land-use change and agriculture intensification can be mitigated by agroecological zoning, best management practices, the use of eco-hydrology and biodiversity-friendly concepts at field, watershed and landscape scales. Global climate and environmental changes related to the use of fossil fuels and inequitable development make it unethical not to pursue more equitable energy development that includes bioenergy. To achieve sustainable development, competitiveness and costs of bioenergy production need to be addressed in a manner that considers not only economic gains but also development of local knowledge and social and environmental benefits.","Bioenergy; Climate Change; Energy security; Environmental security; Food security; Landscapes; Sustainable development","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","BT/Biotechnology and Society","","",""
"uuid:91f2edb0-1309-4b51-87ca-b8054e62cd63","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:91f2edb0-1309-4b51-87ca-b8054e62cd63","The sea-level budget along the Northwest Atlantic coast: GIA, mass changes, and large-scale ocean dynamics","Frederikse, T. (TU Delft Physical and Space Geodesy); Simon, K.M. (TU Delft Physical and Space Geodesy); Katsman, C.A. (TU Delft Environmental Fluid Mechanics); Riva, R.E.M. (TU Delft Physical and Space Geodesy)","","2017","Sea-level rise and decadal variability along the northwestern coast of the North Atlantic Ocean are studied in a self-consistent framework that takes into account the effects of solid-earth deformation and geoid changes due to large-scale mass redistribution processes. Observations of sea and land level changes from tide gauges and GPS are compared to the cumulative effect of GIA, present-day mass redistribution, and ocean dynamics over a 50 year period (1965–2014). GIA explains the majority of the observed sea-level and land motion trends, as well as almost all interstation variability. Present-day mass redistribution resulting from ice melt and land hydrology causes both land uplift and sea-level rise in the region. We find a strong correlation between decadal steric variability in the Subpolar Gyre and coastal sea level, which is likely caused by variability in the Labrador Sea that is propagated southward. The steric signal explains the majority of the observed decadal sea-level variability and shows an upward trend and a significant acceleration, which are also found along the coast. The sum of all contributors explains the observed trends in both sea-level rise and vertical land motion in the region, as well as the decadal variability. The sum of contributors also explains the observed acceleration within confidence intervals. The sea-level acceleration coincides with an accelerating density decrease at high latitudes.","climate change; North Atlantic; sea-level budget; Subpolar Gyre; US East Coast","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Physical and Space Geodesy","","",""
"uuid:01b3e6da-7f41-4174-945c-6e70a901fd21","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:01b3e6da-7f41-4174-945c-6e70a901fd21","Climate change adaptation guidelines for coastal protection and management in India","Black, K.P.; Baba, M.; Kurian, N.P.; Urich, P.; Narayan, B.; Stanley, D.O.; Mathew, J.","National Institute of Oceanography, Goa; Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi; Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune; Indian Institute of Technology, Mumbai","2017","A general overview publication how to prepare the Indian coastline for climate change. The key document is Volume 1: “Climate Change Adaptation Guidelines for Coastal Protection and Management in India”. The Guidelines document (Volume I) is self-contained, with adequate information to understand the Guidelines and put them into practice. It is supported by appendices provided in Volume II for users wanting to take a more in-depth approach. The appendices are designed for specialized training, selection of coastal protection measures, and as a tool to help practitioners use the information from this study. Teachers may find that the appendices could form the basis for academic lessons. Some users may be unable to comprehend the equations and physics of coasts and waves, while others may show strong interest in economics or beach dynamics, and thus the various topics are dealt with in separate appendices. These Guidelines are part of the Climate Resilient Coastal Protection and Management Project, which also contains other components, such as case studies, pilot subprojects, and capacity building. The case studies are selected to help formulate the Guidelines. The pilot subprojects provide real examples of a recommended solution for the future management of the shoreline. Capacity building program is designed from the Guidelines with compatible information. The outputs have been passed on to the Central Water and Power Research Station and other relevant departments for ownership. The Guidelines are vetted by a panel of experts from all coastal states, coastal zone management authorities, specialists from Indian research institutes, implementing agencies of the project, and the National Technical Committee (created for this purpose) represented by the concerned ministries.","coastal flooding; climate change; India; coastal protection","en","report","prepared by FCG ANZDEC (New Zealand) for the Global Environment Facility and Asian Development Bank","","","","","","","","","","","","Climate Resilient Coastal",""
"uuid:270b3cd3-da79-4a0f-b0ec-e60098cee1c7","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:270b3cd3-da79-4a0f-b0ec-e60098cee1c7","Measuring Tree Properties and Responses Using Low-Cost Accelerometers","van Emmerik, T.H.M. (TU Delft Water Resources); Steele-Dunne, S.C. (TU Delft Water Resources); Hut, R.W. (TU Delft Water Resources); Gentine, Pierre; Guerin, Marceau; Oliveira, Rafael; Wagner, Jim; Selker, John; van de Giesen, N.C. (TU Delft Water Resources)","","2017","Trees play a crucial role in the water, carbon and nitrogen cycle on local, regional and global scales. Understanding the exchange of momentum, heat, water, and CO 2 between trees and the atmosphere is important to assess the impact of drought, deforestation and climate change. Unfortunately, ground measurements of tree properties such as mass and canopy interception of precipitation are often expensive or difficult due to challenging environments. This paper aims to demonstrate the concept of using robust and affordable accelerometers to measure tree properties and responses. Tree sway is dependent on mass, canopy structure, drag coefficient, and wind forcing. By measuring tree acceleration, we can relate the tree motion to external forcing (e.g., wind, precipitation and related canopy interception) and tree physical properties (e.g., mass, elasticity). Using five months of acceleration data of 19 trees in the Brazilian Amazon, we show that the frequency spectrum of tree sway is related to mass, canopy interception of precipitation, and canopy–atmosphere turbulent exchange.","hydrology; tree physiology; tree sway; water stress; wind; canopy; Amazon; drag coefficient; climate change; turbulence; interceprtion","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:0633ddf4-1b3f-4e64-871c-a831484af159","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:0633ddf4-1b3f-4e64-871c-a831484af159","The economy-wide impacts of climate change and irrigation development in the Nile Basin: A computable general equilibrium approach","Kahsay, Tewodros Negash (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education); Kuik, Onno (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Brouwer, Roy (University of Waterloo); van der Zaag, P. (TU Delft Water Resources; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education)","","2017","A multi-country, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is employed to evaluate the economy-wide impacts of climate change under the IPCC's A2 and B1 scenarios and existing irrigation development plans in the Nile basin. The study reveals that climate change adversely affects mainly downstream Egypt and to a lesser extent Sudan, while it results in a limited impact in the upstream countries Ethiopia and the Equatorial Lakes region, where irrigated agriculture is still limited. The economic consequences for Egypt are especially substantial if the river basin countries pursue a unilateral irrigation development strategy. In order to prevent water use conflicts and ease water scarcity conditions, a cooperative water development strategy is needed as well as economic diversification in favor of less water-intensive sectors, combined with investments in water-saving infrastructure and improved irrigation efficiency.","climate change; Computable general equilibrium; irrigation development; Nile River Basin","en","journal article","","","","","","","","2018-03-01","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:7485b8ad-848a-4d40-9153-928205045a22","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:7485b8ad-848a-4d40-9153-928205045a22","Mitigating the Climate Impact from Aviation: Achievements and Results of the DLR WeCare Project","Grewe, V. (TU Delft Aircraft Noise and Climate Effects; Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Dahlmann, K. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Flink, J. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Frömming, C. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Ghosh, R. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Gierens, K. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Heller, R (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Hendricks, J. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Jockel, P. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Kaufmann, S. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Kölker, K. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Linke, F. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Luchkova, T. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Lührs, B. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); van Manen, Jesper (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Matthes, S (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Minikin, A. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Niklaß, Malte (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Plohr, M. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Righi, M. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Rosanka, S. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Schmitt, A (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Schumann, U (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Terekhov, I. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Unterstrasser, S. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Vázquez-Navarro, M. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Voigt, C. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Wicke, K. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Yamashita, H. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Zahn, A. (Karlsruhe Institut für Technologie); Ziereis, H. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR))","","2017","The WeCare project (Utilizing Weather information for Climate efficient and eco efficient future aviation), an internal project of the German Aerospace Center (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, DLR), aimed at finding solutions for reducing the climate impact of aviation based on an improved understanding of the atmospheric impact from aviation by making use of measurements and modeling approaches. WeCare made some important contributions to advance the scientific understanding in the area of atmospheric and air transportation research. We characterize contrail properties, show that the aircraft type significantly influences these properties, and how contrail-cirrus interacts with natural cirrus. Aviation NOx emissions lead to ozone formation and we show that the strength of the ozone enhancement varies, depending on where within a weather pattern NOx is emitted. These results, in combination with results on the effects of aerosol emissions on low cloud properties, give a revised view on the total radiative forcing of aviation. The assessment of a fleet of strut-braced wing aircraft with an open rotor is investigated and reveals the potential to significantly reduce the climate impact. Intermediate stop operations have the potential to significantly reduce fuel consumption. However, we find that, if only optimized for fuel use, they will have an increased climate impact, since non-CO2 effects compensate the reduced warming from CO2 savings. Avoiding climate sensitive regions has a large potential in reducing climate impact at relatively low costs. Taking advantage of a full 3D optimization has a much better eco-efficiency than lateral re-routings, only. The implementation of such operational measures requires many more considerations. Non-CO2 aviation effects are not considered in international agreements. We showed that climate-optimal routing could be achieved, if market-based measures were in place, which include these non-CO2 effects. An alternative measure to foster climate-optimal routing is the closing of air spaces, which are very climate-sensitive. Although less effective than an unconstrained optimization with respect to climate, it still has a significant potential to reduce the climate impact of aviation. By combining atmospheric and air transportation research, we assess climate mitigation measures, aiming at providing information to aviation stakeholders and policy-makers to make aviation more climate compatible.","aviation emission; contrails; nitrogen oxides; aerosols; climate change; climate mitigation; strut-braced wing; open rotor; intermediate stop operations; climate sensitive regions; contrail avoidance","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Aircraft Noise and Climate Effects","","",""
"uuid:9b272aed-b9e4-41ba-b1c7-aabee89c9b79","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:9b272aed-b9e4-41ba-b1c7-aabee89c9b79","Quantifying the climate impact of emissions from land-based transport in Germany","Hendricks, J. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Righi, M. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Dahlmann, K. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Gottschaldt, K.-D. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Grewe, V. (TU Delft Aircraft Noise and Climate Effects; Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Ponater, M. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Sausen, R. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Heinrichs, D. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Winkler, C. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Wolfermann, A. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR); Technische Universität Darmstadt); Kampffmeyer, T. (University of Stuttgart; Statistisches Landesamt Baden-Württemberg); Friedrich, R (University of Stuttgart); Klötzke, M. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Kugler, U. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR))","","2017","Although climate change is a global problem, specific mitigation measures are frequently applied on regional or national scales only. This is the case in particular for measures to reduce the emissions of land-based transport, which is largely characterized by regional or national systems with independent infrastructure, organization, and regulation. The climate perturbations caused by regional transport emissions are small compared to those resulting from global emissions. Consequently, they can be smaller than the detection limits in global three-dimensional chemistry-climate model simulations, hampering the evaluation of the climate benefit of mitigation strategies. Hence, we developed a new approach to solve this problem. The approach is based on a combination of a detailed three-dimensional global chemistry-climate model system, aerosol-climate response functions, and a zero-dimensional climate response model. For demonstration purposes, the approach was applied to results from a transport and emission modeling suite, which was designed to quantify the present-day and possible future transport activities in Germany and the resulting emissions. The results show that, in a baseline scenario, German transport emissions result in an increase in global mean surface temperature of the order of 0.01 K during the 21st century. This effect is dominated by the CO2 emissions, in contrast to the impact of global transport emissions, where non-CO2 species make a larger relative contribution to transport-induced climate change than in the case of German emissions. Our new approach is ready for operational use to evaluate the climate benefit of mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of transport emissions.","Regional transport; Emissions; Climate change; Climate modeling; Transport modeling; German transport system","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Aircraft Noise and Climate Effects","","",""
"uuid:fb68ecf3-7b7e-4c3f-b20b-260f1832c89c","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:fb68ecf3-7b7e-4c3f-b20b-260f1832c89c","Incorporating Air Quality Improvement at a Local Level into Climate Policy in the Transport Sector: A Case Study in Bandung City, Indonesia.","Gunawan, Helmi (University of Twente); Bressers, Hans (University of Twente); Mohlakoana, Nthabi (University of Twente); Hoppe, T. (TU Delft Organisation & Governance)","","2017","Climate policy has a strong influence on policy processes at national levels in Indonesia, while other policies with a focus on air quality improvement are being implemented at local levels. Indonesia as a developing country has committed to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 29 percent by the year 2030. This calls into question the extent to which cities and local governments can cope with the challenges of climate change mitigation. The purpose of the research is to find out the extent to which local air pollution reduction policies can contribute to the climate change mitigation program. The research design involved an empirical case study on governance and policy
relevant to climate change efforts to lower GHG in Bandung City, Indonesia. The study evaluated the air quality improvement and the climate change mitigation programs using the actor-based framework of the Contextual Interaction Theory (CIT). The governance and stakeholder characteristic of climate change mitigation were also analysed using the structural context part of the CIT framework. The result shows that air quality improvement policy is implemented separately from climate policy; the latter operates at the national level and the former at the local level. By looking at the actor interaction analysis, the study concludes that a more holistic environmental policy approach would be more efficient at reducing local air pollution and contributing to the mitigation of climate change.","air quality improvement; climate change mitigation; local government; contextual interaction theory; co-benefit goals","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Organisation & Governance","","",""
"uuid:08d2f58d-fe88-4a7e-acb9-d19eeb2b8fa4","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:08d2f58d-fe88-4a7e-acb9-d19eeb2b8fa4","On Effectiveness and Legitimacy of ‘Shaming’ as a Strategy for Combatting Climate Change","Taebi, B. (TU Delft Ethics & Philosophy of Technology; John F. Kennedy School of Government); Safari, Azar (Universiteit Leiden)","","2017","While states have agreed to substantial reduction of emissions in the Paris Agreement, the success of the Agreement strongly depends on the cooperation of large Multinational Corporations. Short of legal obligations, we discuss the effectiveness and moral legitimacy of voluntary approaches based on naming and shaming. We argue that effectiveness and legitimacy are closely tied together; as voluntary approaches are the only alternative to legally imposed duties, they are most morally defensible particularly if they would be the most effective in reducing the harmful greenhouse gases. Shaming could be made effective if states could prompt more corporations to accept voluntary cuts with high gains—such as public acknowledgements—and high losses, such as reporting on noncompliance and public exposure (naming), along with some kind of condemnation (shaming). An important challenge of such voluntary approaches is how to ensure compliance with the agreed upon commitments, while avoiding greenwashing or selective disclosure. Certain institutional arrangements are inevitable, including an independent measurement, monitoring and verification mechanism. In this paper, we discuss the potentials and ethical pitfalls of shaming as a strategy when corporations have a direct relationship with consumers, but also when they are in a relationship with governments and other corporations.","Climate change; Corporate social responsibility; Environmental management; INDC; Multinational corporations; Naming and shaming","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Ethics & Philosophy of Technology","","",""
"uuid:7223f124-6816-4af2-8e2f-7eb7fea48896","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:7223f124-6816-4af2-8e2f-7eb7fea48896","Prospective techno-economic and environmental assessment of carbon capture at a refinery and CO2 utilisation in polyol synthesis","Fernandez Dacosta, C. (Universiteit Utrecht); Van Der Spek, Mijndert (Universiteit Utrecht); Hung, Christine Roxanne (Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)); Oregionni, Gabriel David (Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)); Skagestad, Ragnhild (Tel-Tek); Parihar, Prashant (Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited); Gokak, D. T. (Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited); Strømman, Anders Hammer (Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)); Ramirez, Andrea (TU Delft Energie and Industrie; Universiteit Utrecht)","","2017","CO2 utilisation is gaining interest as a potential element towards a sustainable economy. CO2 can be used as feedstock in the synthesis of fuels, chemicals and polymers. This study presents a prospective assessment of carbon capture from a hydrogen unit at a refinery, where the CO2 is either stored, or partly stored and partly utilised for polyols production. A methodology integrating technical, economic and environmental models with uncertainty analysis is used to assess the performance of carbon capture and storage or utilisation at the refinery. Results show that only 10% of the CO2 captured from an industrial hydrogen unit can be utilised in a commercial-scale polyol plant. This option has limited potential for large scale CO2 mitigation from industrial sources. However, CO2 capture from a hydrogen unit and its utilisation for the synthesis of polyols provides an interesting alternative from an economic perspective. The costs of CO2-based polyol are estimated at 1200 €/t polyol, 16% lower than those of conventional polyol. Furthermore, the costs of storing the remaining CO2 are offset by the benefits of cheaper polyol production. Therefore, the combination of CO2 capture and partial utilisation provides an improved business case over capture and storage alone. The environmental assessment shows that the climate change potential of this CO2 utilisation system is 23% lower compared to a reference case in which no CO2 is captured at the refinery. Five other environmental impact categories included in this study present slightly better performance for the utilisation case than for the reference case.","Abbreviations BEC bare erected cost; CC climate change; CCS carbon capture and storage; CCS/U carbon capture storage and utilisation; CCU carbon capture and utilisation; CCUS carbon capture utilization and storage; cPC cyclic propylene carbonate; DMC double metal cyanide; EDD environmental due diligence; EDDiCCUT Environmental Due Diligence of novel CO Capture and Utilization Technologies; EPCC engineering, procurement and construction costs; FD fossil depletion; FE freshwater eutrophication; FU functional unit; G glycerol; HP high pressure; HT human toxicity; LCA life cycle assessment; LCI life cycle inventory; LCOE levelised cost of electricity; LCOP levelised cost of product; LHV lower heating value; LP low pressure; MDEA methyl diethanolamine; MPG monopropylene glycol; NMVOC non-methane volatile organic carbon; PBP payback period; PEC purchased equipment costs; PMF particulate matter formation; PO propylene oxide; POF photochemical oxidant formation; PP polyether polyol; PPC polyethercarbonate polyol; PSA pressure swing adsorption; PU polyurethane; R&D research & development; REF reference case; SA system area; TA terrestrial acidification; WGS water gas shift","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Energie and Industrie","","",""
"uuid:d588be69-fe96-4848-b6e1-7538e8711797","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d588be69-fe96-4848-b6e1-7538e8711797","Conceptual models for short-eccentricity-scale climate control on peat formation in a lower Palaeocene fluvial system, north-eastern Montana (USA)","Noorbergen, Lars J. (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Abels, H.A. (TU Delft Applied Geology); Hilgen, Frederik J. (Universiteit Utrecht); Robson, Brittany E. (Royal Holloway University of London); de Jong, Edwin (Universiteit Utrecht); Dekkers, Mark J. (Universiteit Utrecht); Krijgsman, Wout (Universiteit Utrecht); Smit, Jan (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Collinson, Margaret E. (Royal Holloway University of London); Kuiper, Klaudia F. (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)","","2017","Fluvial systems in which peat formation occurs are typified by autogenic processes such as river meandering, crevasse splaying and channel avulsion. Nevertheless, autogenic processes cannot satisfactorily explain the repetitive nature and lateral continuity of many coal seams (compacted peats). The fluvial lower Palaeocene Tullock Member of the Fort Union Formation (Western Interior Williston Basin; Montana, USA) contains lignite rank coal seams that are traceable over distances of several kilometres. This sequence is used to test the hypothesis that peat formation in the fluvial system was controlled by orbitally forced climate change interacting with autogenic processes. Major successions are documented with an average thickness of 6·8 m consisting of ca 6 m thick intervals of channel and overbank deposits overlain by ca 1 m thick coal seam units. These major coal seams locally split and merge. Time-stratigraphic correlation, using a Cretaceous-Palaeogene boundary event horizon, several distinctive volcanic ash-fall layers, and the C29r/C29n magnetic polarity reversal, shows consistent lateral recurrence of seven successive major successions along a 10 km wide fence panel perpendicular to east/south-east palaeo-flow. The stratigraphic pattern, complemented by stratigraphic age control and cyclostratigraphic tests, suggests that the major peat-forming phases, resulting in major coal seams, were driven by 100 kyr eccentricity-related climate cycles. Two distinct conceptual models were developed, both based on the hypothesis that the major peat-forming phases ended when enhanced seasonal contrast, at times of minimum precession during increasing eccentricity, intensified mire degradation and flooding. In model 1, orbitally forced climate change controls the timing of peat compaction, leading to enhancement of autogenic channel avulsions. In model 2, orbitally forced climate change controls upstream sediment supply and clastic influx determining the persistence of peat-forming conditions. At the scale of the major successions, model 2 is supported because interfingering channel sandstones do not interrupt lateral continuity of major coal seams.","Conceptual model; Fluvial system; Lignite rank coal; North-eastern Montana; Orbitally forced climate change; Palaeocene; Peat formation; Time-stratigraphic correlation","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Applied Geology","","",""
"uuid:aa951c86-2220-4cf1-a987-c90ff19693d2","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:aa951c86-2220-4cf1-a987-c90ff19693d2","The impact of future sea-level rise on the global tides","Pickering, M.D. (University of Southhampton); Horsburgh, K.J. (National Oceanography Center, Joseph Proudman Building, Liverpool); Blundell, J.R. (University of Southhampton); Hirschi, J.J.-M. (University of Southhampton); Nicholls, Robert J. (University of Southampton); Verlaan, M. (TU Delft Mathematical Physics; Deltares); Wells, N.C. (University of Southampton)","","2017","Tides are a key component in coastal extreme water levels. Possible changes in the tides caused by mean sea-level rise (SLR) are therefore of importance in the analysis of coastal flooding, as well as many other applications. We investigate the effect of future SLR on the tides globally using a fully global forward tidal model: OTISmpi. Statistical comparisons of the modelled and observed tidal solutions demonstrate the skill of the refined model setup with no reliance on data assimilation. We simulate the response of the four primary tidal constituents to various SLR scenarios. Particular attention is paid to future changes at the largest 136 coastal cities, where changes in water level would have the greatest impact. Spatially uniform SLR scenarios ranging from 0.5 to 10 m with fixed coastlines show that the tidal amplitudes in shelf seas globally respond strongly to SLR with spatially coherent areas of increase and decrease. Changes in the M2 and S2 constituents occur globally in most shelf seas, whereas changes in K1 and O1 are confined to Asian shelves. With higher SLR tidal changes are often not proportional to the SLR imposed and larger portions of mean high water (MHW) changes are above proportional. Changes in MHW exceed ±10% of the SLR at ~10% of coastal cities. SLR scenarios allowing for coastal recession tend increasingly to result in a reduction in tidal range. The fact that the fixed and recession shoreline scenarios result mainly in changes of opposing sign is explained by the effect of the perturbations on the natural period of oscillation of the basin. Our results suggest that coastal management strategies could influence the sign of the tidal amplitude change. The effect of a spatially varying SLR, in this case fingerprints of the initial elastic response to ice mass loss, modestly alters the tidal response with the largest differences at high latitudes.","Barotropic tides; Climatic changes; Flood forecasting; Sea level rise; Tidal change; Tidal power","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Mathematical Physics","","",""
"uuid:cee6e939-dd5e-4b3f-9668-b3b15ced9ac3","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:cee6e939-dd5e-4b3f-9668-b3b15ced9ac3","Policy preferences and the diversity of instrument choice for mitigating climate change impacts in the transport sector","Stead, D. (TU Delft Spatial Planning and Strategy)","","2017","Different policy approaches and responses to common environmental challenges, such as climate change, exist between countries, and sometimes even within countries. This situation arises because public policy-makers are not only driven by concerns of theoretical purity but are also influenced by a range of social, political, economic, cultural and administrative matters when selecting techniques or instruments to achieve specific policy goals. This article examines whether the diversity of stated policy instruments to tackle climate change mitigation in the transport sector can be explained according to national policy preferences in a European context. It also investigates whether the mix of national climate change policy instruments for transport exhibits temporal stability, even after national changes in political power. To do so, the article reviews a series of national policy documents that address climate change in the transport sector in four European countries with contrasting administrative traditions – France, Germany, Sweden and the United Kingdom.","policy instruments; climate change; mitigation; transport; Europe","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Spatial Planning and Strategy","","",""
