Estimating loss of life caused by dam breaches based on the simulation of floods routing and evacuation potential of population at risk

Dam breaches often have catastrophic consequences in downstream areas. Hydrodynamic factors and the evacuation potential of the population at risk (PAR) have significant impacts on the loss of life (LOL) caused by dam breaches. However, the existing comprehensive evaluation models have not conducted in-depth research on the evacuation...

Assessing economic risk, safety standards, and decision-making

Risk-informed decision-making needs methods for assessing flood risk, and often the flooding probability and the consequences of floods (such as economic damage and fatalities) play an important role in the risk assessment. Also, measures to reduce the flood risk need to be formulated, in order to make a risk-informed decision, whether to...

Impact assessment for the area of dikering 14 under the influence of sea level rise

Climate change is a major problem for today's society, which has a huge impact on water safety issues. Recent IPCC scenarios show that sea level rises of 1m by 2100 and 2m beyond 2200 should be seriously considered. Several scenarios show an increase in river discharge of between 10 and 20 percent of the Rhine generated by extreme precipitation...

Impact of hydraulic model resolution and loss of life model modification on flood fatality risk estimation: Case study of the Bommelerwaard, The Netherlands

Flood simulations are important for flood (fatality) risk assessment. This article provides insight into the sensitivity of flood fatality risks to the model resolution of flood simulations and to several uncertain parameters in the loss of life model used. A case study is conducted for river flooding in a polder in the Netherlands (the...

The Impact of Autonomous Ships on Safety at Sea – A Statistical Analysis

The advent of autonomous ships that are unmanned or low-manned will reduce the number of people at risk at sea. Even when autonomous navigation does not reduce the number of accidents, this means that safety at sea will increase. In fact, increased safety is one of the primary perceived drivers for autonomous shipping, although this safety...

Improving flood fatality risk assessment for river flooding in the Netherlands: Implications of alternative functions and model resolution variations on mortality and fatalities in the Bommelerwaard

The number of fatalities due to a potential flood event is traditionally determined utilizing 'mortality functions’. Data of recent large-scale flooding in the Netherlands are not available since the Netherlands was successful in flood prevention. Therefore, only data from the last coastal flood event in 1953 with 1795 direct fatalities are...

Global mortality from storm surges is decreasing

Changes in society's vulnerability to natural hazards are important to understand, as they determine current and future risks, and the need to improve protection. Very large impacts including high numbers of fatalities occur due to single storm surge flood events. Here, we report on impacts of global coastal storm surge events since the year...

A comparative study on methods for loss of life estimation: Applications to case studies in the United States

In the Netherlands, USA and other countries methods for the analysis of loss of life and evacuation associated with flooding are used in flood risk management. This paper compares the methods from the US and Netherlands in this field and considers both methodological principles as well as the outcomes for various case studies. Similarities and...

The use of individual and societal risk criteria within the Dutch flood safety policy-nationwide estimates of societal risk and policy applications

The Dutch government is in the process of revising its flood safety policy. The current safety standards for flood defences in the Netherlands are largely based on the outcomes of cost-benefit analyses. Loss of life has not been considered separately in the choice for current standards. This article presents the results of a research project...

New safety standards for coastal flood defences in the Netherlands

The Dutch government is in the process of revising its flood safety policy. The current safety standards for flood defences in the Netherlands are largely based on the outcomes of cost-benefit analyses. Loss of life has not been considered separately in the choice for current standards. This article presents the results of a research project...

Loss of life caused by floods: An overview of mortality statistics for worldwide floods

Consequences of floods: The development of a method to estimate the loss of life