An empirical study into how cyber security professionals deal with uncertainty in information security risk assessments: Understanding perceptual aspects and judgment operations

The information security (IS) risk assessment process is an essential part to organisation's their protection of digital assets. However, the fast changing IS environment causes for limited knowledge of eventualities, dependencies and values of systems and phenomena. Consequently, the IS risk assessment process is depending on the judgment of...

Accounting for the uncertain effects of hydraulic interactions in optimising embankments heights: Proof of principle for the IJssel River

Most alluvial plains in the world are protected by flood defences, for example, embankments, whose primary aim is to reduce the probability of flooding of the protected areas. At the same time, however, the presence of embankments at one area influences hydraulic conditions of downstream areas located on the same river. These hydraulic...

The economic risk for inland water transport due to uncertainty in morphodynamic behaviour

River systems are vastly changing environments, not only due to natural process, but also human intervention plays an important role. With the many different river functions at play, large amounts of maintenance budgets are associated with river management. For decision makers it is important to know expected costs or losses and the spread...

Real time floodrisk management

The central issue for authorities (as well as the public) is how and when to respond to forecasted extreme water levels on rivers, lakes and along the coast and large-scale flooding is an actual risk. The decision-making process is influenced by contradicting information, overloads and gaps in information, rumours, uncertainties in forecasts,...

Operational flood forecasting, warning and response for multi-scale flood risks in developing cities

Flood early warning systems are recognized as one of the most effective flood risk management instruments when correctly embedded in comprehensive flood risk management strategies and policies. Many efforts around the world are being put in place to advance the components that determine the effectiveness of a flood early warning system. The aim...

Upscaling coastal flood risk assessment - Insight into the uncertainty of a continental-scale model

During the last years, flood risk assessments at continental and global scales are emerging as useful tools for risk hotspot identification, support for international policy-making and harmonization of strategies for climate change adaptation. The emergence of these models comes to cover the growing demand for integrated, large-scale risk...

Mapping Geotechnical Risk for Infrastructural Works in Deltaic Areas

This paper presents method and first results of a study to quantify and communicate geotechnical risk for highway construction on soft soil and large building pits associated with infrastructural works in the Netherlands. A set of easy-to-read maps will inform the end users, geotechnical consultants at the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and...

Coping with the uncertainties in the climate change adaptation of river dikes using risk-aversion economic optimization

To guarantee a safe flood defence in a changing environment, the adaptation to climate change needs to be considered in the design of river dikes. However, the large uncertainty in the projections of future climate leads to varied estimations of future flood probability. How to cope with the uncertainties in future flood probability under...

The resilience approach to climate adaptation applied for flood risk

This dissertation presents a potential way forward for adaptation to climate change, termed the resilience approach. This approach takes a dynamic perspective on adaptive processes and the effects of these processes at/across different spatio-temporal scales. Experience is provided with four methods that can be used to apply the resilience...

“SimDelta”: Inquiry into an internet-based interactive model for water infrastructure development in The Netherlands

The Dutch Delta Program is currently developing new government policies for flood protection and fresh water supply. Decision support instruments have to address the program’s technical and political complexity. The water system functions are highly interwoven and would benefit from an integrated approach on a national level, with decisions...

Fault tree analysis for urban flooding

Traditional methods to evaluate flood risk mostly focus on storm events as the main cause of flooding. Fault tree analysis is a technique that is able to model all potential causes of flooding and to quantify both the overall probability of flooding and the contributions of all causes of flooding to the overall flood probability. This paper...

Defining Uncertainty: A Conceptual Basis for Uncertainty Management in Model-Based Decision Support

The aim of this paper is to provide a conceptual basis for the systematic treatment of uncertainty in model-based decision support activities such as policy analysis, integrated assessment and risk assessment. It focuses on the uncertainty perceived from the point of view of those providing information to support policy decisions (i.e., the...