"uuid:f85e2c4d-132f-4bdc-9559-767eb58b3539","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:f85e2c4d-132f-4bdc-9559-767eb58b3539","Boundary spanning for governance of climate change adaptation in cities: Insights from a Dutch urban region","Dabrowski, M.M. (TU Delft Spatial Planning and Strategy)","","2017","Adapting to climate change in the urban setting requires cooperation across scales, levels of government, organisational boundaries and policy sectors. The study presented in the paper explores governance of urban adaptation policies through the conceptual lens of multi-level governance and boundary spanning. It focuses on the South Wing of the Randstad in The Netherlands, an urban region that is heavily exposed to the negative impacts of climate change, particularly to flooding, due to its location in the Rhine-Meuse delta and concentration of population and economic activity. Yet, it is also a region with strong traditions of cooperation and a track record of pioneering urban climate change measures. The study investigates how the features of the wider institutional context, in which this urban region operates shape the governance of urban adaptation policies and how the contextual factors constrain the scope for spanning horizontal, vertical and temporal boundaries needed for delivering those policies and making the cities of that region more climate-proof.","Climate change adaptation; urban regions; multi-level governance; boundary spanning; flood risk","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Spatial Planning and Strategy","","",""
"uuid:79d39257-875f-4c27-9d85-e6724b1cd0f4","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:79d39257-875f-4c27-9d85-e6724b1cd0f4","An Evidence-Based Review of Impacts, Strategies and Tools to Mitigate Urban Heat Islands","Leal Filho, Walter (Hamburg University of Applied Sciences; Manchester Metropolitan University); Echevarria Icaza, L. (TU Delft OLD Urban Compositions); Omeche Emanche, Victoria (Hamburg University of Applied Sciences); Quasem Al-Amin, Abul (Universiti Tenaga Nasional)","","2017","The impacts of climate changes on cities, which are home to over half of the world’s population, are already being felt. In many cases, the intensive speed with which urban centres have been growing means that little attention has been paid to the role played by climatic factors in maintaining quality of life. Among the negative consequences of rapid city growth is the expansion of the problems posed by urban heat islands (UHIs), defined as areas in a city that are much warmer than other sites, especially in comparison with rural areas. This paper analyses the consistency of the UHI-related literature in three stages: first it outlines its characteristics and impacts in a wide variety of cities around the world, which poses pressures to public health in many different countries. Then it introduces strategies which may be employed in order to reduce its effects, and finally it analyses available tools to systematize the initial high level assessment of the phenomenon for multidisciplinary teams involved in the urban planning process. The analysis of literature on the characteristics, impacts, strategies and digital tools to assess on the UHI, reveals the wide variety of parameters, methods, tools and strategies analysed and suggested in the different studies, which does not always allow to compare or standardize the diagnosis or solutions","climate change; urban heat islands; cities-urban; health models; OA-Fund TU Delft","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","OLD Urban Compositions","","",""
"uuid:54dfb805-2a72-4572-af1f-c9d9dfaa1618","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:54dfb805-2a72-4572-af1f-c9d9dfaa1618","Meltwater produced by wind–albedo interaction stored in an East Antarctic ice shelf","Lenaerts, JTM (Universiteit Utrecht; Katholieke Universiteit Leuven); Lhermitte, S.L.M. (TU Delft Mathematical Geodesy and Positioning); Drews, R. (Vrije Universiteit Brussel); Ligtenberg, SRM (Universiteit Utrecht); Berger, S. (Vrije Universiteit Brussel); Helm, V. (Alfred Wegener Institute); Smeets, C.J.P.P. (Universiteit Utrecht); van den Broeke, MR (Universiteit Utrecht); van de Berg, W.J. (Universiteit Utrecht); van Meijgaard, E (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)); Eijkelboom, M. (Universiteit Utrecht); Eisen, O. (Alfred Wegener Institute; University of Bremen); Pattyn, F. (Vrije Universiteit Brussel)","","2017","Surface melt and subsequent firn air depletion can ultimately lead to disintegration of Antarctic ice shelves1, 2 causing grounded glaciers to accelerate3 and sea level to rise. In the Antarctic Peninsula, foehn winds enhance melting near the grounding line4, which in the recent past has led to the disintegration of the most northerly ice shelves5, 6. Here, we provide observational and model evidence that this process also occurs over an East Antarctic ice shelf, where meltwater-induced firn air depletion is found in the grounding zone. Unlike the Antarctic Peninsula, where foehn events originate from episodic interaction of the circumpolar westerlies with the topography, in coastal East Antarctica high temperatures are caused by persistent katabatic winds originating from the ice sheet’s interior. Katabatic winds warm and mix the air as it flows downward and cause widespread snow erosion, explaining >3 K higher near-surface temperatures in summer and surface melt doubling in the grounding zone compared with its surroundings. Additionally, these winds expose blue ice and firn with lower surface albedo, further enhancing melt. The in situ observation of supraglacial flow and englacial storage of meltwater suggests that ice-shelf grounding zones in East Antarctica, like their Antarctic Peninsula counterparts, are vulnerable to hydrofracturing","Atmospheric science; Climate change; Cryospheric science","en","journal article","","","","","","","","2017-08-01","","","Mathematical Geodesy and Positioning","","",""
"uuid:bce0c39e-ce68-49c7-aaca-8a2aedee210b","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:bce0c39e-ce68-49c7-aaca-8a2aedee210b","Teaching sustainability to a broad audience through an entertainment game – The effect of Catan: Oil Springs","Chappin, E.J.L. (TU Delft Energie and Industrie); Bijvoet, Xanna; Oei, A. (TU Delft Organisation & Governance)","","2017","In order to attain a truly sustainable society it is necessary for people to make ‘the sustainable choice’ in daily life, business and governance. Instrumental in increasing the awareness and understanding about sustainability issues and improving people's behaviour regarding sustainability issues is sustainability education. However, sustainability education is not yet widespread and is found to not always be effective in tackling people's behavioural aspects regarding sustainability issues. This paper addresses a novel form of sustainability education that has potentially both a wide reach and tackles behavioural aspects of sustainability issues directly: serious gaming. It is shown how an entertainment game, a scenario expansion for the popular board-game Settlers of Catan, can be used to educate a broad audience on sustainability issues. Through a causal analysis of the educational mechanisms embedded in the game scenario the strategies that players might use were found. Subsequently, workshops were held to observe how players are affected by playing the game. The results suggest that playing the game affects people's attitude towards sustainability and, predominantly, the sustainability of the behaviour. Although only the second finding could be supported by statistical tests, the anecdotal observations and quantitative findings do point in the same direction. It was found that the sustainability concepts embedded in the game together with the gameplay dynamics drove the educational effects of the game. These game dynamics enable players to experience real sustainability issues: players are forced to reconsider their strategies, not necessarily to save the Island of Catan, but for their own victory in the game – which is a strong lesson related to sustainability in general and climate change specifically. Future research should focus on conducting larger-scale surveys supporting the execution of statistical tests. In addition, this research points at the untapped potential of teaching sustainability concepts through entertainment games and suggests that game developers incorporate sustainability concepts through educational mechanisms in their games.","Behavioural change; Climate change awareness; Education; Entertainment game; Serious gaming; Sustainability","en","journal article","","","","","","","","2019-04-19","","","Energie and Industrie","","",""
"uuid:8ffc731d-d812-47a5-9c2e-5e88be6e45ba","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:8ffc731d-d812-47a5-9c2e-5e88be6e45ba","Model Predictive Control of Salinity in a Polder Ditch under High Saline Groundwater Exfiltration Conditions: A Test Case","Aydin, B.E. (TU Delft Water Resources); Rutten, M.M. (TU Delft Water Resources); Abraham, E. (TU Delft Water Resources); Oude Essink, GHP (Deltares); Delsman, Joost (Deltares)","Dochain, D. (editor); Henrion, D. (editor); Peaucelle, D. (editor)","2017","Surface water salinization in deltaic areas due to saline groundwater exfiltration is an important issue. Saline surface water will not be appropriate for drinking water production, agricultural and industrial use, and therefore, freshwater diverted from rivers is used for flushing the canals and ditches in coastal areas. The effects of climate change, sea level increase and fresh water availability increases the stress on deltaic areas resulting in questioning current fresh water management strategies. In this paper, a Model Predictive Control (MPC) scheme is developed and tested for combined salinity and water level control of a polder ditch. The MPC scheme is coupled with Rapid Saline Groundwater Exfiltration Model (RSGEM) developed for fast calculation of exfiltration flux and concentration in a low-lying polder. For the test case presented in this paper, real data from Lissertocht catchment in Netherlands is used for RSGEM to see the performance of the MPC scheme for a real scenario. With open space for further research, results presented on this paper show that MPC of salinity in polders is capable of dealing with saline groundwater exfiltration modeled by RSGEM.","adaptation measures; Climate change impact; Hydroinformatics; control; identification of environmental systems; Modeling; quantity management; Real-time control of environmental systems; Water prediction; Water quality","en","conference paper","Elsevier","","","","","","","","","","Water Resources","","",""
"uuid:3974e497-f3d9-4187-a7a0-63832004c8c6","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:3974e497-f3d9-4187-a7a0-63832004c8c6","Quantifying the impact of adverse weather conditions on road network performance","Snelder, M.; Calvert, S.C.","","2016","Adverse weather conditions regularly lead to severe congestion and large travel time delays on road networks all over the world. Different climate scenarios indicate that in the future adverse weather conditions are likely to become more frequent, last longer and will be more extreme. Although climate mitigation measures are being taken, it remains important to investigate how adverse weather events will affect the performance of the road network in the future. The main objective of this paper is to give an overview of how the impact of adverse weather conditions and adaptation measures on road network performance can be quantified. A literature review has been performed to show what is empirically known about the impact of adverse weather conditions on the road network performance. Furthermore, available methods to quantify the impact of adverse weather conditions and adaptation measures on the road network performance for future situations are reviewed. As an example, a case study for the municipality of Rotterdam has been carried out that shows how a combination of models can be used to analyse which links in the road network are most vulnerable for increasingly severe local weather related disturbances. The results of the case study allow local authorities to decide whether or not they need to take adaptation measures.","weather disturbances; extreme weather; climate change; road network; vulnerable locations","en","journal article","Delft University of Technology, Transport and Logistics Group","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"uuid:29afd98d-4ff4-497f-8e22-e6b2b9d7fd6d","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:29afd98d-4ff4-497f-8e22-e6b2b9d7fd6d","Using satellite imagery analysis to classify and redesign provincial parks for a better cooling effect on cities: The case study of South Holland","Echevarria Icaza, L. (TU Delft OLD Urban Compositions); van den Dobbelsteen, A.A.J.F. (TU Delft Architectural Engineering +Technology); van der Hoeven, F.D. (TU Delft OLD Urban Design; TU Delft 100% Research)","","2016","The purpose of this research is to analyse the thermal behaviour of South Holland provincial parks during heat waves, in order to provide design adaptation guidelines to increase their cooling capacity over the hotspots present in their urban surroundings. This research analyses the thermal behaviour of different land use patches (forests, cropland, grassland, water surfaces, built areas and greenhouse areas) present in the six South Holland provincial parks during heat waves. It studies their average night land surface temperature (LST) (with Modis 11A1), day LST (with Landsat 5TM), NDVI, imperviousness, patch size and patch shape index, and analyses through a multiple regression analysis the impact of each of these last four parameters in the night and day LST for each land use. Within each land use category, NDVI, imperviousness and patch shape index influence differently the thermal behaviour of the patches. NDVI is inversely correlated to day LST for all categories, imperviousness is correlated to day LST for all areas which do not comprise a significant presence of greenhouses (grassland and built patches) and inversely correlated to LST for areas with a high presence of greenhouses (cropland and warehouses). Finally the shape index varies depending on the nature of the surrounding patches, especially for small patches (built areas, forests and greenhouse areas). Most of the hotspots surrounding the Midden-Delfland park are adjacent to grassland patches. The measure to increase the cooling capacity of those patches would consist in a change of land use and or an increase of the NDVI of the existing grassland patches. These suggestions to increase the cooling potential of the parks remain deliberately open in order to allow combining these measures with other spatial planning priorities.","urbanism; remote sensing; GIS; urban heat island; cooling effect; climate change adaptation; landscape design","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","Architectural Engineering +Technology","OLD Urban Compositions","","",""
"uuid:9d479423-a0de-4715-ab2b-d5c495e47960","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:9d479423-a0de-4715-ab2b-d5c495e47960","Policy Instruments to Improve Energy Performance of Existing Owner Occupied Dwellings","Murphy, L.C. (TU Delft OLD Housing Quality and Process Innovation)","Visscher, H.J. (promotor); Meijer, F.M. (copromotor); Delft University of Technology (degree granting institution)","2016","The aim of this thesis is to add knowledge to the role and impact of policy instruments in meeting energy performance ambition in the existing owner occupied housing stock. The focus was instruments available in the Netherlands in 2011 and 2012. These instruments represented the 'on the ground' efforts to meet climate change targets.","policy instruments; climate change","en","doctoral thesis","","978-94-92516-18-3","","","","","","","","","OLD Housing Quality and Process Innovation","","",""
"uuid:91b508ea-a075-4ff8-9baf-e292cfac6ca1","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:91b508ea-a075-4ff8-9baf-e292cfac6ca1","Observations and analytical modeling of freshwater and rainwater lenses in coastal dune systems","Stuyfzand, Pieter Jan (TU Delft Geo-engineering; KWR Water Research Institute)","","2016","Observations are reported on (i) groundwater recharge rates under various types of vegetation as measured with megalysimeters in the dunes, (ii) freshwater lenses along the Dutch North Sea coast in the early 1900s, and (iii) rainwater lenses that develop on top of laterally migrating, artificially recharged riverwater. Subsequently analytical methods are presented to estimate annual natural groundwater recharge as function of rainfall and vegetation, and to calculate the size, shape and transition zone of freshwater lenses on saline groundwater and rainwater lenses on infiltrated riverwater. An empirical correction factor, based on the hydraulic resistance of an aquitard within the freshwater lens, is proposed to account for the frequently observed reduction of the Ghyben-Herzberg ratio of 40. This factor raises the groundwater table, reduces the depth of the fresh/salt interface and increases the lens formation time. The suite of methods offers a tool box for knowledge based water management of dune systems, by rapidly predicting: (i) more or less autonomous changes due to sealevel rise, climate change and vegetation development; and (ii) the potential (side) effects of interventions. Knowing what happened or will happen to the fresh water lens or a rainwater lens is important, because changes impact on important natural habitat parameters such as salinity, depth to groundwater table, decalcification rate (and thus on pH, Ca/Al, PO4, NH4) and nutrient availability, and on drinking water supply. The analytical models are applied to predict effects of sealevel rise, coastal progradation, vegetation changes, and increased temperature of coastal air and river water to be infiltrated.","Artificial recharge; Climate change; Coastal dunes; Evapotranspiration; Freshwater lens; Rainwater lens; Sea level rise","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Geo-engineering","","",""
"uuid:e081be0d-cc7f-4d18-9bbb-a43cef5b57f2","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:e081be0d-cc7f-4d18-9bbb-a43cef5b57f2","A new tool to map the major worldviews in the Netherlands and USA, and explore how they relate to climate change","De Witt, A. (TU Delft BT/Biotechnology and Society); de Boer, Joop (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Hedlund, Nicholas (University of London, Institute of Education); Osseweijer, P. (TU Delft BT/Biotechnology and Society)","","2016","For addressing climate change, public support for changes in policy is needed, as well changes in individual lifestyles. Both of these appear to be intimately related with people's worldviews. Understanding these worldviews is therefore essential. In order to research and 'map' them, we translated the theoretical 'Integrative Worldview Framework' (IWF) into an empirical, quantitative approach. We constructed a worldview-scale aiming to distinguish between four major worldviews - labeled traditional, modern, postmodern, and integrative - and explored their interface with opinions and behaviors with respect to climate change. The survey was conducted with representative samples of citizens in the Netherlands and the USA (n = 527 and n = 556). The hypothesized worldviews were found in the data with a reasonable degree of reliability, especially in the Dutch sample. We also found consistent relationships between these worldview-clusters and a range of opinions, political priorities, and behaviors. In both countries postmoderns and integratives displayed significantly more concern about climate change as well as more sustainable behaviors, compared with moderns and traditionals. The implications of these findings for environmental policy and social science are noteworthy.","Climate change; Environmental behaviors; Integrative worldview framework; Integrative worldviews; Modern; Postmodern; Sustainable lifestyles; Traditional; Worldviews","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","BT/Biotechnology and Society","","",""
"uuid:40cfabfa-2f8c-452e-8c3f-48a83b1a0aa7","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:40cfabfa-2f8c-452e-8c3f-48a83b1a0aa7","Present-day and future Antarctic ice sheet climate and surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model","Lenaerts, Jan T M (Universiteit Utrecht); Vizcaino, M. (TU Delft Mathematical Geodesy and Positioning); Fyke, Jeremy (Los Alamos National Laboratory); van Kampenhout, Leo (Universiteit Utrecht); van den Broeke, Michiel R. (Universiteit Utrecht)","","2016","We present climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) as simulated by the global, coupled ocean–atmosphere–land Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a horizontal resolution of ∼ 1 ∘ in the past, present and future (1850–2100). CESM correctly simulates present-day Antarctic sea ice extent, large-scale atmospheric circulation and near-surface climate, but fails to simulate the recent expansion of Antarctic sea ice. The present-day Antarctic ice sheet SMB equals 2280 ± 131 Gtyear-1, which concurs with existing independent estimates of AIS SMB. When forced by two CMIP5 climate change scenarios (high mitigation scenario RCP2.6 and high-emission scenario RCP8.5), CESM projects an increase of Antarctic ice sheet SMB of about 70 Gtyear-1 per degree warming. This increase is driven by enhanced snowfall, which is partially counteracted by more surface melt and runoff along the ice sheet’s edges. This intensifying hydrological cycle is predominantly driven by atmospheric warming, which increases (1) the moisture-carrying capacity of the atmosphere, (2) oceanic source region evaporation, and (3) summer AIS cloud liquid water content.","Antarctica; Climate change; Climate modelling; Ice sheets; Sea level; Surface mass balance","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Mathematical Geodesy and Positioning","","",""
"uuid:8c2a3b91-811f-40e1-91ca-7fd5d6e90742","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:8c2a3b91-811f-40e1-91ca-7fd5d6e90742","Coastal and riverine ecosystems as adaptive flood defenses under a changing climate","van Wesenbeeck, B (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk; Deltares); de Boer, W.B. (Deltares); Narayan, Siddharth (National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis); van der Star, Wouter R L (Deltares); de Vries, Mindert B. (Deltares)","","2016","Adaptation planning for flood risk forms a significant part of global climate change response. Engineering responses to higher water levels can be prohibitively costly. Several recent studies emphasize the potential role of ecosystems in flood protection as adaptive risk reduction measures while also contributing to carbon fixation. Here, we use a conceptual model study to illustrate the built-in adaptive capability of ecosystems to reduce a wide range of wave heights, occurring at different water levels, to a narrower range. Our model shows that wave height of waves running through a forested section is independent of initial height or of water level. Although the underlying phenomenon of non-linear wave attenuation within coastal vegetation is well studied, implications of reducing variability in wave heights for design of ecosystem and levee combinations have not yet been properly outlined. Narrowing the range of wave heights by a vegetation field generates an adaptive levee that is robust to a whole range of external conditions rather than only to a maximum wave height. This feature can substantially reduce costs for retrofitting of levees under changing future wave climates. Thereby, in wave prone areas, inclusion of ecosystems into flood defense schemes constitutes an adaptive and safe alternative to only hard engineered flood risk measures.","Adaptive management; Climate change adaptation; Flood risk management; Levees; Mangroves; Nature-based coastal defense; Riparian forest; SWAN-VEG","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk","","",""
"uuid:549a1c77-9ab4-4aac-90d7-1a85127655a4","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:549a1c77-9ab4-4aac-90d7-1a85127655a4","Understanding Adaptive Capacity in Real Estate and the Built Environment: Climate Change and Extreme Weather in New York City","Keenan, J.M.","De Jonge, H. (promotor); Janssen-Jansen, L.B. (promotor)","2016","With climate change well underway, cities worldwide are struggling to develop and apply knowledge that will help advance social, environmental and economic adaptation to extreme weather and changing ecologies. Nowhere is this need more pressing than in the design, development and management of the built environment in New York City. In particular, private sector actors are challenged with developing a capacity to adapt to both known and unknown manifestations of climate change in the future. This dissertation aims to contribute to a new conceptualization of the nature of adaptive capacity as it understood and applied across a variety of systematic scales, including the building, the real estate firm and the allied professionals operating within the built environment. This research sets the stage for designing and managing adaptive capacities that allow for the transformation of the real estate sector not just to accommodate climate change but also to address a variety of indirect consequences manifested from natural resource depletion, evolutionary markets and changing consumer demands.","climate change; built environment; real estate; adaptation; adaptive capacity","en","doctoral thesis","","","","","","","","2019-04-19","Architecture and The Built Environment","Management in the Built Environment","","","",""
"uuid:37340b1e-0776-4f72-a262-82f1db8b7db5","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:37340b1e-0776-4f72-a262-82f1db8b7db5","A layered approach to model interconnected infrastructure and its significance for asset management","Bhamidipati, S.K.; Van der Lei, T.T.E.; Herder, P.M.","","2016","Physical infrastructures facilitate much of societal and economic wellbeing of countries, regions and urban areas. In our increasingly urbanizing world, infrastructures in urban areas are densely located and interconnected. The effects of this interconnectedness are being studied increasingly, particularly in light of climate change effects. In this paper, we develop an agent-based simulation model that allows us to study interconnected infrastructure. We present a layered approach that is analogous to GIS overlay approaches, which allows us to integrate representations of different infrastructures. We explore how this approach can help asset managers to gain insights in interconnected infrastructure by estimating their total damage and repair requirements during a flood event. The results show a difference in these estimates, when compared to non-integrated models, highlighting the need for asset managers to consider interconnectedness in infrastructure","asset management; interconnectedness; climate change; agent-based modelling","en","journal article","Delft University of Technology, Transport and Logistics Group","","","","","","","","Technology, Policy and Management","Engineering, Systems and Services","","","",""
"uuid:c8d06acc-7d08-4c42-8279-ba9e58d61d10","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:c8d06acc-7d08-4c42-8279-ba9e58d61d10","Climate change in asset management of infrastructure: A risk-based methodology applied to disruption of traffic on road networks due to the flooding of tunnels","Huibregtse, E.; Morales Napoles, O.; Hellebrandt, L.; Paprotny, D.; De Wit, S.","","2016","This paper presents a risk-based method to quantify climate change effects on road infrastructure, as a support for decision-making on interventions. This can be implemented in climate adaptation plans as an element of asset management. The method is illustrated by a specific case in which traffic on a road network is disrupted by the flooding of a tunnel due to extreme rainfall. Novel techniques to describe both probability of occurrence and consequences of an event are integrated into the proposed risk-based approach. To model a typical climate-change related phenomenon, i.e. rainfall intensity-duration, a model using copulas is proposed as well as a method to account for uncertainty using structured expert judgement. To quantify the consequences, an existing quick scan tool is adopted. The method calculates the risk of flooding of a tunnel, expressed in both probability of occurrence and subsequent additional travel duration on the road network. By comparison of this evolving risk to a societally acceptable threshold, the remaining resilience of the tunnel is evaluated. Furthermore, the method assesses the development of the resilience over time as a result of projected climate change. The maximum time-to-intervention is defined as the period up until the moment when the resilience is depleted. By application of the method to a tunnel in two different contexts, i.e. in a regional road network and a highway network, it is shown that the consequences of tunnel flooding may differ by an order of magnitude (25-fold for the example). Using a risk-based decision-making perspective leads to significant differences in the maximum time-to-intervention. In the example case the year of intervention is determined at 2020 for a tunnel in a highway network, while interventions can be postponed until 2140 in a regional road network.","climate change; infrastructure; asset management; risk-based design; probabilistic modelling; structured expert judgement","en","journal article","Delft University of Technology, Transport and Logistics Group","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:2d9049f7-d4e1-4a42-a77b-6bbd442d1151","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:2d9049f7-d4e1-4a42-a77b-6bbd442d1151","Evaluating infrastructure resilience to extreme weather – the case of the Dutch electricity transmission network","Bollinger, L.A.; Dijkema, G.P.J.","","2016","This paper reports the development and results of a model exploring the resilience of the Dutch electricity transmission infrastructure to extreme weather events. Climate change is anticipated to result in an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events over the coming decades. Situated in a low-lying coastal delta, the Netherlands may be particularly exposed to certain types of extreme weather(-induced) events. The degree to which the country’s electricity network may prove resilient in the face of these future events is an open question. The model focuses on two types of extreme events – floods and heat waves – and assesses two types of adaptation measures – substation flood protections and demand-side management. The model employs a network-based approach in assessing infrastructure resilience – explicitly representing the structure and properties of the Dutch transmission infrastructure – and extends previous work by accounting for key power system characteristics such as capacity constraints and cascading failures. From a practice perspective, the results offer a first indication of the vulnerability of the Dutch electricity transmission infrastructure in the context of climate change. These results suggest that the network displays some vulnerability to both floods and heat waves. Both types of adaptation measures tested are found to enhance resilience, though substation flood protection shows greater benefits. Whilst the model was specifically developed for the study of electricity networks, we anticipate that this method may also be applicable to other types of transport infrastructures.","climate change; electricity; extreme weather; modelling; network; resilience","en","journal article","Delft University of Technology","","","","","","","","Technology, Policy and Management","","","","",""
"uuid:4d24378e-0f27-4159-ac42-9b672eda32a9","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:4d24378e-0f27-4159-ac42-9b672eda32a9","The governance of flood risk planning in Guangzhou, China: using the past to study the present","Meng, M. (TU Delft Spatial Planning and Strategy); Dabrowski, M.M. (TU Delft Spatial Planning and Strategy)","Hein, Carola (editor)","2016","Based on the framework of governance adapted from the work of Patsy Healey and drawing on the case of Guangzhou, which is regarded as the most vulnerable city in China to flooding and waterlogging, this paper adds to the literature on urban climate change adaptation. It does so by shedding light on the history of the city’s struggle against the water and examining why the current spatial planning and flood risk management fails to address the growing flood risk linked with climate change. The paper distinguishes two major transformations of the approach to dealing with water in Guangzhou. Historically, the city was built under the influence of Fengshui Philosophy and co-existed with water. Then, the approach shifted towards engineering-based solutions to containing flood risk under the stress of rapid city expansion. After that, in the context of a changing climate, to minimise flood risk the local government is transferring its priorities from the planning of hard engineering solutions (back) towards soft nature-based solutions. However, the deeply rooted top-down planning culture and clear-cut functional separation between different departments of the local government critically affect the implementation of the policy and cooperation between the different agencies to address the present and increasingly urgent cross-cutting climate change adaptation agenda.
