An adaptive robust optimization scheme for water-flooding optimization in oil reservoirs using residual analysis

Model-based dynamic optimization of the water-flooding process in oil reservoirs is a computationally complex problem and suffers from high levels of uncertainty. A traditional way of quantifying uncertainty in robust water-flooding optimization is by considering an ensemble of uncertain model realizations. These models are generally not...

An Activity-Based Multimodal Model Structure to assess Transportation Management Strategies for Urban Emergencies

There are many kinds of disasters that can severely impact the transportation system of an urbanized region. Transportation authorities therefore need to develop management strategies to adequately deal with such emergencies. In this paper, we discuss the structure of a simulation model that can be used to assess a candidate strategy. We model...

Robust ensemble-based multi-objective optimization

We consider robust ensemble-based multi-objective optimization using a hierarchical switching algorithm for combined long-term and short term water flooding optimization. We apply a modified formulation of the ensemble gradient which results in improved performance compared to earlier formulations. We also apply multi-dimensional scaling to...

A Multi-Pathfinder for Developing Adaptive Robust Policies in System Dynamics

Adaptivity is essential for dynamically complex and uncertain systems. Adaptive policymaking is an approach to design policies that can be adapted over time to how the future unfolds. It is crucial for adaptive policymaking to specify under what conditions and how to adapt the policy. The performance of adaptive policy is critically depended on...

Adaptive policymaking under deep uncertainty: Optimal preparedness for the next pandemic

The recent flu pandemic in 2009 caused a panic about the possible consequences due to deep uncertainty about an unknown virus. Overstock of vaccines or unnecessary social measures to be taken were all due to uncertainty. However, what should be the necessary actions to take in such deeply uncertain situation where there is no or very little...