Modelling Uncertainty: Developing and Using Simulation Models for Exploring the Consequences of Deep Uncertainty in Complex Problems

Simulation models are increasingly used for exploring the consequences of deep uncertainty in complex societal issues. The complexity of societal grand challenges, often characterised by the interrelatedness of different elements in the systems underlying these challenges, often renders mental simulation impossible, necessitating the use of...

Parallel use of agent-based and System Dynamics modelling: Multi-method scenario discovery of gas import dependency

With the decline of conventional gas resources in many industrialised regions, energy security has increasingly become a topic of interest. Fuelled by disturbed diplomatic relations, both national and regional governments have the desire to decrease their dependency on foreign nations for their gas supply. However, the energy future of these...