In this paper a cradle-to-grave assessment is executed to compare the environmental impact of acetylated Scots pine, tropical hardwood (Azobe) and non-renewable materials (steel, concrete) with the bearing structure of a typical pedestrian bridge as unit of comparison (‘functional unit’) The results show that acetylated wood has a considerably lower carbon footprint than steel, concrete and unsustainably sourced Azobe, and like sustainably sourced Azobe can have CO2 negative LCA results over the full life cycle.","acetylated wood; greenhouse gas emissions; climate change mitigation; carbon footprint; sustainability; bridge","en","conference paper","Technische universität Wien","","","","","","","","","","Climate Design and Sustainability","","",""
"uuid:0c616e2e-6a48-469e-bafb-698f8201f009","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:0c616e2e-6a48-469e-bafb-698f8201f009","Experience with LEDS and NAMA low carbon strategies: The case of Georgia","Mdivani, Kakhaberi (Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources Protection; Ecofys Germany); Hoppe, T. (TU Delft Organisation & Governance)","","2016","Low Emission Development Strategies (LEDS) and National Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) have the potential to support developing countries in attaining low carbongoals. In spite of the evident potential, there is a need to learn from practice. This paper explores the case of Georgia. The main research question discussed is: What experience has been gained with the development of LEDS and NAMAs in Georgia? The study reveals that both LEDS and NAMAs are subject to barriers that considerably slow development processes: there is a lack of institutional capacity, little inter-governmental goal alignment and poor coordination of actions, a lack of experienced staff and insufficient, substantial, earmarked funding. Capacity building depends on support from organizations in donor countries. This paper contributes to a growing body of knowledge of the implementation of LEDS and NAMA.","Capacity building; Climate change mitigation; Low carbon development strategy; National appropriate mitigation action; Policy implementation","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Organisation & Governance","","",""
"uuid:b95661c2-4941-4f0e-b554-f5c81197a75c","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:b95661c2-4941-4f0e-b554-f5c81197a75c","Presenting a framework to analyze local climate policy and action in small and medium-sized cities","Hoppe, T. (TU Delft Organisation & Governance); van der Vegt, Arjen (University of Twente); Stegmaier, Peter (University of Twente)","","2016","Academic attention to local climate policy usually focuses on large-sized cities. Given the climate challenges ahead this seems unjustified. Small and medium-sized cities (SMCs) deserve scholarly attention as well. The main question is: What factors influence climate change policy and local climate actions in SMCs? In this article we present an analytical framework to analyze climate change policy and local climate actions of SMCs. The framework addresses different aspects: policy-input, -throughput, -output, -outcome, characteristics of the local environment, local action arenas, influence by higher government levels, and interaction with climate change issue networks. The framework is used to analyze and compare four case studies of SMCs in the Dutch region of Twente (two urban and two rural municipalities, and addresses both adaptation and mitigation). Results show that both 'localist', 'multi-level' and issue network membership factors influence local climate policy action. Governance modes discerned concern mostly 'governing by authority' and 'self-governing'. When reflecting on the role of SMCs in climate action the study revealed the importance of local capacity building schemes issued by provincial government, inter-municipal network collaboration, and the potential for local governments to mobilize and organize citizen action.","Climate change adaptation; Climate change mitigation; Climate governance; Energy transition; Small and medium-sized cities; OA-Fund TU Delft","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Organisation & Governance","","",""
"uuid:b4e11228-1915-47e8-b4d8-a3f726fd0142","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:b4e11228-1915-47e8-b4d8-a3f726fd0142","A rejoinder to Michael Grubb, Annela Anger-Kraavi, Igor Bashmakov and Richard Wood","","Storm, S.T.H. (photographer); Mir, G.U.R. (photographer)","2016","","Climate Change; Energy; Sustainable growth","en","report","Institute for new economic thinking","","","","","","","","","","Economics of Technology and Innovation","","",""
"uuid:990c158d-dec7-409d-bd80-a2828b6b1334","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:990c158d-dec7-409d-bd80-a2828b6b1334","Hydro-morphological modelling of small, wave-dominated estuaries","Slinger, J (TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering; TU Delft Policy Analysis)","","2016","Small, intermittently open or closed estuaries are characteristic of the coasts of South Africa, Australia, California, Mexico and many other areas of the world. However, modelling attention has tended to focus on big estuaries that drain large catchments and serve a wide diversity of interests e.g. agriculture, urban settlement, recreation, commercial fishing. In this study, the development of a simple, parametric, system dynamics model to simulate the opening and closure of the mouths of small, wave-dominated estuaries is reported. In the model, the estuary is conceived as a basin with a specific water volume to water level relationship, connected to the sea by a channel of fixed width, but variable sill height. Changes in the form of the basin are not treated in the model, while the dynamics of the mouth channel are central to the model. The magnitude and direction of the flow through the mouth determines whether erosion or deposition of sediment occurs in the mouth channel, influencing the sill height. The model is implemented on the Great Brak Estuary in South Africa and simulations reveal that the raised low water levels in the estuary during spring tide relative to neap tide, are occasioned by the constriction of the tidal flow through the shallow mouth. Freshwater inflows to the estuary are shown to be significant in determining the behaviour of the inlet mouth, a factor often ignored in studies on tidal inlets. Further it is the balance between freshwater inflows and wave events that determines the opening or closure of the mouth of a particular estuary.","Intermittently open estuary; Episodic closure; Parametric modelling; Bar-built; Tidal inlet; Freshwater flows; Climate change; South Africa","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering","","",""
"uuid:e700d83d-9e5e-475f-8d33-7af43d1805ca","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:e700d83d-9e5e-475f-8d33-7af43d1805ca","Resilient by design: a modelling approach to support scenario and policy analysis in the Olifants River Basin, South Africa","Clifford Holmes, J.K.V. (Rhodes University); Pollard, S (Association for Water and Rural Development); Biggs, H (Association for Water and Rural Development); Chihambakwe, Kundai (Association for Water and Rural Development); Jonker, Willem; York, Theo; Andres Diaz, Fabio; Slinger, J (TU Delft Policy Analysis; TU Delft Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering)","","2016","In this paper, we report on a concerted modelling effort in the South African water resources sector in which system dynamics provides the paradigmatic framing for both a stakeholder engagement process and for developing an underpinning, integrative simulation model. We describe the design of the parallel modelling approach and examine the progress to date. We highlight the crafting of the engagement sessions to fit the different characteristics and needs of the participating stakeholders and reflect upon outcomes so as to set the project path into the future. In this, we choose to build resilience by a progression from collecting and exploring individual experiences of stakeholders’ problems; to connecting individuals’ experiences to their broader sectors’ problems; and finally to cross-connecting the sectors’ impacts and requirements to one another under different scenarios of change.","climate change; water management; public policy; stakeholder engagement; resilence; simulation modelling","en","conference paper","System Dynamics Society","","","","","","","","","","Policy Analysis","","",""
"uuid:1954fb2b-14d5-4267-b928-b99ff771d60a","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:1954fb2b-14d5-4267-b928-b99ff771d60a","How the Invisible Hand is Supposed to Adjust the Natural Thermostat: A Guide for the Perplexed","Storm, S.T.H. (TU Delft Economics of Technology and Innovation)","","2016","Mainstream climate economics takes global warming seriously, but perplexingly concludes that the optimal economic policy is to almost do nothing about it. This conclusion can be traced to just a few “normative” assumptions, over which there exists fundamental disagreement amongst economists. This paper explores two axes of this disagreement. The first axis (“market vs. regulation”) measures faith in the invisible hand to adjust the natural thermostat. The second axis expresses differences in views on the efficiency and equity implications of climate action. The two axes combined lead to a classification of conflicting approaches in climate economics. The variety of approaches does not imply a post-modern “anything goes”, as the contradictions between climate and capitalism cannot be wished away.","Climate change economics; Carbon pricing; Social discount rate; Equity versus efficiency; Normative uncertainty","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Economics of Technology and Innovation","","",""
"uuid:d44358b2-482d-4c5c-9ba9-41a69cf8e96a","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d44358b2-482d-4c5c-9ba9-41a69cf8e96a","Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth: Production-based versus Consumption-based Evidence on Decoupling","Storm, S.T.H. (TU Delft Economics of Technology and Innovation); Mir, G.U.R. (Ecofys)","","2016","We assess the Carbon-Kuznets-Curve hypothesis using internationally consistent and comparable production-based versus consumption-based CO2 emissions data for 40 countries(and 35 industries) during 1995-2007 from the World Input Output Database (WIOD). Theestimates for per capita CO2 emissions are truly comprehensive as these include all carbonemissions embodied in international trade and global commodity chains. Even if we findevidence suggesting a decoupling of production-based CO2 emissions and growth, consumptionbasedCO2 emissions are monotonically increasing with per capita GDP. We draw out the implications of these findings for climate policy and binding emission reduction obligations.","Carbon Kuznets Curve; Climate change; Economic growth; Production-based CO2 emissions; Consumption-based CO2 emissions; Decoupling","en","report","Institute for new economic thinking","","","","","","","","","","Economics of Technology and Innovation","","",""
"uuid:3ead1ade-1699-4440-9085-be57c160dfc6","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:3ead1ade-1699-4440-9085-be57c160dfc6","ATM4E: A concept for environmentally-optimized aircraft trajectories","Matthes, S (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Grewe, V. (TU Delft Aircraft Noise and Climate Effects; Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Lee, D (Manchester Metropolitan University); Linke, F. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Shine, Keith (University of Reading); Stromatas, Stavros (Envisa SAS)","","2016","Trajectory optimisation is one option to reduce air traffic impact on environment. A multidimensional environmental assessment framework is needed to optimize impact on climate, local air quality and noise simultaneously. An interface between flight planning and environmental impact information can be established with environmental cost functions. In a feasibility study such multidimensional assessment can be applied to the European Airspace. The project ATM4E within the frame of SESAR2020 has spelled out the objective to develop such a concept and to study changing traffic flows due to environmental optimisation.","Climate change; Operational Measures; Mitigation Measures; Emissions; Air Quality; Contrails; Ozone; Methane; Routing Strategies; noise","en","conference paper","","","","","","","","","","","Aircraft Noise and Climate Effects","","",""
"uuid:338218a9-94ec-49f9-a64d-61ffc10a7b3f","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:338218a9-94ec-49f9-a64d-61ffc10a7b3f","Surface thermal analysis of North Brabant cities and neighbourhoods during heat waves","Echevarria Icaza, L. (TU Delft OLD Urban Compositions); van der Hoeven, F.D. (TU Delft OLD Urban Design; TU Delft 100% Research); van den Dobbelsteen, A.A.J.F. (TU Delft Architectural Engineering +Technology)","","2016","The urban heat island effect is often associated with large metropolises. However, in the Netherlands even small cities will be affected by the phenomenon in the future (Hove et al., 2011), due to the dispersed or mosaic urbanisation patterns in particularly the southern part of the country: the province of North Brabant. This study analyses the average night time land surface temperature (LST) of 21 North-Brabant urban areas through 22 satellite images retrieved by Modis 11A1 during the 2006 heat wave and uses Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper to map albedo and normalized difference temperature index (NDVI) values. Albedo, NDVI and imperviousness are found to play the most relevant role in the increase of nighttime LST. The surface cover cluster analysis of these three parameters reveals that the 12 “urban living environment” categories used in the region of North Brabant can actually be reduced to 7 categories, which simplifies the design guidelines to improve the surface
thermal behaviour of the different neighbourhoods thus reducing the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect in existing medium size cities and future developments
adjacent to those cities.","urban heat island; climate change; sustainable urban planning; remote sensing","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","Architectural Engineering +Technology","OLD Urban Compositions","","",""
"uuid:7001a164-8582-452e-839a-e158835d299b","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:7001a164-8582-452e-839a-e158835d299b","WeShareIt game: Strategic foresight for climate-change induced disaster risk reduction","Onencan, A.M. (TU Delft Policy Analysis; Moi University); van de Walle, B.A. (TU Delft Policy Analysis); Enserink, B. (TU Delft Policy Analysis); Chelang, J. (Moi University); Kulei, F. (Moi University)","","2016","Nile Basin policy makers, at all levels, are constantly making quick decisions to address emergencies. The decisions are made in the context of a complex, uncertain, ever-changing and highly volatile basin. However, for these decisions to take into account future uncertainties, like climate-change induced disasters, policy makers need to enhance their capacity in strategic foresight. Strategic foresight helps them make more robust decisions that take into account deep uncertainties and thus buffer the basin from future natural disasters. The authors explore the contribution of serious gaming in enhancing the Nile Basin policy makers' capacity on strategic foresight. They present the findings from the application of a game-based, experimental study of a serious game known as WeShareIt. WeShareIt was played in Nairobi on 22 October 2015 by 11 participants from the Kenyan Ministry of Water and Irrigation and Moi University Centre for Public Sector Reforms. Data on the added value and contribution of the game to increased strategic foresight and disaster risk reduction were collected using pre-game, in-game and post-game questionnaires, together with a debriefing session and observations. The analysis shows that strategic foresight is an important element for effective disaster risk reduction. Observations in the game-based intervention provided evidence that the participants engaged in short term quick decision making and were not prepared for life-threatening natural disasters. The results of the experiment support the conclusion that serious gaming may be an effective and promising method for enhancing the capacity of policy makers on strategic foresight so as to prepare them for future climate induced natural disasters.","Adaptation; Climate Change; Decision Support; Deep Uncertainty; Disaster; Nile; Risk Reduction; Serious Gaming; Strategic Foresight; Water Management","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Policy Analysis","","",""
"uuid:4e7f134f-3859-482b-a02a-fcd4b0a91430","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:4e7f134f-3859-482b-a02a-fcd4b0a91430","Climate impact evaluation of future green aircraft technologies","Grewe, V. (TU Delft Aircraft Noise and Climate Effects; Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Matthes, S (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Dahlmann, K. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Gollnick, V (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Niklaß, M.; Linke, F. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)); Kindler, K. (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR))","","2016","Air traffic is an important part of our mobility with an increasing rate in transport volume of around 5% per year. Air traffic also contributes to anthropogenic warming by around 5%. Here we present a climate impact assessment tool AirClim and give an overview on the recent technology assessments. Finally, we present a best practice for a robust climate impact assessment, which combines a comprehensive four-layer approach to model the air traffic system with AirClim and includes aspects of atmospheric uncertainties, sensitivities, and verification procedures.","Climate change; Operational Measures; Mitigation Measures; Emissions; Technological Measures; Contrails; Ozone; New Configurations","en","conference paper","","","","","","","","","","","Aircraft Noise and Climate Effects","","",""
"uuid:6c751922-1eeb-4367-97d4-de8e08908b4b","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:6c751922-1eeb-4367-97d4-de8e08908b4b","MAFURIKO: Design of Nzoia Basin location based flood game","Onencan, A.M. (TU Delft Policy Analysis; Moi University); Kortmann, Rens (TU Delft Policy Analysis); Kulei, F. (Moi University); Enserink, B. (TU Delft Policy Analysis)","","2016","Every 2 to 7 years, Kenya experiences a reoccurrence of El-Niño rains leading to loss of life and massive damage to property. The 1997/98 El-Niño floods affected 1.5 million persons and led to an estimated USD 1.2 billion infrastructural damage, USD 236 million agricultural damage and USD 9 million on other losses (property, soil erosion, pollution). Recent rains in October 2015 to January 2016 left 112 Kenyans dead and over 100,000 internally displaced. The Kenyan Government predictions indicate that the number of affected persons will be approximately 1,500,000, before 2018. Despite the numerous exposures to floods, Kenyan communities' resilience to floods risks is weak. Traditional crisis management approaches have not been successful in enhancing citizen capacity in flood prevention and preparedness. In addition, the past flood forecasts have not played a key role, as early warning advisories. To address these complexities, we propose a location-based game so as to create a positive learning environment and increase territory awareness, collaboration and soft skills, which are necessary for flood preparedness. Moreover, through playing the game, we hope that social learning for joint action will be enhanced. The game is known as ""MAFURIKO"" which is a Swahili word for floods. Through MAFURIKO, the citizens may learn basic flood prevention and preparedness procedures, may begin to see their predicament differently and may also identify opportunities which remain untapped. In this paper, we outline a theoretical framework and preliminary MAFURIKO game design specifications for the Nzoia sub-basin of the Lake Victoria Basin, in Kenya. MAFURIKO is intended to enhance the capacity of Kenyan citizens on flood risk reduction, so that they can work with the Kenyan Government to prevent and prepare for future floods. Future work will entail completion, staging and application of the location based game.","Citizen Participation; Climate-change; Deep Uncertainty; Flood Preparedness; Kenya; Lake Victoria Basin; Location-based Games; Natural Disasters; Nzoia Basin; Serious Gaming; Water Management","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Policy Analysis","","",""
"uuid:7fb0c455-3467-438d-8538-4e06cc6d781f","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:7fb0c455-3467-438d-8538-4e06cc6d781f","The emergence of climate change mitigation action by society: An agent-based scenario discovery study","Greeven, Sebastiaan (IDEA Consult); Kraan, O.D.E. (TU Delft Energie and Industrie; Universiteit Leiden); Chappin, E.J.L. (TU Delft Energie and Industrie); Kwakkel, J.H. (TU Delft Policy Analysis)","","2016","Developing model-based narratives of society’s response to climate change is challenged by two factors. First, society’s response to possible future climate change is subject to many uncertainties. Second, we argue that society’s mitigation action emerge out of the actions and interactions of the many actors in society. Together, these two factors imply that the overarching dynamics of society’s response to climate change are unpredictable. In contrast to conventional processes of developing scenarios, in this study the emergence of climate change mitigation action by society has been represented in an agent-based model with which we developed two narratives of the emergence of climate change mitigation action by applying exploratory modelling and analysis. The agent-based model represents a two-level game involving governments and citizens changing their emission behaviour in the face of climate change through mitigation action. Insights gained from the exploration on uncertainties pertaining to the system have been used to construct two internally consistent and plausible narratives on the pathways of the emergence of mitigation action, which, as we argue, are a reasonable summary of the uncertainty space. The first narrative highlights how and when strong mitigation action emerges while the second narrative highlights how and when weak mitigation action emerges. In contrast to a conventional scenario development process, these two scenarios have been discovered bottom up rather than being defined top down. They succinctly capture the possible outcomes of the emergence of climate change mitigation by society across a large range of uncertain factors. The narratives therefore help in conveying the consequences of the various uncertainties influencing the emergence of climate change mitigation action by society.","Agent-based modeling; Climate change mitigation; Exploratory modeling; Scenario discovery; Uncertainty","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Energie and Industrie","","",""
"uuid:9c420ee2-4556-4498-b142-a780600179ed","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:9c420ee2-4556-4498-b142-a780600179ed","Coupling Nile Basin 2050 scenarios with the IPCC 2100 projections for climate-induced risk reduction","Onencan, A.M. (TU Delft Policy Analysis; Moi University); Enserink, B. (TU Delft Policy Analysis); van de Walle, B.A. (TU Delft Policy Analysis); Chelang, J. (Moi University)","","2016","Scenarios are valuable tools that could support decision making under deep uncertainty, nevertheless, their potential remains untapped. The paper explores whether participatory scenario construction in the form of stories coupled with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2100 projections may contribute to increased utility of the scenarios and projections for climate-induced risk reduction, in the Nile Basin. The Nile River is 6,695 kilometres long and covers a basin area of 3.18 million square kilometres (one-tenth of the African land mass). The basin is highly susceptible to climate-change induced disasters. According to the IPCC, there is high confidence that the Basin will suffer from severe shifts in biome distribution, compounded water stress, degradation of marine life and reduced crop productivity. There is also medium confidence that the Nile Basin will experience: severe decline in livestock, significant increase in vector and water-borne diseases, undernutrition, increased migration and sea level rise. The basin is already experiencing some of these key risks, on the other hand, their impact in the next 30 to 35 years is deeply uncertain. The findings of this paper are based on four scenarios, namely: Kazuri, Miskeen, Umoja and EjoHeza and data collected from two forums that were held in Jinja, Uganda and Nairobi, Kenya. The forum participants were a multi-disciplinary team of national and international stakeholders. The paper concludes that coupling Nile Basin storylines with the IPCC 2100 projections, proved to be an effective tool in increasing the utility of the scenarios and projections, for purposes of disaster risk reduction. Future work will entail analysing the uptake of the scenarios to resolve deadlocks and enhance cooperation.","Adaptation; Climate Change; Decision Support; Deep Uncertainty; Disaster; Futures; Nile; Risk Reduction; Risk Transfer; Scenarios; Water Management","en","journal article","","","","","","","","","","","Policy Analysis","","",""
"uuid:687a8c93-afd3-461c-8297-d47a679f3a76","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:687a8c93-afd3-461c-8297-d47a679f3a76","Relocating a city, challenges and opportunities for the transition of the water infrastructure in Kiruna","Leonhardt, G.; Kuzniecow Bacchin, T.; Mair, M.; Zischg, J.; Ljung, S.; Rogers, B.; Goldkuhl, L.; Gustafsson, A.; Sitzenfrei, R.; Blecken, G.; Ashley, R.; Rauch, W.; van Timmeren, A.; Viklander, M.","","2015","The city of Kiruna in Northern Sweden has become known for the need to relocate major parts of the city. Current and future mining activities in the world’s largest underground iron ore mine are the cause of land subsidence that requires relocation of substantial parts of the town including its water infrastructure. Figure 1 shows the area currently affected and projections thereof for the future. The process of relocating the city has started already and will continue for a few decades. It implies the construction of new urban areas and at the same time demolition in abandoned areas. With regard to the life span of water infrastructure, all actions taken now and in the near future will have an impact over five to ten decades. These circumstances place special demands on processes and technical solutions with regard to robustness, flexibility and mobility and require dealing with changes that cannot yet be foreseen.","climate change; cold climate; deconstruction; Green/Blue infrastructure; water infrastructure transition","en","conference paper","","","","","","","","","Architecture and The Built Environment","Urbanism","","","",""
"uuid:1bb52130-bffd-432b-ada7-4658802459f5","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:1bb52130-bffd-432b-ada7-4658802459f5","Guest editorial: Governing the challenges of climate change and energy transition in cities","Hoppe, T.; Van Bueren, E.M.","","2015","Cities form the key context within which social, economic and environmental challenges for sustainable development will manifest in the years to come. As they face the grand societal challenges of climate change and the greening of energy systems, city governments are confronted with the challenge of designing and implementing workable policy strategies. We find that although much attention has been paid to low carbon energy transition in cities, there is surprisingly little attention to the dimension of governance, policy and politics in the scholarly literature. The main question in this guest editorial of the thematic issue, entitled ‘Governing the Climate Change Mitigation and Energy Transition Challenges in Cities’, is: How can effective policy strategies be designed and implemented to govern the challenges of climate change and energy transition in cities? We develop some preliminary answers to this question based on seven research papers that form the contribution to the thematic series. In particular, the various roles that cities play in governing the climate change challenges and energy transition require further description and analysis, specifying the different governing roles of urban actors and how the city—socially, institutionally or geophysically—forms the context within which governance initiatives and arrangements are formed and implemented, while cities themselves are in turn part of larger physical, infrastructural and institutional networks that influence and condition the local governance opportunities. A research agenda to explore the topic further must include particularly the following areas: the role of local government in the interplay between governance initiatives at multiple levels, the influence and the confluence of current (sectoral) policies, learning from a variation of practices of local low carbon policy, mapping the institutional dimension, mapping design and implementation practices of urban low carbon policy, assessing the effects and legitimacy of urban low carbon policies, further understanding of strategic action fields and lines of conflicts between (coalitions of) actors and identifying workable governance frameworks and policies supporting community-led energy initiatives.","energy transition; climate change mitigation; low carbon strategy; cities; governance","en","journal article","SpringerOpen","","","","","","","","Architecture and The Built Environment","Management in the Built Environment","","","",""
"uuid:9d4d8658-81a5-4c04-9c2d-b019dee5f09d","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:9d4d8658-81a5-4c04-9c2d-b019dee5f09d","Trends in Moderate Rainfall Extremes: A Regional Monotone Regression Approach","Roth, M.; Buishand, T.A.; Jongbloed, G.","","2015","Rainfall extremes are thought to have increased over recent years. Typically linear trends have been considered to describe the temporal evolution of high quantiles of the daily rainfall distribution. For long records it is important to allow more flexibility. Quantile regression methods are available to estimate monotone trends for single stations. Having multiple stations in a region, the significance of the trend at the regional scale is often of interest. From this perspective the authors propose a regression approach that can be used to estimate a common monotone trend for the site-specific quantiles. Moreover, the method allows for the construction of confidence bands and testing the hypothesis of an existing nondecreasing trend against the null hypothesis of no trend. The approach is applied to 102 series of daily rainfall over the Netherlands for the period 1910–2009. The results are compared with those from a (regional) Mann–Kendall test. Significantly increasing trends are found for the winter season and for the whole year. In the summer season trends are less consistent over the region and are only significant in the western part of the Netherlands. For the summer season, linearity of the trend seems less apparent than for winter and for the whole year. However, the deviation from linearity is not significant.","physical meteorology and climatology; climate change; mathematical and statistical techniques; regression analysis; statistics","en","journal article","American Meteorological Society","","","","","","","2016-05-16","Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science","Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics","","","",""
"uuid:d6534414-b0fe-4b6b-af49-3d329f3326af","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d6534414-b0fe-4b6b-af49-3d329f3326af","Institute of Poldering: Meadow Under Construction","Van Loon, F.D.; Pouderoijen, M.T.; Alberini, E.; Dijkstra, C.M.; Hagen, S.R.; De Jong, M.; Kiliço?lu, I.D.; Koukouvelou, A.; Mekel, M.L.; Schotting, K.; Shao, S.; Sun, X.; Terzi, O.; De Waal, W.; Van der Wal, I.A.; Zhang, B.","","2015","Booklet of the elective course AR0048 2014/2015 ‘Landscape Architecture ON site - being part of Oerol’, an elective course of the MSc2 - Chair of Landscape Architecture at the TU Delft.","landscape architecture; education; polder; climate change; meadow birds; Oerol; Terschelling","en","book","Chair of Landscape Architecture","","","","","","","","Architecture and The Built Environment","Urbanism","","","","53.385000, 5.320000"
"uuid:eb5a59c0-3fcc-49d7-90c6-3d8e88f3dcb2","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:eb5a59c0-3fcc-49d7-90c6-3d8e88f3dcb2","Multi-criteria optimization framework for road infrastructures under different scenario of climate change","Orcesi, A.; Chemineau, H.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.; Van Erp, H.R.N.; Lin, P.H.; Obel Nielsen, K.; Pedersen, C.","","2015","","optimization; bridge management; Markov chains; IQOA scoring system; climate change","en","conference paper","IABSE","","","","","","","","Technology, Policy and Management","Values Technology and Innovation","","","",""
"uuid:b2506cec-bbba-4d4a-88cd-04298dd5dc0a","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:b2506cec-bbba-4d4a-88cd-04298dd5dc0a","The Gap of Climate Adaptation Development of the Spatial Planning System in Taiwan: How the Multilevel Planning Agencies Respond to Climate Risk","Lin, Y.T.","","2015","Recognizing that climate risk is a real threat to the environment and society, spatial planning plays a key role in developing adaptation policy responses as well as in integrating the territorial or spatial impacts of governmental sectoral policies. Planning for adaptation through policy intervention will speed up the implementation of climate risk management. Taiwan is situated in a region in which 73% of the population living in more than three natural disaster impact zones. How to cope with climate varieties more locally and increase national adaptive capacity becomes an important issue for public and private sectors and actors. To incorporate the concept of risk management into the supportive legislation, plan making, and procedures at different spatial levels across a range of time scales is the adaptation approach in spatial planning system. This paper uses a framework to elaborate how and what types of intervention in planning institution has been adopted or adjusted with case study in Taiwan. Two barriers in the stages of planned adaptation are multilevel governance and land use management. These barriers arise from the existed problems in spatial planning system and affect the effectiveness, efficiency, equity and legitimacy embedded in adaptation decision-making.","climate change adaptation; spatial planning; risk","en","conference paper","Czech Technical University","","","","","","","","Architecture and The Built Environment","Urbanism","","","",""
