Domino effects are a complex phenomenon of accident escalation with high uncertainty, which could lead to catastrophic consequences. Predicting the probability of domino effects presents a great challenge in the field of process safety. In multi-level domino chains, synergistic effects of accidents would further raise the complexity of probability prediction since escalation vectors emitted from those accidents may be coupled. In this paper, four categories of synergistic effects are classified according to the type of accidents and their place on the domino accident sequence. Subsequently, specific models for estimating escalation probability under different synergistic accident scenarios are proposed based on the widely-used probit models, allowing the analysis of the coupling effects of escalation vectors. A probability prediction method for domino chains is further developed using Bayesian Network. The application of the developed method is demonstrated by a case study, and the domino probability is estimated accounting for the synergistic effects and all possible accident scenarios. The key units for promoting accident propagation are further identified through posterior probability analysis. The method would be helpful for domino risk assessment and management of any chemical industrial area.

@en

Liquid storage tanks play a vital role in the modern chemical process industry (CPI). The strong ground motion caused by large-scale earthquakes may easily impose severe structural damage on liquid storage tanks, leading to a series of catastrophic cascaded events. The seismic damage estimation of liquid storage tanks is a challenging problem, as the fluid-structure interaction exhibits extremely complicated and non-stationary response behavior. This study develops a novel data-driven methodology to estimate the seismic damage state probability distribution of liquid storage tanks in the contexts of label ambiguity and data imbalance. With the support of the advanced deep learning framework, synthetic oversampling methods, and label enhancement techniques, a hybrid deep belief network-based label distribution learning system (HDBN-LDLS) is proposed for probability distribution learning. The proposed HDBN-LDLS is evaluated on the widely used ALA database. Simulation results indicate that HDBN-LDLS can achieve a balanced estimation for all damage states while maintaining sufficient robustness to cope with label ambiguity. The reliability of the obtained data-driven model is validated by a damaged tank in the 2006 Silakhor earthquake. For practical applications, a more natural way to estimate a seismic damaged tank is to assign a membership degree to each possible damage state. The proposed methodology can quickly obtain the seismic damage state probability curves of a specific liquid storage tank, which can be used to support quantitative risk assessment and seismic design.@en

In chemical industrial areas, technological accidents triggered by natural events (Natech events) may escalate. Complex cascading multi-hazard scenarios with high uncertainties may be caused. Resilience is an essential property of a system to withstand and recover from disruptive events. The present study focuses on the change of the resilience level due to (possible) interactions between cascading hazards, chemical installations and safety barriers during the dynamic evolution of fire escalations triggered by a natural hazard (certain cascading multi-hazard scenarios). A quantitative resilience assessment method is developed to this end. The state transition of a system facing accidents in the context of resilience is explored. Moreover, the uncertainties accompanying an accident evolution are quantified using a Dynamic Bayesian Network, allowing a detailed analysis of the system performance in different time steps. System resilience is measured as a time-dependent function with respect to the change of system performance. The applicability of the proposed methodology is demonstrated by a case study, and the effects of different configurations of safety barriers on improving resilience are discussed. The results are valuable to support disaster prevention within chemical industrial areas.@en

Elevation resolution is an important indicator in tomographic SAR imaging as it represents the ability to discriminate closed targets in elevation. In general, the elevation resolution is proportional to the length of the elevation aperture. However, as the elevation aperture increases, the geometric consistency of the image will undesirably deteriorate and hence fails the image coregistration approach required by the traditional super-resolution tomographic imaging. In this paper, a new super-resolution tomographic imaging method is proposed to overcome the inconsistency problem caused by the large elevation aperture. The core strategy is to get rid of two-dimensional image coregistration by applying a three-dimensional (3D) back projection like imaging manner: the 3D space is firstly divided into a 3D imaging grid, each of which is individually imaged via compressive sensing for super-resolution. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is evaluated by both computer simulations and real P-band UAV SAR data.

@en

Industrial accidents triggered by natural disasters (Natech events) pose huge threats to chemical clusters. Flood is a significant cause of Natech events, the interactions between flood and chemical installations may lead to complex accident scenarios. However, the chemical clusters are often not well prepared for flood Natech events due to the lack of guidance on how to implement prevention and mitigation measures. In this paper, the characteristics of flood Natech events are firstly discussed, which provide a clear understanding of accident evolution. Based on the review of several Chinese standards related to flood prevention in chemical clusters, corresponding requirements are summarized. The requirements mainly focus on the planning and design stages. To cope with flood Natech events in a long-term vision, a comprehensive safety framework for chemical clusters is proposed in this article considering a resilient viewpoint, in which different roles of government, chemical cluster, and chemical plant are discussed. Moreover, three sub-models are divided to manage safety measures before, during, and after accidents, contributing to improving the resisting ability, adaptability, and recoverability of chemical clusters to flood Natech events, respectively.@en

