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Mey, A. (author), Loog, M. (author)We investigate to which extent one can recover class probabilities within the empirical risk minimization (ERM) paradigm. We extend existing results and emphasize the tight relations between empirical risk minimization and class probability estimation. Following previous literature on excess risk bounds and proper scoring rules, we derive a...conference paper 2021
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Frey, Daniel D. (author), Lin, Yiben (author), Heijnen, P.W. (author)This paper develops theoretical foundations for extending Gauss-Hermite quadrature to robust design with computer experiments. When the proposed method is applied with m noise variables, the method requires 4m + 1 function evaluations. For situations in which the polynomial response is separable, this paper proves that the method gives exact...journal article 2021
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Güdük, N. (author), De La Varga, Miguel (author), Kaukolinna, Janne (author), Wellmann, Florian (author)Structural geological models are widely used to represent relevant geological interfaces and property distributions in the subsurface. Considering the inherent uncertainty of these models, the non-uniqueness of geophysical inverse problems, and the growing availability of data, there is a need for methods that integrate different types of...journal article 2021
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Igea, Felipe (author), Chatzis, Manolis N. (author), Cicirello, A. (author)Structural Health Monitoring uses data collected from sensors placed on structures to determine their operating condition and whether maintenance is required. Often, optimal sensor placement strategies are used to find the optimal locations for the identification of their modal properties, structural parameters and/or abnormal behaviours under...conference paper 2021
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Graas, R. (author), Sun, Junzi (author), Hoekstra, J.M. (author)Several initiatives are developed to shift the current paradigm in Air Traffic Management from the tactical-based approach to more strategic-based coordination of flights. This transformation of the ATM system relies on the improvement of predictive models for the 4D flight trajectories. A variety of performance-based and data-driven approaches...conference paper 2021
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Mészáros, L. (author), van der Meulen, F.H. (author), Jongbloed, G. (author), El Serafy, G.Y.H. (author)Spring phytoplankton blooms in the southern North Sea substantially contribute to annual primary production and largely influence food web dynamics. Studying long-term changes in spring bloom dynamics is therefore crucial for understanding future climate responses and predicting implications on the marine ecosystem. This paper aims to study...journal article 2021
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Groen, D. (author), Arabnejad, H. (author), Jancauskas, V. (author), Edeling, W. N. (author), Jansson, F.R. (author), Richardson, R. A. (author), Lakhlili, J. (author), Veen, L. (author), Bosak, B. (author)We present the VECMA toolkit (VECMAtk), a flexible software environment for single and multiscale simulations that introduces directly applicable and reusable procedures for verification, validation (V&V), sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty quantication (UQ). It enables users to verify key aspects of their applications,...journal article 2021
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Santanoceto, M. (author), Tiberga, M. (author), Perko, Z. (author), Dulla, Sandra (author), Lathouwers, D. (author)In this work, we present the results of a preliminary uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis study of the Molten Salt Fast Reactor (MSFR) behavior at steady-state performed by applying a non-intrusive Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) approach. An in-house high-fidelity multi-physics simulation tool is used as reactor reference...journal article 2021
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Jansson, F.R. (author), Edeling, Wouter (author), Attema, Jisk (author), Crommelin, Daan (author)In this study, we investigate uncertainties in a large eddy simulation of the atmosphere, employing modern uncertainty quantification methods that have hardly been used yet in this context. When analysing the uncertainty of model results, one can distinguish between uncertainty related to physical parameters whose values are not exactly known...journal article 2021
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Adatrao, S. (author), Bertone, M. (author), Sciacchitano, A. (author)A novel approach is devised for the quantification of systematic uncertainty due to peak locking in particle image velocimetry (PIV), which also leads to correction of the peak-locking errors. The approach, applicable to statistical flow properties such as time-averaged velocity and Reynolds stresses, relies on image recordings with multiple...journal article 2021
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Peng, Tian (author), Nogal Macho, M. (author), Casas, Joan R. (author), Turmo, Jose (author)The inverse problem of structural system identification is prone to ill‐conditioning issues; thus, uniqueness and stability cannot be guaranteed. This issue tends to amplify the error propagation of both the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties, where aleatory uncertainty is related to the accuracy and the quality of sensors. The analysis of...journal article 2021
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Hanea, Anca M. (author), Hemming, Victoria (author), Nane, G.F. (author)Expert elicitation is deployed when data are absent or uninformative and critical decisions must be made. In designing an expert elicitation, most practitioners seek to achieve best practice while balancing practical constraints. The choices made influence the required time and effort investment, the quality of the elicited data, experts’...journal article 2021
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Wang, Z. (author), Almeida, José Humberto S. (author), St-Pierre, Luc (author), Wang, Zhonglai (author), Castro, Saullo G.P. (author)A reliability-based optimization framework is introduced and used to design filament-wound cylindrical shells with variable angle tow. Seven design cases are investigated to enable a comparison between constant-stiffness and variable angle tow designs, also considering effects of thickness variation created due to overlapping tow paths,...journal article 2020
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Chuang, Jia Shian (author)This research aims to develop a method to create a wind farm layout that is robust against the uncertainty source, the inter-year variation of Weibull parameters and wind direction sector probabilities. A wind farm layout optimisation problem under uncertainty corresponds to optimisation under uncertainty (OUU), which is computationally...master thesis 2020
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Alsayyari, F.S. (author)Large-scale complex systems require high-fidelity models to capture the dynamics of the system accurately. For example, models of nuclear reactors capture multiphysics interactions (e.g., radiation transport, thermodynamics, heat transfer, and fluid mechanics) occurring at various scales of time (prompt neutrons to burn-up calculations) and...doctoral thesis 2020
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Bills, Liam (author)The validation of SU2 for modelling classical non-ideal compressible fluid dynamics will advance the research into efficient ORC turbomachinery design. This study determines the validity of the two-dimensional flow solver for predicting the isentropic expansion of Siloxane MM through a converging-diverging nozzle using...master thesis 2020
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Scudelari De Macedo, Luiz Francisco (author)The Finite Element Method possess the intrinsic characteristic that, due to the assumptions made for the parameters of the problem being modelled, a deterministic uncertainty on the obtained results is always present. This research makes use of basic statistical concepts to obtain reference values for a possible quantification of this...master thesis 2020
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Alsayyari, F.S. (author), Tiberga, M. (author), Perko, Z. (author), Lathouwers, D. (author), Kloosterman, J.L. (author)We use a novel nonintrusive adaptive Reduced Order Modeling method to build a reduced model for a molten salt reactor system. Our approach is based on Proper Orthogonal Decomposition combined with locally adaptive sparse grids. Our reduced model captures the effect of 27 model parameters on k<sub>eff</sub> of the system and the spatial...journal article 2020
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Sarma, R. (author), Dwight, R.P. (author), Viré, A.C. (author)Downwind wind turbine blades are subjected to tower wake forcing at every rotation, which can lead to structural fatigue. Accurate characterisation of the unsteady aeroelastic forces in the blade design phase requires detailed representation of the aerodynamics, leading to computationally expensive simulation codes, which lead to intractable...journal article 2020
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Mészáros, L. (author), van der Meulen, F.H. (author), Jongbloed, G. (author), El Serafy, G.Y.H. (author)Available climate change projections, which can be used for quantifying future changes in marine and coastal ecosystems, usually consist of a few scenarios. Studies addressing ecological impacts of climate change often make use of a low- (RCP2.6), moderate- (RCP4.5) or high climate scenario (RCP8.5), without taking into account further...journal article 2020