"uuid:6b742e87-e3c4-4096-a73b-67f8bb32eb90","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:6b742e87-e3c4-4096-a73b-67f8bb32eb90","Cleaner fuels to reduce emissions of CO2, NOx and PM10 by container ships: A solution or a box of Pandora?","Vleugel, J.M.; Bal, F.","","2015","Transport vehicles contribute to the on going rise in emissions of CO2 worldwide and emit large amounts of NOx and PM10. The growing demand for container transport is only sustainable if transport becomes ‘greener’. There are innovations, which unite economic and environmental interests. One example it the ongoing increase in ship size, which reduces the cost of shipping by reducing fuel consumption and emissions per container. Another example is the use of alternative fuel (blend)s in ship engines. The central theme in this paper is to better understand the impact of replacing standard fuels in engines of large(r) container ships by alternative fuels (biodiesel, LNG/CNG) on CO2 NOx and PM10 emissions. This leads to the following questions: Can alternative fuels help to significantly reduce CO2, NOx and PM10 emissions in port areas? Does their use allow compensation of the growth in emissions due to the growth in container shipping? It is shown for a typical seaport container terminal that cleaner fuels can contribute to lowering these emissions, even if the volume of containers handled by this terminal triples. The use of what seem at first glance cleaner fuels may however open a box of Pandora as a widespread use of organic biofuel may create serious other environmental problems, additional pressure on local food supply and social stability in already vulnerable areas of the world. More use of natural gas also raises serious environmental concerns.","climate change; emissions; container transport; ports; fuels; tradeoffs","en","conference paper","WIT Press","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Transport & Planning","","","",""
"uuid:bc93e79e-74d0-4443-9e72-db20fc544a3b","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:bc93e79e-74d0-4443-9e72-db20fc544a3b","Stratocumulus transitions in present-day and future climate","Van der Dussen, J.J.","Siebesma, A.P. (promotor); De Roode, S.R. (promotor)","2015","Clouds have a strong net cooling effect on our planet, as they reflect a large part of the incident solar radiation. To be able to make accurate forecasts of the global climate, cloudiness should therefore be correctly represented by climate models. Currently, however there are large differences in the forecasted temperature increase among climate models. One of the most important causes of these differences is the uncertainty in the representation of clouds, in particular of stratocumulus clouds. Stratocumulus clouds are low clouds that often form an almost completely closed cloud deck. Only little sunlight passes through them, so that they are often associated with grey and dull weather. Stratocumulus clouds are frequently found over oceans in the subtropics, where they can cover enormous areas of several millions of square kilometers. When they are advected by the trade winds from the subtropics toward the equator, a transition typically occurs during which the stratocumulus slowly thins and eventually breaks up. Simultaneously, cumulus clouds appear that have a much lower cloud cover and therefore reflect less sunlight. Hence, stratocumulus transitions cause an abrupt decrease of the cloud-induced net cooling effect, which makes them particularly important for climate models. At the same time, the representation of stratocumulus clouds is extremely challenging for climate models, since their development strongly depends on the transport of among others moisture by small-scale turbulence. Due to their coarse resolution, climate models are unable to explicitly simulate processes with typical sizes of a hundred kilometers or less. Hence, turbulent transport, together with other cloud related processes, is represented in a simplified statistical manner by parameterizations, which introduces much uncertainty. During this thesis project we have simulated stratocumulus clouds and their transitions with a numerical model that, in contrast to climate models, is capable of representing the interaction between turbulence and clouds in detail. In chapter two we compare the results of six of these so-called large-eddy simulation models with measurements that had been gathered during a stratocumulus transition. All models are shown to be capable of correctly representing the main features of the transition, including the slow thinning of the stratocumulus and the simultaneous development of cumulus clouds. The simulations yield a wealth of data on the three-dimensional structure of the atmosphere, which is impossible to obtain from measurements. These data allow us to investigate the causes of the thinning and breaking up of stratocumulus clouds during transitions in detail. One of these causes can be sought in the change of the turbulent structure of the atmospheric boundary layer in which the stratocumulus resides. At the start of the transition, the boundary layer is still rather shallow, allowing turbulence to vertically mix the air in it relatively well. Hence, the moisture that evaporates from the ocean surface can easily reach the cloud layer, thereby feeding and maintaining it. As the transition progresses, the boundary layer becomes deeper and the distance between the clouds and the surface increases. It has been suggested that eventually turbulence will not be sufficiently strong anymore to maintain the well-mixed structure of the boundary layer. This so-called decoupling would cause the moisture transport to the stratocumulus to be almost completely cut off, causing it to rapidly dry and dissolve. However, in chapter two we show from the model results that decoupling has less effect on the humidity transport than was originally thought. Another process that is often held responsible for the breaking up of stratocumulus clouds is entrainment. In this process, air from the relatively warm and dry free troposphere is mixed into the boundary layer. Hence, entrainment causes drying and warming of the stratocumulus cloud and is therefore associated with its thinning. In chapter three we derive an equation that describes the change with time of the total amount of condensed water in the cloud. Using this equation we argue that entrainment is indeed an important cause for the thinning of stratocumulus clouds during a transition. On the other hand, we also show that other processes, such as the supply of moisture from the sea surface, can be strong enough to diminish this thinning, even for conditions for which earlier studies predicted an unconditional breakup of the cloud. In the second part of this thesis, we investigate the effect of the warming of the climate on stratocumulus clouds. In chapter four, we perform a set of simulations of stratocumulus clouds for conditions that are representative for the current climate. In a second set of simulations we mimic a future climate by increasing the temperature of the atmosphere and of the sea. This idealized climate perturbation causes a decrease of the thickness and hence the reflectivity of the stratocumulus clouds in all simulations. This suggests that, in a future climate, more solar radiation will be able to reach the Earth's surface than in the current climate. This way, stratocumulus clouds will enhance the warming of the climate. As a result of a warming of the climate, the large-scale atmospheric circulation between the equator and the subtropics, the so-called Hadley circulation, will weaken. In chapter five we show that a weakening of the Hadley circulation delays the breakup of stratocumulus clouds during transitions. Effectively, this leads to an increase of the amount of stratocumulus clouds in a future climate. This mechanism therefore counteracts the reduction of the amount of stratocumulus clouds in response to a climate warming that we found in chapter four, but will likely not be strong enough to completely compensate for it.","stratocumulus; numerical simulation; turbulence; climate change","en","doctoral thesis","","","","","","","","2015-06-22","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Geoscience and Remote Sensing","","","","34, 25"
"uuid:ed825420-c7bc-474a-9228-0210aa7d7ef7","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:ed825420-c7bc-474a-9228-0210aa7d7ef7","Partnering for climate change adaptations by Dutch housing associations","Roders, M.J.","Visscher, H.J. (promotor); Straub, A. (promotor)","2015","It is globally recognised that action needs to be taken to address the negative effects of climate change. These effects, such as more extreme rainfall, may threaten the quality of life of those living in urban environments. Increasing the implementation of climate change adaptation measures is addressed in this thesis by engaging the construction sector while focusing on the dwellings of Dutch housing associations. This cooperation could work as a catalyst for information-sharing and increased efficiency in the construction process. The effect could be further improved by bringing in external players, such as local governments and water boards. To implement measures more easily, framing is very important. This book not only offers valuable information for those involved with the Dutch housing stock and climate change impacts, but will also help parties outside The Netherlands to cope with climate change adaptation in built-up areas.","partnering; climate change adaptation; social housing","en","doctoral thesis","A+BE","","","","","","","","Architecture and The Built Environment","OTB","","","",""
"uuid:d9cd85d4-2647-49e4-8e7c-df66e27681d3","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d9cd85d4-2647-49e4-8e7c-df66e27681d3","Very long term development of the Dutch Inland Waterway Transport System: Policy analysis, transport projections, shipping scenarios, and a new perspective on economic growth and future discounting","Van Dorsser, J.C.M.","Ligteringen, H. (promotor); Van Wee, G.P. (promotor)","2015","This thesis addresses how a new method for the evaluation of policies with a very long term impact on the Dutch Inland Waterway Transport (IWT) system can be developed. It proposes an outline for a very long term transport model, prepares a number of very long term scenarios, and indicates that a different perspective on economic growth and future discounting is required to obtain realistic projections and develop sensible policies for issues with a very long term impact. Extended summary report: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:ef349716-b484-4820-a02a-d1cd13bc51b8","very long term; inland waterway transport; policy analysis; uncertainty; transport modelling; probabilistic projections; climate change; intermodal transport; scenario analysis; delta scenarios; economic growth; future discounting","en","doctoral thesis","TRAIL Research School","","","","","","","2015-05-13","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:91e2668d-83e1-4ace-b110-3dc2109238e5","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:91e2668d-83e1-4ace-b110-3dc2109238e5","Climate Change Impacts on River Floods: Uncertainty and Adaptation","Wang, L.","Vrijling, J.K. (promotor); Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (promotor)","2015","The modelling frameworks, which include greenhouse gas emission scenarios, climate models, downscaling methods and hydrological models, are generally used to assess climate change impacts on river floods. In this research, the uncertainty associated with each component of the modelling framework is analysed with particular reference to climate change impacts on flood frequency. A method of risk-averse economic optimisation has been proposed for adapting river dikes to climate change under uncertainty. The Huai River Basin in China has been selected as a case study. The outputs of climate models, i.e., General Circulation Models (GCMs), under greenhouse gas emission scenarios have been commonly used as fundamental inputs of the climate change impact assessments. The analysis in this thesis employed the climate model projections of the WCRP CMIP3 and CMIP5 datasets. In Chapter 2, a brief introduction of emission scenarios, as well as a preliminary analysis of the simulative ability and future projections of the participating climate models, is provided. The results confirm the necessity to bias-correct and downscale the climate model outputs before being used in impact-related studies. The annual mean temperature in the study area is suggested to increase up to 8oC at the end of this century under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario without mitigation measures. The standard deviation of precipitation intensity is suggested to increase, especially in summer, which may in the future lead to high-magnitude floods. Empirical statistical downscaling methods are becoming increasingly popular in climate change impact assessments that require downscaling multi-GCM projections. In Chapter 3 empirical statistical downscaling methods are classified based on calibration strategies and statistical transformations. Ten combinations of calibration strategies and transformation methods were used to represent a range of empirical statistical downscaling methods. To test the performance of these methods in downscaling daily precipitation and temperature, an inter-model cross validation was carried out using an ensemble of 16 GCMs. These downscaling methods were further applied to downscale the climate for the future period to assess the associated uncertainties. The results show that the change factor based methods outperform the bias correction based methods in projecting the probability distribution of downscaled daily temperature. With the change factor calibration strategy, simply adding (for temperature) or multiplying (for precipitation) the mean change factor is sufficient to represent most of the relative changes projected by GCMs. The use of quantile based methods appear to be advantageous only at the tails of the distribution. More sophisticated bias correction based methods are needed to remove the biases in the higher-order statistics of the GCM outputs. The two calibration strategies led to fundamentally different temporal structures and spatial variability of the downscaled climatic variables. Bias correction based methods produced larger uncertainty bounds of inter-annual variability than the change factor methods. For downscaled precipitation, the uncertainty arising from the downscaling methods is comparable to the uncertainty arising from GCMs, while more uncertainty is introduced by calibration strategies than statistical transformation methods. There is a growing consensus that the performance of hydrological models should be routinely evaluated before being used in impact-related studies. The uncertainty, which stems from transferring calibrated models to a changing future climate, is receiving increasing attention. Chapter 4 assesses the uncertainties associated with the parameter calibration of the lumped Xinanjiang hydrological model when assessing the climate change impacts on river flow. The transferability of model parameters was tested in the context of historical climate variability using the differential split-sample test. The parameters calibrated from the periods representing differing climatic conditions were used to project future river flow in a changing climate. The uncertainties in projected future river flows stemming from the choice of calibration periods and parameter equifinality were compared. The results show that the transferability of the parameters calibrated from a wet period to a dry period is poorer than the other way around. The model error as well as the variability in the simulations due to equifinality increase with the increase of the difference in rainfall between the calibration and validation periods. The uncertainty due to the choice of calibration periods takes the majority of the total parameter uncertainty in the projected future mean discharge. When the calibration period contains enough information on climate variability, the equifinality effect and the choice of calibration periods contribute comparable magnitudes of uncertainty in terms of extreme discharge. Five sources of uncertainty mentioned above were compared in Chapter 5, i.e. GCM structure, greenhouse gas emission scenario, downscaling method, choice of period for calibrating the hydrological model, and non-uniqueness of hydrological parameters. Multiple samples of flood frequency curves were generated through the combinations of different emission scenarios, GCMs, downscaling methods and hydrological model settings. All samples were given equal weights in the analysis. The results show that the future flood magnitude is expected to increase, not only due to the increase in mean precipitation, but also due to the increase in variation of precipitation. Nonetheless, there is still a small likelihood that the flood quantiles with a high return period (above 20 years) will decrease in the future. The results of uncertainty comparison suggest that the GCM structure is the dominant source of uncertainty, emission scenarios and empirical statistical downscaling methods also result in considerable uncertainty, and the uncertainties related to hydrological model are less than those related to other uncertainty sources. To guarantee a safe flood defence in a changing environment, the adaptation to climate change needs to be considered in the design of river dikes. However, the large uncertainty in the projections of the future climate leads to varied estimations of future flood probability. How to cope with the uncertainties in future flood probability under climate change is an inevitable question in adaptation decision-makings. In Chapter 6, the uncertainty introduced by climate projections was integrated into the ‘expected predictive flood probability’, and the risk-aversion attitude was introduced in the adaptation of river dikes. The uncertainty in the climate change projections on flood probability was represented by the uncertainty in the parameters of the probabilistic model. This parameter uncertainty was estimated based on the outputs from the GCMs participating in IPCC AR4. The parameter uncertainty, estimated from the selected GCMs under different scenarios, was integrated into the expected predictive probability of flooding, which was then used in the risk-averse economic optimization. Different optimal results were obtained based on varied values of the risk-aversion index which represents the risk-averse altitude of decision makers. The case of a dike ring area in the Bengbu City in the Huai River Basin is studied as an example using the proposed approach. The results show that the uncertainty of climate change decreases the optimal safety level and increases the optimal dike heightening up to 8.23 m (with the risk-aversion index of 1.5) in a gradually changing climate. The value would be even larger if the climate will change sooner. Integrated adaptive measures rather than only dike heightening are needed to respond to the uncertain impacts in the future. The proposed approach enables decision makers to cope with climate change and the associated uncertainty by adjusting the level of risk aversion.","climate change; river flood frequency; uncertainty; adaptatioin","en","doctoral thesis","VSSD","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:ef349716-b484-4820-a02a-d1cd13bc51b8","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:ef349716-b484-4820-a02a-d1cd13bc51b8","Very long term development of the Dutch Inland Waterway Transport System: Policy analysis, transport projections, shipping scenarios, and a new perspective on economic growth and future discounting: Extended summary report","Van Dorsser, J.C.M.","Wolters, M.A. (contributor)","2015","This report, that provides an extended summary of a similar named thesis, addresses how a new method for the evaluation of policies with a very long term impact on the Dutch Inland Waterway Transport (IWT) system can be developed. It proposes an outline for a very long term transport model, prepares a number of very long term scenarios, and indicates that a different perspective on economic growth and future discounting is required to obtain realistic projections and develop sensible policies for issues with a very long term impact.","very long term; inland waterway transport; policy analysis; uncertainty; transport modelling; climate change; intermodal transport; scenario analysis; delta scenarios; economic growth; future discounting","en","report","Rijkswaterstaat","","","","","","","2015-05-13","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:bb8df4dd-f74e-44e6-a229-253d59e60c49","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:bb8df4dd-f74e-44e6-a229-253d59e60c49","The effects of weather and climate change on cycling in Northern Norway","Mathisen, T.A.; Annema, J.A.; Kroesen, M.","","2015","Weather is identified as one of many factors that influence the demand for cycling. Weather patterns will change due to expected climate change. The aim of this article is to study the extent to which climate change influences the cycling frequency. The analysis in this article is conducted using an econometric model based on data spanning over four years on weather indicators and the cycling frequency in the Norwegian city of Bodø, which is located north of the Arctic Circle. According to the projections for climate change, both temperature and quantity of precipitation are expected to increase in this area during the next century. An important consequence of changes in the climate in the studied region is the reduced duration of what can be characterised as the winter season. However, this consequence is highly uncertain. When using Norway’s middle projections for climate change by 2050, the analysis shows a moderate increase in cycling frequency of 6.2%. For the reduced winter period, the cycle rate might be two and three times higher in 2050 compared to the current level. Both estimates assume that every other potential impact on cycling rates remain equal.","bicycle use; climate change; precipitation; temperature; weather indicators; wind speed","en","journal article","Delft University of Technology, Transport and Logistics Group","","","","","","","","Technology, Policy and Management","Engineering Systems and Services","","","",""
"uuid:d45aea59-a449-46ad-ace1-3254529c05f4","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d45aea59-a449-46ad-ace1-3254529c05f4","Fostering Climate Resilient Electricity Infrastructures","Bollinger, L.A.","Weijnen, M.P.C. (promotor); Dijkema, G.P.J. (promotor)","2015","Heat waves, hurricanes, floods and windstorms - recent years have seen dramatic failures in electricity infrastructures sparked by short-term departures of environmental conditions from their norms. Driven by a changing climate, such deviations are anticipated to increase in severity and/or frequency over the coming decades. This will have important implications for the systems that supply and transport our electricity. In light of this, resilience is an essential characteristic of future infrastructure systems. The notion of resilience implicitly accepts the possibility of unforeseen disruptions and failures and focuses on the capacity of systems to handle them - to survive unexpected perturbation, recover from adversity and gracefully degrade - as well as an ability to adapt and learn over time. How can we foster a climate resilient electricity infrastructure in the Netherlands? To address this question, this thesis synthesizes insights from multiple computer models using multiple modeling techniques. These models stress the nature of the electricity infrastructure as a complex and evolving system, interconnected within itself and with other infrastructures. Beyond these insights, the thesis contributes a framework, an approach and a set of tools for supporting the development of climate resilient electricity infrastructures in the Netherlands and elsewhere.","electricity; infrastructure; network; climate change; resilience; modeling & simulation; interdependency","en","doctoral thesis","Next Generation Infrastructures Foundation","","","","","","","","Technology, Policy and Management","ESS","","","",""
"uuid:35bc63d3-c949-48da-8f26-9100836e7c45","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:35bc63d3-c949-48da-8f26-9100836e7c45","Aerosol direct radiative effect of smoke over clouds over the southeast Atlantic Ocean from 2006 to 2009","De Graaf, M.; Bellouin, N.; Tilstra, L.G.; Haywood, J.; Stammes, P.","","2014","The aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE) of African smoke was analyzed in cloud scenes over the southeast Atlantic Ocean, using Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY) satellite observations and Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2 (HadGEM2) climate model simulations. The observed mean DRE was about 30–35 W m?2 in August and September 2006–2009. In some years, short episodes of high-aerosol DRE can be observed, due to high-aerosol loadings, while in other years the loadings are lower but more prolonged. Climate models that use evenly distributed monthly averaged emission fields will not reproduce these high-aerosol loadings. Furthermore, the simulated monthly mean aerosol DRE in HadGEM2 is only about 6?W m?2 in August. The difference with SCIAMACHY mean observations can be partly explained by an underestimation of the aerosol absorption Ångström exponent in the ultraviolet. However, the subsequent increase of aerosol DRE simulation by about 20% is not enough to explain the observed discrepancy between simulations and observations.","clouds; aerosols; climate change; remote sensing","en","journal article","American Geophysical Union","","","","","","","2015-05-11","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Geoscience & Remote Sensing","","","",""
"uuid:c0ec6ef9-dcb7-4d02-a85c-4a3469904901","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:c0ec6ef9-dcb7-4d02-a85c-4a3469904901","Transformations of Urbanising Delta Landscape: An Historic Examination of Dealing with the Impacts of Climate Change for the Kaoping River Delta in Taiwan","Chung, C.K.","Meyer, V.J. (promotor)","2014","This dissertation argues that the floods following extreme precipitation result not only from very heavy rainfall but also from the significant impact of human activities on natural water systems. While most literature emphasizes that the increasing magnitude of storm rainfall extends beyond the original protection standards of hydrological facilities in highly populated delta cities. Based on the knowledge of urban morphology, this study analyses how human systems have affected the transformation of natural water processes in the Kaoping River Delta. The relationship between human environments and natural landscape is illustrated via a 3-layer analytical framework which consists of a natural landscape layer, an infrastructure layer and an occupation layer. This layer-based approach views landscapes as a whole system in which each element interacts with the others. In order to transcend the limitations of traditional urban morphology and the overlay-mapping method, this research initiates an analysis framework with the delta scale from a deductive perspective. Furthermore, it argues that the significant progress of infrastructure technology is the crucial factor to dominate the transformation of modern urban pattern. This influence could be identified by the analytic process of the 3-layer approach from the perspective of the delta or regional scale. This new starting point of a theoretical framework for analyzing urban forms has been proved in the Kaoping Delta case. Furthermore, it could be a new and valid theoretical background to extend the knowledge of urban morphology. The formal transformation of the Kaoping Delta is divided into four main periods, which reveals human activities have affected the operation of natural systems since a century ago. From a delta scale perspective, those effects interacting between different layers can be identified in six different topographies (in italics) of the whole river catchment area. A: The dike system along the main stream in the plains protects delta cities against floods, which enables rapid urbanisation. Population growth in delta cities increases food demand, which causes the intensive agricultural cultivation of mountain areas. B: The dike system narrows the original riverbed in the river basin, which raises the water level of the river during storms. This situation blocks the drainage outlets of delta cities and induces higher frequencies of urban inundations. C: The dike system along the main stream in the plains has significantly changed the surface flowing path of river and dramatically decreased the recharge of groundwater in foothills. It causes serious land subsidence in coastal areas when the ground cannot obtain sufficient groundwater. D: The dike system and the bridges of transportation crossing river has resulted in the lag-sedimentation of the river in the river basin. When a significant amount of river sand deposits in the riverbed rather than being transited to the estuary to supply the demand for sand along the coast, it induces serious erosion in the coast. Following this context, this study organised a five day workshop in Kaohsiung, ‘Workshop on Water Environment Development in Kaohsiung’ in 2012 to further examine the results derived from Chapters 3 and 4, and to demonstrate how a 3-layer approach can work between multiple disciplines as a platform for collaboration. This workshop followed the theoretical framework of the 3-layers to explore the entire Kaoping River catchment area and its two tributary basins as the chosen local-scale sites: the Meinong River and the Love River. This workshop gives the best demonstration of how to practically utilise the 3-layer approach to organize multidisciplinary work, and then to make an integrated plan. The results and process of this workshop are also generalised as a framework, which could be applied to other cases.","delta urbanism; layer approach; climat change; extreme rainfall; human disaster","en","doctoral thesis","","","","","","","","","Architecture and The Built Environment","Urbanism","","","",""
"uuid:460a62f7-233e-404d-8a59-4571f13b61c4","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:460a62f7-233e-404d-8a59-4571f13b61c4","Innovations in building regulation and control for advancing sustainability in buildings (I)","Meacham, B.; Visscher, H.J.; Meijer, F.M.; Chan, C.; Chan, E.; Laubscher, J.; Neng Kwei Sung, J.; Dodds, B.; Serra, J.; Tenorio, J.A.; Echeverria, J.B.; Sanches-Ostiz, A.","","2014","This session brings together policy-makers, government officials, researchers and others to present perspectives on how innovation in building regulation and control, such as performancebased approaches, are currently being used to advance sustainability concepts in buildings, and where and how we might see further innovation in the coming years. In this grouping of session papers, representatives of the Inter-jurisdictional Regulatory Collaboration Committee (IRCC) and the International Council for Research and Innovation in Building and Construction (CIB) Task Group 79 discuss a range of policies implements in their countries or the focus of research and development in their respective countries. Related papers can be found in the corresponding set of session papers (Innovations in Building Regulation and Control for Advancing Sustainability in Buildings (II)).","building regulatory systems; building control; performance-based; sustainability; climate change; resiliency","en","conference paper","Green Building Council España","","","","","","","","Architecture and The Built Environment","OTB","","","",""
