Probabilistic failure assessment of oil pipelines due to internal corrosion

Oil and gas pipelines play a key role in the safe and efficient delivery of energy resources around the world. Crude oil by itself is not corrosive, but oil extracted from geological reservoirs is accompanied by varying amounts of water and acidic gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2), which can form a corrosive combination. Estimating the...

Quantitative resilience assessment of chemical process systems using functional resonance analysis method and Dynamic Bayesian network

The emergent hazards of chemical process systems cannot be wholly identified and are highly uncertain due to the complicated technical-human-organizational interactions. Under uncertain and unpredictable circumstances, resilience becomes an essential property of a chemical process system that helps it better adapt to disruptions and restore...

BN-SLIM: A Bayesian network methodology for human reliability assessment based on Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM)

Success Likelihood Index Model (SLIM) is one of the widely-used deterministic techniques in human reliability assessment especially when data is insufficient. However, this method suffers from epistemic uncertainty as it extremely relies on expert judgment for determining the model parameters such as the rates and weights of the performance...

Resilience-based optimal firefighting to prevent domino effects in process plants

Domino effects triggered by fire can cause extremely severe damages to the chemical and process plants. In the need of a more effective prevention of fire domino effects, the present study focuses on firefighting which has received less attention compared to passive and active fire protection systems. Considering both the vulnerability and...

Integration of Genetic Algorithm and Monte Carlo Simulation for System Design and Cost Allocation Optimization in Complex Network

Complex networks play a vital role in reliability analysis of real-world applications, demanding for precise and accurate analysis methods for optimal allocations of cost and reliability. Since the configuration of a system may change with every feasible solution of cost allocation optimization equation, finding the best arrangement of the...

Combining Bayesian Networks and Fishbone Diagrams to Distinguish between Intentional Attacks and Accidental Technical Failures

Because of modern societies' dependence on industrial control systems, adequate response to system failures is essential. In order to take appropriate measures, it is crucial for operators to be able to distinguish between intentional attacks and accidental technical failures. However, adequate decision support for this matter is lacking. In...

Improving the performance of Success Likelihood Index Model (SLIM) using Bayesian Network

Success Likelihood Index Model (SLIM) is one of the widely-used methods in human reliability assessment especially when data is insufficient. However, this method suffers from uncertainty as it heavily relies on expert judgment for determining the model parameters such as the rates and weights of the performance shaping factors. The present...

Modeling wildfire spread in wildland-industrial interfaces using dynamic Bayesian network

Global warming and the subsequent increase in the frequency and severity of wildfires demand for specialized risk assessment and management methodologies to cope with the ever-increasing risk of wildfires in wildland-industrial interfaces (WIIs). Wildfires can jeopardize the safety and integrity of industrial plants, and trigger secondary...

System safety assessment under epistemic uncertainty: Using imprecise probabilities in Bayesian network

System safety and reliability assessment relies on historical data and experts opinion for estimating the required failure probabilities. When data comes from different sources, be it different databases or subject domain experts, the estimation of accurate probabilities would be very challenging, if not impossible, and subject to high epistemic...

Cost-effective fire protection of chemical plants against domino effects

The propagation of fire-induced domino effects in chemical plants largely depends on the primary fire scenario, on separation distances between the units, and on the presence of fire protection barriers. Passive and active safety barriers are widely employed to prevent or delay the initiation or propagation of domino effects. In the present...

Texas LPG fire: Domino effects triggered by natural hazards

On February 2007, a massive fire in a propane de-asphalting unit in an oil refinery in Texas, USA happened due to liquid propane release from a cracked pipe in a control station injuring four people, damaging extensive equipment, causing significant business interruption, and resulting in more than $50 million losses. The accident was...

Application of dynamic Bayesian network to performance assessment of fire protection systems during domino effects

The propagation of fire in chemical plants – also known as fire domino effects - largely depends on the performance of add-on passive and active protection systems such as sprinkler systems, water deluge systems, emergency shut down and emergency blow down systems, fireproofing, and emergency response. Although such safety barriers are widely...

Vulnerability of industrial plants to flood-induced natechs: A Bayesian network approach

In the context of natural-technological (natech) accidents, flood-induced damage of industrial plants have received relatively less attention mainly due to the scarcity of such accidents compared to those triggered by earthquakes, high winds, and lightnings. The large amount of oil spillage due to floods triggered by the Hurricanes Katrina and...

Security vulnerability assessment of gas pipelines using discrete-time Bayesian network

Security of chemical and oil & gas facilities became a pressing issue after the terrorist attacks of 9/11, due to relevant quantities of hazardous substances that may be present in these sites. Oil & gas pipelines, connecting such facilities, might be potential targets for intentional attacks. The majority of methods addressing pipeline...

Fragility assessment of chemical storage tanks subject to floods

In the context of natural-technological (natech) accidents, flood-induced damage of chemical facilities have received relatively less attention mainly due to the scarcity of experimental or high resolution field observations. In the present study, we have introduced a methodology based on load-resistance relationships to assess the vulnerability...

Dynamic safety assessment of natural gas stations using Bayesian network

Pipelines are one of the most popular and effective ways of transporting hazardous materials, especially natural gas. However, the rapid development of gas pipelines and stations in urban areas has introduced a serious threat to public safety and assets. Although different methods have been developed for risk analysis of gas transportation...