A Spatial Markov Chain Cellular Automata Model for the Spread of the COVID-19 virus: Including parameter estimation

In this bachelor thesis we propose a spatial Markov Chain Cellular Automata<br/>model for the spread of the COVID-19 virus as well as two methods for parameter<br/>estimation. Network topologies are used to model the progression of the epidemic<br/>by considering each individual on a grid and using stochastic principles to determine the...

Time-dependent solution of the NIMFA equations around the epidemic threshold

The majority of epidemic models are described by non-linear differential equations which do not have a closed-form solution. Due to the absence of a closed-form solution, the understanding of the precise dynamics of a virus is rather limited. We solve the differential equations of the N-intertwined mean-field approximation of the susceptible...

Investigating an automated method for the sensitivity analysis of functions

Automated sensitivity analysis approaches in system dynamics focus primarily on model parameters. Although table functions are often subjectively approximated, they do not form the focus of most sensitivity analyses. Recently, a promising approach that allows automation of sensitivity analysis on functions was proposed by Hearne (2010), but the...