"uuid:022b3f35-cfdc-41d1-b4da-4c4dee3a95a3","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:022b3f35-cfdc-41d1-b4da-4c4dee3a95a3","Water Tower of the Yellow River in a Changing Climate: Toward an integrated assessment","Hu, Y.","Uhlenbrook, S. (promotor)","2014","Climate change due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions is likely to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large impacts on water resources worldwide. Mountain regions are important sources of freshwater for the entire globe, but their role in global water resources could be significantly altered by climate change. Mountains are expected to be more sensitive and vulnerable to global climate change than other land surface at the same latitude owing to the highly heterogeneous physiographic and climatic settings. Furthermore, there is also evidence from observational and modelling studies for an elevation-dependent warming within some mountain regions. With the increasing certainty of global climate change, it is important to understand how climate will change in the 21st century and how these changes will impact water resources in these mountain regions. Our understanding of climate change and the associated impacts on water availability in mountains is restricted due to inadequacies in observations and models. This is also the case in the Yellow River source region (YRSR). The YRSR is often referred to as the water tower of the Yellow River as it contributes about 35% of the total annual runoff of the entire Yellow River. Located in the northeast Tibetan Plateau, a “climate change hot-spot” and one of the most sensitive areas to greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced global warming, the potential impacts of climate change on water resources in this region could be significant with unknown consequences for water availability in the entire Yellow River basin. The YRSR is relatively undisturbed by anthropogenic influences such as abstractions and damming, which enables the characterization of largely natural, climate-driven changes. A growing number of studies suggest that the YRSR is experiencing warming and streamflow reduction in recent decades, which has drawn increasing attention about the future climate changes and their impacts on water availability. While most previous studies focused on historical changes in the mean values of hydroclimatic conditions, future climate change impacts were less explored. Additionally, compared to assessing the impact of a change in average hydroclimatic condition, changes in extremes were solely missing in this region in spite of high relevance of such events on our society. This study attempts to fill these research gaps by investigating the spatial and temporal variability of both recent and future climate change impacts with specific focus on extremes. An integrated approach is applied consisting of (i) statistical analysis of historic data, (ii) downscaling of large-scale climate projections and (iii) hydrological modelling. This study contributes towards an improved understanding of spatial and temporal variability of climate change impacts in the YRSR through four major topics. The first topic focuses on the assessment of recent climate change impacts in the YRSR. Historical trends in a number of temperature, rainfall and streamflow indices representing both mean values and extreme events are analyzed over the last 50 years. The linkages between hydrological and climatic variables are also explored to better understand the nature of recent observed changes in hydrological variables. Significant warming trends have been observed for the whole study region. This warming is mainly attributed to the increase in the minimum temperature as a result of the increase in magnitude and decrease in frequency of low temperature events. In contrast to the temperature indices, the trends in rainfall indices are less distinct. However, on a basin scale increasing trends are observed in winter and spring rainfall. Conversely, the frequency and contribution of moderately heavy rainfall events to total rainfall show a significant decreasing trend in summer. In general, the YRSR is characterized by an overall tendency towards decreasing water availability, which is shown by decreasing trends in a number of indices in the observed discharge at the outlet of basin over the period 1959–2008. The hydrological variables studied are closely related to precipitation in the wet season (June, July, August and September), indicating that the widespread decrease in wet season precipitation is expected to be associated with significant decrease in streamflow. To conclude, this study shows that over the past decades the YRSR has become warmer and experienced some seasonally varying changes in rainfall, which also supports an emerging global picture of warming and the prevailing positive trends in winter rainfall extremes over the mid-latitudinal land areas of the Northern Hemisphere. The decreasing precipitation, particularly in the wet season, along with increasing temperature can be associated with pronounced decrease in water resources, posing a significant challenge to downstream water uses. In the second topic, three statistical downscaling methods are compared with regard to their ability to downscale summer (June–September) daily precipitation to a network of 14 stations over the Yellow River source region from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data with the aim of constructing high-resolution regional precipitation scenarios for impact studies. The methods used are the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM), the Generalized LInear Model for daily CLIMate (GLIMCLIM) and the non-homogeneous Hidden Markov Model (NHMM). The methods are compared using several criteria, such as spatial dependence, wet and dry spell length distributions and inter-annual variability. In comparison with other two models, NHMM shows better performance in reproducing the spatial correlation structure, inter-annual variability and magnitude of the observed precipitation. But its performance is less satisfactory in reproducing observed wet and dry spell length distributions at some stations. SDSM and GLIMCLIM showed better performance in reproducing the temporal dependence than NHMM. These models are also applied to derive future scenarios for six precipitation indices for the period 2046-2065 using the predictors from two global climate models (GCMs; CGCM3 and ECHAM5) under the IPCC SRES A2, A1B and B1scenarios. There is a strong consensus among two GCMs, three downscaling methods and three emission scenarios in the precipitation change signal. Under the future climate scenarios considered, all parts of the study region would experience increases in rainfall totals and extremes that are statistically significant at most stations. The magnitude of the projected changes is more intense for the SDSM than for other two models, which indicates that climate projection based on results from only one downscaling method should be interpreted with caution. The increase in the magnitude of rainfall totals and extremes is also accompanied by an increase in their inter-annual variability. In the third topic, we investigate possible changes in mean and extreme temperature indices and their elevation dependency over the YRSR for the two future periods 2046–2065 and 2081–2100 using statistically downscaled outputs from two CGMs under three IPCC SRES emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). The projections show that by the middle and end of the 21st century all parts of the study region may experience increases in both mean and extreme temperature in all seasons, along with an increase in the frequency of hot days and warm nights and decrease in frost days. By the end of the 21st century, inter-annual variability increases in the frequency of hot days and warm nights in all seasons. The frost days show decreasing inter-annual variability in spring and increasing one in summer. Six out of eight temperature indices in autumn show significant increasing changes with elevation. The fourth topic presents a modelling study on the spatial and temporal variability of the future climate-induced hydrologic changes in the YRSR. A fully distributed, physically based hydrologic model (WaSiM) was employed to simulate baseline (1961-1990) and future (2046–2065 and 2081–2100) hydrologic regimes based on climate change scenarios. The climate chance scenarios are statistically downscaled from two GCM outputs under three emissions scenarios (B1, A1B and A2). All climate change projections used here show yearround increases in both precipitation and temperature, which result in significant increases in streamflow and evaporation on both annual and seasonal basis. High flow is expected to increase considerably in most projections, whereas low flow is expected to increase slightly. Snow storage is projected to considerably decrease while the peak flow is likely to occur later. We also observe a significant increase in soil moisture on annual basis owing to increased precipitation. Overall, the projected increases in all the hydro-climatic variables considered are greater for the mid of the century than for the end of the century. The magnitude of the projected changes varies across the subbasins, and is different under different emission scenarios and GCMs, indicating the uncertainty involved in the impact analysis. Inconsistency of observed streamflow trends with future projections indicates that the recently observed streamflow trends cannot be used as an illustration of plausible expected future changes in the YRSR. Such inconsistency calls for an urgent need for research aiming to reconcile the historical changes with future projections. This study has covered a wide range of topics and a number of relevant issues of hydrology, climate change and downscaling in mountain areas. The applied multidisciplinary approach has clearly added value and provided new insights (e.g. multisite downscaling in a mountainous catchment, climate-induced changes in extremes) and opened many new avenues for scientific research in the future to be explored including investigating the potential feedbacks between land cover change and climate change and reconciling the observed trends with future projections. In general, the knowledge generated in this study can be used as the basis of local scale adaptive water resources management in a changing climate.","climate change impacts","en","doctoral thesis","CRC Press/Balkema","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Water Management","","","",""
"uuid:e6ae1e15-a21e-4ec0-868f-294b4e026447","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:e6ae1e15-a21e-4ec0-868f-294b4e026447","Spatial planning and urban resilience in the context of flood risk: A comparative study of Kaohsiung, Tainan and Rotterdam","Lu, P.","Nadin, V. (promotor); Stead, D. (promotor)","2014","Spatial planning is increasingly being considered as an important mechanism in coping with flood risk due to climate change. One of the reasons for this is that engineering approaches are increasingly expensive and cannot provide complete certainty of protection against climate-related floods. The thesis examines whether and how spatial planning is used in urban areas to promote resilience to flood risk and climate change. In this study, planning is considered as the regulation of physical implementation as well as the process of policy-making that guides spatial development. This process mainly involves the interaction and collaboration between actors (both public and private). The notion of resilience is being used more and more in discussions of complex issues like the impact of climate-related flood risks on spatial development. The interpretations of resilience can vary significantly depending on the local context, the focus of spatial development and the interests of the actors involved in decision- making. The study proposes six characteristics of planning decision-making that can help to promote the resilience of cities. These comprise: (i) considering the current situation, (ii) examining trends and future threats, (iii) learning from previous experience, (iv) setting goals, (v) initiating actions, and (vi) involving the public. The importance of these characteristics over time for policy and practice is examined according to empirical evidence from detailed case study analysis. Six case studies are presented, four in Taiwan and two in the Netherlands. In all of the case studies, the issue of flood risk and spatial development is considered important by policy- makers, but the planning strategies used to tackle climate-related flood risks are often different, as are the experiences of flooding and governance arrangements. The information gathered is primarily based on interviews and the review of planning policies, government reports and research documents. Comparative analysis is a central focus of the study. The analysis has both a national and international perspective, comparing cases within Taiwan and between Taiwan and the Netherlands. The national comparison examines the way in which local planning governance is addressed in shaping decisions to deal with flood risks. This can vary among cases which share similar spatial development objectives and national institutional framework. The international comparison between Taiwan and the Netherlands examines the roles of planning to promote urban resilience in the context of flood risk and climate change. Three conclusions can be drawn. First, the interpretation of resilience is dependent on the views and interests of the actors involved. These change over time and can be seen in different episodes of policy-making. Second, the importance of the different assessment characteristics varies from one case to another. The interests of the leading actors, the interpretations of flood risks and the framework of local collaboration are all major factors that shape these differences. These factors are often associated with planning traditions and relatively stable in resistant to change. Third, when there is a collaborative framework for planning involving multiple actors, the result is a more comprehensive set of strategies in dealing with flood risk.","spatial planning; urban resilience; flood risk; comparison; Kaohsiung; Tainan; Rotterdam; climate change; urbanism","en","doctoral thesis","abe.tudelft.nl","","","","","","","2014-08-29","Architecture and The Built Environment","Urbanism","","","",""
"uuid:ae3e1d1a-fefc-4a05-96a7-978bc2c902f4","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:ae3e1d1a-fefc-4a05-96a7-978bc2c902f4","The pattern of anthropogenic signal emergence in Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance","Fyke, J.G.; Vizcaino, M.; Lipscomb, W.H.","","2014","Surface mass balance (SMB) trends influence observed Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass loss, but the component of these trends related to anthropogenic forcing is unclear. Here we study the simulated spatial pattern of emergence of an anthropogenically derived GrIS SMB signal between 1850 and 2100 using the Community Earth System Model. We find emergence timing heterogeneity, with a bimodal structure reflecting interior snowfall increases against a background of low SMB variability, and peripheral surface melting increases against a backdrop of high SMB variability. We also find a nonemerging intermediate region. We conclude that (1) a bimodal pattern of GrIS SMB change will unambiguously reflect the impact of anthropogenic forcing; (2) present-day peripheral and interior SMB trends likely have an underlying anthropogenically forced component; (3) local emergence occurs well before emergence of a spatially integrated signal; and (4) the GrIS summit region may be an ideal location for monitoring regional/global climate change.","Greenland; surface mass balance; anthropogenic signal; climate change; cryosphere","en","journal article","American Geophysical Union","","","","","","","2015-02-18","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Geoscience & Remote Sensing","","","",""
"uuid:a8c9c5d6-fb18-433b-a801-b7bb9060badb","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:a8c9c5d6-fb18-433b-a801-b7bb9060badb","Adaptation of interconnected infrastructures to climate change: A socio-technical systems perspective","Chappin, E.J.L.; Van der Lei, T.","","2014","Climate change is likely to affect how society will function in this century. Because climate change effects may be severe, a next step is to study not only the effects on natural systems, but also the effects on built infrastructure systems and, in response to anticipated effects, the adaptation of those systems. Studies that discuss interconnected infrastructures, society's backbones, in light of climate change are emerging. We apply a socio-technical systems perspective in order to gain insight into the effects of climate change on our infrastructure systems and possible adaption strategies for the coming decades. We use this perspective to collect and describe the literature on adaptation of infrastructures to climate change. We find that the analysed papers predominantly focus on specific geographic areas and that various types of impacts on and interdependencies of built socio-technical systems are recognized, not only for energy and transport, but also for water infrastructures. A missing step is the modelling of adaptation measures. Recent literature enables an exploration of strategies for adaptation, which should be expected in the coming years.","adaptation; climate change; infrastructures; literature review; socio-technical systems","en","journal article","Elsevier","","","","","","","","Technology, Policy and Management","Engineering, Systems and Services","","","",""
"uuid:47a7e309-db58-45cb-9777-20d650f8cd8e","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:47a7e309-db58-45cb-9777-20d650f8cd8e","Fit for purpose? Building and evaluating a fast, integrated model for exploring water policy pathways","Haasnoot, M.; Van Deursen, W.P.A.; Guillaume, J.H.A.; Kwakkel, J.H.; Van Beek, E.; Middelkoop, H.","","2014","Exploring adaptation pathways is an emerging approach for supporting decision making under uncertain changing conditions. An adaptation pathway is a sequence of policy actions to reach specified objectives. To develop adaptation pathways, interactions between environment and policy response need to be analysed over time for an ensemble of plausible futures. A fast, integrated model can facilitate this. Here, we describe the development and evaluation of such a model, an Integrated Assessment Metamodel (IAMM), to explore adaptation pathways in the Rhine delta for a decision problem currently faced by the Dutch Government. The theory-motivated metamodel is a simplified physically based model. Closed questions reflecting the required accuracy were used to evaluate the model's fitness. The results show that such a model fits the purpose of screening and ranking of policy options and pathways to support the strategic decision making. A complex model can subsequently be used to obtain more detailed information.","integrated assessment; metamodel; water management; uncertainty; climate change adaptation; Rhine","en","journal article","Elsevier","","","","","","","","Technology, Policy and Management","Multi Actor Systems","","","",""
"uuid:11b2d92d-e044-43fc-a127-b135ba478bcb","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:11b2d92d-e044-43fc-a127-b135ba478bcb","Coping with coastal change","Nicholls, R.J.; Stive, M.J.F.; Tol, R.S.J.","","2014","The coastal zone is one of the most dynamic environments on our planet and is much affected by global change, especially sea-level rise. Coastal environments harbour valuable ecosystems, but they are also hugely important from a societal point of view. This book, which draws on the expertise of 21 leading international coastal scientists, represents an up-to-date account of coastal environments and past, present and future impacts of global change. The first chapter of the book outlines key principles that underpin coastal systems and their behaviour. This is followed by a discussion of key processes, including sea level change, sedimentation, storms, waves and tides, that drive coastal change. The main part of the book consists of a discussion of the main coastal environments (beaches, dunes, barriers, salt marshes, tidal flats, estuaries, coral reefs, deltas, rocky and glaciated coasts and coastal groundwater), and how these are affected by global change. The final chapter highlights strategies for coping with coastal change. This chapter focusses on how to cope with coastal change and its implications. There are two major types of response: (1) Mitigation represents source control of drivers, such as greenhouse gas emissions and groundwater withdrawal (leading to artificial subsidence). (2) Adaptation refers to behavioural changes that range from individual actions through to collective coastal management policy, such as upgraded defence systems, warning systems and land management approaches. Thus, mitigation addresses the causes of coastal change, whereas adaptation deals with the consequences. This chapter is structured as follows. First, the different drivers of coastal change are briefly reviewed.Then the impacts of coastal change are briefly considered from a physical and a socio-economic perspective, including drawing on experience from locations of rapid change, such as deltas and subsiding cities, and considering direct and indirect impacts. This is followed by a discussion of the responses to the challenges of coastal change, with an emphasis on adaptation, including its implications for coastal zone management. This includes consideration of valuation methods and decision analysis approaches.","climate change; coastal adaptation; coastal zone management; sea level rise","en","book chapter","John Wiley and Sons Ltd","","","","","","Campus only","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:bc6a5558-3de7-4c5f-9356-552d9d74383e","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:bc6a5558-3de7-4c5f-9356-552d9d74383e","Space-time variation of hydrological processes and water resources in Rwanda: Focus on the Migina catchment","Munyaneza, O.","Uhlenbrook, S. (promotor)","2014","This book presents the hydrological research carried out in the Migina catchment (260 km2), Southern Rwanda. The main objective of the research is to explore the hydrological trends and climate linkages for catchments in Rwanda (26,338 km2), and to contribute to the understanding of dominant hydrological process interactions. Different hydro-meteorological instrumentations have been installed in the Migina catchment during April 2009 to July 2009 and measurements have been carried out and are still ongoing. The trend analysis is based on Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Pettitt test on times series data varying from 30 to 56 years before 2000. The hydrometric data and modern tracer methods are used for hydrograph separation and show that subsurface runoff is dominating the total discharge even during rainy seasons of May 2010 and 2011 at Cyihene-Kansi and Migina sub-catchments, respectively. Further, a semi-distributed conceptual hydrological model HEC-HMS is applied for assessing the spatio-temporal variation of water resources in the Migina catchment. The model results are compared with tracer based hydrograph separation results in terms of the runoff components. The model performed reasonably well in simulating the total flow volume, peak flow and timing as well as the portion of direct runoff and baseflow.","climate change; HEC-HMS; hydrological modelling; Migina catchment; Rwanda; runoff components; tracer method; trend analysis; water resources","en","doctoral thesis","CRC Press/Balkema","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Water Management","","","",""
"uuid:0cbaeec4-f8c2-4523-a50a-8946606be023","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:0cbaeec4-f8c2-4523-a50a-8946606be023","Scenarios for effective climate change adaptation in Dutch social housing","Roders, M.J.; Straub, A.","","2014","Housing managers are constantly confronted with the changing demands that their building stock has to comply with. One of the change agents is the changing climate, caused primarily by human induced greenhouse gases. Though, even if the emissions of all these gases could now be put to a hold, the process of climate change would not completely cease. Furthermore, the impacts of climate change would most probably be felt for many more years. In urban areas, the impacts are drought, flooding caused by extreme precipitation and heat stress caused by the urban heat island effect. Besides threatening the building stock, climate change is also threatening the quality of life of people in urban environments. In the Netherlands, housing associations are responsible for managing the social housing stock and maintaining their quality of life. Research has proven they are not yet aware of the challenge that lies ahead to adapt their dwellings to a changing climate. Considering the focus on the physical adaptations of the building stock, it was chosen to discuss in this paper the effectiveness of three types of governance strategies that housing associations can directly apply in their maintenance processes. The governance strategies are hypothesised based on research results of earlier studies on the implementation of climate change adaptations in social housing. The strategies are: S1. Take up climate adaptation in the policy developments that guide the overall management of the stock; S2. Involving actors that traditionally stand aside the construction process, such as insurance companies and water boards; S3. Emphasising performance-based procurement stimulating the execution of the projects in a partnering approach. The effectiveness of the strategies was tested by means of a SWOT analysis per strategy with practitioners. Results are five scenarios, based on the combinations of strategies that are potentially feasible for the implementation of climate change adaptation measures in the Dutch social housing stock. A crucial factor in the scenarios is collaboration, because nowadays a housing association is not (financially) capable of assuming the responsibility of climate proofing its housing stock all by itself.","adaptation; climate Change; construction Process; policy Development; social Housing","en","conference paper","CIB/The University of Salford","","","","","","","","Architecture and The Built Environment","OTB","","","",""
"uuid:fe695660-3965-4f0c-90ca-1a3d7bfaacbd","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:fe695660-3965-4f0c-90ca-1a3d7bfaacbd","Accelerated lake expansion on the Tibetan Plateau in the 2000s: Induced by glacial melting or other processes?","Song, C.; Huang, B.; Richards, K.; Ke, L.; Phan Hien, V.","","2014","ccelerated lake expansion in the 2000s has been confirmed by both dramatic lake-area increases (for 312 lakes larger than 10 km2) derived from optical images, and rapid water-level rises (for 117 lakes with water-level data) measured by satellite altimetry. However, the underlying climate causes remain unclear. This paper analyzes the relationship between the water-level changes of lakes on the plateau and the potential driving factors, such as the glacier meltwater supply and a dependency on precipitation and runoff over the whole plateau and in each zone. The results show that the rates of change of non-glacier-fed lakes in the 2000s were as high as those of glacier-fed lakes across the whole plateau and the lake-level changes were closely associated with the lake supply coefficients (the basin/lake area ratio). The lake variations agreed well with the spatial pattern of precipitation changes. However, in different zones, especially at around 33°N north of the plateau, glacier-fed lakes did exhibit faster lake level increases than no-glacier-fed lakes, indicating that the presence of a glacier meltwater supply augmented the precipitation-driven lake expansions in these areas. Despite the absence of quantitative modeling due to limited data availability, this study provides qualitative support that the lake expansions on the Tibetan Plateau in the 2000s have been driven primarily by changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration and not solely by the effect of glacier wastage.","lake; Tibetan Plateau; water level; glacier; climate change","en","journal article","American Geophysical Union","","","","","","","2014-10-10","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Geoscience & Remote Sensing","","","",""
"uuid:e9a77f9e-0ce4-4683-a2e0-dcaf65527398","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:e9a77f9e-0ce4-4683-a2e0-dcaf65527398","The potential role of wood acetylation in climate change mitigation","Van der Lugt, P.; Vogtländer, J.G.; Alexander, J.; Bongers, F.; Stebbins, H.","","2014","In a carbon footprint assessment, the greenhouse gas emissions during the life cycle of a material can be measured, and compared to alternative products in terms of kg CO2 equivalent. If applied correctly, wood acetylation opens up a range of new innovative applications in which high performance yet carbon intensive non-renewable materials such as metals, plastics and concrete may be replaced by abundantly available nondurable wood species. To better understand the difference in greenhouse gas emissions of Accoya® wood (acetylated non-durable wood) and relevant alternative materials (steel, concrete, plastics, hardwood), this study first presents the emissions based on a cradle-to-gate scenario, thus including all emissions (sourcing, transport, processing, etc.) until the factory gate, for Accoya® wood based on the latest production figures for various suitable species. As the cradle-to-gate assessment excludes use-phase and endof- life related aspects such as material use, durability, maintenance, recycling scenarios and carbon sequestration, the second part of this study takes the production results as input for an assessment of the full life cycle (cradle-to-grave) with a typical window frame as unit of comparison. The results show that if lifespan considerations are included, Accoya® wood has a considerably lower carbon footprint than non-renewable materials and unsustainably sourced hardwood, and is competitive in terms of carbon footprint with sustainably sourced hardwood. Because of the limited emissions during production and carbon credits related to temporary carbon storage and bio-energy production during End of Life, all sustainably sourced wood alternatives, including Accoya® wood, are even CO2 negative over the full life cycle. The final part of this paper puts these outcomes in a global perspective and discusses the potential implications large scale acetylation could have in reducing greenhouse gas emissions worldwide.","acetylated wood; carbon footprint; climate change mitigation; green building; greenhouse gas emissions","en","conference paper","","","","","","","","","Industrial Design Engineering","Industrial Design","","","",""
"uuid:b78d47bd-57bd-49f2-9c2b-d582dc7bd7cd","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:b78d47bd-57bd-49f2-9c2b-d582dc7bd7cd","Delivering Integrated Flood Risk Management: Governance for collaboration, learning and adaptation","Van Herk, S.","Zevenbergen, C. (promotor); Ashley, R.A. (promotor)","2014","The frequency and consequences of extreme flood events have increased rapidly worldwide in recent decades and climate change and economic growth are likely to exacerbate this trend. Flood protection measures alone cannot accommodate the future frequencies and impacts of flooding. Integrated flood risk management (IFRM) considers a portfolio of measures to reduce flood risk that comprises flood protection, but also land use planning and emergency management. The implementation of IFRM policies and projects is not straightforward and guidance is lacking. IFRM requires collaboration between multiple disciplines and by a group of stakeholders with various interests and means. The stakeholders have to combine objectives and funding from different policy domains and consider a range of possible options at all spatial scale levels and for various time horizons. Moreover the overarching societal system and its incumbent cultures, structures and practices are yet unfit for IFRM. This dissertation provides guidance for IFRM: governance arrangements for planning processes; for stimulating learning and collaboration; for adaptation of the physical (natural and man-made) and societal systems. It presents 4 appealing case studies from the Netherlands. This work brings new insights to the scientific domains of inter alia: flood risk management; adaptive co-management; and transition management, particularly through their mutual enrichment.","integrated flood risk management; governance; collaboration; learning; adaptation; climate change","en","doctoral thesis","CRC Press/Balkema, Taylor & Francis Group","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:d9d652e3-0ba5-403e-b367-51061e676eae","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d9d652e3-0ba5-403e-b367-51061e676eae","Future climate warming increases Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance variability","Fyke, J.G.; Vizcaino, M.; Lipscomb, W.; Price, S.","","2014","The integrated surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has large interannual variability. Long-term future changes to this variability will affect GrIS dynamics, freshwater fluxes, regional oceanography, and detection of changes in ice volume trends. Here we analyze a simulated 1850–2100 GrIS SMB time series from the Community Earth System Model, currently the only global climate model that realistically simulates GrIS SMB. We find a significant increase in interannual integrated SMB variability over time, which we attribute primarily to a shift to a high-variability melt-dominated SMB regime due to GrIS ablation area growth. We find temporal increases to characteristic ablation and accumulation area-specific SMB variabilities to be of secondary importance. Since ablation area SMB variability is driven largely by variability in summer surface melt, variability in the climate processes regulating the energy fluxes that control melting will likely increasingly determine future GrIS SMB variability.","Greenland ice sheet; climate change; climate variability; climate modeling","en","journal article","American Geophysical Union","","","","","","","2014-07-21","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Geoscience & Remote Sensing","","","",""
"uuid:8931586d-b653-42e7-806c-a6bea9ef6202","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:8931586d-b653-42e7-806c-a6bea9ef6202","Extreme precipitation response to climate perturbations in an atmospheric mesoscale model","Attema, J.J.; Loriaux, J.M.; Lenderink, G.","","2014","Observations of extreme (sub) hourly precipitation at midlatitudes show a large dependency on the dew point temperature often close to 14% per degree—2 times the dependency of the specific humidity on dew point temperature which is given by the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) relation. By simulating a selection of 11 cases over the Netherlands characterized by intense showers, we investigate this behavior in the nonhydrostatic weather prediction model Harmonie at a resolution of 2.5 km. These experiments are repeated using perturbations of the atmospheric profiles of temperature and humidity: (i) using an idealized approach with a 2º warmer (colder) atmosphere assuming constant relative humidity, and (ii) using changes in temperature and humidity derived from a long climate change simulation at 2º global warming. All perturbations have a difference in the local dew point temperature compared to the reference of approximately 2º. Differences are considerable between the cases, with dependencies ranging from almost zero to an increase of 18% per degree rise of the dew point temperature. On average however, we find an increase of extreme precipitation intensity of 11% per degree for the idealized perturbation, and 9% per degree for the climate change perturbation. For the most extreme events these dependencies appear to approach a rate of 11–14% per degree, in closer agreement with the observed relation.","precipitation; extremes; convection; climate change; nonhydrostatic; meso scale modelling","en","journal article","Institute of Physics","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Geoscience & Remote Sensing","","","",""
"uuid:c003b30e-99e0-4651-9512-5c8af5c437ae","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:c003b30e-99e0-4651-9512-5c8af5c437ae","Effects of Climate Change on Drinking Water Distribution Network Integrity: Predicting Pipe Failure Resulting from Differential Soil Settlement","Wols, B.A.; Van Daal, K.; Van Thienen, P.","","2014","Climate change may result in lowering of ground water levels and consolidation of the soil. The resulting (differential) settlements, associated with soil property transitions, may damage underground pipe infrastructure, such as drinking water distribution sys- tems. The work presented here offers an approach for the prediction of pipe failure under conditions of differential settlement. A probabilistic model for pipe failure has been implemented in a geographical information system (GIS) environment. The GIS tool uses information on the drinking water distribution system, soil properties and expected soil settlements to predict pipe bending stresses in a probabilistic framework, so that the vulnerability of a drinking water distribution network towards soil settlements can be assessed. This model approach allows water companies to perform a quick scan of their drinking water distribution network integrity towards different expected climate scenarios","pipe stresses; pipe failure; climate change; soil settlements; GIS","en","journal article","Elsevier","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Water Management","","","",""
"uuid:1dfa7266-f804-45fa-8f10-7abfcb2496af","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:1dfa7266-f804-45fa-8f10-7abfcb2496af","Optimisation of Heating Energy Demand and Thermal Comfort of a Courtyard-Atrium Dwelling","Taleghani, M.; Tenpierik, M.; Dobbelsteen, A.","","2013","In the light of energy reduction, transitional spaces are recognised as ways to receive natural light and fresh air. This paper analyses the effects of courtyard and atrium as two types of transitional spaces on heating demand and thermal comfort of a Dutch low-rise dwelling, at current and future climate in 2050. The inclusion of a courtyard within a reference Dutch terraced dwelling showed an increase in annual heating energy demand and a decrease in the number of discomfort hours. In contrast, covering the courtyard and making an atrium led to reduction in the heating demand but more discomfort hours. Results showed that using a courtyard in May through October and covering that (as an atrium) for the rest of the year is the most efficient situation in the Netherlands","heating demand; indoor thermal comfort; courtyard; atrium; climate change","en","conference paper","PLEA","","","","","","","","Architecture","Architectural Engineering +Technology","","","",""
