A chain is never stronger than its weakest link. This insight is the basis for the calculation method to determine the f lood probabilities of dike ring areas in the Netherlands. The TAW can already formulate first recommendations on research and policy making. This does not imply that the research on 'Flood risks: a study on probabilities and consequences' is already finalised. This study concentrates on probabilities and consequences. Developing a method to estimate consequences of f looding is the next step of the TAW. Then it also will be possible to estimate the costs and benefits of the alternative measures