A domino effect triggered by a natural event (a so-called Natech domino effect) represents a typical high-impact low-probability (HILP) event, which may lead to catastrophic consequences. The presence of safety barriers could have an impact on the effects by impeding propagation patterns and mitigating potential consequences. However, coordinating and maintaining safety measures to establish an effective barrier system against Natech domino effects is complicated. In this paper, the concept of what constitutes a safety barrier and the principles of barrier management are reviewed. Subsequently, the complex phenomenon of Natech domino effects is studied at the individual installation level, while the propagation pattern is explored at the system level. The application of safety barriers is discussed with the aim of coping with potential Natech domino effects. A systematic framework of barrier management is developed to establish and improve the barrier system in the whole cycle (design & construction, operation, accident, recovery & improvement) of a chemical industrial area. The challenges are discussed to highlight future study needs.@en

Recently, frequency-modulated continuous-wave (FMCW) radar-based hand gesture recognition (HGR) using deep learning has achieved favorable performance. However, many existing methods use extracted features separately, i.e., using one of the range, Doppler, azimuth, or elevation angle information, or a combination of any two, to train convolutional neural networks (CNNs), which ignore the interrelation among the 5-D time-varying-range-Doppler-azimuth-elevation feature space. Although there have been methods using the 5-D information, their mining of the interrelation among the 5-D feature space is not sufficient, and there is still room for improvements. This article proposes a new processing scheme of HGR based on 5-D feature cubes that are jointly encoded by a 3-D fast Fourier transform (3-D-FFT)-based method. Then, a CNN is proposed by building two novel blocks, i.e., the spatiotemporal deformable convolution (STDC) block and the adaptive spatiotemporal context-aware convolution (ASTCAC) block. Concretely, STDC is designed to cope with hand gestures' large spatiotemporal geometric transformations in the 5-D feature space. Moreover, ASTCAC is designed for modeling long-distance global relationships, e.g., relationships between pixels of the feature at the upper left corner and lower right corner, and exploring the global spatiotemporal context, in order to enhance the target feature representation and suppress interference. Finally, our presented method is verified on a large radar dataset, including 19 760 sets of 16 common hand gestures, collected by 19 subjects. Our method obtains a recognition rate of 99.53% on the validation dataset and that of 97.22% on the test dataset, which is significantly better than state-of-the-art methods.

@en

Flood events impose great distress on chemical industrial areas, since they may cause Natech accidents involving multiple units. Furthermore, escalation vectors exerted by major accidents can trigger knock-on events, so-called domino effects, causing very severe consequences. In the present study, a methodology is proposed to include domino effects triggered by floods in a quantitative risk assessment, by addressing the frequency assessment of flood-induced domino scenarios. A comprehensive procedure is developed, combining the fragility model for unit damage due to floods, probability estimation for domino escalation, and combinatorial analysis for overall scenarios. Moreover, the flow interference due to the layout of chemical industrial areas is explored to calculate the damage probability more accurately. The methodology has been demonstrated by a case study, the changes in risk indexes and damage zones due to Natech domino effects are discussed. The results show that the overall risk significantly increases with respect to conventional scenarios when considering flood-induced Natech events and domino effects, evidencing the importance of risk analysis of Natech-related domino effects. Finally, some prevention measures have been proposed for chemical industrial areas to make them more resilient and safer when it comes to floods.

@en

The increasing demand for chemical products has driven the construction and development of chemical industrial areas, or so-called 'chemical industrial parks' (CIPs), but this has intrinsically raised the risk of major accidents. Therefore, it is significant and urgent to summarize the state of art and research needs in the field of CIP safety. In this paper, a keyword co-occurrence analysis of 116 scientific articles was conducted to support the classification of research topics in this field, then an overview of those research topics was presented to investigate the evolution of safety research with respect to CIPs. Specifically, the way that safety assessments are conducted, as well as how safety management and safety technology in such areas are classified and investigated, followed by detailed descriptions of representative methods and their contributions to CIP safety, are discussed. An integrated safety framework for CIPs is proposed to organize safety approaches and measures systematically. Based on the classification and analysis of studies on management, assessment, and technology related to CIP safety, the research trends and future directions and challenges are discussed and outlined. Those results are useful for improving theoretical method and industrial strategies, and can advance the safety and sustainability development of CIPs.

@en

Domino effects are typically high impact low probability (HILP) accidents, whereby escalation effects triggered by fires are most frequent. The evolution of fire-related domino effects depends on synergistic effects and the performance of safety barriers, but those factors usually are time-dependent. In the present study, a methodology is developed to provide more accurate probabilities related to domino effects, by considering the temporal evolution of escalation vectors caused by time-dependent factors. The Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) approach is applied both to model the spatial-temporal propagation pattern of domino effects and to estimate the dynamic probabilities of domino chains. The methodology is illustrated with a case study to determine the dynamic aspect of the probabilities of domino effects considering the impact of add-on (active and passive) safety barriers and taking into account synergistic effects. The critical units for facilitating domino propagation have been identified by the analysis of posterior probabilities, and further validated using graph theory. The methodology will be helpful for risk management and emergency decision-making of any chemical industrial area.

@en