"uuid:1672f112-00f8-4cf6-b6fe-934086389684","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:1672f112-00f8-4cf6-b6fe-934086389684","Resilience to flooding: Draft building code","Clarkson, J.D.; Braun, K.; Desoto-Duncan, A.; Forsyth, G.; De Gijt, J.G.; Huber, N.P.; Miller, D.; Rigo, P.; Sullivan, D.","","2013","A significant issue associated Flood Defence Systems (FDS) is the difficulty of predicting how these structures will behave when inevitably they have been loaded beyond their designed capacity by a flood. The flood can cause these structures to fail catastrophically with loss of life and substantial damage to property. For a limited incremental investment, by including resilient features shown in this document, the FDS can dramatically lessen the chances for loss of life and property damage. While not a building code, the following provides guidance on how to improve the resilience of FDS so they will not fail catastrophically when overloaded beyond their designed capacity. Of all ""lessons learnt"" most important is to explicitly incorporate the consequences of failure and the possibility of being wrong in one's assumptions into the design process. Building in the flood plain will always have risk; the public should not become over confident just because a FDS is place. While it is recognized that an Integrated Water Basin perspective would include retention zones, restricted developments in flood plains, land use planning, awareness raising, flood resistant construction, drainage and water storage improvement, effective evacuation planning and other measures.","climate change; catastrophic failure; draft building code; flood defence system; flood resilience","en","conference paper","Centre for Water Systems, University of Exeter","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:02586292-8ff1-4c20-bca4-bea2f5a56677","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:02586292-8ff1-4c20-bca4-bea2f5a56677","Coping with the uncertainties in the climate change adaptation of river dikes using risk-aversion economic optimization","Wang, L.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.; Vrijling, J.K.; Ranasinghe, R.W.M.R.J.B.; Maskey, S.","","2013","To guarantee a safe flood defence in a changing environment, the adaptation to climate change needs to be considered in the design of river dikes. However, the large uncertainty in the projections of future climate leads to varied estimations of future flood probability. How to cope with the uncertainties in future flood probability under climate change is an inevitable question in the adaptation. In this paper, the uncertainty introduced by climate projections was integrated into the ‘expected predictive flood probability’, and the risk-aversion attitude was introduced in the adaptation of river dikes. In detail, the uncertain effect of climate change on flood probability was represented by the uncertainty in the parameters of the probabilistic model. This parameter uncertainty was estimated based on the outputs from the GCMs participated in IPCC AR4. The parameter uncertainty estimated from different GCMs under selected scenarios was integrated into the expected predictive probability of flooding, which was used in the risk-aversion economic optimization. Different optimal results were obtained based on varied values of the risk-aversion index. The case of Bengbu Dike in China was studied as an example using the proposed approach. The results show that the uncertain effect of climate change causes an increase of optimal dike height but a decrease of the optimal safety level. The proposed approach enables decision makers to cope with the uncertain effects of climate change by adjusting their risk-aversion attitude.","climate change; uncertainty; risk-aversion optimisation","en","conference paper","European Water Resources Association (EWRA)","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:ffd317ac-32a4-4fe4-a183-8590aefe34e8","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:ffd317ac-32a4-4fe4-a183-8590aefe34e8","The central role of the construction sector for climate change adaptions in the built environment","Roders, M.J.; Straub, A.; Visscher, H.J.","","2013","Over the past years, research has clearly enunciated the necessity of adaptation to climate change in the built environment. Policy is being developed on national and municipal levels to have adaptations implemented. However, for the actual application of the measures, property owners are the actors that have to commission the construction industry to take action. But the construction sector is highly fragmented, causing several barriers for an easy uptake of measures other than the ‘business as usual’ ones. Based on rehabilitation intervention processes where technical measures are applied to dwellings of a housing association in the Netherlands, a governance approach for implementing adaptation measures is explored that focuses on collaboration in the construction process. In the proposed approach actors are working closely together, guided by elements of network governance. By not only integrating the complete supply chain, but also making it ‘intelligent and aware’, climate adaptation is no longer a surplus to the process, but reflected in any decision.","adaptation measures; climate change; construction process; networks","en","conference paper","International Council for Research and Innovation in Building and Construction (CIB)","","","","","","","","OTB Research Institute for the Built Environment","OTB Research","","","",""
"uuid:f9b87498-55dd-4db2-96ae-2e2db5b18b2a","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:f9b87498-55dd-4db2-96ae-2e2db5b18b2a","Spatial Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Urbanized Delta Territories as a Tool for Planning: The Case of the Lower Parana Delta","Zagare, V.M.E.","","2012","This paper presents the spatial implication of climate change-related variables and the role of the representation and analysis of the data as a tool for the development of planning policies in urbanized deltas. The presentation illustrates some partial and preliminary results of a broader investigation regarding socio-economic variables too, in order to analyze the spatial impact of changes in deltaic systems. In the deltas’ territories, a complex relation between urban patterns and the natural environment takes place. In order to reach successful adaptation policies regarding climate change and urban growth, it is necessary to implement new methodologies to take into account the spatial impacts of each driver and prepare for possible future scenarios. The study is based on the territory of the Lower Parana Delta and the coast of Buenos Aires province, which are complex lands that are very vulnerable to extreme climate events. Specifically, the case study is the coastal Municipality of Tigre, which is being rapidly transformed by natural and urban drivers and suffers the pressures of the demographic growth of Buenos Aires’s Metropolitan Area and the deep consequences of climate events.","climate change effects; urban planning and design; urbanized deltas; planning policies","en","journal article","Common Ground Publishing","","","","","","","","Architecture","Urbanism","","","",""
"uuid:322af637-17d2-430b-bb1e-839031081bc0","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:322af637-17d2-430b-bb1e-839031081bc0","Scenario based learning regarding contested articulations of sustainability: The example of hydropower and Sweden's energy future","Mulder, K.F.; Petrik, O.; Parandian, A.; Grondahl, F.","","2012","Providing electricity from renewable sources is of key importance both to reduce depletion of fossil fuels and reduce emissions of greenhouse gasses. Many of the renewable energy technologies are not ideal for electricity networks. Reservoir hydropower is one of the most ideal renewable sources as it can store energy efficiently, and can be made quickly available in cases of peak loads. Reservoir hydropower generation has considerable impact on the landscape. Reservoirs and dams are perhaps the most visible elements, but the effects of a regulated flow of rivers on the river ecosystem, and the ecology of the river banks, is considerable. In Sweden, hydropower has a long tradition of being an arena for environmental controversy. Historically, various river related economic interests collided, but nowadays river basin ecology and sports fisheries are important issues too. [cf. 1]. Swedish Government has high ambitions regarding climate change: it aims at becoming the first fossil free country within 40 years. Unlike the traditional image of Swedish society, there is no consensus on the hydropower issue but a fortified dissensus. Communication between the contestants is limited to regular clashes (accusations) in the media rather than sensible interaction between different stakeholders on basis of substance of the issues at stake. This paper describes a specific approach which brings together different stakeholders in an orchestrated and supported setting so that interaction between different stakeholders can take place on basis of the content and substance of various issues that are faced. The main aim of the workshop was to facilitate interaction through which the participants could gain a more substantive insight in each other’s positions and background arguments regarding different issues at hand. The interaction was supported by specific tools: External scenarios and value based scenarios were developed for analyzing the future of (hydro-) electricity production in Sweden. We evaluate specific learning effect of the participants as a measure of productivity of our approach. The attendance of the workshop was very good. Our post workshop evaluations show very encouraging results in terms of new insights in each other’s positions.","learning; scenario workshops; hydropower; climate change; biodiversity","en","journal article","IASKS","","","","","","","","Technology, Policy and Management","Values and Technology","","","",""
"uuid:f985cec4-cf94-4126-a885-b77c63132144","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:f985cec4-cf94-4126-a885-b77c63132144","Balancing Water Resources Development and Environmental Sustainability in Africa: A Review of Recent Research Findings and Applications","McClain, M.E.","","2012","Sustainable development in Africa is dependent on increasing use of the continent’s water resources without significantly degrading ecosystem services that are also fundamental to human wellbeing. This is particularly challenging in Africa because of high spatial and temporal variability in the availability of water resources and limited amounts of total water availability across expansive semiarid portions of the continent. The challenge is compounded by ambitious targets for increased water use and a rush of international funding to finance development activities. Balancing development with environmental sustainability requires (i) understanding the boundary conditions imposed by the continent’s climate and hydrology today and into the future, (ii) estimating the magnitude and spatial distribution of water use needed to meet development goals, and (iii) understanding the environmental water requirements of affected ecosystems, their current status and potential consequences of increased water use. This article reviews recent advancements in each of these topics and highlights innovative approaches and tools available to support sustainable development. While much remains to be learned, scientific understanding and technology should not be viewed as impediments to sustainable development on the continent.","sustainable development; biodiversity conservation; food security; hydro-power development; environmental flows; climate change","en","journal article","Springer-Verlag","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","","","","",""
"uuid:96ba9392-3188-40fb-be51-5ca9eefb4f9f","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:96ba9392-3188-40fb-be51-5ca9eefb4f9f","A flood vulnerability index for coastal cities and its use in assessing climate change impacts","Balica, S.F.; Wright, N.G.; Van der Meulen, F.","","2012","Worldwide, there is a need to enhance our understanding of vulnerability and to develop methodologies and tools to assess vulnerability. One of the most important goals of assessing coastal flood vulnerability, in particular, is to create a readily understandable link between the theoretical concepts of flood vulnerability and the day-to-day decision-making process and to encapsulate this link in an easily accessible tool. This article focuses on developing a C astal City Flood Vulnerability Index (CCFVI) based on exposure, susceptibility and resilience to coastal flooding. It is applied to nine cities around the world, each with different kinds of exposure. With the aid of this index, it is demonstrated which cities are most vulnerable to coastal flooding with regard to the system’s components, that is, hydro-geological, socio-economic and politico-administrative. The index gives a number from 0 to 1, indicating comparatively low or high coastal flood vulnerability, which shows which cities are most in need of further, more detailed investigation for decision-makers. Once its use to compare the vulnerability of a range of cities under current conditions has been demonstrated, it is used to study the impact of climate change on the vulnerability of these cities over a longer timescale. The results show that CCFVI provides a means of obtaining a broad overview of flood vulnerability and the effect of possible adaptation options. This, in turn, will allow for the direction of resources to more in-depth investigation of the most promising strategies.","Coastal City Flood Vulnerability Index (CCFVI); urbanised deltas; climate change","en","journal article","Springer-Verlag","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:c0989ed5-a5dd-4220-a714-d3f1512c4b5a","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:c0989ed5-a5dd-4220-a714-d3f1512c4b5a","Hydrological Changes of the Irtysh River and the Possible Causes","Huang, F.; Xia, Z.; Li, F.; Guo, L.; Yang, F.","","2012","Hydrological changes of the Irtysh River were analyzed concerning the changes of annual runoff and its distribution features within a year measured by coefficient of variation and concentration degree. Abrupt changes were detected by the heuristic segmentation method. Possible causes of the hydrological changes were investigated considering climate changes and human activities (especially the reservoir operation). The Mann-Kendall method was applied to estimate whether the temperature and precipitation was changed. The increased precipitation in winter may increase the runoff of April. The increased temperature and the decreased precipitation in the flood season may decrease the runoff. At the middle reaches, the impact of the reservoirs at the upper reaches is significant and may be the main factor leading to the abrupt decreases in annual runoff and its intra-annual variability and concentration. The increased water surface area of the reservoirs aggravates the evaporation and leads to annual runoff reduction. The reservoirs regulate runoff by storing water in the flood season and releasing water in the dry season. While at the lower reaches, the annual runoff remained steady and its intra-annual variation and concentration were reduced gradually because the impact of the reservoirs is relative small and the climatic impact may be more relevant.","hydrological change; climate change; reservoir operation; The Irtysh River","en","journal article","Springer","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:9ade3679-db18-4a8a-af9f-14dbb2af1a3b","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:9ade3679-db18-4a8a-af9f-14dbb2af1a3b","Modeling the adaptation of infrastructures to prevent the effects of climate change: An overview of existing literature","Chappin, E.J.L.; Van der Lei, T.","","2012","Climate change is likely to affect our infrastructures and, consequently, the way society interacts with these infrastructures. For instance, higher average temperatures increase the need for electricity delivered through the grid in the summer due to augmented air-conditioning. As the scientific consensus is that climate change effects may be severe, a next step is to divert the focus from the natural system to the effects on man-made systems. Particularly, we expect that the interconnectedness of man-made systems, especially energy, transport, ICT and water infrastructures is important with respect to cascading effects of climate change. In order to gain insight into the effects of climate change on our infrastructures and possible adaption strategies for the coming decades, we describe a literature search on the intersection of literature on infrastructures and climate change. Specifically, we search for ways to adapt our energy and transport infrastructures and make them resilient against the consequences of climate change and modeling approaches that simulate these adaption strategies for our infrastructure systems. We have found that, although there is a vast body of literature on climate change, less attention was paid to the effects of climate change on infrastructures. Our literature analysis shows that there is ample literature measuring the effects of climate change on individual technologies and parts of infrastructures. In contrast, the literature on the systems level, the adaptation of infrastructures and infrastructure interdependencies is just emerging. We anticipate that future research attention needs to be diverted from the analysis of a technical component (when will my bridge be broken) to the technical system level (how do I judge/measure when to replace a road section (including the bridge)?) or even to one of the socio-technical system level (how can I adapt the system as a whole as to prevent the effects of a tunnel breakdown?). We conjecture that suitable simulations and models should be developed to explore adaptation strategies at these levels of aggregation.","climate change; infrastructures; socio-technical systems; agent-based modeling","en","conference paper","","","","","","","","","Technology, Policy and Management","Infrastructures, Systems and Services","","","",""
"uuid:be8d8d8a-bc0e-4de5-8e78-b8dc6090776c","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:be8d8d8a-bc0e-4de5-8e78-b8dc6090776c","Towards regional projections of twenty-first century sea-level change based on IPCC SRES scenarios","Slangen, A.B.A.; Katsman, C.A.; Van de Wal, R.S.W.; Vermeersen, L.L.A.; Riva, R.E.M.","","2012","Sea-level change is often considered to be globally uniform in sea-level projections. However, local relative sea-level (RSL) change can deviate substantially from the global mean. Here, we present maps of twenty-first century local RSL change estimates based on an ensemble of coupled climate model simulations for three emission scenarios. In the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), the same model simulations were used for their projections of global mean sea-level rise. The contribution of the small glaciers and ice caps to local RSL change is calculated with a glacier model, based on a volume-area approach. The contributions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are obtained from IPCC AR4 estimates. The RSL distribution resulting from the land ice mass changes is then calculated by solving the sea-level equation for a rotating, elastic Earth model. Next, we add the pattern of steric RSL changes obtained from the coupled climate models and a model estimate for the effect of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment. The resulting ensemble mean RSL pattern reveals that many regions will experience RSL changes that differ substantially from the global mean. For the A1B ensemble, local RSL change values range from -3.91 to 0.79 m, with a global mean of 0.47 m. Although the RSL amplitude differs, the spatial patterns are similar for all three emission scenarios. The spread in the projections is dominated by the distribution of the steric contribution, at least for the processes included in this study. Extreme ice loss scenarios may alter this picture. For individual sites, we find a standard deviation for the combined contributions of approximately 10 cm, regardless of emission scenario","regional sea level; sea-level projections; climate change","en","journal article","Springer","","","","","","","","Aerospace Engineering","","","","",""
"uuid:3211ce00-5007-4883-b302-6da3288543b0","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:3211ce00-5007-4883-b302-6da3288543b0","City Blueprints: 24 Indicators to Assess the Sustainability of the Urban Water Cycle","Van Leeuwen, C.J.; Frijns, J.; Van Wezel, A.; Van de Ven, F.H.M.","","2012","Climate change, population growth and increased consumption, coupled with urbanization, are all placing increased pressure on water management. This global challenge can often best be addressed at the local level, e.g. in cities by optimizing the role of civil society. Although there are approaches for assessing the sustainability of countries and cities, there is no dedicated framework for the assessment of the sustainability of urban water management. We have therefore compiled a comprehensive list of indicators (the city blueprint) for this. The city blueprint is proposed as a first step towards gaining a better understanding and addressing the challenges of integrated urban water management (IUWM). City blueprints will enable the IUWM of cities to be compared, and stimulate the exchange of success stories (good practices) between cities to address the enormous IUWM challenges which lie ahead. The city blueprint provides a quick scan and baseline assessment. It comprises elements from a variety of methodologies, such as water footprint, urban metabolism and ecosystem services. The indicators have been subdivided into eight broad categories, i.e. (1) water security following the water footprint approach developed by Hoekstra and Chapagain (2007), (2) water quality, which includes surface water and groundwater, (3) drinking water, (4) sanitation, (5) infrastructure, (6) climate robustness, (7) biodiversity and attractiveness and (8) governance. Experience using city blueprints for the cities of Rotterdam, Maastricht and Venlo (in the Netherlands) have been included as practical examples. It was concluded that simplicity (ease of calculation and data availability), transparency and ease of communication makes the blueprint a valuable tool for policy makers, decision makers and resource managers as a first step in the process of understanding, envisioning, developing and implementing measures to transform the water management of cities. The best results are obtained when all the stakeholders are involved and connected right from the start.","sustainability; water management; climate change; urban metabolism; water footprint; city blueprint","en","journal article","Springer-Verlag","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Water Management","","","",""
"uuid:e519a730-dddb-49f3-b80c-252cfddb5b5b","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:e519a730-dddb-49f3-b80c-252cfddb5b5b","The resilience approach to climate adaptation applied for flood risk","Gersonius, B.","Zevenbergen, C. (promotor); Ashley, R.M. (promotor)","2012","This dissertation presents a potential way forward for adaptation to climate change, termed the resilience approach. This approach takes a dynamic perspective on adaptive processes and the effects of these processes at/across different spatio-temporal scales. Experience is provided with four methods that can be used to apply the resilience approach: Adaptive Policy Making, Real-In-Options, Adaptation Tipping Points and - Adaptation Mainstreaming Opportunities. This dissertation discusses the concept, procedure and benefits/limitations of each method, examining its usefulness for informing investment decisions for flood risk management. It also gives specific recommendations on which method to use under what circumstances.","Adaptation; climate change; flood risk management; tipping points; real options; resilience; uncertainty","en","doctoral thesis","CRC Press/Balkema","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:e619e958-ae95-4321-8a24-389ecae28325","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:e619e958-ae95-4321-8a24-389ecae28325","Impact of climate change on engineered slopes for infrastructure: Computer model","Van Esch, J.","STOWA","2012","This report assesses the consequences of droughts and periods of heavy precipitation for embankments. The proposed assessment procedure couples an agro-meteorological model based on the Penmann-Monteith expression to a groundwater flow model based on Dupuit's approximation. This approach is justified by the fact that the flow process through the unsaturated zone of an embankment is very complex due to highly varying meteorological conditions and soil heterogeneity and the available data can not support more advanced Richards calculations. Moreover, a comparison between both models for a peat dike application shows that the Dupuit model gives more robust results than a Richards model and is computationally more efficient. For this application extreme water table positions and related stability under wet and dry conditions are calculated and compared with measurements. Climate change will alter the boundary conditions and a tipping point analysis shows that the dike under consideration fails if the evapotranspiration increases by a factor two.","climate change; groundwater flow; dikes; draught","en","report","Deltares","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"uuid:72bbf670-2698-4b38-9824-594ba889dbab","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:72bbf670-2698-4b38-9824-594ba889dbab","“SimDelta”: Inquiry into an internet-based interactive model for water infrastructure development in The Netherlands","Rijcken, T.; Stijnen, J.; Slootjes, N.","","2012","The Dutch Delta Program is currently developing new government policies for flood protection and fresh water supply. Decision support instruments have to address the program’s technical and political complexity. The water system functions are highly interwoven and would benefit from an integrated approach on a national level, with decisions supported by a scientific Systems Analysis. Politically, there is a tendency towards broad participation and decentralization, and decision-making is typically supported by Conflict Resolution methods. To connect these two sides of the Delta Program’s task, an outline is presented of an internet community-based interactive instrument, preliminarily named SimDelta. On-line interactive maps and elements of serious gaming intuitively provide local Delta Program participants insight into the interaction between scenarios, problems, and solutions. SimDelta uses the internet to more frequently and efficiently present conceptual designs by architects and engineers to the Delta Program stakeholders, record their preferences, and “crowdsource” corrections, improvements and new ideas.","water infrastructure planning; flood risk management; adaptive water management; policy analysis; decision support; serious gaming; climate change; uncertainty; crowdsourcing","en","journal article","MDPI","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Water Management","","","",""
"uuid:0dbffe6a-9954-475d-8932-4b29d085f7e6","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:0dbffe6a-9954-475d-8932-4b29d085f7e6","Climate change impacts on the stability of small tidal inlets: A numerical modelling study using Realistic Analogue approach","Duong, T.; Ranasinghe, R.; Luijendijk, A.; Dastgheib, A.; Roelvink, D.","","2012","Tidal inlets are of great societal importance as they are often associated with ports and harbours, industry, tourism, recreation and prime waterfront real estate. Their behaviour is governed by the delicate balance of oceanic processes (tides, waves and mean sea level), and fluvial/estuarine processes (riverflow and heat fluxes), all of which can be significantly affected by climate change (CC) processes. This study investigates the potential range of CC impacts on the stability (closed/open state and locational stability) via the application of a sophisticated process based morphodynamic model (Delft3D) to strategically selected schematised inlet morphologies and forcing conditions.","climate change; tidal inlet; sea level rise; Delft3D","en","conference paper","PIANC","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:b605ffc6-5d20-4fea-b767-5ffdb0e8dee4","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:b605ffc6-5d20-4fea-b767-5ffdb0e8dee4","ACER: Developing Adaptive Capacity to Extreme events in the Rhine basin","Te Linde, A.H.; Moors, E.J.; Droogers, P.; Bisselink, B.; Becker, G.; Ter Maat, H.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.","TU Delft","2012","Water managers in the Rhine basin are increasingly confronted with information on the impact of climate change and climate variability on the discharge regime of their river system. The river Rhine has a long history of flooding events that caused casualties and severe damage. The question remains whether measures that are currently implemented upstream in Germany have either positive or negative effects on peak water levels downstream. Adaptation can significantly reduce impacts of climate change and is seen as an important part of societal response to global climate change. Planned adaptation implies decisions and measures within society that help to anticipate to climate related risks. The overall aim of ACER is to investigate the impact of climate change and to explore adaptation strategies for the Rhine basin under climate change, for both basin wide as well as regional water managers. The ACER project follows a so-called scenario analysis whereby solution trajectories are analyzed and compared, under the assumption of various long-term climate change and socio-economic scenarios. At the core of the ACER scenario approach are a group of stakeholders representing water managers at different levels in the Rhine basin. The results can be grouped in two themes: 1) Modeling processes - a trade-off. Instead of creating an overall new ""Rhine model"" for this project, we realized there is a trade-off between model complexity and the ability to run long time series and/or large ensembles of climate change scenarios. Considering model performance, focus and scale of the problem, a unique model set-up had to be optimized for each project objective. We coupled two complex models to simulate and investigate land surface - atmosphere feedback mechanisms. However, to simulate the combined effect of climate change and flood management measures, another model was developed that can be forced with output from a rainfall generator (10.000 year series of meteorological daily data). This model set-up aims to capture only the most relevant processes when assessing the effects on low-probability flood events, in a so-called ""process-based"" approach. 2) Effects of climate change and adaptation strategies. We project that climate change may increase flood probabilities with a factor 2.5 to 4.7 in 2050, which may strongly influence the expected annual losses due to flooding. The currently implemented and proposed measures in the Action Plan on Floods by the International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (IKSR), as well as several additional measures we evaluated may be inadequate to cope with the increased flood probabilities. At the regional scale of a Dutch Water Board, the effects of climate change on polder hydrology is more intense than expected, caused by the dependence on both local climate conditions and water levels of the Rhine and Meuse rivers, which are mutually reinforcing.","Rhine river; discharge; climate change","en","report","Instituut voor Milieuvraagstukken (IVM, VU Amsterdam)","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"uuid:ba4a9893-a3c6-4d5c-88c4-27ebd2e202db","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:ba4a9893-a3c6-4d5c-88c4-27ebd2e202db","Water System and Urban Form of Guangzhou in Times of Climate Change","Tai, Y.","","2011","","Guangzhou; Water System; Urban Form; Infrastructure; Climate Change; Subtropical Delta Region","en","conference paper","Queensland University of Technology, Centre for Subtropical Design","","","","","","","","Architecture and The Built Environment","Urbanism","","","",""
"uuid:59341c96-b5d2-49bf-bdd7-18988e0bed29","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:59341c96-b5d2-49bf-bdd7-18988e0bed29","Modelling Morphological Response of Large Tidal Inlet Systems to Sea Level Rise","Dissanayake, P.K.","Roelvink, J.A. (promotor)","2011","This dissertation qualitatively investigates the morphodynamic response of a large inlet system to IPCC projected relative sea level rise (RSLR). Adopted numerical approach (Delft3D) used a highly schematised model domain analogous to the Ameland inlet in the Dutch Wadden Sea. Predicted inlet evolution indicated the typical channel/shoal pattern of the Ameland inlet and an agreement with the empirical-equilibrium relations. RSLR enhances the existing flood-dominance of the system leading to erosion on the ebb-tidal delta and accretion in the basin. Tidal flat evolution was quite stable applying low RSLR whereas the system indicated turning into a lagoon under high RSLR. Nourishment application hardly enabled the RSLR induced sediment demand of tidal flat evolution.","sea level rise; tidal inlet; tidal flat; inlet morphodynamics; climate change; Ameland inlet; Wadden Sea","en","doctoral thesis","CRC Press/Balkema","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:2dafac0b-894c-48df-b5f5-82f49bfe71db","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:2dafac0b-894c-48df-b5f5-82f49bfe71db","Building regulations and control in the face of climate change: Overview of the Portuguese situation","Costa Branco De Oliveira Pedro, J.A.; dos Santos, C.P.","","2011","This paper presents an analysis of the main initiatives implemented in Portugal aimed at improving the environmental performance of buildings. The study is focused on the building regulatory system. However, to describe its framework a wider context is analysed for the following reasons: a) strategies and plans on environment and energy establish main goals and actions to minimize the production of greenhouse gases and to prepare for the challenges of climate change; b) building regulations and their control system set and enforce mandatory minimum requirements for the building stock; c) voluntary certification and labelling set requirements above regulatory minimums and prove their enforcement; d) incentive programs and tax benefits give financial support to change the characteristics of the building stock; e) training and technical information increase the capacity of professionals, and finally, f) sensitization campaigns raise public awareness among consumers and contribute to changes in their behaviour. The results are that there is a coordinated set of initiatives to improve environmental performance of buildings. These initiatives: change the characteristics of the existing building stock, improve the performance level set for new buildings, and encourage more responsible environmental behaviours. Energy is the resource on which more initiatives were focused. Some initiatives set mandatory command and control regulations but most of them are incentives for voluntary improvements. Despite the many initiatives to improve environmental performance of buildings, their actual implementation and effectiveness must be assessed.","building regulations; Portugal; climate change","en","conference paper","Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors","","","","","","","","OTB Research Institute for the Built Environment","OTB Research","","","",""
