Bayesian Inference of Piping Model Uncertainties Based on Field Observations

This paper presents a Bayesian model to determine the model uncertainty of a critical horizontal gradient model for piping for dikes, such a Lane and Bligh. A Bayesian model is needed for two reasons. First, there is a large overlap in cases that failed and survived. Second, the evidence of the failed cases is limited .The model consists of a...

Influence of Monitoring on Investment Planning of Flood Defence Systems

Many flood defences in the Netherlands will have to be reinforced in the coming decades. Many dikes do not fulfill the safety standard due to geotechnical failure modes, largely due to epistemic, reducible uncertainties. . The Value of Information is a measure to indicate beforehand whether an investment towards reducing epistemic uncertainty is...

Safety standards of flood defenses

Current design codes like the Eurocode use safety or reliability classes to assign target reliabilities to different types of structures or structural members according to the potential consequences of failure. That, in essence, is a risk-based criterion. A wide range of structures is designed with such codes, and distinction is made between...

Analysis and influence of uncertainties on the reliability of flood defence systems

Uncertainties are introduced in probabilistic risk analysis when we deal with parameters that are not deterministic (exactly known) but that are unknown instead, hence uncertain. This report describes how uncertainties influence the reliability of flood defence systems. The purpose of the study is to identify all uncertainties that influence the...