Polder pumping-station for the future: designing and retrofitting infrastructure systems under structural uncertainty

In designing and retrofitting infrastructure systems, engineers are increasingly confronted by uncertainties about the future operating conditions of these systems, stemming from climate change or rapid socio-economic development. Particularly for long-lived capital-intensive infrastructure components like pumping stations, current...

Impact of Scenario Selection on Robustness

Multiple plausible future scenarios are being used increasingly in preference to a single deterministic or probabilistic prediction of the future in the long-term planning of water resources systems. These scenarios enable the determination of the robustness of a system—the consideration of performance across a range of plausible futures—and...

Robustness Metrics: How Are They Calculated, When Should They Be Used and Why Do They Give Different Results?

Robustness is being used increasingly for decision analysis in relation to deep uncertainty and many metrics have been proposed for its quantification. Recent studies have shown that the application of different robustness metrics can result in different rankings of decision alternatives, but there has been little discussion of what potential...

Adapt or Perish: An Approach to Planning Under Deep Uncertainty

Much policy advice is formulated implicitly assuming that the future can be predicted. A static policy is developed using a single ‘most likely’ future, often based on the extrapolation of trends; or a static ‘robust’ policy is developed that will produce acceptable outcomes in a range of plausible future worlds. However, if the future turns out...

Exploring carbon futures in the EU power sector: Using Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis to explore policy regimes under deep uncertainty

The European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) in combination with other renewable electricity (RES-E) support schemes such as (premium) feed-in tariffs or tradable green certificates do not guarantee a carbon neutral power sector in 2050. This paper shows that many plausible futures of high carbon emissions exist when no substantial efficiency...

A Multi-Pathfinder for Developing Adaptive Robust Policies in System Dynamics

Adaptivity is essential for dynamically complex and uncertain systems. Adaptive policymaking is an approach to design policies that can be adapted over time to how the future unfolds. It is crucial for adaptive policymaking to specify under what conditions and how to adapt the policy. The performance of adaptive policy is critically depended on...

Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty

There is increasing interest in long-term plans that can adapt to changing situations under conditions of deep uncertainty. We argue that a sustainable plan should not only achieve economic, environmental, and social objectives, but should be robust and able to be adapted over time to (unforeseen) future conditions. Large numbers of papers...

Exploring Carbon Futures in the EU Power Sector: Using Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis to Assess Policy Regimes under Deep Uncertainty

The current European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) in combination with other renewable electricity (RES-E) support schemes such as a premium feed-in tariff (FIT) or tradable green certificates system (TGC) do not guarantee a carbon neutral power sector in 2050. This study shows that many plausible high carbon emissions futures exist when no...

Adaptive policymaking under deep uncertainty: Optimal preparedness for the next pandemic

The recent flu pandemic in 2009 caused a panic about the possible consequences due to deep uncertainty about an unknown virus. Overstock of vaccines or unnecessary social measures to be taken were all due to uncertainty. However, what should be the necessary actions to take in such deeply uncertain situation where there is no or very little...