"uuid:0f377d6c-714d-4afd-afde-8f24d9969f00","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:0f377d6c-714d-4afd-afde-8f24d9969f00","A risk-informed approach to coastal zone management","Jongejan, R.B.; Ranasinghe, R.W.M.R.J.B.; Vrijling, J.K.","","2011","Economic and population growth have led to an unprecedented increase in the value at risk in coastal zones over the last century. To avoid excessive future losses, particularly in the light of projected climate change impacts, coastal zone managers have various instruments at their disposal. These primarily concern land-use planning (establishing buffer zones) and engineering solutions (beach nourishment and coastal protection). In this paper, we focus on risk mitigation through the implementation of buffer zones (setback lines). Foregoing land-use opportunities in coastal regions and protecting coasts is costly, but so is damage caused by inundation and storm erosion. Defining appropriate setback lines for land-use planning purposes is a balancing act. It is however unclear what level of protection is facilitated by current approaches for defining setback lines, and whether this is, at least from an economic perspective, sufficient. In this paper, we present an economic model to determine which setback lines would be optimal from an economic perspective. The results provide a useful reference point in the political debate about the acceptability of risk in coastal zones. The main conclusions are (i) that it is useful to define setback lines on the basis of their exceedance probabilities, (ii) that the exceedance probability of an economically efficient setback line will typically be in the order of magnitude of 1/100 per year, (iii) that it is important to distinguish between situations in which morphological conditions are stationary and non-stationary, and (iv) that long-term uncertainties (e.g. due to climate change) influence the exceedance probability of efficient setback lines but only to a limited extent.","setback line; climate change; sea level rise; coastal protection; coastal risk; coastal hazard","en","conference paper","","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:95d95fd3-f5d7-4d39-91c9-8802af36691d","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:95d95fd3-f5d7-4d39-91c9-8802af36691d","Climate change effects on living quality: Awareness of housing associations","Roders, M.J.; Straub, A.; Visscher, H.J.","","2011","A changing climate can have a large influence on the living quality of houses. A case study was carried out on the level of awareness of housing associations. This study forms the start of a research project on governance strategies for adaptation in residential buildings. A content analysis on climate change related topics was pursued on the policy plans and the most recent annual reports of the 25 largest Dutch housing associations. They were classified according to their level of awareness. Based on the results of the analysis it is concluded that the housing associations fall within the lowest category of awareness. In order to reach higher levels of awareness, governance strategies for adaptation have to be developed. The nature of possible strategies will depend on the level of awareness of the housing association. The definition of strategies will be studied in the future. This research provides basic information on climate change awareness that is valuable for governmental and non-governmental policymakers on the national, regional and local level, who are dealing with climate change issues.","awareness; climate change; adaptation; social housing; energy efficiency","en","conference paper","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"uuid:8fd7ca61-7169-4252-a23e-8fe66e82bef6","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:8fd7ca61-7169-4252-a23e-8fe66e82bef6","Climate change effects on living quality; awareness of housing associations","Roders, M.J.; Straub, A.; Visscher, H.J.","","2011","A changing climate can have a large influence on the living quality of houses. A case study was carried out on the level of awareness of housing associations. This study forms the start of a research project on governance strategies for adaptation in residential buildings. A content analysis on climate change related topics was pursued on the policy plans and the most recent annual reports of the 25 largest Dutch housing associations. They were classified according to their level of awareness. Based on the results of the analysis it is concluded that the housing associations fall within the lowest category of awareness. In order to reach higher levels of awareness, governance strategies for adaptation have to be developed. The nature of possible strategies will depend on the level of awareness of the housing association. The definition of strategies will be studied in the future. This research provides basic information on ‘climate change awareness’ that is valuable for governmental and non-governmental policymakers on the national, regional and local level, who are dealing with climate change issues","awareness, climate change, adaptation, social housing, energy efficiency","en","conference paper","Delft University of Technology","","","","","","","","OTB Research Institute for the Built Environment","","","","",""
"uuid:cb9b1243-81a2-4be1-b52d-98b1f2ac0035","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:cb9b1243-81a2-4be1-b52d-98b1f2ac0035","The Problem of Many Hands: Climate Change as an Example","Van de Poel, I.; Fahlquist, J.N.; Doorn, N.; Zwart, S.; Royakkers, L.","","2011","In some situations in which undesirable collective effects occur, it is very hard, if not impossible, to hold any individual reasonably responsible. Such a situation may be referred to as the problem of many hands. In this paper we investigate how the problem of many hands can best be understood and why, and when, it exactly constitutes a problem. After analyzing climate change as an example, we propose to define the problem of many hands as the occurrence of a gap in the distribution of responsibility that may be considered morally problematic. Whether a gap is morally problematic, we suggest, depends on the reasons why responsibility is distributed. This, in turn, depends, at least in part, on the sense of responsibility employed, a main distinction being that between backward-looking and forward-looking responsibility.","responsibility; technology engineering; problem of many hands; collective responsibility; climate change","en","journal article","Springer","","","","","","","","Technology, Policy and Management","Values and Technology","","","",""
"uuid:962a0834-9f90-437a-98b1-693ac8fc6fbf","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:962a0834-9f90-437a-98b1-693ac8fc6fbf","Climate change and water resources management - 4th Yangtze Forum","Anonymus, A.","TU Delft","2011","1 The Swiss Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change (Probst Thomas, Hohmann Roland, Koellner-Heck Pamela) 2 Adaptation to Water-Related Disasters Caused by Extreme Weather Conditions (Takara Kaoru) 3 The Application of Macro Scale Distributed Hydrological Model in Runoff Simulation of JiaLingJiang River Basin (Junliang Jin, Guoqing Wang, Cuishan Liu, Ruimin He) 4 Building with Nature: Sustainable Development in Times of Climate Change (Huib de Vriend) 5 The Swiss Water Management Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change (Hugo Aschwanden, Schaedler Bruno) 6 Climate Change Adaptation-a New Area for River Basin Management (Lifeng Li) 7 Water Resources Outlook and Management for Climate Change in KOREA (Jin Hyeog PARK, Deuk Koo KOH, Gwang Man LEE, Hyo Sok CHAE) 8 Climate Change Impact on Water Resources in Changjiang River (Yan Huang, WenFa Yang, Li Chen) 9 Capacity Planning in a Nonstationary Climate (Neela P. Babu and Daniel P. Loucks) 10 New approaching addressing challenges in the coupling of atmosphere-land surface-hydrology processes: overview and opportunities (Zhongbo Yu, Yang Huang, Chuanguo Yang, Qin JU, Haishen Lu, Tao Yang, Zhenchun Hao, Yipilig Li, Xing Chen, Long Xiang) 11 Issues of Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability lnduced by Multi-Drives: A Case of Shanghai City (Guoyu Ren) 12 Monitoring and Early Warning of Glacier Lake Outburst Floods in the Varkant River Area under Conditions of Climate Change (Hess Josef, Keusen Hans Rudolf and Haemmig Christoph) 13 The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment: Analysis of the Water Sector (Hurford, A., Wade, S.O., Rance, J., Ramsbottom, D.) 14 Water Quality and Climate Change in Australia (Michael R Moore) 15 The Conception and Practice of the Water Resources Model of the Yangtze River Basin (Yan Huang, Ying Xiong, Hanggang Zhang, Mingxin Li) 16 Evaluation of the simulation performance of lPCC AR4 global elimate models on Huaihe River Basin (Zhenchun Hao, Qin Ju, Lu Wang, Weijuan Jiang) 17 The Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources of Hanjiang River Basin (Honggang Zhang, Shenglian Guo, Haijin Guo, Hua Chen) 18 Research on the Evaluation of Hydropower Clean Energy under the Low Carbon Economy (Dengzhong Zhao, Yongbo Chen, Xianjia Wang, Jingjiang Ran) 19 Enhancing Capacity construction of Water Quality Monitoring and Service to support the Strictest Water Resources Management (Yinping Dai) 20 The Function and Consideration of Hydrology in Carrying out the Strictest Water Resources Management (Lanjun LU) 21 A Study on lntegrated Regulation and the Maintenance of Environmental Flow of Downstream of Dam of Danjiangkou Reservoir (Guangyan Feng, Bin Xu) 21 Analysis on the Impact of Climate change on inflow to the Three Gorges Reservoir (Miaolin Wang, Baoxian Hou, Liang Zhang) 23 Analysis on the features of Pollution Souree of Danjiangkou Reservoir and corresponding protection measures (Feng Wang, Wenyao Zhao, Shuyong Li) 24 Variation trends of hydro-meteorological elements in Kuyehe River catchment during 19552008 (Tang Fangfang, Wang Guoqing, Guo Chunqing, Niu Haijing) ============================================================== Speech at the Opening Ceremony of the 4th Yangtze Forum (Huang Lixin) Speech at the Opening Ceremony of the 4thYangtze Forum (Hu Siyi) Speech at the Opening Ceremony of the 4th Yangtze Forum (Deng Bentai) Speech at the Opening Ceremony of the 4th Yangtze Forum (Yin Hong) Speech at the Opening Ceremony of the 4thYangtze Forum (Markus Ederer) Speech at the Opening Ceremony of the 4th Yangtze Forum (Goetz Andreast) Science-based Supporttor Sustainable U se of Water Resources of Chin ( Hu Siyi) Accelerate Yangtze River Harnessing, Development and Protection for Coordinated Development of RegionalSocioeconomy (Cai Qihua) Lay Equal Stress on Exploitation, Management and Conservation to Promo te Balanced Development in the Areaalong the Yangtze River (Huang Lixin) Same Lessans from Multi Purpose Water Resources Management in the United States (Jeffrey J. Dorko) Recognition and Consideration for the Issues of Climate Change- Zhang Jianyun Spanish Experience in River Ba sin Planning- Integrated River Basin Management (Josep Puxeu Rocamora) Enhance Systematic Monitoring and Integrated Research of Estuary for Sustainable Development of Yangtze River Delta and Basin-wide (Shen Jun) Lay a Solid Foundation for Water Conservancy Accelerate the Development of Wanjiang Region (Zhao Shucong) Lead Ecological Construction through a Limpid Lake Realize New Rise unde Blue Sky and Clean Water (Hu Youtao) Improving the Environmental Flows for Harmony between Yangtze and Regional Development (Jim Gradoville) On Measures for Flood Control in the Middle Reaches of the Changjiang River (Guo Shenglian) Speed up Harnessing ofXiangjiang River and Dongting Lake and Promo te Green Rise of Hunan Province (Xu Minghua) Construction of Ecological Reservoir Area Realization of Sustainable Development (Ma Zhengqi ) Care for Our Mother River (Zhang Xingsheng) Grasp Opportunity to Construct Water Conservancy Projects on Large Scale Accelerate to Build Prosperous Water Resources Province (Zhong Mian) Promote Sustainable Economic and Social Development in Central Yunnan by Tapping Water Resources More Effectively Kong Chuizhu) Accelerate Water Conservancy Construction for a Prospective Tibet (Gersang Ciren ) Protection of the Three-river Sources as a Key Ecological Shelter of China (Deng Bentai)","water resources management; Yangtse river; river basin management; climate change","en","report","Changjiang water resources commission","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"uuid:744ffb92-7edf-4d36-840d-414d6d24c423","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:744ffb92-7edf-4d36-840d-414d6d24c423","Building regulations and control in the face of climate range","Visscher, H.J.; Meijer, F.M.; Itard, L.C.M.","","2010","Since a few years the attention for building regulatory systems and enforcement procedures is growing. Various developments in society, politics and the construction industry have influenced changes in the systems of building control in the last 20 years. The influence of climate change and the related demands on buildings will have a very strong impact of further transformations in this field. This was a reason to initiate a new CIB taskgroup (TG79) focussing on building regulations and control in de the face of climate change. In this paper we present some research findings about the relation between regulations and actual performances of buildings. These experiences make clear that the function of building control might change in the next years.","building regulations; building control; energy performance; energy saving; climate change","en","conference paper","RICS Londen","","","","","","","","OTB Research Institute","Housing Quality and Process Innovation","","","",""
"uuid:e6ac7327-91ac-44d1-b545-baa67edc2150","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:e6ac7327-91ac-44d1-b545-baa67edc2150","Energy regulations require strickter enforcement as response to climate change","Visscher, H.J.; Itard, L.C.M.; Guerra Santin, O.","","2010","Since a few years the attention for building regulatory systems and enforcement procedures is growing. Various developments in society, politics and the construction industry have influenced changes in the systems of building control in the last 20 years. The influence of climate change and the related demands on buildings will have a very strong impact of further transformations in this field. This was a reason to initiate a new CIB taskgroup (TG79) focussing on building regulations and control in de the face of climate change. In this paper we present some research findings about the relation between regulations and actual performances of buildings. These experiences make clear that the function of building control might change in the next years.","building regulations; building control; energy performance; energy saving; climate change","en","conference paper","Hong Kong Polytecnic University","","","","","","","","OTB Research Institute for the Built Environment","OTB Onderzoek","","","",""
"uuid:080e976f-4033-45dc-8fac-3477bc889a64","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:080e976f-4033-45dc-8fac-3477bc889a64","Comparative assessment of the vulnerability and resilience of 10 delta cities","Bucx, T.; Marchand, M.; Makaske, B.; Van de Guchte, C.","Deltares","2010","In this collaborative project of the Delta Alliance a framework for delta assessment is proposed, building on the work done for the Aquaterra 2009 conference in Amsterdam and elaborating recent recommendations of the World Estuary Alliance conference (hosted by WWF in Shanghai, June 2010) regarding the development of a worldwide assessment of estuaries by means of scorecards. This framework links the DPSIR approach with a Layer model for a delta, which should be seen as a first step towards a more elaborated framework, to be developed in due time with relevant stakeholders. The integrated approach takes into account the different layers of the delta system and related governance issues. Three physical planning layers are recognized: the Occupation layer (land and water use), the Network layer (infrastructure), and the Base layer (natural resources), each with different but interrelated temporal dynamics and public-private involvement. The framework is used for describing deltas in a uniform format in order to make a comparative overview and analysis easier. Building on the contacts of the Delta Alliance (and World Estuary Alliance) each delta description is prepared by a Delta Wing Coordinator of the Delta Alliance (or another main contact person), in most cases in cooperation with several (sectoral) experts.","delta; climate change; vulnerability; delta cities","en","report","Deltares","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"uuid:9d607386-1b79-451c-b034-486cc48d8f81","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:9d607386-1b79-451c-b034-486cc48d8f81","Towards a more resilient built environment","Meijer, S.A.; Crul, M.R.M.; Van Timmeren, A.","","2010","Over time, humankinds lifestyle became increasingly dependent on finite resources. It follows that such a system is unable to sustain itself indefinitely. Several studies show that in the near future the climate may radically change and oil production will peak. Changes in the natural environment will possibly be so overwhelming that man has to radically change its response to environmental changes and thus its lifestyle. To cope with consequences of climate change the current efforts toward sustainability are likely not to suffice. An approach towards resilience is another way to deal with risks associated with climate change. Resilience is the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change, so as to retain essentially the same function, structure, identity and feedbacks. A resilience approach offers a strategy to reduce dependence on finite sources. Thus, basing society on the resilience principle, by result society adheres to commonly accepted definitions of a sustainable society. The built environment can be regarded as the physical representation of society. Likewise the built environment influences society. Since society is not resilient enough, neither can be the built environment. It follows that when society becomes more resilient, this will affect the built environment in a positive way and vice versa. This paper outlines the theoretical framework for a resilience approach to the built environment, resulting in a more sustainable built environment than at present. This is done by discussing relevant literature and synthesizing concepts from the fields of ecology, sociology, sustainability and urban design.","resilience; built environment; climate change consequences; adaptive capacity","en","conference paper","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"uuid:5f676b72-1562-4c67-b3e4-23645ab47811","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:5f676b72-1562-4c67-b3e4-23645ab47811","Living climate change: Design thinking and learning in complexity","Bakker, C.; Peck, D.; Soboll, P.; Tempelman, E.","","2010","As the world moves into an era of significant changes predicated by the challenge of sustainability, the future holds many questions, with serious consequences depending on the answers. Given the implications of these changes, the worlds design community needs to be constantly challenged to respond. To support conversations on what life will be like in 20 or 30 years and thus make the climate change debate more tangible, IDEO, a global design and innovation company, is hosting the Living Climate Change project and website. Moving the debate away from what we have to give up toward what we can create, the project is born from the conviction that design has a role to play in addressing the global issue of climate change. The scenarios IDEO developed (in movie clips) show how we may choose (or be forced) to abandon the old ways and change our behaviour. In partnership with IDEO, the Faculty of Industrial Design Engineering of the Delft University of Technology applied the Living Climate Change method in their education on sustainable design. Over a ten-week period, nine student teams were asked to develop non-linear future scenarios and present these in short movie clips. This paper presents the results of this activity, reflects on the methods used (expert involvement, storytelling, scenario building, movie making) and the learning that took place. The main conclusion is that the Living Climate Change activity turned out to be a valuable tool for the students, helping them come to terms with complex and interlinked topics and how these might change the world and the way we live..","design education; design thinking; sustainable design; climate change; constructivistic learning","en","conference paper","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"uuid:5394f2ff-a45f-48ad-a7b4-94916085ff8c","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:5394f2ff-a45f-48ad-a7b4-94916085ff8c","Living climate change: Design thinking and learning in complexity","Bakker, C.A.; Peck, D.P.; Soboll, P.; Tempelman, E.","","2010","As the world moves into an era of significant changes predicated by the challenge of sustainability, the future holds many questions, with serious consequences depending on the answers. Given the implications of these changes, the world’s design community needs to be constantly challenged to respond. To support conversations on what life will be like in 20 or 30 years and thus make the climate change debate more tangible, IDEO, a global design and innovation company, is hosting the Living Climate Change project and website. Moving the debate away from what we have to give up toward what we can create, the project is born from the conviction that design has a role to play in addressing the global issue of climate change. The scenarios IDEO developed (in movie clips) show how we may choose (or be forced) to abandon the old ways and change our behaviour. In partnership with IDEO, the Faculty of Industrial Design Engineering of the Delft University of Technology applied the Living Climate Change method in their education on sustainable design. Over a ten-week period, nine student teams were asked to develop non-linear future scenarios and present these in short movie clips. This paper presents the results of this activity, reflects on the methods used (expert involvement, storytelling, scenario building, movie making) and the learning that took place. The main conclusion is that the Living Climate Change activity turned out to be a valuable tool for the students, helping them come to terms with complex and interlinked topics and how these might change the world and the way we live.","design education; design thinking; sustainable design; climate change; constructivistic learning","en","conference paper","","","","","","","","","Industrial Design Engineering","","","","",""
"uuid:0171af65-3bbf-45ba-8b93-a6bc65e2b5ff","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:0171af65-3bbf-45ba-8b93-a6bc65e2b5ff","Towards a more resilient built environment","Meijer, S.A.; Crul, M.R.M.; Van Timmeren, A.","","2010","Over time, humankind’s lifestyle became increasingly dependent on finite resources. It follows that such a system is unable to sustain itself indefinitely. Several studies show that in the near future the climate may radically change and oil production will peak. Changes in the natural environment will possibly be so overwhelming that man has to radically change its response to environmental changes and thus its lifestyle. To cope with consequences of climate change the current efforts toward sustainability are likely not to suffice. An approach towards resilience is another way to deal with risks associated with climate change. Resilience is the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change, so as to retain essentially the same function, structure, identity and feedbacks. A resilience approach offers a strategy to reduce dependence on finite sources. Thus, basing society on the resilience principle, by result society adheres to commonly accepted definitions of a sustainable society. The built environment can be regarded as the physical representation of society. Likewise the built environment influences society. Since society is not resilient enough, neither can be the built environment. It follows that when society becomes more resilient, this will affect the built environment in a positive way and vice versa. This paper outlines the theoretical framework for a resilience approach to the built environment, resulting in a more sustainable built environment than at present. This is done by discussing relevant literature and synthesizing concepts from the fields of ecology, sociology, sustainability and urban design.","resilience; built environment; climate change consequences; adaptive capacity","en","conference paper","","","","","","","","","Industrial Design Engineering","","","","",""
"uuid:d8e635d2-2ba1-47f1-8ad0-59d44c45024d","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d8e635d2-2ba1-47f1-8ad0-59d44c45024d","Climate change and inland shipping","van der Toorn, A. (a.vandertoorn@tudelft.nl) (TU Delft, Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Hydraulic Engineering); de Jong, M. (m.dejong@tudelft.nl)) (TU Delft, Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Hydraulic Engineering)","","2010","Although much attention is given to the consequences of climate change with respect to melting icecaps, starving polar bears, sea level rise and inadequate storm defense systems, there may be severe consequences for inland shipping too. Not only because of more frequent occurrence and longer durations of closed storm surge barriers, which may disconnect the free entrance for inland vessels to seaports, but also because the hinterland connections itself may change in the sense that so called melting rivers with a rather stable and predictable discharge over the year, may change in fast fluctuating and more unpredictable so called rain rivers. This may sometimes lead to higher water levels, which may give problems for the passage of bridges by (to) high inland (container) vessels, but what is more undesired are (long) periods of low discharge, which may allow only shipping with restricted shallow draught, which in turn may cause disruption of lean and mean logistic chains. There are many different type of solutions to anticipate to this future threats, such as better river management (think about retention basins in times of high discharge or in times of low discharge think about inflow from reservoirs, flow reduction by weirs and adjustable groins, extra draught by dedicated dredging), other more shallow ship properties, extra and/or shifted fleet capacity, other transport modalities, more accurate, actual and long term predicted river depth information, logistic buffers, extra stock, etc. An extra complication comes from the fact that some of these measures should be taken in the public domain by (inter)national government(s), local authorities, river managers, etc., while others are more or less the responsibility of private transport companies, producers or even individual ship owners. And most of them are believers of the law of up scaling more than downsizing! In this paper some results of the working group Inland navigation from the project Knowledge for Climate are presented and a few specific measures such as infrastructural adaptations are further investigated and scored against different criteria.","climate change; inland navigation; Rhine river; adaptive measures","en","conference paper","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"uuid:ad906f16-7304-4126-bb5b-c6a9cd1b0851","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:ad906f16-7304-4126-bb5b-c6a9cd1b0851","The future of hydrology: An evolving science for a changing world","Wagener, T.; Sivapalan, M.; Troch, P.A.; McGlynn, B.L.; Harman, C.J.; Gupta, H.V.; Kumar, P.; Rao, P.S.C.; Basu, N.B.; Wilson, J.S.","","2010","Human activities exert global-scale impacts on our environment with significant implications for freshwater-driven services and hazards for humans and nature. Our approach to the science of hydrology needs to significantly change so that we can understand and predict these implications. Such an adjustment is a necessary prerequisite for the development of sustainable water resource management strategies and to achieve long-term water security for people and the environment. Hydrology requires a paradigm shift in which predictions of system behavior that are beyond the range of previously observed variability or that result from significant alterations of physical (structural) system characteristics become the new norm. To achieve this shift, hydrologists must become both synthesists, observing and analyzing the system as a holistic entity, and analysts, understanding the functioning of individual system components, while operating firmly within a well-designed hypothesis testing framework. Cross-disciplinary integration must become a primary characteristic of hydrologic research, catalyzing new research and nurturing new educational models. The test of our quantitative understanding across atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, biosphere, and anthroposphere will necessarily lie in new approaches to benchmark our ability to predict the regional hydrologic and connected implications of environmental change. To address these challenges and to serve as a catalyst to bring about the necessary changes to hydrologic science, we call for a long-term initiative to address the regional implications of environmental change.","hydrology; climate change; synthesis","en","journal article","American Geophysical Union","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Water Management","","","",""
"uuid:b9748536-2aa3-43c1-9267-cbd6181834d8","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:b9748536-2aa3-43c1-9267-cbd6181834d8","Restructuring cities for sustainability: A metabolism approach","Schremmer, C.; Stead, D.","","2009","The FP7-funded SUME project (Sustainable Urban Metabolism for Europe) is focusing on the way how future urban systems can be designed to be consistently less damaging to the environment and particularly to climate change than in the present. Urban development scenarios linked with an agent-based urban metabolism model will try to demonstrate the potential to build and rebuild existing (European) cities in ways which will extract much less of specific energy and material resources from the environmental system, thereby reducing green house gas emissions and improving the climate change performance of urban systems. The built environment – in a systems logic the stocks of the urban system – is using a substantial portion of resource flows to be built and maintained. On the other hand, the spatial qualities of the built urban systems, the so-called “urban form”, have an impact on quantities and qualities of resources needed to maintain urban life. That impact will be estimated and conclusions for future urban development strategies be drawn.","Impact of urban form on urban metabolism on resource and energy use; impact of urban form on climate change; sustainable urban development; urban development scenarios","en","conference paper","World Bank","","","","","","","","OTB Research Institute","Urban and Regional Development","","","",""
"uuid:af45d7b1-785f-41a4-a25c-47553b09aa1e","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:af45d7b1-785f-41a4-a25c-47553b09aa1e","The bike is back with a battery","Van der Hoeven, F.D.","","2009","The attention the electric car receives as a promising means of sustainable transportation seems at times to overshadow the rise of that other electric vehicle: the pedelec or electric bicycle. For those who don't know yet: a pedelec is a bicycle assisted by an electric motor. That motor is powered by a rechargeable (lithium-ion) battery. The motor is intended to assist pedaling, not to replace it. It is the newest evolution of the bike. Its numbers are growing fast. This paper assumes that the growing use of pedelecs requires a different approach from design research and policy making towards electric two wheelers. It will outline the major differences between regular bike use and pedelec use and addresses issues like city to city cycling, bicycle theft, parking and street charging.","climate change; sustainable mobility; pedelec; e-bike","en","conference paper","JAOCC","","","","","","","","Architecture","Urbanism","","","",""
"uuid:b0e41aea-7004-4677-b050-14f066d95450","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:b0e41aea-7004-4677-b050-14f066d95450","Heat in the city - an inventory of knowledge and knowledge deficiencies regarding heat stress in Dutch cities and options for its mitigation.","Salcedo Rahola, T.B.; Van Oppen, P.; Mulder, K.","","2009","This report gives an overview of heat stress problems in urban areas of the Netherlands and various options for mitigating this stress. Climate change is causing more occurrences of heat waves. Urban areas in particular will suffer the most, as they are warmer than the countryside. * What is known about the magnitude of heat stress in Dutch urban areas? * What are the consequences? * What research is needed to clarify its effects? * Which options in particular could do with further study in order to prevent fatalities, maintain comfort levels and avoid increases in energy consumption for summer cooling? This report aims at identifying: * the foreseeable problems of urban heat in the Netherlands; * the specifics (geographic, cultural, economic, technological) that apply to the Netherlands; * the most promising options for mitigating urban heat; and * the priorities for further research.","Urban Heat Island; Heat Stress; Adaptation; Climate Change","en","report","Klimaat voor Ruimte","","","","","","","","Technology, Policy and Management","","","","",""
"uuid:d383f20c-2d44-4548-b467-fd47b72afca6","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d383f20c-2d44-4548-b467-fd47b72afca6","Long-term strategies for flood risk management: Scenario definition and strategic alternative design","de Bruijn, K.; Klijn, F.;McGahey, C.; Mens, M.; Wolfer, H.","TU Braunschweig","2008","Flood risk management requires policy making for a relatively far and largely unknown future. Task 14 of Theme 2 in FLOODsite aims to provide methodological guidance on how to perform the design/development of long term strategic alternatives for flood risk management and how to assess their performance in different future scenarios. To begin with, this report reviews some mainstream existing methods of scenario development and use, as well as experiences with the design and assessment of strategic alternatives for flood risk management. Next, a procedure and methods are proposed and discussed. Thirdly, the procedure and methods are tried on the Schelde Estuary and the Thames Estuary and, finally, conclusions are drawn.","flood risk analysis; Climate; Climate change; Flood risk; Flood risk management; Integrated Assessment; Long term planning","en","report","Deltares","","","","","","","","","","","","Floodsite",""
"uuid:1fd03a0c-36de-42d9-ad79-2d1b5d53934c","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:1fd03a0c-36de-42d9-ad79-2d1b5d53934c","Estimation of the Maximum Physically Possible Precipitation in Saxony Using a Mesoscale Atmospheric Model","Kuze, T.. Helmuth, O.; Görner, C.; Bernhover, C.","TU Braunschweig","2008","A series of sensitivity studies have been performed to estimate the impact of presumed global warming on synoptic scale weather events. Within the framework of an epignostic study, mesoscale simulations of the Elbe river flood (August, 2002) employing the COSMO-DE model of the DWD have been carried out. The first set of runs was realised on a model domain size of 201 x 201 grid points with different temperature offsets at constant relative humidity. The results gave no hints on enhanced area accumulated rain sums in a warmed climate. Different temperature offsets at constant relative humidity does not result in significantly changed rain sums with respect to the reference run (climate as is). Increasing the water vapour mixing ratio so far, that the relative humidity increases, the total rain amounts increase, too. The observed rain sums originate from both thermodynamic and hydrodynamic effects (superposition of stratiform, convective and orographic rain contributions). An enhancement of the absolute water vapour mixing ratio at higher temperatures is indeed a necessary, but not a sufficient condition to enhance the rain formation. For example, a displacement of rain-promoting synoptic features might counteract rain formation, when the superposition of processes from different scale is not ensured any longer in a changed atmospheric system.","Climate; Climate change; Modelling; Physical modelling; Rainfall","en","report","TU Dresden","","","","","","","","","","","","Floodsite",""
