Evaluating the choice of radial basis functions in multiobjective optimal control applications

Evolutionary Multi-Objective Direct Policy Search (EMODPS) is a prominent framework for designing control policies in multi-purpose environmental systems, combining direct policy search with multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) to identify Pareto approximate control policies. While EMODPS is effective, the choice of functions...

Exploring global approximators for multiobjective reservoir control

Efficient multi-purpose reservoir control policies are crucial in the face of frequent and severe floods and droughts, and to balance water allocation across conflicting demands. Evolutionary Multi-Objective Direct Policy Search (EMODPS) is a popular approach to design control policies for multi-purpose reservoir systems. EMODPS, however, relies...

How to evaluate a monitoring system for adaptive policies: criteria for signposts selection and their model-based evaluation

Adaptive policies have emerged as a valuable strategy for dealing with uncertainties by recognising the capacity of systems to adapt over time to new circumstances and surprises. The efficacy of adaptive policies hinges on detecting on-going change and ensuring that actions are indeed taken if and when necessary. This is operationalised by...

Modeling with stakeholders for transformative change

Coherent responses to important problems such as climate change require involving a multitude of stakeholders in a transformative process leading to development of policy pathways. The process of coming to an agreement on policy pathways requires critical reflection on underlying system conceptualizations and commitment to building capacity...

Assessing the capacity of adaptive policy pathways to adapt on time by mapping trigger values to their outcomes

Climate change raises serious concerns for policymakers that want to ensure the success of long-term policies. To guarantee satisfactory decisions in the face of deep uncertainties, adaptive policy pathways might be used. Adaptive policy pathways are designed to take actions according to how the future will actually unfold. In adaptive...

Comparing Robust Decision-Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for model-based decision support under deep uncertainty

A variety of model-based approaches for supporting decision-making under deep uncertainty have been suggested, but they are rarely compared and contrasted. In this paper, we compare Robust Decision-Making with Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. We apply both to a hypothetical case inspired by a river reach in the Rhine Delta of the Netherlands...

Adaptive delta management: Roots and branches

Deltas are generally recognized as vulnerable to climate change and therefore a salient topic in adaptation science. Deltas are also highly dynamic systems viewed from physical (erosion, sedimentation, subsidence), social (demographic), economic (trade), infrastructures (transport, energy, metropolization) and cultural (multiethnic) perspectives...

Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world

A new paradigm for planning under conditions of deep uncertainty has emerged in the literature. According to this paradigm, a planner should create a strategic vision of the future, commit to short-term actions, and establish a framework to guide future actions. A plan that embodies these ideas allows for its dynamic adaptation over time to meet...

Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty

There is increasing interest in long-term plans that can adapt to changing situations under conditions of deep uncertainty. We argue that a sustainable plan should not only achieve economic, environmental, and social objectives, but should be robust and able to be adapted over time to (unforeseen) future conditions. Large numbers of papers...

A system dynamics mode-based exploratory analysis of salt water intrusion in coastal aquifers

Coastal communities dependent upon groundwater resources for drinking water and irrigation are vulnerable to salinization of the groundwater reserve. The increasing uncertainty associated with changing climatic conditions, population and economic development, and technological advances poses significant challenges for freshwater management. The...

Designing Adaptive Policy Pathways for Sustainable Water Management under Uncertainty: Lessons Learned from Two Cases

Water management in river deltas is increasingly being challenged by pressures from population growth, sea level rise, increasing variability in river runoffs, and potential climate change. Adaptation to such changes is not only determined by what is known or anticipated at present, but also by what will be experienced and learned as the future...

Strategies to combat salt water intrusion in coastal aquifers: A model-based exploratory analysis

Coastal communities dependent upon groundwater resources for drinking water and irrigation are vulnerable to salinization of the groundwater reserve. The increasing uncertainty associated with changing climatic conditions, population and economic development, and technological advances in agriculture, water treatment, and water purification,...

Does learning to reflect make better modelers?

In this paper we address the role of reflective skills in the development and training of new System Dynamics modelers at the tertiary education level. Over the last two years students at the Delft University of Technology have written a reflective essay on their experiences with the conceptualization, formulation, validation and use of a System...