As goals are set to increase the share of renewable energy production within the province of Overijssel, the Netherlands, the project group Groen Gas Salland is founded and has taken the initiative to explore the opportunities of green gas production through a biogas infrastructure within the region of Salland. Since within the region of Salland (intensive) livestock farming is practised, it is assumed that the utilisation of manure for the production of green gas by means of the anaerobic digestion process has a considerable potential. To comprehend whether the manure can be made available for energy production, it is necessary to learn how manure is currently used and valued by the local farmers within Salland. Due to intensive livestock farming the manure production exceeds the local demand for manure-based fertilisers, which is considered a problem as this (local) abundance of manure urges for a manure distribution system of which the costs are high. Furthermore, circumstances within the (intensive) livestock farming sector are changing especially due to the amendment of policies that monitor farming activities. Changes within these institutional rules and especially the perceptions that these changes occur unpredictably, affect the decision making of local farmers and will influence the condition that underlie the manure distribution system. In order to explore the potential for manure-based energy within this complex system, we developed an agent-based model by means of the MAIA framework. Based on our research we found that the energy potential is low due to several related causes. A clear expectation of what will be gained is lacking due to uncertainties about both the amount of subsidy that will be granted and the order of the specific technology costs. Furthermore, since a sufficient production capacity is required, many small-scale to middle-scale farms will not consider manure-based energy production. A considerable investment capital is required as well, this puts a lot of pressure upon the farmers as they often experience at the same time poor financial situations and ongoing changes in the policies. We state that farmers do not obtain a clear benefit concerning the production of manure-based energy as current issues with respect to the abundance of manure are not solved and meanwhile the produced digestate, almost identical in volume and composition to manure, had to find its way back to the manure distribution system. Although cooperation between farmers should not be taken for granted, we found in case farmers do cooperate, the potential for manure-based energy production to be highly increased. In order to increase the potential, we recommend to create a clear benefit from a farmer's point of view, increase their understanding with respect to manure-based energy and reduce institutional barriers, especially with respect to regulations that control subsidy.