"uuid:af79991f-31e7-47a4-a6ef-bfd54ca59c57","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:af79991f-31e7-47a4-a6ef-bfd54ca59c57","Working together with water: A living land builds for its future","Deltacommissie ","Veerman, C.P. (contributor); Stive, M.J. (contributor)","2008","The government asked the Delta Committee to come up with recommendations on how to protect the Dutch coast and the low-lying hinterland against the consequences of climate change. The issue is how the Netherlands can be made climate proof over the very long term: safe against flooding, while still remaining an attractive place to live, to reside and work, for recreation and investment. The task at hand, then, involved looking further than just flood protection. The Committee’s vision therefore embraces interactions with life and work, agriculture, nature, recreation, landscape, infrastructure and energy. The strategy for future centuries rests on two pillars: flood protection and sustainability. The report also emphasises the opportunities for Dutch society/the Netherlands as a whole. Water safety is at the centre of this report, and includes both flood protection and securing fresh water supplies. Achieving water safety prevents casualties and social disruption, while avoiding damage to our economy, landscape, nature, culture and reputation. In their report, the Delta Committee assumes that a safe Netherlands is a collective social good for which the government is and will remain responsible. The level of flood protection must be raised by at least a factor of 10 with respect to the present level. English translation of ""Samen Werken met water. Een land dat leeft, bouwt aan zijn toekomst"" http://repository.tudelft.nl/view/ir/uuid%3A6bb16d66-94c6-44eb-bb6b-e389283c1e82","Netherlands; flooding; flood risk; climate change","en","report","Deltacommissie","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:fb686b97-26b7-4951-8cc1-b9553e09e496","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:fb686b97-26b7-4951-8cc1-b9553e09e496","Effecten van klimaatverandering op de Waterkwaliteit in de Rijn en Maas","Van Vliet, M.; Zwolsman, G.; Joziasse, J.","","2008","De waterkwaliteit van rivieren is het meest kritisch tijdens hydrologische extremen en onder hoge watertemperaturen. Uit verkennende studies naar effecten van klimaatverandering op de waterkwaliteit in de Rijn (Zwolsman & Van Bokhoven, 2007) en Maas (Van Vliet & Zwolsman, 2007) is gebleken dat er in het algemeen een verslechtering van de chemische waterkwaliteit wordt waargenomen tijdens perioden van extreem lage en hoge rivierafvoeren en tijdens hittegolven (Zwolsman & Van Vliet, 2007). Met het oog op de toekomst kan uit de resultaten van bovengenoemde studies geconcludeerd worden dat een mogelijke toename in frequentie en intensiteit van droogten, hoogwaters en hittegolven ten gevolge van klimaatverandering kan leiden tot het frequenter optreden van een waterkwaliteitsverslechtering in de Rijn en de Maas. Hierdoor kunnen risico’s ontstaan voor de realisatie van de ecologische doelstellingen en gebruiksfuncties van het water (bijv. drinkwaterproductie en recreatie). Een samenvatting van de resultaten van voorgaande studies naar de effecten van hittegolven, droogten en hoogwaters op de waterkwaliteit in de Rijn en de Maas van Zwolsman, Van Vliet en Van Bokhoven is weergegeven in figuur 1. Het doel van deze studie is het vaststellen van grenswaarden in afvoer en watertemperatuur waarbij kritieke waterkwaliteitscondities (normoverschrijding) optreden. Hoewel tijdens hoogwatersituaties ook verslechtering in waterkwaliteit is waargenomen voor stoffen die zich sterk aan zwevend stof hechten (Van Bokhoven, 2007; Van Vliet & Zwolsman, 2007), ligt de nadruk in deze studie op het bepalen van grenswaarden voor waterkwaliteit van opgeloste stoffen tijdens droogtecondities (lage afvoeren).","waterquality; watertemperature; climate change; Rhine; Meuse; river; drinkingwater; CT04.20; Waterkwaliteit en calamiteiten; CT04.22.11; Extreme afvoeren en waterkwaliteit; Delft Cluster","nl","report","Delft Cluster","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"uuid:cc200a16-f3a2-4cac-8236-95aa7fbeac0e","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:cc200a16-f3a2-4cac-8236-95aa7fbeac0e","Integrated Urban Wastewater System Data Network - Data network system: Diagnostic Report Cali, Colombia","Unesco-IHE ","","2008","The pressure on the Urban Wastewater Systems (UWwS) increases as urbanization continues relentlessly and climate change appears to lead to more extreme rainfall events. These pressures have a negative effect on the efficiency of UWwS to reduce the urban pollution reaching water-receiving systems. One of the main causes of the problem is that the UWwSs have been traditionally designed for static/stationary loading but are operating under dynamic loading. Hence, only in the rare case of the design loading the system operates optimally. Thus, there is a lack of control in all other operational situations. The built-in capacity of the system is not used, or it is used in a way that the objectives cannot be met. In the first situation, invested capital is not productive; in the second situation, damage occurs: receiving waters are polluted or the city is flooded. Thus, the urban pollution managers are being forced to optimize the control of UWwS in order to deal with extreme variations in terms of flow and water quality and new criteria for pollution control performance. The same situation appears in the city of Cali, Colombia. EMCALI suspends the intake of raw water, due to the contamination of the water supply sources by wastewater discharges upstream form intake water, especially from South Channel and other discharges. Consequently, the drinking water plants present higher operation and treatment requirements and as a consequence an increment in the treatment costs. One of the main causes of the deficient control of the UWwS is the lack of data in each subsystem and the lack of coordination within institutions to share the information and take decisions based on it. This document presents a diagnostic report for urban wastewater monitoring systems of Cali. It includes an inventory of their components: Drainage Network, Cañaveralejo wastewater treatment plant and water receiving system (Cauca River) and identify the current status of the monitoring system. The main findings are that in the Cauca river there is a network of stations for water levels and water quality parameters but the information is not share successfully within the institutions IDEAM, CVC, DAGMA, EMCALI and hardly is used for system control purposes. The information from the sewer system is scarce and mainly at the entrance of the WwTP or in the pumping stations. The majority of information is collected in the Canaveralejo WwTP.","urban wastewater systems; water-receiving systems; climate change; Delft Cluster; CT06.24.11","en","report","Delft Cluser","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"uuid:df3c66b6-2523-45dc-a5ad-489217fbfa1b","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:df3c66b6-2523-45dc-a5ad-489217fbfa1b","Effect klimaatveranderingen op toetspeilen en kruinhoogtes voor benedenrivierengebied: Oefening Hydra-instrumentarium","Verhoeven, G.; Markus, A.A.; Klis, H. van der","","2008","","klimaatverandering; climatic change; maatgevend hoogwater; design water level; kruinhoogte; crest level; benedenrivieren; lowland rivers","nl","report","Deltares (WL)","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"uuid:338b8b53-d084-4159-a4ae-a696e81041f3","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:338b8b53-d084-4159-a4ae-a696e81041f3","Effect klimaatveranderingen op toetspeilen en kruinhoogtes voor benedenrivierengebied: Oefening Hydra-instrumentarium","Verhoeven, G.; Klis, H. van der; Markus, A.A.","","2007","","benedenrivieren; lowland rivers; kruinhoogte; crest level; klimaatverandering; climatic change; maatgevend hoogwater; design water level","nl","report","Deltares (WL)","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"uuid:69de94f9-385c-4c50-beff-8cc7b955beba","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:69de94f9-385c-4c50-beff-8cc7b955beba","Aanpak wateroverlast in polders op basis van risicobeheer","Hoes, O.A.C.","Brouwer, R. (promotor)","2007","The subject of this dissertation is flooding in lowland areas caused by intense precipitation. The probability of flooding will increase when we do not adapt our water systems. For example because of expected changes in climate and the consequences of subsidence, sea level rise, and urbanization. While the probability of flooding will increase, the degree of acceptance by Dutch society of possible flooding is decreasing. Society expects from the water manager that it may count on ""dry feet"". Within this context the task of water boards is to determine whether water systems are still suitable to provide sufficient protection against flooding. If not, the boards have to determine which improvements are necessary to raise the level of protection. However, nowadays more scenarios need to be incorporated in the analysis. This leads to the question whether the classic methods most commonly applied need to be adjusted or not. The thesis of this dissertation is that assessing the urgency to adapt an existing water system needs to be based on risk analysis. Next, identification of improvements should be based on cost/benefit analysis, because (1) this approach enables the specific local circumstances to be taken into account better than the present standards do; (2) it provides insights in the consequences of all kinds of future scenarios in a unit everyone can understand: money; and (3) the analysis supports a more transparent decision making process since it forces decision-makers to make explicit why it is attractive to take certain measures.","polder; risk; climate change impact","en","doctoral thesis","","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","","","","",""
"uuid:58a20cfa-ebe4-46b9-9df6-4872bde33dd7","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:58a20cfa-ebe4-46b9-9df6-4872bde33dd7","Sea level rise of the Netherlands","Van Baars, S.","","2007","Analysis of observations of sea level rise in the Netherlands related to physical effects in world climate.","sea level rise; climate change","en","report","TU Delft, Sectie Waterbouw","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:ac9c5019-4a53-4c2d-ab3c-e5f294d717be","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:ac9c5019-4a53-4c2d-ab3c-e5f294d717be","Coastal defence solutions (approach of ComCoast)","Verhagen, H.J.; Visser, P.J.","","2007","Along the North Sea coast, water levels are rising and waves are intensifying due to climate change. The best scientific evidence suggests that both phenomena are likely to accelerate over the coming decades. In some North Sea coastal areas also land is sinking and tidal heights and rates of erosion are increasing. This means that the risk of flooding is increasing while more people are living, working and spending their leisure time within the coastal flood plain. With the pressure to build more housing, planners are considering options for development in coastal areas. Flood risk, the environment and a dynamic coastline have to be balanced with this pressure for development. ComCoast is looking at how we use the coastal flood plain today and is seeking multifunctional solutions for its sustainable use in the future. The ComCoast concept is to create a more gradual transition from sea to land, instead of a traditional single line of water defence. The project is developing innovative flood risk management strategies to include wider social and environmental functions such as recreation, fishing, tourism and habitat creation. This approach aims at to highlight possibilities for developing the coastal area with respect to spatial planning, to benefit local and wider communities as well as maintaining the environment.","climate change; coastal protection","en","conference paper","IOER, Dresden, Germany","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:22600f82-6b18-423a-87c2-2cc0f802aef5","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:22600f82-6b18-423a-87c2-2cc0f802aef5","Impacts of climate change on the principles of dike design","Verhagen, H.J.","","2007","Dike design is a very traditional craft. Since many generations dikes have been constructed in our part of Europe. After each disaster the dike was rebuilt, and improved. The improvement was always based on the experiences of the previous flood. For example, for many years the design height of a dike was determined as the height of the highest observed flood, plus a certain margin (usually a value in the order of 1 m). Of course, experience had shown that we also had to add some extra freeboard to take care of the wave run-up.","climate change; dikes; revetments","en","conference paper","Elastogran, Lemförde (BASF)","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:2681bd2e-424e-43cd-b711-50673b594f79","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:2681bd2e-424e-43cd-b711-50673b594f79","Climate change - clouds remain the misty factor","Muller, M.","Jonker, H. (contributor); Russchenberg, H. (contributor)","2007","Clouds are the great unknown quantity in predictions about climate change. For aeons they have been drifting quietly across the sky, but scientists still dont know exactly how they are formed and why they eventually come down again as rain. High time to take a closer look at clouds, say researchers at Delft University of Technology. Politicians worry mostly about greenhouse gases","climate change; clouds","en","journal article","Delft University of Technology","","","","","","","","Applied Sciences","","","","",""
"uuid:d4d91a74-f896-43a8-b2cb-f0d7277702b4","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d4d91a74-f896-43a8-b2cb-f0d7277702b4","De rol van klimaatverandering in het Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat: Een verkenning","Kwadijk, J.C.J.","","2006","","klimaatverandering; climatic change; beleidsondersteuning; policy support","nl","report","Deltares (WL)","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"uuid:3d4b2a74-696d-4d18-88aa-2141141ca194","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:3d4b2a74-696d-4d18-88aa-2141141ca194","Effects of droughts and floods on the water quality and drinking water function of the river Meuse","Van Vliet, M.T.H.","","2006","","droughts; floods; water quality; drinking water; Meuse; metalloids; heavy metals; hydrocarbons; nutrients; pesticides; micro pollutants; climate change; CT04.20; Waterkwaliteit en Calamiteiten; CT04.22.11; Extreme afvoeren en waterkwaliteit; Delft Cluster","en","report","Delft Cluster","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"uuid:d54ff34e-f589-4d6a-8227-11a67ad38261","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d54ff34e-f589-4d6a-8227-11a67ad38261","The impact of climate change on the water quality of the Rhine river","Van Bokhoven, A.J.","","2006","In this research the effect of hydrological extremes on water quality are studied for the Rhine River, in order to assess potential water quality effects of climate change. The water quality of the Rhine was studied for the periods 1975-1977 and 1987-2005. During these periods eight hydrological extremes occured, five of which being classified as floods and three as periods of drought. The water quality during these hydrological extremes has been compared with the water quality in reference periods before and after the events. In total, fourty-one water quality parameters have been investigated, comprising general variables (e.g. temperature, suspended matter, dissolved oxygen), major ions, nutrients, heavy metals and metalloids, PAH's, pesticides and other organic mirco pollutants.","Rhine; climate change; water quality; floods; pesticides; metalloids; micro pollutants; CT04.20; Waterkwaliteit en Calamiteiten; CT04.22.11; Extreme afvoeren en waterkwaliteit; Delft Cluster","en","report","Delft Cluster","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"uuid:6ffcbbfa-df17-4f4c-9bd0-48a55bb67aca","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:6ffcbbfa-df17-4f4c-9bd0-48a55bb67aca","Runup and sand dune erosion along the coast of Ystad","Dahlerus, C.J.; Egermayer, D.","TU Braunschweig","2006","The main objectives of this study was to analyze waves and water levels, from existing climate data, to make conclusions about how the beach, particularly the sand dunes, at Ystad Sandskog has been influenced by the coastal climate up to today. Based on available forecasts, possible scenarios were developed for this area, making it possible to map critical sections on the beach with respect to runup, overtopping and erosion of the dunes.","Climate; Climate change; Coast; Coastal; Coastal Vulnerability; Erosion; Extremes; Morphology; Overtopping; sea dikes; Vulnerability; Waves","en","report","","","","","","","","","","","","","Floodsite",""
"uuid:56ff15a5-7a5d-40df-9292-b289b9cb236f","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:56ff15a5-7a5d-40df-9292-b289b9cb236f","Effect of climate change on the rivers Rhine and Meuse: Applying the KNMI 2006 scenarios using the HBV model","Linde, A.H. te","","2006","","klimaatverandering; climatic change; hydrologie; hydrology; modellering; modelling; stroomgebieden; river basins","en","report","Deltares (WL)","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"uuid:6058b770-5031-464e-bedc-d153da4c03bd","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:6058b770-5031-464e-bedc-d153da4c03bd","IMVULRES: A stepwise approach to identifying coastal adaptation strategies and measures","Kuijper, M.W.M.","","2003","","zeespiegelrijzing; sea level rise; klimaatverandering; climatic change; kustbeheer; coastal zone management","en","report","Deltares (WL)","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"uuid:a960ed3e-f36f-4f59-86dc-9ea80b2080fd","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:a960ed3e-f36f-4f59-86dc-9ea80b2080fd","Effecten van klimaatverandering op ecotopen van rijkswateren: Verbeterde versie","Haasnoot, M; Ververs, M.; Duel, H.","","2002","","klimaatverandering; climatic change; ecotopen; ecotopes; rijkswateren; national waters","nl","report","Deltares (WL)","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"uuid:ebda869c-5fe2-476f-b163-066d837dc377","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:ebda869c-5fe2-476f-b163-066d837dc377","Effecten van klimaatverandering op ecotopen van rijkswateren","Haasnoot, M.; Ververs, M.; Duel, H.","","2002","","klimaatverandering; climatic change; ecotopen; ecotopes; rijkswateren; national waters","nl","report","Deltares (WL)","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"uuid:31c5089e-4019-4457-b382-458ec8b0bf71","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:31c5089e-4019-4457-b382-458ec8b0bf71","FRHYMAP: Flood Risk and HYdrological MAPping","Anonymous, A.","TU Delft","2002","The general objective of the FRHYMAP project was to integrate within a single mesoscale basin, the transboundary Alzette river basin, the various aspects concerning flooding events, reaching from the hydro-climatological analysis of field data to the risk assessment of socio-economic impacts, taking into account past and future climate and landuse changes. It is shown that although no increasing trend was observed for annual rainfall over the last decades, winter precipitation increased and summer precipitation decreased due to an increase in westerly and southwesterly atmospheric circulation patterns. These changes resulted in higher maximum daily winter streamflow and more frequent groundwater resurgence and thus led to an increased flood hazard. Although the overall regime of the Alzette is more dependent on climate fluctuations, land use changes (mining activities, urbanisation) had a marked effect on the rainfall runoff relationship in some subbasins over the last decades. The development of easily transposable hydrological and hydraulic models allowed to define hydrological hazard producing and hydrological risk exposed areas, even in those areas where long hydrological observation series are lacking. The potential damage of flood scenarios was evaluated via flood risk mapping, based on monetary cost assessment on the one hand and on security deficit analysis on the other hand. The uncertainty analysis reveals that the reliability of these risk maps primarily depends on data quality. In order to increase public awareness about flood issues, an experimental hydro-climatological atlas has been developed, which contains information on the whole chain of processes that are relevant in terms of flood genesis.","climate change; flood; vulnerability","en","report","NCR","","","","","","","","","","","","Irma-Sponge",""
"uuid:2b42e67f-f260-4650-a8f4-2344a351137f","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:2b42e67f-f260-4650-a8f4-2344a351137f","A different approach to water: Water management policy in the 21st century","Anonymous, A.","De Vries, J.M. (contributor); Rijkswaterstaat","2000","This document outlines the Cabinet's position on water management policy in the 21st century. Immediately fuelling this is my concern about increasing water levels in the rivers, flooding, and the accelerated rise in sea level. In a country like the Netherlands, the geography of which is dominated by the sea and the mouths of four great rivers, water and natural space are inextricably bound to one another. For centuries, spatial planning in the low-lying Netherlands has been a matter of separating and maintaining the separation between land and water. And we have benefited from this, considering the fact that two-thirds of the gross national product (around NLG 400 billion annually) is generated domestically. But changes are brewing. Climatic changes are increasing the likelihood of flooding and water-related problems. In addition, population density continues to grow, as does the potential of the economy and, consequently, the vulnerability of the economy and society to disaster. Two undesirable developments that, in terms of safety, potentiate one another - a growing risk with even larger consequences. As such, the safety risk is growing at an accelerated pace (safety risk = chance multiplied by consequence). In 1999, together with the president of the Association of Water Boards (UvW), I requested an independent Committee to determine whether current water management policy is sufficiently equipped for the future - an effort that came none too soon. Across Europe and abroad, we have witnessed the consequences of superfluous water. The events in Switzerland, Italy and the UK have shown us the importance of looking ahead. The Committee concluded that the current water management system was not capable of responding to future developments. In order to keep the Netherlands safe, liveable and attractive in terms of water for inhabitants and investors for the century to come, a change in water management policy and in the way we approach water is required. This change involves the idea that the Netherlands will have to make more frequent concessions. We will have to relinquish space to water, and not win space from it, in order to curb the growing risk of disaster due to flooding, limit water-related problems and be able to store water for expected periods of drought. By this, I do not mean space in terms of the height of ever taller dykes or depth through continued channel dredging, but space in the sense of breadth. This will cost space, but in return we will increase safety and limit waterrelated problems. Safety is an interest that must play a different role in spatial planning. Only by relinquishing space can we set things right and if this is not done in a timely manner, water will sooner or later reclaim the space in its own, perhaps even dramatic, manner. My argument to innovate water management policy appears to be widely accepted, but more is required. It demands creativity, energy, time and money. Protecting the Netherlands from flooding will require repeated investments over a long period of time.","water management; coastal protection; climate change; policy; protection against flooding","en","report","Ministerie V&W / Verkeer & Waterstaat","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"uuid:f52abf06-e53b-4bbf-9626-2e2a2c5e8f2e","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:f52abf06-e53b-4bbf-9626-2e2a2c5e8f2e","World Water Vision: Making Water Everybody's Business","Cosgrove, W.J.; Rijsberman, F.R.","Rijkswaterstaat","2000","Vision of the World Water Council on the use of water in the next centrury.","water; water shortage; climate change","en","report","Earthscan Publications Ldt","","","","","","","","","","","","KWP-collection",""
"uuid:884b3a3e-f6a2-466d-b7d4-2889d93de4ac","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:884b3a3e-f6a2-466d-b7d4-2889d93de4ac","De keerzijde van ons klimaat","De Ronde, J.G.; Heinen, P.; Middelkoop, H.; Oerlemans, J.; Schuurmans, C.","Rijkswaterstaat","1998","Brochure over de effecten van klimaatverandering op het nederlandse watersysteem (kust en rivieren) - uitgavedatum geschat.","climate change; klimaatverandering","nl","report","Rijkswaterstaat, RIZA en RIKZ","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"uuid:9ec3e165-dbbf-4e95-9845-282a5ef1a24c","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:9ec3e165-dbbf-4e95-9845-282a5ef1a24c","Impact of Climatic Change on NW Mediterranean Deltas","Sánchez-Arcilla, A.; Jímenez, J.A.; Pont, D.; Capobianco, M.; Prat, N.; Provansal, M.; Fraunié, P.; Ruol, P.; Abrami, G.; De Vriend, H.J.; Day, J.W.; Stive, M.J.F.; Jelgersma, S.; Pernetta, J.; Sestini, G.","TU Delft","1997","Summary report of the MedDelt project. This project has studied the impact of climate change on the deltas in the northwestern Mediterranean sea.","climate change; Delta","en","report","Meddelt","","","","","","","","","","","","Meddelt",""
"uuid:d677bb4a-87de-41f6-9778-aade5b99638e","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d677bb4a-87de-41f6-9778-aade5b99638e","Climate change impact on the deltas of Ebro, Po and Rhone: Conceptual models for coastal fringes’ response","Capobianco, M.; Stive, M.J.F.","","1996","All the Mediterranean Dehas are submitted to a physical regression of their coastal fringes and dominated by the wave action because of the decreased water and sediment discharges, if compared to previous stages of their histories. The decrease of the discharges is a consequence of water and solid retention and deviation in the continental watershed and of the relative sea level rise, caused (mainly) by the land subsidence in the deltas and (to an extent that is difficuh to quantify with the present knowledge) by the eustatic sea level rise enhanced by the global climatic change. This paper aims to summarize the work undertaken in the MEDDELT Project regarding the characterisation of the dynamical morphological processes of the coastal fringes of the deltas of Ebro, Po and Rhone and in particular highlight the conceptual developments achieved regarding their integrated modelling. We define the coastal fringes to be those regions of the deltaic areas where there is typically a direct influence of sea dynamics on the evolution of the morphological characteristics on a time scale of decades. In practice, in both the deltas of Po and Rhone such areas may be delimited by sea dikes. This assumption rises the requirement to consider not just the direct natural mechanisms of influence but also the direct human induced ones, particularly in the long term evolution of these fringes. We start by discussing the relation between sea-level rise and coastal erosion and the ""pros and cons"" of applying the classical Bruun approach. We briefly describe the problem of definition of scales, the computation of budget and the physiographic unh approach with reference to climatic change related phenomena impacting on the fringes. We then focus on the modelling of the formation and reduction processes and the application of the physiographic unit approach. We conclude by introducing the topic of application of the models in an integrated framework as decision support tools.","delta; climate change","en","conference paper","Meddelt","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:baee2b79-35ae-49b0-a0e9-69972f8f534d","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:baee2b79-35ae-49b0-a0e9-69972f8f534d","Impact of climatic change on the Po Delta: Deltaic fringe modelling","Capobianco, M.; Stive, M.J.F.; Ruol, P.","","1996","With the present paper we aim at summarizing the work undertaken in the MEDDELT Project on the characterisation of the dynamical processes of the Po Delta Fringe and particulalry highlight the conceptual developments achieved about the integrated modelling. We assume to be in a region of the deltaic area where there is tipically a direct influence of sea dynamics on the evolution of the morphological characters on a time scale of decades. In practice in the Po Delta such area is delimited by sea dikes. This assumption rises the requirement to consider not just the direct natural mechanisms of influence but also the direct human induced ones particularly in the long term evolution of the Po Delta fringe. We briefly describe the problem of definition of scales, the computation of budget and the physiographic unit approach with reference to climatic change related phenomena impacting on the Po Delta fringe. As a first approach we go deeper into the application of the classical Bruun approach in the evaluation of the effects of relative sea level rise in the coastal area. We then focus on the modelling of the formation and reduction processes and on the application of the physiographic unit approach. We conclude by discussing the topic of predictability and application of the models in an integrated framework as decision support tools.","Po delta; Delta; climate change","en","conference paper","Meddelt","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:445489c0-e497-46ae-a65f-1cc48290d260","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:445489c0-e497-46ae-a65f-1cc48290d260","Behaviour-oriented models of shoreface evolution","Stive, M.J.F.; De Vriend, H.J.; Cowell Peter, J.; Niedoroda, A.W.","","1995","","Coastal zones Geomorphology Mathematical models Mapping Climate change Coastal engineering Sediments Hydrodynamics Shoreface Behaviour oriented models Morphological response Large scale coastal behaviour Topography 471.1 (Oceanography General) 481.1.1 (Ge","en","conference paper","ASCE","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"uuid:804690e4-f40f-406a-9d0f-59710e4b5f8c","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:804690e4-f40f-406a-9d0f-59710e4b5f8c","Vulnerability of Bangladesh to climate change and sea level rise","Anonymus, N.N.","TU delft","1994","Concepts and tools for calculating risk in integrated coastal zone management. This summary document highlights the main analyses and findings of the technical and institutional components of the pilot study, which are reported in separate documents. In subsequent chapters attention will be paid to the problems addressed, the approach followed, the results obtained and the conclusions and recommendations drawn. Chapter 2 introduces the worldwide climate change problem and concern, and discusses the consequences for Bangladesh in more detail. The general IPCC approach - which formed the starting point for the Bangladesh pilot study -- was adapted in accordance with the specific conditions and concerns for Bangladesh. An overview of the approach followed is presented in chapter 3, while more details can be found in chapters 4 and 5. These chapters present main components of the impact analysis: the assessment of primary physical effects; and the impacts on human and eco-systems. Special reference is made to the establishment of the vulnerability profile of Bangladesh in chapter 7. This chapter introduces a new methodology to integrate the impacts on natural and human systems and to account for the capability of Bangladesh to implement responsive strategies. Such strategies and problems with their implementation are discussed in chapter 6. Chapters 8 and 9, finally, give the conclusions and recommendations.","vulnerability; sea level rise; climate change; Bangladesh","en","report","Resource Analysis","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"uuid:e20c85f6-f1f1-4107-9397-e9227f88388b","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:e20c85f6-f1f1-4107-9397-e9227f88388b","Long term evolution of coastal morphology and global change","Capobianco, M.; De Vriend, H.J.; Nicholls, R.J.; Stive, M.J.F.","","1993","Long-term prediction of sediment transport and of morphological behaviour in the coastal zone, in response to human interference or to change in environmental conditions (collectively global change) is an increasingly important issue in coastal zone management, especially in relation to the needs for environmentally compatible development. Having in mind those aspects of the response of the coastal system related to long term dynamics of coastal morphology, the paper briefly describes possible approaches to environmental modelling, particularly the modelling of coasts in a typical context of poor experimental information and process knowledge. These approaches will be of help in the impact and vulnerability assessment required for coastal zone management. Reference will mainly be made to long term modelling activities currently performed in the context of the MAST (Marine Science and Technology Program) morphodynamic project on coastal morphology and to possible approaches to ""qualitative"" modelling which may be used to define tendencies of evolution. lt is argued that significant progress in long-term modelling can be made by adopting an appropriate conceptual framework, particularly a top-down approach. This involves formalizing knowledge and experience and integrating data and available models.","climate change; coastal morphology","en","conference paper","","","","","","","","","Civil Engineering and Geosciences","Hydraulic Engineering","","","",""
"uuid:a47263da-9b37-41ae-b58d-55f080cc9549","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:a47263da-9b37-41ae-b58d-55f080cc9549","Impact of sea level rise on society: A case study for the Netherlands, phase 1","","","1988","","Nederland; risico-analyse; risk analysis; zeespiegelrijzing; sea level rise; zeestand; sea level; klimaatverandering; climatic change","en","report","Deltares (WL)","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"uuid:8dd9a98e-70a6-4728-8b73-97ae369d8787","http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:8dd9a98e-70a6-4728-8b73-97ae369d8787","Das Eis auf den Niederländischen Flüssen und die Klimaänderung seit dem Jahre 1879","van Veen, J.","Rijkswaterstaat","1939","Study on the relation between climate change and ice cover in the Dutch rivers since 1879.","freeze-up; ice cover; climate change; river freezing","de","report","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""