Supporting Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty techniques with hydraulic modeling

Infrastructure is at risk to climate uncertainty due to a combination of long life spans, complexity of the systems it is embedded in, and the high investment costs often necessary. Current infrastructure planning approaches lose efficacy under deep uncertainty, necessitating new approaches that function better under conditions where the future...

Robust decision making for future train maintenance: Illustrating the abilities of decision making under deep uncertainty within the train maintenance context

This research has illustrated the abilities of incorporating robust decision making within train maintenance. Both scheduled and unscheduled maintenance processes of the Nederlandse Spoorwegen (NS) have been examined, after which exploratory modeling and analysis enabled developing valuable insights for decision makers. Scenario analysis through...

Impact of Similarity Metric Selectionfor Multiclass Scenario Discovery ofLand-Use Change Models

Land-use change models are often used to explore future land-use. Currently, most land-use change models run a small number of predetermined scenarios. To better address the multidimensional nature of uncertainty about the future, previous studies have argued for covering a wider range of the uncertainty space than is possible with existing...

Scenario Discovery in land use change models

There are bidirectional interactions between land-use and environmental systems: the way land is used has impacts on the environment, while changes in the environment have impacts on the way land is used. The use of Land Use Change models enables policy makers to gain insights into possible developments of the land-use system, the possible...

A dependent sampling approach to Scenario Discovery

The use of scenario planning has a long history in decision-making and public policy (Bryant and Lempert, 2010). Traditional scenario planning, as, for example, used by the Shell Scenarios group, provides tools to communicate and characterize uncertainty,allowing decision-makers to anticipate the future and create more robust strategies ...

Uncertainty in Long-Term Grid Planning: Approaching Transmission Expansion Planning through the Framework of Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

Motivations for sustainability are initiating an energy transition that is changing the European energy domain. The transition effectuated the adaptation of large volumes of wind and solar based generation capacity. The intermittent power-output of these Variable Renewable Energy Sources challenges the balancing operation of the electricity...

Towards Resilient Urban Stormwater Management in a Tsunami Reconstruction: A Scenario Discovery Study on Ötsuchi Town, Japan

In the face of climate change, urban stormwater management practices are subject to an uncertain context. More frequent and extreme rainfall events are expected in many urban areas. The extent how climate change will affect weather patterns is however uncertain. This challenges contemporary stormwater management practices. A post-disaster...

Decline of private investments in the Greek economy and the way forward

Greece was amongst the first countries to be hit after the outburst of the European financial crisis in 2008. The crisis revealed the underlying intra-Eurozone macroeconomic imbalances and turned the attention of the global community and investors towards the very high level of Greek public debt. Private investments in the Greek economy also...

Behavior-Based Scenario Discovery: Induction of decision-relevant input subspaces from nonlinear model outputs using time series clustering

Many societal, environmental and technological challenges can be characterized as wicked problems by virtue of being difficult to understand, define and solve. examples include sustainable management and consumption of resources, resilient technical infrastructure or curbing plastic pollution of the oceans. One method of tackling such wicked...

Society's response to climate change - A scenario discovery study using agent-based modelling

This research has been aimed at identifying internally consistent and plausible narratives on the pathways of society’s response to climate change. In this research, society’s response to climate change has been interpreted as the emergence of climate change mitigation action by society. Studying society’s response to climate change is hampered...

Supporting the adoption of smart grid appliances in city districts: A quantitative evaluation of policy options using agent-based modelling and scenario discovery

Three main goals have been assigned to Dutch electricity policy: a reliable, affordable and clean electricity sector. In order to make the electricity section cleaner by decreasing GHG emissions, the SDE+ regulation has been introduced to increase the share of renewable energies in the overall electricity production. The drawback of the...

LPG Terminal Hotspot Identification - The application of Scenario Discovery to a forecast model

Vopak is the world largest independent tank storage provider, specialized in storing liquid chemicals, gasses & oil products and is active in 29 countries. For the storage of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), a global strategy was constructed in 2010, in which LPG terminal opportunities have been identified and which is now out of date. The problem...