A Graph-based, Probabilistic Framework for Novel Aerospace Technology Evaluation and Selection

Technology selection is ubiquitous in all manners of complex systems engineering, design and everyday business operations. Technologies are often complex entities shrouded in uncertainty, assumptions and interpretation. Therefore, quantifying their effect (i.e. outcome) becomes challenging for several reasons. First, as simulations may not be...

Probabilistic scenario-based decision making for water resources planning and management

Uncertainty is an unavoidable part of decision making. Decisions always have to be made before perfect knowledge on their consequences is known. However, there is no ‘perfect knowledge’ in hindsight. To research uncertainty and take actions proactively becomes the challenge to scientists and decision makers. In water resources planning and...

TIME TO CHANGE: The foreseeable future for water planning

The decisions people make, and the actions they take, depend on how they conceptualize and experience time. This fundamental and influential factor is seldom acknowledged, little understood, and rarely considered explicitly in planning; be that for the material systems or the knowledge systems in the water sector. The objectives of the research...

The Weakest Link: Spatial Variability in the Piping Failure Mechanism of Dikes

Piping is an important failure mechanism of flood defense structures. A dike fails due to piping when a head difference causes first the uplift of an inland blanket layer, and subsequently soil erosion due to a ground water flow. Spatial variability of subsoil parameters causes the probability of piping failure to increase, often to unacceptable...

Logistics Concept Development in Multi-Actor Environments

Logistics has become a field of growing interest for public policy making over recent decades. Logistics has a great impact on society. Due to these societal impacts there is a need for a more explicit intervention by governmental policies. This development demonstrates that the growing importance of transition and innovation in logistic...

Decisioneering in Nuclear Energy Systems: A Real Option View

Financial- and Energy markets have one predominant characteristic in common: A large degree of uncertainty that drives the value of an investment in them. The thesis criticises the poor decision making support for investments into new generation capacity on base of pure cost comparison and NPV evaluations that is still prevalent in academic...

Intelligent Belt Conveyor Monitoring and Control

Belt conveyors have been used worldwide in continuous material transport for about 250 years. Traditional inspection and monitoring of large-scale belt conveyors focus on individual critical components and response to catastrophic system failures. To prevent operational problems caused by the lack of experience of maintenance personnel, the...

Deciding about Design Quality: Value judgements and decision making in the selection of architects by public clients under European tendering regulations

In the past few years the image of tender procedures in which Dutch public clients selected an architect has been dominated by distressing newspaper headlines. Architects fear that the current tender culture will harm the quality of our built environment due to a potential lack of diversity, creativity and innovation in architectural design. Due...

Workflow Driven Decision Support Systems: A case of an intra-operative visualization system for surgeons

Inadequate visualization during Minimally Invasive Surgeries (MIS) has led several technology research labs to develop decision support systems such as Intra-operative Visualization Systems (IVS). IVS focuses on providing surgeons with real-time imaging support to improve task visualization and navigation. Though exciting, this emerging field...

Knowingly taking risk: Investment decision making in real estate development

Knowingly taking risk is essential to the success of the real estate development business. Investing in real estate development projects, which are characterised by complexity and uncertainty, implies that high risks are taken. Interestingly, little is known about how real estate development organisations have incorporated the skills and...

Effect of Spatial Variability on Maintenance and Repair Decisions for Concrete Structures

Due to the increasingly number of elder and deteriorating structures, maintenance is becoming a serious and more complex problem in most of the countries. A lot of studies have been carried out in this area for years. However, the fact that a lot of parameters show spatial random variability, which is linked with dependencies on temperature, w/c...

Safety Analysis of Transport Corridors