Expert judgment-based reliability analysis of the Dutch flood defense system

The Wettelijk Beoordelingsinstrumentarium (WBI) is the legal set of instruments for flood risk analysis in the Netherlands. Often, engineers have the impression that some failure probabilities of flood defenses resulting from these instruments are overestimated. In an effort to better estimate the failure probabilities of dikes along the...

Decision support for offshore asset construction using expert judgments for supply disruptions risk

Offshore asset construction is a complex and costly process that is subject to various uncertainties within the entire supply chain. Hence, both the construction management optimization and the reduction of deployment expenditures should be supported by automated decision support models which include proper representations of predominant...

A Copula-Based Bayesian Network for Modeling Compound Flood Hazard from Riverine and Coastal Interactions at the Catchment Scale: An Application to the Houston Ship Channel, Texas

Traditional flood hazard analyses often rely on univariate probability distributions; however, in many coastal catchments, flooding is the result of complex hydrodynamic interactions between multiple drivers. For example, synoptic meteorological conditions can produce considerable rainfall-runoff, while also generating wind-driven elevated sea...

Applying a Bayesian network based on Gaussian copulas to model the hydraulic boundary conditions for hurricane flood risk analysis in a coastal watershed

In recent years significant emphasis has been placed on quantifying coastal flood hazards in the U.S. using high resolution 2-D hydrodynamic and nearshore wave models. However, these studies are computationally expensive and often neglect to consider the flooding that arises from the combined hazards of precipitation and storm surge in coastal...

Trends in flood exposure and vulnerability: Europe 1870–2016

Objectives<br/>Since the beginning of the second industrial revolution in the second half of the 19th century, Europe’s society and economy has been profoundly transformed. The population doubled in the last 150 years, together with more than fourfold increase in number of dwellings and 30-fold increase in production value in real terms. At the...

Climate change in asset management of infrastructure: A risk-based methodology applied to disruption of traffic on road networks due to the flooding of tunnels

This paper presents a risk-based method to quantify climate change effects on road infrastructure, as a support for decision-making on interventions. This can be implemented in climate adaptation plans as an element of asset management. The method is illustrated by a specific case in which traffic on a road network is disrupted by the flooding...

An Integrated Approach for Risk Assessment of CO2 Infrastructure in the COCATE Project

An innovative risk analysis model has been developed in order to quantify and analyse safety risks related to loss-of- containment scenarios in the pipeline transport of CO2. The risk model integrates the identified failure modes, consequence estimates and emergency response, producing consistent risk profiles based on complete outcome spaces...