We present an approach to simulate climate and energy policy for the EU, using a flexible and modular agent-based modelling approach and a toolbox, called the Energy Modelling Laboratory (EMLab). The paper shortly reviews core challenges and approaches for modelling climate and energy policy in light of the energy transition. Afterwards, we present an agent-based model of investment in power generation that has addressed a variety of European energy policy questions. We describe the development of a flexible model core as well as modules on carbon and renewables policies, capacity mechanisms, investment behaviour and representation of intermittent renewables. We present an overview of modelling results, ongoing projects, a case study on current reforms of the EU ETS, and we show their relevance in the EU context.

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The effectiveness of a capacity market is analyzed by simulating three conditions that may cause suboptimal investment in the electricity generation: imperfect information and uncertainty; declining demand shocks resulting in load loss; and a growing share of renewable energy sources in the generation portfolio. Implementation of a capacity market can improve supply adequacy and reduce consumer costs. It mainly leads to more investment in low-cost peak generation units. If the administratively determined reserve margin is high enough, the security of supply is not significantly affected by uncertainties or demand shocks. A capacity market is found to be more effective than a strategic reserve for ensuring reliability.

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We analyze the effectiveness of a forward capacity market (FCM) with long-term contracts in an electricity market in the presence of a growing share of renewable energy. An agent-based model is used for this analysis. Capacity markets can compensate for the deteriorating incentive to invest in controllable power plants when the share of variable renewable energy sources grows, but may create volatile prices themselves. Capacity markets with long-term contracts have been developed, e.g. in the UK, to stabilize capacity prices. In our analysis, a FCM is effective in providing the required adequacy level and leads to lower cost to consumers and more stable capacity prices, as compared to a yearly capacity market. In case of a demand shock, a FCM may develop an investment cycle, but it still maintains security of supply. Its main effect on the power plant portfolio is more investment in peak plant.

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The cross-border effects of a capacity market and a strategic reserve in interconnected electricity markets are modeled using an agent-based modeling methodology. Both capacity mechanisms improve the security of supply and reduce consumer costs. Our results indicate that interconnections do not affect the effectiveness of a capacity market, while a strategic reserve is affected negatively. The neighboring zone may free ride on the security of supply provided by the zone implementing a capacity mechanism. However, a capacity market causes crowding out of generators in the energy-only zone. A strategic reserve implemented by this region could aid in mitigating this risk.

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The push for clean energy has caused a rapid growth of renewables in the electricity supply mix of the EU. Although one would assume that the impact of these technologies is entirely positive, recent research and experience indicate that there is reason for concern namely regarding the security of supply. In this context, the concern is how renewable energy sources (RES) affect the business case of conventional power generation. In response to this concern, capacity mechanisms are being considered or have already been implemented by various member states of the EU. However, in a highly interconnected electricity system, such as the one in Europe, there appears to be a risk that the uncoordinated implementation of capacity mechanisms may cause unintended cross-border effects. This research explored the performance of various capacity mechanisms in an electricity system with a strong growth in the portfolio share of variable renewable energy sources (RES). The cross-border effects of implementing various capacity mechanisms in an interconnected power system were also analyzed. In this research, two capacity mechanisms, namely a strategic reserve and a capacity market, were modeled as extensions to the EMLab-Generation agent-based model. Furthermore, two variations of a capacity market were analyzed. The first was a yearly capacity market design and the second was a forward capacity market with long term contracts. A survey of experts on the US capacity markets supplemented the modeling work with practical insights.@en

We present a survey of US capacity market experts with the purpose of drawing lessons for the EU. Of the respondents, 41% advised EU member states against implementing capacity markets, while the remaining were neutral or provided suggestions for improving capacity markets. Cross-border effects are currently not a concern but may become so in the future. Imports may dampen prices in a capacity market, but neighbouring markets may also experience pressure to implement a capacity market. The capacity markets in the USA were believed to have achieved their goals with respect to reliability, but in an economically inefficient manner.@en

To ensure sufficient investment in electricity generation capacity, mechanisms such as strategic reserves are being considered or already implemented. We analyze the effectiveness of a strategic reserve in the presence of a growing portfolio share of renewable energy sources (RES) with EMLab-Generation, an agent-based electricity market model. A strategic reserve can stabilize investment, but within limits. Uncertainty regarding future demand may cause the market to become instable, potentially leading to periods with very high electricity prices. In the presence of a large share of variable renewable energy sources, the reserve design should be adjusted or replaced by an alternative capacity mechanism.

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