Safety analysis of passing maneuvers using extreme value theory

The increased availability of detailed trajectory data sets from naturalistic, observational and simulation-based studies are a key source for potential improvements in the development of detailed safety models that explicitly account for vehicle conflict interactions and the various driving maneuvers. Despite the well-recognized research...

Introducing the Core Probability Framework and Discrete-Element Core Probability Model for efficient stochastic macroscopic modelling

In this contribution the Core Probability Framework (CPF) is introduced with the application of the Discrete-Element Core Probability Model (DE-CPM) as a new DNL for dynamic macroscopic modelling of stochastic traffic flow. The model is demonstrated for validation in a test case and for computational efficiency on two simple networks. The CPF...

Does a more sophisticated storm erosion model improve probabilistic erosion estimates?

The dependency between the accuracy/uncertainty of storm erosion exceedance estimates obtained via a probabilistic model and the level of sophistication of the structural function (storm erosion model) embedded in the probabilistic model is assessed via the application of Callaghan et al.'s (2008) Joint Probability Model (JPM) at Narrabeen beach...

Modelling the 1775 storm surge deposits at the Heemskerk dunes

After a storm surge in November 2007, older storm surge deposits were discovered in the eroded dunes near Heemskerk, the Netherlands. These deposits undulate in height with a maximum elevation of over 6 m above mean sea level. Luminescence dating suggests that the layers were deposited by either the 1775 or the 1776 storm surge. The aim of this...

Project plan SBW \ boundary conditions \ wind modelling. Part 1: General project description

There is fragmentation and gaps in the approach to dealing with the required improvements to the wind models. Coordination is required for a balanced and efficient approach. The intended purpose of this document is to be a plan for this coordination. This approach can be embedded in the SBW project at diverse crucial points that require...

Probabilistic assessment of the performance of combined sewer systems